热带积云对流加热在全球大气遥响应中的重要作用──数值试验结果

利用ＩＡＰ两层大气环流模式模拟研究了热带地区积云对流加热在大气对赤道东太平洋海温正异常响应中的作用。通过对积分结果进行分析发现：热带地区积云对流在大气对赤道东太平洋海温正异常的响应过程中起着非常重要的作用。若热带地区的积云对流加热减弱则大气中的遥响应（相关）型也减弱。同时我们还发现，热带地区的积云对流加热加强则响应场的３０—６０ｄ低频振荡也得到加强。     

海气热交换过程中海温涨落的随机效应的初步研究

海洋输向大气的热量和水汽通量的瞬时变化是风力的函数,同时受到海气温差和水汽压变化的影响,其中又以海温的变化对通量变化的影响最为重要。本文研究了由于海温涨落所产生的随机统计效应。在热力学能量方程的基础上,就热带和副热带海面的情形,着重考虑海气热交换过程中潜热通量和长波辐射两个因素,利用统计物理学中有关的处理方法进行了讨论,并作数值计算,取得了一些有意义的结果。     

极涡与副高相互作用及其与太平洋海温的关系

本文研究了西太平洋副高与极涡的相互作用,讨论了副高与极涡夏季同期的相互作用及这二个系统各自前期演变对对方的“滞后”影响,同时还探讨了作为大气运动冷热源之一的太平洋冬季黑潮海温感热输送异常及亲潮海温变化对副高、极涡的热力作用。研究指出:冬季黑潮海温对夏季极涡分布的海气热力效应及冬季黑潮、亲潮海温间的不同距平分布对应着河北(华北)夏季降水过程的不同类型。     

简单气候模式的随机分析解

本文根据热力学第一定律和随机函数建立了一个随机、非线性气候模式,并求出了模式的解析解。结果表明:模式的温度概率密度是一条有双峰值的曲线,太阳辐射的改变将使曲线上峰的数目发生突变;另外,在利用模式分析海温时还发现:各纬度海温对天气过程的扰动作用将呈现不同的响应。     

逐日大气加热场的计算方法和个例分析

本文根据涡度方程和热力学方程, 提出了利用四层标准等压面资料倒算逐日整层垂直平均大气加热场的方法。并对冬,春两次强天气过程进行了实例计算,讨论了逐日大气加热场的大小。着重分析了加热场分布与中期环流形势演变的相互关系。     

大气热力遥相关及其海洋异常强迫的分析研究

应用北半球５００ｈＰａ大气非绝热热流量诊断资料和全球海温资料,分析研究大气热力遥相关及其海温对大气热力场的强迫效应。发现大气热力异常存在一种主要相关型——热力太平洋北美型,它是大气热力场对海温异常综合响应的结果。由此,得到了一些新的认识和理解     

大气热力遥相关及其海洋异常强迫的分析研究

应用北半球500hPa大气非绝热热流量诊断资料和全球海温资料,分析研究大气热力遥相关及其海温对大气热力场的强迫效应.发现大气热力异常存在一种主要相关型--热力太平洋北美型,它是大气热力场对海温异常综合响应的结果.由此,得到了一些新的认识和理解.     

ENSO与印度洋海盆海温多尺度相互作用及其对气候影响的研究进展

系统回顾了近年来有关ENSO与印度洋海盆海温多时间尺度相互作用及其气候效应研究的相关成果。主要包括年际和年代际时间尺度上,ENSO与印度洋海盆海温之间相互联系的基本事实和机制,以及与之相关的气候影响,特别是上述联系对亚洲季风系统及气候异常的影响。在年际尺度上,ENSO通过“大气桥”过程主导着印度洋海温变化,而后者的异常也可通过纬向环流的“齿轮式耦合”对ENSO产生影响。在年代际尺度上,一方面印度洋海盆海温显著的夏季增暖可能来自ENSO暖事件持续时间的年代际延长,另一方面印度洋秋季海温空间分布模态的年代际变化,则对ENSO暖事件强度的年代际增强具有贡献。二者的多时间尺度相互作用进而通过影响大气和海洋环流、辐射反馈、蒸发降水等多种海气耦合过程产生显著的气候效应。研究成果表明印度洋海温变化对亚洲乃至全球气候异常的重要作用。在回顾上述研究成果的基础上,讨论了进一步研究ENSO与印度洋海盆海温多时间尺度变率影响全球气候的前景和重要意义。     

