The coastal ocean off Oregon from 1961 to 2000: is there evidence of climate change or only of Los Niños?

A zonal hydrographic section along 44.65°N, from the coast of Oregon to 300 km offshore, was occupied regularly (at least seasonally) from 1961 to 1971 and then sporadically until recently. Regular monitoring of this section to 160 km offshore resumed in July 1997 as part of the GLOBEC Long Term Observational Program; the recent data provide observations in Oregon coastal waters of El Niño 1997–98 and La Niña conditions that followed. The complete seasonal data from the decade 1961–1971 provide a basis for comparison with the recent temperature and salinity sections, steric height profiles, geostrophic velocity, and water mass characteristics. These data, and sporadic observations in intervening years, allow us to compare conditions during several ENSO events with the recent event and to search for evidence of climate change. The PFEL Coastal Upwelling Index, sea level from the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center, the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and outflow from the Columbia River are used to distinguish local and remote causes of variability in physical oceanographic conditions off Oregon. The sequence of El Niño/La Niña/El Niño in 1963–66, during a cool phase of PDO, provides a comparison to El Niño/La Niña of 1997–2000. El Niño in 1982–83 and 1997–98, during a warm phase of PDO, caused the largest oceanographic anomalies in the 40 years. The comparison indicates warming of the coastal ocean off Oregon and suggests a modulation of ENSO effects by PDO. Such modulation would mask evidence for secular climate change in our 40-year oceanographic data series.     

The coastal ocean off Oregon and northern California during the 1997–8 El Niño

The evolution and decay of El Niño 1997–8 was observed in coastal waters off Oregon in a sequence of cruises along 44.6°N from the coast to more than 150 km offshore. Hydrographic observations were made during eleven cruises between July 1997 and April 1999 at stations on the Newport Hydrographic Line, which had been occupied regularly from 1961 to 1971. The data from the earlier decade provide a basis for defining ‘normal’ conditions and allow comparisons with the recent El Niño in terms of T, S, spiciness and geostrophic velocity. Independent of El Niño, the ocean in July 1997 was already anomalously warm offshore of 50 km and above 100 m. By September 1997 there were unambiguous indications of El Niño: isotherms and isohalines sloped down toward the coast indicating poleward flow over shelf and slope, and anomalously spicy water was present at the shelf-break. In November 1997 and February 1998 shelf-break waters were even warmer, and there was strong poleward flow inshore of 100 km, extending to depths greater than 200 m. The April 1998 section closely resembled that of April 1983 (another El Niño year) but by June 1998 the anomalies were mostly gone. November 1998 was near normal and the sections from subsequent cruises resemble the mean sections from 1961–1971.Four cruises between November 1997 and November 1998 included sampling at several latitudes between 38° and 45°N. As expected, these sections show significant alongshore gradients, but also a surprising degree of homogeneity in the anomalous features associated with El Niño (in the temperature, salinity, spiciness and geostrophic velocity fields). The anomalous signature of El Niño was stronger at its winter peak in 1998 than in 1983, but the signature in the temperature and spiciness fields, and in coastal sea level, did not persist as long as in 1983. By April 1999, the coastal ocean from 38°N to 45°N was significantly colder than it had been in April 1984.     

Marine nekton off Oregon and the 1997–98 El Nino

Several species of migratory, warm-water, oceanic fishes invaded Oregon waters during the summer of 1997. Also, the jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas), common in the eastern tropical Pacific, was reported for the first time in 1997 and was caught in large numbers. The occurrence of these oceanic nekton was associated with inshore advection of anomalously warm water. During 1998, after arrival of the main El Niño signal, some warm-water coastal fishes appeared off Oregon. However, unlike observations off California, fewer species of warm-water coastal fishes were noted during the 1997–98 El Niño than during the 1982–83 El Niño.     

