The space-time structure of oil and gas field growth in a complex depositional system

Shortly after the discovery of an oil and gas field, an initial estimate is usually made of the ultimate recovery of the field. With the passage of time, this initial estimate is almost always revised upward. The phenomenon of the growth of the expected ultimate recovery of a field, which is known as field growth, is important to resource assessment analysts for several reasons. First, field growth is the source of a large part of future additions to the inventory of proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas in most petroliferous areas of the world. Second, field growth introduces a large negative bias in the forecast of the future rates of discovery of oil and gas fields made by discovery process models. In this study, the growth in estimated ultimate recovery of oil and gas in fields made up of sandstone reservoirs formed in a complex depositional environment (Frio strand plain exploration play) is examined. The results presented here show how the growth of oil and gas fields is tied directly to the architectural element of the shoreline processes and tectonics that caused the deposition of the individual sand bodies hosting the producible hydrocarbon.     

Natural Geological Weighing Lysimeters: Calibration Tools for Satellite and Ground Surface Gravity Monitoring of Subsurface Water-Mass Change

Increased accuracy in measuring temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field allow inprinciple the use of gravity observations to deduce subsurface water-mass changes. This canbe with respect to a small area, or as a larger spatial average of water mass change usinggravity observations from low-altitude satellites, such as the forthcoming GRACE mission.At both scales, there is a need to validate gravity-based estimates against field recordings ofactual subsurface water-mass variations. In practice, this could prove difficult because thespatial integral of all water-storage change components can be subject to considerable fieldmeasurement error. An alternative approach to the validation process is proposed by whichsuitable geological formations are utilized as giant weighing devices to directly measure area-integratedwater-mass changes. The existence of such natural geological weighing lysimetersis demonstrated using observations from a replicated experimental site in New Zealand. Sitesof this type could be used to verify water-storage change estimates derived from sensitiveground surface gravity instrumentation. In addition, geological lysimeters could be used tomake local checks on the accuracy of any estimated regional water-mass time series, whichis proposed for satellite calibration. The land area weighed by a geological lysimeter increaseswith formation depth and it is speculated that recordings made at oil well depth may allowdirect monitoring of subsurface water mass changes at the regional scale.     

Lake levels in the southern Bolivian Altiplano (19°–21°S.) during the Late Glacial based on diatom studies

This study is focused on the endorheic Uyni-Coipasa Basin located in the southern Bolivian Altiplano. Stratigraphical and fossil diatom studies based on a detailed radiocarbon chrnology revealed six phases in water-level changes and paleosalinity variations. At 15,430±80 yr B.P., lacustrine conditions settled in the southern Bolivian Altiplano. A saline lake, characterized by benthic meso-metasaline species, reached +4 m altitude above the present bottom of the basin. After 15,430±80 yr B.P., the level rapidly rose to +27 m, as suggested by a tychoplanktonic mesosaline flora. Between 14,500 years and 13,000 years, finely lanminated sediments at +32 m contained successively a dominance of epiphytic mesosaline to hypersaline species and tychoplanktonic oligosaline diatoms, indicating weak fluctuations in water-level and salinity. At 13,000 years, strong changes in the diatom flora occurred; epiphytic oligo-hypersaline diatoms were replaced by planktonic meso-polysaline species. They indicate a deep salt lake (the lake reached +100 m). After 12,000 years, the lake level abruptly dropped, as suggested by fluviatile sediments with a benthic mesopolysaline diatom flora. The main lake was replaced by shallow saline ponds. A wet pulse occurred at 11,400 years, characterized by low water level (+7 m) and high salinity. This lacustrine phase remained until 10,400 yr B.P. These data indicate changes in Precipitation minus Evaporation (P-E). Our regional interpretations are based on a comparison with teh available data on the northern (Lake Titicaca) and southern (Lipez are) Bolivian Altiplano and on the northern Chilean Altiplano (Atacama Desert).     

