An intercomparison of hurricane forecasts using SSM/I and TRMM rain rate algorithm(s)

Summary Three different Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) rain rate algorithms are evaluated as a means of improving both the physical initialization and the hurricane forecast output of the Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSU GSM). These SSM/I rain rate algorithms are known as Cal/Val, NESDIS, and GPROF 4.0. In addition the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) TMI – 2A12 rain rate algorithm is validated, and its impact on FSU GSM hurricane forecasts is also studied. Validation results of the Cal/Val rain rate algorithm show a bias toward gross underestimation. Both the NESDIS and GPROF 4.0 algorithms produce robust rain rates, in agreement with surface based observations. However, the NESDIS SSM/I rain rate algorithm proves to be the most consistent and accurate in this study. Surface rain rates as estimated by the TRMM/TMI – 2A12 algorithm can be inconsistent, mainly due to satellite observational coverage gaps. The impact of different magnitudes of rain on the FSU GSM is significant. In theory, the application of more accurate and consistent rain rates should produce an improvement in model-calculated latent heat release and cumulus parameterization. The net effect is a more representative, modeled global circulation and improved hurricane track prediction. This research has shown that the use of NESDIS SSM/I rain rates in the physical initialization of the FSU GSM provides the most accurate hurricane track forecasts. Received July 22, 1999 Revised November 28, 1999     

Physical retrievals of over-ocean rain rate from multichannel microwave imagery. Part I: Theoretical characteristics of normalized polarization and scattering indices

Summary Microwave rain rate retrieval algorithms have most often been formulated in terms of the raw brightness temperatures observed by one or more channels of a satellite radiometer. Taken individually, single-channel brightness temperatures generally represent a near-arbitrary combination of positive contributions due to liquid water emission and negative contributions due to scattering by ice and/or visibility of the radiometrically cold ocean surface. Unfortunately, for a given rain rate, emission by liquid water below the freezing level and scattering by ice particles above the freezing level are rather loosely coupled in both a physical and statistical sense. Furthermore, microwave brightness temperatures may vary significantly (30–70 K) in response to geophysical parameters other than liquid water and precipitation. Because of these complications, physical algorithms which attempt to directly invert observed brightness temperatures have typically relied on the iterative adjustment of detailed microphysical profiles or cloud models, guided by explicit forward microwave radiative transfer calculations.In support of an effort to develop a significantly simpler and more efficient inversion-type rain rate algorithm, the physical information content of two linear transformations of single-frequency, dual-polarization brightness temperatures is studied: thenormalized polarization difference P of Petty and Katsaros (1990, 1992), which is intended as a measure of footprint-averaged rain cloud transmittance for a given frequency; and ascattering index S (similar to the polarization corrected temperature of Spencer et al., 1989) which is sensitive almost exclusively to ice. A reverse Monte Carlo radiative transfer model is used to elucidate the qualitative response of these physically distinct single-frequency indices to idealized 3-dimensional rain clouds and to demonstrate their advantages over raw brightness temperatures both as stand-alone indices of precipitation activity and as primary variables in physical, multichannel rain rate retrieval schemes.As a byproduct of the present analysis, it is shown that conventional plane-parallel analyses of the well-known footprint-filling problem for emission-based algorithms may in some cases give seriously misleading results.With 11 Figures     

Physical retrievals of over-ocean rain rate from multichannel microwave imagery. Part II: Algorithm implementation

Summary A new physical inversion-based algorithm for retrieving rain rate over the ocean with the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) is described. In a departure from other rain rate retrieval algorithms, the satellite observables inverted in the present algorithm are not the raw brightness temperatures but rather normalized polarizations for 19.35, 37.0, and 85.5 GHz, plus an 85.5 GHz scattering index which is sensitive primarily to ice particles aloft. The normalized polarizations are interpreted as footprint-averages of theoretically derived analytic functions of the column optical depth associated primarily with liquid water. The effective vertical depth of the rain layer is specified as a function of the SSM/I estimated column water vapor.The retrieval algorithm performs an iterative search for a high resolution (12.5 km) rain field which is simultaneously consistent with the 19.35 and 37.0 GHz normalized polarizations. The first-guess rain rate field is supplied by the 85.5 GHz scattering index. At gridpoints for which the rain column optical depth exceeds the dynamic range of the attenuation-based indices, the first-guess field is left essentially unmodified; elsewhere, the required consistency with the 19 and 37 GHz indices usually results in significant modification of the scattering-based rain rate estimates.The algorithm as described here is a prototype implementation which was developed with reference only to idealized theoretical models; empirical improvements to the numerical scheme and the model coefficients will be made in the future as results from the first Precipitation [algorithm] Intercomparison Project 1 (PIP-1) and the second phase of the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) algorithm Intercomparison Project (AIP/2) are analyzed, as well as data from individual validation efforts. Although the algorithm is physically based and uses all SSM/I channels, it is computationally much less demanding than cloud/radiative transfer model-based inversion algorithms published else-where.With 9 Figures     

