Sustainability of a Tidal Freshwater Marsh Exposed to a Long-term Hydrologic Barrier and Sea Level Rise

A 115-year-old railroad levee bisecting a tidal freshwater marsh perpendicular to the Patuxent River (Maryland) channel has created a northern, upstream marsh and a southern, downstream marsh. The main purpose of this study was to determine how this levee may affect the ability of the marsh system to gain elevation and to determine the levee’s impact on the marsh’s long-term sustainability to local relative sea level rise (RSLR). Previously unpublished data from 1989 to 1992 showed that suspended solids and short-term sediment deposition were greater in the south marsh compared to the north marsh; wetland surface elevation change data (1999 to 2009) showed significantly higher elevation gain in the south marsh compared to the north (6?±?2 vs. 0?±?2 mm year^?1, respectively). However, marsh surface accretion (2007 to 2009) showed no significant differences between north and south marshes (23?±?8 and 26?±?7 mm year^?1, respectively), and showed that shallow subsidence was an important process in both marshes. A strong seasonal effect was evident for both accretion and elevation change, with significant gains during the growing season and elevation loss during the non-growing season. Sediment transport, deposition and accretion decreased along the intertidal gradient, although no clear patterns in elevation change were recorded. Given the range in local RSLR rates in the Chesapeake Bay (2.9 to 5.8 mm year^?1), only the south marsh is keeping pace with sea level at the present time. Although one would expect the north marsh to benefit from high accretion of abundant riverine sediments, these results suggest that long-term elevation gain is a more nuanced process involving more than riverine sediments. Overall, other factors such as infrequent episodic coastal events may be important in allowing the south marsh to keep pace with sea level rise. Finally, caution should be exercised when using data sets spanning only a couple of years to estimate wetland sustainability as they may not be representative of long-term cumulative effects. Two years of data do not seem to be enough to establish long-term elevation change rates at Jug Bay, but instead a decadal time frame is more appropriate.     

Sediment accumulation at a fringe marsh during transgression,Oyster, Virginia

A variety of processes and sources account for the total accumulation of sediment on a fringe marsh. The rates of accretion across Brockenberry fringe marsh at the south end of the Delmarva Peninsula, Virginia, were determined by Pb-210 radiogeochronology. Rates are governed by the surface elevation with respect to midtide elevation, the rate of sea-level rise, and outwash from the mainland. Only some portions of the fringe marsh are able to keep pace with sea-level rise and thus migrate up the mainland slope during transgression.     

Contrasting Decadal-Scale Changes in Elevation and Vegetation in Two Long Island Sound Salt Marshes

Northeastern US salt marshes face multiple co-stressors, including accelerating rates of relative sea level rise (RSLR), elevated nutrient inputs, and low sediment supplies. In order to evaluate how marsh surface elevations respond to such factors, we used surface elevation tables (SETs) and surface elevation pins to measure changes in marsh surface elevation in two eastern Long Island Sound salt marshes, Barn Island and Mamacoke marshes. We compare marsh elevation change at these two systems with recent rates of RSLR and find evidence of differences between the two sites; Barn Island is maintaining its historic rate of elevation gain (2.3?±?0.24 mm year^?1 from 2003 to 2013) and is no longer keeping pace with RSLR, while Mamacoke shows evidence of a recent increase in rates (4.2?±?0.52 mm year^?1 from 1994 to 2014) to maintain its elevation relative to sea level. In addition to data on short-term elevation responses at these marshes, both sites have unusually long and detailed data on historic vegetation species composition extending back more than half a century. Over this study period, vegetation patterns track elevation change relative to sea levels, with the Barn Island plant community shifting towards those plants that are found at lower elevations and the Mamacoke vegetation patterns showing little change in plant composition. We hypothesize that the apparent contrasting trend in marsh elevation at the sites is due to differences in sediment availability, salinity, and elevation capital. Together, these two systems provide critical insight into the relationships between marsh elevation, high marsh plant community, and changing hydroperiods. Our results highlight that not all marshes in Southern New England may be responding to accelerated rates of RSLR in the same manner.     

