全国重要矿产预测评价

全国重要矿产预测评价在借鉴国内外矿产预测经验基础上,运用成矿系列理论、成矿动力学理论和综合信息矿产定量预测理论为支撑的矿床模型综合地质信息矿产预测方法,以成矿系列矿产预测类型为纲,在系统编制建造构造预测底图的基础上,建立矿床综合信息预测模型。通过运用成矿地质体参数法,在矿产资源评价系统(MRAS)的辅助下,估算我国铁、铝、铜、铅、锌、金、锑、钨、锰、锡、钼、镍、银、稀土、铬铁矿、菱镁矿、锂、硼、硫、萤石、钾、重晶石、磷23种矿产地下2 km预测资源量,并在此基础上圈定全国层次的3级预测区。科学评价了我国矿产资源的潜力,为国家政府机构和矿产勘查机构提供技术支撑。     

矿产资源总量预测地质数据的预处理问题

矿产资源总量预测是矿产资源经济研究的重要组成部分，是实现矿产资源经济研究综合化、定量化的工具和手段．本文在考虑矿产资源总量预测的基础上，对其地质数据进行了初步分析，提出了具体预测处理方法与建议，供有关人员参考。     

全国重要矿产和区域成矿规律研究取得重大进展

正2013年10月28日,由计划项目"全国矿产资源潜力评价"计划项目项目办公室组织的工作项目"全国重要矿产和区域成矿规律研究"成果验收会在北京举行。以李廷栋院士、肖序常院士、郑绵平院士、赵文津院士和莫宣学院士及国土资源部总工程师钟自然、中国地质调查局原局长叶天竺、原地矿部直管局副局长黄崇轲等20名业内知名专家组成的专家组对项目最终成果进行了评审。     

广西铝土矿遥感综合成矿预测及资源总量估算

前人在已知矿床、点的基础上对广西铝土矿做过系统的成矿预测及资源总量估算，但原有工作限于储量级别要求，划入预测区的范围较小，部分有矿层分布的区带未圈出，又参与资源总量估算的块段尚有向外延伸部分。通过遥感综合方法，在原有基础上扩大预测区，增加三水型铝土矿预到区，并对已知块段外延矿带、新增预测区进一步估算其资源总量，较全面地解决了资料不完整地区的铝土矿资源量估算问题。     

全国铀矿资源潜力评价预测方法

＂全国铀矿资源潜力评价＂采用矿床模型综合地质信息法在全国各铀矿预测工作区开展潜力评价工作,汇总形成全国铀矿资源潜力定量评价成果。该方法是在典型矿床建模和成矿规律研究总结的基础上,充分利用地质、矿产和物化遥资料信息进行综合预测评价的技术方法体系。文章主要介绍了潜力评价工作在成矿预测阶段所涉及的预测区圈定和资源量估算方法。     

全国重要矿产资源潜力评价模型汇总

模型是矿产资源评价的基础,全国25种重要矿产资源的潜力评价都是以预测地区的矿床预测类型为纲,通过相似类比进行圈定靶区和预测资源量的。由于此次预测涉及全国上千个矿产预测类型,要进行全国性汇总评价则需要形成全国性模型。在原有82个预测评价模型的基础上,通过各省矿产预测类型汇总,建立矿产预测类型谱系,形成了全国汇总模型。     

江西省主要矿产预测类型及其地质特征

以江西省矿产资源潜力评价成果为基础,系统介绍了江西省主要矿产预测类型及其特征,按“同一空间、共有成矿地质环境、相同的成矿作用、基本一致的预测要素、超越典型矿床”的技术思路,讨论并重新厘定了“彭山穹隆式、赣南七层楼式”2个矿产预测类型.研究认为,矿产预测类型的实质也是按全位成矿思路构建的预测实体目标的理论模型,所划分的矿产预测类型从预测角度基本涵盖了江西省主要矿产资源类型.     

全国重要矿产资源潜力评价一些基本预测理论方法的进展

全国25种重要矿产资源潜力评价工作是迄今为止投入最多的矿产预测评价工作,采用的技术方法是基于矿床模型的综合地质信息预测方法。预测工作针对矿产预测的基本问题,如地质工作的不平衡性、三维预测、定量预测与定性预测结合、地物化遥综合预测等问题进行有益探索,提出了新的解决方案。以矿产预测类型为纲,开展建造构造编图,将建造与成矿环境结合;通过矿产预测类型的成矿模式、预测要素研究构建定量预测模型;通过成矿地质体地质参数法预测实现二维到三维的定量预测。     

矿产资源评价系统(MRAS)在全国矿产资源潜力评价中的应用

矿产预测是矿床模型综合地质信息预测方法体系的重要组成部分,矿产预测的成果也是矿产资源潜力评价的重要目标。MRAS作为矿产预测最重要的辅助决策系统,了解其在矿产预测工作中的基本方法和流程,对于矿床模型综合地质信息预测方法体系在全国矿产资源潜力评价项目中的正确应用是很重要的。现对MRAS在矿产预测中的应用做详细的介绍。     

