An aridity trend in china and its abrupt feature in association with the global warming

A distinct aridity tread in China in last 100 years is presented by applying a linear fitting to both the climate re-cords and the hydrological records, which is supported by evidence of environmental changes and seems to be associ-ated with a global warming trend during this period.The Mann Kendall Rank statistic test reveals a very interesting feature that the climate of China entered into a dry regime abruptly in about l920’s, which synchronized with the rapid warming of the global temperature at almost the same time.According to an analysis of the meridional profile of observed global zonal mean precipitation anomalies during the peak period of global warming (1930-1940), the drought occurred in whole middle latitude zone (25oN-55oN) of the Northern Hemisphere, where the most part of China is located in. Although this pattern is in good agreement with the latitude distribution of the difference of zonal mean rates of precipitation between 4 × CO2 and 1 × CO2 simu-lated by climate model (Manabe and Wetherald, 1983), more studies are required to understand the linkage between the aridity trend in China and the greenhouse effect.The EOF analysis of the Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure for the season of June to August shows an ab-rupt change of the time coefficient of its first eigenvector from positive to negative in mid-lP^s, indicating an enhancement of the subtropical high over Southeast Asia and the western Pacific after that time. This is an atmos-pheric circulation pattern that is favorable to the development of dry climate in China.     

Evaluation of Surface Air Temperature Change over China and the Globe during the Twentieth Century in IAP AGCM4.0

Based on time series and linear trend analysis, the authors evaluated the performance of the fourth generation atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP AGCM4.0), in simulating surface air temperature (SAT) during the twentieth century over China and the globe. The numerical experiment is conducted by driving the model with the observed sea surface temperature and sea ice. It is shown that IAP AGCM4.0 can simulate the warming trend of the global SAT, with the major warming regions in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. While the simulated trend over the whole globe is close to the observation, the model under-estimates the observed trend over the continents. More-over, the model simulates the spatial distribution of SAT in China, with a bias of approximately-2°C in eastern China, but with a more serious bias in western China. Compared with the global mean, however, the correlation coefficient between the simulation and observation in China is significantly lower, indicating that there is large uncertainty in simulating regional climate change.     

Progress of the Seasonal Evolution of East Asian Summer Circulation during July-August and Its Linkages with the Subseasonal Processes over the Western North Pacific

Based on the NCAR/NCEP monthly and pentad reanalysis dataset of 1961-2003, the progress of seasonal evolution of the summer atmospheric circulation in the East Asia in July to August, including the advanced and delayed cases, and their relationships with the subseasonal processes over the western North Pacific are analyzed and compared with that of climatology. The results show that the progress of seasonal cycle is advanced about a month ahead of the climatological time when the convection during 20-29 July is active in the region of the subtropical West Pacific (15°-25°N, 150°-165°E), while it is delayed about one month when weaker convections appear in the same region. Instead, the relative active convection for the latter occurs in Pentad 46 (14-18 August). It is proved that the convective activities in the early July in the equatorial central and east Pacific, and then the convective anomalies in the subtropical western North Pacific can excite the formation of the acceleration and delay of the seasonal circulation evolution in the East Asia in the late summer. The preceding subseasonal processes over the western North Pacific, including the time-lag interactions among the active convection in the late June and early July, the Northwest Pacific anticyclone, the underlying sea surface temperature and low-level winds anomalies, and their relationships with the anomalous seasonal evolution of the summer atmospheric circulation in the East Asia in late July are also investigated. However, further study, especially the numerical experiments, is needed on the mechanism of the anomaly summer seasonal cycle in the East Asia and the Northwest Pacific.     

