Near-Earth Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 23 (1996 – 2009): Catalog and Summary of Properties

In a previous study (Cane and Richardson, J. Geophys. Res. 108(A4), SSH6-1, 2003), we investigated the occurrence of interplanetary coronal mass ejections in the near-Earth solar wind during 1996 – 2002, corresponding to the increasing and maximum phases of solar cycle 23, and provided a “comprehensive” catalog of these events. In this paper, we present a revised and updated catalog of the ≈300 near-Earth ICMEs in 1996 – 2009, encompassing the complete cycle 23, and summarize their basic properties and geomagnetic effects. In particular, solar wind composition and charge state observations are now considered when identifying the ICMEs. In general, these additional data confirm the earlier identifications based predominantly on other solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters. However, the boundaries of ICME-like plasma based on charge state/composition data may deviate significantly from those based on conventional plasma/magnetic field parameters. Furthermore, the much studied “magnetic clouds”, with flux-rope-like magnetic field configurations, may form just a substructure of the total ICME interval.     

A New Forecasting Index for Solar Wind Velocity Based on EIT 284 Å Observations

Various solar wind forecasting methods have been developed during the past decade, such as the Wang?–?Sheeley model and the Hakamada?–?Akasofu?–?Fry Version 2 (HAFv2) model. Also, considerable correlation has been found between the solar wind speed v and the coronal hole (CH) area A _M on the visible side of the Sun, showing quantitative improvement of forecasting accuracy in low CME activity periods (e.g., Vr?nak, Temmer, and Veronig, Solar Phys. 240, 315, 2007a). Properties of lower layers of the solar atmosphere are good indications of the subsequent interplanetary and geomagnetic activities. We analyze the SOHO/EIT 284 Å images and construct a new forecasting factor (Pch) from the brightness of the solar EUV emission, and a good correlation is found between the Pch factor and the 3-day-lag solar wind velocity (v) probed by the ACE spacecraft. The main difference between the Pch and A _M factor is that Pch does not depend on the CH-boundary estimate and can reflect both the area and brightness of CH. A simple method of forecasting the solar wind speed near Earth in low CME activity periods is presented. Between Pch and v from 21 November until 26 December 2003, the linear correlation coefficient is R=0.89. For comparison we also analyze the data in the same period (DOY 25?–?125, 2005) as Vr?nak, Temmer, and Veronig (Solar Phys. 240, 315, 2007a), who used the CH areas A _M for predicting the solar wind parameters. In this period the correlation coefficient between Pch and v is R=0.70, whereas for A _M and v the correlation coefficient is R=0.62. The average relative difference between the calculated and the observed values is $\overline{|\delta|}\approx 12.15\%Various solar wind forecasting methods have been developed during the past decade, such as the Wang – Sheeley model and the Hakamada – Akasofu – Fry Version 2 (HAFv2) model. Also, considerable correlation has been found between the solar wind speed v and the coronal hole (CH) area A _M on the visible side of the Sun, showing quantitative improvement of forecasting accuracy in low CME activity periods (e.g., Vršnak, Temmer, and Veronig, Solar Phys. 240, 315, 2007a). Properties of lower layers of the solar atmosphere are good indications of the subsequent interplanetary and geomagnetic activities. We analyze the SOHO/EIT 284 ? images and construct a new forecasting factor (Pch) from the brightness of the solar EUV emission, and a good correlation is found between the Pch factor and the 3-day-lag solar wind velocity (v) probed by the ACE spacecraft. The main difference between the Pch and A _M factor is that Pch does not depend on the CH-boundary estimate and can reflect both the area and brightness of CH. A simple method of forecasting the solar wind speed near Earth in low CME activity periods is presented. Between Pch and v from 21 November until 26 December 2003, the linear correlation coefficient is R=0.89. For comparison we also analyze the data in the same period (DOY 25 – 125, 2005) as Vršnak, Temmer, and Veronig (Solar Phys. 240, 315, 2007a), who used the CH areas A _M for predicting the solar wind parameters. In this period the correlation coefficient between Pch and v is R=0.70, whereas for A _M and v the correlation coefficient is R=0.62. The average relative difference between the calculated and the observed values is . Furthermore, for the ten peaks during the analysis period, Pch and v show a correlation coefficient of R=0.78, and the average relative difference between the calculated and the observed peak values is . Moreover, the Pch factor can eliminate personal bias in the forecasting process, which existed in the method using CH area as input parameter, because CH area depends on the CH-boundary estimate but Pch does not. Until now the CH-boundary could not be easily determined since no quantitative criteria can be used to precisely locate CHs from observations, which led to differences in forecasting accuracy.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">In Situ</Emphasis> Signatures of Interchange Reconnection between Magnetic Clouds and Open Magnetic Fields: A Mechanism for the Erosion of Polar Coronal Holes?

