VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION OF CHINESE AGRICULTURE TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Globalclimatechangeanditspotentialinlliactsonhumanaffairshavebeenthesubjectofconsiderablediscussionwithintheaca相似文献   

GIS-based assessment of climate change impacts on forest habitable Aframomum corrorima(Braun) in Southwest Ethiopia coffee forest

Climate change is thought to have a greater impact on crops that require particular conditions for their productivity. Southwest Ethiopia is a region where important cash crops such as Coffea arabica and Aframomum corrorima(korerima) originate. These crops are known to require shade for their growth and productivity. This study was conducted to assess the impacts of climate change on an important but neglected cash crop of A. corrorima using GIS-based species distribution approaches. Local meteorological data and bioclimatic data from WorldClim were used to map past, present, and future distribution of the crop in the Coffee Forest System of Southwest Ethiopia. Moreover, 96 key informants were interviewed and completed questionnaires to complement the distribution modeling. The key informants mapped the history and present occurrences of A. corrorima and based on this, ground-truthing survey was conducted. The interpolation method of the Inverse Distance Weighted was used in ArcGIS 10.5 to develop bioclimatic variables for modeling past and present distribution while data from IPCC(AR_4) Emissions Scenarios was used for the future occurrence prediction using Principal Component Analysis. Eleven best bioclimatic variables were selected and MaxEnt was used to model past, present and future distribution of A. corrorima. The output of our model was validated using Area Under the Curve(AUC) approach. Temperature and precipitation are the most important environmental variable, then temperature increased by 1.3°C in the past(from 1988 to 2018) while it is predicted to increase further by at least 1.4°C before 2050. On the contrary, precipitation decreased by an average of 10.1 mm from the past while it is predicted to decrease further by 12.5 mm before 2050. Our model shows that the area suitable for korerima in 1988 was 20,638.2 ha and it was reduced by half and became 10,545.3 ha in 2018, similarly predicted to shrink into 3225.5 ha by 2050. The findings from the key informants confirm the model results whereby 89.1% of the respondent replied korerima producing area has been shifted into the mountains over the last 30 years(by 150 m a.s.l. from 1988 to 2018) and thus expected to be pushing up in the next 32 years(by 133 m before 2050). The community claims that the length of the rainy season of the area has been shortening from 9 months in the past to an average of 5.5 months recently which also coincides with increasing temperature. We conclude that with the changing climatic condition, the suitable habitat of korerima has already shrank by 48.9%(from 1988 to 2018) and the trend may lead to a shrink by 84.38% before 2050(from 1988 to 2050). Therefore, it is important to develop site-specific climate adaptation strategies for the region such as promoting alternative livelihoods and avoiding further coffee forest degradation and deforestation.     

Assessing the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on vegetation in southwest China

The topography and geomorphology of southwest China are complex, and the intensity of human activities not balanced. The impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on vegetation shows temporal and spatial differences. Therefore, we used normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)to analyze the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on vegetation in four provinces and municipality in the southwest China from 2000 to 2015. The results showed that(1) NDVI increased 0.004–...     

Quantitative assessment of impacts of climate and economic-technical factors on grain yield in Jilin Province from 1980 to 2008

Climate change is one of the most important challenges threatening agricultural grain yield and food security. Determining the factors influencing grain yield in Jilin Province and the weights of their contribution are a very important task, because Jilin Province is an important agriculture base in China. In this study, the accumulation factor sequence evaluating data method was used to analyze the climate and economic-technical factor contribution weights to grain yield and grain yield changes in each city of Jilin Province. Climate yield was also estimated to study the climate effect on the grain yield, and it was calculated in two ways:an improved algorithm and a traditional quadratic method. The results show that the climate and economic-technical factors have different contribution weights to grain yield in different cities in Jilin Province. The contribution weight of the climate factor to grain yield was 0.212-0.349, while that the economic-technical factor was 0.651-0.788. Furthermore, the changes of the climate factor contributing to grain yield changes accounted for 0.296-0.546, and the changes of the economic-technical factor accounted for 0.454-0.704. The weights of climate and economic-technical factor contributing to grain yield are very different between the eastern and western cities in Jilin Province, but their weights contributing to the grain yield change are similar in these cities. In general, the amount of fertilizer used per hectare (FUPH) is the main factor affecting grain yields and yield changes from 1980 to 2008. It is noted that when the FUPH growth rate stabilized after 1995, the effects of the climate factor on the grain yield become more obvious than before. The improved algorithm is effective for estimating climate yield in Jilin Province, and the climate yields were mostly between-500 kg/ha and 500 kg/ha, and showed a slightly rising trend in most cities.     