IMPACT OF SEA SPRAY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY CHANGE

In this paper,the effects of sea spray on tropical cyclone(TC)structure and intensity variation are evaluated through numerical simulations using an advanced sea-spray parameterization from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory(NOAA/ESRL),which is incorporated in the idealized Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW)model.The effect of sea spray on TC boundary-layer structure is also analyzed.The results show that there is a significant increase in TC intensity when its boundary-layer wind includes the radial and tangential winds,their structure change,and the total surface wind speed change.Diagnosis of the vorticity budget shows that an increase of convergence in TC boundary layer enhances TC vorticity due to the dynamic effect of sea spay.The main kinematic effect of the friction velocity reduction by sea spray produces an increment of large-scale convergence in the TC boundary layer,while the radial and tangential winds significantly increase with an increment of the horizontal gradient maximum of the radial wind, resulting in a final increase in the simulated TC intensity.The surface enthalpy flux enlarges TC intensity and reduces storm structure change to some degree,which results in a secondary thermodynamic impact on TC intensification.Implications of the new interpretation of sea-spray effects on TC intensification are also discussed.     

IMPACTS OF MONTHLY ANOMALIES OF INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA AND SOUTH ASIA ON THE ACTIVITY OF SUMMER MONSOON AND RAINFALL IN EASTERN CHINA

The impact of strong (weak) intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over South China Sea (SCS) and South Asia (SA) in summer on the SCS and SA summer monsoon and the summer rainfall in Eastern China are studied by using the NCEP-NCAR analysis data and the rainfall data of 160 stations in China from 1961 to 2010. It is found that the impacts are significantly different in different months of summer. The study shows that in June and July cyclonic (anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SCS and SA corresponds to strong (weak) ISO over SCS. In August, however, strong (weak) ISO over SCS still corresponds to cyclonic (anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SA. In June and August cyclonic (anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over South Asia corresponds to strong (weak) ISO over SA while a strong (weak) ISO corresponds to anticyclonic (cyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SA in July. Besides, in June the strong (weak) ISO over SA corresponds to cyclonic (anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SCS, while in July and August the atmospheric circulation is in the same phase regardless of whether the ISO over SA is strong or weak. The impacts of the strong（weak）ISO over SCS on the rainfall of eastern China are similar in June and July, which favors less (more) rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin but sufficient (deficient) rainfall in the south of Yangtze River. However, the impacts are not so apparent in August. In South Asia, the strong (weak) ISO in July results in less (more) rainfall in the south of Yangtze River but sufficient (deficient) rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin. The influence on the rainfall in eastern China in June and August is not as significant as in July.     

Monsoon Change in East Asia in the 21st Century: Results of RegCM3

The authors investigate monsoon change in East Asia in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario using the results of a regional climate model, RegCM3, with a high horizontal resolution. First, the authors evaluate the model’s performance compared with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, showing that the model can reliably reproduce the basic climatology of both winter and summer monsoons over East Asia. Next, it is found that the winter monsoon in East Asia would slightly weaken in the 21st century with spatial differences. Over northern East China, anomalous southerly winds would dominate in the mid-and late-21st century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast is expected to become smaller, due to a stronger warming trend over land than over ocean. However, the intensity of the summer monsoon in East Asia shows a statistically significant upward trend over this century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast between East Asia and the western North Pacific would become larger, which, in turn, would lead to larger sea level pressure gradients throughout East Asia and extending to the adjacent ocean.     

Mid-latitude atmospheric responses to heat and vorticity forcing using a linear baroclinic model

Based on diagnostic analysis of reanalysis data for 58-year, the distribution characteristics of decadal variability in diabatic heating, transient eddy heating and transient eddy vorticity forcing related to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Pacific, as well as their relationship with anomalous atmospheric circulation have been investigated in this paper. A linear baroclinic model(LBM) was used to investigate atmospheric responses to idealized and realistic heat and vorticity forcing anomalies, and then to compare relative roles of different kinds of forcing in terms of geopotential height responses. The results illustrate that the responses of atmospheric height fields to the mid-latitude heating can be either baroclinic or barotropic. The response structure is sensitive to the relative horizontal location of heating with respect to the background jet flow, as well as to the vertical profile of heating. The response to the idealized deep heating over the eastern North Pacific, mimicking the observed heating anomaly, is baroclinic. The atmospheric response to the mid-latitude vorticity forcing is always barotropic, resulting in a geopotential low that is in phase with the forcing. The atmospheric responses to the realistic heat and vorticity forcing show the similar results, suggesting that diabatic heating, transient eddy heating and transient eddy vorticity forcing can all cause atmospheric anomalies and that the vorticity forcing plays a relatively more important role in maintaining the equivalent-barotropic structure of geopotential height anomalies.     

