海啸传播模型与数值模拟研究进展

海啸在浅水大陆架的传播问题由于其非线性作用和浅水效应而变得十分复杂,然而目前成熟的海啸传播理论及数值模拟结果在这方面与实际并不一致.本文比较分析了可用来模拟大陆架海啸传播的浅水波模型和数值方法,并提出对我国东海陆架边缘可能发生的近海海啸需要开展数值试验研究.     

海啸波近岸共振响应的数值模拟及分析

应用有限差分方法求解非线性浅水长波方程,建立了海啸波产生和传播的二维数值模型;对太平洋地震引起的夏威夷群岛海啸波进行模拟,并将模拟结果和测站实测值进行比较,验证了模型的正确性。利用快速傅里叶变换对数值模拟结果进行谱分析,得到整个计算区域的能量谱分布,并给出了发生能量聚集的位置及相应的谱峰周期。讨论了海啸波传播到近岸时可能产生的共振响应现象,发现海啸波和近岸的共振响应不仅与近岸复杂地形有关,还与海啸波传播到近岸时的波浪入射方向有关。     

2022年1月15日汤加火山海啸对中国沿海的影响分析

2022年1月15日12:15(北京时间),汤加附近的洪阿-汤加-洪阿哈派(Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha′apai)火山喷发,造成了剧烈的气压扰动并激发了大气兰姆波,后者通过海气界面引发了胁振水波.胁振波与兰姆波以约306m/s的平均速度在洋盆传播,自由海啸波以速度较慢的重力波速度跟随其后.中国沿岸26个验潮站水位显示,台湾岛东部验潮站在15日约20:00记录到了与大气兰姆波几乎同时到达的胁振波;然而,大陆验潮站在兰姆波到达至少2h之后,才监测到海啸波.理论分析和数值试验表明,在胁振波从琉球群岛和吕宋海峡外侧入射大陆沿海的过程中,面对逐渐变浅且宽广的陆架,胁振波逐渐与兰姆波相位分离,演变成了浅水重力波.后续到达的自由海啸波与演变的浅水重力波叠加,造成中国沿海超过36h的水位波动.台湾岛东部监测到的最大波幅为乌石站44cm,大陆东部沿海和华南沿海最大波幅分别为石浦站22cm和珠海站13cm.采用谱方法对波能进行分析,结果显示,影响台湾岛东部的海啸主成分为自由海啸波;而对大陆沿海而言,演变的重力波与自由海啸波能量几乎相当,这是由于前者周期更长,能量更加不易耗散,浅水效应也更加显...     

2011年3月11日日本地震海啸越洋传播及对中国影响的数值分析

北京时间2011年3月11日13时46分(05:46 UTC)日本东北部近海(38.3°N,142.4°E)发生M_w9.0级特大地震,此次地震的强度为日本近1200a来最强.随后环太平洋的数十个国家和地区的验潮站和海啸监测浮标均监测到了强震引发的越洋海啸,海啸奔袭23 h到达南美洲的智利沿岸;此次海啸除了对近场的日本东北部沿岸地区造成了巨大灾害,还对太平洋东岸的部分国家和地区造成了一定程度的影响.地震发生4 h后海啸波到达我国台湾东部沿海,6~8 h海啸波到达我国大陆东南沿海,受此影响我国发布了第一份海啸蓝色警报.本文利用海啸数值模型对此次地震海啸的产生、越洋传播过程进行了数值模拟,给出了海啸波能量在我国近海及泛太平洋区域分布特征;同时重点模拟分析了海啸波在日本及中国近海传播的波动特征,模拟结果与观测数据吻合良好.最后通过对数值模拟结果的分析,阐述了此次海啸对中国的影响,给出了潜在的日本地震海啸对中国的风险估计.     

