Recent trends of temperature and precipitation proxies in Saudi Arabia: implications for climate change

The objective of the present study was to reconstruct a short-term (12–14 years) trend of surface temperature and precipitation patterns using their surrogates as provided by satellite images for selected locations along the Red Sea mountains in Saudi Arabia. Time series land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data acquired from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite were temporally plotted to delineate the trend and the decadal rates of change of both parameters. Results showed that real climate change is reported in the study area during the study period. There is a net increasing in the surface temperatures by 0.45 to 1.2 °C/decade and a net decrease in annual rainfall between 2001 and 2014. Findings of the present study show that the region is under a warming of the climate and a declining of wetness, which coincide with the air temperature and rainfall trends obtained from meteorological stations.     

Global sensitivity analysis in an ocean general circulation model: a sparse spectral projection approach

Polynomial chaos (PC) expansions are used to propagate parametric uncertainties in ocean global circulation model. The computations focus on short-time, high-resolution simulations of the Gulf of Mexico, using the hybrid coordinate ocean model, with wind stresses corresponding to hurricane Ivan. A sparse quadrature approach is used to determine the PC coefficients which provides a detailed representation of the stochastic model response. The quality of the PC representation is first examined through a systematic refinement of the number of resolution levels. The PC representation of the stochastic model response is then utilized to compute distributions of quantities of interest (QoIs) and to analyze the local and global sensitivity of these QoIs to uncertain parameters. Conclusions are finally drawn regarding limitations of local perturbations and variance-based assessment and concerning potential application of the present methodology to inverse problems and to uncertainty management.     

Development of a parameterization for simulating the urban temperature hazard using satellite observations in climate model

Urban surface temperature is hazardously higher than surrounding regions (so-called urban heat island effect UHI). Accurately simulating urbanization-induced temperature hazard is critical for realistically representing urban regions in the land surface-atmosphere climate system. However, inclusion of urban landscapes in regional or global climate models has been overlooked due to the coarse spatial resolution of these models as well as the lack of observations for urban physical properties. Recently, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observing System (EOS) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations illustrate important urban physical properties, including skin temperature, surface albedo, surface emissivity, and leaf area index, It is possible to identify the unique urban features globally and thus simulate global urban processes. An urban scheme is designed to represent the urban-modified physical parameters (albedo, emissivity, land cover, roughness length, thermal and hydraulic properties) and to include new, unique physical processes that exist in urban regions. The urban scheme is coupled with National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Land Model Version 2 (CLM2) and single column coupled NCAR Community Atmosphere Model CAM2/CLM2 to assess the mechanisms responsible for UHI. There are two-steps in our model development. First, satellite observations of albedo, emissivity, LAI, and in situ observed thermal properties are updated in CLM2 to represent the first-order urban effects. Second, new terms representing the urban anthropogenic heat flux, storage heat flux, and roughness length are calculated in the model. Model simulations suggest that human activity-induced surface temperature hazard results in overlying atmosphere instability and convective rainfall, which may enhance the possibility of urban flood hazard.

Case studies of seasonal rainfall forecasts for Hong Kong and its vicinity using a regional climate model

Seasonal climate forecasts are one of the most promising tools for providing early warnings for natural hazards such as floods and droughts. Using two case studies, this paper documents the skill of a regional climate model in the seasonal forecasting of below normal rainfall in southern China during the rainy seasons of July–August–September 2003 and April–May–June 2004. The regional model is based on the Regional Spectral Model of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of the United States. It is the first time that the model has been applied to a region dominated by the East Asian Monsoon. The article shows that the regional climate model, when being forced by reasonably good forecasts from a global model, can generate useful seasonal rainfall forecasts for the region, where it is dominated by the East Asia monsoon. The spatial details of the dry conditions obtained from the regional climate model forecast are also found to be comparable with the observed distribution.     