Marsh aggradation and sediment distribution along rapidly submerging Louisiana gulf coast

A coastwide study of the relationship between marsh aggradation and water level changes along the rapidly deteriorating Louisiana gulf coast was conducted. Rate of vertical marsh accretion determined from¹³⁷Cs dating was compared to water level changes or submergence. Results identified marsh locations that are not keeping pace with submergence. Coastwide vertical accretion rates on the order of 0.7–0.8 cm/yr are not sufficient to keep pace with water level increases occurring at rates in most locations of over 1.0 cm/yr. Submergence rates were four to five times greater than eustatic sea level change for the Gulf of Mexico. Louisiana gulf coast marshes are likely to continue deteriorating unless means are implemented for distributing Mississippi River sediment to the marsh. It is estimated that sediment equivalent to less than 10 percent of the present annual suspended load of the Mississippi would provide enough sediment for marsh accretionary processes to compensate for submergence or water level increase.     

Balanced Sediment Fluxes in Southern California’s Mediterranean-Climate Zone Salt Marshes

Salt marsh elevation and geomorphic stability depends on mineral sedimentation. Many Mediterranean-climate salt marshes along southern California, USA coast import sediment during El Niño storm events, but sediment fluxes and mechanisms during dry weather are potentially important for marsh stability. We calculated tidal creek sediment fluxes within a highly modified, sediment-starved, 1.5-km² salt marsh (Seal Beach) and a less modified 1-km² marsh (Mugu) with fluvial sediment supply. We measured salt marsh plain suspended sediment concentration and vertical accretion using single stage samplers and marker horizons. At Seal Beach, a 2014 storm yielded 39 and 28 g/s mean sediment fluxes and imported 12,000 and 8800 kg in a western and eastern channel. Western channel storm imports offset 8700 kg exported during 2 months of dry weather, while eastern channel storm imports augmented 9200 kg imported during dry weather. During the storm at Mugu, suspended sediment concentrations on the marsh plain increased by a factor of four; accretion was 1–2 mm near creek levees. An exceptionally high tide sequence yielded 4.4 g/s mean sediment flux, importing 1700 kg: 20 % of Mugu’s dry weather fluxes. Overall, low sediment fluxes were observed, suggesting that these salt marshes are geomorphically stable during dry weather conditions. Results suggest storms and high lunar tides may play large roles, importing sediment and maintaining dry weather sediment flux balances for southern California salt marshes. However, under future climate change and sea level rise scenarios, results suggest that balanced sediment fluxes lead to marsh elevational instability based on estimated mineral sediment deficits.     

Influence of Physical Manipulations on Short-Term Salt Marsh Morphodynamics: Examples from the North and Mid-Atlantic Coast,USA

Along the mid- and north Atlantic coasts of the USA, over 90 % of salt marshes have been ditched. Ditching was largely abandoned by the mid-twentieth century; however, techniques that create permanent shallow water pools for mosquito control and bird habitat are increasingly being applied to marshes of the USA and elsewhere. Salt marshes in Plum Island Sound, Massachusetts, and Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, were used to examine differences between areas that have been ditched and those altered to increase the density of shallow pools in water table dynamics, salinity, soil and porewater chemistry, as well as short-term sedimentation, accretion, and elevation change rates. We found that the area with plugged ditches, berms, and pools in Plum Island had less drainage, higher salinity and porewater sulfide and ammonium concentrations, and higher soil organic matter than the adjacent ditched area. Despite averaging 8 cm lower in elevation, the Plum Island ditched area had less sediment deposition and was composed of higher elevation plant species than the area with plugged ditches, berms, and shallow pools. Elevation increased in the ditched area at a rate of 3.2 ± 0.5 mm/year, but elevation change was variable in the area with pools. In Barnegat Bay, the marsh area with pools and ditches had less sediment deposition and surface accretion than the ditch-only area, associated, in part, with the higher elevation. An average elevation difference of 4.5 cm was associated with a sixfold difference in mineral sediment deposition. Temporal sediment deposition and surface accretion was important in the ditch-only area but was absent or muted in the area with numerous pools. Elevation increased in both marsh areas at an average rate of 1.8 ± 0.8 mm/year, less than half the long-term average local rate of sea-level rise. Our results illustrate how physical manipulations including changes to tidal hydrology and surface topography interact with elevation to influence short-term biophysical feedbacks.     

