模糊法在县城地质灾害危险性评价中的应用

通过对甘肃省东乡县"3·2"特大滑坡地质灾害的发育条件、形成机制及灾害的发展趋势分析,并结合室内试验和现场勘测结果,计算得出了滑坡的稳定性现状,在此基础上,提出了滑坡灾害的防治思路、防治对策以及主要的防治工程措施,为预防和防治类似滑坡灾害提供了经验参考。     

三峡库区巴东县大型涉水滑坡工程治理效果评价

三峡库区大型涉水滑坡的工程治理效果,已经成为水库能否长期按要求正常运营的关键问题。在统计分析三峡库区二期、三期地质灾害防治工程特点的基础上,以库区巴东县15个典型已治理大型涉水滑坡为研究对象,汇总、分析了其工程防治方案,总结了大型涉水滑坡灾害防治工程措施以抗滑桩工程、护坡工程和排水工程为主的技术特点,并根据多次实际调查结果指出巴东县已治理大型涉水滑坡普遍存在的宏观变形问题。在此基础上,结合工程治理流程、现场调查结果,考虑后期运营时可能发生变化的重要影响因素,采用层次分析法,建立了一个兼具时效性和预见性的多层次、多指标的综合评价体系,并基于综合评价值设定了评价标准,对工程治理效果进行分级。最后,以巴东县XL01滑坡的工程治理效果评价为实例,检验此方法的实用性和有效性,并对巴东县典型已治理大型涉水滑坡的工程治理效果进行评价,结合实际调查结果,指出巴东县大型涉水滑坡工程治理效果良好,但仍存在一些问题。     

滑坡灾害防治工程效果评价方法初探

滑坡防治工程效果评价是一项综合判断与分析的系统工程。通过开展大量滑坡灾害防治工程现场调研,建立了包括滑坡基本要素、治理设计、施工组织、稳定状况、治理效益5项一级评价指标和11项二级指标的评价体系。基于综合模糊层次评价法确定各指标权重并计算防治效果最大隶属度。以三峡库区刘家包滑坡为例,计算表明防治工程效果为优秀,与实际情况相符,验证了此方法的可靠性。     

浅论古河道的变迁对滑坡稳定性的影响

本文以重庆市三峡库区后续工作规划地质灾害防治项目忠县吊钟坝滑坡的详细勘查工程为例,分析了古河道的变迁对滑坡稳定性的影响,对准确分析临江（河）滑坡成因,针对性提出滑坡防治方案有一定的指导意义。并根据工程实际,提出处理措施建议。     

乌苏市赛力克提牧场滑坡稳定性及防治措施分析

乌苏市赛力克提牧场地质灾害的发生将对滑坡体后缘平台上村民生命财产安全造成威胁。在对研究区滑坡地质灾害发育特征和形成机制分析的基础上,通过定性和定量相结合的方法对滑坡灾害的稳定性进行了评价,最后提出了防治措施。通过对新疆乌苏市赛力克提牧场滑坡灾害稳定性及防治措施的分析,可以为当地政府对滑坡灾害的防治工作提供地学基础。     

灵宝大湖滑坡形成机制分析及防治对策研究

论述了大湖滑坡发生和发展的地质环境背景,分析了大湖滑坡灾害发育现状及形成机制,并对其发展趋势、危害程度进行了预测;提出大湖滑坡灾害的防治,要以防为主,避让与治理相结合,工程措施与非工程措施相结合,要细致详细的防灾预案,采取必要饿防滑支挡、排水和生物等工程措施;加强对滑坡区地质环境防治管理。     

新疆吉木萨尔县贾家湾村滑坡防治工程

吉木萨尔县贾家湾村滑坡长期威胁着当地人民生命财产的安全,对其进行有效防治,已迫在眉睫。根据该滑坡灾害防治工程勘察、设计、施工全过程的资料成果,对其进行了进一步整理,在此基础上对滑坡产生的原因、稳定性、主要影响因素做系统分析,提出合理、可行的桩板墙防治工程措施。并对治理工程施工注意的问题和治理效果做了分析评价,为新疆后期的类似土质滑坡防治工程提供一些借鉴。     

