Teleconnections associated with Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation

The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) has strong convective activity centers in Indian (I), Western North Pacific (WNP), and North American (NA) summer monsoon (SM) regions. The present study attempts to reveal BSISO teleconnection patterns associated with these dominant intraseasonal variability centers. During the active phase of ISM, a zonally elongated band of enhanced convection extends from India via the Bay of Bengal and Philippine Sea to tropical central Pacific with suppressed convection over the eastern Pacific near Mexico. The corresponding extratropical circulation anomalies occur along the waveguides generated by the North African-Asian jet and North Atlantic-North European jet. When the tropical convection strengthens over the WNPSM sector, a distinct great circle-like Rossby wave train emanates from the WNP to the western coast of United States (US) with an eastward shift of enhanced meridional circulation. In the active phase of NASM, large anticyclonic anomalies anchor over the western coast of US and eastern Canada and the global teleconnection pattern is similar to that during a break phase of the ISM. Examination of the evolution of the BSISO teleconnection reveals quasi-stationary patterns with preferred centers of teleconnection located at Europe, Russia, central Asia, East Asia, western US, and eastern US and Canada, respectively. Most centers are embedded in the waveguide along the westerly jet stream, but the centers at Europe and Russia occur to the north of the jet-induced waveguide. Eastward propagation of the ISO teleconnection is evident over the Pacific-North America sector. The rainfall anomalies over the elongated band near the monsoon domain over the Indo-western Pacific sector have an opposite tendency with that over the central and southern China, Mexico and southern US, providing a source of intraseasonal predictability to extratropical regions. The BSISO teleconnection along and to the north of the subtropical jet provides a good indication of the surface sir temperature anomalies in the NH extratropics.     

Comparison of intra-seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon between two versions of NCEP coupled models

The real-time forecasting of monsoon activity over India on extended range time scale (about 3 weeks) is analyzed for the monsoon season of 2012 during June to September (JJAS) by using the outputs from latest (CFSv2 [Climate Forecast System version 2]) and previous version (CFSv1 [Climate Forecast System version 1]) of NCEP coupled modeling system. The skill of monsoon rainfall forecast is found to be much better in CFSv2 than CFSv1. For the country as a whole the correlation coefficient (CC) between weekly observed and forecast rainfall departure was found to be statistically significant (99 % level) at least for 2 weeks (up to 18 days) and also having positive CC during week 3 (days 19–25) in CFSv2. The other skill scores like the mean absolute error (MAE) and the root mean square error (RMSE) also had better performance in CFSv2 compared to that of CFSv1. Over the four homogeneous regions of India the forecast skill is found to be better in CFSv2 with almost all four regions with CC significant at 95 % level up to 2 weeks, whereas the CFSv1 forecast had significant CC only over northwest India during week 1 (days 5–11) forecast. The improvement in CFSv2 was very prominent over central India and northwest India compared to other two regions. On the meteorological subdivision level (India is divided into 36 meteorological subdivisions) the percentage of correct category forecast was found to be much higher than the climatology normal forecast in CFSv2 as well as in CFSv1, with CFSv2 being 8–10 % higher in the category of correct to partially correct (one category out) forecast compared to that in CFSv1. Thus, it is concluded that the latest version of CFS coupled model has higher skill in predicting Indian monsoon rainfall on extended range time scale up to about 25 days.     

Real-time multivariate indices for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region

The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is one of the most prominent sources of short-term climate variability in the global monsoon system. Compared with the related Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) it is more complex in nature, with prominent northward propagation and variability extending much further from the equator. In order to facilitate detection, monitoring and prediction of the BSISO we suggest two real-time indices: BSISO1 and BSISO2, based on multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) analysis of daily anomalies of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and zonal wind at 850 hPa (U850) in the region 10°S–40°N, 40°–160°E, for the extended boreal summer (May–October) season over the 30-year period 1981–2010. BSISO1 is defined by the first two principal components (PCs) of the MV-EOF analysis, which together represent the canonical northward propagating variability that often occurs in conjunction with the eastward MJO with quasi-oscillating periods of 30–60 days. BSISO2 is defined by the third and fourth PCs, which together mainly capture the northward/northwestward propagating variability with periods of 10–30 days during primarily the pre-monsoon and monsoon-onset season. The BSISO1 circulation cells are more Rossby wave like with a northwest to southeast slope, whereas the circulation associated with BSISO2 is more elongated and front-like with a southwest to northeast slope. BSISO2 is shown to modulate the timing of the onset of Indian and South China Sea monsoons. Together, the two BSISO indices are capable of describing a large fraction of the total intraseasonal variability in the ASM region, and better represent the northward and northwestward propagation than the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index of Wheeler and Hendon.     