The Declining Role of Organic Matter in New England Salt Marshes

The Northeast USA is experiencing severe impacts of a changing climate, including increased winter temperatures and accelerated relative sea level rise (RSLR). The sediment-poor, organic-rich nature of many Southern New England salt marshes makes them particularly vulnerable to these changes. In order to assess how marsh accretion has changed over time, we returned to Narragansett Bay, RI where salt marsh vertical accretion rates were documented almost 30 years ago. Using radionuclide tracers (²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs), we observe no significant change in overall accretion rates (0.27–0.69 cm year^?1) compared to historical averages (0.24–0.60 cm year^?1), but we document a shift in how these marshes maintain elevation. Organic matter now plays a smaller role in contributing to vertical accretion across all study sites, declining by 22 % on average. We attribute this reduction to potentially higher decomposition rates fueled by higher water temperature. Inorganic matter also contributes less to accretion (declining by 44 % on average at marshes located more internal to the estuary), likely due to diminishing sediment supply in this region. With organic and inorganic solids accounting for less of the total accretion, several of the marshes are experiencing symptoms of swelling, with water and porespace contributing more towards accretion compared to historical values. Accretion rates (0.27–0.45 cm year^?1) at these organic-rich (>40 % sediment organic matter) marshes are predominantly lower than the current (30 years) rate of RSLR (0.41?±?0.07 cm year^?1). These results, combined with the increased rate of RSLR and the hardened shorelines inhibiting landward migration, call into question the long-term survivability of these marshes.     

Evolution of tidal creek networks in a high sedimentation environment: A 5-year experiment at Tijuana Estuary, California

In a large (8 ha) salt marsh restoration site, we tested the effects of excavating tidal creeks patterned after reference systems. Our purposes were to enhance understanding of tidal creek networks and to test the need to excavate creeks during salt marsh restoration. We compared geomorphic changes in areas with and without creek networks (n = 3; each area 1.3 ha) and monitored creek cross-sectional areas, creek lengths, vertical accretion, and marsh surface elevations for 5 yr that included multiple sedimentation events. We hypothesized that cells with creeks would develop different marsh surface and creek network characteristics (i.e., surface elevation change, sedimentation rate, creek cross-sectional area, length, and drainage density). Marsh surface vertical accretion averaged 1.3 cm yr⁻¹ with large storm inputs, providing the opportunity to assess the response of the drainage network to extreme sedimentation rates. The constructed creeks initially filled due to high accretion rates but stabilized at cross-sectional areas matching, or on a trajectory toward, equilibrium values predicted by regional regression equations. Sedimentation on the marsh surface was greatest in low elevation areas and was not directly influenced by creeks. Time required for cross-sectional area stabilization ranged from 0 to > 5 yr, depending on creek order. First-order constructed creeks lengthened rapidly (mean rate of 1.3 m yr⁻¹) in areas of low elevation and low vegetation cover. New (volunteer) creeks formed rapidly in cells without creeks in areas with low elevation, low vegetation cover, and high elevation gradient (mean rate of 6.2 m yr⁻¹). After 5 yr, volunteer creeks were, at most, one-fourth the area of constructed creeks and had not yet reached the upper marsh plain. In just 4 yr, the site’s drainage density expanded from 0.018 to reference levels of 0.022 m m⁻². Pools also formed on the marsh plain due to sediment resuspension associated with wind-driven waves. We conclude that excavated creeks jump-started the development of drainage density and creek and channel dimensions, and that the tidal prism became similar to those of the reference site in 4–5 yr.     