Interdecadal and Interannnual Variabilities of the Antarctic Oscillation Simulated by CAM3

Based on four sets of numerical simulations prescribed with atmospheric radiative forcing and sea surface temperature（SST） forcing in the Community Atmospheric Model version 3（CAM3）, the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the Antarctic oscillation（AAO） during austral summer were studied. It was found that the interannual variability is mainly driven by SST forcing. On the other hand, atmospheric radiative forcing plays a major role in the interdecadal variability. A cooling trend was found in the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere（SH） when atmospheric radiative forcing was specified in the model. This cooling trend tended to enhance the temperature gradient between the mid and high latitudes in the SH, inducing a transition of the AAO from a negative to a positive phase on the interdecadal timescale. The cooling trend was also partly weakened by the SST forcing, leading to a better simulation compared with the purely atmospheric radiative forcing run. Therefore, SST forcing cannot be ignored, although it is not as important as atmospheric radiative forcing.     

A numerical world ocean general circulation model

This paper describes a numerical model of the world ocean based on the fully primitive equations. A “Standard” ocean state is introduced into the equations of the model and the perturbed thermodynamic variables are used in the modle’s calculations. Both a free upper surface and a bottom topography are included in the model and a sigma coordinate is used to normalize the model’s vertical component. The model has four unevenly-spaced layers and 4 × 5 horizontal resolution based on C-grid system. The finite-difference scheme of the model is designed to conserve the gross available energy in order to avoid fictitious energy generation or decay.The model has been tested in response to the annual mean surface wind stress, sea level air pressure and sea level air temperature as a preliminary step to its further improvement and its coupling with a global atmospheric general circulation model. Some of results, including currents, temperature and sea surface elevation simulated by the model are presented.     

A Numerical World Ocean General Circulation Model

This paper describes a numerical model of the world ocean based on the fully primitive equations. A "Standard" ocean state is introduced into the equations of the model and the perturbed thermodynamic variables are used in the modlc's calculations. Both a free upper surface and a bottom topography are included in the model and a sigma coordinate is used to normalize the model's vertical component. The model has four unevenly-spaced layers and 4 × 5 horizontal resolution based on C-grid system. The finite-difference scheme of the model is designed to conserve the gross available energy in order to avoid fictitious energy generation or decay.The model has been tested in response to the annual mean surface wind stress, sea level air pressure and sea level air temperature as a preliminary step to its further improvement and its coupling with a global atmospheric general circulation model. Some of results, including currents, temperature and sea surface elevation simulated by the mode! arc presented.     

Seasonal and long-term sea-level variations and their forcing factors in the northern Bay of Bengal: A statistical analysis of temperature,salinity, wind stress curl,and regional climate index data

In the northern Bay of Bengal, mechanisms of seasonal sea-level variation have not previously been examined, and the understanding of longer-term inter-annual sea-level variation is also not concrete. These parameters are addressed in this study utilizing available tide gauge and satellite altimetry data. The contribution of steric sea level to seasonal and longer-term inter-annual sea-level variations is quantified, and statistical analysis is performed to determine the correlations of various atmospheric and oceanic factors with sea level. This study suggests that the trend of sea-level rise in this bay (4 ± 1.33 mm/year) is higher than the global average (3.32 ± 0.46 mm/year) for the studied period 1993 to 2018. The rate of sea-level rise is higher along the coast than in the offshore area and the highest in the central part of the coast. Sea level shows a strong seasonal variation: sea level is the lowest in the winter but the highest in autumn. The contribution from the thermosteric sea level is higher to the observed sea level from winter to early summer, whereas contributions from the halosteric sea level and wind stress curl are higher during autumn. Long-term variations in sea level show strong positive correlations with thermosteric sea level, indicating that temperature is a major local controlling factor for sea-level change. In addition to local factors, long-term sea level also varies by remote forcing (equatorial zonal wind stress), which explains approximately 36 % of the sea-level variation in this bay. Sea level is low during the combined events of positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and El Niño, whereas the sea level is high during the combined events of negative IOD and La Niña. This study provides an improved understanding of seasonal and longer-term inter-annual variations of sea level and the necessary groundworks for a dedicated model study to further quantify all the components of the sea-level budget in the study areas.     

