Local rainfall thresholds for forecasting landslide occurrence: Taipingshan landslide triggered by Typhoon Saola

This paper presents a case study of the Taipingshan landslide, which was triggered by Typhoon Saola in 2012. Taipingshan villa is one of the most famous scenic locations within the Taipingshan National Forest Recreation Area in northern Taiwan. Since the early 1990s, evidence of recent landslide activity appeared throughout the Taipingshan villa and included features such as tension cracks, ground settlement, and cracking in manmade structures. In response, a series of geological investigations and in-site/laboratory tests were conducted in 2010 to estimate slope stability and predict critical rainfall thresholds (event accumulated rainfall) for landslide activity. Results revealed that the critical rainfall threshold for the Taipingshan National Forest Recreation Area is 1765 mm. In 2012, that threshold was tested when Typhoon Saola brought tremendous rainfall to northern and eastern Taiwan and triggered activity along the main scarp of sliding mass B located near the History Exhibition Hall. According to in situ extensometer readings and on-site precipitation data, the extensometer was severed at an accumulated rainfall 1694 mm. Field monitoring data during the typhoon event are in good agreement with the rainfall threshold. These preliminary results suggest that the threshold may be useful for assessing the rainfall threshold of other landslides and a good reference for establishing early warning systems for landslides.     

Formation and failure of the Tsatichhu landslide dam, Bhutan

At 00:30 (local time) on the 10th September 2003 a joint and foliation defined wedge of material with an estimated volume of 7–12×10⁶ m³ slid into the narrow Tsatichhu River Valley, in Jarrey Geog, Lhuentse, eastern Bhutan. The Tsatichhu River, a north–easterly flowing tributary of the Kurichuu River, was completely blocked by the landslide. During its movement, the landslide transitioned into a rock avalanche that travelled 580 m across the valley before colliding with the opposite valley wall. The flow then moved down valley, travelling a total distance of some 700 m. The rock avalanche was accompanied by an intense wind blast that caused substantial damage to the heavily forested valley slopes. The resulting geomorphologically-typical rock-avalanche dam deposit created a dam that impounded a water volume of 4–7×10⁶ m³ at lake full level. This lake was released by catastrophic collapse of the landslide, which occurred at 16:20 (local time) on 10th July 2004, after reported smaller failures of the saturated downstream face. The dam failure released a flood wave that had a peak discharge of 5900 m³ s⁻¹ at the Kurichhu Hydropower Plant 35 km downstream.     

重建莫拉克台风引致台湾小林村堰塞湖坝体几何形状

<正>2009年8月莫拉克台风造成于台湾小林村献肚山大山崩,于旗山溪形成堰塞湖后在很短时间内发生溢顶破坏。该研究由航照图、灾前与溃坝后DTM、土壤物性试验与野外调查,根据崩塌与坝体堆积平衡,结合堰塞湖溢流时间,重建小林村天然坝地形与水文参数,并进行坝体稳定性分析。结果显示小林村堰塞湖天然坝主要由透水性低、易冲蚀的细颗粒组分组成,坝体积为15.34×10~6m~3,溢流点坝高及最大坝高分别为44m及60m,坝长与坝     

The Stogovce landslide in SW Slovenia triggered during the September 2010 extreme rainfall event

From September 16 to September 20, 2010, a cold weather front went across Slovenia. A heavy 4-day rainfall totaling between 300 and 520 mm caused large floods and triggered numerous rainfall-induced landslides. The damage due to the floods and landslides is estimated over 250 million Euros. One of the largest landslides covering the area of approximately 15 ha was triggered on flysch bedrock, just below a limestone overthrust zone. The sliding material properties, the inclinations of the slope, and the water catchment area indicate that the landslide may transform into a fast moving debris flow. The necessary protective measures were taken to protect inhabitants and the infrastructure against the disaster. The Stogovce landslide is one of the numerous rainfall-induced landslides that have occurred in Slovenia on flysch bedrock in the last 10 years. It proves that landslide risk on flysch territory is increasing. Special program of monitoring and protective measures will have to be developed in near future to protect densely populated areas against landslides as a consequence of weather extremes.     