中东亚地区表土碳酸盐含量和pH值的空间变化及其气候代用指标意义

黄土-古土壤以及湖泊沉积物的碳酸盐含量作为常用的气候指标,被人们广泛地应用于干旱、半干旱地区的古气候研究,然而碳酸盐含量的气候意义却缺乏足够的验证.中东亚干旱、半干旱区覆盖我国西北部和蒙古国全境,区域内温度和降水等具有显著的空间分布特征,这为验证包括碳酸盐矿物含量在内的地球化学代用指标的气候意义提供了理想的研究场所.为此,选取了一条横跨该区不同气候带的采样线,对采样线上表土碳酸盐含量、pH值以及气象站的记录资料行了分析和对比.研究发现:(1)表土碳酸盐含量的分布特征沿着纬度呈现出南高北低的总体趋势,在北纬34.50°～42.50°的广大黄土、类黄土地区,碳酸盐含量较高,而北纬42.5°以北地区碳酸盐含量则相对较少,局部地区由于土壤母质为碳酸盐岩而具有较高的碳酸盐含量;(2)表土碳酸盐含量与pH值的非线性拟合特征反映出土壤碳酸盐矿物含量与pH值之间的化学平衡,两者在0.01水平上呈显著的正相关关系(r=0.51).酸性土壤地区的碳酸盐体系难处于饱和状态,碳酸盐易于淋失含量低,此时,碳酸盐矿物含量不宜作为气候指标,而碱性土壤地区的碳酸盐矿物含量变化与气候变化关系密切;(3)高温、干燥的气候环境使降水被迅速蒸发,加剧了碳酸盐类物质的表聚作用,使黄土、类黄土地区表土碳酸盐含量与降水量、温度都呈现出了一定的正相关关系;(4)黄土、类黄土地区表土pH值与多年平均降水量关系密切(PH>7,R2=0.90),可以作为我国黄土高原地区过去大气降水量变化的代用指标.     

Atmospheric mesoscale conditions during the Boothbay meteotsunami: a numerical sensitivity study using a high-resolution mesoscale model

The article aims to test the sensitivity of high-resolution mesoscale atmospheric model to fairly reproduce atmospheric processes that were present during the Boothbay Harbor meteotsunami on 28 October 2008. The simulations were performed by the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model at 1-km horizontal grid spacing by varying initial conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), nesting strategy, simulation lead time and microphysics and convective parameterizations. It seems that the simulations that used higher-resolution IC and LBC were more successful in reproduction of precipitation zone and surface pressure oscillations caused by internal gravity waves observed during the event. The results were very sensitive to the simulation lead time and to the choice of convective parameterization, while the choice of microphysics parameterization and the type of nesting strategy (one-way or two-way) was less important for reproducibility of the event. The success of the WRF model appears limited to very short-range forecasting, most advanced parameterizations, and very high-resolution grid spacing; therefore, the applicability of present atmospheric mesoscale models to future operational meteotsunami warning systems still has a lot of room for improvements.     

Impacts of climate change on groundwater in Australia: a sensitivity analysis of recharge

Groundwater recharge is a complex process reflecting many interactions between climate, vegetation and soils. Climate change will impact upon groundwater recharge but it is not clear which climate variables have the greatest influence over recharge. This study used a sensitivity analysis of climate variables using a modified version of WAVES, a soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer model (unsaturated zone), to determine the importance of each climate variable in the change in groundwater recharge for three points in Australia. This study found that change in recharge is most sensitive to change in rainfall. Increases in temperature and changes in rainfall intensity also led to significant changes in recharge. Although not as significant as other climate variables, some changes in recharge were observed due to changes in solar radiation and carbon dioxide concentration. When these variables were altered simultaneously, changes in recharge appeared to be closely related to changes in rainfall; however, in nearly all cases, recharge was greater than would have been predicted if only rainfall had been considered. These findings have implications for how recharge is projected to change due to climate change.     