东海潜在地震海啸特点

主要从东海发生地震海啸的可能性分析,海啸传播过程的特点以及发生概率几个方面重点阐述讨论了东海地震海啸的一些特性,并分析了地震海啸在东海发生的概率及其特点。得出东海潜在海啸源区主要位于冲绳海槽内,数值模拟海啸在东海的传播过程方程应采用球坐标系下的线性方程,对于近岸的传播包括上岸部分的研究应该采用笛卡儿坐标系下的非线性方程,并且要考虑底部摩擦等项的对波浪的衰减作用。     

冲绳海槽地震海啸的数值试验研究

在分析东海水深与地震情况基础上,我们认为冲绳海槽地震具有引发海啸的条件,并对该区海啸传播过程采用单侧破裂方式的有限移动源模型和高阶Boussinesq方程做了一维有限差分法数值模拟,给出了海啸传播过程波形和速度变化图.我们从模拟结果得到初步结论:冲绳海槽特大地震海啸传播到上海近海在5小时后,近海波高在几十厘米范围内.     

利用海啸数值模拟结果进行海底地震有限断层模型验证

基于地震有限断层模型进行海啸的数值模拟通常被用来估计海啸的到时、 波高等, 另一方面, 海啸数值模拟的结果也可以作为限定条件用来考察同一地震的不同断层模型之间的相对合理性。 采用国际上各地震研究机构在震后各自得出的不同的有限断层模型作为海啸源, 使用基于二维浅水波方程的海啸传播模型对2011年日本东北地震海啸的传播过程进行模拟, 以海啸模拟所得到的沿岸浪高分布、 平均波高、 最大波高等与实际观测值相比较, 进而判断由各有限断层模型所计算得到的海啸中哪个结果与实际的海啸情况更为符合, 由此推断断层模型的相对合理性。     

利用PETSc和FEPG编制海啸数值模拟程序的研究

海啸的数值模拟是海啸研究的一个重要领域, 它对于帮助理解海啸的基本物理特性和预防减灾具有重要意义。 海啸数值模拟程序的编制是一项繁杂的工作, 该文介绍了利用两种功能强大的通用软件(PETSc和FEPG)来进行海啸数值模拟程序编写的研究。 PETSc和FEPG采用有限差分、 有限元、 有限体积等多种离散方法, 可以对数值问题给出稳定的求解。 该文采用了直角坐标系下的非线性浅水波方程作为海啸波传播的控制方程进行离散求解, 并将其结果与TUNAMI N1模型进行了比较, 表明这两种方法方便而且有效。     

地震海啸的激发与传播

本文围绕海啸的激发和传播两个方面简述了有限矩形源产生的地表形变场、浅水波浪理论和Boussinesq方程等基本理论,讨论了震源参数对海啸传播的影响,比较分析了海啸的数值模拟方法,介绍了我国地震海啸的研究进展等。     

港湾中海啸流的模拟及其时空演变特征对输入条件不确定性的响应分析

一直以来,海啸波特征作为表征海啸潜在破坏性的参数指标得到了广泛应用,特别是针对近场极端海啸事件造成的灾害来说,这种表征具有较好的适用性.然而总结分析历史海啸事件造成的损失发现：在远场近岸及港湾系统中,海啸诱导的强流却是造成损失的主要原因.陆架或港湾振荡导致海啸波幅快速升降诱发强流,可能促使港工设施受到威胁及损害,进而对海啸预警服务及海事应急管理提出了新的挑战.因此,全面理解与评估海啸在港湾中诱发的灾害特征,探索港湾中海啸流的数值模拟方法,发展针对港湾尺度的海啸预警服务指导产品尤为迫切.受限于海啸流验证数据的缺乏及准确模拟海啸流技术方法的诸多不确定性,大部分海啸数值模拟研究工作主要是针对水位特征的研究及验证,可能导致对港湾中海啸灾害危险性认识的曲解与低估.本研究基于非线性浅水方程,针对夏威夷群岛三个典型港湾建立了精细化海啸数值模型（空间分辨率达到10 m）,并联合有限断层破裂模型计算分析了日本东北地震海啸在三个港湾及其邻近区域的海啸特征,波、流计算结果与实测结果吻合较好,精细化的海啸港湾模型模拟结果可信.模拟发现港湾中较小的波幅,同样可以产生强流.综合分析日本东北地震海啸波、流特征对输入条件不确定性的响应结果发现：港湾中海啸波-流能量的空间分布特征差异较大,这与港湾系统中海啸波的驻波特性相关;相比海啸波幅空间特征,海啸流特征具有更强的空间敏感性;海啸流时空分布特征对输入条件的不确定性响应比海啸波幅对这些不确定性的响应更强,海啸流的模拟与预报更有挑战性;不确定性对海啸流计算精度的影响会进一步传导放大港湾海啸流危险性的评估及对港工设施产生的应力作用的误差,合理的输入条件对海啸流的精确模拟至关重要.最后,希望通过本文的研究可以从海啸波-流特征角度更加全面认识近岸海啸灾害特征,拓展海啸预警服务的广度与深度,从而为灾害应急管理部门提供更加科学合理的辅助决策产品.     