Setting minimum head capsule abundance and taxa deletion criteria in chironomid-based inference models

Criteria for removing training set lakes and taxa in chironomidbased inference models, due to low abundances, have largely been ad hoc. We used an anoxia inference model and a hypolimnetic oxygen model from southcentral Ontario to determine what effect subfossil head capsule abundance and taxa deletion criteria have on fossil inference statistics. Results from six training set lakes suggest that a minimum abundance of 40–50 head capsules is sufficient for use in inference models, however more diverse samples likely require more than 50 head capsules. Taxa deletion criteria substantially improved the predictive ability of inference models (lowered the root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP)). The common practice of including taxa with only 2% abundance in at least two lakes was one of the deletion criteria that much improved inference models. Similar deletion criteria, such as 2% in at least 3 lakes and 3% in at least 1 lake, produced comparable improvements (up to 18% reduction in RMSEP).     

Chironomids as indicators of climate change: a 100‐lake training set from a subarctic region of northern Sweden (Lapland)

Multivariate numerical analyses (DCA, CCA) were used to study the distribution of chironomids from surface sediments of 100 lakes spanning broad ecoclimatic conditions in northern Swedish Lapland. The study sites range from boreal forest to alpine tundra and are located in a region of relatively low human impact. Of the 19 environmental variables measured, ordination by CCA identified mean July air temperature as one of the most significant variables explaining the distribution and the abundance of chironomids. Lossonignition (LOI), maximum lake depth and mean January air temperature also accounted for significant variation in chironomid assemblages. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate mean July air temperature from sedimentary chironomid assemblages using weightedaveraging partial least squares regression (WAPLS). The coefficient of determination was relatively high (r² = 0.65) with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on jack-knifing) of 1.13 °C and maximum bias of 2.1 °C, indicating that chironomids can provide useful quantitative estimates of past changes in mean July air temperature. The paper focuses mainly on the relationship between chironomid composition and July air temperature, but the relationship to LOI and depth are also discussed.     

The sedimentary and geochemical record of Neogene-Quaternary water bodies in the Dead Sea Basin - inferences for the regional paleoclimatic history

Several waterbodies occupied the tectonic depressions along the Dead Sea transform during the NeogeneQuaternary. The earliest of these water bodies was the marine Sedom lagoon, which produced the SedomDead Sea brine. After the disconnection of the Sedom lagoon from the open sea several lakes were developed in the Dead Sea basinJordan Valley. Lake Amora (Samra) that existed from early to late Pleistocene, Lake Lisan (~ 70–15 kyr B.P.), and the Holocene Dead Sea. The lacustrine water bodies in the Dead Sea basin behave as amplifier lakes whose size and depth reflect the changing climatic conditions in the region. Lake level and limnological conditions of Lake Amora are not yet known, nevertheless, the lake probably extended over a large part of the Dead Sea basin-Jordan Valley. Lake Lisan level changed between ~ 330 and ~ 150 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.). Its maximum elevation was reached at ~ 27–23 kyr B.P. during marine isotope stage 2. Its minimum elevation was reached at ~ 47–43 kyr during marine isotope stage 3. Lake Lisan began to recede at ~ 17–15 kyr B.P. and at 12–11 kyr B.P. the postLisan water body declined to its minimum level. During most of the Holocene the lake (paleoDead Sea) stabilized at ~ 400 m b.s.l.The limnological evolution of water bodies in the Dead Sea basin reflects the climatic conditions in the region during the late Pleistocene, which fluctuated between wetter and drier periods. During Lisan time these fluctuations appear to be modulated by the cold and warm cycles, respectively in the northern Hemisphere. This relation is less obvious in the postLisan water body, where the strongest lake drop appears to occur during the Younger Dryas cold event.     

Intrinsic sample methods for mineral exploration and resource assessment

We report on an objective methodology, referred to as intrinsic sample methodology, for the delineation of exploration target areas or resource areas for assessment. Important features of the methodology include (1) identification of recognition criteria for critical genetic factors, (2) synthesis of new variables from enhanced geodata, (3) estimation of logit probability models, and (4) cutting of estimated logit probabilities to delineate exploration targets or resource areas. The methodology is demonstrated on the Walker Lake quadrangle of Nevada and California.     