The Role of Sediment Dynamics for Inorganic Accretion Patterns in Southern California’s Mediterranean-Climate Salt Marshes

Salt marsh resilience to sea-level rise depends on marsh plain elevation, tidal range, subsurface processes, as well as surface accretion, of which suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) is a critical component. However, spatial and temporal patterns of inorganic sedimentation are poorly quantified within and across Salicornia pacifica (pickleweed)-dominated marshes. We compared vertical accretion rates and re-examined previously published suspended-sediment patterns during dry-weather periods at Seal Beach Wetlands, which is characterized by a mix of Spartina foliosa (cordgrass) and pickleweed, and for Mugu Lagoon, where cordgrass is rare. Mugu Lagoon occurs higher in the tidal frame and receives terrigenous sediment from an adjacent creek. Feldspar marker horizons were established in winter 2013–2014 to measure accretion. Accretion rates at Seal Beach Wetlands and Mugu Lagoon were 6 ± 0.5 mm/year (mean ± SE) and 2 ± 0.3 mm/year. Also, the estimated sediment flux (g/year) across the random feldspar plots was 3.5 times higher at Seal Beach Wetlands. At Mugu Lagoon, accretion was higher near creeks, although not statistically significant. Dry-weather SSC showed similar concentrations at transect locations across sites. During wet weather, however, SSC at Mugu Lagoon increased at all locations, with concentrations decaying farther than 8 m from tidal creek edge. Based on these results from Mugu Lagoon, we conclude accretion patterns are set by infrequent large flooding events in systems where there is a watershed sediment source. Higher accretion rates at Seal Beach Wetlands may be linked to lower-marsh elevations, and thus more frequent inundation, compared with Mugu Lagoon.     

Influence of Wind-Driven Inundation and Coastal Geomorphology on Sedimentation in Two Microtidal Marshes, Pamlico River Estuary, NC

Marsh sediment accumulation is predominately a combination of in situ organic accumulation and mineral sediment input during inundation. Within the Pamlico River Estuary (PRE), marsh inundation is dependent upon event (e.g., storms) and seasonal wind patterns due to minimal astronomical tides (<10 cm). A better understanding of the processes controlling sediment deposition and, ultimately, marsh accretion is needed to forecast marsh sustainability with changing land usage, climate, and sea level rise. This study examines marsh topography, inundation depth, duration of inundation, and wind velocity to identify relationships between short-term deposition (tile-based) and long-term accumulation (²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs) recorded within and adjacent to the PRE. The results of this study indicate (1) similar sedimentation patterns between the interior marsh and shore-side marsh at different sites regardless of elevation, (2) increased sedimentation (one to two orders of magnitude, 0.04–4.54 g m^?2 day^?1) within the interior marsh when the water levels exceeded the adjacent topography (e.g., storm berm), and (3) that short-term sea level changes can have direct effects on sediment delivery to interior marshes in wind-driven estuarine systems.     

Seasonal and environmental variations in sediment accretion in a Long Island salt marsh

Flax Pond is a small (0.5 km²) salt marsh on the north shore of Long Island, New York. Two 1 m² plots within each of the following environments were covered with a marker layer of either brick dust or aluminum glitter: 1) bare mud flats; 2) areas newly colonized by Spartina alterniflora; and 3) high intertidal. S. alterniflora peat surfaces. Monthly cores revealed the amount of sediment that accumulated since placement of the marker. Accretion rates from October, 1974 to February, 1976 were as follows: bare mud flats ?20.5 to 45.5 mm/yr; recently vegetated mud flats ?9.5 to 37.0 mm/yr; and high intertidal peat surfaces ?2.0 to 4.25 mm/yr. Sedimentation rates decrease with increasing elevation because of the reduced tidal submergence time and decreased height of the overlying water column. In areas of low elevation, ice and storms cause either erosion or a reduced rate of accretion during the winter months. The average mud accretion rate over the past 173 years is 3.4 mm/yr. Differences between the short-term rate and the long-term rate indicate substantial annual variation in the accumulation of mud in salt marshes. Short-term rates of peat accretion are similar to long-term estimates, indicating that rates of peat accretion are relatively constant over long intervals.     

