Groundwater remediation: the next 30 years

Groundwater remediation technologies are designed, installed, and operated based on the conceptual models of contaminant hydrogeology that are accepted at that time. However, conceptual models of remediation can change as new research, new technologies, and new performance data become available. Over the past few years, results from multiple-site remediation performance studies have shown that achieving drinking water standards (i.e., Maximum Contaminant Levels, MCLs) at contaminated groundwater sites is very difficult. Recent groundwater research has shown that the process of matrix diffusion is one key constraint. New developments, such as mass discharge, orders of magnitude (OoMs), and SMART objectives are now being discussed more frequently by the groundwater remediation community. In this paper, the authors provide their perspectives on the existing "reach MCLs" approach that has historically guided groundwater remediation projects, and advocate a new approach built around the concepts of OoMs and mass discharge.     

近30年来鄱阳湖生态系统服务变化

鄱阳湖是我国最大淡水湖,在维持区域生态安全和生态平衡中发挥重要作用.为了解近30年鄱阳湖生态系统服务变化情况,本文对已有文献与监测数据进行收集整理,直接获取鄱阳湖水资源供给、渔业资源供给、水环境净化服务数据,通过输沙量法、Berger-Parker优势度指数计算泥沙淤积调控和生物多样性维持服务,利用RMSD方法分析19922014年鄱阳湖生态系统服务关系.结果表明:(1)渔业资源供给和水环境净化服务不断下降,水资源供给和泥沙淤积调控服务在2010s有所恢复;(2)冬候鸟种类和数量增加,鱼类种群结构逐渐恢复,但Berger-Parker指数总体上升;(3)浮游植物、底栖动物多样性上升,浮游动物多样性下降;(4)不同时间尺度各服务间均为高权衡关系,水环境净化服务相对收益始终高于其他服务.     

Global intensification of weak tropical cyclones in the past 30 years

<正>The response of tropical cyclones(TCs) to climate change is a hot topic in ocean and atmosphere research. Both theoretical analysis and numerical experiments indicated that the intensity of TCs may increase with global warming(Emanuel, 1987; Knutson and Tuleya, 2004), which however has not been convincingly validated by presently available observations(Landsea, 2005; Pielke, 2005). Using a huge amount of global ocean surface drifter data, Wang et al.     

Evolution of seismic risk management for insurance over the past 30 years

During the past 30 years, there has been spectacular growth in the use of risk analysis and risk management tools developed by engineers in the financial and insurance sectors. The insurance, the reinsurance, and the investment banking sectors have enthusiastically adopted loss estimation tools developed by engineers in developing their business strategies and for managing their financial risks. As a result, insurance/reinsurance strategy has evolved as a major risk mitigation tool in managing catastrophe risk at the individual, corporate, and government level. This is particularly true in developed countries such as US, Western Europe, and Japan. Unfortunately, it has not received the needed attention in developing countries, where such a strategy for risk management is most needed. Fortunately, in the last five years, there has been excellent focus in developing "Insur Tech" tools to address the much needed "Insurance for the Masses", especially for the Asian Markets. In the earlier years of catastrophe model development, risk analysts were mainly concerned with risk reduction options through engineering strategies, and relatively little attention was given to financial and economic strategies. Such state-of-affairs still exists in many developing countries. The new developments in the science and technologies of loss estimation due to natural catastrophes have made it possible for financial sectors to model their business strategies such as peril and geographic diversification, premium calculations, reserve strategies, reinsurance contracts, and other underwriting tools. These developments have not only changed the way in which financial sectors assess and manage their risks, but have also changed the domain of opportunities for engineers and scientists.This paper will address the issues related to developing insurance/reinsurance strategies to mitigate catastrophe risks and describe the role catastrophe risk insurance and reinsurance has played in managing financial risk due to natural catastrophes. Historical losses and the share of those losses covered by insurance will be presented. How such risk sharing can help the nation share the burden of losses between tax paying public, the "at risk" property owners, the insurers and the reinsurers will be discussed. The paper will summarize the tools that are used by the insurance and reinsurance companies for estimating their future losses due to catastrophic natural events. The paper will also show how the results of loss estimation technologies developed by engineers are communicated to the business flow of insurance/reinsurance companies. Finally, to make it possible to grow "Insurance for the Masses – IFM", the role played by parametric insurance products and Insur Tech tools will be discussed.     

