Spatial and temporal structure of Tropical Pacific interannual variability in 20th century coupled simulations

Tropical Pacific interannual variability is examined in nine state-of-the-art coupled climate models, and compared with observations and ocean analyses data sets, the primary focus being on the spatial structure and spectral characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The spatial patterns of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from the coupled models are characterized by maximum variations displaced from the coast of South America, and generally extending too far west with respect to observations. Thermocline variability is characterized by dominant modes that are qualitatively similar in all the models, and consistent with the “recharge oscillator” paradigm for ENSO. The meridional scale of the thermocline depth anomalies is generally narrower than observed, a result that can be related to the pattern of zonal wind stress perturbations in the central-western equatorial Pacific. The wind stress response to eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies in the models is narrower and displaced further west than observed. The meridional scale of the wind stress can affect the amount of warm water involved in the recharge/discharge of the equatorial thermocline, while the longitudinal location of the wind stress anomalies can influence the advection of the mean zonal temperature gradient by the anomalous zonal currents, a process that may favor the growth and longer duration of ENSO events when the wind stress perturbations are displaced eastwards. Thus, both discrepancies of the wind stress anomaly patterns in the coupled models with respect to observations (narrow meridional extent, and westward displacement along the equator) may be responsible for the ENSO timescale being shorter in the models than in observations. The examination of the leading advective processes in the SST tendency equation indicates that vertical advection of temperature anomalies tends to favor ENSO growth in all the CGCMs, but at a smaller rate than in observations. In some models it can also promote a phase transition. Longer periods tend to be associated with thermocline and advective feedbacks that are in phase with the SST anomalies, while advective tendencies that lead the SST anomalies by a quarter cycle favor ENSO transitions, thus leading to a shorter period.     

Dynamics of climate extremes in northern Eurasia in the late 20th century

Changes in climatic parameters and in temperature and precipitation extremes in northern Eurasia in the late 20th century are analyzed. A spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies and of a set of indices of climate extremes is presented. Changes in climate extremes show a tendency toward a milder climate, mainly in winter. At the same time, the frost-free period has substantially decreased in the eastern, northern, and central parts of European Russia. In some regions during summer, there is an increase in the frequency of extreme events such as heavy rains, droughts, and sharp cooling. It is shown that the geographic pattern of present-day climate anomalies is linked to variations in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The main mechanism of the current warming in northern Eurasia is a winter intensification of zonal flow linked to the increased frequency of positive anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index.     

Causes of a fresher, colder northern North Atlantic in late 20th century in a coupled model

Observational evidence indicates that in the northern North Atlantic, especially in the Labrador Sea, almost the whole column of the ocean water is fresher, and colder in late 20th century than in 1950–1960s. Here we analyze a four-member ensemble of the 20th century simulations from a coupled climate model to examine the possible causes for these observed changes. The model simulations resemble the observed changes in the northern North Atlantic. The simulated results show that a decreased meridional freshwater divergence and an increased meridional heat divergence associated with a weaker thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic are the primary causes for the freshening and cooling in the northern North Atlantic. The increased precipitation less evaporation tends to enforce the freshening, but the reduced sea ice flux into this region tends to weaken it. On the other hand, the surface warming induced by a higher atmospheric CO₂ concentration tends to heat up the northern North Atlantic, but is overcome by the cooling from increased meridional heat divergence.     

Height variability from the MIROC – IPCC model for the 20th century compared to that of the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter

Planetary waves are key to large-scale dynamical adjustment in the global ocean as they transfer energy from the east to the west side of oceanic basins; they connect the forcing in the ocean interior with the variability at its boundaries; and they change the local heat content, thus coupling oceanic, atmospheric, and biological processes. Planetary waves, mostly of the first baroclinic mode, are observed as distinctive patterns in global time series of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and heat storage. The goal of this study is to compare and validate large-scale SSHA signals from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) with TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter observations. The last decade of the models’ time series is selected for comparison with the altimeter data. The wave patterns are separated from the meso- and large-scale SSHA signals by digital filters calibrated to select the same spectral bands in both model and altimeter data. The band-wise comparison allows for an assessment of the model skill to simulate the dynamical components of the observed wave field. Comparisons regarding both the seasonal cycle and the Rossby wave field differ significantly among basins. When carried within the same basin, differences can occur between equal latitudes in opposite hemispheres. Furthermore, at some latitudes the MIROC reproduces biannual, annual and semiannual planetary waves with phase speeds and average amplitudes similar to those observed by the altimeter, but with significant differences in phase.     