Retrieval of tropospheric co profiles using correlation radiometer: I. retrieval experiments for a clear atmosphere

This paper discusses the retrieval scheme associated with the gas correlated radiometer- MOPITT which will be on board of EOS-AM1 to measure the global vertical profiles of car-bon monoxide. The vertical resolution and retrieval errors caused by errors in the temperature profiles and in the surface temperature have been assessed. The main results are: a. Assuming the noise equivalent radiance (NER) of 1.8 × 105 W m-2 sr-1, the surface tem?perature can be deduced from the wide band signals with uncertainly less than 1 K, and the atmospheric term of the modulated signal can be deduced with errors almost equal to the NER which does not significantly increase errors in the retrieved CO profiles. b. With typical uncertainty in temperature profiles, errors in the retrieved profiles at lati-? tudes lower than 70o are generally less than 20% with the first guess of 100 ppbv. (If a better first guess was used, the errors may decrease). c. By incorporating the total column CO amount derived from the reflected solar radiation in 2.3 μm spectral region into the retrieval, the accuracy of the retrieved CO profile below 6 km may be greatly improved. d. In the retrieval experiment with 10 CO profiles representing the typical CO profiles, the r.m.s. relative / absolute errors of the retrieved CO profiles are about 10% / 15-20 ppbv.     

MODES系统对贵州月气温、降水预测初步评估

基于CMPAS多源融合降水和ERA5再分析产品,评估ECMWF全球高分辨率确定性预报产品对2020年梅雨期(6月10日—7月20日)极端强降水过程的预报性能。同时,基于面向对象的诊断评估方法(MODE),揭示ECMWF模式对强降水落区的质心经纬度、面积、长度、宽度、轴角等空间特征的预报性能。结果表明,ECMWF模式对于梅雨期的日降水量预报,在雨带的空间位置上,模式预报偏北、偏西的偏差较多;在落区形态上,模式预报的雨带面积偏大,轴角倾斜度更大。观测中江淮流域区域平均降水的日变化主峰值出现在清晨至上午,ECMWF预报能够再现降水日变化特征。针对模式对主雨带南北落区质心位置预报偏差的评估表明,模式预报主雨带位置偏北的频次呈现出双峰分布的日变化特征,峰值出现在夜间和午后。雨带位置预报偏南的频次为单峰分布,峰值在上午。低空急流的日变化特征明显,且峰值时刻超前降水峰值时刻3 h,而ECMWF预报急流峰值时刻则较观测早3 h。ECMWF预报降水落区位置偏差与预报低层南风分量的强弱偏差相关,当对流层低层南风分量偏强时,雨带位置预报易偏北;南风分量较弱时雨带位置预报易偏南。针对ECMWF预报位置偏北和偏差较小的两次典型强降水事件的对比分析,结果表明在小时尺度上急流与降水的日变化一致,ECMWF预报降水落区的偏北与前3 h内强度更强的急流有关。

     

A MESO-α SCALE STUDY OF MEIYU FRONT HEAVY RAIN－PART I: OBSERVATIONAL STUDIES

In this paper, the data collected during the Mesoscale Weather Experiments in East China are utilized to study the meso-α scale rain-bands of meiyu front heavy rain, its structural features as well as the mechanism of its development. It has been revealed that the precipitation band during the meiyu season is in the shape of ribbon, which is parallel to the surface quasi-stationary front. Sometimes two meso-α scale rain-bands are present. The meso-α scale rain-band is associated with meso-α scale convergence line. As shown by the two dimentional disturbance circulation, calculated through band-pass filtering, the single rain-band is quite different from the double rain-bands. The former is, to some extent, akin to the frontogenctical circulation in the vicinity of the high- and low-level frontal zones; the latter features roller-like circulations at middle and low-levels with their axes parallel to the rain-bands while at higher levels they run in the opposite direction. This kind of disturbance may be caused by the symmetric instability in the moist atmosphere.     