Variation in the composition of Lake Bonneville marl: a potential key to lake-level fluctuations and paleoclimate

Lake Bonneville marl provides a stratigraphic record of lake history preserved in its carbonate minerals and stable isotopes. We have analyzed the marl in shallow cores taken at three localities in the Bonneville basin. Chronology for the cores is provided by dated volcanic ashes, ostracode biostratigraphy, and a distinctive lithologic unit believed to have been deposited during and immediately after the Bonneville Flood.A core taken at Monument Point at the north shore of Great Salt Lake encompasses virtually the entire Bonneville lake cycle, including the 26.5 ka Thiokol basaltic ash at the base and deposits representing the overflowing stage at the Provo shoreline at the top of the core. Two cores from the Old River Bed area near the threshold between the Sevier basin and the Great Salt Lake basin (the main body of Lake Bonneville) represent deposition from the end of the Stansbury oscillation ( 20 ka) to post-Provo time ( 13 ka), and one core from near Sunstone Knoll in the Sevier basin provides a nearly complete record of the period when Lake Bonneville flooded the Sevier basin (20–13 ka).In all cores, percent calcium carbonate, the aragonite to calcite ratio, and percent sand were measured at approximately 2-cm intervals, and ¹⁸O and ¹³C were determined in one core from the Old River Bed area. The transgressive period from about 20 ka to 15 ka is represented in all cores, but the general trends and the details of the records are different, probably as a result of water chemistry and water balance differences between the main body and the Sevier basin because they were fed by different rivers and had different hypsometries. The Old River Bed marl sections are intermediate in position and composition between the Monument Point and Sunstone Knoll sections. Variations in marl composition at the Old River Bed, which are correlated with lake-level changes, were probably caused by changes in the relative proportions of water from the two basins, which were caused by shifts in water balance in the lake.This is the second paper in a series of papers published in this issue on Climatic and Tectonic Rhythms in Lake Deposits.     

Sub-sampling unconsolidated sediments: A solution for the preparation of undistrubed thin-sections from clay‐rich sediments

Using the principles of electroosmosis, a subsampling technique for clay-rich sediments is introduced that produces undisturbed thinsections from sediment cores. The fragile sample remains in the same disposable box throughout the process, preventing collapse of its structure during subsampling, manipulation and impregnation, as well as other potential problems.     

Environmental changes in an alpine lake (Gossenköllesee, austria) over the last two centuries – the influence of air temperature on biological parameters

Changes in microfossils (diatoms, chrysophytes, chironomids and cladocera remains), geochemistry and deposition of atmospheric pollutants have been investigated in the sediment records of the alpine lake Gossenköllesee (Tyrol, Austria) spanning the last two centuries. The sediment records were compared with seasonal and annual air temperature trends calculated for the elevation (2417 m a.s.l.) and the geographical position (47° 1346N, 11° 0051E) of the lake, and with precipitation records available since 1866 from Innsbruck. Temperature trends followed a 20–30 year oscillation between cold and warm periods. Regarding long-term changes, temperature trends showed a U-shaped trend between 1780 and 1950, followed by a steep increase since 1975.Physical, geochemical, and organic parameters were not controlled by air temperature. Among the biological records only diatoms and chrysophytes reacted to air temperature changes: the relative abundance of planktonic diatoms increased during warm periods and changes in mean annual alpine air temperature explained 36.5% of their variation. The relation between abundance of seasonal stomatocyst types and air temperature varied on two different time scales: while summer stomatocysts were influenced by short term temperature fluctuations, the autumn stomatocysts were affected only by the long term changes. Other biological parameters exhibited a constant species composition (chironomids, pigments) or changes were small and independent of temperature (cladocera). Spheroidal carbonaceous fly-ash particles, and trends in Pb and Cr indicated increasing deposition of atmospheric pollutants but had no detectable effects on the biological parameters either. In respect to temperature variations over the last 200 years, this alpine lake is much less sensitive than expected and has thus to be regarded as a well buffered site. However, temperature alone is not sufficient to understand changes in species composition and other biogeochemical processes with unknown historical patterns might have affected species composition more strongly.     

