A spatial correlation model of peak ground acceleration and response spectra based on data of the Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System

Ground motion intensity measures such as the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and the pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) at two sites due to the same seismic event are correlated. The spatial correlation needs to be considered when modeling ground-motion fields for seismic loss assessments, since it can have a significant influence on the statistical moments and probability distribution of aggregated seismic loss of a building portfolio.Empirical models of spatial correlation of ground motion intensity measures exist only for a few seismic regions in the world such as Japan, Taiwan and California, since for this purpose a dense observation network of earthquake ground motion is required. The Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System (IERREWS) provides one such dense array with station spacing of typically 2 km in the urban area of Istanbul. Based on the records of eight small to moderate (M_w3.5–M_w5.1) events, which occurred since 2003 in the Marmara region, we establish a model of intra-event spatial correlation for PGA and PSA up to the natural period of 1.0 s.The results indicate that the correlation coefficients of PGA and short-period PSA decay rapidly with increasing interstation distance, resulting in correlation lengths of approximately 3–4 km, while correlation lengths at longer natural periods (above 0.5 s) exceed 6 km. Finally, we implement the correlation model in a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate economic loss in Istanbul's district Zeytinburnu due to a M_w7.2 scenario earthquake.     

Prediction of ground motion due to the collapse of a large-scale cooling tower under strong earthquakes

The ground motion owing to the collapse of a large-scale cooling tower under strong earthquakes was appropriately predicted using a comprehensive approach. The predicted results can be used for the safety evaluation of nuclear-related facilities adjacent to the cooling tower as well as in the planning of nuclear power plant construction in China. In this study, a cooling tower–soil model was first developed based on a falling weight–soil model, which the authors verified by falling weight tests. Then the collapse process of a cooling tower was simulated, and the collapse-induced ground vibrations were assessed by using the proposed model. Finally, the ground motion, which was a combination of the earthquake-induced ground motion and the collapse-induced ground vibrations, was estimated based on the superposition principle of waves. It was found that the cooling tower may collapse under strong earthquakes with the peak ground accelerations (PGAs) in the range of 0.35–0.45 g in x (EW) and y (NS) directions, respectively. These PGAs are far beyond the PGA range of major earthquakes in the common seismic design in China. The types of the site geologies of towers can significantly affect the collapse-induced ground vibrations. For a typical hard soil consisting of strongly weathered sandy slate, moderate ground vibrations may occur in the considered region. The collapse-induced PGAs were in the range of 0.017–0.046 g for the observed points at distances of 350 m in radial direction. For a rock-like foundation, the collapse-induced radial PGAs may be as high as 0.08 g at distances of 350 m, indicating that the effect of the collapse-induced ground vibrations on the nuclear-related facilities should be seriously assessed in certain scenarios.     

Seismic response of deep Quaternary sediments in historical center of L’Aquila City (central Italy)

On 6 April 2009 a M_w=6.1 earthquake produced severe destruction and damage over the historic center of L’Aquila City (central Italy), in which the accelerometer stations AQK and AQU recorded a large amount of near-fault ground motion data. This paper analyzes the recorded ground motions and compares the observed peak accelerations and the horizontal to vertical response spectral ratios with those revealed from numerical simulations. The finite element method is considered herein to perform dynamic modeling on the soil profile underlying the seismic station AQU. The subsurface model, which is based on the reviewed surveys that were carried out in previous studies, consists of 200–400 m of Quaternary sediments overlying a Meso-Cenozoic carbonate bedrock. The Martin-Finn-Seed's pore-water pressure model is used in the simulations. The horizontal to vertical response spectral ratio that is observed during the weak seismic events shows three predominant frequencies at about 14 Hz, 3 Hz and 0.6 Hz, which may be related to the computed seismic motion amplification occurring at the shallow colluvium, at the top and base of the fluvial-lacustrine sequence, respectively. During the 2009 L’Aquila main shock the predominant frequency of 14 Hz shifts to lower values probably due to a peculiar wave-field incidence angle. The predominant frequency of 3 Hz shifts to lower values when the earthquake magnitude increases, which may be associated to the progressive softening of soil due to the excess pore-water pressure generation that reaches a maximum value of about 350 kPa in the top of fluvial-lacustrine sequence. The computed vertical peak acceleration underestimates the experimental value and the horizontal to vertical peak acceleration ratio that is observed at station AQU decreases when the earthquake magnitude increases, which reveals amplification of the vertical component of ground motion probably due to near-source effects.     

