Earthquake shaking scenarios for the metropolitan area of Lisbon

In this study, we simulate and compare ground motion shaking in the city of Lisbon and surrounding counties (metropolitan area of Lisbon (MAL)), using two possible earthquake models: the onshore source area of Lower Tagus Valley, M5.7 and M4.7 and the offshore source area, Marques de Pombal Fault, M7.6, one of the possible source of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake. The stochastic and a new hybrid stochastic-deterministic approach (DSM) are used in order to evaluate the ground shaking and to characterize its spatial variability. Results are presented in terms of response acceleration spectra (PSA) and peak ground acceleration (PGA) with respect to bedrock and surface. Site effects are evaluated by means of equivalent stochastic non-linear one-dimensional ground responses analysis, performed for a set of stratified soil profile units properly designed to cope with the soil site conditions of MAL region. A sensitive study is carried out using different input parameters and different approaches in order to give the basic information to evaluate the range of uncertainty in seismic scenarios.     

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for India—a preventive tool for disaster mitigation

Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic wave generation and propagation processes allow for reliable numerical and analytical models of waveform generation and propagation. From the simulation of ground motion, it is easy to extract the desired earthquake hazard parameters. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), which allows for a wide range of possible seismic sources to be used in the definition of reliable scenarios by means of realistic waveforms modelling. Such reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected earthquake ground motion is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003) published the first ever neo-deterministic seismic hazard map of India by computing synthetic seismograms with input data set consisting of structural models, seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and earthquake catalogues. As described in Panza et al. (Adv Geophys 53:93–165, 2012), the NDSHA methodology evolved with respect to the original formulation used by Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003): the computer codes were improved to better fit the need of producing realistic ground shaking maps and ground shaking scenarios, at different scale levels, exploiting the most significant pertinent progresses in data acquisition and modelling. Accordingly, the present study supplies a revised NDSHA map for India. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (Dmax), maximum velocity (Vmax) and design ground acceleration (DGA), has been extracted from the synthetic signals and mapped on a regular grid over the studied territory.     

Shaking hazard compatible methodology for probabilistic assessment of permanent ground displacement across earthquake faults

A methodology for probabilistic hazard assessment of permanent displacement across faults caused by earthquake rupture is presented, compatible with region specific models for ground shaking hazard in California, developed earlier by the authors and coworkers. Assessment of permanent dislocations across faults is important for the design and retrofit of highway bridges and tunnels crossing faults, as well as for other lifelines crossing faults, such as aqueducts, water and gas lines, etc. The methodology is illustrated for two strike-slip faults (prototypes of Class A and Class B faults in California), for 50 years exposure. The illustrations show that, for given seismic moment rate, the hazard estimates are quite sensitive to how the seismic moment is distributed over earthquake magnitudes. They also show that the hazard is small even for very small levels of displacement, in contrast to ground shaking hazard, which is due to the fact that only one fault contributes to the hazard and not every event on that fault necessarily affects the site.     

Integration of 3D large‐scale earthquake simulations into the assessment of the seismic risk of Bogota,Colombia

Bogotá, the capital city of Colombia, is mostly located on a lacustrine soil deposit surrounded by hills in a central plateau of the eastern cordillera of the Colombian Andes. This highly populated urban area is exposed to a significant seismic hazard from local and regional fault systems. In addition, the potential ground motion amplification during earthquakes due to the presence of soft soil deposits, along with the effects of the surface and subsurface topography, can strongly influence the seismic hazard and consequently the seismic risk to the city. This study aims to develop a physics‐based framework to generate synthetic ground records that can help better understand the seismic response of the basin and other amplification effects during strong earthquake shaking in the region, and to incorporate these effects into the estimation of seismic risk. To this end, a set of simulations were first conducted on Hercules, the wave propagation octree‐based finite element simulator developed by the Quake Group at Carnegie Mellon University, to identify the impacts of hypothetical strong earthquakes scenarios. Then, the results from these simulations were integrated with the exposure and vulnerability information previously developed for the main building constructions in the city to assess the seismic risk in the region under different conditions of analysis. Results from this more detailed model are compared with previously published results from simplified models. Sensitivity analyses help identify critical aspects that should be considered in the future to improve the seismic risk assessment of infrastructure.     