Annual and interannual variability in the South-East Atlantic during the 20th century

Long time-series of sea surface temperature (SST) and pseudo wind stress (τ) in six areas in the South-East Atlantic are analysed as possible inputs into fisheries models. The areas encompass oceanic and coastal regimes. A clear seasonal signal is evident in all areas, with an amplitude in SST of 3–4°C in the upwelling areas and 5°C farther offshore and on the Agulhas Bank. Warming lags in the north and offshore by 1–2 months. Monthly variability is highest in the upwelling areas. An increasing trend in SST is suggested in all areas, the post-World War II era being about 1,0°C warmer than earlier periods. Some coherence occurs between areas at times, although at other times the anomalies are distinctly out of phase. There is a suggestion of an upward trend in the equatorward wind stress in some offshore areas after 1964, with a sharp change in 1975. Benguela Niños are evident in the environmental record and have a periodicity of around 10 years.     

Tropical Atlantic variability in a coupled physical–biogeochemical ocean model

A three-dimensional ocean biogeochemical model of the tropical Atlantic Ocean was run for more than half a century (1949–2000) in order to characterize the ocean biogeochemical response to variable forcing over this period. The seasonal cycle in the equatorial upwelling zone agrees reasonably well with observations and other published simulations but underestimates phytoplankton biomass under strong upwelling conditions. Away from the equator, modelled nutrient flux and biological production are maximal in each hemisphere's winter season, and appear to be proximately forced by evaporative cooling and wind stirring rather than by Ekman upwelling. The fraction of the total variance associated with the seasonal cycle is considerably smaller for modelled biogeochemical fields than for sea-surface temperature over this long simulation, and much of the biogeochemical variance is associated with interdecadal changes. The model results suggest that the tropical Atlantic became more productive following the Pacific climate shift of 1976 and remained so until about 1989. Summer surface nitrate concentrations during the 1990s were lower than those in the 1980s. The relationship between the equatorial and off-equatorial regimes may have changed following the 1976 event, with equatorial variability dominating the basin-wide variance patterns after 1976.     

20 世纪热带海洋海表面温度年际变化的特征

利用Hadley中心海冰和海表面温度资料集Had ISST和美国国家海洋大气管理局的扩展重建海温(ERSST)海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)观测数据,结合政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)中CMIP3(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3)的24个耦合模式的模拟结果,通过经验正交函数(EOF)分解等方法,对20世纪热带海洋在的SST年际变化进行了分析。结果表明,20世纪热带海洋年际变化的主要规律是ENSO信号,且有持续增强的趋势;热带海盆间存在显著的SST梯度,其长期变化与热带东太平洋显著相关。本文结论有利于理解在全球变暖背景下,海盆间的相互作用对赤道海域气候改变的影响。     

Simulation of climate changes in the 20th–22nd centuries with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

The results of numerical experiments with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model on the reproduction of climate changes during the 20th century and on the simulation of possible climate changes during the 21st–22nd centuries according to three IPCC scenarios of variations in the concentrations of greenhouse and other gases, as well as the results of the experiments with the doubled and quadruple concentrations of CO₂, are considered. An increase in the near-surface air temperature during the 20th century and the features of the observed climate changes, such as warming in 1940–1950 and its slowing down in 1960–1970, are adequately reproduced in the model. According to the model, the air-temperature increase during the 22nd century (as compared to the end of the 20th century) varies from 2 K for the most moderate scenario to 5 K for the warmest scenario. This estimate is somewhat lower than the expected warming averaged over the data of all models presented in the third IPCC report. According to model data, in the 22nd century, under all scenarios, at the end of summer, a complete or almost complete sea-ice melting will occur in the Arctic. According to the model, by the year 2200, the sea level will vary by 20 to 45 cm as compared to the level at the end of the 20th century.     

Changes in Dogger Bank macrofauna communities in the 20th century caused by fishing and climate

The macrofauna communities on the Dogger Bank (North Sea) from the 1920s, the 1950s and the 1980s to the 2000s were compared and identified five communities with similar spatial distribution throughout the 20th century. The abundance of dominant species in the five communities varied with time. Most obvious in the 1950s was the loss of the extensive Spisula and Mactra patches, which covered most of the shallow parts of the Bank in the 1920s. Since the 1980s, they have been found only as juveniles. The biological regime shift in the late 1980s caused an increase in macrofauna abundance, species numbers, diversity and southern species in most of the communities. The climate regime shift in 2001 had opposite effects in which the abundance, species numbers, diversity and southern species decreased in most of the communities. The increase in interface-feeding species and the decrease in sand-licking amphipods in the 2000s especially in the shallow Bank Community give evidence for climate driven changes in water masses, currents, storms, turbidity and food availability via planktonic or benthic primary production. Both fishing impact and climate change are hypothesised as explaining the changes in the Dogger Bank macrofauna communities.     