Evaluation of climate change effects in a coastal aquifer in Morocco using a density-dependent numerical model

A density-dependent numerical groundwater model was applied to study the climate change impact in a shallow aquifer in the Mediterranean coast of Morocco, the Saïdia aquifer. The stresses imposed to the model were derived from the IPCC emission scenarios and included recharge variation and sea level rise. The main effect of the climate change in the Saïdia aquifer will be a decrease in renewable resources, which in the worst-case scenario may decrease to 50–60% of present-day values, due to the decline in recharge and to a reduced inflow from the adjacent Triffa aquifer. The water quality will be affected mostly in the area immediately adjacent to the seashore, where salinity may increase up to 30 g/l. Localised areas may see a decrease in salinity due to the induced freshwater recharge from Oued Moulouya River and diminished inflow from high-salinity springs.     

Effect of estuarine flow on ocean circulation using a coupled coastal-bay estuarine model: an application to the 1999 Orissa cyclone

A coupled coastal-bay estuarine numerical model is described and applied to investigate the combination of wind-estuarine driven circulation off the Orissa coast. The model is based on coupling of a 2-dimensional estuarine model with a 3-dimensional coastal-bay model. The models are linked through the elevation at the interface. Using the coupled model, the numerical experiments are carried out to elicit the dynamical linking between the estuarine outflow and the coastal ocean to simulate the ensuing adjoining coastal circulation. During the southwest monsoon, it is noticed that the estuarine discharge from the northern head-bay river system and the river systems that join the Bay of Bengal along the Orissa coast would sufficiently modify the coastal circulation along the coast. Numerical experiments are also carried for the model simulation of surges generated by the 1999 Orissa cyclone. It is shown that the estuarine system would influence significantly on surge development and associated inundation through the rivers.     

Impacts of tectonic and orbital forcing on East African climate: a comparison based on global climate model simulations

A global atmosphere–ocean model has been forced with topographic and orbital scenarios in order to evaluate the relative role of both factors for the past climate of East Africa. Forcing the model with a significantly reduced topography in Eastern and Southern Africa leads to a distinct increase in moisture transport from the Indian Ocean into the eastern part of the continent and increased precipitation in Eastern Africa. Simulations with step-wise reduced height show that this climate change occurs continuously with the change in topography, i.e., an abrupt change of local climatic features with a critical height is not found. Simulations of the last interglacial (at 125,000 years before present, i.e., the Eemian interglacial) and the last glacial inception (at 115,000 years before present) are used as examples for the role of orbital-induced changes in insolation. Here, changes in meridional temperature gradients lead to modifications in moisture transport of similar order of magnitude, but with different spatial and seasonal structure. For the Eemian interglacial, a distinct increase in summer moisture transport from the Atlantic deep into the continent at around 20°N is simulated.     

Environmental setting, (micro)morphologies and stable C–O isotope composition of cold climate carbonate precipitates—a review and evaluation of their potential as paleoclimatic proxies

Given the growing interest in carbonate deposits from polar regions as paleoclimatic proxies, this review paper first provides a classification of the various types of cold-climate carbonate precipitates followed by a summary of the ¹³C and ¹⁸O composition of the carbonate deposits and parent water from which the carbonates precipitated. The cold-climate carbonate precipitates were classified into three broad categories: powders, crusts and speleothem. The carbonate powders include those that precipitated in relation to aufeis aggradation (cryogenic aufeis calcite) and in relation to the growth of various annual/perennial ice formations in freezing caves (cryptocrystalline calcite and calcite pearls). The carbonate crusts can be further subdivided based on their lithic environment; those that precipitated on the upper surface of bedrock/clasts (i.e. subglacially precipitated calcite and evaporative calcite crusts); those that are located on the underside of clasts (i.e. pedogenic carbonates); and those that precipitated in rock outcrop fissures (i.e. endostromatolites). The cold-climate carbonate precipitates have a highly variable isotopic composition with δ¹⁸O values ranging between −6.5‰ and 28‰ VSMOW and δ¹³C values in the −10–20‰ VPDB range. However, each type of carbonate precipitates has a specific δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O range, suggesting that their environmental setting and the mechanism by which they formed controls their ¹³C and ¹⁸O signature. It was found that carbonate deposits that precipitated under equilibrium physico-chemical conditions had a δ¹³C value that is in equilibrium with that of the parent water, while its δ¹⁸O composition was more variable, as it is in part controlled by the temperature of reaction and by the δ¹⁸O and calcite saturation state of the parent water. By contrast, the δ¹⁸O composition of biologically precipitated carbonate deposits (endostromatolites) reflect that of the parent water, while its δ¹³C composition was enriched over that of the parent water due to bacterial methanogenesis. In the case of kinetically precipitated carbonate deposits, the δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C values are out-of-equilibrium relative to that of the parent water due to the faster rate of reaction.     