Biological and chemical consequences of the 1997–1998 El Niño in central California waters

The physical, chemical and biological perturbations in central California waters associated with the strong 1997–1998 El Niño are described and explained on the basis of time series collected from ships, moorings, tide gauges and satellites. The evolution of El Niño off California closely followed the pattern observed in the tropical Pacific. In June 1997 an anomalous influx of warm southerly waters, with weak signatures on coastal sea level and thermocline depth, marked the onset of El Niño in central California. The timing was consistent with propagation from the tropics via the equatorial and coastal wave-guide. By late 1997, the classical stratified ocean condition with a deep thermocline, high sea level, and warm sea surface temperature (SST) commonly associated with El Niño dominated the coastal zone. During the first half of 1998 the core of the California Current, which is normally detected several hundred kilometers from shore as a river of low salinity, low nutrient water, was hugging the coast. High nutrient, productive waters that occur in a north–south band from the coast to approximately 200 km offshore during cool years disappeared during El Niño. The nitrate in surface waters was less than 20% of normal and new production was reduced by close to 70%. The La Niña recovery phase began in the fall of 1998 when SSTs dropped below normal, and ocean productivity rebounded to higher than normal levels. The reduction in coastal California primary productivity associated with El Niño was estimated to be 50 million metric tons of carbon (5×10¹³ g C). This reduction certainly had deleterious effects on zooplankton, fish, and marine mammals. The 1992–1993 El Niño was more moderate than the 1997–1998 event, but because its duration was longer, its overall chemical and biological impact may have been comparable. How strongly the ecosystem responds to El Niño appears related to the longer-term background climatic state of the Pacific Ocean. The 1982–1983 and 1992–1993 El Niños occurred during the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO may have changed sign during the 1997–1998 El Niño, resulting in weaker ecological effects than would otherwise have been predicted based on the strength of the temperature anomaly.     

Changes in the cetacean assemblage of a coastal upwelling ecosystem during El Niño 1997–98 and La Niña 1999

We report results of ecosystem studies in Monterey Bay, California, during the summer upwelling periods, 1996–99, including impacts of El Niño 1997–98 and La Niña 1999. Random-systematic line-transect surveys of marine mammals were conducted monthly from August to November 1996, and from May to November 1997–99. CTDs and zooplankton net tows were conducted opportunistically, and at 10 predetermined locations. Hydroacoustic backscatter was measured continuously while underway to estimate prevalence of zooplankton, with emphasis on euphausiids, a key trophic link between primary production and higher trophic level consumers.The occurrences of several of the California Current’s most common cetaceans varied among years. The assemblage of odontocetes became more diverse during the El Niño with a temporary influx of warm-water species. Densities of cold-temperate Dall’s porpoise, Phocoenoides dalli, were greatest before the onset of El Niño, whereas warm-temperate common dolphins, Delphinus spp., were present only during the warm-water period associated with El Niño. Rorqual densities decreased in August 1997 as euphausiid backscatter was reduced. In 1998, as euphausiid backscatter slowly increased, rorqual densities increased sharply to the greatest observed values. Euphausiid backscatter further increased in 1999, whereas rorqual densities were similar to those observed during 1998. We hypothesize that a dramatic reduction in zooplankton biomass offshore during El Niño 1997–98 led to the concentration of rorquals in the remaining productive coastal upwelling areas, including Monterey Bay. These patterns exemplify short-term responses of cetaceans to large-scale changes in oceanic conditions.     

Dynamic evolution of the 1997–1999 El Niño–La Niña cycle in the southern California Current System

The development of the strongest El Niño event on record in the equatorial Pacific in 1997–1998 and the rapid transition to strong La Niña conditions in 1998–1999 had a large impact on the physical and biological environment of the West Coast. We investigate the evolution of the physical structure and circulation dynamics of the southern California Current System (CCS) during this period based on hydrographic data collected on 25 cruises over a 45-month period (February 1996–October 1999). The El Niño period was characterized by a significant increase in dynamic height, extreme water mass characteristics, a strengthening and broadening of the poleward nearshore flow, and a temporary reversal of net alongshore transport. By early 1999, conditions in the CCS had reversed. The data suggest that remotely driven forcing (propagating oceanic waves) contributed to the anomalies observed during the El Niño period, while the cool-water conditions of 1999 were most likely a result of anomalous local atmospheric forcing.     