The destruction of the past: Nonrenewable cultural resources

Destruction of cultural resources has increased dramatically in the last quarter of the 20th century as a result of two forces: first, development and construction, and second, the astonishing explosion of demand for primitive and prehistoric art. On the cover: Rock art of the Mimbres Culture at the Pony Hills site in south-west New Mexico. Similar rock art nearby has been destroyed by pistol shots or chipped out and illegally sold. Photo by Andrew Gulliford, Public History Program, Middle Tennessee State University.For the purposes of Legacy, the term cultural resource refers to both archeological and architectural resources. For archaeology, it includes, but is not limited to, traditions, lifeways, cultural and religious practices, and other institutions to which a community, neighborhood, Native American tribe, or other group ascribes cultural significance, together with any artifacts and real property associated with such elements. For architecture, it includes, but is not limited to, buildings, sites, districts, structures, or objects, landscapes, and vistas. In addition, the term encompasses historic documents and relics.     

Hubbert’s petroleum production model: an evaluation and implications for World Oil Production Forecasts

Following Hubberts successful prediction of the timing of US peak oil production, Hubberts model has been used extensively to predict peak oil production elsewhere. However, forecasts of world and regional peak oil and natural gas production using Hubberts methodology usually have failed, leading to the implicit belief that such predictions always will fail and that we need not worry about finite resources. A careful examination of Hubberts approach indicates that the most important reasons for his success in the US were stable markets, the high growth rate of demand, ready availability of low cost imports, and a reasonable estimate of easily extractable reserves. This analysis also shows that his model cannot predict ultimate oil reserves and that it should be considered an econometric model. Building on Hubberts vital insight, that cheap fossil fuel reserves are knowable and finite, one can state that for world peak oil production, political constraints should be much more important than resource constraints.     

Abrupt changes in climatic conditions across the late-glacial/Holocene transition on the N. E. Tibet-Qinghai Plateau: evidence from Lake Qinghai, China

A multi-proxy investigation of two sediment cores from the large closed-basin Lake Qinghai provides evidence of abrupt changes in paleolimnological conditions across the late-glacial/Holocene transition. The chronology of the lacustrine sediment sequence is framed by four AMS ¹⁴C ages for aquatic-plant macrofossil seeds. Four distinct stratigraphic units are identified on the basis of abrupt shifts in lithology, carbonate composition, ¹⁸O of authigenic carbonates, magnetic susceptibility characteristics, and total nitrogen content. These units represent four environmental stages that were each initiated by three abrupt changes in hydro-climatic regime at 11,600, 10,700, and 10,000 ¹⁴C yrs B.P. Each of the four environmental stages thus represents a characteristic precipitation-to-evaporation balance for the lake catchment. The paleoenvironmental evidence indicates that the lake before 11,600 ¹⁴C yrs B.P. was very shallow with carbonate production and organic productivity much lower than in the Holocene, suggesting a much colder and drier climate than in the Holocene. From 11,600 to 10,700 ¹⁴C yrs B.P., the presence of clastic laminations and Ruppia fossil seeds suggests an increased inflow of sediment-laden waters into the lake. Between 10,700 and 10,000 ¹⁴C yrs B.P., the development of a carbonate playa lake indicates that a negative water balance persisted. From 10,000 ¹⁴C yrs B.P. an abrupt increase in rainfall is suggested by a sudden termination of the playa lake environment and the diluted lake waters, as evidenced by negative shift in both total carbonate content and ¹⁸O values of mineral carbonate. However, the lake level during the early Holocene was about 20 m shallower than today, indicating that the effective moisture then was much lower than it is today. The multi-proxy record suggests a step-wise pattern of climatic change across the late-glacial/Holocene transition along with abrupt shifts in P-E balance on the N. E. Tibet-Qinghai Plateau. This pattern is characterized by reorganization of Asian monsoon circulation, which probably was determined by increasing summer insolation and changes in surface boundary conditions accompanying regional deglaciation. The arid event at 10,700–10,000 ¹⁴C yrs B.P. is interpreted as a Younger Dryas equivalent, although climatic cooling is not indicated by the evidence at hand.     