地震波参数对柱顶隔震体系的水平向减震性能影响研究

为了研究地震波参数对柱顶隔震体系的水平向减震性能的影响,选取台湾集集地震中8条地震波作为输入,进行了柱顶隔震体系模型的振动台试验。分析了柱顶隔震体系的水平向动力响应特点,研究了地震波的PGV/PGA、卓越周期、平均周期和断层距及幅值对其水平向减震性能的影响,并进行了数值模拟的对比分析。结果表明:柱顶隔震体系的水平向减震性能良好。相同地震强度下地震波参数的PGV/PGA、卓越周期、平均周期和断层距对柱顶隔震体系水平向减震性能的影响明显,其中:PGV/PGA的影响程度最大,可以作为主要的分析指标;随着地震动强度的增大柱顶隔震体系的水平向减震效果更加明显,地震动强度达到一定幅值后,减震率缓慢下降;与远场地震相比,近场地震不利于柱顶隔震体系的水平向减震性能的发挥,脉冲型近场地震作用下其减震效果更差。振动台试验结果与数值模拟结果基本一致,表明分析结果的可靠性。     

Seismic response analysis of multidrum classical columns

This paper presents a numerical investigation on the seismic response of multidrum classical columns. The motivation for this study originates from the need to understand: (a) the level of ground shaking that classical multidrum columns can survive, and (b) the possible advantages or disadvantages of retrofitting multidrum columns with metallic shear links that replace the wooden poles that were installed in ancient times. The numerical study presented in this paper is conducted with the commercially available software Working Model 2D?, which can capture with fidelity the sliding, rocking, and slide‐rocking response of rigid‐body assemblies. This paper validates the software Working Model by comparing selected computed responses with scarce analytical solutions and the results from in‐house numerical codes initially developed at the University of California, Berkeley, to study the seismic response of electrical transformers and heavy laboratory equipment. The study reveals that relative sliding between drums happens even when the g‐value of the ground acceleration is less than the coefficient of friction, µ, of the sliding interfaces and concludes that: (a) typical multidrum classical columns can survive the ground shaking from strong ground motions recorded near the causative faults of earthquakes with magnitudes M_w=6.0–7.4; (b) in most cases multidrum classical columns free to dislocate at the drum interfaces exhibit more controlled seismic response than the monolithic columns with same size and slenderness; (c) the shear strength of the wooden poles has a marginal effect on the sliding response of the drums; and (d) stiff metallic shear links in‐between column drums may have an undesirable role on the seismic stability of classical columns and should be avoided. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Collapse behavior of a brick masonry house using a shaking table and numerical simulation based on the extended distinct element method

Damage caused by devastating earthquakes has occurred in many developing countries. In order to mitigate such damage by promoting the study of adequate seismic design strategies, the authors conducted a dynamic collapse test on 3 m × 3 m × 3 m brick masonry house constructed with Pakistani bricks, using a one-direction horizontal large-scale shaking table. In order to analyze and simulate seismic performance of the masonry structures, the authors applied a new numerical simulating method based on the Extended Distinct Element Method (EDEM) and conducted collapse simulations of the brick masonry house behavior during the shaking table tests. In the numerical simulation model, bricks were assumed to be rigid bodies, and mortar was modeled using a mortar spring that consists of a normal spring and a shear spring. The parameters of each mortar spring were defined based on the results of material tests. Simulated results showed various collapsing processes, and the simulated aspects were found to be similar to the results of the shaking table tests.     

Seismic responses of bridges with rocking column-foundation: A dimensionless regression analysis

Rocking column-foundation system is a new design concept for bridges that can reduce overall seismic damage, minimize construction and repair time, and achieve lower cost in general. However, such system involves complex dynamic responses due to impacts and highly nonlinear rocking behavior. This study presents a dimensionless regression analysis to estimate the rocking and shaking responses of the flexible column-foundation system under near-fault ground motions. First, the transient drift and rocking responses of the system are solved numerically using previously established analytical models. Subsequently, the peak column drifts and uplift angles are derived as functions of ground motion characteristics and the geometric and dynamic parameters of column-foundation system in regressed dimensionless forms. The proposed response models are further examined by validating against the numerical simulations for several as-built bridge cases. It is shown that the proposed model not only physically quantifies the influences of prominent parameters, but also consistently reflects the complex dynamics of the system. The seismic demands of rocking column-foundation system can be realistically predicted directly from structural and ground motion characteristics. This can significantly benefit the design of bridges incorporating this new design concept.     

