Complex basin development in a wrench-dominated back-arc area: Tectonic evolution of the Crati Basin,Calabria, Italy

Field data and seismic reflection profiles of various resolutions, calibrated by deep well logs, have been used to unravel the tectonic evolution of the Crati Basin (southern Italy). The study area is located in the northern portion of the Calabrian Arc, a well-developed arc-shaped feature of the circum-Mediterranean belts, consisting of a series of ophiolite-bearing tectonic units and overlying basement nappes. NW–SE oriented left-lateral strike-slip faults exerted a major control on the tectonic evolution of northern-central Calabria, from Middle Miocene to Lower Pleistocene times. Such faults, arranged in an en-échelon geometry and dissecting the pre-existing Late Oligocene–Early Miocene orogenic belt, led to a structural setting including major N-S striking synforms – as the offshore Paola Basin and the Crati Basin are interpreted based on our results – separated by a broad antiformal ridge. Since the Middle Pleistocene, both E- and W-dipping normal faults developed in the southernmost sector of the Crati Basin, probably as a consequence of both uplift of the orogenic edifice and Tyrrhenian back-arc extension. The pre-existing regional strike-slip faults became inactive in this sector of the belt. However, working as persistent barriers, it is envisaged here that they inhibited the southern propagation of the newly formed normal faults, which therefore propagated towards the north. A minimum value of cumulative displacement of ca. 600 m has been unraveled for the central sector of the Crati Basin since Middle Pleistocene times. This yields a vertical strain rate of ca. 0.9 mm/y during the last 700 ka.     

Active tectonics of the outer northern Apennines: Adriatic vs. Po Plain seismicity and stress fields

The recent earthquake sequences of 2012 (northern Italy) and 2013 (Marche offshore) provided new, fundamental constraints to the active tectonic setting of the outer northern Apennines. In contrast to the Po Plain area, where the 2012 northern Italy earthquakes confirmed active frontal thrusting, the new focal mechanisms obtained in this study for the 2013 Marche offshore earthquakes indicate that only minor thrust fault reactivation occurs in the Adriatic domain, even for a theoretically favourably oriented maximum horizontal compression. Recent seismicity in this domain appears to be mainly controlled by transcurrent crustal faults dissecting the Apennine thrust belt. The along-strike stress field variation from the Po Plain to the Adriatic area has been quantitatively investigated by applying the multiple inverse method (MIM) to the analysis of the entire seismicity recorded from January 1976 to August 2014, from the top 12 km of the crust (fault plane solutions from 127 earthquakes with M_W ≥ 4), allowing us to obtain a comprehensive picture of the state of stress over the outer zone of the fold and thrust belt. The present-day stress field has been defined for 39 cells of 1.5° × 1.5° surface area and 12 km depth. The obtained stress field maps point out that, although the entire outer northern Apennines belt is characterized by a sub-horizontal maximum compressive axis (σ₁), the minimum compression (σ₃) is sub-vertical only in the Po Plain area, becoming sub-horizontal in the Adriatic sector, thus confirming that the latter region is dominated by an active tectonic regime of strike-slip type.     

Safety of Italian dams in the face of flood hazard

Most rivers in Italy are segmented by dams that need rehabilitation because of (1) safety requirements by increasingly risk-averse societies, (2) changes in the downstream river and riparian system after dams building, (3) poor initial design at the time of completion and (4) modified priorities of watershed management. Safe design of flood spillways is a major concern, and requires to cope with low frequency flood hazard. One must estimate flood figures with high return periods (R ⩾ 1000–10,000 years) but statistical methods involve large uncertainties because of the short length of the available records. This paper investigates the return period of the design flood of existing spillways R_S of large dams in Italy. We used re-normalized flood frequency approach and regionalization using the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. The estimation of the site specific index flood is carried out by simple scaling with basin area at the regional level. The result show that 55% (245) of the 448 examined dams are equipped by spillway with R_S > 10,000; and 71% (315) of the dams have R_S > 1000. Conversely, 29% (130) of the dams display R_S < 1000 years, lower than acceptable hazard. The spillway of 14% (62) of the dams has R_S < 100 years, indicating potential exceedance of spillways capacity. Reservoir routing may dampen the outflow hydrograph, but one should carefully account for the need of achieving accurate dam safety assessment of these dams based on site specific investigations, also accounting for global change forcing.     