Inter-model variability of projected sea level changes in the western North Pacific in CMIP3 coupled climate models

We investigate sea level changes in the western North Pacific for twenty-first century climate projections by analyzing the output from 15 coupled models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Projected changes in the wind stress due to those in sea level pressure (SLP) result in the projected sea level changes. In the western North Pacific (30?50°N, 145?170°E), the inter-model standard deviation of the sea level change relative to the global mean is comparable to that based on the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean. Whereas a positive SLP change in the eastern North Pacific (40?50°N, 170?150°W) induces a large northward shift of the Kuroshio Extension (KE), a negative SLP change in this region induces a strong intensification of the KE. Large inter-model variability of the SLP projection in the eastern North Pacific causes a large uncertainty of the sea level projection in the western North Pacific. Models with a larger northward shift (intensification) of the KE exhibit a poleward shift (an intensification) of the Aleutian Low (AL) larger than that for the MME mean. However, models that exhibit a larger intensification of the AL do not necessarily show a larger intensification of the KE. Our analysis suggests that the SLP change that induces an intensification of the KE is associated with a teleconnection from the equatorial Pacific, and that the SLP change that induces a northward shift of the KE is characterized by a zonal mean change.     

A nitrate and silicate budget in the equatorial Pacific Ocean: a coupled physical–biological model study

A coupled physical–biological model was developed to simulate the low-silicate, high-nitrate, and low-chlorophyll (LSHNLC) conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and used to compute a detailed budget in the Wyrtki box (5°N–5°S, 180–90°W) for the major sources and cycling of nitrogen and silicon in the equatorial Pacific. With the incorporation of biogenic silicon dissolution, NH₄ regeneration from organic nitrogen and nitrification of ammonia in the model, we show that silicon recycling in the upper ocean is less efficient than nitrogen. As the major source of nutrients to the equatorial Pacific, the Equatorial Undercurrent provides slightly less Si(OH)₄ than NO₃ to the upwelling zone, which is defined as 2.5°N–2.5°S. As a result, the equatorial upwelling supplies less Si(OH)₄ than NO₃ into the euphotic zone in the Wyrtki box, having a Si/N supply ratio of about 0.85 (2.5 vs. 2.96 mmolm⁻² day⁻¹). More Si(OH)₄ than NO₃ is taken up with a Si/N ratio of 1.17 (2.72 vs. 2.33 mmolm⁻² day⁻¹) within the euphotic zone. The difference between upwelling supply and biological uptake is balanced by nutrient regeneration and horizontal advection. Excluding regeneration, the net silicate and nitrate uptakes are nearly equal (1.76 vs. 1.84 mmolm⁻² day⁻¹). However, biogenic silica export production is slightly higher than organic nitrogen (1.74 vs. 1.59 mmolm⁻² day⁻¹) following a 1.1 Si/N ratio. In the central equatorial Pacific, low silicate concentrations limit diatom growth; therefore non-diatom new production accounts for most of the new production. Higher silicate supply in the east maintains elevated diatom growth rates and new production associated with diatoms dominate upwelling zone. In contrast, the new production associated with small phytoplankton is nearly constant or decreases eastward along the equator. The total new production has a higher rate in the east than in the west, following the pattern of surface silicate. This suggests that silicate regulates the diatom production, total new production, and thereby carbon cycle in this area. The modeled mean primary production is 48.4 mmolCm⁻² day⁻¹, representing the lower end of direct field measurements, while new production is 15.0 mmolCm⁻² day⁻¹, which compares well with previous estimates.     

Response of the North Pacific subtropical countercurrent and its variability to global warming

Response of the North Pacific subtropical countercurrent (STCC) and its variability to global warming is examined in a state-of-the-art coupled model that is forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Compared with the present climate, the upper ocean is more stratified, and the mixed layer depth (MLD) shoals in warmer climate. The maximum change of winter MLD appears in the Kuroshio–Oyashio extension (KOE) region, where the mean MLD is the deepest in the North Pacific. This weakens the MLD front and reduces lateral induction. As a result of the reduced subduction rate and a decrease in sea surface density in KOE, mode waters form on lighter isopycnals with reduced thickness. Advected southward, the weakened mode waters decelerate the STCC. On decadal timescales, the dominant mode of sea surface height in the central subtropical gyre represents STCC variability. This STCC mode decays as CO₂ concentrations double in the twenty-first century, owing both to weakened mode waters in the mean state and to reduced variability in mode waters. The reduced mode-water variability can be traced upstream to reduced variations in winter MLD front and subduction in the KOE region where mode water forms.     