Surface elevation dynamics in vegetatedSpartina marshes versus unvegetated tidal ponds along the Mid-Atlantic coast, USA, with implications to waterbirds

Mid Atlantic coastal salt marshes contain a matrix of vegetation diversified by tidal pools, pannes, and creeks, providing habitats of varying importance to many species of breeding, migrating, and wintering waterbirds. We hypothesized that changes in marsh elevation were not sufficient to keep pace with those of sea level in both vegetated and unvegetatedSpartina alterniflora sites at a number of mid lagoon marsh areas along the Atlantic Coast. We also predicted that northern areas would suffer less of a deficit than would southern sites. Beginning in August 1998, we installed surface elevation tables at study sites on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, southern New Jersey, and two locations along Virginia's eastern shore. We compared these elevation changes over the 4–4.5 yr record with the long-term (>50 yr) tidal records for each locale. We also collected data on waterbird use of these sites during all seasons of the year, based on ground surveys and replicated surveys from observation platforms. Three patterns of marsh elevation change were found. At Nauset Marsh, Cape Cod, theSpartina marsh surface tracked the pond surface, both keeping pace with regional sea-level rise rates. In New Jersey, the ponds are becoming deeper while marsh surface elevation remains unchanged from the initial reading. This may result in a submergence of the marsh in the future, assuming sea-level rise continues at current rates. Ponds at both Virginia sites are filling in, while marsh surface elevation rates do not seem to be keeping pace with local sea-level rise. An additional finding at all sites was that subsidence in the vegetated marsh surfaces was less than in unvegetated areas, reflecting the importance of the root mat in stabilizing sediments. The implications to migratory waterbirds are significant. Submergence of much of the lagoonal marsh area in Virginia and New Jersey over the next century could have major negative (i.e., flooding) effects on nesting populations of marsh-dependent seaside sparrowsAmmodramus maritimus, saltmarsh sharp-tailed sparrowsAmmodramus caudacutus, black railsLaterallus jamaicensis, clapper railsRallus longirostris. Forster's ternsSterna forsteri, common ternsSterna hirundo, and gull-billed ternsSterna nilotica. Although short-term inundation of many lagoonal marshes may benefit some open-water feeding ducks, geese, and swans during winter, the long-term ecosystem effects may be detrimental, as wildlife resources will be lost or displaced. With the reduction in area of emergent marsh, estuarine secondary productivity and biotic diversity will also be reduced.     