Organic geochemical studies of sinking particulate material in China sea area(I)

Sinking particulate material collected from Nansha Yongshu reef lagoon and the continental shelf of the East China Sea by sediment traps has been analyzed and studied for the first time using organic geochemical method. The results show that about half of the sinking particulate organic matter in the two study areas are consumed before reaching the depth of 5 m to the sea floor and the degree of this consumption in Yongshu reef lagoon is larger than that in the continental shelf of the East China Sea. The distributions of hydrocarbons and fatty acids indicate that the minor difference of biological sources of sinking particulate organic matter exists between Yongshu reef lagoon and the continental shelf of the East China Sea, but they mainly come from marine plankton. Stronger biological and biochemical transformations of sinking particulate organic matter are also observed and the intensity of this transformation in Yongshu reef lagoon is greater than that in the continental shelf of the East China Sea. It is found that the occurrence of C₂₅ highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) diene may be related to the composition of diatom species.     

应用重力资源估算东海冲绳海槽地壳厚度

利用东海地区的重力资源，并参考在该地区进行的地震测深结果，应用线性公式估算了研究区的地壳厚度，分析了研究区地壳结构特征，根据与中国东部地球物理场、地壳结构的对比，指出东海大陆架地区应是中国大陆的自然延伸，对冲绳海槽的地壳性质进行了探讨，指出冲绳海槽应该为东海大陆架的自然终结。     

地震海啸在东海大陆架上传播过程的数值模拟研究

在东海潜在震源区冲绳海槽假定了五个震源点,根据Steven地震海啸地震参数经验值作为初始条件,分别考虑6.5、7.0、7.5、8.0、8.5、9.0级地震条件下的30个震例,采用数值模拟的方法,对海啸在东海传播过程进行情境分析,特别是对上海沿岸地区可能会遭受的海啸灾害做了较为精细的研究.结果发现:小于8.0级的震例对上海地区几乎不会造成影响;8.0级震例只有最北端震源点震例会对上海地区有明显影响;8.5级以及9.0级震级基本上均会对上海沿岸地区造成较大的影响.特别是冲绳海槽北段9.0级震例可能会对上海沿岸局部地区造成危害,最大波高可达3.9m.     