考虑地形起伏和障碍体破裂的汶川地震强地面运动数值模拟

2008年5月12日四川汶川地区发生M_W7.9地震,震中位置103.4°E,31.06°N.这次地震造成了以汶川、映秀为中心及其周边地域建筑物的严重破坏和人员的重大伤亡,且因为高山等地形复杂区域抢险救灾的艰巨性,为及时救援造成很大干扰.为更好理解地形因素对于强地面数值模拟结果的影响,建立了包含地形起伏影响及去除地形影响的两类模型.同时,依据震源破裂过程运动学反演结果,建立了包含障碍体破裂过程的震源滑动模型,实现断层分段、空间倾角以及滑移角的动态设定.基于动力学的地震动模拟方法,通过对地震波传播过程的数值计算和后处理分析,模拟由地震激发的区域强地面运动过程.结果显示：（1）强震动台站的断层距对地形效应具有放大或抑制作用,距离断层破裂带越近,地形效应越明显,反之,距离越远,则地形效应越微弱;（2）因为地形高差与障碍体的影响,地震造成的峰值可能出现在震中区域之外;（3）考虑地形影响模型的地表峰值速度（PGV）区域位于汶川与北川附近;而未考虑地形影响模型的PGV区域位于灌县—江油断层的后半段,处清平、安县附近;对汶川地震近实时强地面运动波场的模拟、峰值图谱的圈定及未来大地震强地面运动特征的预测都有重要指示意义.     

Experimental seismic investigation of Sefid‐rud concrete buttress dam model on shaking table

Owing to the devastating M7.6 earthquake of 20 June 1990 that occurred in the northern province of Iran, Sefid‐rud concrete buttress dam located near the epicenter was severely shaken. The crack penetrated throughout the dam thickness near slope discontinuity, causing severe leakage, but with no general failure. In this study, nonlinear seismic response of the highest monolith with empty reservoir is investigated experimentally through model testing. A geometric‐scaled model of 1:30 was tested on a shaking table with high‐frequency capability to study dynamic cracking of the model and serve as data for nonlinear computer model calibration. Three construction joints are set up in the model to simulate effects of construction aspects. The experimental results are then compared with smeared crack and damage mechanics finite‐element simulations using nonlinear concrete constitutive models based on fracture mechanics. The crack patterns obtained from numerical models are in good agreement with those obtained from shaking table tests for the case of including construction joint effects and rigid foundation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of structural characterizations on fragility functions of bridges subject to seismic shaking and lateral spreading

This paper evaluates the seismic vulnerability of different classes of typical bridges in California when subjected to seismic shaking or liquefaction-induced lateral spreading. The detailed structural configurations in terms of superstructure type, connection, continuity at support and foundation type, etc. render different damage resistant capability. Six classes of bridges are established based on their anticipated failure mechanisms under earthquake shaking. The numerical models that are capable of simulating the complex soil-structure interaction effects, nonlinear behavior of columns and connections are developed for each bridge class. The dynamic responses are obtained using nonlinear time history analyses for a suite of 250 earthquake motions with increasing intensity. An equivalent static analysis procedure is also implemented to evaluate the vulnerability of the bridges when subjected to liquefaction-induced lateral spreading. Fragility functions for each bridge class are derived and compared for both seismic shaking （based on nonlinear dynamic analyses） and lateral spreading （based on equivalent static analyses） for different performance states. The study finds that the fragility functions due to either ground shaking or lateral spreading show significant correlation with the structural characterizations, but differences emerge for ground shaking and lateral spreading conditions. Structural properties that will mostly affect the bridges＇ damage resistant capacity are also identified.     

Realistic Modeling of Seismic Input in Urban Areas: A UNESCO-IUGS-IGCP Project

—?The estimation of realistic seismic input can be obtained from the computation of a wide set of time histories and spectral information, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios for different source and structural models. Such a data set can be very constructively used by civil engineers in the design of new seismo-resistant structures and in the reinforcement of the existing built environment, therefore supplying a particularly powerful tool to the prevention efforts of Civil Defense. The availability of realistic numerical simulations enables us to estimate the amplification effects in complex geological structures exploiting the available geotechnical, lithological, geophysical parameters, topography of the medium, tectonic, historical, paleoseismological data, and seismotectonic models. The realistic modeling of the ground motion is a very important source of knowledge for the preparation of groundshaking scenarios which represent a valid and economical tool in seismic microzonation.     