Accretion rates and sediment accumulation in Rhode Island salt marshes

In order to test the assumption that accretion rates of intertidal salt marshes are approximately equal to rates of sea-level rise along the Rhode Island coast,²¹⁰Pb analyses were carried out and accretion rates calculated using constant flux and constant activity models applied to sediment cores collected from lowSpartina alterniflora marshes at four sites from the head to the mouth of Narragansett Bay. A core was also collected from a highSpartina patens marsh at one site. Additional low marsh cores from a tidal river entering the bay and a coastal lagoon on Block Island Sound were also analyzed. Accretion rates for all cores were also calculated from copper concentration data assuming that anthropogenic copper increases began at all sites between 1865 and 1885. Bulk density and weight-loss-on-ignition of the sediments were measured in order to assess the relative importance of inorganic and organic accumulation. During the past 60 yr, accretion rates at the eight low marsh sites averaged 0.43±0.13 cm yr^?1 (0.25 to 0.60 cm yr^?1) based on the constant flux model, 0.40±0.15 cm yr^?1 (0.15 to 0.58 cm yr^?1) based on the constant activity model, and 0.44±0.11 cm yr^?1 (0.30 to 0.59 cm yr^?1) based on copper concentration data, with no apparent trend down-bay. High marsh rates were 0.24±0.02 (constant flux), 0.25±0.01 (constant activity), and 0.47±0.04 (copper concentration data). The cores showing closest agreement between the three methods are those for which the excess²¹⁰Pb inventories are consistent with atmospheric inputs. These rates compare to a tide gauge record from the mouth of the bay that shows an average sea-level rise of 0.26±0.02 cm yr^?1 from 1931 to 1986. Low marshes in this area appear to accrete at rates 1.5–1.7 times greater than local relative sea-level rise, while the high marsh accretion rate is equal to the rise in sea level. The variability among the low marsh sites suggests that marshes may not be poised at mean water level to within better than ±several cm on time scales of decades. Inorganic and organic dry solids each contributed about 9% by volume to low marsh accretion, while organic dry solids contributed 11% and inorganic 4% to high marsh accretion. Water/pore space accounted for the majority of accretion in both low and high marshes. If water associated with the organic component is considered, organic matter accounts for an average of 91% of low marsh and 96% of high marsh accretion. A dramatic increase in the organic content at a depth of 60 to 90 cm in the cores from Narragansett Bay appears to mark the start of marsh development on prograding sand flats.     

Effects of impoundment on vertical accretion of coastal marsh

Vertical accretion of impounded marsh and adjacent natural marsh at four sites in southwestern Louisiana was estimated in 1994 by determining the depth of a stratum containing¹³⁷Cs deposited in 1963. With relative marsh elevation, soil bulk density, organic matter content, and organic and mineral matter accumulation rates were used to describe soil formation. Three sites were impounded in 1956 and one site in 1951. Impounded marshes had lower marsh surface elevation than natural marshes because of hydrologic isolation from tidal sediment subsidies and substrate oxidation during forced drying. The elevation of natural marshes ranged from 12 cm to 42 cm higher than the elevation of the impounded marshes in 1963 and from 20 cm to 32 cm higher in 1994. Vertical accretion between 1963 and 1994 ranged from 9 cm to 28 cm in impounded marsh and from 15 cm to 21.5 cm in natural marsh. Only in impounded marsh that remained permanently flooded was accretion greater than in natural marsh.     

Tidal Marsh Restoration Design Affects Feedbacks Between Inundation and Elevation Change

Tidal marsh (re)creation on formerly embanked land is increasingly executed along estuaries and coasts in Europe and the USA, either by restoring complete or by reduced tidal exchange. Ecosystem functioning and services are largely affected by the hydro-geomorphologic development of these areas. For natural marshes, the latter is known to be steered by feedbacks between tidal inundation and sediment accretion, allowing marshes to reach and maintain an equilibrium elevation relative to the mean sea level. However, for marsh restoration sites, these feedbacks may be disturbed depending on the restoration design. This was investigated by comparing the inundation-elevation change feedbacks in a natural versus restoration site with reduced tidal exchange in the Scheldt estuary (Belgium). This study analyzes long-term (9 years) datasets on elevation change and tidal inundation properties to disentangle the different mechanisms behind this elevation-inundation feedback. Moreover, subsequent changes in sediment properties that may affect this feedback were explored. In the restoration area with reduced tidal exchange, we found a different elevation-inundation feedback than on natural marshes, which is a positive feedback on initially high sites (i.e., sediment accretion leads to increasing inundation, hence causing accelerating sediment accretion rates) and a gradual silting up of the whole area. Furthermore, there is evidence for the presence of a relict consolidated sediment layer. Consequently, shallow subsidence is less likely to occur. Although short-term ecological development of the tidal marsh was not impeded, long-term habitat development may be affected by the differences in hydro-geomorphological interactions. An increase of inundation frequency on the initially high sites may cause inhibition of habitat succession or even reversed succession. Over time, the climax state of the restoration area may be different compared to natural marshes. Moreover, sediment-related ecosystem services, such as nutrient and carbon burial, may be positively influenced because of continuing sedimentation, although flood water storage potential will decrease with increasing elevation. Depending on the restoration goals, ecosystem trajectories and delivery of ecosystem services can be controlled by adaptive management of the tidal volume entering the restoration area.     