Applications of AMSR-E Measurements for Tropical Cyclone Predictions Part Ⅰ： Retrieval of Sea Surface Temperature and Wind Speed

Existing satellite microwave algorithms for retrieving Sea Surface Temperature （SST） and Wind （SSW） are applicable primarily for non-raining cloudy conditions. With the launch of the Earth Observing System （EOS） Aqua satellite in 2002, the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer （AMSRoE） onboard provides some unique measurements at lower frequencies which are sensitive to ocean surface parameters under adverse weather conditions. In this study, a new algorithm is developed to derive SST and SSW for hurricane predictions such as hurricane vortex analysis from the AMSRoE measurements at 6.925 and 10.65 GHz. In the algorithm, the effects of precipitation emission and scattering on the measurements are properly taken into account. The algorithm performances are evaluated with buoy measurements and aircraft dropsonde data. It is found that the root mean square （RMS） errors for SST and SSW are about 1.8 K and 1.9 m s^- 1, respectively, when the results are compared with the buoy data over open oceans under precipitating clouds （e.g., its liquid water path is larger than 0.5 mm）, while they are 1.1 K for SST and 2.0 m s^-1 for SSW, respectively, when the retrievals are validated against the dropsonde measurements over warm oceans. These results indicate that our newly developed algorithm can provide some critical surface information for tropical cycle predictions. Currently, this newly developed algorithm has been implemented into the hybrid variational scheme for the hurricane vortex analysis to provide predictions of SST and SSW fields.     

Application of Radar Reflectivity Factor in Initializing Cloud-Resolving Mesoscale Model. Part Ⅰ： Retrieval of Microphysical Elements and Vertical Velocity

Assuming that cloud reaches static state in the warm microphysical processes, water vapor mixing ratio （qv）, cloud water mixing ratio （qc）, and vertical velocity （w） can be calculated from rain water mixing ratio （qr）. Through relation of Z-qr, qr can be retrieved by radar reflectivity factor （Z）. Retrieval results indicate that the distributions of mixing ratios of vapor, cloud, rain, and vertical velocity are consistent with radar images, and the three-dimensional spatial structure of the convective cloud is presented. Treating qv saturated at the echo area, the retrieved qr is about 0.1 g kg^-1, qc is always less than 0.3 g kg^-1, w is usually below 0.5 m s^-1, and rain droplet terminal velocity （vr） is around 5.0 m s^-1 in the place where radar reflectivity factor is about 25 dBz; in the place where echo is 45 dBz, the retrieved qr and qc are always about 3.0 g kg^-1, w is greater than 5.0 m s^-1, and vr is around 7.0 m s^-1. In the vertical, the maximum updraft velocity is greater than 3.0 m s^-1 at the height of around 5.0 km, the maximum cloud water content is about 3.0 g kg^-1 above 5 km and the maximum rain water content is about 3.0 g kg^-1 below 6 km. Due to the assumption that the cloud is in static state, there will be some errors in the retrieved variables within the clouds which are rapidly growing or dying-out, and in such cases, more sophisticated radar data control technique will help to improve the retrieval results.     

Reflectivity‐rain rate relationships for convective rainshowers in Edmonton: Research note

Abstract

A reflectivity‐rainfall rate (Z‐R) relationship is derived from Carvel radar and Edmonton rain gauge measurements. Our analysis indicates that the traditional point‐by‐point comparison method is not accurate for Alberta summertime precipitation due to timing errors in fast moving convective storms. The Window Probability Matching Method (WPMM) was superior and provided a robust Z‐R relationship in the form of Z = 32.5 R^1.65.     

Displaced-Beam Small Aperture Scintillometer Test. Part I: The Wintex Data-Set

The friction velocity (u_*) and the sensible heat flux density (H) determined with a displaced-beam small aperture scintillometer (DBSAS) and a hot-film eddy correlation system are compared. Random errors in the DBSAS are relatively small, compared to scatter found with two eddy-correlation systems. Assuming that the hot-film system yields the true fluxes, theDBSAS appears to overestimate u_* when u_* is less than 0.2 m s^-1 and to underestimate u_* at high wind speeds. This implies that the DBSAS measurements of theinner scale length of turbulence, l₀, a direct measure for the dissipation rate of kinetic turbulent energy, are biased. Possible causes for these results are discussedin detail. A correction procedure is presented to account for effects of random noise and of so-called inactive turbulence or sensor vibrations. The errors in u_* cause errors in the DBSAS measurements of the structure parameter of temperature C_T ². The derived H appears to be less sensitive to errors in l₀ and C_T ², because errors in these quantities tend to cancel out.     