Mechanisms of low frequency intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon

Summary This work deals with idealized modelling experiments designed to understand the dynamical evolution of low frequency intraseasonal monsoonal oscillations that result from interactions between the large scale monsoon Reverse Hadley Cell (RHC) and moist convective processes. The monsoon differential heating, which primarily determines the low-level convergence of the large-scale monsoon flow, is found to play a decisive role in affecting the northward progression of the monsoonal modes. A strong north-south differential heating leads to a robust generation and steady maintenance of northward propagating monsoonal oscillations. A weaker land-ocean thermal contrast leads to feeble low frequency monsoonal modes that have relatively longer periods in the 30–50 day band. This increase in the period of the monsoonal oscillations due to weak north-south thermal contrast is in good agreement with the observational findings of Yasunari (1980) and Kasture and Keshavamurty (1987). It is speculated that such an increase in the oscillatory period may be an outcome from an elongation in the meridional scale of the transient Hadley type cells which act as resonating cavities for the monsoonal modes.A Mobile Wave CISK (MWC) form of interaction between the large scale monsoon and the transient circulations associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is projected as a viable physical mechanism for the northward movement of low frequency modes. It is demonstrated that the effective low level convergence, following such an interaction, tends to shift northward relative to the site of interaction. This enables the heating perturbations to be displaced northward which in turn causes the secondary circulations and wind perturbations to follow. The essential criterion for the occurrence of a prolonged northward propagation of the low frequency modes is that the heating perturbations should phase lead the wind perturbations at all times.An examination of the - interactions on the 30–50 day time scale reveals that the conversion from the transient divergent motions to rotational motions is quite intense (feeble) in the strong (weak) monsoon differential heating experiments. Because of the closer proximity to the monsoon heat source and also due to the latitudinal variation of earth's rotational effects, the - interactions tend to be more pronounced to the north of 15°N while they are less robust in the near equatorial latitudes.The regularity of the monsoonal modes is found to depend on the strength of the monsoon differential heating and also on the periodic behaviour of the equatorial intraseasonal oscillations. The monsoonal modes are quite steady and exhibit extreme regularity in the presence of a weak north-south differential heating provided the equatorial forcing due to the MJO varies in a periodic manner. This result supports the findings of Mehta and Krishnamurti (1988) who found greater regularity of the 30–50 day modes during bad monsoon years.The low frequency monsoonal modes are found to be quite sensitive to the moisture availability factor (m) and the vertical profile of heating used in the MWC parameterization. A small increase in the value of (m) is found to significantly intensify the amplitude of the monsoonal oscillations while there is no considerable shift in the spectral frequency within the 30–50 day band as such. The 30–50 day motions show significant enhancement, with a relatively sharp spectral peak around 45 days, when the vertical profile of MWC heating has a maximum in the lower troposphere. However an upward displacement of the heating maximum tends to weaken the low frequency oscillations.With 19 Figures     

Effects of intraseasonal oscillation on the anomalous East Asian summer monsoon during 1999

The 1999 East Asian summer monsoon was very unusual for its weak northward advance and remarkably anomalous climate conditions. The monsoonal southwesterly airflow and related rain belt in East Asia were blocked south of the Yangtze River Valley. The monsoonal airflow and major moisture transport conduct shifted eastward and turned northward to Japan from the tropical western Pacific rather than to East China from the South China Sea （SCS） as in normal years. Severe and prolonged drought occurred over extensive areas of North China and heavy precipitation in South China and Japan. The investigation on the possible intrinsic mechanisms related to such an anomalous monsoon year has shown that the unique behavior of intraseasonal oscillation may play an essential role during this process. During this year, the northward propagation of 30-60-day anomalous low-level cyclone/anticyclone collapsed in the region around 20°N and did not extend beyond the latitudes of the Yangtze River basin due to the barrier of strong cold air intrusion from the mid-latitudes. The southwesterly moisture flux on the northwestern flank of the anticyclonic moisture transport system in the western North Pacific, which was regulated by the northward shift of 30-60-day cyclonic/anticyclonic moisture transport, also did not reach the region north of 30°N as well. Under this circumstance, the weak northward advance of the monsoon westerlies and associated northward moisture transport could not arrive in North China and led to the severe droughts there in 1999. The SCS and South China were mostly affected by the airflow in the southern and northern flanks of the same 30-60-day cyclones or anticyclones, respectively, and thus controlled by the nearly reverse zonal wind and moisture convergent/divergent conditions. The rainfall in the SCS and South China showed out-of-phase oscillation through the transient local Hadley circulation, with the rainfall maximum occurring in the SCS （South China） when the 30-60-day anticyclone （cyclone） r     