南海夏季风变化及其与全球大气和海温的关系

本文分析了1948～2006年南海夏季风的年际变化, 讨论了南海夏季风与全球气象要素场如环流、相对湿度、海表温度 (SST) 等的关系。结果表明: 南海夏季风与全球各物理量之间有较好的大范围统计相关。选出了10个强南海夏季风年, 8个弱南海夏季风年, 利用合成分析研究了季风强、 弱年的环流和SST特征及其差异, 结果表明南海夏季风强弱年各特征量之间存在显著差异。尤其表现在SST上, 强弱季风年不仅在夏季东印度洋－西太平洋区域有明显差异, 并且前期春季此区域的SST与南海夏季风有持续的显著负相关, 可以作为南海夏季风强度变化的一个预报因子。     

2021年夏季海洋天气评述

2021年夏季（6—8月）大气环流特征为：北半球极涡呈单极型分布,主体位于北冰洋上空偏向西半球,强度较常年偏强;东亚地区以纬向环流为主,副热带高压较常年平均略偏西偏南。6月,北部海域温度较低,黄渤海海雾天气多发。7月,西南季风推进,热带气旋活跃。8月,副热带高压增强西伸,热带气旋活动频次偏少。夏季共有7次海雾过程,其中6月有4次,7月有3次。我国近海出现了9次8级以上大风过程,其中热带气旋大风过程6次,温带气旋入海影响的大风过程3次。浪高在2 m以上的海浪过程有10次,2 m以上大浪的天数共计38 d。我国北部及东部海域升温明显,从北到南的海面温度梯度减小。西北太平洋和南海有9个台风活动,其中台风“烟花”造成近海一次范围广、时间长、风力大的大风过程。     

Potential Influence of a Developing La Niña on the Sea-Ice Reduction in the Barents–Kara Seas

Abstract

The potential influence of a developing La Niña on Arctic sea-ice annual variability is investigated using both observational data and an atmospheric general circulation model. It is found that during the developing phase of an eastern Pacific (EP) La Niña event in June, July, and August (JJA) and September, October, and November (SON), the sea-ice concentration (SIC) over the Barents–Kara Seas declines more than 15%. The local atmospheric circulation pattern associated with the EP La Niña is characterized as a weak decrease in geopotential height over the Barents–Kara Seas, combined with an anticyclone in the North Atlantic. The corresponding southerly winds push warm waters northward into the key sea-ice reduction region and directly accelerate sea-ice melt. Meanwhile, the abundant moisture contained in the lower troposphere is transported into the Arctic region by winds resulting from the local barotropic structure. The humid atmosphere contributes to both net shortwave and longwave radiation and thus indirectly accelerates the decline in sea ice. Simulations by the European Centre Hamburg Model, version 5.4, are forced by observed sea surface temperature anomalies associated with EP La Niña events. The results of the simulations capture the North Atlantic anticyclone and reproduce the moisture transport, which supports the premise that an EP La Niña plays a crucial role in sea-ice reduction over the Barents–Kara sector from the perspective of atmospheric circulation and net surface heat flux.     