法国地球透镜计划(GEOSCOPE):过去30年的进展与挑战

1长周期地震学的早期概况 巴黎地球物理学院（Institutde Physiquedu Globein Paris,简称IPGP）在长周期地震学和观测设施方面有着雄厚的基础。该学院的地震实验室于1952-1982年设计了人工操作的地震仪,主要用于对固体潮倾斜的研究。经过多次尝试,Blum等胡在1957年终于研制出了第一台原型倾斜仪。     

近30年来洞庭湖水质营养状况演变特征分析

根据1986-2015年30年的水质监测数据,利用湖泊水质单因子评价和综合营养状态指数(TLI)对洞庭湖水质营养状况变化趋势进行评价分析.1986-2015年全湖Ⅰ~Ⅲ类水质百分比呈现极显著下降趋势,近5年来稳定在Ⅳ类水平,影响水质的污染物为总氮(TN)和总磷(TP),全湖TN浓度、TP浓度和TLI在过去30年里呈显著或极显著上升趋势,TN和TP等是洞庭湖水质类别的主要影响因子.在空间分布上,TLI、TN浓度、TP浓度和Chl.a浓度高低顺序均表现为东洞庭湖南洞庭湖西洞庭湖,且东洞庭湖TN浓度和Chl.a浓度与其它湖区差异显著.1986-2002年洞庭湖水质营养状态呈现波动上升趋势,主要与面源污染有关;2003-2007年富营养化趋势有所减缓,可能与期间工业污染下降和水环境容量扩大有关;但2008-2015年又开始明显加剧,可能是流域内工业与农业污染增加、内源污染释放与水环境容量减小造成的.30年来洞庭湖各湖区基本均处于中营养状态,但接近轻度富营养且2008-2010年和2015年东洞庭湖等部分湖区达到轻度富营养水平.洞庭湖近年来蓝藻门所占比例明显上升,部分湖区已经暴发蓝藻水华.     

五大连池水质现状及近30年前后变化

2012—2013年春、夏、秋季,对五大连池11个采样点的水质变化进行研究,分析湖水水质现状,比较30年前后湖泊的水质变化并评估五大连池富营养化程度.结果表明,五大连池不同部分、季节、年份的水质参数指标波动剧烈,可能是受水产养殖及氮、磷浓度变化影响,2池和3池浮游生物量及叶绿素a浓度明显较低;同1980s相比,水质变化较大,一些指标显示水质已趋向好转,但5池却接近重度富营养化,说明近几年的还湿、迁居等保护措施初见效果,但整个湖泊水质恢复需要漫长过程.     

Eutrophication and heavy metal pollution in the Flensburg Fjord: A reassessment after 30 years

A study of surface sediment organic matter and heavy metal content (e.g. Cu, Zn, Pb and Sn) was carried out in 2006 to assess changes in eutrophication and pollution in the periodically anoxic Flensburg Fjord since 1972. Low hydrodynamic activity together with sewage discharges and high primary production in the inner fjord promote the enrichment of present day surface sediments in organic matter and metals in contrast to the outer fjord. However, heavy metal contents in the fjord are typical for the western Baltic Sea, although they are higher than in the preindustrial period.Although the anthropogenic nutrient load has substantially decreased since the 1970s, sediments from the inner fjord contain more organic material in 2006 than in 1972 resulting from still high levels of primary production supported by internal nutrient loading. Of the heavy metals measured, a decrease in Pb content since the 1970s is distinct, which is explained by the banning on gasoline lead. Taken together, these results suggest that the amelioration of environmental conditions needs time but is indeed related to reduced anthropogenic inputs.     