An experimental and numerical study of a landslide triggered by an extreme rainfall event in northern Australia

In February/March 2007, an extreme rainfall event occurred in the Jabiru region of the Northern Territory of Australia. Rainfall of 784 mm fell in a 72-h period. This rainfall event resulted in 49 separate landslides occurring in the adjacent, but remote and inaccessible region of Arnhem Land. The landslides were extensively mapped and characterised. A common feature of the landslides was their relatively surficial nature. This paper reports on laboratory and field tests to characterise the material properties of the slide material and the underlying, more competent material. One particular, large and relatively accessible landslide was chosen for detailed investigation. The experimental data are used to carry out seepage and slope stability analyses, taking account of changes in the degree of saturation (and thus the negative pore water pressure or suction) in the slope material during the rainfall event in question. Using a parametric study in which various material parameters were varied around the measured mean values, it is shown that the failure of this particular slope could have been predicted using relatively straightforward seepage and limit equilibrium slope stability analyses, coupled with the relevant rainfall data, as long as the contribution of matric suction to the engineering characteristics of the slope material was accounted for. The work also highlights the importance of in situ conditions at the time a particular rainfall event (particularly an extreme event such as that considered in this paper) occurs. If the slope has a relatively high degree of saturation, manifested as a low initial in situ suction, it is more susceptible to rainfall triggering a slope failure. Although this observation is not novel, the investigation described in this paper confirms the importance of ambient in situ conditions and provides an indication of how the likelihood of landslide occurrence at this particular site may in the future be quantified, i.e. by focussing on antecedent rainfall history.     

Formation conditions of outburst debris flow triggered by overtopped natural dam failure

Natural dams formed by landslides may produce disastrous debris flows after dam outburst. However, studies on the critical conditions required for the formation of outburst debris flow resulting from natural dam failure are still at an early stage. In this paper, we present the results of a series of laboratory tests that assessed three different materials, five different flume bed slope angles (2°, 7°, 9°, 10°, and 13°), two in-flow rates, and four types of dam geometric shapes. The results showed that the unit weight of downstream fluid increased with increasing bed channel slope. Additionally, a critical flume bed angle was found for debris flow formation. Furthermore, the combination of lake volume and flume bed angle was found to influence the formation of debris flow. A nonlinear trend was observed between the unit weights of debris flow and the uniformity coefficients of solid material. Based on the theory of stream power, a critical condition for debris flow formation from natural dam failure was established. Based on two case studies, the results indicate that the condition that was established for debris flow formation following natural dam failure agrees well with reality.     

A multidisciplinary investigation of deep-seated landslide reactivation triggered by an extreme rainfall event: a case study of the Monesi di Mendatica landslide,Ligurian Alps

Landslides - In November 2016, an extreme rainfall event affected the Ligurian Alps (NW Italy). Consequently, several landslides and debris flows occurred in the upper Tanarello stream basin. In...     

地震与豪雨作用触发崩塌地形特性——以隘寮溪流域为例

<正>近年来台湾地震及台风豪雨频繁,时常造成地质灾害。"921"地震后,坡地发生崩塌比例明显增加,其后遭遇较大降雨形成的土砂灾害有日益严重趋势。多数学者多认为不同的触发因子对崩塌区位有所影响,地震引发的崩塌多位于凸坡的坡顶,其面积较小;而降雨引发的崩塌则多发生于山腹及边坡坡趾部位,其面积通常较地震引发的崩塌大(洪如江2000;Pierson,1977;Fuchu,1999)。     