Decadal oscillations in a simplified coupled model due to unstable interactions between zonal winds and ocean gyres

A simplified coupled ocean–atmosphere model, consisting of a one-layer bidimensional ocean model and a one-layer unidimensional energy balance atmospheric model [J. Clim. 13 (2000) 232] is used to study the unstable interactions between zonal winds and ocean gyres. In a specific range of parameters, decadal variability is found. Anomalies, quite homogeneous zonally, show small-scale wavelength in latitude: perturbations emerge and grow at the southern limb of the intergyre boundary and propagate southward before decaying. The wind stress anomalies are proportional to the meridional gradient of the atmospheric temperature anomalies: this ratio acts as a positive amplification factor, as confirmed by a parameter sensitivity analysis. Assuming zonally-averaged anomalies harmonic in the meridional direction, a very simple analytical model for the perturbations is derived, based on forced Rossby wave adjustment of the western boundary current and its associated anomalous heat transport: it accounts for the scale selection, the growth and the southward propagation of sea surface temperature anomalies in the subtropical gyre. The latter is not only due to the slow advection by the mean current, but to a prevailing mechanism of self-advecting coupled oceanic and atmospheric waves, out of phase in latitude. Relevance to the observational record is discussed.     

2020年夏季海洋天气评述

2020年夏季（6—8月）,北半球极涡呈现明显的单极型分布,极涡主体位于北极圈内,中心偏向东半球,中高纬环流呈现4波型分布。6—7月,西太平洋副热带高压较常年平均偏强,且位置偏西偏南,不利于热带气旋活动。2020年夏季共有8个热带气旋在西北太平洋和南海生成,其中7月没有热带气旋生成。除西北太平洋和南海之外,其他热带洋面另有20个热带气旋生成,其中北大西洋11个,东太平洋8个,北印度洋1个。受偏南暖湿气流的影响,我国北方海域多海雾天气。同时受入海气旋活动影响,多海上大风过程。夏季近海海域共出现了7次比较明显的海雾过程,其中6月3次,7月1次,8月3次。大风过程出现了10次, 2次由热带气旋影响,7次与入海气旋活动有关。发生2 m以上的大浪过程12次,6—8月分别出现了4次、5次和3次。     

南海年际尺度海气相互作用的初探

本文分析了南海海洋大气系统短期气候变化中存在年际振荡的若干观测事实，提出了局地尺度南海海洋与低层大气相互作用的一种可能机制。针对南海表层水温距平和低层风场异常的相关，设计了一个类似与ＭｃＣｒｅａｒｙ和Ａｎｄｅｒ－ｓｏｎ（１９８４）模型的简化海气耦合模式。大气部分为随下垫面海温变化而变化的异常风应力阶梯函数与季节性风场的联合；海洋部分为非线性β－平面的约化重力模式。考虑南海海洋大气相互作用中存在的海温与低层大气风场变化之间反馈过程，耦合模式在气候积分中表现出一类约３ａ的周期性年际振荡。说明这个区域ＳＳＴ、低层大气风场年际振荡是南海海盆尺度的海气相互作用的反映，改进了关于南海ＳＳＴ年际振荡是海洋对大气应力甚低频强迫响应的认识     

What dynamics drive future wind scenarios for coastal upwelling off Peru and Chile?

The dynamics of the Peru–Chile upwelling system (PCUS) are primarily driven by alongshore wind stress and curl, like in other eastern boundary upwelling systems. Previous studies have suggested that upwelling-favorable winds would increase under climate change, due to an enhancement of the thermally-driven cross-shore pressure gradient. Using an atmospheric model on a stretched grid with increased horizontal resolution in the PCUS, a dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios from a global coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is performed to investigate the processes leading to sea-surface wind changes. Downscaled winds associated with present climate show reasonably good agreement with climatological observations. Downscaled winds under climate change show a strengthening off central Chile south of 35°S (at 30°S–35°S) in austral summer (winter) and a weakening elsewhere. An alongshore momentum balance shows that the wind slowdown (strengthening) off Peru and northern Chile (off central Chile) is associated with a decrease (an increase) in the alongshore pressure gradient. Whereas the strengthening off Chile is likely due to the poleward displacement and intensification of the South Pacific Anticyclone, the slowdown off Peru may be associated with increased precipitation over the tropics and associated convective anomalies, as suggested by a vorticity budget analysis. On the other hand, an increase in the land–sea temperature difference is not found to drive similar changes in the cross-shore pressure gradient. Results from another atmospheric model with distinct CGCM forcing and climate scenarios suggest that projected wind changes off Peru are sensitive to concurrent changes in sea surface temperature and rainfall.