We outline a method to determine the direction of solar open flux transport that results from the opening of magnetic clouds (MCs) by interchange reconnection at the Sun based solely on in-situ observations. This method uses established findings about i) the locations and magnetic polarities of emerging MC footpoints, ii) the hemispheric dependence of the helicity of MCs, and iii) the occurrence of interchange reconnection at the Sun being signaled by uni-directional suprathermal electrons inside MCs. Combining those observational facts in a statistical analysis of MCs during solar cycle 23 (period 1995 – 2007), we show that the time of disappearance of the northern polar coronal hole (1998 – 1999), permeated by an outward-pointing magnetic field, is associated with a peak in the number of MCs originating from the northern hemisphere and connected to the Sun by outward-pointing magnetic field lines. A similar peak is observed in the number of MCs originating from the southern hemisphere and connected to the Sun by inward-pointing magnetic field lines. This pattern is interpreted as the result of interchange reconnection occurring between MCs and the open field lines of nearby polar coronal holes. This reconnection process closes down polar coronal hole open field lines and transports these open field lines equatorward, thus contributing to the global coronal magnetic field reversal process. These results will be further constrainable with the rising phase of solar cycle 24.     

Dynamic and Thermal Disappearance of Prominences and Their Geoeffectiveness

This paper is a qualitative study of 42 events of solar filament/prominence sudden disappearances (“disparitions brusques”; henceforth DBs) around two solar minima, 1985 – 1986 and 1994. The studied events were classified as 17 thermal and 25 dynamic disappearances. Associated events, i.e. coronal mass ejections (CMEs), type II bursts, evolution of nearby coronal holes, as well as solar wind speed, and geomagnetic disturbances are discussed. We have found that about 50% of the thermal DBs with adjacent (within 15° from the DB) coronal holes were associated with CMEs within a selected time window. All the studied thermal disappearances with adjacent coronal holes or accompanied by dynamic disappearances were associated with weak and medium geomagnetic storms. Also, nearly 64% of dynamic DBs were associated with CMEs. Ten (40%) dynamic disappearances were associated with intense geomagnetic storms, even when no CMEs was reported, six (24%) dynamic disappearances corresponded to extreme storms, and five (20%) corresponded to medium geomagnetic storms. The extreme geomagnetic storms appeared to be related to combined events, involving dynamic disappearances with adjacent coronal holes or including thermal disappearances. Furthermore, the geomagnetic activity (Dst index) increased if the source was close to the central meridian (±30°). The highest interplanetary magnetic field (B), longest duration, lowest southward direction B _z component, and lowest Dst were highly correlated for all studied events. The Sun – Earth transit time computed from the starting time of the sudden disappearance and the time its effect was measured at Earth was about 4.3 days and was mainly well correlated with the solar wind speed measured in situ (daily value).     