1997–1998 El Niño off Peru: A numerical study

An eddy-resolving numerical simulation for the Peru–Chile system between 1993 and 2000 is analyzed, mainly for the 1997–1998 El Niño. Atmospheric and lateral oceanic forcings are realistic and contain a wide range of scales from days to interannual. The solution is validated against altimetric observations and the few in situ observations available. The simulated 1997–1998 El Niño closely resembles the real 1997–1998 El Niño in its time sequence of events. The two well-marked, sea-level peaks in May–June and November–December 1997 are reproduced with amplitudes close to those observed. Other sub-periods of the El Niño seem to be captured adequately. Simple dynamical analyses are performed to explain the 1997–1998 evolution of the upwelling in the model. The intensity of the upwelling appears to be determined by an interplay between alongshore, poleward advection (related to coastal trapped waves) and wind intensity, but also by the cross-shore geostrophic flow and distribution of the water masses on a scale of 1000 km or more (involving Rossby waves westward propagation and advection from equatorial currents). In particular, the delay of upwelling recovery until fall 1998 (i.e., well after the second El Niño peak) is partly due to the persistent advection of offshore stratified water toward the coast of Peru. Altimetry data suggest that these interpretations of the numerical solution also apply to the real ocean.     

Plankton response to El Niño 1997–1998 and La Niña 1999 in the southern region of the California Current

The IMECOCAL Program began in 1997, with the objective of sampling plankton systematically in the Mexican region of the California Current. We present results of chlorophyll a concentrations and zooplankton displacement volumes for the eight cruises from September 1997 to October 1999. The abundance of 22 zooplankton groups was also analyzed for the first four cruises. The response of plankton to the 1997–1998 El Niño was atypical. From September 1997 to January 1998, chlorophyll a and zooplankton volume were at typical values (median integrated chlorophyll was 27 mg/m² and zooplankton 100 ml/1000 m³ in 9801/02). After the peak of El Niño, the system shifted to cooler conditions. Integrated chlorophyll gradually increased to a median of 77 mg/m² in April 1999. In contrast, zooplankton volumes decreased from October 1998 onward, despite favorable phytoplankton availability in 1999. Zooplankton structure was dominated by copepods and chaetognaths through the ENSO cycle, but interannual changes were evident. In the fall of 1997 there was a higher proportion of copepods, chaetognaths, and other minor groups, while the fall of 1998 zooplankton was richer in salps and ostracods. Historical data from previous Baja California CalCOFI cruises indicated that zooplankton volumes measured during the IMECOCAL cruises were above the long-term mean for the period 1951–1984. This suggests a differential response of plankton to the El Niño of 1997–1998 compared to the El Niño of 1957–1959. Regional differences in zooplankton volumes were also found, with central Baja California having 41% higher biomass than northern Baja California. Volumes from both regions were larger than those recorded by CalCOFI off southern California during 1997–1998, but the situation was reversed in 1999. The higher biomasses in the 1997–1998 El Niño can be attributed to high abundance of salps, which showed an affinity with warm, saline water.     

Hydrography, nutrients and chlorophyll during El Niño and La Niña 1997–99 winters in the Gulf of the Farallones, California

Nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations were measured in January 1997, 1998 and 1999 in the Gulf of the Farallones, CA at locations stretching north/south from Point Reyes to Half Moon Bay, and seaward from the Golden Gate to the Farallon Islands. The cruises were all carried out during periods of high river flow, but under different climatological conditions with 1997 conditions described as relatively typical or ‘neutral/normal’, compared to the El Niño warmer water temperatures in 1998, and the cooler La Niña conditions in 1999. Near-shore sea-surface temperatures ranged from cold (9.5–10.5°C) during La Niña 1999, to average (11–13°C) during 1997 to warm (13.5–15°C) during El Niño 1998. Nutrients are supplied to the Gulf of the Farallones both from San Francisco Bay (SFB) and from oceanic sources, e.g. coastal upwelling near Point Reyes. Nutrient supplies are strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle of fall calms, with storms (commencing in January), and the spring transition to high pressure and northerly upwelling favorable winds. The major effect of El Niño and La Niña climatic conditions was to modulate the relative contribution of SFB to nutrient concentrations in the coastal waters of the Gulf of the Farallones; this was intensified during the El Niño winter and reduced during La Niña. During January 1998 (El Niño) the oceanic water was warm and had low or undetectable nitrate, that did not reach the coast. Instead, SFB dominated the supply of nutrients to the coastal waters. Additionally, these data indicate that silicate may be a good tracker of SFB water. In January, delta outflow into SFB produces low salinity, high silicate, high nitrate water that exits the bay at the Golden Gate and is advected northward along the coast. This occurred in both 1997 and 1998. However during January 1999, a La Niña, this SFB feature was reduced and the near-shore water was more characteristic of high salinity oceanic water penetrated all the way to the coast and was cold (10°C) and nutrient rich (16 μM NO₃, 30 μM Si(OH)₄). January chlorophyll concentrations ranged from 1–1.5 μg l⁻¹ in all years with the highest values measured in 1999 (2.5–3 μg l⁻¹) as a result of elevated nutrients in the area. The impact of climatic conditions on chlorophyll concentrations was not as pronounced as might be expected from the high temperatures and low nutrient concentrations measured offshore during El Niño due to the sustained supply of nutrients from the Bay supporting continued primary production.     

Pacific Basin climate variability and patterns of Northeast Pacific marine fish production

A review of oceanographic and climate data from the North Pacific and Bering Sea has revealed climate events that occur on two principal time scales: a) 2–7 years (i.e. El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO), and b) inter-decadal (i.e. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO). The timing of ENSO events and of related oceanic changes at higher latitudes were examined. The frequency of ENSO was high in the 1980s. Evidence of ENSO forcing on ocean conditions in the North Pacific (Niño North conditions) showed ENSO events were more frequently observed along the West Coast than in the western Gulf of Alaska (GOA) and Eastern Bering Sea (EBS). Time series of catches for 30 region/species groups of salmon, and recruitment data for 29 groundfish and 5 non-salmonid pelagic species, were examined for evidence of a statistical relationship with any of the time scales associated with Niño North conditions or the PDO. Some flatfish stocks exhibited high autocorrelation in recruitment coupled with a significant step in recruitment in 1977 suggesting a relationship between PDO forcing and recruitment success. Five of the dominant gadid stocks (EBS and GOA Pacific cod, Pacific hake and EBS and GOA walleye pollock) exhibited low autocorrelation in recruitment. Of these, Pacific hake, GOA walleye pollock and GOA Pacific cod exhibited significantly higher incidence of strong year classes in years associated with Niño North conditions. These findings suggest that the PDO and ENSO may play an important role in governing year-class strength of several Northeast Pacific marine fish stocks.     

El Niño related interannual variations in biological production in the North Pacific as evidenced by satellite and ship data

A recently proposed method for estimating nitrate and new production from remotely sensed data (Goes and Goes) allowed us to observe significant deviations from the normal in the quantum of winter-time nitrate injected into the euphotic column and its consumption by phytoplankton in the North Pacific following the El Niño event of 1997. Results from this study allowed us to observe large differences in the ways in which the El Niño event affected the western and the eastern margins of the North Pacific basin. For the western North Pacific, a long-term (1972–1992) historical record of oceanographic data provided us with clear evidence supporting of our findings from satellite observations. In the eastern North Pacific Ocean also, our results compared well with those previously reported (Wong, Whitney, Matear, & Iseki, 1998). While it is clear from this study that El Niño/La Niña oscillations can have a major influence on interannual variations in biological processes in the North Pacific, these results also serve to highlight the value of remote sensing as a tool for studying large regional to basin-scale biological oceanographic events.     

Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part I: Comparing trophic linkages under La Niña and El Niño conditions

The El Niño of 1997–98 was one of the strongest warming events of the past century; among many other effects, it impacted phytoplankton along the Peruvian coast by changing species composition and reducing biomass. While responses of the main fish resources to this natural perturbation are relatively well known, understanding the ecosystem response as a whole requires an ecotrophic multispecies approach. In this work, we construct trophic models of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem (NHCE) and compare the La Niña (LN) years in 1995–96 with the El Niño (EN) years in 1997–98. The model area extends from 4°S–16°S and to 60 nm from the coast. The model consists of 32 functional groups of organisms and differs from previous trophic models of the Peruvian system through: (i) division of plankton into size classes to account for EN-associated changes and feeding preferences of small pelagic fish, (ii) increased division of demersal groups and separation of life history stages of hake, (iii) inclusion of mesopelagic fish, and (iv) incorporation of the jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas), which became abundant following EN. Results show that EN reduced the size and organization of energy flows of the NHCE, but the overall functioning (proportion of energy flows used for respiration, consumption by predators, detritus and export) of the ecosystem was maintained. The reduction of diatom biomass during EN forced omnivorous planktivorous fish to switch to a more zooplankton-dominated diet, raising their trophic level. Consequently, in the EN model the trophic level increased for several predatory groups (mackerel, other large pelagics, sea birds, pinnipeds) and for fishery catch. A high modeled biomass of macrozooplankton was needed to balance the consumption by planktivores, especially during EN condition when observed diatoms biomass diminished dramatically. Despite overall lower planktivorous fish catches, the higher primary production required-to-catch ratio implied a stronger ecological impact of the fishery and stresses the need for precautionary management of fisheries during and after EN. During EN energetic indicators such as the lower primary production/total biomass ratio suggest a more energetically efficient ecosystem, while reduced network indicators such as the cycling index and relative ascendency indicate of a less organized state of the ecosystem. Compared to previous trophic models of the NHCE we observed: (i) a shrinking of ecosystem size in term of energy flows, (ii) slight changes in overall functioning (proportion of energy flows used for respiration, consumption by predators and detritus), and (iii) the use of alternate pathways leading to a higher ecological impact of the fishery for planktivorous fish.     

How are large western hemisphere warm pools formed?

During the boreal summer the Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) stretches from the eastern North Pacific to the tropical North Atlantic and is a key feature of the climate of the Americas and Africa. In the summers following nine El Niño events during 1950–2000, there have been five instances of extraordinarily large warm pools averaging about twice the climatological annual size. These large warm pools have induced a strengthened divergent circulation aloft and have been associated with rainfall anomalies throughout the western hemisphere tropics and subtropics and with more frequent hurricanes. However, following four other El Niño events large warm pools did not develop, such that the mere existence of El Niño during the boreal winter does not provide the basis for predicting an anomalously large warm pool the following summer.In this paper, we find consistency with the hypothesis that large warm pools result from an anomalous divergent circulation forced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific, the so-called atmospheric bridge. We also find significant explanations for why large warm pools do not always develop. If the El Niño event ends early in the eastern Pacific, the Pacific warm anomaly lacks the persistence needed to force the atmospheric bridge and the Atlantic portion of the warm pool remains normal. If SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific do not last much beyond February of the following year, then the eastern North Pacific portion of the warm pool remains normal. The overall strength of the Pacific El Niño does not appear to be a critical factor. We also find that when conditions favor a developing atmospheric bridge and the winter atmosphere over the North Atlantic conforms to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern (as in 1957–58 and 1968–69), the forcing is reinforced and the warm pool is stronger. On the other hand, if a positive NAO pattern develops the warm pool may remain normal even if other circumstances favor the atmospheric bridge, as in 1991–92. Finally, we could find little evidence that interactions internal to the tropical Atlantic are likely to mitigate for or against the formation of the largest warm pools, although they may affect smaller warm pool fluctuations or the warm pool persistence.     