Vulnerability assessment of crop production to climate change across Northwest China during 1995–2014

Crop production vulnerability to climate change in Northwest China depends upon multiple socio-ecological factors.Knowledge regarding the specific indicators and methods suitable for assessing crop production vulnerability is limited that address spatiotemporal variations across large and diverse zones.We propose an integrated assessment framework to quantify the vulnerability of crop production derived from crop yield sensitivity,exposure,and adaptive consequences across 338 counties in Northwest China during 1995–2014.Maps on these indices were generated using climatic and socioeconomic data with spatial mapping method.Different clusters of crop production vulnerability were then identified by a k-means cluster method to assess the heterogeneity of vulnerability at a regional scale.Results show that the vulnerability of crop production in 338 counties varies significantly in both geographical and socioeconomic aspects,specifically,vulnerability indicators are generally higher in Minhe,Menyuan,Hualong,and Ledu,and Xayar had the lowest value of vulnerability.This indicates that adaptation strategies for regional crop production need to focus on several levels,from the improvement of adaptive ability to crop yield fluctuation by promoting irrigation agriculture and optimizing limited water resources in typical arid areas,to agriculture-related financial policies incentivizing the capital investment and technology upgrade of crop production on traditional farming regions.This study provides convincing evidence that the factors related to socioeconomic policies are particularly alarming when a crop’s risk is compared to precipitation fluctuations.We recommend these findings be used to facilitate regional agriculture planning to reduce crop production vulnerability and ensure sustainable food security in specific regions.     

Spatio-temporal pattern of net primary productivity in Hengduan Mountains area,China: impacts of climate change and human activities

Net primary productivity(NPP), a metric used to define and identify changes in plant communities, is greatly affected by climate change, human activities and other factors. Here, we used the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA) model to estimate the NPP of plant communities in Hengduan Mountains area of China, and to explore the relationship between NPP and altitude in this region. We examined the mechanisms underlying vegetation growth responses to climate change and quantitatively assessed the effects of ecological protection measures by partitioning the contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP changes. The results demonstrated that: 1) the average total and annual NPP values over the years were 209.15 Tg C and 468.06 g C/(m2·yr), respectively. Their trend increasingly fluctuated, with spatial distribution strongly linked to altitude(i.e., lower and higher NPP in high altitude and low altitude areas, respectively) and 2400 m represented the marginal altitude for vegetation differentiation; 2) areas where climate was the main factor affecting NPP accounted for 18.2% of the total research area, whereas human activities were the primary factor influencing NPP in 81.8% of the total research area, which indicated that human activity was the main force driving changes in NPP. Areas where climatic factors(i.e., temperature and precipitation) were the main driving factors occupied 13.6%(temperature) and 6.0%(precipitation) of the total research area, respectively. Therefore, the effect of temperature on NPP changes was stronger than that of precipitation; and 3) the majority of NPP residuals from 2001 to 2014 were positive, with human activities playing an active role in determining regional vegetation growth, possibly due to the return of farmland back to forest and natural forest protection. However, this positive trend is decreasing. This clearly shows the periodical nature of ecological projects and a lack of long-term effectiveness.     

Local perceptions of climate change and adaptation needs in the Ifugao Rice Terraces (Northern Philippines)

The Ifugao Rice Terraces in the Philippines is recognized worldwide as a sustainable landscape where humans live in harmony with nature. The success of the Ifugao Rice Terraces largely depends on the attunement of local farmers to their environment and their ability to adapt to perceived changes, as manifested in their complex body of traditional ecological and climatic knowledge. This paper examines the local perceptions on climate change and other challenges to sustainability through focus group discussions with farmers and traditional knowledge holders. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: (i) Ifugao farmers were able to observe climatic changes in recent years, and these changes were intimately linked with broader environmental and socio-cultural changes in the Ifugao social-ecological system; (ii) The climatic changes qualitatively observed by the farmers were in agreement with trends in datasets commonly used in scientific assessments, although this agreement depends on the spatial and temporal resolution of the dataset, and the type of statistical analysis performed, and; (iii) The Ifugaos stressed the importance of traditional knowledge and culture in climate change adaptation, and preferred measures which could increase internal adaptive capacity while addressing broader sources of community vulnerability. Our results support calls to recognize Indigenous and Western science as equally valid ways of knowing. Discussions with the farmers revealed that in the Ifugao context, climate change may be better framed in the context of multiple stressors on rural livelihoods, with adaptation integrated into broader development objectives. Our findings also emphasize the need for greater engagement of indigenous Ifugao people in planning processes in order to identify adaptation strategies that are culturally appropriate, equitable, and effective in responding to local needs.     