Idealisation of soil–structure system to determine inelastic seismic response of mid-rise building frames

In this study, a novel and enhanced soil–structure model is developed adopting the direct analysis method using FLAC 2D software to simulate the complex dynamic soil–structure interaction and treat the behaviour of both soil and structure with equal rigour simultaneously. To have a better judgment on the inelastic structural response, three types of mid-rise moment resisting building frames, including 5, 10, and 15 storey buildings are selected in conjunction with three soil types with the shear wave velocities less than 600 m/s, representing soil classes C_e, D_e and E_e, according to Australian Standards. The above mentioned frames have been analysed under two different boundary conditions: (i) fixed-base (no soil–structure interaction) and (ii) flexible-base (considering soil–structure interaction). The results of the analyses in terms of structural displacements and drifts for the above mentioned boundary conditions have been compared and discussed. It is concluded that considering dynamic soil–structure interaction effects in seismic design of moment resisting building frames resting on soil classes D_e and E_e is essential.     

Ground response analysis of Kanpur soil along Indo-Gangetic Plains

The present work deals with 1D and 2D ground response analysis and liquefaction analysis of alluvial soil deposits from Kanpur region along Indo-Gangetic plains. Standard penetration tests and seismic down hole tests have been conducted at four locations namely IITK, Nankari village, Mandhana and Bithoor at 1.5 m interval up to a depth of 30 m below the ground surface to find the variation of penetration blows and the shear wave velocity along the depth. From the selected sites undisturbed as well as representative soil samples have been collected for detailed soil classification. The soil profiles from four sites have been considered for 1D and 2D ground response analysis by applying the free field motions of three Himalayan earthquakes namely Chamba earthquake (M_w—5.1), Chamoli earthquake (M_w—6.4) and Uttarkashi earthquake (M_w—6.5). An average value of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) obtained from 1D and 2D analysis is considered for liquefaction analysis and post-liquefaction settlement. The excess pore water pressure ratio is greater than 0.8 at a depth of 24 m from ground surface for IITK, Nankari village, Bithoor sites. More than 50% of post liquefaction settlement is contributed by layers from 21–30 m for all sites. In general, the soil deposits in Kanpur region have silty sand and sand deposits and are prone to liquefaction hazards due to drastic decrease of cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) at four chosen sites in Kanpur.     

Monofrequency in situ damping measurements in Ottawa area soft soils

In Ottawa, Canada, unusually high amplification ratios have recently been measured in clayey silts (called ‘Leda Clays’) at low levels of earthquake-induced ground shaking. However, the contribution of seismic Q, or material damping (ξ=1/2Q), to the overall ground motion at soft soil sites across the city is not well understood. This research investigates attenuation measurements in soft soils (V_s<250 m/s) for ongoing seismic hazard evaluation in the Ottawa area. The work focuses on in situ measurements of damping in two deep boreholes drilled into Leda Clay. To investigate the possibility of frequency-dependent dynamic properties of these materials at low strains, a new approach to the spectral ratio technique has been developed for the measurement of Q_s in the field using a mono-frequency vibratory source (generating signals between 10 and 100 Hz), and two identical downhole 3-component geophones. Monofrequency signals also allowed for the measurement of dispersion (variation of velocity with frequency). Analysis of the data show that dynamic properties are, for the most part, independent of frequency in the homogenous silty soils, yielding negligible variation in shear wave velocity (<2 m/s) across the frequency test band, and small strain Q_s's ranging from 170 to 200 (damping of 0.25–0.30%) over soil thickness intervals ranging from 10 to 60 m. At intervals within 20 m of the ground surface, laminated silt and clay beds of elevated porosity are found to have slight influence on the frequency dependence of damping for frequencies greater than 70 Hz (damping increase to 0.6%).     