Modeling of layered infinite slope failure triggered by rainfall

The infinite slope is typically regarded as composed of a single-layered soil with a uniform property in various physical-based models used for modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslides. This study extends the physical-based model to consider the layered infinite slope to examine the importance of soil layer distribution for rainfall-induced shallow landslides. Hypothetical scenarios of infinite slope composed of soil layers with different thicknesses and parameters are employed to conduct this examination. The results show that pressure heads caused by rainfall infiltration are strongly related to soil layer distribution. This shows the significant influence of soil layer distribution in assessing infinite slope stability. Failure of a layered infinite slope does not necessarily occur at the impervious bottom of the hillslope soil, but may also occur at the interface between two soil layers. This result shows that a neglect of soil layer distribution could misestimate failure depth. Hence, soil layer distribution must be considered to reliably analyze infinite slope failure induced by rainfall.     

Analysis of the Chiufengershan landslide triggered by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan

A disastrous earthquake rocked Taiwan on September 21, 1999, with magnitude M_L=7.3 and an epicenter near the small town of Chi-Chi in central Taiwan. The Chi-Chi earthquake triggered landslide on the dip slope at the Chiufengershan. In this study, a review of the topography and geology of this area was followed by field investigations. Laboratory testing was applied to understand the geomaterial composing the slope. Then, based on a series of limit equilibrium analyses, the failure mechanism of this landslide and the risk of the residual slope were studied.

According to the stability analyses, the pre-quake slope is quite stable, with factor of safety of 1.77 (dry) to 1.35 (full groundwater level); explaining why there is no written record of a landslide here for the past 100 years. In contrast, a back analysis shows that the Chi-Chi earthquake-induced dynamic loading is far more than the dip slope can sustain, due in part to the short distance to the epicenter. A Monte Carlo type probability analysis suggests that the residual slope is more dangerous than the pre-quake slope and needs more attention.     

Geological causes and geomorphological precursors of the Tsaoling landslide triggered by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan

The Tsaoling landslide, one of the largest landslide areas in Taiwan, has been affected by catastrophic events triggered by rain or earthquakes six times since 1862. These landslides, including that caused by the 1999 earthquake, have essentially not been reactivated old slides, but were sequential new ones that developed upslope, retrogressively. The landslide area is underlain by Pliocene sandstone and shale to form a dip slope with a bedding plane, dipping uniformly at 14°. The slip surface of the 1999 landslide was smooth and planar, parallel to the bedding plane with a slightly stepped profile; it formed within thinly alternated beds of fine sandstone and shale with ripple lamination or in a shale bed. The shale is weathered by slaking and probably by sulfuric acid, which is inferred to be one of the major causes of the intermittent retrogressive development of the landslides. The weathering was likely accelerated by the removal of overlying beds during earlier landslides in 1941 and 1942. The top margin of the 1999 landslide, in plan view, coincided with a V-shaped scarplet, which can be clearly recognized on aerial photographs taken before the landslide. This geomorphological feature indicates that this landslide had already moved slightly before its 1999 occurrence, providing precursory evidences.     

Mechanism of a long-runout landslide triggered by the August 1998 heavy rainfall in Fukushima Prefecture,Japan

Heavy rainfall from 26 to 31 August 1998 triggered many landslides in Nishigo Village of southern Fukushima Prefecture, Japan. The Hiegaesi landslide, a long-runout landslide with travel angle of 11°, which occurred in loamy volcanic-ash/pumice layer and was deposited in a nearby rice paddy, was investigated. In an observation pit dug in the middle part of the landslide deposit, the sliding zone just above the deflected rice plants was observed, and it was confirmed that grain crushing occurred in the sliding zone. The triggering and sliding mechanisms of this landslide then were investigated by ring-shear tests in laboratory. For the triggering mechanism, one saturated naturally drained test (test A: torque-controlled test) and one saturated undrained test (test B: speed-controlled test) were conducted on the samples taken from the source area of the landslide. Even in the naturally drained test opening the upper drain valve of the shear box, a temporary liquefaction occurred. In the undrained test, excess pore-pressure was generated along with shearing, and “sliding-surface liquefaction” phenomenon was observed. The effective stress and shear resistance finally decreased to near zero. These results can explain the observed phenomenon of small friction resistance like a flow of liquid when the sliding mass slid out of the source area. For the sliding mechanism of the landslide in the rice paddy, saturated undrained test (test C: speed-controlled test) was performed on soil sample above the deflected rice plants. The apparent friction angle obtained in this test was 8°. In addition, the residual friction angle measured after test B and test C was the same value of 41°. Combining with the observation on the shear zone in the ring-shear box after test C, it is concluded that, during the sliding in rice paddy, the undrained shear strength of the soil layer itself mainly influenced the high mobility of the landslide, probably because the friction between rice plants and soils is greater than the undrained shear strength inside the soil mass.     