Carbon pools and fluxes in the China Seas and adjacent oceans

The China Seas include the South China Sea, East China Sea, Yellow Sea, and Bohai Sea. Located off the Northwestern Pacific margin, covering 4700000 km~2 from tropical to northern temperate zones, and including a variety of continental margins/basins and depths, the China Seas provide typical cases for carbon budget studies. The South China Sea being a deep basin and part of the Western Pacific Warm Pool is characterized by oceanic features; the East China Sea with a wide continental shelf, enormous terrestrial discharges and open margins to the West Pacific, is featured by strong cross-shelf materials transport; the Yellow Sea is featured by the confluence of cold and warm waters; and the Bohai Sea is a shallow semiclosed gulf with strong impacts of human activities. Three large rivers, the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Pearl River, flow into the East China Sea, the Bohai Sea, and the South China Sea, respectively. The Kuroshio Current at the outer margin of the Chinese continental shelf is one of the two major western boundary currents of the world oceans and its strength and position directly affect the regional climate of China. These characteristics make the China Seas a typical case of marginal seas to study carbon storage and fluxes. This paper systematically analyzes the literature data on the carbon pools and fluxes of the Bohai Sea,Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea, including different interfaces(land-sea, sea-air, sediment-water, and marginal sea-open ocean) and different ecosystems(mangroves, wetland, seagrass beds, macroalgae mariculture, coral reefs, euphotic zones, and water column). Among the four seas, the Bohai Sea and South China Sea are acting as CO_2 sources, releasing about0.22 and 13.86–33.60 Tg C yr~(-1) into the atmosphere, respectively, whereas the Yellow Sea and East China Sea are acting as carbon sinks, absorbing about 1.15 and 6.92–23.30 Tg C yr~(-1) of atmospheric CO_2, respectively. Overall, if only the CO_2 exchange at the sea-air interface is considered, the Chinese marginal seas appear to be a source of atmospheric CO_2, with a net release of 6.01–9.33 Tg C yr~(-1), mainly from the inputs of rivers and adjacent oceans. The riverine dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) input into the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea are 5.04, 14.60, and 40.14 Tg C yr~(-1),respectively. The DIC input from adjacent oceans is as high as 144.81 Tg C yr~(-1), significantly exceeding the carbon released from the seas to the atmosphere. In terms of output, the depositional fluxes of organic carbon in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea are 2.00, 3.60, 7.40, and 5.92 Tg C yr~(-1), respectively. The fluxes of organic carbon from the East China Sea and South China Sea to the adjacent oceans are 15.25–36.70 and 43.93 Tg C yr~(-1), respectively. The annual carbon storage of mangroves, wetlands, and seagrass in Chinese coastal waters is 0.36–1.75 Tg C yr~(-1), with a dissolved organic carbon(DOC) output from seagrass beds of up to 0.59 Tg C yr~(-1). Removable organic carbon flux by Chinese macroalgae mariculture account for 0.68 Tg C yr~(-1) and the associated POC depositional and DOC releasing fluxes are 0.14 and 0.82 Tg C yr~(-1), respectively. Thus, in total, the annual output of organic carbon, which is mainly DOC, in the China Seas is 81.72–104.56 Tg C yr~(-1). The DOC efflux from the East China Sea to the adjacent oceans is 15.00–35.00 Tg C yr~(-1). The DOC efflux from the South China Sea is 31.39 Tg C yr~(-1). Although the marginal China Seas seem to be a source of atmospheric CO_2 based on the CO_2 flux at the sea-air interface, the combined effects of the riverine input in the area, oceanic input, depositional export,and microbial carbon pump(DOC conversion and output) indicate that the China Seas represent an important carbon storage area.     

东海的地质与油气勘探

东海的地质研究和油气勘探已经历了三个阶段:1.利用综合地球物理方法（重力、磁力、地震反射）,阐明东海的大地构造分区及其演化;2.反射地震研究得出东海陆架盆地的新生代构造图;3.在此基础上,详细地震勘探与地震地层学研究,确定出一系列钻探井位。钻探发现油气显示和工业油气流。其中,新钻井灵峰一井展示出寻找油气资源的新课题。     

Climate and extrema of ocean waves in the East China Sea

Wave climate plays an important role in the air-sea interaction over marginal seas. Extreme wave height provides fundamental information for various ocean engineering practices, such as hazard mitigation, coastal structure design, and risk assessment. In this paper, we implement a third generation wave model and conduct a high-resolution wave hindcast over the East China Sea to reconstruct a 15-year wave field from 1988 to 2002 for derivation of monthly mean wave parameters and analysis of extreme wave conditions. The numerical results of the wave field are validated through comparison with satellite altimetry measurements, low-resolution reanalysis, and the ocean wave buoy record. The monthly averaged wave height and wave period show seasonal variation and refined spatial patterns of surface waves in the East China Sea. The climatological significant wave height and mean wave period decrease from the open ocean in the southeast toward the continental area in the northwest, with the pattern generally following the bathymetry. Extreme analysis on the significant wave height at the buoy station indicates the hindcast data underestimate the extreme values relative to the observations. The spatial pattern of extreme wave height shows single peak emerges at the southwest of Ryukyu Island although a wind forcing with multi-core structure at the extreme is applied.     