Seismic response evaluation of an urban overpass

The seismic response of one section of a 23 km strategic urban overpass to be built in the so‐called transition and hill zones in Mexico City is presented. The subsoil conditions at these zones typically consist on soft to stiff clay and medium to dense sand deposits, randomly interbedded by loose sand lenses, and underlain by rock formations that may outcrop in some areas. Several critical supports of this overpass are going to be instrumented with accelerometers, inclinometers and extensometers, tell tales and end pile cell pressures to assess their seismic performance during future earthquakes and to generate a database to calibrate soil–structure interaction numerical models. This paper presents the seismic performance evaluation of the critical supports located in one section of the overpass. Sets of finite elements models of the soil–foundation–structure systems were developed. Initially, the model was calibrated analyzing the seismic response that an instrumented bridge support exhibited during the June 15th, 1999 Tehuacan (M_w = 7) Earthquake. This bridge is located also within the surroundings of Mexico City, but in the lake zone, where highly compressible clays are found. The computed response was compared with the measured response in the free field, pile‐box foundation and bridge deck. Once the model prediction capabilities were established, the seismic response of the critical supports of the urban overpass was evaluated for the design earthquake in terms of transfer functions and displacement time histories. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic microzonation studies for the city of Ragusa (Italy)

The seismic history of the city of Ragusa (Italy), the geotechnical characterisation of the subsoil and the site response analysis should be correctly evaluated for the definition of the Seismic Geotechnical Hazard of the city of Ragusa, through geo-settled seismic microzoning maps. Basing on the seismic history of the city of Ragusa, the following earthquake scenarios have been considered: the “Val di Noto” earthquake of January 11, 1693 (with intensity X–XI on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=7.41 and epicentral distance of about 53 km); the “Etna” earthquake of February 20, 1818 (with intensity IX on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=6.23 and epicentral distance of about 64 km); the Vizzini earthquake of April 13, 1895 (with intensity I=VII–VIII on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=5.86 and epicentral distance of about 26 km); the “Modica” earthquake of January 23, 1980 (with intensity I=V–VI on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=4.58 and epicentral distance of about 10 km); the “Sicilian” earthquake of December 13, 1990 (with intensity I=VII on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=5.64 and epicentral distance of about 50 km). Geotechnical characterisation has been performed by in situ and laboratory tests, with the definition of shear wave velocity profiles in the upper 30 m of soil. Soil response analyses have been evaluated for about 120 borings location by some non-linear 1-D models. Finally the seismic microzonation of the city of Ragusa has been obtained in terms of maps with different peak ground acceleration at the surface; shaking maps for the central area of the city of Ragusa were generated via GIS for the earthquake scenarios.     

GIS-based soil liquefaction susceptibility map of Mumbai city for earthquake events

The problem of liquefaction of soil during seismic event is one of the important topics in the field of Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering. Liquefaction of soil is generally occurs in loose cohesionless saturated soil when pore water pressure increases suddenly due to induced ground motion and shear strength of soil decreases to zero and leading the structure situated above to undergo a large settlement, or failure. The failures took place due to liquefaction induced soil movement spread over few square km area continuously. Hence this is a problem where spatial variation involves and to represent this spatial variation Geographic Information System (GIS) is very useful in decision making about the area subjected to liquefaction. In this paper, GIS software GRAM++ is used to prepare soil liquefaction susceptibility map for entire Mumbai city in India by marking three zones viz. critically liquefiable soil, moderately liquefiable soil and non liquefiable soil. Extensive field borehole test data for groundwater depth, standard penetration test (SPT) blow counts, dry density, wet density and specific gravity, etc. have been collected from different parts of Mumbai. Simplified procedure of Youd et al. (2001) is used for calculation of factor of safety against soil liquefaction potential. Mumbai city and suburban area are formed by reclaiming lands around seven islands since 1865 till current date and still it is progressing in the area such as Navi Mumbai and beyond Borivali to Mira road suburban area. The factors of safety against soil liquefaction were determined for earthquake moment magnitude ranging from M_w = 5.0 to 7.5. It is found that the areas like Borivali, Malad, Dahisar, Bhandup may prone to liquefaction for earthquake moment magnitude ranging from M_w = 5.0 to 7.5. The liquefaction susceptibility maps were created by using GRAM++ by showing the areas where the factor of safety against the soil liquefaction is less than one. Proposed liquefaction susceptibility map of Mumbai city can be used by researchers for earthquake hazard analysis, for the preventive measures in disaster management, for urban planning and further development of Mumbai city and suburban area.     