Spatio-temporal estimation of shallow landslide hazard triggered by rainfall using a three-dimensional model

A shallow landslide triggered by rainfall can be forecast in real-time by modeling the relationship between rainfall infiltration and decrease of slope stability. This paper describes a promising approach that combines an improved three-dimensional slope stability model with an approximate method based on the Green and Ampt model, to estimate the time–space distribution of shallow landslide hazards. Once a forecast of rainfall intensity and slope stability-related data, e.g., terrain and geology data, are acquired, this approach is shown to have the ability to estimate the variation of slope stability of a wide natural area during rainfall and to identify the location of potential failure surfaces. The effectiveness of the estimation procedures described has been tested by comparison with a one-dimensional method and by application to a landslide-prone area in Japan.     

Levee failure mechanisms during the extreme rainfall event: a case study in Southern Taiwan

Extreme weather has recently caused many disasters worldwide. In August 8, 2009, Southern Taiwan suffered from serious floods during Typhoon Morakot. In this extreme rainfall event, the Chiuliao first levee in the Laonong River basin experienced catastrophic failure. Therefore, this study focuses on the levee failure mechanisms based on variations in levee water levels. Specifically, this study investigates four mechanisms based on limit state equilibrium. The first mechanism involves the slope stability under hydrostatic conditions at various water levels. The results of this analysis show that the levee cannot fail under this mechanism. The second mechanism involves the levee slope stability with steady-state seepage. Because the water levels are different on the protected and flood sides, the water recedes much faster on the flood side than the protected side. Based on this analysis, the levee slope might fail when the water level at the protected side is close to the top of levee and the water level at the flood side starts to recede. The third and fourth mechanisms involve the levee foundation failure in terms of sliding and overturning failure. The results of this study indicate that the levee foundation is more prone to sliding failure than overturning failure. Based on these results, this study shows that the levee failed when the water level at the protected side neared the top of levee while the water level at flood side started to recede. At this moment, the levee may fail because of both the slope failure with seepage and sliding failure of the levee foundation.     

The July 10, 2020, red-bed landslide triggered by continuous rainfall in Qianxi,Guizhou, China

Landslides - On July 10, 2020, a catastrophic landslide with a slope angle of only 8° occurred in the red-bed series strata in Qianxi, Guizhou, southwestern China, due to prolonged rainfall,...     

Risk assessment and mitigation for the Hongshiyan landslide dam triggered by the 2014 Ludian earthquake in Yunnan,China

An Ms 6.5 earthquake shocked the Ludian County, Yunnan Province, China, on 3 August 2014 and triggered the Hongshiyan landslide dam. The dam, with a height of 83 m and a lake capacity of 260?×?10⁶ m³, threatened more than 10,000 people. A unique feature of this landslide dam was that it formed between a man-made dam and a hydropower plant. An existing drainage tunnel connecting the lake and the hydropower plant became a natural drainage conduit for the landslide dam, which played an important role in the mitigation of the landslide dam risks. This paper reports a quantitative risk assessment for the Hongshiyan landslide dam considering both engineering and non-engineering risk mitigation measures. The risk assessment is divided into three stages according to the implementation of two engineering measures: construction of a diversion channel and excavation of a branch drainage tunnel. The dam breaching hydrographs, flood zones, population at risk, and likely fatalities in each of the three stages are analysed. The optimum evacuation strategy in each stage is also studied based on the principle of minimum total consequence. It is found that the diversion channel decreases the dam breaching peak discharge and the associated risks significantly. The branch drainage tunnel prevent the landslide dam from overtopping failure in non-flooded period; however, the landslide dam may fail by overtopping in a future flood if the inflow rate is larger than the outflow rate through the drainage tunnels, resulting in serious losses of lives and properties. The dam breaching risks in all the three stages could be largely reduced by the optimal evacuation decision, which shows that timely evacuation is vital to save life and properties. The study provides a scientific basis for decision making in landslide dam risk management.     