北太平洋次表层海温异常对中国夏季降水影响的可能途径

利用Godas月平均次表层海温资料, 分析了冬、春季和夏季北太平洋次表层海温层际相似性特征, 据此对次表层海温进行分层。在此基础上研究了500 hPa位势高度场、北太平洋次表层海温、中国夏季降水三者之间的时滞相关关系, 发现春季北太平洋次表层海温场是联系前、后期大气环流的关键因素。前期冬季大气环流对春季北太平洋次表层海温场影响最显著, 春季北太平洋次表层海温场又持续影响同期及后期夏季大气环流异常。异常的夏季大气环流与同期表层、次表层海温相互作用, 共同造成夏季长江流域与华北、华南降水出现相反异常的分布型式。     

长江中下游旱涝的环流型与赤道东太平洋海温遥相关波列特征

根据长江中下游地区夏季旱涝年前期冬、春季北太平洋海温分布特征进行分析研究 ,提出了影响区域性旱涝的海温“强信号”概念 ;探讨了北半球大气环流结构对赤道东太平洋海温异常响应问题 ,并研究了东太平洋海温与北半球夏、春季高度偏差场季尺度相关偏差场波列结构相关特征。研究结果表明 ,赤道东太平洋海温异常可能通过低纬walker环流引起赤道西太平洋区域性大气异常运动 ,从而产生遥响应环流型 ,形成类似PNA遥相关“大圆波列”。此类遥响应特征在西太平洋区域表现出与副热带高压、西风槽、阻塞高压等相关的系统的准定常经向波列。研究结果还表明此类经向波列结构描述了中高纬地区系统对低纬异常海温遥响应的动力学特征。应用 1997～ 1998年冬季实际海温资料 ,并在赤道中东太平洋地区引入实际海温异常的敏感性试验 ,较成功地模拟了 1998年夏季长江流域洪涝的降水分布特征。文中从统计、动力分析和数值模拟综合分析方法揭示出由前期东太平洋海温异常引起的大气环流变异 ,构成中国长江流域旱涝的物理图像及其动力学模型。     

The vertical distribution of climate forcings and feedbacks from the surface to top of atmosphere

The radiative forcings and feedbacks that determine Earth’s climate sensitivity are typically defined at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) or tropopause, yet climate sensitivity itself refers to a change in temperature at the surface. In this paper, we describe how TOA radiative perturbations translate into surface temperature changes. It is shown using first principles that radiation changes at the TOA can be equated with the change in energy stored by the oceans and land surface. This ocean and land heat uptake in turn involves an adjustment of the surface radiative and non-radiative energy fluxes, with the latter being comprised of the turbulent exchange of latent and sensible heat between the surface and atmosphere. We employ the radiative kernel technique to decompose TOA radiative feedbacks in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report climate models into components associated with changes in radiative heating of the atmosphere and of the surface. (We consider the equilibrium response of atmosphere-mixed layer ocean models subjected to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO₂). It is shown that most feedbacks, i.e., the temperature, water vapor and cloud feedbacks, (as well as CO₂ forcing) affect primarily the turbulent energy exchange at the surface rather than the radiative energy exchange. Specifically, the temperature feedback increases the surface turbulent (radiative) energy loss by 2.87 W m^?2 K^?1 (0.60 W m^?2 K^?1) in the multimodel mean; the water vapor feedback decreases the surface turbulent energy loss by 1.07 W m^?2 K^?1 and increases the surface radiative heating by 0.89 W m^?2 K^?1; and the cloud feedback decreases both the turbulent energy loss and the radiative heating at the surface by 0.43 and 0.24 W m^?2 K^?1, respectively. Since changes to the surface turbulent energy exchange are dominated in the global mean sense by changes in surface evaporation, these results serve to highlight the fundamental importance of the global water cycle to Earth’s climate sensitivity.     