Artificial earthquake test of gas supply networks

In this paper, seismic behavior of gas supply networks is investigated by constructing a 24 m×24 m buried network and conducting an artificial earthquake test by detonating TNT explosives. The pipe network consists of typical welded steel pipes used in gas supply networks. Ground motion is produced by detonating 30 kg of TNT explosives buried 5 m below ground surface and 15 m away from the network. The test preparations are presented, including site selection, network layout, ground motion generation, and arrangements of different sensors. The measured ground acceleration, strain, and acceleration of welded steel pipes, and pipe–soil relative slippage are discussed. The deformation patterns of welded steel pipes are also analyzed and explained, including axial and bending deformations, systematic network characteristics, deformation relationship between ground and pipes, and dynamic response of buried pipes.     

Correlations between electrical and elastic properties of solid–liquid composites with interfacial energy-controlled equilibrium microstructures

Electrical conductivity and seismic velocity are studied for plausible pore geometries in the Earth's interior for reliable quantitative analysis of experimental data such as seismic tomography and magnetotelluric explorations. Electrical conductivity of a two-phase system with equilibrium, interfacial energy-controlled phase geometry is calculated for the dihedral angles θ = 40°–100° that are typical for rock–aqueous fluid and θ = 20°–60° for rock–melt systems of lower crust and upper mantle for the case of tetrakaidecahedral grains. Electrical conductivity vs. seismic velocity correlations are acquired by combining of the simulated electrical conductivities with the seismic velocity calculated with the help of equilibrium geometry model Takei [Takei, Y., Effect of pore geometry on V_P/V_S: From equilibrium geometry to crack. J. Geophys. Res. 107 (2002): 10.1029/2001JB000522.] for the same pore geometries. The results show that electrical conductivity gradually decreases reaching zero when seismic velocities reach seismic velocities of intact rock for rock–melt systems, while for rock–aqueous fluid systems with θ ≥ 60° conductivity drops to zero at velocities up to 10% smaller. This can explain the seeming discrepancy of the low seismic velocity region, attributed to the high fluid fraction, and the low electrical conductivity of the same region, which is sometimes faced at collocated electromagnetic and seismic experiments.     

Hybrid foundation for offshore wind turbines: Environmental and seismic loading

A hybrid foundation for offshore wind turbines (OWT) is studied, combining a monopile of diameter d and length L with a lightweight circular footing of diameter D. The footing is composed of steel plates and stiffeners forming compartments, backfilled to increase the vertical load. A special pile–footing connection is outlined, allowing transfer of lateral loads and moments, but not of vertical loads. The efficiency of the hybrid foundation is explored through 3D finite element modelling. Hybrid foundations of L=15 m are comparatively assessed to an L=30 m reference monopile. A detailed comparison is performed focusing on a 3.5 MW OWT. While the moment capacity of the monopile is larger, the hybrid foundation exhibits stiffer response, outperforming the monopile in the operational loading range. Under cyclic loading, the hybrid foundation experiences less stiffness degradation and rotation accumulation. Besides installation, the cost savings depend on the design of the footing and buckling can be crucial. The rubble fill is shown to provide lateral restraint to the stiffeners, being beneficial for buckling prevention. Although seismic shaking is not critical in terms of capacity, it may lead to substantial accumulation of rotation and settlement. Combined with cyclic environmental loading, the latter may challenge the serviceability of the OWT, potentially leading to a reduction of its service life. To derive insights on the effect of seismic loading, two scenarios are investigated: (a) seismic loading; and (b) combined environmental and seismic loading. In the first case, even a D=15 m hybrid foundation may outperform the reference monopile. This is not the case for combined environmental and seismic loading, where a D=20 m hybrid system would be required to outperform the reference monopile.     