抚仙湖历史水位反演与未来30年水位变化预测

在极端气候事件频发和人类活动加剧的背景下,抚仙湖水位波动显著,尤其是2009—2012年极端干旱事件的发生,使抚仙湖平均水位（1721.31 m）低于法定最低水位（1721.65 m）,给生态环境安全带来严重威胁.因此,找到合适有效的湖泊水位模拟方法,对气候变化影响下的未来水位进行预测,并做好相应的应对准备,对湖泊生态系统的保护至关重要.本文运用DYRESM水动力模型对抚仙湖1959—2050年水位进行了模拟.因抚仙湖流域尚无长时间序列的历史水文观测数据,故利用模型和水量补偿法对抚仙湖入湖水量进行反推,构建了降水量-入湖水量的回归方程,并通过有效的实测入湖水量和水位数据,对回归方程的精度进行了检验.利用全球气候模式BCC-CSM2-MR中SSP245和SSP585两种情景提供的未来气候预估数据,运用DYRESM预测了抚仙湖2021—2050年水位变化趋势.结果表明：（1）构建的DYRESM水动力模型和降水-入湖水量回归方程精度较高,模型结果能很好地反映抚仙湖水位的年际和年内变化趋势,且能有效捕捉到抚仙湖的水位峰值.（2）在SSP245和SSP585两种情景下,抚仙湖2021—2050年多年平均水位分别为1722.98和1723.93 m,较1959—2017年平均水位1721.77 m分别升高1.21和2.16 m.两种情景下抚仙湖未来水位均有部分时段超过法定最高蓄水位（1723.35 m）,但均高于法定最低水位.因此,未来气候变化对抚仙湖水量的影响有限,并不会导致水位过低,当水位超过法定最高蓄水位时,可通过控制出流闸门将水位调节在合理范围内.     

近30年来鄱阳湖湖盆地形演变特征与原因探析

利用鄱阳湖1980、1998和2010年3期湖盆水下地形数据,结合出、入湖泥沙输移数据以及流域水土流失、水库建设等资料,较为系统地研究鄱阳湖近30年来湖盆冲淤的时空变化特征及其影响因素.研究表明,1980-1998年,松门山以南主湖体位置淤积现象明显,平均淤高0.82 m,该淤积主要是由这一阶段内流域水土流失加剧所引起的;1998-2010年,在大规模植树造林和水库建设等人类活动影响下,鄱阳湖淤积现象减缓.但是在入江水道上湖盆高程显著下降,平均下降速率高达30.75 cm/a,这与入江水道处持续采砂和水流冲刷等因素有关;近30年来,"五河"入湖的洲滩区域冲淤变化及趋势有所差异,修水、抚河及赣江三角洲呈现逐渐降低的趋势,饶河入湖漫滩总体上以淤积为主,且地形坡度趋于变缓.研究结果对鄱阳湖水资源合理开发、水利工程建设及航运管理等均具有一定的实践和参考价值.     

四川地震工作三十年的进展与新世纪的展望

回顾了四川省过去30年的地震工作，包括地震观测技术、地震预报、地震地质、工程地震、地震灾害预测和防震减灾系统。指出存在的问题并提出建议。     

近30年三江源地区湖泊变化图谱与面积变化

以近30年的40景Landsat MSS/TM/ETM+、CBERS CCD遥感影像为数据源,采用植被指数法结合人工目视解译,分为四个时期对三江源地区湖泊进行了遥感水体检测.选取面积在15km2以上、总面积占研究区湖泊总面积的90%左右的24个湖泊作为典型湖泊,建立该地区湖泊的变化图谱,并引入湖泊萎缩强度指数对湖泊的面积变化及空间分布特征进行分析.结果表明,以第三时期(1999-2002年)为界,这24个湖泊总体上经历了先萎缩后扩张的过程,且萎缩的程度大于扩张的程度,近30年来湖泊总面积缩小了65.76km2.本文研究结论可为三江源地区对气候变化响应研究提供参考,并对区域水资源合理利用提供科学依据.     

庐山重力基线场稳定性分析

利用2018年庐山重力短基线场绝对重力和相对重力观测资料,基于绝对重力控制下的相对重力联测方式对庐山基线场的稳定性进行了分析。结果表明：庐山基线场2015～2018年测段重力变化为-11.6～13.4μGal、均值-0.962μGal,较小的重力变化表明庐山短基线重力场较稳定;2000～2018年测段重力变化为-39～33.5μGal、均值-0.275μGal,总体以G16测点为界呈分化特征,上山侧（G16～JZ04）重力变化较平缓（约-3 μGal）,下山侧（G03～G16）因G04、G14测点重力值变化显著（分别为-24.95、-18.5μGal）,导致相邻测段重力变化剧烈;测段重力变化与段差比值（B）为1.19×10^-4～3.58×10^-3;庐山及其周边地区由地表垂直运动引起的重力变化速率为0.7543±0.16μGal/a;近期研究区地震活动性呈震级小、沿断裂带集中分布特征;重力变化对相对重力仪一次项系数标定结果影响较大（正比于B值）,对校正精度影响小,利用以往重力观测成果进行一次项系数标定时,绝对重力测段JZ02～JZ04误差影响小于最大重力段差测段,定期维护和复测是保障高精度重力短基线场的有效途径。     