三峡库区万州和平广场滑坡体基坑开挖触发变形滑动机制及防治措施研究

三峡库区城镇存在大量已治理滑坡,在滑坡范围内进行工程建设时易引发滑坡的再次变形。以万州万达广场深基坑开挖引发和平广场滑坡局部变形的工程事件为例,介绍了工程地质背景和变形特征,采用数值计算等方法对其变形形成机制、变形破坏产生的主要原因进行了研究,在此基础上提出了相应的防治措施,并运用数值模拟分析与施工监测结果相结合的方法,对防治加固效果进行了评价。结果表明防治措施取得了良好的效果。     

三峡库区巨鱼沱滑坡地质特征及防治研究

介绍了三峡库区万州巨鱼沱滑坡的结构特征和变形特征,从滑坡形成条件和诱发变形因素两方面分析了滑坡形成的原因,对滑坡在各工况下的稳定性进行了分析和计算,提出了以预应力锚索抗滑桩为主的综合治理措施,对三峡库区滑坡灾害的研究和治理具有参考价值。     

基于数据挖掘的三峡库区特大滑坡变形关联规则研究

从实测数据中分析滑坡灾害的成因机理,对于准确识别潜在危险区与及时制定防治措施十分重要。由于现场监测数据的数量庞大、来源多样,常规的数据处理方法难以从海量监测数据中提取出有用的信息,进而对滑坡变形演化趋势作出正确评价和预测。本文基于经典数据挖掘方法中的两步聚类法与关联规则分析,提出了滑坡变形行为的关联分析挖掘技术,并以长江三峡库区新铺滑坡为例,对库水位波动及降雨影响下的特大滑坡位移速率进行了关联分析。结果表明:该滑坡的变形受库水位高程水平、库水位波动速率与降雨强度等因素的多重影响,水位下降、强降雨与滑坡变形密切相关;滑坡不同空间位置处的变形影响因素存在差异,由坡脚至坡顶,库水位波动的影响水平依次降低,降雨强度的影响水平逐渐增强。本文提出的数据挖掘方法可定量分析滑坡变形的控制因素,并通过与实测数据的对比验证了相关规则的可靠性,这对于海量监测数据条件下滑坡灾害的成因分析有重要意义。     

Economic benefit assessment of the geo-hazard monitoring and warning engineering system in the Three Gorges Reservoir area: a case study of the landslide in Zigui

The completion and operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir in China have increased the frequency of geo-hazards and dangers in the area. To monitor and to warn of geo-hazards effectively, the Chinese government has invested billions of funds for constructing a monitoring and warning engineering system. Similar to other social infrastructure investments, a reasonable assessment of investment returns is necessary. Therefore, this study proposes an economic benefit assessment model, which considers both the expected and the actual values. The economic benefit of the geo-hazard monitoring and warning engineering in the Three Gorges Reservoir areas is evaluated. Based on the engineering characteristics, the model reasonably defines the frontier of the input and output and adds the casualties and the losses of ecological environment into the economic benefit evaluation index system. A case study on the Zhangjiawan landslide in Guojiaba Town, Zigui County, was conducted. The evaluation results show that (1) land has the largest benefit in direct reductional loss (total of 56.7 %), while the largest indirect reductional losses of the hazard-bearing bodies are in agricultural production and ecological environment (total of 97.6 %); (2) the costs-to-expected return ratio of landslide monitoring and warning engineering is 1:280, whereas the cost-to-actual benefit ratio is 1:30; (3) the accumulation of relevant information and the public knowledge of geological disasters should be strengthened.     

Economic benefit assessment of the geo-hazard monitoring and warning engineering system in the Three Gorges Reservoir area: a case study of the landslide in Zigui

The completion and operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir in China have increased the frequency of geo-hazards and dangers in the area. To monitor and to warn of geo-hazards effectively, the Chinese government has invested billions of funds for constructing a monitoring and warning engineering system. Similar to other social infrastructure investments, a reasonable assessment of investment returns is necessary. Therefore, this study proposes an economic benefit assessment model, which considers both the expected and the actual values. The economic benefit of the geo-hazard monitoring and warning engineering in the Three Gorges Reservoir areas is evaluated. Based on the engineering characteristics, the model reasonably defines the frontier of the input and output and adds the casualties and the losses of ecological environment into the economic benefit evaluation index system. A case study on the Zhangjiawan landslide in Guojiaba Town, Zigui County, was conducted. The evaluation results show that (1) land has the largest benefit in direct reductional loss (total of 56.7 %), while the largest indirect reductional losses of the hazard-bearing bodies are in agricultural production and ecological environment (total of 97.6 %); (2) the costs-to-expected return ratio of landslide monitoring and warning engineering is 1:280, whereas the cost-to-actual benefit ratio is 1:30; (3) the accumulation of relevant information and the public knowledge of geological disasters should be strengthened.