Imprint of North-Atlantic abrupt climate changes on western European loess deposits as viewed in a dust emission model

Western European loess sequences of the last glaciation (100,000–15,000 years BP) exhibit strong, cyclic variations of the sedimentation rate, which are coeval to the Greenland stadial/interstadial cycles and the Heinrich events. These North-Atlantic rapid climate changes appear, thus, as a potential cause for the sedimentation variations, via changes in dust intensity cycle. Here we make a first step in testing this hypothesis, by modelling the impact of the North-Atlantic abrupt climate variations on dust emission. Our dust emission calculations use meteorological fields generated by the LMDZ atmospheric general circulation model at a resolution down to 60 km over Western Europe. Three numerical experiments are run, representing a Greenland stadial, an interstadial and a Heinrich event. Orbital parameters and ice-sheet configuration correspond to conditions from Marine Isotope Stage 3 (60,000–25,000 years BP), a period characterized by strong millennial-scale climate variability. The only differences we impose in the boundary conditions regard the North-Atlantic surface temperature and sea-ice cover in the latitudinal band 30°–63°N. The changes in wind, precipitation, soil moisture and snow cover from one simulated state to another result in small differences in dust emission intensity. In contrast, when the inhibition of the aeolian erosion by vegetation is taken into account, the dust fluxes for the cold climate states (Greenland stadial and Heinrich event) become generally more than twice higher than those for the relatively warmer Greenland interstadial, in agreement with the loess data. These results support the hypothesis that the North-Atlantic millennial-scale variability is imprinted in Western European loess profiles, and point to vegetation changes as the main factor responsible for millennial-scale sedimentation variations. An analysis for the English Channel and southern North Sea areas, major potential dust sources, shows that the seasonality of dust emission is not controlled by the wind speed, as in modern large deserts, but by the surface conditions. Consequently, the dusty season lasts from late winter to early summer, with maximum activity in April–May, and is shifted towards summer when the climate is colder.     

The mean and turbulence structure simulation of the monsoon trough boundary layer using a one-dimensional model withe-l ande-ε closures

An attempt has been made here to study the sensitivity of the mean and the turbulence structure of the monsoon trough boundary layer to the choice of the constants in the dissipation equation for two stations Delhi and Calcutta, using one-dimensional atmospheric boundary layer model withe-ε turbulence closure. An analytical discussion of the problems associated with the constants of the dissipation equation is presented. It is shown here that the choice of the constants in the dissipation equation is quite crucial and the turbulence structure is very sensitive to these constants. The modification of the dissipation equation adopted by earlier studies, that is, approximating the Tke generation (due to shear and buoyancy production) in theε-equation by max (shear production, shear + buoyancy production), can be avoided by a suitable choice of the constants suggested here. The observed turbulence structure is better simulated with these constants. The turbulence structure simulation with the constants recommended by Aupoixet al (1989) (which are interactive in time) for the monsoon region is shown to be qualitatively similar to the simulation obtained with the constants suggested here, thus implying that no universal constants exist to regulate dissipation rate. Simulations of the mean structure show little sensitivity to the type of the closure parameterization betweene-l ande-ε closures. However the turbulence structure simulation withe-ε. closure is far better compared to thee-l model simulations. The model simulations of temperature profiles compare quite well with the observations whenever the boundary layer is well mixed (neutral) or unstable. However the models are not able to simulate the nocturnal boundary layer (stable) temperature profiles. Moisture profiles are simulated reasonably better. With one-dimensional models, capturing observed wind variations is not up to the mark.     