Sequential indicator conditional simulation and indicator kriging applied to discrimination of dolomitization in GER 63-channel imaging spectrometer data

Laboratory reflectance spectra of synthetic mixtures of the carbonate minerals calcite and dolomite were measured in the visible and near-infrared wavelength region (0.4–2.5 m) using a high-spectral resolution laboratory spectrometer. The instrument measured reflectivity with an accuracy of 0.001 m, allowing detailed resolution of the carbonate spectrum. The spectra of calcite and dolomite could be characterized by the presence of a strong absorption band centered at 2.3465 m for pure calcite and at 2.3039 m for pure dolomite. Nine mixtures of intermediate composition were analyzed demonstrating that the position of the carbonate absorption band is semilinearly related to the calcite content of the sample. Theoretically, this model allows mapping of dolomitization from high-spectral resolution remotely sensed imagery, GER 63-channel imaging spectrometer data from southern Spain were used to attempt such a mapping. First, pixels of vegetation were removed. For the remaining pixels, the wavelength center of the carbonate absorption band was detected and converted to a category of calcite fraction. The percentage of calcite for the remaining pixels was estimated using direct indicator kriging (IK) and sequential conditional indicator simulation, assuming that the calcite content could be represented as a category variable (SCIS category variable) and as a continuous variable (SCIS continuous variable). Four realizations of an SCIS (category variable) showed that on the average, 60 percent of the data was simulated in the same class and over 90 percent of the data within one class difference. A comparison with field samples showed that IK estimates of calcite content were within 20 percent accurate. The SCIS (continuous variable) does not perform as well with differences between –45% and +26% calcite; however, simulation reproduces the spatial variability better.     

Paleohydrology and paleochemistry of Lake Manitoba,Canada: the isotope and ostracode records

Lake Manitoba, the largest lake in the Prairie region of North America, contains a fine-grained sequence of late Pleistocene and Holocene sediment that documents a complex postglacial history. This record indicates that differential isostatic rebound and changing climate have interacted with varying drainage basin size and hydrologic budget to create significant variations in lake level and limnological conditions. During the initial depositional period in the basin, the Lake Agassiz phase (12–9 ka), ¹⁸O of ostracodes ranged from –16 to –5 (PDB), implying the lake was variously dominated by cold, dilute glacial meltwater and warm to cold, slightly saline water.Candona subtriangulata, which prefers cold, dilute water, dominates the most negative ¹⁸O intervals, when the basin was part of proglacial Lake Agassiz. At times during this early phase, the ¹⁸O of the lake abruptly shifted to higher values; euryhaline taxa such asC. rawsoni orLimnocythere ceriotuberosa, and halobiont taxa such asL. staplini orL. sappaensis are dominant in these intervals. This positive covariance of isotope and ostracode records implies that the lake level episodically fell, isolating the Lake Manitoba basin from the main glacial lake.¹⁸O values from inorganic endogenic Mg-calcite in the post-Agassiz phase of Lake Manitoba trend from –4 at 8 ka to –11 at 4.5 ka. We interpret that this trend indicates a gradually increasing influence of isotopically low (–20 SMOW) Paleozoic groundwater inflow, although periods of increased evaporation during this time may account for zones of less negative isotopic values. The ¹⁸O of this inorganic calcite abruptly shifts to higher values (–6) after 4.5 ka due to the combined effects of increased evaporative enrichment in a closed basin lake and the increased contribution of isotopically high surface water inflow on the hydrologic budget. After 2 ka, the ¹⁸O of the Mg-calcite fluctuates between –13 and –7, implying short-term variability in the lake's hydrologic budget, with values indicating the lake varied from outflow-dominated to evaporation-dominated. The ¹³C values of Mg-calcite remain nearly constant from 8 to 4.5 ka and then trend to higher values upward in the section. This pattern suggests primary productivity in the lake was initially constant but gradually increased after 4.5 ka.This is the sixth in a series of papers published in this issue on the paleolimnology of arid regions. These papers were presented at the Sixth International Palaeolimnology Symposium held 19–21 April, 1993 at the Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. Dr A. R. Chivas served as guest editor for these papers.     