Resistivity imaging of Pleistocene alluvial aquifers in a contractional tectonic setting: A case history from the Po plain (Northern Italy)

In this work we present the hydrogeophysical imaging of a key sector of the Quaternary Po foreland basin (northern Italy), focussing on the reconstruction of clastic aquifers and aquitards in a complex tectono-sedimentary subsurface architecture. The study area includes the relic reliefs of Casalpusterlengo and Zorlesco, two smooth morphological features involving uplifted and gently folded Pleistocene marine to alluvial sediments, plausibly linked to the buried Northern Apennines thrust and fold belt. The geophysical data include 35 Direct Current Vertical Electrical Soundings collected over a 37 km² wide area, acquired with Schlumberger array and maximum half-spacing of 500 m. 1-D resistivity-depth profiles were computed for each VES. An integrated hydrostratigraphic approach was applied, to constrain the interpretation of the geophysical data along several cross-sections, including the comparison of resistivity soundings to stratigraphic logs, borehole electric logs and the pore-water properties.The resistivity interfaces, traceable with the same laterally continuous vertical polarity, were used to develop an electrostratigraphic model in order to portray the stacking of electrostratigraphic units down to 200 m below ground surface. Their vertical associations show a general upward increase of electrical resistivity. This assemblage mimics the regional coarsening upwards depositional trend, from the conductive units of the Plio-Pleistocene marine-to-transitional depositional systems to the resistive units of the Middle–Late Pleistocene fluvial and alluvial plain depositional systems. Middle Pleistocene depositional systems host an alternation of North-dipping, high-to-intermediate permeability aquifer systems (70–180 Ωm, thickness of 5–70 m) separated by low permeability aquitards (20–50 Ωm, thickness up to 40 m). These units pinch out against the Casalpusterlengo and Zorlesco relic reliefs, where they cover the uplifted and folded regional aquitard (20–50 Ωm) formed by Pliocene-Lower Pleistocene clays to sandy silts with gravel lenses in agreement with borehole data. In the deepest part of the local stratigraphy, a broad low-resistivity anomaly (< 10 Ωm) was clearly mapped through the study area. By comparison with electrical borehole logs in deep oil-wells, it could be interpreted as the fresh–saltwater interface due to the presence of connate waters and brines hosted by the marine-to-transitional shales.     

Recuperated optically stimulated luminescence dating of middle-size quartz grains from the Palaeolithic site of Bonneval (Eure-et-Loir,France)

The site of Bonneval (France) exhibits a 6 m thick stratigraphical sequence in which Middle and Lower Palaeolithic artefacts were discovered. The stratigraphy of the site consists of an alternation of loess-like silt layers deposited along glacial stages, and paleosoil horizons corresponding to the vegetal stabilization of the area during interglacials. These layers hence provide past environmental informations and can be used as stratigraphical markers and compared with well dated sequences of Northern France. Eight sediment samples from this Middle and Upper Pleistocene sequence were dated using the recuperated optically stimulated luminescence (Re-OSL) signal of quartz grains. The middle-size fraction (40–63 μm) shows a good reproducibility of the OSL signals which allows the application of a multiple-aliquot additive-dose approach for D_e determination. For all samples, the growth curves are linear up to an accumulated dose of 3000 Gy. The Re-OSL ages range from ～100 to ～450 ka and are in good agreement with the independent chronological information; they establish when handaxe industries have been made during the Middle and Upper Pleistocene in the Paris Basin.     