Inorganic carbon in the central California upwelling system during the 1997–1999 El Niño–La Niña event

Sea surface pCO₂ was monitored during 49 cruises from February 1997 to December 1999 along a section perpendicular to the central California Coast. Continuous measurements of the ocean–atmosphere difference of pCO₂ were made on a mooring in the same region from July 1997 to December 1999. The El Niño/La Niña cycle of 1997–1999 had a significant influence on local ocean–atmosphere CO₂ transfer. During the warm anomaly associated with El Niño, upwelling was suppressed and average sea surface pCO₂ was below atmospheric level. High rainfall and river runoff in the late winter and early spring of 1998 produced areas where pCO₂ was depressed by as much as 100 μatm. A flux ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 mol C m⁻² y⁻¹ from the atmosphere into the ocean was estimated for the El Niño period from wind and ΔpCO₂ data. Temperatures and upwelling returned to near normal in the summer of 1998, but a cold anomaly developed during autumn of that year. Temperature and pCO₂ data indicate that upwelling continued throughout much of the 1998–1999 winter and intensified significantly in the spring of 1999. During strong upwelling events, the estimate of ocean to atmosphere flux approached rates of 50 mol C m⁻² y⁻¹. The estimate for the average CO₂ flux from July 1998 to July 1999 was 1.5–2.2 mol C m⁻² y⁻¹ from the ocean to the atmosphere. While the flux estimate for the El Niño time period may be applicable to a larger area, the high ocean to atmosphere fluxes during La Niña might be the result of sampling near a zone of intense upwelling.     

Coastal phytoplankton blooms in the Southern California Bight

Surface chlorophyll (CHL) measured at the Scripps Pier in the Southern California Bight (SCB) for 18 years (1983–2000) reveals that the spring bloom occurs with irregular timing and intensity each year, unlike sea-surface temperature (SST), which is dominated by a regular seasonal cycle. In the 1990s, the spring bloom occurred earlier in the year and with larger amplitudes compared to those of the 1980s. Seasonal anomalies of the Pier CHL have no significant correlation with local winds, local SST, or upwelling index, which implies that classical coastal upwelling is not directly responsible for driving chlorophyll variations in nearshore SCB.The annual mean Pier CHL exhibits an increasing trend, whereas the Pier SST has no evident concomitant trend during the CHL observation period. The interannual variation of the Pier CHL is not correlated with tropical El Niño or La Niña conditions over the entire observing period. However, the Pier CHL was significantly influenced by El Nino/Southern Oscillation during the 1997/1998 El Niño and 1998/1999 La Niña transition period. The Pier CHL is highly coherent at long periods (3–7 years) with nearby offshore in situ surface CHL at the CalCOFI (California Cooperative Fisheries Investigations) station 93.27.     

The 1997–1998 oceanic El Niño signal along the southeast and northeast Pacific boundaries—an altimetric view

Changes in the sea surface heights (SSH) and geostrophic currents along the eastern boundaries of the Pacific (North, Central and South America) are examined during the 1997–1998 El Niño using altimeter data and proxy winds. These show that ‘symmetric’ SSH signals left the equator and propagated into both Hemispheres in two episodes, with primary periods of high equatorial SSH during May–July and October–December 1997. These are the ‘distant signals’ from the mid-latitude perspective. As the signals spread poleward in each Hemisphere, their loss of symmetry demonstrates the degree to which they were altered by topographic features, local winds, and/or local currents. The first four EOFs are calculated for 2-D SSH fields in 10° wide strips along the eastern margins (60°N–60°S) and extending out along the equator from the coast to 110°W. These account for approximately 40% of the overall variability and represent the main features of the seasonal cycles and El Niño interannual variability. Snapshots of the 2-D SSH fields depict the structure of the El Niño signal at different phases of its evolution.     