Assessment of alpine summit flora in Kashmir Himalaya and its implications for long-term monitoring of climate change impacts

In an era of climate change,the availability of empirical data on alpine summit vegetation in the Himalaya is still scarce.Here we report the assessment of alpine summit flora in Gulmarg Wildlife Sanctuary,Kashmir Himalaya.We employed a globally standardized Multi-Summit Approach and four spatially isolated summits spanning an elevation gradient of 210 m(between 3530-3740 m a.s.l.) from natural treeline to nival zone were studied.Sampling of the summits was carried out in the year 2018 to collect floristic data together with records of soil temperature.A total of 142 vascular plant species were recorded in the sampled summits.Majority of the species were of herbaceous growth form and with perennial life span.Based on Raunkiaer's life form,hemicryptophytes were the most dominant followed by therophytes and phanerophytes.The summit flora showed the predominance of narrow-endemic species,with broad-and non-endemics declining with elevation.A significant relationship between growth form,Raunkiaer's life form,and the degree of endemism with elevation was observed.Both species diversity and soil temperature showed a monotonic decrease with increasing elevation.Interestingly,soil temperature clearly determined the magnitude of species diversity on the summits.Furthermore,based on floristic composition,the lowest summit had the highest dissimilarity with the rest of the summits.The present study employed globally standardized protocol to scientifically assess the patterns of plant diversity on the alpine mountain summits of Kashmir Himalaya,which in turn has wide implications towards long-term monitoring of climate change impact on alpine biodiversity in the rapidly warming Himalaya.     

Expansion of Juniperus sibirica Burgsd. as a response to climate change and associated effect on mountain tundra vegetation in the Northern Urals

Shrub expansion into arctic and alpine tundra is one of the prominent vegetation changes currently underway. We studied the expansion of shrub vegetation into high elevation tundra in the Kvarkush Range of the Northern Ural mountains, Russia. Age structure analysis of the dominant shrub Juniperus sibirica Burgsd. seems to support ongoing upslope advance of shrubs, a process particularly active in the second half of the 20 th century. We found a close connection between the expansion of shrub vegetation and the general change in climatic conditions of the cold season(months with mean airtemperature below 0°С from November to March). In general, the greatest influence on the distribution of J. sibirica is exerted by the climate conditions of the beginning(November-January) and the end(March) of the cold season. With increasing elevation, the correlation coefficients between the establishment of J. sibirica shrubs and the precipitation of the beginning of the cold season increased, and reached maximum values at the top elevation level of the study area. However, the upwards shift of J. sibirica into typical mountain tundra does not lead to changes in the ecological structure of vegetation at this stage, but simply a decrease in the area of mountain tundra.     

Vulnerability of Himalayan springs to climate change and anthropogenic impact: a review

The climate change and unsustainable anthropogenic modification can intensify the vulnerability of the Himalayas. Natural springs are the principal source of potable water security for the Himalayan population. The changes in the trend of precipitation, temperature and glacier melt are expected to impact the quantity and quality of spring water significantly. This review presents an insight to unravel the effects of climate change and land use land cover changes on the spring resources and outline the essential elements of spring hydrology in the Himalayas. The sensitive response of spring flow to the climate has been observed to follows an annual periodic pattern strongly dependent on snowmelt,rainfall, and evapotranspiration. Among all types,Karst aquifers were found to be highly vulnerable. The changes in the forest and urban landscapes are affecting the recharging sites in the headwater region.In the Central Himalayan region(Kosi River basin,Kumaun), the number of perennial springs is decreasing at a rate of three springs year-1, and nonperennial springs are increasing at the rate of one spring year-1. The high concentration of NO3-, Cl-1,SO42-, and coliform counts reported from the spring water evidence a high susceptibility of shallow aquifers to the non-point source of pollution. Future projections indicate high surface-runoff and occurrence of extreme events such as floods, glacial lake outbursts, and landslides can affect the flow and water quality of springs. As the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities are expected to increase with time remarkably, there is an urgent need to promote regional scientific studies on springs targeting hydrogeochemical evolution, vulnerability assessment, recharge area dynamics, and development of springshed management program.     