Experimental 15-day-lead statistical forecast of intraseasonal summer monsoon rainfall over Eastern China

1996年长江中下游、2002年华中南部以及2006年华南沿海地区出现了显著洪涝,并均伴随强季节内降水活动。在30–60天和10–20天这两个时间尺度上,季节内降水异常均与亚洲季风区大气季节内振荡密切相关。本文选取亚洲季风区大气季节内振荡的关键要素作为预报因子,应用贝叶斯小波频段方案对季节内降水进行了预报时效为15天的延伸期预测。该方案对这三年的季节内降水中心的预测水平均较好,预测与观测的季节内降水相关系数均在0.6以上。     

Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon in NCEP coupled and uncoupled model

This study has identified probable factors that govern ISMR predictability. Furthermore, extensive analysis has been performed to evaluate factors leading to the predictability aspect of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) using uncoupled and coupled version of National Centers for Environmental Prediction Coupled Forecast System (CFS). It has been found that the coupled version (CFS) has outperformed the uncoupled version [Global Forecast System (GFS)] of the model in terms of prediction of rainfall over Indian land points. Even the spatial distribution of rainfall is much better represented in the CFS as compared to that of GFS. Even though these model skills are inadequate for the reliable forecasting of monsoon, it imparts the capacious knowledge about the model fidelity. The mean monsoon features and its evolution in terms of rainfall and large-scale circulation along with the zonal and meridional shear of winds, which govern the strength of the monsoon, are relatively closer to the observation in the CFS as compared to the GFS. Furthermore, sea surface temperature–rainfall relation is fairly realistic and intense in the coupled version of the model (CFS). It is found that the CFS is able to capture El Niño Southern Oscillation ISMR (ENSO-ISMR) teleconnections much strongly as compared to GFS; however, in the case of Indian Ocean Dipole ISMR teleconnections, GFS has the larger say. Coupled models have to be fine-tuned for the prediction of the transition of El Niño as well as the strength of the mature phase has to be improved. Thus, to sum up, CFS tends to have better predictive skill on account of following three factors: (a) better ability to replicate mean features, (b) comparatively better representation of air–sea interactions, and (c) much better portrayal of ENSO-ISMR teleconnections. This study clearly brings out that coupled model is the only way forward for improving the ISMR prediction skill. However, coupled model’s spurious representation of SST variability and mean model bias are detrimental in seasonal prediction.     

Prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India using the NCEP climate forecast system

The performance of a dynamical seasonal forecast system is evaluated for the prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region during June to September (JJAS). The evaluation is based on the National Centre for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) climate forecast system (CFS) initialized during March, April and May and integrated for a period of 9 months with a 15 ensemble members for 25 years period from 1981 to 2005. The CFS’s hindcast climatology during JJAS of March (lag-3), April (lag-2) and May (lag-1) initial conditions show mostly an identical pattern of rainfall similar to that of verification climatology with the rainfall maxima (one over the west-coast of India and the other over the head Bay of Bengal region) well simulated. The pattern correlation between verification and forecast climatology over the global tropics and Indian monsoon region (IMR) bounded by 50°E–110°E and 10°S–35°N shows significant correlation coefficient (CCs). The skill of simulation of broad scale monsoon circulation index (Webster and Yang; WY index) is quite good in the CFS with highly significant CC between the observed and predicted by the CFS from the March, April and May forecasts. High skill in forecasting El Nino event is also noted for the CFS March, April and May initial conditions, whereas, the skill of the simulation of Indian Ocean Dipole is poor and is basically due to the poor skill of prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Over the IMR the skill of monsoon rainfall forecast during JJAS as measured by the spatial Anomaly CC between forecast rainfall anomaly and the observed rainfall anomaly during 1991, 1994, 1997 and 1998 is high (almost of the order of 0.6), whereas, during the year 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987 and 1989 the ACC is only around 0.3. By using lower and upper tropospheric forecast winds during JJAS over the regions of significant CCs as predictors for the All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR; only the land stations of India during JJAS), the predicted mean AISMR with March, April and May initial conditions is found to be well correlated with actual AISMR and is found to provide skillful prediction. Thus, the calibrated CFS forecast could be used as a better tool for the real time prediction of AISMR.     