Modification of fault slip models of the Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake by far field GPS observations

GPS data from Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) are used to derive far-field co-seismic displacements induced by the M_w 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake. Significant horizontal displacements about 30 mm, 10 mm, and 20 mm were caused by this large event in northeast China, north China, and on the Korean peninsula respectively. Vectors of relatively large horizontal displacements with dominant east components pointed to the epicenter of this earthquake. The east components show an exponential decay with the longitude, which is characteristic of the decay of the co-seismic horizontal displacements associated with earthquakes of thrust rupture. The exponential fit of the east components shows that the influence of the co-seismic displacements can be detected by GPS at a distance of about 3200 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. By considering the capability of the far field displacements for constraining the inversion of the fault slip model of the earthquake, we use spherically stratified Earth models to simulate the co-seismic displacements induced by this event. Using computations and comparisons, we discuss the effects of parameters of layered Earth models on the results of dislocation modeling. Comparisons of the modeled and observed displacements show that far field GPS observations are effective for constraining the fault slip model. The far field horizontal displacements observed by GPS are used to modify the slips and seismic moments of fault slip models. The result of this work is applicable as a reference for other researchers to study seismic source rupture and crustal deformation.     

Dating Holocene lavas on Stromboli,Italy using cosmogenic He

In-situ cosmogenic ³He exposure ages of pyroxene phenocrysts from basalts from the Upper Neostromboli formation in southwest Stromboli date its eruption at 7.0 ± 0.3 ka (1σ, n = 3, Ginostra site) and 6.8 ± 0.2 ka (1σ, n = 10, Timpone del Fuoco site) respectively. Correlation of our new data to previous K/Ar and palaeomagnetic ages from the northwestern Neostromboli phase suggests that it erupted within a confined period between roughly 6 and 14 ka. The low uncertainty on the ³He_cos ages as well as on individual exposure ages (4.4–8.7%) demonstrates that ³He_cos exposure dating is a viable tool for dating Holocene basalt lavas. The ages compare favourably to uncertainties obtained for radiocarbon dating of similar rocks.     

ESR chronology of alluvial deposits and first human settlements of the Middle Loire Basin (Region Centre,France)

Since 1970, many prehistoric sites have been discovered in the alluvial terraces of several rivers of the Middle Loire River basin (France). During the last decade, the stepped-terraces systems of three of the Loire tributaries, the Creuse, the Cher and the Loir Rivers, were the focus of multidisciplinary studies, involving Quaternary geology, prehistory and geochronology. The geochronological data now available for these systems were mainly obtained by electron spin resonance (ESR) method applied to optically bleached fluvial quartz. These results provide a chronological framework for the evolution of fluvial systems and the human settlements of this area during Lower and Middle Pleistocene. Two phases of human settlement could be distinguished, around 1.1 Ma (Early Palaeolithic – Mode 1) and around 0.7 Ma ago (Acheulean – Mode II).     

Primitive neon and helium isotopic compositions of high-MgO basalts from the Kerguelen Archipelago,Indian Ocean

The geochemical characteristics of mildly alkalic basalts (24–25 Ma) erupted in the southeastern Kerguelen Archipelago are considered to represent the best estimate for the composition of the enriched Kerguelen plume end-member. A recent study of picrites and high-MgO basalts from this part of the archipelago highlighted the Pb and Hf isotopic variations and suggested the presence of mantle heterogeneities within the Kerguelen plume itself. We present new helium and neon isotopic compositions for olivines from these picrites and high-MgO basalts (6–17 wt.% MgO) both to constrain the enriched composition of the Kerguelen plume and to determine the origin of isotopic heterogeneities involved in the genesis of Kerguelen plume-related basalts. The olivine phenocrysts have extremely variable ⁴He / ³He compositions between MORB and primitive values observed in OIB (∼90,000 to 40,000; i.e., R / R_a ∼8 to 18) and they show primitive neon isotopic ratios (average ²¹Ne / ²¹Ne_ext ∼0.044). The neon isotopic systematics and the ⁴He / ³He ratios that are lower than MORB values for the Kerguelen basalts clearly suggest that the Kerguelen hotspot belongs to the family of primitive hotspots, such as Iceland and Hawaii. The rare gas signature for the Kerguelen samples, intermediate between MORB and solar, is apparently inconsistent with mixing of a primitive component with a MORB-like source, but may result from sampling a heterogeneous part of the mantle with solar ³He / ²²Ne and with a higher (U, Th) / ³He ratio compared to typically high R / R_a hotspot basalts such as those from Iceland and Hawaii.     