Soil physicochemical properties and vegetation structure along an elevation gradient and implications for the response of alpine plant development to climate change on the northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains

Elevation is one of key factors to affect changes in the environment, particularly changes in conditions of light, water and heat. Studying the soil physicochemical properties and vegetation structure along an elevation gradient is important for understanding the responses of alpine plants andtheir growing environment to climate change. In this study, we studied plant coverage, plant height, species richness, soil water-holding capacity, soil organic carbon(SOC) and total nitrogen(N) on the northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains at elevations from2124 to 3665 m. The following conclusions were drawn:(1) With the increase of elevation, plant coverage and species richness first increased and then decreased, with the maximum values being at 3177 m.Plant height was significantly and negatively correlated with elevation(r=–0.97, P0.01), and the ratio of decrease with elevation was 0.82 cm·100 m-1.(2) Both soil water-holding capacity and soil porosity increased on the northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains with the increase of elevation. The soil saturated water content at the 0-40 cm depth first increased and then stabilized with a further increase of elevation, and the average ratio of increase was2.44 mm·100 m-1. With the increase of elevation, the average bulk density at the 0-40 cm depth first decreased and then stabilized at 0.89 g/cm3.(3) With the increase of elevation, the average SOC content at the 0-40 cm depths first increased and then decreased,and the average total N content at the 0-40 cm depth first increased and then stabilized. The correlation between average SOC content and average total N content reached significant level. According to the results of this study, the distribution of plants showed a mono-peak curve with increasing elevation on the northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains. The limiting factor for plant growth at the high elevation areas was not soil physicochemical properties, and therefore,global warming will likely facilitate the development of plant at high elevation areas in the Qilian Mountains.     

Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin,Peru

Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. This study assessed the projections of precipitation and potential evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes, which is important for agriculture and energy production in Peru. We assumed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario and simulated the global climate change by the HadCM3 global climate model. Due to the steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model simulations by the regional Eta model down to 20-km resolution. The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially during the rainy season, between February and April, until the end of the 21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The Modified Fournier Index (MFI) shows a statistically significant downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, which suggests a possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) shows a statistically significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro River Basin in Peru.     

Adaptation management of mountain tourism service: the case of the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow River

Mountain areas are often rich in ecological diversity and recreational opportunities. Mountain tourism is thought to be an effective and important means for maintaining and expanding rural economies and, thus, improving the living conditions of rural societies. As mountain tourism service research is a professional field with several disciplines involved, a multi-disciplinary management pIatform is needed and it facilitates participation in sustainable mountain development by diverse stakeholders. With the source regions of the Yangtze and the Yellow River as a case study, this paper presents a conceptual framework for an adaptation management of mountain tourism services according to technical, policy, social and economic dimensions. The framework is based on a vulnerability assessment of mountain ecosystems, and can serve as a reference for the development of tourism service in other mountain areas.     

Risk assessment of glacial debris flow on alpine highway under climate change: A case study of Aierkuran Gully along Karakoram Highway

Glacial debris flows(GDFs) often occur in alpine regions that are subject to rapid climate change, and pose a serious threat to road systems. However, the ways that climate change impacts GDF risks along road systems remain poorly understood. Aierkuran Gully, located in eastern Pamir along Karakoram Highway(KKH), is a hotspot for GDF activity and climate change, and was thus selected to investigate the GDF risk to road systems under climate change conditions. Reg CM4.6 climate data for northwestern China were selected as climate projections during baseline(2011–2020) and future periods(2031–2040) under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) 8.5. To reflect the coupling effect of rainfall and melt water that triggers GDF, a glacial hydrological model DETIM that considers both factors was applied to calculate the peak debris flow discharge. A FLO-2 D model was calibrated based on high-quality data collected from a detailed field investigation and historical debris flow event. The FLO-2 D model was used to simulate the debris flow depth and velocity during baseline and future periods under RCP8.5. The debris flow hazard was analyzed by integrating the maximum flow depth and momentum. Road structure vulnerability was further determined based on the economic value and susceptibility of hazard-affected objects. The GDF risk along KKH was assessed based on the GDF hazard and vulnerability analysis. Our results show that climate change would lead to amplified peak debris flow discharge, trigger highermagnitude GDF, and induce more severe damage and threats to the road system. Compared with the baseline period, the debris flow damage risk for culverts and bridges would increase and the areas that inundate the road and pavement would expand. Our findings provide valuable insights for the development of mitigation strategies to adapt road systems to climate change, especially in alpine regions with highly active GDFs.     