Baseline studies of delaware ocean outfall sites

A quarterly sampling programme was conducted during 1973–1974 off the coast of Delaware to provide an environmental baseline for two ocean sewage outfalls. Extensive physical measurements and water quality data, together with biological data (fish, invertebrates, bacteriological samples), were collected. Based on this research the design of sewage treatment for one of the outfalls was improved.     

Baseline metal concentrations in coastal Labrador sediments

Levels of Cr, Cu, Fe, Pb, Ni, and Zn in surface sediment from the Voisey's Bay area of coastal Labrador showed no evidence of recent anthropogenic input of metals. Metal concentrations in surface sediments, normalized to Li, fell within the 95% confidence limits of the background levels. Further analysis showed that the Li-metal regression lines from the surface sediments and sediments from 30-cm depth had the same slope and intercepts, suggesting that there was no difference in the metal content of the sediments at the two depths. Li-metal relationships can be used as a measure of the natural variability of the metal concentrations for the region and will serve as a baseline against which future anthropogenic affects may be assessed.     

Analysis of geomagnetic secular variations 10 000 to 30 000 years bp,Lac du Bouchet,France

Cores of the bottom sediments from Lac du Bouchet, in the Haute Loire, France (44.9° N, 3.8° E) have been taken using Mackereth type pneumatic piston corers. The sediments have been dated by palynological control back to 15 000 years bp (years before present), and by radiocarbon age determinations using both conventional and accelerator methods. The depth/time transform provisionally used here dates the sequence from 10 000 to 30 000 years bp. The stacked records of demagnetised remanent magnetisation from eight cores have been examined. Fourier and maximum entropy method spectral analyses show good agreement. Inclination and declination spectra are different in that the dominant inclination periods tend to fall in the negative part of the complex spectrum, while the dominant declination periods tend to fall in the positive part. The VGP path traced out by the remanent magnetisation vector shows predominantly clockwise looping, consistent with essentially westward drifting geomagnetic sources. The detailed form of the VGP path is affected by the degree of smoothing, but clockwise looping always predominates averaging ∼ 67% over the whole time interval investigated. A band of frequencies between ∼ 0.9 and ∼ 0.3 cycles per thousand years is associated with the strongest bias towards clockwise rotation (∼ 80% to 90%) while a band between ∼ 0.3 and 0.1 cycles per thousand years is associated with only ∼ 50% clockwise rotation. Individual core records show some negative inclinations at horizons where inclination minima occur suggesting that ‘excursions’ should be regarded as extreme values of secular variation rather than aborted polarity reversals of the main field.     

近场数字强震仪记录误差分析与零线校正方法

本文对数字强震仪记录进行了误差分析,并对国家强震动台网入网的5种型号数字强震仪系统作了振动台对比试验,分析了该系统加速度记录积分后速度和位移时程零线漂移的原因.本文提出了加速度记录的零线漂移校正方法和校正准则.为了印证零线校正方法的可靠性,对振动台试验中强震仪记录到的加速度两次积分得出位移时程与试验时记录到的绝对位移进行比较,计算位移和振动台绝对位移完全一致;对2008年5.12汶川8.0级大地震和1999年台湾9.21集集7.6级地震现场加速度记录两次积分后得出永久位移与两次大地震的GPS同震位移进行比较.结果表明,该方法对大地震近场仪器墩会发生倾斜或产生永久位移时加速度记录的零线校正有明显效果,可以给出加速度积分后的速度和位移并符合校正准则.本文方法解决了对大地震近场地面运动的研究停留在对峰值加速度和反应谱的研究阶段的困惑,满足了结构抗震对地面永久位移的需求.