Water isotopic and hydrochemical evolution of a lake chain in the northern Great Plains and its paleoclimatic implications

Oxygen isotopes and geochemistry from lake sediments are commonly used as proxies of past hydrologic and climatic conditions, but the importance of present-day hydrologic processes in controlling these proxies are sometimes not well established and understood. Here we use present-day hydrochemical data from 13 lakes in a hydrologically connected lake chain in the northern Great Plains (NGP) to investigate isotopic and solute evolution along a hydrologic gradient. The ¹⁸O and ²H of water from the chain of lakes, when plotted in ²H - ¹⁸O space, form a line with a slope of 5.9, indicating that these waters fall on an evaporation trend. However, 10 of the 13 lakes are isotopically similar (¹⁸O = –6 ± 1 VSMOW) and show no correlation with salinity (which ranges from 1 to 65). The lack of correlation implies that the isotopic composition of various source waters rather than in-lake evaporation is the main control of the ¹⁸O of the lakes. Groundwater, an important input in the water budget of this chain of lakes, has a lower ¹⁸O value (–16.7 in 1998) than that of mean annual precipitation (–11) owing to selective recharge from snow melt. For the lakes in this chain with salinity < 15, the water Mg/Ca ratios are strongly correlated with salinity, whereas Sr/Ca is not. The poor correlation between Sr/Ca and salinity results from uptake of Sr by endogenic aragonite. These new results indicate that ¹⁸O records may not be interpreted simply in term of climate in the NGP, and that local hydrology needs to be adequately investigated before a meaningful interpretation of sedimentary records can be reached.     

Diatoms and sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) population dynamics: Reconstructions of salmon-derived nutrients over the past 2,200 years in two lakes from Kodiak Island, Alaska

The return of hundreds to millions of adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), which have returned from the ocean to their natal nursery lake environment to spawn, can result in significant nutrient loading. By analyzing sedimentary diatom assemblages from nursery lakes, we demonstrated that a salmon-derived nutrient signal could be traced over time and be used to infer past sockeye salmon population dynamics. We conducted a 2,200 year paleolimnological study of two Alaskan sockeye salmon nursery lakes, Karluk and Frazer lakes. The two lakes are very similar, except that sockeye salmon were only introduced into Frazer Lake in 1951 (first spawners returned in 1956). In both lakes we found a strong correspondence between diatom assemblages and the number of adult salmon spawners recorded in the historical data (40 and 70 years for Frazer and Karluk lakes, respectively). Given this robust relationship, we then used our analyses of diatoms from Karluk Lake over the past 2,200 years to gain insight into salmon-derived nutrient loading changes (which are directly related to the number of sockeye salmon spawners). The diatom record from Karluk Lake recorded dramatic species changes on both decadal and century timescales, and was strongly correlated with an independent indicator of sockeye salmon abundances, ¹⁵N. Together, these data suggest pronounced variability in sockeye salmon abundances at Karluk Lake over the past 2,200 years. The direct impacts of regional environmental variability were not likely responsible for the patterns apparent in Karluk Lake, as the diatom and ¹⁵N profiles from Frazer Lake were relatively stable prior to the introduction of sockeye salmon. Application of total phosphorus transfer functions to the Karluk and Frazer lakes' diatom records revealed that sockeye salmon carcasses substantially increased the trophic status in these lakes, which has important implications for the health of juvenile salmon that rear in nursery lakes. Overall, this paper illustrates the potential use of diatoms in reconstructing past sockeye salmon population dynamics, which in turn can lead to a greater understanding of the mechanisms influencing abundances of sockeye salmon.     