Quartz OSL dating of sand dunes of Late Pleistocene in the Mu Us Desert in northern China

The Mu Us Desert, located in the northwestern fringe of the East Asian monsoon region, is sensitive to climate variability. The desert is characterized by mobile, semi-fixed and fixed sand dunes. Alternating units of dune sands and sandy palaeosols in the Mu Us Desert imply multiple episodes of dune building and stabilization, in response to the ebb and flow of the East Asian monsoon. Desert evolution and climatic change of high-resolution in the Mu Us Desert are still poorly understood due to limited numerical dating results. In the present study, 19 samples collected from five sand dune sections along a northwest–southeast transect in the Mu Us Desert were dated using quartz optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and single aliquot regenerative-dose (SAR) protocol. Internal checks of the OSL dating indicate that the SAR protocol is appropriate for equivalent dose (D_e) determination for the samples under study. Combined with the lithologic stratigraphy and the luminescence chronology, the sand dune development in the Mu Us Desert during the Late Pleistocene is discussed. Our results indicate that the sand was mobilized approximately at 91 ka, 71 ka, 48–22 ka, 5 ka, 1 ka, and 0.44 ka; the sand was fixed approximately at 65 ka and Holocene Optimum period in the interior Mu Us Desert. The Mu Us Desert formed at least before ～144 ka, and has shown increasing aridity in the Late Pleistocene.     

Vertical distribution of HTO and 125I− transport parameters in Boom Clay in the Essen-1 borehole (Mol,Belgium)

In the frame of the R&D activities performed on the Boom Clay for assessing the suitability of deep clayey formations for radioactive waste disposal, the transferability of the scientific results obtained on the Boom Clay in Mol to the whole Campine Basin is investigated. Boreholes were drilled at different locations (e.g. Mol, Doel, Essen) and cores were sampled over the entire thickness of the Boom Clay formation on which the migration parameters for iodide and tritiated water (HTO) are determined.At Essen, the transport parameters in the Boom Clay can be considered as homogeneous in the range from 159 m to 241 m Below Drilling Table. The average hydraulic conductivity is (5.4 ± 1.7) × 10⁻¹² m/s. The average ηR value for iodide is 0.25 ± 0.03 and 0.42 ± 0.05 for HTO. For HTO, this high value is mainly due to a higher value in the Putte Member (0.46 ± 0.03) compared to the other members (0.39 ± 0.02). The apparent diffusion coefficient is (1.3 ± 0.1) × 10⁻¹⁰ m²/s for HTO and (1.1 ± 0.2) × 10⁻¹⁰ m²/s for iodide. The expected effect of ionic strength (increasing with depth) on the ηR value of iodide is of the same size as the measurement error, what might explain why it was not observed.On a lateral (horizontal) level, the hydraulic conductivity at the Essen-1 borehole (5.4 × 10⁻¹² m/s) lies between that of Boom Clay in Mol-1 (2.5 × 10⁻¹² m/s) and that of Boom Clay in Doel-2b (1.4 × 10⁻¹¹ m/s). For iodide, the higher ηR value in Essen-1 and Doel-2b (ηR ≈ 0.25) than in Mol-1 (ηR ≈ 0.16) can partly be explained by a higher ionic strength of the pore water. Apart from the Putte Member at Essen-1, the HTO porosities of the Terhagen Member and the Transition zone in Essen are in the range of the average porosities observed in Mol and Doel (ηR ≈ 0.37–0.39). For both iodide and HTO, the value of the apparent diffusion coefficient D_app is similar in Mol-1 and in Doel-2b, with a clearly higher value for HTO than for iodide. In Essen-1, the apparent diffusion coefficients for iodide and HTO are nearly equal, and slightly smaller than the iodide value in Mol-1/Doel-2b. Accordingly, the HTO apparent diffusion coefficient is considerably smaller in Essen-1 than in Mol-1/Doel-2b.     