Development and Application of a Method to Identify Salt Marsh Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise

Wetlands are commonly assessed for ecological condition and biological integrity using a three-tiered framework of landscape-scale assessment, rapid assessment protocols, and intensive biological and physiochemical measurements. However, increased inundation resulting from accelerated sea level rise (SLR) is negatively impacting tidal marsh ecosystem functions for US Northeast coastal wetlands, yet relative vulnerability to this stressor is not incorporated in condition assessments. This article assesses tools available to measure coastal wetland vulnerability to SLR, including measurements made as part of traditional rapid condition assessments (e.g., vegetation communities, soil strength), field and remote sensing-based measurements of elevation, VDatum, and Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) model outputs. A vulnerability metric that incorporates these tools was calibrated and validated using recent rates of marsh vegetation losses (1972–2011) as a surrogate for future vulnerability. The metric includes complementary measures of elevation capital, including the percentage of high vs. low marsh vegetation, Spartina alterniflora height, elevation measurements, and SLAMM outputs that collectively explained 62% of the variability in recent rates of marsh vegetation loss. Stepwise regression revealed that all three elements (elevation, vegetation measures, and SLAMM outputs) explained significant and largely unique components of vulnerability to SLR, with the greatest level of overlap found between SLAMM outputs and elevation metrics. While soil strength varied predictably with habitat zone, it did not contribute significantly to the vulnerability metric. Despite the importance of determining wetland elevation above key tidal datums of mean sea level and mean high water, we caution that VDatum was found to perform poorly in back-barrier estuaries. This factor makes it difficult to compare elevation capital among marshes that differ in tidal range and poses accuracy problems for broad-scale modeling efforts that require accurate tidal datums. Given the pervasive pattern of coastal wetland drowning occurring in the Northeastern USA and elsewhere, we advocate that compilation of regional data on marsh habitats and vulnerability to SLR is crucial as it permits agencies to target adaptation to sites based on their vulnerability or mixture of habitats, it helps match sites to appropriate interventions, and it provides a broader regional context to site-specific management actions. Without such data, adaptation actions may be implemented where action is not necessary and to the disadvantage of vulnerable sites where opportunities for successful adaptation will be missed.     

Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) and Its Application to Habitat Sustainability for Endangered Species in the San Francisco Estuary

Salt marsh faunas are constrained by specific habitat requirements for marsh elevation relative to sea level and tidal range. As sea level rises, changes in relative elevation of the marsh plain will have differing impacts on the availability of habitat for marsh obligate species. The Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) is a 1-D model of elevation that incorporates both biological and physical processes of vertical marsh accretion. Here, we use WARMER to evaluate changes in marsh surface elevation and the impact of these elevation changes on marsh habitat for specific species of concern. Model results were compared to elevation-based habitat criteria developed for marsh vegetation, the endangered California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus), and the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) to determine the response of marsh habitat for each species to predicted >1-m sea-level rise by 2100. Feedback between vertical accretion mechanisms and elevation reduced the effect of initial elevation in the modeled scenarios. Elevation decreased nonlinearly with larger changes in elevation during the latter half of the century when the rate of sea-level rise increased. Model scenarios indicated that changes in elevation will degrade habitat quality within salt marshes in the San Francisco Estuary, and degradation will accelerate in the latter half of the century as the rate of sea-level rise accelerates. A sensitivity analysis of the model results showed that inorganic sediment accumulation and the rate of sea-level rise had the greatest influence over salt marsh sustainability.     