The transport of CO2-induced warming into the ocean: an analysis of simulations by the OSU coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

The OSU global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model has been used to investigate a 2xCO₂-induced climate change. A previous analysis of the simulated 2xCO₂–1xCO₂ temperature differences showed that the CO₂-induced warming penetrated into the ocean and thereby caused a delay in the equilibration of the climate system with an estimatede-folding time of 50–75 years. The objective of the present study is to determine by what pathways and through which physical processes the simulated ocean general circulation produces the penetration of the CO₂-induced warming into the ocean.A global-mean oceanic heat budget analysis shows that the ocean gains heat at a rate of 3 W/m² due to the CO₂ doubling, and that this heat penetrates downward into the ocean predominantly through the reduction in the convective overturning. A zonal-mean oceanic heat budget analysis shows that the surface warming increases from the tropics toward the midlatitudes of both hemispheres and gradually penetrated into the deeper ocean, with a greater penetration in the subtropics and midlatitudes than in the equatorial region. The zonal-mean heat budget analysis also shows that the CO₂-induced warming of the ocean occurs predominantly through the down-ward transport of heat, with the meridional heat flux being only of secondary importance. In the tropics the penetration of the CO₂-induced heating is minimized by the upwelling of cold water. In the subtropics the heating is transported down-ward more readily by the downwelling existing there. In the high latitudes the suppressed convection plays the dominant role in the downward penetration of the CO₂-induced heating. The latter result should be considered as tentative, however, as the ocean component of the coupled model employed a prescribed surface salinity field and did not include the mechanism of brine rejection when sea water freezes into sea ice.     

Evolution of cool skin and direct air-sea gas transfer coefficient during daytime

Absorption of solar radiation within the thermal molecular sublayer of the ocean can modify the temperature difference across the cool skin as well as the air-sea gas transfer. Our model of renewal type is based on the assumption that the thermal and diffusive molecular sublayers below the ocean surface undergo cyclic growth and destruction, the heat and gas transfer between the successive burst events are performed by molecular diffusion. The model has been upgraded to include heating due to solar radiation. The renewal time is parameterized as a function of the surface Richardson number and the Keulegan number. A Rayleigh number criterion characterizes the convective instability of the cool skin under solar heating. Under low wind speed conditions, the solar heating can damp the convective instability, strongly increasing the renewal time and correspondingly decreasing the interfacial gas exchange. In the ocean, an additional convective instability caused by salinity flux due to evaporation becomes of importance in such cases. The new parameterization is compared with the cool skin data obtained in the western equatorial Pacific during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment in February 1993. In combination with a model of the diurnal thermocline it describes main features of the field data both in nighttime and daytime. Under low wind speed conditions (< 5 m s^-1) diurnal variations of the sea surface temperature due to the formation of a diurnal thermocline were substantially larger than those across the cool skin. Under wind speeds > 5 m s^-1, diurnal variations of the surface temperature due to the variations of the thermal molecular sublayer become more important.     

ON THE STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS OF A SIMPLE CLIMATE MODEL

By using the first thermodynamic law and stochastic function,a stochastic nonlinear climate model isproposed and the model analytical solution is obtained.The result indicates that the global temperature prob-ability density function has two peaks.If the solar radiation varies,a sudden change in the number of peakwill happen.In addition,we find that there are different sea temperature responses at different latitudes.     

The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation simulated by the GISS climate model during 1970–99

Abstract

Evidence based on numerical simulations is presented for a strong correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the North Atlantic overturning circulation. Using an ensemble of numerical experiments with a coupled ocean‐atmosphere model including both natural and anthropogenic forcings, it is shown that the weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC) could be delayed in response to a sustained upward trend in the NAO, which was observed over the last three decades of the twentieth century, 1970–99. Overall warming and enhanced horizontal transports of heat from the tropics to the subpolar North Atlantic overwhelm the NAO‐induced cooling of the upper ocean layers due to enhanced fluxes of latent and sensible heat, so that the net effect of warmed surface ocean temperatures acts to increase the vertical stability of the ocean column. However, the strong westerly winds cause increased evaporation from the ocean surface, which leads to a reduced fresh water flux over the western part of the North Atlantic. Horizontal poleward transport of salinity anomalies from the tropical Atlantic is the major contributor to the increasing salinities in the sinking regions of the North Atlantic. The effect of positive salinity anomalies on surface ocean density overrides the opposing effect of enhanced warming of the ocean surface, which causes an increase in surface density in the Labrador Sea and in the ocean area south of Greenland. The increased density of the upper ocean layer leads to deeper convection in the Labrador Sea and in the western North Atlantic. With a lag of four years, the meridional overturning circulation of the North Atlantic shows strengthening as it adjusts to positive density anomalies and enhanced vertical mixing. During the positive NAO trend, the salinity‐driven density instability in the upper ocean, due to both increased northward ocean transports of salinity and decreased atmospheric freshwater fluxes, results in a strengthening overturning circulation in the North Atlantic when the surface atmospheric temperature increases by 0.3°C and the ocean surface temperature warms by 0.5° to 1°C.     