Streamer Belt and Chains as the Main Sources of Quasi-Stationary Slow Solar Wind

Synoptic maps of white-light coronal brightness from SOHO/LASCO C2 and distributions of solar wind velocity obtained from interplanetary scintillation are studied. Regions with velocity V≈300 – 450 km s⁻¹ and increased density N>10 cm⁻³, typical of the “slow” solar wind originating from the belt and chains of streamers, are shown to exist at Earth’s orbit, between the fast solar wind flows (with a maximum velocity V _max≈450 – 800 km s⁻¹). The belt and chains of streamers are the main sources of the “slow” solar wind. As the sources of “slow” solar wind, the contribution from the chains of streamers may be comparable to that from the streamer belt.     

Radial Evolution of Well-Observed Slow CMEs in the Distance Range 2 – 30 <Emphasis Type="Italic">R</Emphasis><Subscript>⊙</Subscript>

We performed a detailed analysis of 27 slow coronal mass ejections (CMEs) whose heights were measured in at least 30 coronagraphic images and were characterized by a high quality index (≥4). Our primary aim was to study the radial evolution of these CMEs and their properties in the range 2 – 30 solar radii. The instantaneous speeds of CMEs were calculated by using successive height – time data pairs. The obtained speed – distance profiles [v(R)] are fitted by a power law v = a(R−b) ^c . The power-law indices are found to be in the ranges a=30 – 386, b=1.95 – 3.92, and c=0.03 – 0.79. The power-law exponent c is found to be larger for slower and narrower CMEs. With the exception of two events that had approximately constant velocity, all events were accelerating. The majority of accelerating events shows a v(R) profile very similar to the solar-wind profile deduced by Sheeley et al. (Astrophys. J. 484, 472, 1997). This indicates that the dynamics of most slow CMEs are dominated by the solar wind drag.     

Periodic Appearance of Coronal Holes and the Related Variation of Solar Wind Parameters

We compared the variability of coronal hole (CH) areas (determined from daily GOES/SXI images) with solar wind (daily ACE data) and geomagnetic parameters for the time span 25 January 2005 until 11 September 2005 (late declining phase of solar cycle 23). Applying wavelet spectral analysis, a clear 9-day period is found in the CH time series. The GOES/SXI image sequence suggests that this periodic variation is caused by a mutual triangular distribution of CHs ∼120° apart in longitude. From solar wind parameters a 9-day periodicity was obtained as well, simultaneously with the 9-day period in the CH area time series. These findings provide strong evidence that the 9-day period in solar wind parameters, showing up as higher harmonic of the solar rotation frequency, is caused by the “periodic” longitudinal distribution of CHs on the Sun recurring for several solar rotations. The shape of the wavelet spectrum from the Dst index matches only weakly with that from the CH areas and is more similar to the wavelet spectrum of the solar wind magnetic field magnitude. The distinct 9-day period does not show up in sunspot group areas which gives further evidence that the solar wind modulation is strongly related to CH areas but not to active region complexes. The wavelet power spectra for the whole ACE data range (∼1998 – 2006) suggest that the 9-day period is not a singular phenomenon occurring only during a specific time range close to solar minimum but is occasionally also present during the maximum and decay phase of solar cycle 23. The main periods correspond to the solar rotation (27^d) as well as to the second (13.5^d) and third (9^d) harmonic. Electronic Supplementary Material The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Enhancement of Solar Energetic Particles During a Shock – Magnetic Cloud Interacting Complex Structure

The behavior of solar energetic particles (SEPs) in a shock – magnetic cloud interacting complex structure observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft on 5 November 2001 is analyzed. A strong shock causing magnetic field strength and solar wind speed increases of about 41 nT and 300 km s⁻¹, respectively, propagated within a preceding magnetic cloud (MC). It is found that an extraordinary SEP enhancement appeared at the high-energy (≥10 MeV) proton intensities and extended over and only over the entire period of the shock – MC structure passing through the spacecraft. Such SEP behavior is much different from the usual picture that the SEPs are depressed in MCs. The comparison of this event with other top SEP events of solar cycle 23 (2000 Bastille Day and 2003 Halloween events) shows that such an enhancement resulted from the effects of the shock – MC complex structure leading to the highest ≥10 MeV proton intensity of solar cycle 23. Our analysis suggests that the relatively isolated magnetic field configuration of MCs combined with an embedded strong shock could significantly enhance the SEP intensity; SEPs are accelerated by the shock and confined into the MC. Further, we find that the SEP enhancement at lower energies happened not only within the shock – MC structure but also after it, probably owing to the presence of a following MC-like structure. This is consistent with the picture that SEP fluxes could be enhanced in the magnetic topology between two MCs, which was proposed based on numerical simulations by Kallenrode and Cliver (Proc. 27th ICRC 8, 3318, 2001b).     