Evolution of oceanographic conditions off Baja California: 1997–1999

This paper examines the oceanic response off Baja California, Mexico, to the 1997–1998 El Niño and the transition to La Niña conditions. The data presented were gathered during seven cruises over a grid based on the CalCOFI station plan, from lines 100–130, out to station 80. T–S diagrams with data obtained during the peak phase of El Niño, demonstrate that warmer and saltier (spicier) than normal conditions prevailed in the upper 600 m over this region. Temperature and salinity anomalies calculated for CalCOFI line 120 revealed waters near the coast at 50 m depth to be up to 8.7 °C warmer and S=0.8 saltier than the climatology during October 1997. These large anomalies persisted through January 1998, with some slight diminution in the magnitudes near the surface. This study suggests that anomalously warm and salty waters were fed from a source of spicy water to the southwest, identified as Subtropical Surface Water (StSW), and that low-salinity Tropical surface waters (TSW) were blocked to the southeast in the vicinity of the tip of the Peninsula. Subsurface waters associated with the California undercurrent (CU), fed from the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP), were also warmer and saltier than normal, and indicate a significant expansion in volume of the CU, presumably a result of intensification of poleward flow at depth. We postulate that the well defined near-surface and deep poleward flows in the study area reflect anomalous large-scale cyclonic circulation affecting the flow in the southeastern region of the North Pacific subtropical gyre east of 125°W. Following the El Niño event, warm and salty upper waters retreated to latitudes south of Punta Eugenia. With the return to normal and cooler conditions, equatorward flow over the sampling grid predominated with an increased meandering and mesoscale activity. Transition to La Niña conditions would have been associated with re-establishment of normal anticyclonic flow in the southeastern quadrant of the Pacific subtropical gyre.     

Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part II: Elucidating ecosystem dynamics from 1995 to 2004 with a focus on the impact of ENSO

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported.     

Changes in the Structure of a Coastal Fish Assemblage Exploited by a Small Scale Gillnet Fishery During an El Niño–La Niña Event

During 1998 an experimental gillnet fishing survey was carried out in a Mexican Central Pacific inshore zone. One-hundred and thirty fish species belonging to 51 families and 18 orders were identified. The most abundant species wereMicrolepidotus brevipinnis (29·0% of the total abundance) and Caranx caninus (19·2%), followed by C. caballus (6·3%), Kyphosus analogus (4·3%) and C. sexfasciatus (3·4%). Thermal SST anomalies showed the existence of two periods. The first, from January to April with positive anomalies, defines the end of an El Niño episode. The second period, from May to December, constitutes the beginning of the La Niña episode. The typical seasonality in a non-anomalous year continued for a large percentage of the inshore fish community, and the effects of the anomalous event consisted of changes in seasonality of occurrence in some individual species and the unusual abundance of some uncommon species. The species richness was higher during the El Niño–La Niña event than in a non-anomalous year, and therefore the event could be considered an interannual environmental mechanism that favours fish diversity in inshore waters.     

Impact of the 1997–1998 El Niño and 1999 La Niña on nutrient supply in the Gulf of Alaska

Nutrient surveys of the Gulf of Alaska, from 1997 through 1999, show that coastal waters of British Columbia and southern Alaska experienced nitrate depletion each spring and summer. Through the 1997–1998 El Niño, waters with less than 1 μM NO₃ covered 250,000 km² area greater than 1999. Silicate levels as low as 0.2 μM were observed in coastal waters, suggesting that diatom growth may have been nutrient limited both in 1998 and 1999. Detailed sampling off the southern coast of British Columbia revealed that 1998 nitrate levels were only half the average of that during the 1970s winter, were depleted 1 month earlier in spring and remained low throughout the summer. Satellite images show that, compared to 1997 and 1999, chlorophyll levels were much lower in the spring of 1998 throughout the coastal waters of the Gulf of Alaska. Conditions changed dramatically during the 1999 La Niña, with ocean-mixed layer depths increasing by 20 m in winter and 40 m in spring when compared to that during 1997–1998 El Niño. Winter nutrient levels increased and summer upwelling returned. Over the past several decades, a trend towards greater stratification of coastal waters appears to be affecting the supply of nutrients to the mixed layer. The effects of stratification were especially obvious during the 1998 El Niño.