     

三峡水库区巴东县文家滑坡特征及其防治对策

三峡水库区地质条件复杂,是我国地质灾害的多发区及重灾区.文家滑坡位于巴东县内龙船河国家旅游区入口处,神龙溪大桥南侧.论文在研究了三峡水库区文家滑坡的工程地质条件及滑坡体基本特征的基础上,介绍了该滑坡的结构及变形特征.从滑坡形成条件、诱发变形因素两方面分析了滑坡形成的原因及诱发滑体失稳的主要因素,并结合工程实际境况,对滑坡治理进行初步研究,提出了一些可行的防治措施和建议,为三峡地区相同类型的滑坡的治理提供借鉴.     

Numerical simulation of dynamic catastrophe of slope instability in three Gorges reservoir area based on FEM and SPH method

Natural Hazards - Affected by continuous heavy rainfall, a large number of landslide disasters occur every year in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, which causes serious property loss and...     

三峡库区凉水井滑坡成因及复活机制探讨

三峡库区首次175m试验性蓄水过程中,凉水井滑坡出现了险情,受到地质灾害防控、管理相关部门及社会各界的广泛关注。在对凉水井滑坡进行调查、勘查的基础上,基于对地形地貌、物质组成及地质结构等的分析,研究了该滑坡的成因机制; 结合数值模拟结果,探讨了该滑坡的复活机制。研究表明：（1）凉水井滑坡为一老滑坡,由两次滑移形成,是三峡水库运行过程中,受江水浸泡及水位变动影响,由上部滑体变形错动诱发复活的推移式滑坡; （2）在三峡库区蓄水运行的不同阶段,水位通过影响不同部位的滑带而降低滑坡整体稳定性; （3）由于滑体中前部厚度大,下部块石粒径巨大,块石与滑床间形成点接触,滑动面上产生砥柱作用,在中间相对较缓段产生较强的锁固效应,使得滑坡未发生失稳。     

三峡库区塌岸预测新方法——岸坡结构法

水库塌岸是三峡库区重大地质灾害之一.通过三峡库区数百段库岸的塌岸地质现场调查和预测分析的基础上,提出了类似三峡这种山区河道型水库的塌岸预测新方法--岸坡结构法(RBSM),并给出了详细的图解方法和预测步骤.同时,开展了二滩、宝珠寺和龚咀三个运行中的类比水库和三峡水库(139m蓄水)的塌岸预测检验,验证结果表明该方法适宜于三峡水库以及类似的山区河道型水库塌岸预测,从而为水库塌岸预测与防治工程提供重要依据.     

三峡库区谭家河滑坡变形特征及影响因素研究

针对三峡库区滑坡这一地质灾害的特点,以库区谭家河滑坡为例,通过野外地质调研得到滑坡的变形特征和监测数据,结合滑坡的工程地质条件分析影响滑坡变形的两大因素：库水位和降雨。谭家河滑坡位于长江右岸,自三峡大坝蓄水以来滑坡变形更加明显,所以研究谭家河滑坡变形与库水位及降雨等诱发因素的关系是非常有必要的。研究表明：谭家河滑坡处于初始变形阶段,滑坡中部和后缘变形较快,表现为渐进推移式滑坡。谭家河滑坡在库水位和降雨叠加作用下变形更为显著,库水会软化土体,产生浮托力; 而降雨会降低滑带抗滑力,增加滑体总重度,增大下滑力和形成静水压力。特别是在库水位升高时,滑坡变形速率呈现突然增大,可认为谭家河滑坡是库水位抬升型滑坡。本文结合三峡库区库水位变化及降雨量,定量分析两者与滑坡变形的关系,有理有据,为以后滑坡的监测预警提供依据。     

A study of the factors influencing the occurrence of landslides in the Wushan area

Due to the complex natural geological conditions, many slope-related geological hazards occur in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China. This study focuses on the characteristics of landslide development and their underlying mechanisms in this area. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine the characteristics of landslide development in the Wushan area, including the landslide distribution as a function of the elevation, slope, landslide material composition, scale, lithology, boundary conditions, instability mechanism, stratigraphic age, attitude, and sliding direction. The mechanisms of slope instability and the effect on the occurrence of landslides are analyzed. This study provides important reference material for landslide research in the Three Gorges Reservoir area and similar stratigraphic areas.