Aminostratigraphy of surface and subsurface Quaternary sediments,North Carolina coastal plain,USA

The Quaternary stratigraphy and geochronology of the Albemarle Embayment of the North Carolina (NC) Coastal Plain is examined using amino acid racemization (AAR) in marine mollusks, in combination with geophysical, lithologic, and biostratigraphic analysis of 28 rotasonic cores drilled between 2002 and 2006. The Albemarle Embayment is bounded by structural highs to the north and south, and Quaternary strata thin westward toward the Suffolk paleoshoreline, frequently referred to as the Suffolk Scarp. The Quaternary section is up to ～90 m thick, consists of a variety of estuarine, shelf, back-barrier, and lagoonal deposits, and has been influenced by multiple sea-level cycles. The temporal resolution of the amino acid racemization method is tested statistically and with the stratigraphic control provided by this geologic framework, and it is then applied to the correlation and age estimation of subsurface units throughout the region. Over 500 specimens (primarily Mercenaria and Mulinia) from the subsurface section have been analyzed using either gas chromatographic (GC) or reverse-phase liquid chromatographic (RPLC) techniques. The subsurface stratigraphic data are compared with AAR results from numerous natural or excavated exposures from the surrounding region, as well as results from NC beach collections, to develop a comprehensive aminostratigraphic database for the entire Quaternary record within the NC coastal system. Age mixing, recognized in the beach collections, is also seen in subsurface sections, usually where major seismic reflections or core lithology indicate the presence of stratigraphic discontinuities. Kinetic models for racemization are tested within the regional stratigraphic framework, using either radiocarbon or U-series calibrations or comparison with regional biostratigraphy. Three major Pleistocene aminozones [AZ2, AZ3, and AZ4] are found throughout the region, all being found in superposition in several cores. Each can be subdivided, yielding a total of at least eight stratigraphically and statistically distinct aminozones. Kinetic modeling, supplemented with local calibration, indicates that these aminozones represent depositional events ranging from ～80 ka to nearly 2 Ma. Three prominent seismic reflections are interpreted to represent the base of the early, middle, and late Pleistocene, respectively, roughly 2 Ma, 800 ka, and 130 ka. The large number of samples and the available stratigraphic control provide new insights into the capabilities and limitations of aminostratigraphic methods in assessing relative and numerical ages of Atlantic Coastal Plain Quaternary deposits.     

Drainage migration and out of sequence thrusting in Bhalukpong,Western Arunachal Himalaya,India

In the foreland regions of the Western Arunachal Himalaya (WAH), geological studies along the Kameng river (between Tipi village and the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT)) reveal four levels of unpaired terraces and a paired terrace. In WAH, wrench deformation of HFT zone resulted in a SE propagation of the Balipara anticline and it is suggested that the Mikir high basement controls its orientation. Ages of terrace surfaces from Siwaliks suggest that since the Late Pleistocene, Kameng River migrated at a rate varying between ∼7.5 cm/yr in upper reaches and ∼13.5 cm/yr towards northeast due to HFT related uplift. In the Brahmaputra plains, luminescence ages of abandoned paleochannel deposits suggest eastward shifting of the Kameng river at an average rate of ∼1 m/yr. Field evidences between Bhalukpong and Tipi villages show Pliocene strath and Quaternary terrace surfaces, displaced by faults that do not correspond to the mapped faults in the foreland region. We interpret them as out-of-sequence thrusts (OOSTs). This is the first such report of OOST in the NE Himalaya. Presence of active OOST is inferred by similar age (∼1 ka) and differing incision rates of the surface of same terrace (T_2b) in adjacent locations. This suggests that OOSTs in the western Arunachal Siwalik are <1 ka. Average slip rate and horizontal shortening rate on OOST during the Holocene, are calculated as ∼12 mm/yr and 7 mm/yr respectively. Thus any estimation of Holocene shortening in the Siwalik therefore, needs to incorporate slip along the OOSTs given that it accommodates a significant amount of N-S compression of the Himalayan fold-and-thrust belt. The reason for OOST in the WAH Siwalik foreland is discussed in terms of the critical wedge dynamics arising from erosion via tectonics-climate interaction. We estimate a minimum slip rate of Siwalik as ∼27 mm/yr during the Holocene and suggest acceleration in shortening rates east of Bhutan.     