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations and seasonal Indian monsoon prediction in DEMETER coupled models

Even though multi-model prediction systems may have better skill in predicting the interannual variability (IAV) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM), the overall performance of the system is limited by the skill of individual models (single model ensembles). The DEMETER project aimed at seasonal-to-interannual prediction is not an exception to this case. The reasons for the poor skill of the DEMETER individual models in predicting the IAV of monsoon is examined in the context of the influence of external and internal components and the interaction between intraseasonal variability (ISV) and IAV. Recently it has been shown that the ISV influences the IAV through very long breaks (VLBs; breaks with duration of more than 10 days) by generating droughts. Further, all VLBs are associated with an eastward propagating Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the equatorial region, facilitated by air–sea interaction on intraseasonal timescales. This VLB-drought–MJO relationship is analyzed here in detail in the DEMETER models. Analyses indicate that the VLB-drought relationship is poorly captured by almost all the models. VLBs in observations are generated through air–sea interaction on intraseasonal time scale and the models’ inability to simulate VLB-drought relationship is shown to be linked to the models’ inability to represent the air–sea interaction on intraseasonal time scale. Identification of this particular deficiency of the models provides a direction for improvement of the model for monsoon prediction.     

Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Recent studies have furnished evidence for interdecadal variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The importance of this phenomenon in causing persistent anomalies over different regions of the globe has drawn considerable attention in view of its relevance in climate assessment. Here, we examine multi-source climate records in order to identify possible signatures of this longer time scale variability on the Indian summer monsoon. The findings indicate a coherent inverse relationship between the inter-decadal fluctuations of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and the Indian monsoon rainfall during the last century. A warm (cold) phase of the Pacific interdecadal variability is characterized by a decrease (increase) in the monsoon rainfall and a corresponding increase (decrease) in the surface air temperature over the Indian subcontinent. This interdecadal relationship can also be confirmed from the teleconnection patterns evident from long-period sea level pressure (SLP) dataset. The SLP anomalies over South and Southeast Asia and the equatorial west Pacific are dynamically consistent in showing an out-of-phase pattern with the SLP anomalies over the tropical central-eastern Pacific. The remote influence of the Pacific interdecadal variability on the monsoon is shown to be associated with prominent signals in the tropical and southern Indian Ocean indicative of coherent inter-basin variability on decadal time scales. If indeed, the atmosphere–ocean coupling associated with the Pacific interdecadal variability is independent from that of the interannual El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), then the climate response should depend on the evolutionary characteristics of both the time scales. It is seen from our analysis that the Indian monsoon is more vulnerable to drought situations, when El Niño events occur during warm phases of the Pacific interdecadal variability. Conversely, wet monsoons are more likely to prevail, when La Niña events coincide during cold phases of the Pacific interdecadal variability.     

Influence of Eurasian snow on Indian summer monsoon in NCEP CFSv2 freerun

The latest version of the state-of-the-art global land–atmosphere–ocean coupled climate forecast system of NCEP has shown considerable improvement in various aspects of the Indian summer monsoon. However, climatological mean dry bias over the Indian sub-continent is further increased as compared to the previous version. Here we have attempted to link this dry bias with climatological mean bias in the Eurasian winter/spring snow, which is one of the important predictors of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Simulation of interannual variability of the Eurasian snow and its teleconnection with the ISMR are quite reasonable in the model. Using composite analysis it is shown that a positive snow anomaly, which is comparable to the systematic bias in the model, results into significant decrease in the summer monsoon rainfall over the central India and part of the Equatorial Indian Ocean. Decrease in the summer monsoon rainfall is also found to be linked with weaker northward propagation of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). A barotropic stationary wave triggered by positive snow anomaly over west Eurasia weakens the upper level monsoon circulation, which in turn reduces the zonal wind shear and hence, weakens the northward propagation of summer monsoon ISOs. A sensitivity experiment by reducing snow fall over Eurasian region causes decrease in winter and spring snow depth, which in turn leads to decrease in Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Results from the sensitivity experiment corroborate with those of composite analysis based on long free run. This study suggests that further improvements in the snow parametrization schemes as well as Arctic sea ice are needed to reduce the Eurasian snow bias during winter/spring, which may reduce the dry bias over Indian sub-continent and hence predictability aspect of the model.     

