不同因子处理方法对广西MOS方程降水预报准确率影响的试验

利用1995－1997年T106输出产品，以相同的数学回归模型对各种不同的因子处理方法生成的预报因子做广西89站的降水预报准确率对比试验，结果表明预报因子的选取与准确率关系极大。这也说明了选取合理的、有物理意义的因子是建立MOS降水预报方程成功与否的关键。     

用MOS法制作春季短期降水预报方程

利用欧洲数值预报图建立未来24小时小量以上降水预报方程。     

不同因子处理方法对广西MOS方程降水预报准确率影响的试验

利用１９９５—１９９７年Ｔ１０６输出产品，以相同的数学回归模型对各种不同的因子处理方法生成的预报因子做广西８９站的降水预报准确率对比试验，结果表明预报因子的选取与准确率关系极大。这也说明了选取合理的、有物理意义的因子是建立ＭＯＳ降水预报方程成功与否的关键。     

T42MOS预报业务自动化系统

利用国家气象局发布的Ｔ４２数值预报产品，建立了黑龙江省３１个重点站的降水，极温，大风等ＭＯＳ预报方程，并对Ｔ４２初始资料进行破译，实现了ＭＯＳ预报业务运行自动化。     

滚动式利用数值预报产品制作单站气温预报的方法

用最优子集回归法，采用滚动式方法取舍样本资料，首先利用数值预报产品及盆地内单站的气温资料建立该站的最优子集回归方程，然后根据24—144小时的数值预报资料制作该站24-144小时的气温预报。     

用MOS法建立预报方程的试验流程

利用MOS预报方法建立预报方程试验系统的结构及功能 ,并提供了高效计算和反复试验的重要技术 ,充分考虑了不同地区站的地理气候特点 ,既适合同时建立多站、多要素方程 ,也能够进行单站、单要素的反复试验。     

利用最近资料改进MOS预报的方法

尝试了将变分技术应用于统计预报方法中，并以兰州地区1999年9～11月最高温度MOS预报为例进行了试验。结果表明，经过最新大气实况观测资料修正的MOS方程可以改善其预报效果。其改善程度与方程本身的预报能力有关。为了进一步说明问题，文中还提出了一个新的概念——方程预报水平。在此基础上发现了一个新的现象。即用本文提出的方法对MOS方程优化。其方程预报水平是稳定的。     

单站气温短时预报的气候统计方法

在分析单站气温变化基本特征的基础上，划分了云量、风向风速等对温度变化影响的分级，统计了各季节3小时的分类气温平均变量，研究探讨采用分类气温平均变量制作3小时短时气温预报的客观统计分析方法，经检验、试用效果良好。     

Elemental and Single Particle Aerosol Characterisation at a Background Station in Kazakhstan

Aerosol sampling in Kazakhstan was performed at a remote astronomical observatory in the Tien Shan mountain region. The background character of the site was considered by comparing the elemental concentrations, obtained by Energy Dispersive X-Ray Fluorescence (EDXRF), with those reported for other remote stations. On the basis of the variability of the elemental concentrations and the source of origin, the elements could be classified into two main groups. These findings, complemented with enrichment factor calculations revealed the first group of elements to be originating mainly from local sources, and the second group to be related to long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosol. Automated individual particle analysis by electron probe X-ray microanalysis (EPXMA) and subsequent cluster analysis resulted in the identification of 12 distinct aerosol particle types. Relative particle type abundances were converted to absolute abundances by estimating the particle number concentrations for the detected particles, exploring the seasonal particle variation. Based on the absolute abundances, a strong seasonal pattern was found for Si-Al-Fe-, Si-, Ca-S-Si-, Ca-Si-, Fe-Si- and Ti-Si-rich particles. These particle types can mainly be attributed to the local soil source. For most of the remaining particle types, a completely different seasonal trend was found, which can be related to anthropogenic emissions. Their abundance in winter can be related to long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols. As a result, these data can be representative for the Tien Shan site and may be useful to climate modellers and environmentalists.     

龙凤山区域大气本底台站反应性气体观测质量控制

实现对大气反应性气体的业务化观测是中国气象局大气成分观测的重要目标内容之一.为了满足大气本底观测业务的目标要求,在龙凤山区域大气本底观测站反应性气体观测系统2年来的业务试运行的实践经验的基础上,着重分析了涉及质量控制技术中零/跨检查和多点校准的执行情况,确定了执行零/跨检查、多点校准和零/跨调整的指导性频率,提出了基于校准信息的数据订正方法,简要阐述标准量值传递方案和仪器测试、检验和维护中所应注意的内容.     

Climate Station Analysis and Fitness for Purpose Assessment of 3053600 Kananaskis,Alberta

Kananaskis climate station 3053600 provides a climate record from 1939 to the present. The operational history of the station and the changes in its location are reviewed. Since 1939, the station has been operated by several different organizations and located at three different sites compromising the use of the data. Further, the metadata for this station is both inaccurate and incomplete. The fitness of this data for trend and other applications is assessed. The differences in the series between locations suggest that studies should be confined to using the data from a single location, and users of the data should be aware of the ongoing changes in the physical situation at the present location.     

单站寒潮自动预警系统的设计与实现

基于欧洲中心数值产品,设计开发了单站寒潮自动预警系统.系统可自动提取和计算单站相关数值预报产品,并根据单站寒潮标准,自动发布168 h内寒潮及降雨(雪)、大风等预警信息.经2006年10月2007年3月试用,系统对寒潮的漏报率为0%,空报率为34.2%,准确率为65.8%.     

单站寒潮自动预警系统的设计与实现

基于欧洲中心数值产品,设计开发了单站寒潮自动预警系统。系统可自动提取和计算单站相关数值预报产品,并根据单站寒潮标准,自动发布168 h内寒潮及降雨(雪)、大风等预警信息。经2006年10月2007年3月试用,系统对寒潮的漏报率为0%,空报率为34.2%,准确率为65.8%。     

Time-Dependent Solutions to the Fokker-Planck Equation of Maximum Reduced Air-Sea Coupling Climate Model

1. IntroductionAir-sea interaction is an important physical pro-cess in the climate system. Because oceans occupy twothirds of the earth's surface, and have a tremendousthermal inertia, oceans exert an extremely importantinfluence on atmospheric motion, and the air-sea inter-action becomes a core item of climate change studies.Contrarily, the atmosphere constrains the motion ofseawater through wind drifts and heat transfer. Withregard to the hotspot problem of global warming, theocean is a mos…