The effect of glaciation on the intensity of seismic ground motion

Seismicity is known to contribute to landscape denudation through its role in earthquake‐triggered slope failure; but little is known about how the intensity of seismic ground motions, and therefore triggering of slope failures, may change through time. Topography influences the intensity of seismic shaking – generally steep slopes amplify shaking more than flatter slopes – and because glacial erosion typically steepens and enlarges slopes, glaciation may increase the intensity of seismic shaking of some landforms. However, the effect of this may be limited until after glaciers retreat because valley ice or ice‐caps may damp seismic ground motions. Two‐dimensional numerical models (FLAC 6.0) were used to explore how edifice shape, rock stiffness and various levels of ice inundation affect edifice shaking intensity. The modelling confirmed that earthquake shaking is enhanced with steeper topography and at ridge crests but it showed for the first time that total inundation by ice may reduce shaking intensity at hill crests to about 20–50% of that experienced when no ice is present. The effect is diminished to about 80–95% if glacier ice level reduces to half of the mountain slope height. In general, ice cover reduced shaking most for the steepest‐sided edifices, for wave frequencies higher than 3 Hz, and when ice was thickest and the rock had shear stiffness well in excess of the stiffness of ice. If rock stiffness is low and shear‐wave velocity is similar to that of ice, the presence of ice may amplify the shaking of rock protruding above the ice surface. The modelling supports the idea that topographic amplification of earthquake shaking increases as a result of glacial erosion and deglaciation. It is possible that the effect of this is sufficient to have influenced the distribution of post‐glacial slope failures in glaciated seismically active areas. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Empirical nonergodic shaking scenarios based on spatial correlation models: An application to central Italy

This paper provides a new methodological framework to generate empirical ground shaking scenarios, designed for engineering applications and civil protection planning. The methodology is useful both to reconstruct the ground motion pattern of past events and to generate future shaking scenarios, in regions where strong‐motion datasets from multiple events and multiple stations are available. The proposed methodology combines (1) an ad‐hoc nonergodic ground motion model (GMM) with (2) a spatial correlation model for the source region‐, site‐, and path‐systematic residual terms, and (3) a model of the remaining aleatory error to take into account for directivity effects. The associated variability is a function of the type of scenario generated (bedrock or site, past or future event) and it is minimal for source areas where several events have occurred and for sites where recordings are available. In order to develop the region‐specific fully nonergodic GMM and to compute robust estimation of the residual terms, the approach is calibrated on a highly dense dataset compiled for the area of central Italy. Example tests demonstrate the validity of the approach, which allows to simulate acceleration response spectra at unsampled sites, as well as to capture peculiar physical features of ground motion patterns in the region. The proposed approach could be usefully adopted for data‐driven simulations of ground shaking maps, as alternative or complementary tool to physic‐based and stochastic‐based approaches.     

Pile response in submerged lateral spreads: Common pitfalls of numerical and physical modeling techniques

A three dimensional dynamic numerical methodology is developed and used to back-analyze experimental data on the seismic response of single piles in laterally spreading slopes. The aim of the paper is not to seek successful a-priori (Type A) predictions, but to explore the potential of currently available numerical techniques, and also to get feedback on modeling issues and assumptions which are not yet resolved in the international literature. It is illustrated that accurate simulation of the physical pile–soil interaction mechanisms is not a routine task, as it requires the incorporation of advanced numerical features, such as an effective stress constitutive soil model that can capture cyclic response and shear-induced dilation, interface elements to simulate the flow of liquefied ground around the pile and proper calibration of soil permeability to model excess pore pressure dissipation during shaking. In addition, the “conventional tied node” formulation, commonly used to simulate lateral boundary conditions during shaking, has to be modified in order to take into account the effects of the hydrostatic pore pressure surplus that is created at the down slope free field boundary of submerged slopes. A comparative analysis with the two different lateral boundary formulations reveals that “conventional tied nodes”, which also reflect the kinematic conditions imposed by laminar box containers in centrifuge and shaking table experiments, may underestimate seismic demands along the upper part of the pile foundation.     

A time-domain nonlinear effective-stress non-Masing approach of ground response analysis of Guwahati city,India

The response of subsoil strata subjected to seismic excitations plays an important role in governing the response of the overlying superstructures at any site. Ground response analysis(GRA) helps to assess the influence of soil characteristics on the propagating seismic stress waves from the bedrock level to the ground surface during an earthquake. For the northeastern region of India, located in the highest seismic zone in the country, conducting an extensive GRA study is of prime importance. Conventionally, most of the GRA studies are carried out using the equivalent linear method, which, being a simplistic approach, cannot capture the nonlinear behavior of soil during seismic shaking. This paper presents the outcomes of a one-dimensional effective stress based nonlinear GRA conducted for Guwahati city(located in northeast India) incorporating the non-Masing load/unload/reload characteristics. The various ground response parameters evaluated from this study help in assessing the ground shaking, soil amplification, and site responses expected in this region. 2D contour maps, which are representative of the distribution of some of these parameters throughout Guwahati city, are also developed. The results presented herein can serve as guidelines for the design of foundations and superstructures in this region.     