A multi-proxy study of Holocene environmental change in the Maya Lowlands of Peten, Guatemala

We used multiple variables in a sediment core from Lake Peten-Itza, Peten, Guatemala, to infer Holocene climate change and human influence on the regional environment. Multiple proxies including pollen, stable isotope geochemistry, elemental composition, and magnetic susceptibility in samples from the same core allow differentiation of natural versus anthropogenic environmental changes. Core chronology is based on AMS ¹⁴C measurement of terrestrial wood and charcoal and thus avoids the vagaries of hard-water-lake error. During the earliest Holocene, prior to 9000 ¹⁴C yr BP, the coring site was not covered by water and all proxies suggest that climatic conditions were relatively dry. Water covered the coring site by 9000 ¹⁴C yr BP, coinciding with filling of other lakes in Peten and farther north on the Yucatan Peninsula. During the early Holocene (9000 to 6800 ¹⁴C yr BP), pollen data suggest moist conditions, but high ¹⁸O values are indicative of relatively high E/P. This apparent discrepancy may be due to a greater fractional loss of the lake's water budget to evaporation during the early stages of lake filling. Nonetheless, conditions were moist enough to support semi-deciduous lowland forest. Decrease in ¹⁸O values and associated change in ostracod species at 6800 ¹⁴C yr BP suggest a transition to even moister conditions. Decline in lowland forest taxa beginning 5780 ¹⁴C yr BP may indicate early human disturbance. By 2800 ¹⁴C yr BP, Maya impact on the environment is documented by accelerated forest clearance and associated soil erosion. Multiple proxies indicate forest recovery and soil stabilization beginning 1100 to 1000 ¹⁴C yr BP, following the collapse of Classic Maya civilization.     

A diatom-based inference model for autumn epilimnetic total phosphorus concentration and its application to a presently eutrophic boreal lake

A diatom transfer function to infer epilimnetic total phosphorus (TP) concentration was derived using surface sediment diatom data from 68 medium-sized (10–1000 ha) lakes in Southern Finland. Publicly available monitoring records were used in lake selection to avoid gradients caused by pH and humic substances. Constrained and partially constrained ordinations indicated that TP was an important variable influencing diatom assemblages. A long floristic gradient in relation to TP was also apparent and therefore an inference model was developed for TP using unimodal-based regression and calibration methods. The final model included 61 lakes with epilimnetic TP concentrations between 3 and 89 g P l^–1, measured during the autumnal circulation period. It has a jackknifed-estimated root mean squared error of prediction of 0.16 log g P l^–1, a maximum bias of 0.28 log g P l^–1, and an r² _jack of 0.76.The model was tested in the presently eutrophic Lake Valkjärvi (epilimnetic [TP] 60–85 g P l^–1), located in Southern Finland. It successfully predicted the measured autumnal epilimnetic TP concentration for the past twenty years and the changes in inferred [TP] reflected disturbances known to have occurred before that time. The diatom-based inferences show that Lake Valkjärvi was oligo-mesotrophic as late as the 1930's and has become eutrophic because of nutrient inputs from agriculture and, especially, municipalities. However, epilimnetic TP concentration has not increased further.     

Climatic and anthropogenic influence on the stable isotope record from bulk carbonates and ostracodes in Lake Neuchâ, Switzerland, during the last two millennia

Lake Neuchåtel is a medium sized, hard-water lake, lacking varved sediments, situated in the western Swiss Lowlands at the foot of the Jura Mountains. Stable isotope data (18O and 13C) from both bulk carbonate and ostracode calcite in an 81 cm long, radiocarbon-dated sediment core represent the last 1500 years of Lake Neuchåtel's environmental history. Comparison between this isotopic and other palaeolimnologic data (mineralogical, geochemical, palynological, etc.) helps to differentiate between anthropogenic and natural factors most recently affecting the lake. An increase in lacustrine productivity (450–650AD ca), inferred from the positive trend in 13C values of bulk carbonate, is related to medieval forest clearances and the associated nutrient budget changes. A negative trend in both the bulk carbonate and ostracode calcite 18O values between approximately 1300 and 1500AD, is tentatively interpreted as due to a cooling in mean air temperature at the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age. Negative trends in bulk carbonate 18O and 13C values through the uppermost sediments, which have no equivalent in ostracode calcite isotopic values, are concomitant with the recent onset of eutrophication in the lake. Isotopic disequilibrium during calcite precipitation, probably due to kinetic factors in periods of high productivity is postulated as the mechanism to explain the associated negative isotopic trends, although the effect of a shift of the calcite precipitation towards the warmer months cannot be excluded.