Gnevyshev Peaks and Gaps for Coronal Mass Ejections of Different Widths Originating in Different Solar Position Angles

The sunspot number series at the peak of sunspot activity often has two or three peaks (Gnevyshev peaks; Gnevyshev, Solar Phys. 1, 107, 1967; Solar Phys. 51, 175, 1977). The sunspot group number (SGN) data were examined for 1997 – 2003 (part of cycle 23) and compared with data for coronal mass ejection (CME) events. It was noticed that they exhibited mostly two Gnevyshev peaks in each of the four latitude belts 0° – 10°, 10° – 20°, 20 ° – 30°, and > 30°, in both N (northern) and S (southern) solar hemispheres. The SGN were confined to within latitudes ± 50° around the Equator, mostly around ± 35°, and seemed to occur later in lower latitudes, indicating possible latitudinal migration as in the Maunder butterfly diagrams. In CMEs, less energetic CMEs (of widths < 71°) showed prominent Gnevyshev peaks during sunspot maximum years in almost all latitude belts, including near the poles. The CME activity lasted longer than the SGN activity. However, the CME peaks did not match the SGN peaks and were almost simultaneous at different latitudes, indicating no latitudinal migration. In energetic CMEs including halo CMEs, the Gnevyshev peaks were obscure and ill-defined. The solar polar magnetic fields show polarity reversal during sunspot maximum years, first at the North Pole and, a few months later, at the South Pole. However, the CME peaks and gaps did not match with the magnetic field reversal times, preceding them by several months, rendering any cause – effect relationship doubtful.     

Coronal Holes and Solar Wind High-Speed Streams: I. Forecasting the Solar Wind Parameters

We analyze the relationship between the coronal hole (CH) area/position and physical characteristics of the associated corotating high-speed stream (HSS) in the solar wind at 1 AU. For the analysis we utilize the data in the period DOY 25 – 125 of 2005, characterized by a very low coronal mass ejection (CME) activity. Distinct correlations between the daily averaged CH parameters and the solar wind characteristics are found, which allows us to forecast the solar wind velocity v, proton temperature T, proton density n, and magnetic field strength B, several days in advance in periods of low CME activity. The forecast is based on monitoring fractional areas A, covered by CHs in the meridional slices embracing the central meridian distance ranges [−40°,−20°], [−10°,10°], and [20°,40°]. On average, the peaks in the daily values of n, B, T, and v appear delayed by 1, 2, 3, and 4 days, respectively, after the area A attains its maximum in the central-meridian slice. The peak values of the solar wind parameters are correlated to the peak values of A, which provides also forecasting of the peak values of n, B, T, and v. The most accurate prediction can be obtained for the solar wind velocity, for which the average relative difference between the calculated and the observed peak values amounts to %. The forecast reliability is somewhat lower in the case of T, B, and n ( , 30, and 40%, respectively). The space weather implications are discussed, including the perspectives for advancing the real-time calculation of the Sun – Earth transit times of coronal mass ejections and interplanetary shocks, by including more realistic real-time estimates of the solar wind characteristics.     

The “Floor” in the Interplanetary Magnetic Field: Estimation on the Basis of Relative Duration of ICME Observations in Solar Wind During 1976 – 2000

Measurement of the floor in the interplanetary magnetic field and estimation of the time-invariant open magnetic flux of the Sun require knowledge of closed magnetic flux carried away by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In contrast with previous papers, we do not use global solar parameters to estimate such values: instead we identify different large-scale types of solar wind for the 1976 – 2000 interval to obtain the fraction of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs). By calculating the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field B averaged over two Carrington rotations, the floor of the magnetic field can be estimated from the B value at a solar cycle minimum when the number of ICMEs is minimal. We find a value of 4.65±0.6 nT, in good agreement with previous results.     