Global temperature changes: relative importance of greenhouse constituents of the atmosphere as calculated with a 1-d radiative-convective model

Most modelling endeavours concerning the CO₂-climate problem address only the question of the climatic response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, while the amounts of other atmospheric gases remain fixed. But associated changes, either climatologically or anthropogenically induced, of minor atmospheric constituents can also be of significance in producing a substantial global warming. We have analysed the climatic response to changes in a number of atmospheric trace gases as they may enhance or counteract CO₂-induced warming if their abundance should change. A comparison of the increase in equilibrium global-mean surface temperature due to plausible changes in the concentration of several trace gases in the atmosphere based on our calculations with a one-dimensional radiative-convective model is presented in this paper. Our results indicate that roughly 35% of global surface warming could be due to changes in trace gases other than CO₂ and water vapour. The possible climatic consequences of the ongoing anthropogenic changes in the minor constituents of the atmosphere are also discussed.     

Limitation of using heat as a groundwater tracer to define aquifer properties: experiment in a large tank model

The implementation of the EU-Water Framework Directive (WFD) might also be considered an approach for the implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management in Europe. The WFD outlines the ambitious goal of attaining “good status” for Europe’s rivers, lakes, groundwater bodies and coastal waters by 2015 in accordance with clearly defined time lines and legally binding programmes of measures. EU member states submitted their WFD river basin management plans to the European Commission in March 2010. Almost all member states accomplished the formal implementation, but nations like Germany are far from achieving the “good status”. For Germany, exemptions have been claimed for 82 % of all surface water bodies and for 36 % of all groundwater bodies. According to the identified significant pressures and impacts, the German Federal States, the Federal government and the European Union will have to significantly increase the coordination and coherence of the policies in the field of agriculture, energy generation, transport (shipping) and production or use of chemicals. The next generation of river basin management plans may be used for the harmonisation of these topics and extend to the polluter-specific characterization of water body pressures and impacts, structures and methods of monitoring, allowing the differentiation of multiple stressors, the designation of heavily modified water bodies and the determination of good ecological potential, exemptions and their justification, coherent transregional management objectives and reporting issues. The present study focuses on the assessment of the status of German water bodies, the achievement of environmental objectives and the necessary measures required to meet the goals.     

Livestock productivity as indicator of vulnerability to climate hazards: a Mongolian case study

Mongolia is subject to regular peaks of livestock winter mortality called dzuds. Several kinds of dzud exist and the ‘white dzud’, characterized by heavy stochastic snowfalls preventing livestock to access forage, is considered the most common. Droughts and high livestock densities are thought to be part of the dzud process by affecting body condition, which increases vulnerability to snowfalls. Guided by the equilibrium/nonequilibrium framework, we studied how rainfall, animal numbers and pasture health (defined as the integrity of ecological processes sustaining grass growth) impact livestock body condition in a case study of West Mongolia. We studied this parameter through livestock productivity (LP) as a proxy, defined as the annual number of newborns per breeding-age female. We found no significant impact of rainfall or livestock numbers, alone or combined. We found through the study of pasture use, defined as the ratio forage consumed/forage available, an impact of the combined effect of rainfall, animal numbers and pasture health. We observed in addition sharp LP decreases prior to dzuds, which suggests that the above-mentioned drivers interact to weaken livestock which increases its vulnerability to winter hazards. This tends to show that in our case study, dzuds are not the simple consequence of stochastic hazards striking randomly, but instead, the final stage of a chain of events that involves dry years, high livestock densities and pasture degradation. This also indicates that dzud early warning indicators could be designed based on LP monitoring.