Daily modes of South Asian summer monsoon variability in the NCEP climate forecast system

The leading modes of daily variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the climate forecast system (CFS), a coupled general circulation model, of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) are examined. The space?Ctime structures of the daily modes are obtained by applying multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) on the daily anomalies of rainfall. Relations of the daily modes to intraseasonal and interannual variability of the monsoon are investigated. The CFS has three intraseasonal oscillations with periods around 106, 57 and 30?days with a combined variance of 7%. The 106-day mode has spatial structure and propagation features similar to the northeastward propagating 45-day mode in the observations except for its longer period. The 57-day mode, despite being in the same time scale as of the observations has poor eastward propagation. The 30-day mode is northwestward propagating and is similar to its observational counterpart. The 106-day mode is specific to the model and should not be mistaken for a new scale of variability in observations. The dominant interannual signal is related to El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and, unlike in the observations, has maximum variance in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Although the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode was not obtained as a separate mode in the rainfall, the ENSO signal has good correlations with the dipole variability, which, therefore, indicates the dominance of ENSO in the model. The interannual variability is largely determined by the ENSO signal over the regions where it has maximum variance. The interannual variability of the intraseasonal oscillations is smaller in comparison.     

东亚夏季风强弱年季节内振荡的传播特征

利用1979—2007年的逐日OLR资料和1960—2007年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析风场资料,采用合成分析和波谱分析方法研究了强弱夏季风年北半球夏季季节内振荡(BSISO)的基本特征。结果表明:BSISO的能谱主要分布在1波和2波范围内,在热带地区,主要是以1波东传为主,在较高纬度,可以看到明显的西传分量;而在经向上主要是以30～60 d周期的北传为主。在强(弱)夏季风年时,纬向方向上,热带地区ISO东传加强(减弱),而20°N以北的较高纬度,ISO西传是减弱(加强)的;经向方向上,最显著的差异是西太平洋地区北传ISO是加强(减弱)的。造成强弱夏季风年ISO传播差异的原因是由于强弱夏季风年中西太平洋地区纬向风场和对流场存在明显差异,在这种大范围大气环流异常的情况下,ISO的经向和纬向传播产生了明显的差异。     

An Indian monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) index for real time monitoring and forecast verification

The wet/dry spells of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall are governed by northward propagating boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO). Unlike for the Madden Julian Oscillation (e.g. RMM indices, Wheeler and Hendon in Mon Weather Rev 132:1917–1932, 2004), a low dimensional real-time monitoring and forecast verification metric for the MISO is not currently available. Here, for the first time, we present a real time monitoring index developed for identifying the amplitude and phase of the MISO over the ISM domain. The index is constructed by applying extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis on daily unfiltered rainfall anomalies averaged over the longitudinal domain 60.5°E–95.5°E. The gravest two modes of the EEOFs together explain about 23 % of the total variance, similar to the variance explained by MISO in observation. The pair of first two principal components (PCs) of the EEOFs is named as MISO1 and MISO2 indices which together represent the evolution of the MISOs in a low dimensional phase space. Power spectral analysis reveals that the MISO indices neatly isolate the MISO signal from the higher frequency noise. It is found that the current amplitude and phase of the MISO can be estimated by preserving a memory of at least 15 days. Composite pictures of the spatio-temporal evolution of the MISOs over the ISM domain are brought out using the MISO indices. It is further demonstrated that the MISO indices can be used in the quantification of skill of extended range forecasts of MISOs. Since the MISO index does not rely on any sort of time filtering, it has great potential for real time monitoring of the MISO and may be useful in developing some prediction scheme.