Coronal Field Opens at Lower Height During the Solar Cycles 22 and 23 Minimum Periods: IMF Comparison Suggests the Source Surface Should Be Lowered

The solar cycle 23 minimum period has been characterized by a weaker solar and interplanetary magnetic field. This provides an ideal time to study how the strength of the photospheric field affects the interplanetary magnetic flux and, in particular, how much the observed interplanetary fields of different cycle minima can be understood simply from differences in the areas of the coronal holes, as opposed to differences in the surface fields within them. In this study, we invoke smaller source surface radii in the potential-field source-surface (PFSS) model to construct a consistent picture of the observed coronal holes and the near-Earth interplanetary field strength as well as polarity measurements for the cycles 23 and 22 minimum periods. Although the source surface value of 2.5 R _⊙ is typically used in PFSS applications, earlier studies have shown that using smaller source surface heights generates results that better match observations during low solar activity periods. We use photospheric field synoptic maps from Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) and find that the values of ≈ 1.9 R _⊙ and ≈ 1.8 R _⊙ for the cycles 22 and 23 minimum periods, respectively, produce the best results. The larger coronal holes obtained for the smaller source surface radius of cycle 23 somewhat offsets the interplanetary consequences of the lower magnetic field at their photospheric footpoints. For comparison, we also use observations from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and find that the source surface radius of ≈ 1.5 R _⊙ produces better results for cycle 23, rather than ≈ 1.8 R _⊙ as suggested from MWO observations. Despite this difference, our results obtained from MWO and MDI observations show a qualitative consistency regarding the origins of the interplanetary field and suggest that users of PFSS models may want to consider using these smaller values for their source surface heights as long as the solar activity is low.     

A Revisit of the Masuda Flare

We revisit the flare that occurred on 13 January 1992, which is now universally termed the “Masuda flare”. The new analysis is motivated not just by its uniqueness despite the increasing number of coronal observations in hard X-rays, but also by the improvement of Yohkoh hard X-ray image processing, which was achieved after the intensive investigations on this celebrated event. Using an uncertainty analysis, we show that the hard X-ray coronal source is located closer to the soft X-ray loop by about 5000 km (or 7 arcsec) in the re-calibrated Hard X-ray Telescope (HXT) images than in the original ones. Specifically, the centroid of the M1-band (23 – 33 keV) coronal source is above the maximum brightness of the Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) loop by 5000±1000 km (9600 km in the original data) and above the apex of the SXT loop represented by the 30% brightness contour by 2000±1000 km (∼ 7000 km in the original data). The change is obviously significant, because most coronal sources are above the thermal loop by less than 6 arcsec. We suggest that this change may account for the discrepancy in the literature, i.e., the spectrum of the coronal emission was reported to be extremely hard below ∼ 20 keV in the pre-calibration investigations, whereas it was reported to be considerably softer in the literature after the re-calibration done by Sato, Kosugi, and Makishima (Pub. Astron. Soc. Japan 51, 127, 1999). Still, the coronal spectrum is flatter at lower energies than at higher energies, due to the lack of a similar, co-spatial source in the L-band (14 – 23 keV), for which a convincing explanation is absent.     

Latitude Dependence of the “Gnevyshev” Peaks and Gaps

The occurrence of double peaks near the maximum of sunspot activity was first emphasized by Gnevyshev (Solar Phys. 1, 107, 1967) for the peak years of solar cycle 19 (1954 – 1964). In the present analysis, it is shown that double peaks in sunspot numbers were clearly visible in solar latitudes 10 – 30° N but almost absent in the southern latitudes, where some single peaks were observed out of phase by several months from any of the peaks in the northern latitudes. The spacing between the double peaks increased from higher to lower northern latitudes, hinting at latitudinal migration. In the next cycle 20 (1965 – 1976), which was of about half the strength of cycle 19, no clear-cut double peaks were seen, and the prominent peak in the early part of 1967 in the northern latitudes was seen a few months later in the southern latitudes. A direct relationship of Gnevyshev peaks with changes in the solar polar magnetic fields seems to be dubious. The commencements do not match.     