考虑SSI效应储油罐的子结构实验方法与数值模拟

提出了应用振动台子结构试验方法来研究考虑土-结构相互作用（SSI）效应储罐的抗震性能,该方法将土体简化为双自由度八参量集总参数模型进行模拟,储罐作为试验子结构应用振动台加载,两部分联机完成振动台子结构试验。该方法能完成大比例尺储罐试验,具有传统试验方法难以比拟的优势。然后,通过数值模拟分析了SSI效应对储罐动力响应的影响。分别研究了不同储液高度和不同地基刚度对储罐位移和加速度响应的影响。研究结果表明：考虑SSI效应时,罐体位移响应和加速度响应均有所减小,土质越软,效果越明显;随着储液高度的增高,位移、加速度反应呈现减小趋势。     

Shaking table study and modelling of seismic behaviour of confined AAC masonry buildings

The response of autoclaved aerated concrete confined masonry buildings to seismic ground motion has been studied. Three 1:4 scale models of residential buildings with the same distribution of walls in plan but different types of floors and number of stories have been tested on a uni-directional shaking table. Lightweight prefabricated slabs have been installed in the case of the three-storey model M1, whereas reinforced concrete slabs have been constructed in the case of three-storey model M2 and four-storey model M3. Model M1 was subjected to seismic excitation along the axis of symmetry, whereas models M2 and M3 were tested orthogonal to it. Typical storey mechanism, characterised by diagonal shear failure mode of walls in the ground floor in the direction of excitation has been observed in all cases. Taking into consideration the observed behaviour, a numerical model with concentrated masses and storey hysteretic rules has been used to simulate the observed behaviour. Storey resistance curves calculated by a push-over method and hysteretic rules, which take into account damage and energy based stiffness degradation hysteretic rules, have been used to model the non-linear behaviour of the structure. Good agreement between the experimentally observed and calculated non-linear behaviour has been obtained.     

Shaking Maps for Scenario Earthquakes by Applying the Upgraded Version of the Strong Ground Motion Prediction Method ��Recipe��

The strong ground motion prediction method ??Recipe?? was published by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) of Japan. HERP has applied this method to prepare shaking maps for scenario earthquakes in specific active faults. Recently, Recipe was updated following its verification by simulations of strong ground motions associated with the Mw?=?6.6 off-shore earthquake west of Fukuoka prefecture in 2005, which occurred in the northwest part of the Kego fault zone located in northern Kyushu, Japan. One of the prominent changes in the upgraded version of Recipe is the inclusion of a procedure to evaluate seismic intensities on the ground surface from waveforms of S-wave velocity of 400?m/s on the engineering bedrock. By applying the upgraded version of Recipe, we have made shaking-maps for earthquakes in the southeast part of the Kego fault zone, which is located directly below the mega-city of Fukuoka. We assume four source models for scenario earthquakes; the locations of the asperities and the hypocenters vary between the models. The results show that in all cases, disastrous seismic intensities can strike a wide area of Fukuoka city. Differences in the distributions of seismic intensities among the four cases can be clearly observed in the area located on the extension of the source fault. Furthermore, we construct a velocity-layer structure model on the engineering bedrock for the central area of Fukuoka city. We assess not only the distribution of seismic intensities but also waveforms on the ground by using an equivalent linear method for the central area of Fukuoka city.     

Failure analysis of one-story precast structures for near-fault and far-fault strong ground motions

Failure of one-story precast structures consisting of cantilever columns connected by simply supported beams was widely reported throughout the epicentral regions of the last devastating earthquakes in Turkey. As a single degree of freedom system, precast columns are designed by using the elastic spectrum given in the seismic code and by considering a seismic load reduction factor which takes into account the inelastic behavior of the columns under seismic loads. Although the existing seismic codes consider near-fault shaking effects in the development of elastic response spectra, they do not currently consider the increased inelastic demands that may occur during near-fault ground motion. The current study consists of nonlinear time history analyses of various hypothetical columns having geometric and mass properties which are being used in Turkish precast industry and the evaluation of damage indexes (DI) in terms of peak ground velocity (PGV) and peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the used strong ground motions. It is achieved that near-fault earthquakes create more damages on the columns. This might be one of the main reasons for the collapse of several one-storey precast buildings which were well designed according to the seismic codes in the district of existing faults. The obtained PGV versus DI charts prove that if one increase the sectional dimensions and/or longitudinal reinforcement ratio of the column, the possible damage from near-fault shaking effects could be reduced.