Deep-seated gravitational slope deformations triggered by extreme rainfall and agricultural practices (eastern Michoacan,Mexico)

The study of deep-seated gravitational slope deformations (DSGSD) in Mexico is scarce; therefore, their localization and causes are highly overlooked. The present paper examines the characterization of the DSGSD of Jungapeo and Las Pilas in eastern Michoacan state, currently active and endangering their inhabitants. An integrated study, including detailed lithology, morpho-structural inventories, analysis of land use, and pluviometric regime, was performed and complemented with differential global positioning system monitoring networks. Both landslides developed over highly weathered volcano-sedimentary rocks. On the one hand, the Jungapeo landslide has an estimated volume of 990,455 m³ with steady decreasing velocity rates from 41 to 15 cm/month in the first monitoring period to 13–3 cm/month in the last one. On the other hand, the Las Pilas landslide estimated volume is about 1,082,467 m³ with a stable velocity rate of 1.3 to 0.1 cm/month. Despite the multi-storeyed style of activity, two behaviors of instability were distinguished: slow deformation and secondary landslide stages. The conditioning factors for slow deformation in both DSGSD are the combination of weathered lithology with clay- and sand-rich content, and the shift toward intensive monoculture. The triggering factor is related to excess water produced by an inefficient flood-irrigation system that also generates an atypical acceleration behavior in both landslides during the dry season. The DSGSD activity thus predisposes the generation of tension cracks and secondary scarps from which the collateral landslides are triggered by atypical rainfall, such as that of 2010.     

The characteristics and failure mechanism of the largest landslide triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake, May 12, 2008, China

Strong earthquakes are among the prime triggering factors of landslides. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M _w = 7.9) triggered tens of thousands of landslides. Among them, the Daguangbao landslide is the largest one, which covered an area of 7.8 km² with a maximum width of 2.2 km and an estimated volume of 7.5 × 10⁸ m³. The landslide is located on the hanging wall of the seismogenic fault, the Yingxiu–Beichuan fault in Anxian town, Sichuan Province. The sliding mass travelled about 4.5 km and blocked the Huangdongzi valley, forming a landslide dam nearly 600 m high. Compared to other coseismic landslides in the study area, the Daguangbao landslide attained phenomenal kinetic energy, intense cracking, and deformation, exposing a 1-km long head scarp in the rear of the landslide. Based on the field investigation, we conclude that the occurrence of the landslide is controlled mainly by the seismic, terrain, and geological factors. The special location of the landslide and the possible topographic amplification of ground motions due to the terrain features governed the landslide failure. The effects of earthquakes on the stability of slopes were considered in two aspects: First, the ground shaking may reduce the frictional strength of the substrate by shattering of rock mass. Second, the seismic acceleration may result in short-lived and episodic changes of the normal (tensile) and shear stresses in the hillshopes during earthquakes. According to the failure mechanism, the dynamic process of the landslide might contain four stages: (a) the cracking of rock mass in the rear of the slope mainly due to the tensile stress generated by the ground shaking; (b) the shattering of the substrate due to the ground shaking, which reduced the frictional strength of the substrate; (c) the shearing failure of the toe of the landslide due to the large shear stress caused by the landslide gravity; and (d) the deposition stage.