An evaluation of methods for determining during-storm precipitation phase and the rain/snow transition elevation at the surface in a mountain basin

Determining surface precipitation phase is required to properly correct precipitation gage data for wind effects, to determine the hydrologic response to a precipitation event, and for hydrologic modeling when rain will be treated differently from snow. In this paper we present a comparison of several methods for determining precipitation phase using 12 years of hourly precipitation, weather and snow data from a long-term measurement site at Reynolds Mountain East (RME), a headwater catchment within the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW), in the Owyhee Mountains of Idaho, USA. Methods are based on thresholds of (1) air temperature (T_a) at 0 °C, (2) dual T_a threshold, −1 to 3 °C, (3) dewpoint temperature (T_d) at 0 °C, and (4) wet bulb temperature (T_w) at 0 °C. The comparison shows that at the RME Grove site, the dual threshold approach predicts too much snow, while T_a, T_d and T_w are generally similar predicting equivalent snow volumes over the 12 year-period indicating that during storms the cloud level is at or close to the surface at this location. To scale up the evaluation of these methods we evaluate them across a 380 m elevation range in RCEW during a large mixed-phase storm event. The event began as snow at all elevations and over the course of 4 h transitioned to rain at the lowest through highest elevations. Using 15-minute measurements of precipitation, changes in snow depth (z_s), T_a, T_d and T_w, at seven sites through this elevation range, we found precipitation phase linked to the during-storm surface humidity. By measuring humidity along an elevation gradient during the storm we are able to track changes in T_d to reliably estimate precipitation phase and effectively track the elevation of the rain/snow transition during the event.     

Middle Pleistocene cold stage climates in the Mediterranean: New evidence from the glacial record

A major reduction in summer temperatures during a Middle Pleistocene glacial cycle caused the most extensive glaciation recorded in the Mediterranean region. Glaciers in the mountains of Greece formed during marine isotope stage (MIS) 12 (474 000–427 000 years BP) under climatic conditions characterised by mean summer temperatures at least 11 °C cooler than today and annual precipitation of ≤ 2300 mm at the equilibrium line altitude (1741 m a.s.l.). This represents the coldest mean summer temperatures recorded in Greece during at least the last 430 000 years. Later Pleistocene glaciations (MIS 6 and 5d-2) were characterised by warmer summer temperatures and higher annual precipitation.     

Remote sensing based water quality monitoring in Chivero and Manyame lakes of Zimbabwe

Lakes Chivero and Manyame are amongst Zimbabwe’s most polluted inland water bodies. MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometry level 1b full resolution imagery for 2011 and 2012 were used to derive chlorophyll-a (chl_a) and phycocyanin (blue-green algae) concentrations using a semi-empirical band ratio model; total suspended matter (TSM) concentrations were derived from the MERIS processor. In-situ measured chl_a was used to validate the remotely sensed values. Results indicate that remote sensing measurements are comparable with in situ measurements. A strong positive correlation (R² = 0.91; MAE = 2.75 mg/m³ (8.5%)) and p < 0.01 (highly significant)) between measured and modeled chl_a concentrations was obtained. Relationships between optically active water constituents were assessed. Measured chl_a correlated well with MERIS modeled phycocyanin (PC) concentration (R² = 0.9458; p < 0.01 (highly significant)) whilst chl_a and TSM gave (R² = 0.7344; p < 0.05 (significant)). Modeled TSM and PC concentrations manifested a good relationship with each other (R² = 9047; p < 0.001 (very highly significant)). We conclude that remote sensing data allow simultaneous retrieval of different water quality parameters as well as providing near real time and space results that can be used by water managers and policy makers to monitor water bodies.     