Short-Term Periodicities in Sunspot Activity and Flare Index Data during Solar Cycle 23

The short-term periodicities in sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, and flare index data are investigated in detail using the Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) for the full disk of the Sun separately over the rising, the maximum, and the declining portions of solar cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). While sunspot numbers and areas show several significant periodicities in a wide range between 23.1 and 36.4 days, the flare index data do not exhibit any significant periodicity. The earlier conclusion of Pap, Tobiska, and Bouwer (1990, Solar Phys. 129, 165) and Kane (2003, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 65, 1169), that the 27-day periodicity is more pronounced in the declining portion of a solar cycle than in the rising and maximum ones, seems to be true for sunspot numbers and sunspot area data analyzed here during solar cycle 23.     

Search for Rapid Changes in the Visible-Light Corona during the 21?June 2001 Total Solar Eclipse

Some 8000 images obtained with the Solar Eclipse Coronal Imaging System (SECIS) fast-frame CCD camera instrument located at Lusaka, Zambia, during the total eclipse of 21 June 2001 have been analysed to search for short-period oscillations in intensity that could be a signature of solar coronal heating mechanisms by MHD wave dissipation. Images were taken in white-light and Fe xiv green-line (5303 ?) channels over 205 seconds (frame rate 39 s⁻¹), approximately the length of eclipse totality at this location, with a pixel size of four arcseconds square. The data are of considerably better quality than those that we obtained during the 11 August 1999 total eclipse (Rudawy et al.: Astron. Astrophys. 416, 1179, 2004), in that the images are much better exposed and enhancements in the drive system of the heliostat used gave a much improved image stability. Classical Fourier and wavelet techniques have been used to analyse the emission at 29 518 locations, of which 10 714 had emission at reasonably high levels, searching for periodic fluctuations with periods in the range 0.1 – 17 seconds (frequencies 0.06 – 10 Hz). While a number of possible periodicities were apparent in the wavelet analysis, none of the spatially and time-limited periodicities in the local brightness curves was found to be physically important. This implies that the pervasive Alfvén wave-like phenomena (Tomczyk et al.: Science 317, 1192, 2007) using polarimetric observations with the Coronal Multi-Channel Polarimeter (CoMP) instrument do not give rise to significant oscillatory intensity fluctuations.     

Examining Periodic Solar-Wind Density Structures Observed in the SECCHI <Emphasis Type="Italic">Heliospheric Imagers</Emphasis>

We present an analysis of small-scale, periodic, solar-wind density enhancements (length scales as small as ≈ 1000 Mm) observed in images from the Heliospheric Imager (HI) aboard STEREO-A. We discuss their possible relationship to periodic fluctuations of the proton density that have been identified at 1 AU using in-situ plasma measurements. Specifically, Viall, Kepko, and Spence (J. Geophys. Res. 113, A07101, 2008) examined 11 years of in-situ solar-wind density measurements at 1 AU and demonstrated that not only turbulent structures, but also nonturbulent, periodic density structures exist in the solar wind with scale sizes of hundreds to one thousand Mm. In a subsequent paper, Viall, Spence, and Kasper (Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L23102, 2009) analyzed the α-to-proton solar-wind abundance ratio measured during one such event of periodic density structures, demonstrating that the plasma behavior was highly suggestive that either temporally or spatially varying coronal source plasma created those density structures. Large periodic density structures observed at 1 AU, which were generated in the corona, can be observable in coronal and heliospheric white-light images if they possess sufficiently high density contrast. Indeed, we identify such periodic density structures as they enter the HI field of view and follow them as they advect with the solar wind through the images. The smaller, periodic density structures that we identify in the images are comparable in size to the larger structures analyzed in-situ at 1 AU, yielding further evidence that periodic density enhancements are a consequence of coronal activity as the solar wind is formed.     

