The Continuous Plankton Recorder survey and the North Atlantic Oscillation: Interannual- to Multidecadal-scale patterns of phytoplankton variability in the North Atlantic Ocean

At interannual to multidecadal time scales, much of the oceanographic and climatic variability in the North Atlantic Ocean can be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While evidence suggests that there is a relationship between the NAO and zooplankton dynamics in the North Atlantic Ocean, the phytoplankton response to NAO-induced changes in the environment is less clear. Time series of monthly mean phytoplankton colour values, as compiled by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, are analysed to infer relationships between the NAO and phytoplankton dynamics throughout the North Atlantic Ocean. While a few areas display highly significant (p < 0.05) trends in the CPR colour time series during the period 1948–2000, nominally significant (p < 0.20) positive trends are widespread across the basin, particularly on the continental shelves and in a transition zone stretching across the Central North Atlantic. When long-term trends are removed from both the NAO index and CPR colour time series, the correlation between them ceases to be significant. Several hypotheses are proposed to explain the observed variability in the CPR colour and its relationship with climate in the North Atlantic.     

Historical storminess and climate ‘see-saws’ in the North Atlantic region

The existence of a well-defined climate ‘see-saw’ across the North Atlantic region and surrounding areas has been known for over 200 years. The occurrence of severe winters in western Greenland frequently coincides with mild winters in northern Europe. Conversely, mild winters in western Greenland are frequently associated with cold winters across northern Europe. Whereas this ‘see-saw’ is normally discussed in terms of air temperature and pressure differences, here we explore how the climate ‘see-saw’ is reflected in records of historic storminess from Scotland, NW Ireland and Iceland. It is concluded that the stormiest winters in these regions during the last ca. 150 years have occurred when western Greenland temperatures have been significantly below average. In contrast, winters of reduced storminess have coincided with winters when air temperatures have been significantly above average in western Greenland. This reconstruction of winter storminess implies a relationship between chronologies of coastal erosion and the history of North Atlantic climate ‘see-saw’ dynamics with sustained winter storminess, and hence increased coastal erosion, taking place when the Icelandic low pressure cell is strongly anchored within the circulation of the northern hemisphere. Considered over the last ca. 2000 years, it would appear that winter storminess and climate-driven coastal erosion was at a minimum during the Medieval Warm Period. By contrast, the time interval from ca. AD 1420 until present has been associated with sustained winter storminess across the North Atlantic that has resulted in accelerated coastal erosion and sand drift.     

Trans-Atlantic responses of Calanus finmarchicus populations to basin-scale forcing associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation

Populations of the copepod species Calanus finmarchicus often dominate the springtime biomass and secondary production of shelf ecosystems throughout the North Atlantic Ocean. Recently, it has been hypothesised that interannual to interdecadal fluctuations observed in such populations are driven primarily by climate-associated changes in ocean circulation. Here, we compare evidence from the North Sea and Gulf of Maine/Western Scotian Shelf (GoM/WSS) linking fluctuations in C. finmarchicus abundance to changes in ocean circulation associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A particularly striking contrast emerges from this Trans-Atlantic comparison: whereas the North Sea C. finmarchicus population exhibits a negative correlation with the NAO index, the GoM/WSS population exhibits a more complex, positive association with the index. The physical processes underlying these contrasting population responses are discussed in the context of regional- to basin-scale circulation changes associated with the NAO.     

Summarising spatial and temporal information in CPR data

The Continuous Plankton Recorder survey provides pan-oceanic data on geographic distribution, species composition, seasonal cycles of abundance, and long-term change during the last 70 years. In this paper we compare and contrast some of the historic data-analytic protocols of the survey, focusing primarily on the various means by which spatio-temporal information in CPR data has been exposed. Relative strengths and limitations are assessed, followed by suggestions for future approaches to the visualisation and summarising of CPR data.     

Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

Adaptive model of plankton dynamics for the North Atlantic

Plankton ecosystems in the North Atlantic display strong regional and interannual variability in productivity and trophic structure, which cannot be captured by simple plankton models. Additional compartments subdividing functional groups can increase predictive power, but the high number of parameters tends to compromise portability and robustness of model predictions. An alternative strategy is to use property state variables, such as cell size, normally considered constant parameters in ecosystem models, to define the structure of functional groups in terms of both behaviour and response to physical forcing. This strategy may allow us to simulate realistically regional and temporal differences among plankton communities while keeping model complexity at a minimum.We fit a model of plankton and DOM dynamics globally and individually to observed climatologies at three diverse locations in the North Atlantic. Introducing additional property state variables is shown to improve the model fit both locally and globally, make the model more portable, and help identify model deficiencies. The zooplankton formulation exerts strong control on model performance. Our results suggest that the current paradigm on zooplankton allometric functional relationships might be at odds with observed plankton dynamics. Our parameter estimation resulted in more realistic estimates of parameters important for primary production than previous data assimilation studies.Property state variables generate complex emergent functional relationships, and might be used like tracers to differentiate between locally produced and advected biomass. The model results suggest that the observed temperature dependence of heterotrophic growth efficiency [Rivkin, R.B., Legendre, L., 2001. Biogenic carbon cycling in the upper ocean: effects of microbial respiration. Science 291 (5512) 2398-2400] could be an emergent relation due to intercorrelations among temperature, nutrient concentration and growth efficiency. A major advantage of using property state variables is that no additional parameters are required, such that differences in model performance can be directly related to model structure rather than parameter tuning.     

Nutrient irrigation of the North Atlantic

The North Atlantic, as all major oceans, has a remarkable duality in primary production, manifested by the existence of well-defined high and low mean primary production regions. The largest region is the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (NASTG), an anticyclone characterized by bowl shaped isopycnals and low production. The NASTG is surrounded at its margins by smaller cyclonic high-production regions, where these isopycnals approach the sea surface. The most extensive cyclonic regions are those at the latitudinal extremes, i.e. the subpolar and tropical oceans, though smaller ones do occur at the zonal boundaries. In this article we review historical data and present new analyses of climatological data and a selected number of hydrographic cruises in the western/northwestern and eastern/southeastern boundaries of the NASTG, with the objective of investigating the importance of upward epipycnal advection of nutrient-rich subsurface layers (irrigation) in maintaining high primary production in the euphotic layers. In the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (NASPG) irrigation implies intergyre exchange caused by the outcropping extension of the Gulf Stream (GS), following the formation of the deep winter mixed-layer. In the eastern boundary of the NASTG irrigation is attained through a permanent upwelling cell, which feeds the Canary Upwelling Current (CUC). In the southeastern corner irrigation occurs in fall, when the Guinea Dome (GD) is reinforced, and in winter, when the CUC reaches its southernmost extension. Other characteristics of the north/south extension of the GS/CUC are the seasonal nutrient replenishing of subsurface layers (spring restratification of NASPG and winter relaxation of the GD) and the maintenance of high levels of diapycnal mixing during the last phase of nutrient transfer to the euphotic layers. Off the Mid-Atlantic Bight the GS transports a total of about 700 kmol s⁻¹ of nitrate, with almost 100 kmol s⁻¹ carried in the surface (σ_θ < 26.8) layers and some 350 kmol s⁻¹ in the intermediate (26.8 < σ_θ < 27.5) layers. A box model suggests that north of Cape Hatteras most surface and upper-thermocline nitrates are used to sustain the high levels of primary production in the NASPG. Off Cape Blanc there is winter along-shore convergence of order 10 kmol s⁻¹ of nitrate in the near-surface layers (possibly larger in summer), with only a small fraction used to sustain local primary production in the coastal upwelling band and the remainder carried to the interior ocean. Nutrients and biomass exported from these cyclonic regions may account for the concentration levels observed within the NASTG.