Distinguishing coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions from background noise in the North Pacific

When considering physical mechanisms for decadal-timescale climate variability in the North Pacific, it is useful to describe in detail the expected response of the ocean to the chaotic atmospheric forcing. The expected response to this white-noise forcing includes strongly enhanced power in the decadal frequency band relative to higher frequencies, pronounced changes in basin-wide climate that resemble regime shifts, preferred patterns of spatial variability, and a depth-dependent profile that includes variability with a standard deviation of 0.2–0.4°C over the top 50–100 m. Weak spectral peaks are also possible, given ocean dynamics. Detecting coupled ocean–atmosphere modes of variability in the real climate system is difficult against the spectral and spatial structure of this ‘null-hypothesis’ of how the ocean and atmosphere interact, especially given the impossibility of experimentally decoupling the ocean from the atmosphere. Turning to coupled ocean–atmosphere models to address this question, a method for identifying coupled modes by using models of increasing physical complexity is illustrated. It is found that a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode accounts for enhanced variability with a time scale of 20 years/cycle in the Kuroshio extension region of the model's North Pacific. The observed Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has many similarities to the expected noise-forced response and few similarities to the model's coupled ocean–atmosphere variability. However, model deficiencies and some analyses of observations by other workers indicate that the possibility that part of the PDO arises from a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode cannot be ruled out.     

Influence of radiation and circulation factors on climate change in Western Siberia at the end of the 20th century and beginning of the 21st century

An analysis of the air-temperature and atmospheric-pressure fields in Western Siberia is performed based on observations in 1976–2014; a comparison of temperature and pressure variability in two temporal intervals, 1976–2005 and 1985–2014, is carried out. The estimation of contributions from such climate-forming factors as radiation and circulation is performed for the same intervals. It is revealed that an increase in the annual mean ground–air temperature in the investigated region of Western Siberia was still taking place in the period of 1985–2014; however, the warming process was less active than in the 1976–2005 period. Winter months play the largest role in decreasing the temperature growth rate; during these months, the warming process was replaced by a cooling one in the second time interval. It is shown that the circulation factors, that is, the mechanisms described by indices of global circulation, played the dominant role in the period from 1985 to 2014.     

A synchronously coupled tide–wave–surge model of the Yellow Sea

A coupled wave–tide–surge model has been established in this study in order to investigate the effect of tides, storm surges, and wind waves interactions during a winter monsoon on November 1983 in the Yellow Sea. The coupled model is based on the synchronous dynamic coupling of a third-generation wave model, WAM-Cycle 4, and the two-dimensional tide–surge model. The surface stress generated by interactions between wind and waves is calculated using the WAM-Cycle 4 directly based on an analytical approximation of the results obtained from the quasi-linear theory of wave generation. The changes of bottom friction factor generated by waves and current interactions are calculated by using simplified bottom boundary layer model. The model simulations showed that bottom velocity and effective bottom drag coefficient induced by combination of wave and current were increased in shallow waters of up to 50 m in the Yellow Sea during the wintertime strong storm conditions.     

Coral extension rates in the NW Indian Ocean I: reconstruction of 20th century SST variability and monsoon current strength

To date, only a few coral proxy studies have investigated coral growth as an indicator of climate variability. This study presents the first extension-rate record (Porites lutea) from the Maldives (NW Indian Ocean), inferred from skeletal δ¹⁸O chronology for the lagoon of Rasdhoo Atoll (4°N/73°W) in the central area of the Maldives, influenced by the Indian monsoon. The record spans 90 years over the period 1917–2007. The mean annual extension over this period was 9.9 mm/year, and an increase of annual extension rates until 1990 by 3 mm/year can be explained by a rise of 0.7°C in sea surface temperature (SST) in this region. After 1990, the extension rates do no continue increasing, possibly due to ecological stress caused by progressive ocean warming and acidification. The correlation between annual extension rates and SSTs is thus significant and strong in the lower part of the record until 1955 (r = +0.69, p < 0.0001), but weaker thereafter (r = +0.44, p < 0.001). The extension rates yield a distinct interannual variability of 3–4 years, caused by interannual SST fluctuations driven by the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation. A variability of 8–9 years is likely driven by SST variations endemic to the Indian Ocean. Spectral peaks between 18–19 years and 6–7 years cannot be explained by SST fluctuations, but by variations in the strength of the SW monsoon currents. It is suggested that during phases of stronger monsoon activity, the coral sacrificed coral extension in favor of a denser, more robust skeleton. The geomorphology of the atoll may strengthen the potential of this new coral archive to track climate variability.