Coronal Holes and Solar Wind High-Speed Streams: II. Forecasting the Geomagnetic Effects

We present a simple method of forecasting the geomagnetic storms caused by high-speed streams (HSSs) in the solar wind. The method is based on the empirical correlation between the coronal hole area/position and the value of the Dst index, which is established in a period of low interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) activity. On average, the highest geomagnetic activity, i.e., the minimum in Dst, occurs four days after a low-latitude coronal hole (CH) crosses the central meridian. The amplitude of the Dst dip is correlated with the CH area and depends on the magnetic polarity of the CH due to the Russell – McPherron effect. The Dst variation may be predicted by employing the expression Dst(t)=(−65±25×cos λ)[A(t ^*)]^0.5, where A(t ^*) is the fractional CH area measured in the central-meridian slice [−10°,10°] of the solar disc, λ is the ecliptic longitude of the Earth, ± stands for positive/negative CH polarity, and t−t ^*=4 days. In periods of low ICME activity, the proposed expression provides forecasting of the amplitude of the HSS-associated Dst dip to an accuracy of ≈30%. However, the time of occurrence of the Dst minimum cannot be predicted to better than ±2 days, and consequently, the overall mean relative difference between the observed and calculated daily values of Dst ranges around 50%.     

Magnetic Flux Imbalance of the Solar and Heliospheric Magnetic Fields

A comparative analysis of solar and heliospheric magnetic fields in terms of their cumulative sums reveals cyclic and long-term changes that appear as a magnetic flux imbalance and alternations of dominant magnetic polarities. The global magnetic flux imbalance of the Sun manifests itself in the solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) signal. The north – south asymmetry of solar activity and the quadrupole mode of the solar magnetic field contribute the most to the observed magnetic flux imbalance. The polarity asymmetry exhibits the Hale magnetic cycle in both the radial and azimuthal components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Analysis of the cumulative sums of the IMF components clearly reveals cyclic changes in the IMF geometry. The accumulated deviations in the IMF spiral angle from its nominal value also demonstrate long-term changes resulting from a slow increase of the solar wind speed over 1965 – 2006. A predominance of the positive IMF B _z with a significant linear trend in its cumulative signal is interpreted as a manifestation of the relic magnetic field of the Sun. Long-term changes in the IMF B _z are revealed. They demonstrate decadal changes owing to the 11/22-year solar cycle. Long-duration time intervals with a dominant negative B _z component were found in temporal patterns of the cumulative sum of the IMF B _z .     

Radial variation of differential rotation in the solar electron corona

Long-lived brightness structures in the solar electron corona persist over many solar rotation periods and permit an observational determination of coronal magnetic tracer rotation as a function of latitude and height in the solar atmosphere. For observations over 1964–1976 spanning solar cycle 20, we compare the latitude dependence of rotation at two heights in the corona. Comparison of rotation rates from East and West limbs and from independent computational procedures is used to estimate uncertainty. Time-averaged rotation rates based on three methods of analysis demonstrate that, on average, coronal differential rotation decreases with height from 1.125 to 1.5 R _S. The observed radial variation of differential rotation implies a scale height of approximately 0.7 R _S for coronal differential rotation.Model calculations for a simple MHD loop show that magnetic connections between high and low latitudes may produce the observed radial variations of magnetic tracer rotation. If the observed tracer rotation represents the rotation of open magnetic field lines as well as that of closed loops, the small scale height for differential rotation suggests that the rotation of solar magnetic fields at the base of the solar wind may be only weakly latitude dependent. If, instead, closed loops account completely for the radial gradients of rotation, outward extrapolation of electron coronal rotation may not describe magnetic field rotation at the solar wind source. Inward extrapolations of observed rotation rates suggest that magnetic field and plasma are coupled a few hundredths of a solar radius beneath the photosphere.