南海北部雾状层分布和特征的地震海洋学研究

利用地震海洋学方法在南海北部陆架和上陆坡区域发现了15个雾状层.这些雾状层的延伸长度从几千米到几十千米,厚度十几米到一百米,其顶界所处水深在135 m至715.5 m范围之间.雾状层在地震海洋学剖面上表现为强反射特征.不同于其他传统声学或光学方法,地震海洋学方法分辨率高,且能在短时间内对整个水体进行成像,可以记录到雾状层的时空变化特征,实现对雾状层的"四维"观测.南海北部上陆坡区域是内孤立波浅化、能量耗散集中的区域,在此过程中内孤立波会导致较大的波致流速,侵蚀海底使得表面沉积物再悬浮,进入水体,形成和维持雾状层的存在.     

EFFECT OF TSUNAMIS GENERATED IN THE MANILA TRENCH ON CHINA MAINLAND

Tsunami is one of the most devastating natural coastal disasters. Most of large tsunamis are generated by submarine earthquakes occurring in subduction zones. Tsunamis can also be triggered by volcano eruptions and large landslides. There are many records about "sea-overflow" in Chinese ancient books, which are not proved to be tsunamis. Tectonics and historical records analysis are import to forecast and prevention of tsunami. Consider the tectonic environment of the China sea, the possibility of huge damage caused by the offshore tsunami is very small. And the impact of the ocean tsunami on the Bohai sea, the Yellow sea, and the East China sea is also small. But in the South China Sea, the Manila subduction zone has been identified as a high hazardous tsunamigenic earthquake source region. No earthquake larger than M_W7.6 has been recorded in the past 100a in this region, suggesting a high probability for larger earthquakes in the future. If a tsunamigenic earthquake were to occur in this region in the near future, a tragedy with the magnitude similar to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami could repeat itself. In this paper, based on tectonics and historical records analysis, we have demonstrated that potential for a strong future earthquake along the Manila subduction zone is real. Using a numerical model, we have also shown that most countries in the South China Sea will be affected by the tsunamis generated by the future earthquake. For China, it implies that the maximum wave height over 4.0 meter on China mainland, especially the Pearl River Estuary. But the island, local relief maybe influence the maximum wave. But it takes nearly 3 hours to attack China mainland, if there is the operational tsunami warning system in place in this region, should be greatly reduced losses. And the simulated results are conformable to historical records. It indicates that the tsunami hazards from Manila trench to China mainland worthy of our attention and prevention.     

Oxygen depletion off the Changjiang (Yangtze River) Estuary

In a survey on the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea on August 20-30 of 1999, we found a hypoxic zone (<2 mg/L) of 13700 km² with an average thickness of 20m at the bottom of the Changjiang (Yangtze River) Estuary, with an oxygen minimum value of 1 mg/L. The extension of the dissolved oxygen deficiency extended to the 100m isobath in a southeastward direction along the bottom of the continental shelf of the East China Sea. During the last two decades, the minimum dissolved oxygen values in the low oxygen region of the Changjiang Estuary have decreased from 2.85 mg/L to 1 mg/L. In the hypoxic zone, the apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) was 5.8 mg/L and the total oxygen depletion approximately 1.59 × 10⁶t. The strong halocline above the hypoxic zone, as a result of affluent water from the Changjiang, Taiwan Warm Current (TWC), and the high concentrations of particle organic carbon (POC) and nitrogen (PON) are the major factors causing the formation of the hypoxic zone. The POC: PON ratios and nutrient concentration distributions in the hypoxic zone suggest that the oxygen deficiency in the bottom water during the summer in the East China Sea off the Changjiang is the result of organic carbon production enhanced by nutrients from the Changjiang and fluvial organic matter input, followed by a shift in regeneration of nutrients in the East China Sea.