Integrated assessment of extreme climate and landuse change impact on sediment yield in a mountainous transboundary watershed of India and Pakistan

Assessment of climate and land use changes impact including extreme events on the sediment yield is vital for water and power stressed countries. Mangla Reservoir is the second-largest reservoir in Pakistan, and its capacity is being reduced due to rapid sedimentation and will be threatened under climate and land use changes. This paper discusses the consequences of climate and land use change on sediment yield at Mangla Dam using General Circulation Models(GCMs), Land Change Modeler(LCM), Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model after calibration and validation.Results show that over the historical period temperature is observed to increase by 0.10 o C/decade and forest cover is observed to reduce to the level of only 16% in 2007. Nevertheless, owing to the forest conservation policy, the forest cover raised back to 27% in 2012. Anticipated land use maps by using LCM of 2025, 2050 and 2100 showed that the forest cover will be 33%, 39.2%, and, 53.7%, respectively. All seven GCMs projected the increase in temperature and five GCMs projected an increase in precipitation,however, two GCMs projected a decrease in precipitation. Owing to climate change, land use change and combined impact of climate and land use change on annual sediment yield(2011-2100) may vary from-42.9% to 39.4%, 0% to-27.3% and,-73%to 39.4%, respectively. Under climate change scenarios projected sediment yield is mainly linked with extreme events and is expected to increase with the increase in extreme events. Under land use change scenarios projected sediment yield is mainly linked with the forest cover and is expected to decrease with the increase in forest cover. The results of this study are beneficial for planners, watershed managers and policymakers to mitigate the impacts of climate and land use changes to enhance reservoir life by reducing the sediment yield.     

Land cover change in different altitudes of Guizhou-Guangxi karst mountain area,China: patterns and drivers

Topography, especially altitude, will influence the way, process and characteristics of land cover changes in mountainous area, simultaneously, the vertical difference of land cover changes will affect soil quality and regional ecological environment. Therefore, the gradient relationship analysis between land cover changes and altitude is very important for regional sustainability. This study investigated land cover dynamics based on land cover data from a typical mountainous area in the Guizhou-Guangxi karst mountain area, China, in 2000 and 2010, then explored the relationship between altitude and land cover change and analyzed different drivers of land cover change at different altitudes. Our findings are as follows. 1) From 2000 to 2010, the total area of land cover transition was 7167.04 km~2 or 2.8% of the region. The increasing area of build-up land(926.23 km~2) was larger than that of forest(859.38 km~2), suggesting that the urban construction speed was higher than that of reforestation. 2) Intensity of land cover transition in northwestern Guizhou-Guangxi karst mountain area was much larger than that of southeast part and their transition trend was also significantly different, which was consistent with regional population and economy. 3) Human activity was the most dramatic at altitudes between 0–500 m. For 500–1000 m, grassland mainly converted to forest and build-up land. Area of land cover transition was the greatest between 1000–1500 m, while above 1500 m, the transition of grassland was the most obvious. 4) The drivers of land cover change varied. Land cover change was positively correlated with gross domestic product and population density but was inversely related to relief amplitude. There were correlations between land cover change and distance to roads and rivers, and their correlations varied with altitude. By revealing patterns and causes of land cover changes in different altitudes, we hope to understand the vertical dependence of land cover changes, so as to improve land productivity and protect land ecological environment scientifically.     