Elasticity of antigorite,seismic detection of serpentinites,and anisotropy in subduction zones

Serpentinization of the mantle wedge is an important process that influences the seismic and mechanical properties in subduction zones. Seismic detection of serpentines relies on the knowledge of elastic properties of serpentinites, which thus far has not been possible in the absence of single-crystal elastic properties of antigorite. The elastic constants of antigorite, the dominant serpentine at high-pressure in subduction zones, were measured using Brillouin spectroscopy under ambient conditions. In addition, antigorite lattice preferred orientations (LPO) were determined using an electron back-scattering diffraction (EBSD) technique. Isotropic aggregate velocities are significantly lower than those of peridotites to allow seismic detection of serpentinites from tomography. The isotropic V_P/V_S ratio is 1.76 in the Voigt–Reuss–Hill average, not very different from that of 1.73 in peridotite, but may vary between 1.70 and 1.86 between the Voigt and Reuss bonds. Antigorite and deformed serpentinites have a very high seismic anisotropy and remarkably low velocities along particular directions. V_P varies between 8.9 km s^? 1 and 5.6 km s^? 1 (46% anisotropy), and 8.3 km s^? 1 and 5.8 km s^? 1 (37%), and V_S between 5.1 km s^? 1 and 2.5 km s^? 1 (66%), and 4.7 km s^? 1 and 2.9 km s^? 1 (50%) for the single-crystal and aggregate, respectively. The V_P/V_S ratio and shear wave splitting also vary with orientation between 1.2 and 3.4, and 1.3 and 2.8 for the single-crystal and aggregate, respectively. Thus deformed serpentinites can present seismic velocities similar to peridotites for wave propagation parallel to the foliation or lower than crustal rocks for wave propagation perpendicular to the foliation. These properties can be used to detect serpentinite, quantify the amount of serpentinization, and to discuss relationships between seismic anisotropy and deformation in the mantle wedge. Regions of high V_P/V_S ratios and extremely low velocities in the mantle wedge of subduction zones (down to about 6 and 3 km.s^?1 for V_P and V_S, respectively) are difficult to explain without strong preferred orientation of serpentine. Local variations of anisotropy may result from kilometer-scale folding of serpentinites. Shear wave splittings up to 1–1.5 s can be explained with moderately thick (10–20 km) serpentinite bodies.     

Temporal and spatial variations of seismicity scaling behavior in Southern México

R/S analysis is used in this work to investigate the fractal correlations in terms of the Hurst exponent for the 1998–2011 seismicity data in Southern Mexico. This region is the most seismically active area in Mexico, where epicenters for severe earthquakes (e.g., September 19, 1985, M_w = 8.1) causing extensive damage in highly populated areas have been located. By only considering the seismic events that meet the Gutenberg–Ritcher law completeness requirement (b = 0.97, M_GR = 3.6), we found time clustering for scales of about 100 and 135 events. In both cases, a cyclic behavior with dominant spectral components at about one cycle per year is revealed. It is argued that such a one-year cycle could be related to tidal effects in the Pacific coast. Interestingly, it is also found that high-magnitude events (M_w ≥ 6.0) are more likely to occur under increased interevent correlations with Hurst exponent values H > 0.65. This suggests that major earthquakes can occur when the tectonic stress accumulates in preferential directions. In contrast, the high-magnitude seismic risk is reduced when stresses are uniformly distributed in the tectonic shell. Such cointegration between correlations (i.e., Hurst exponent) and macroseismicity is confirmed for spatial variations of the Hurst exponent. In this way, we found that, using the Hurst exponent standpoint, the former presumed Michoacan and the Guerrero seismic gaps are the riskiest seismic zones. To test this empirical finding, two Southern Mexico local regions with large earthquakes were considered. These are the Atoyac de Alvarez, Guerrero (M_w = 6.3), and Union Hidalgo, Oaxaca (M_w = 6.6), events. In addition, we used the Loma Prieta, California, earthquake (October 17, 1989, M_w = 6.9) to show that the high-magnitude earthquakes in the San Andreas Fault region can also be linked to the increments of determinism (quantified in terms of the Hurst exponent) displayed by the stochastic dynamics of the interevent period time series. The results revealed that the analysis of seismic activity by means of R/S analysis could provide further insights in the advent of major earthquakes.     