Retrieval of Tropospheric CO Profiles Using Correlation Radiometer:I.Retrieval Experiments for a Clear Atmosphere

1.IntroductionMeasurementofCOprofilesinthetroposphereisofprimaryimportanceforimprovingourunderstandingoftheglobalsystem.ThisopinionhasbeenputforwardinthereportoftheWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(1985);"DefinitionoftrendsanddistributionfortroposphericCOisessential."(WorldMeteorologicalOrganization,1985).ThisisbecauseCarbonmonoxide(CO)playsaveryimportantroleinthechemistryofthetroposphereandlowerstratospherethroughitsinfluenceoverhydroxylradical(OH)andozoneconcentration.Becauseofitsshorta…     

The heating field in an asymmetric hurricane — Part I: Scale analysis

A closed system of equations describing an asymmetric disturbance in cylindrical geometry is expanded about a small parameter. The small parameter describes the ratio of the magnitude of divergence in the boundary layer to that above that layer. A low order system describes a gradient wind balance in the radial direction and is quasi-symmetric with respect to the pressure and temperature fields. This system can be solved as an inverse problem for a mature steady state hurricane. The procedure entails asking the questions what structure and heating distributions are required to maintain a given asymmetric distribution of the tangential velocity (i. e. the angular momentum) in steady state. The method of characteristics enables us to solve for the vertical motion. That in turn determines the radial motion from the mass continuity equation. Application of the hydrostatics to the cylindrical thermal wind equation determines the pressure and the thermal fields and finally the required heating fields are deduced from the first law. This entire system of inverse dynamics is linear although no nonlinear terms are dropped from the original direct set of equations. The real data applications of this procedure will be described in part II (to be published in the next issue).     

季风指数及其年际变化I·环流强度指数

季风环流可以分解为经向环流和纬向环流。使用NCEP和ECMWF再分析资料,计算亚洲季风区的经向动量环流和纬向动量环流强度的季节内和年际变化,结果表明:对于南亚夏季风和东南亚-西太平洋夏季风,其各自的经向环流和纬向环流的季节内变化和年际变化存在着相当的联系,尤其东南亚-西太平洋夏季风。但南亚夏季风的经向环流和纬向环流的年际变化在不同月份有着不同的关系。对于东亚夏季风,经向环流和纬向环流变化之间的相关在季节内尺度上是线性独立的,而在年际尺度上存在一定的联系。作者指出:这种大尺度上的联系是通过科里奥利力发生作用,并且受热源调节的。同时局地的对流和辐射相互作用则在某种程度上削弱这种联系,导致在不同月份相关程度有所不同。从各季风系统的经向环流之间或纬向环流之间的线性相关看,南亚夏季风,东亚夏季风和东南亚-西太平洋夏季风是相互独立的系统。计算表明,Webster-Yang和Wang-Fan分别提出的南亚夏季风指数在描述纬向环流年际变化上较好,而在经向上勉强令人满意。Wang-Fan提出的描述东南亚-西太平洋夏季风指数,则较好地表示了该区域的经向和纬向环流的年际变化。Goswami提出的季风Hadley环流指数,以及郭其蕴、施能等提出的东亚夏季风指数则较好地描述了相应区域的经向环流圈年际变化,却无法描述相应的纬向环流圈的年际变化。通过计算还表明,NCEP再分析资料和ECMWF再分析资料在1968年以前的南亚季风区和东亚季风区存在着较大的差异。用NCEP再分析资料计算东亚季风区和南亚季风区经向动量环流圈的变率在20世纪60年代较ECMWF的偏大。用NCEP再分析资料计算施能等定义的东亚季风区指数,也较使用ECMWF再分析资料、UCAR的DS010.1及CRU的北半球海平面气压资料计算的偏大。     

A MESO-α-SCALE STUDY OF MEIYU FRONT HEAVY RAIN－PART II: THE DYNAMICAL ANALYSIS OF RAIN-BAND DISTURBANCE

The alternating change of the two meiyu front rain-bands caused by the alternating change between the moist potential vorticities is discussed. The main factors of the change of moist potential vorticity are the vertical and horizontal divergence of moist potential vorticity flux as well as the vertical transport caused by the cumulus mass flux. Also discussed is the possibility that the WAVE-CISK conditional symmetric instability in the baroclinic moist atmosphere leads to the forming of the double rain-bands and their roller-shaped circulation features. Theoretical analyses show that the latitudinal disturbance scale-selection by the primitive moisture model of the latent heat release in cumulus convection depends on the stratification instability parameter (Ri number) and viscous coefficient of eddy.     