Sustainability of Mediterranean Deltaic and Lagoon Wetlands with Sea-Level Rise: The Importance of River Input

We report on a decadal trend of accretionary dynamics in the wetlands of several northwestern Mediterranean deltas and a lagoon system, all of them with high rates of wetland loss. Wetland vertical accretion and surface elevation change were measured at 55 riverine, marine, and impounded sites in four coastal systems: the Ebro delta, Spain; the Rhône delta, France; and the Po delta and Venice Lagoon, Italy. Vertical accretion and elevation change ranged between 0 and 25 mm year^?1 and were strongly correlated. The highest rates of elevation gain occurred at riverine sites where vertical accretion was highest. We conclude that areas with high sediment input, mainly riverine, are the only ones likely to survive accelerated sea-level rise, especially if recent higher estimates of 1 m or more in the twenty-first century prove to be accurate. This is the first study where the importance of river input on wetland survival has been demonstrated at a decadal time scale over a broad geographical area.     

Contemporary process controls on the evolution of sedimentary coasts under low to high energy regimes: western Ireland

Sedimentary environments, representative of the Irish west coast, have been studied to examine their responses at the microscale (10^-1–10⁰ yr). This was achieved using a variety of techniques, including grain-size analysis, measurement of accretionary responses and radiometric dating. Monthly elevation monitoring of silt-dominated marshes shows an annual pattern in sediment accumulation. This reflects two processes: a) winter accretion attributable to storm events, and b) summer consolidation and contraction of the marsh sediments. Together, the results suggest that intertidal sedimentation is likely to be dominated by episodic processes, primarily storms. Examination of the tidal regime shows a weaker than expected influence of hydroperiodicity on intertidal accretion, although this influence remains distinctive, as expressed by a landward textural fining. Storms were also identified as of major importance in the functioning of higher-energy sandy coastal systems, again having a largely accretional influence, primarily through aeolian transport. Erosion at such study sites is probably controlled by the attainment of a critical threshold surface elevation, or by exceptional storm action, or a combination of both. The linking of microscale sedimentation rates with those at the meso- to macroscale, and assessment of their importance for coastal functioning, is difficult due to the geological averaging effect of the sedimentary record. Human impacts on this coast in historical times are large but difficult to quantify.     

Nekton Use of Flooded Salt Marsh and an Assessment of Intertidal Creek Pools as Low-Tide Refuges

Patterns of nekton occurrence on the salt marsh surface at high tide and in an adjacent intertidal creek pool at low tide were used to investigate movements of nekton in an intertidal basin. Paired collections were made in North Inlet estuary, SC on 67 dates over 9 years. Comparisons of high- and low-tide total abundance indicated that what remained in the creek pool at low tide was representative of the nekton on the flooded marsh. Of the 64 taxa collected, the same 8 species ranked in the top 10 in both the high- and low-tide collections. Abundances of most resident species were positively correlated with the area of marsh flooded, but mummichog (Fundulus heteroclitus), the most abundant resident, was not. Abundances of young-of-the-year transient species were not related to the extent of tidal flooding. Some transient species used the flooded marsh but did not occupy the pool at low tide, and others found in the pool did not use the marsh. Differences in abundance, biomass, and length between the marsh and pool collections indicated differences in the tendency of species and life stages to retreat downstream of the pool to the subtidal channel. Proportionately more of the nekton that were present on the flooded marsh left the intertidal basin when large changes in temperature and salinity occurred between high and low tides. More transients left the basin following higher tides, but more residents did not. The results demonstrate a wide range of taxonomic and ontogenetic patterns among nekton using intertidal salt marsh basins and the underappreciated importance of intertidal creek pools as alternative low-tide refuges.