Source parameters and stress release of seismic sequences occurred in the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region (Northeastern Italy) and in Western Slovenia

The source parameters of the major events of a swarm and of two seismic sequences, occurred in the Friuli area (Northeastern Italy) and in Western Slovenia, were estimated. The Claut swarm (C96) occurred since the end of January to June 1996, with a M_D 4.3 major shock and it appears composed of three sub-sequences. The two sequences are the Kobarid sequence (K98) started on April 12, 1998 with a M_D 5.6 mainshock and the M.te Sernio (S02) sequence caused by the February 14, 2002 earthquake (M_D = 4.9). Acceleration and velocity data recorded by the local seismic network of the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimenale (OGS) and corrected for attenuation, were employed to estimate seismic moments and radiated energies. Source dimensions were inferred from the computed corner frequencies and the stress release was estimated from the Brune stress drop, the apparent stress and the RMS stress drop. On the whole, seismic moments range from 1.7 × 10¹² to 1.1 × 10¹⁷ N m, and radiated energies are in the range 10⁶–10¹³ J. Brune stress drops are scattered and do not show any evidence of a self-similarity breakdown for sources down to 130 m radius. The radiated seismic energy scales as a function of seismic moment, with a slope of the scaling relation that decreases for increasing seismic moments.The mechanism of stress release was analyzed by computing the ɛ parameter of Zuniga [Zuniga, R., 1993. Frictional overshoot and partial stress drop. Which one? Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 83, 939–944]. The K98 and S02 sequences are characterized by a wide range of the ɛ parameter with stress drop mechanism varying from partial locking to overshoot cases. The ɛ values of the C96 swarm are more homogeneous and close to the Orowan's condition. The radiated seismic energy and the ratio of stress drop between mainshock and aftershocks appear different among the analyzed cases. We therefore investigated the relationship between the stress parameters of the main shock and the energy radiated by the aftershock sequences. For this purpose, we also estimated the source parameters of two other sequences occurred in the area, with mainshocks of M_D 4.1 and 5.1, respectively. We found a positive correlation between the Brune stress drop of the mainshock and the ratio between the radiated energy of the mainshock and the summation of the energies radiated by the aftershocks.     

Liquefaction assessment of cohesionless soils in the vicinity of large embankments

In a typical seismic dam safety evaluation, standard penetration, cone penetration, Becker penetration, or shear wave velocity (V_s) tests are often first conducted near the toe of an earth dam to infer if any liquefiable soil exists in the foundation of the dam footprint. In current practice, a level-ground condition is commonly assumed when normalizing penetration resistance and V_s, and may be assumed (particularly in preliminary assessments) in applying the cyclic stress method (with or without the K_α correction) to evaluate liquefaction. However, the presence of an earth dam, or any other large embankment or structure, significantly alters the normal and shear stresses in the foundation. This paper identifies and quantifies potential errors in ignoring altered stresses near heavy structures, and presents a methodology to incorporate these effects within the framework of the simplified procedure. Specifically, the effects of these altered stresses (in comparison to the level-ground assumption with and without K_α correction) on the: (1) normalization of field measurements such as penetration resistance and V_s; (2) cyclic stress ratio (CSR); (3) cyclic resistance ratio (CRR); and (4) factor of safety against liquefaction triggering (FS_liq), are evaluated by considering static and dynamic analyses of a generic earthen embankment (60 m high) resting on a saturated, cohesionless foundation (30 m deep). Our analyses indicated that ignoring the presence of induced static shear stresses can result in potentially unconservative errors in overburden correction factors of 30% to 60% at shallow depth (although this error is greatly muted at depths exceeding about 15 m), while errors in CSR potentially can range from about 20% too conservative to 40% unconservative. Potential errors in CRR can approach 50% unconservative at shallow depths, but again, this error is muted at depths exceeding about 15 m. Combining these factors, potentially unconservative errors in computing FS_liq could exceed 100% at shallow depths (less than 15 m to 20 m) while at greater depth (exceeding 20 m) errors approach 20% on the conservative side.     