Spatio-temporal variation of spring phenology in Tibetan Plateau and its linkage to climate change from 1982 to 2012

The influence of climate change on vegetation phenology is a heated issue in current climate change study. We used GIMMS-3g NDVI data to detect the spatio-temporal dynamics of the start of the growing season (SGS) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) from 1982 to 2012 and to analyze its relationship with temperature and precipitation. No significant trend was observed in the SGS at the regional scale during the study period (R ² = 0.03, P = 0.352). However, there were three time periods (1982-1999, 1999-2008 and 2008-2012) with identifiable, distinctly different trends. Regions with a significant advancing trend were mainly scattered throughout the humid and semi-humid areas, whereas the regions with a significant delaying trend were mostly distributed throughout the semi-arid areas. Statistical analysis showed that the response of the SGS to climate change varies spatially. The SGS was significantly correlated with the spring temperature and the start of the thermal growth season (STGS) in the relatively humid area. With increasing aridity, the importance of the spring temperature for the SGS gradually decreased. However, the influences of precipitation and winter temperature on the SGS were complicated across the plateau.     

Temporal Change of Runoff and Sediment Load and their Differential Response to Human Activities：A Case Study for a Well-vegetated Mountain Watershed of Southern China

This study examined the temporal trends of runoff and sediment load and their differential response to human activities in the Lishui river,a tributary of the Yangtze river in southern China.The long-term observation data at four gauging stations,generally involving two periods from 1954 to 1985 and from 2007 to 2011,were used.We detected no significant temporal trend for both the annual runoff volume（Q） and the annual suspended Sediment Load（SL） over more than 30 years before 1985.The flow duration curves and the Suspended Sediment Concentration（SSC） also hold constant before 1985.Compared with the period before 1985,SL has decreased by about 80% though Q remains unchanged for the period after 2007.Detailed examination shows that the flow duration curves after 2007 have changed with a significant decrease in the high-flow component,which acts as a major cause for the decreasing SL.In addition,SSC has decreased by several times,which also contributes to the decrease in SL after 2007.Both decreases in high-flow discharges and in SSC can be linked with recent human activities,mainly including vegetation establishment and dam constructions.The constant Q and the decreasing SL are also reported for the main stream of the Yangtze River and other major rivers in southern China,although they are orders of magnitude larger than our study area in drainage area size.The present study highlights the importance of high-flow discharges on SL and suggests that the use of SL is more appropriate to reflect environmental change than Q.     

Phenology of different types of vegetation and their response to climate change in the Qilian Mountains,China

The Qilian Mountains(QM) possess a delicate vegetation ecosystem, amplifying the evident response of vegetation phenology to climate change. The relationship between changes in vegetation growth and climate remains complex. To this end, we used MODIS NDVI data to extract the phenological parameters of the vegetation including meadow(MDW), grassland(GSD), and alpine vegetation(ALV) in the QM from 2002 to 2021. Then, we employed path analysis to reveal the direct and indirect impacts of seasonal c...     

Ecological consequences of land use change: Forest structure and regeneration across the forest-grassland ecotone in mountain pastures in Nepal

The ecotone, the spatial transition zone between two vegetation communities, is claimed to have more species than the adjoining communities. However, empirical studies do not always confirm higher richness at the ecotone. The ecotone position and structure are dynamic over time and space and it is driven by the changes in climate, land use or their interaction. In this context, we assessed the forest- grassland ecotone of temperate mountains in central Nepal by i） comparing species composition and richness across the ecotone, ii） analyzing if the forestgrassland ecotone is shifting towards the grassland center by colonizing them with trees, and iii） discussing the consequence of changed disturbance regime in the dynamics of this ecotone and the surrounding grasslands. We analyzed vegetation data sampled from belt transects laid across the forest- grassland ecotone in semi-natural grassland patches. Vegetation data consisting of species richness and composition, and size structure and regeneration of the two most dominant tree species, namely Rhododendron arboreum and Abies spectabilis, from the transects, were used to analyze the trend of the forest-grassland ecotone. Forest and grasslands were different in terms of floristic composition and diversity. Vascular plant speciesrichness linearly increased while moving from forest interior to grassland center. Spatial pattern of tree size structure and regeneration infers that forest boundary is advancing towards the grasslands at the expense of the grassland area, and tree establishment in the grasslands is part of a suceessional process. Temporally, tree establishment in grasslands started following the gradual decline in disturbance. We argue that local processes in terms of changed land use may best explain the phenomenon of ecotone shift and consequent forest expansion in these grasslands. We underpin the need for further research on the mechanism, rate and spatial extent of ecotone shift by using advaneed tools to understand the process indepth.