Coda-Q and its lapse time dependence analysis in the interaction zone of the Dinarides,the Alps and the Pannonian basin

The single backscattering model was used to estimate total attenuation of coda waves (Q_c) of local earthquakes recorded on eight seismological stations in the complex area of the western continental Croatia. We estimated Q₀ and n, parameters of the frequency dependent coda-Q using the relation Q_c = Q₀fⁿ. Lapse time dependence of these parameters was studied using a constant 30 s long time window that was slid along the coda of seismograms. Obtained Q_c were distributed into classes according to their lapse time, t_L. For t_L = 20–50 s we estimated Q₀ = 45–184 and n = 0.49–0.94, and for t_L = 60–100 s we obtained Q₀ = 119–316 and n = 0.37–0.82. There is a tendency of decrease of parameter n with increasing Q₀, and vice versa. The rates of change of both Q₀ and n seem to decrease for lapse times larger than 50–80 s, indicating an alteration in rock properties controlling coda attenuation at depths of about 100–160 km. A very good correlation was found between the frequency dependence parameter n and the Moho depths for lapse times of 50, 60 and 70 s.     

Seismic response of deep Quaternary sediments in historical center of L’Aquila City (central Italy)

On 6 April 2009 a M_w=6.1 earthquake produced severe destruction and damage over the historic center of L’Aquila City (central Italy), in which the accelerometer stations AQK and AQU recorded a large amount of near-fault ground motion data. This paper analyzes the recorded ground motions and compares the observed peak accelerations and the horizontal to vertical response spectral ratios with those revealed from numerical simulations. The finite element method is considered herein to perform dynamic modeling on the soil profile underlying the seismic station AQU. The subsurface model, which is based on the reviewed surveys that were carried out in previous studies, consists of 200–400 m of Quaternary sediments overlying a Meso-Cenozoic carbonate bedrock. The Martin-Finn-Seed's pore-water pressure model is used in the simulations. The horizontal to vertical response spectral ratio that is observed during the weak seismic events shows three predominant frequencies at about 14 Hz, 3 Hz and 0.6 Hz, which may be related to the computed seismic motion amplification occurring at the shallow colluvium, at the top and base of the fluvial-lacustrine sequence, respectively. During the 2009 L’Aquila main shock the predominant frequency of 14 Hz shifts to lower values probably due to a peculiar wave-field incidence angle. The predominant frequency of 3 Hz shifts to lower values when the earthquake magnitude increases, which may be associated to the progressive softening of soil due to the excess pore-water pressure generation that reaches a maximum value of about 350 kPa in the top of fluvial-lacustrine sequence. The computed vertical peak acceleration underestimates the experimental value and the horizontal to vertical peak acceleration ratio that is observed at station AQU decreases when the earthquake magnitude increases, which reveals amplification of the vertical component of ground motion probably due to near-source effects.     

Bayesian analysis on earthquake magnitude related to an active fault in Taiwan

It is understood that sample size could be an issue in earthquake statistical studies, causing the best estimate being too deterministic or less representative derived from limited statistics from observation. Like many Bayesian analyses and estimates, this study shows another novel application of the Bayesian approach to earthquake engineering, using prior data to help compensate the limited observation for the target problem to estimate the magnitude of the recurring Meishan earthquake in central Taiwan. With the Bayesian algorithms developed, the Bayesian analysis suggests that the next major event induced by the Meishan fault in central Taiwan should be in M_w 6.44±0.33, based on one magnitude observation of M_w 6.4 from the last event, along with the prior data including fault length of 14 km, rupture width of 15 km, rupture area of 216 km², average displacement of 0.7 m, slip rate of 6 mm/yr, and five earthquake empirical models.