A numerical world ocean general circulation model Part I. Basic design and barotropic experiment

A new six-layer world ocean general circulation model based on the primitive system of equations is described in detail and its performance in the case of a homogeneous ocean is described. These test integrations show that the model is capable of reproducing the observed mean barotropic or vertically-integrated transport, as well as the seasonal variability of the major ocean gyres. The surface currents, however, are dominated by the Ekman transport, and such non-linear features as the western boundary currents and the equatorial countercurrents are poorly represented. The abyssal boundary countercurrents are also absent due to the lack of thermohaline forcing. The most conspicuous effect of the bottom topography on a homogeneous ocean is seen in the Southern ocean where the calculated Antarctic circumpolar transport through the Drake passage ( ≈ 10 Sv, with bathymetry included) greatly underestimates the observed transport (≈ 100 Sv).     

Convection in PIDCAP Part I: Evaluating LAM convection

Summary One goal of BALTEX is to quantify the energy and water cycle over the Baltic region through LAMs. The convective components of these cycles cannot be explicitly modelled and thus are parameterized. In this two-part paper we consider the total convective heat flux c as key sub-gridscale quantity. We use it, in the present Part I, for a model intercomparison. We have four European LAMs (EM, BM, REMO and HIRLAM) at our disposal and run them, both in the prognostic and in the diagnostic mode, for a 9-day target period (Aug/Sep 1995) located within the convectively active part of PIDCAP. We find in the prognostic mode that the vertical profile of c is in most cases characterized by boundary layer convection. The flux is strongest at the surface ( W/m²) and becomes weaker at higher levels. In three deep convection experiments we select columns with a maximum number of lightning events, a maximum precipitation rate and a maximum c. These events are rare (order of 1 % of all columns) but show free atmosphere fluxes of up to  W/m². This result is supported by the net condensation rate CON which is complementary to c. The differences between the LAMs in terms of c and CON are small but significant. From the analysed gridscale fields of the LAMs we further derive, in the diagnostic mode, profiles of c, CON and other convective parameters and compare them with their forecast equivalents. The comparison is best for the HIRLAM model. This suggests that the physical package of HIRLAM, due to its hybrid convection scheme STRACO, may be a bit more realistic than those of EM, BM and REMO. Conclusion of Part I is that the total convective heat flux c is useful to make the model physics comparable across LAMs. In Part II, the problem how to diagnose c from observed gridscale data will be reviewed. Received January 8, 2001 Revised April 26, 2001     

Wintertime stratospheric anomalies— Part I: Warm pools

The stratospheric worm pools, called the 4-day wave also, are mainly the temperature anomalies in the polar re-gions of winter hemisphere. It will be shown that their occurrence, propagation speed and specific structure can be explained by the lower frequency coherent heating resulting from the wave interaction in the breaking layers of the stratosphere. Although their vertical phase slope is negligibly small, the warm pools cannot be considered as a barotropic anomaly.     

The Energy Balance Experiment EBEX-2000. Part I: overview and energy balance

An overview of the Energy Balance Experiment (EBEX-2000) is given. This experiment studied the ability of state-of-the-art measurements to close the surface energy balance over a surface (a vegetative canopy with large evapotranspiration) where closure has been difficult to obtain. A flood-irrigated cotton field over uniform terrain was used, though aerial imagery and direct flux measurements showed that the surface still was inhomogeneous. All major terms of the surface energy balance were measured at nine sites to characterize the spatial variability across the field. Included in these observations was an estimate of heat storage in the plant canopy. The resultant imbalance still was 10%, which exceeds the estimated measurement error. We speculate that horizontal advection in the layer between the canopy top and our flux measurement height may cause this imbalance, though our estimates of this term using our measurements resulted in values less than what would be required to balance the budget. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is supported by the National Science Foundation     

The effect of barotropic shear on baroclinic instability Part I: Normal mode problem

The effect of barotropic shear in the basic flow on baroclinic instability is investigated using a linear multilevel quasi-geostrophic β-plane channel model and a nonlinear spherical primitive equation model. Barotropic shear has a profound effect on baroclinic instability. It reduces the growth rates of normal modes by severely restricting their structure, confirming earlier results with a two-layer model. Dissipation, in the form of Ekman pumping and Newtonian cooling, does not change the main characteristics of the effect of the shear on normal mode instability.Barotropic shear in the basic state, characterized by large shear vorticity with small horizontal curvature, also effects the nonlinear development of baroclinic waves. The shear limits the energy conversion from the zonal available potential energy to eddy energy, reducing the maximum eddy kinetic energy level reached by baroclinic waves. Barotropic shear, which controls the level of eddy activity, is a major factor which should be considered when parameterizing the eddy temperature and momentum fluxes induced by baroclinic waves in a climate model.