Sensitivity of the Humboldt Current system to global warming: a downscaling experiment of the IPSL-CM4 model

The impact of climate warming on the seasonal variability of the Humboldt Current system ocean dynamics is investigated. The IPSL-CM4 large scale ocean circulation resulting from two contrasted climate scenarios, the so-called Preindustrial and quadrupling CO₂, are downscaled using an eddy-resolving regional ocean circulation model. The intense surface heating by the atmosphere in the quadrupling CO₂ scenario leads to a strong increase of the surface density stratification, a thinner coastal jet, an enhanced Peru–Chile undercurrent, and an intensification of nearshore turbulence. Upwelling rates respond quasi-linearly to the change in wind stress associated with anthropogenic forcing, and show a moderate decrease in summer off Peru and a strong increase off Chile. Results from sensitivity experiments show that a 50% wind stress increase does not compensate for the surface warming resulting from heat flux forcing and that the associated mesoscale turbulence increase is a robust feature.     

Turbulence Characteristics of the Shear-Free Convective Boundary Layer Driven by Heterogeneous Surface Heating

Large-eddy simulations (LESs) are employed to investigate the turbulence characteristics in the shear-free convective boundary layer (CBL) driven by heterogeneous surface heating. The patterns of surface heating are arranged as a chessboard with two different surface heat fluxes in the neighbouring patches, and the heterogeneity scale Λ in four different cases is taken as 1.2, 2.5, 5.0 and 10.0 km, respectively. The results are compared with those for the homogeneous case. The impact of the heterogeneity scale on the domain-averaged CBL characteristics, such as the profiles of the potential temperature and the heat flux, is not significant. However, different turbulence characteristics are induced by different heterogeneous surface heating. The greatest turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) is produced in the case with the largest heterogeneity scale, whilst the TKE in the other heterogeneous cases is close to that for the homogeneous case. This result indicates that the TKE is not enhanced unless the scale of the heterogeneous surface heating is large enough. The potential temperature variance is enhanced more significantly by a larger surface heterogeneity scale. But this effect diminishes with increasing CBL height, which implies that the turbulent eddy structures are changed during the CBL development. Analyses show that there are two types of organized turbulent eddies: one relates to the thermal circulations induced by the heterogeneous surface heating, whilst the other identifies with the inherent turbulent eddies (large eddies) induced by the free convection. At the early stage of the CBL development, the dominant scale of the organized turbulent eddies is controlled by the scale of the surface heterogeneity. With time increasing, the original pattern breaks up, and the vertical velocity eventually displays horizontal structures similar to those for the homogeneous heating case. It is found that after this transition, the values of λ/z _i (λ is the dominant horizontal scale of the turbulent eddies, z _i is the boundary-layer height) ≈1.6, which is just the aspect ratio of large eddies in the CBL.     

Parameter sensitivity of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model

 The sensitivity of a coupled model to the oceanic vertical diffusion coefficient κ _v is examined. This is compared to the sensitivity of an ocean-only model forced by mixed boundary conditions (BC). The atmospheric component of the coupled model is a moist energy balance model. The ocean component is a 12-level geostrophic model, defined on a midlatitude β-plane. Atmosphere and ocean are coupled through the fluxes of heat and moisture at their interface. The coupled model contains a number of feedback processes which are not represented in the ocean-only model. This results in a temperature and salinity response to κ _v which is stronger in the coupled model than in the ocean-only model. On the other hand, there is a weaker response in oceanic processes such as meridional heat transport, deep-water formation at high latitudes, etc. Ocean-only sensitivity experiments were also performed with modified BCs, which parametrise the feedback processes included in the coupled model. These are the modified thermal BC of Rahmstorf and Willebrand and a modified freshwater BC proposed in the present study. Large-scale features of the response in oceanic surface fields are well represented with modified BCs. However, the sensitivity of the deep ocean temperature is only partly captured due to local differences in the surface response. The scaling behavior of the zonal overturning stream function was found to depend on the surface BCs. In contrast to this, the meridional overturning stream function basically scales with κ^0.5 _v in all sensitivity experiments. Differences in the heat transport response among the experiments are thus primarily related to differences in the temperature response. Received: 28 February 1997/Accepted: 12 September 1997