Evaluation of SMOS soil moisture retrievals over the central United States for hydro-meteorological application

Soil moisture has been widely recognized as a key variable in hydro-meteorological processes and plays an important role in hydrological modelling. Remote sensing techniques have improved the availability of soil moisture data, however, most previous studies have only focused on the evaluation of retrieved data against point-based observations using only one overpass (i.e., the ascending orbit). Recently, the global Level-3 soil moisture dataset generated from Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) observations was released by the Barcelona Expert Center. To address the aforementioned issues, this study is particularly focused on a basin scale evaluation in which the soil moisture deficit is derived from a three-layer Xinanjiang model used as a hydrological benchmark for all comparisons. In addition, both ascending and descending overpasses were analyzed for a more comprehensive comparison. It was interesting to find that the SMOS soil moisture accuracy did not improve with time as we would have expected. Furthermore, none of the overpasses provided reliable soil moisture estimates during the frozen season, especially for the ascending orbit. When frozen periods were removed, both overpasses showed significant improvements (i.e., the correlations increased from r = −0.53 to r = −0.65 and from r = −0.62 to r = −0.70 for the ascending and descending overpasses, respectively). In addition, it was noted that the SMOS retrievals from the descending overpass consistently were approximately 11.7% wetter than the ascending retrievals by volume. The overall assessment demonstrated that the descending orbit outperformed the ascending orbit, which was unexpected and enriched our knowledge in this area. Finally, the potential reasons were discussed.     

Patterns of significant seismic quiescence on the Mexican Pacific coast

Many authors have proposed that the study of seismicity rates is an appropriate technique for evaluating how close a seismic gap may be to rupture. We designed an algorithm for identification of patterns of significant seismic quiescence by using the definition of seismic quiescence proposed by Schreider (1990). This algorithm shows the area of quiescence where an earthquake of great magnitude may probably occur. We have applied our algorithm to the earthquake catalog on the Mexican Pacific coast located between 14 and 21 degrees of North latitude and 94 and 106 degrees West longitude; with depths less than or equal to 60 km and magnitude greater than or equal to 4.3, which occurred from January, 1965 until December, 2014. We have found significant patterns of seismic quietude before the earthquakes of Oaxaca (November 1978, M_w = 7.8), Petatlán (March 1979, M_w = 7.6), Michoacán (September 1985, M_w = 8.0, and M_w = 7.6) and Colima (October 1995, M_w = 8.0). Fortunately, in this century earthquakes of great magnitude have not occurred in Mexico. However, we have identified well-defined seismic quiescences in the Guerrero seismic-gap, which are apparently correlated with the occurrence of silent earthquakes in 2002, 2006 and 2010 recently discovered by GPS technology.     

Methodology for estimating seismic coefficients for performance-based design of earthdams and tall embankments

Following an overview of pertinent literature, this paper presents a new methodology for estimating seismic coefficients for the performance-based design of earth dams and tall embankments. The methodology is based on statistical regression of (decoupled) numerical data for 1084 potential sliding masses, originating from 110 non-linear seismic response analyses of 2D cross sections with height ranging from 20 to 120 m. At first, the methodology estimates the peak value of the seismic coefficient k_hmax as a function of: the peak ground acceleration at the free field, the predominant period of the seismic excitation, the non-linear fundamental period of dam vibration, the stiffness of the firm foundation soil or rock layer, as well as the geometrical characteristics and the location (upstream or downstream) of the potentially sliding mass. Then, it proceeds to the estimation of an effective value of the seismic coefficient k_hE, as a percentile of k_hmax, to be used with a requirement for pseudo-static factor of safety greater or equal to 1.0. The estimation of k_hE is based on allowable permanent down-slope deviatoric displacement and a conservative consideration of sliding block analysis.