矿产资源定量评价中文本数据挖掘研究

矿产资源定量评价工作的目的是从试验、观测、收集到的大量的各类专题数据中,提取相对应的专题信息。长期的地质工作积累了大量的原始数据,其中文本型的定性数据在地质数据中占了很大的分量,但是在常规的地质定量评价工作中针对这类数据的处理方法却很有限。文本型数据挖掘是现今数据挖掘的热点问题之一,为了充分利用前人所积累的文档报告,并有效地从中提取各类信息,这里提出了一种矿产地质数据库中文本数据挖掘的方法。在数据挖掘过程中,空间数据属性的小规模文本数据挖掘主要分四步进行,即数据挖掘相关的预处理;基于关键字的属性分解;属性归纳和关联规则分析。其中,挖掘关联规则问题可以分解为以下两个问题:1找出存在于数据库D中的所有频繁项集(或物品集)。频繁项集的支持度support应不小于用户或领域专家给定的最小支持度minsup阈值;2利用频繁项集生成强关联规则。根据定义,这些规则必须满足最小支持度minsup和最小可信度(置信度)minconf。对于每个频繁项集A,如BA,B,且Confidenceminconf,则构成关联规则B(A-B)。在文本的研究工作中开发了相应的软件系统,取得了较好的应用效果。属性数据是空间数据库的重要组成部分,它所荷载的专业方面的信息量是常规型数值数据所无法比拟的。如果能够进一步实现深层次属性数据挖掘,那么常规的信息源将得到极大的扩充,地质数据分析的层次也将会提升到一定的高度。     

中国铅锌矿产资源成矿特征与资源潜力评价

近年来经济的快速发展导致铅锌矿产资源需求大量增加,使得我国的铅锌资源储备形势依然严峻。基于此,在全国开展铅锌矿产资源潜力评价工作,通过总结铅锌矿地质矿产成果,掌握铅锌矿产资源现状,预测未查明的铅锌矿产资源潜力,能够更好地满足未来铅锌矿产资源规划部署及合理利用的需要。在系统梳理全国29个省级行政单位铅锌矿产资源潜力评价成果的基础上,总结中国铅锌矿时空分布规律特征,结合传统的矿床模型以及全国重要矿产预测类型划分方案划分了铅锌矿矿产预测类型,将全国铅锌矿划分为9类矿产预测类型,分别是层控碳酸盐岩型（MVT）、碳酸盐岩细碎屑岩型（SEDEX）、砂砾岩型、沉积改造型、陆相火山岩型、海相火山岩型、岩浆热液型、夕卡岩型和风化壳型;分析了重要成矿区带的铅锌矿矿产预测类型、成矿时代,总结了各成矿区带主要类型铅锌矿区域预测要素,建立了主要类型铅锌矿区域预测模型。结合全国大地构造相图、全国成矿区带图以及全国各级预测区分布图等资料,划分了15个铅锌矿成矿省和47个Ⅲ级成矿区带,以成矿省(成矿区带)为主线开展矿产资源潜力评价和预测工作,为勘查部署提供依据。     

博茨瓦纳重要矿产资源潜力与投资前景分析

博茨瓦纳矿产资源丰富,金刚石和镍矿储量大,是南部非洲重要的资源国家。本文通过对博茨瓦纳金刚石、金、铜、镍矿等四大优势矿种的分布特征、产量和品位、主要矿业开发公司及投资环境等分析,认为金刚石、金矿、铜镍矿等矿产资源品位高且开发潜力巨大,与我国新发展阶段矿产资源需求形成很强的互补性。博茨瓦纳基础设施发展总体较为落后但正在逐步完善,经济发展形势向好,矿业相关法律制度较为完善,对外资企业也有较多的优惠政策,国内安全状况较为稳定,因而吸引了许多外资企业进行矿业投资。针对重要的金刚石、金矿和镍矿本文提出了相关开发建议,同时以“一带一路”为契机,加强人文领域交流,投资完善基础设施建设,带动中资企业在博茨瓦纳开展矿业合作。     

与找矿信息量法结合的含矿网格单元蒙特卡洛矿产资源潜力评价方法的原理及应用

文章介绍了以含矿网格单元为统计单位、并与找矿信息量法结合的蒙特卡洛矿产资源潜力评价方法的原理和工作步骤,以及用该法进行丹池锡多金属成矿带锡矿矿产资源潜力评价工作案例,表明该法可以把评价工作区的矿产空间分布信息、成矿模式和找矿模型、成矿-找矿空间信息引入蒙特卡洛方法中,无需人类专家估计矿床个数,减少了工作步骤,提高了工作效率和自动化程度,减少了因人为主观性而造成的评价误差。     

基于GIS的矿产资源综合定量评价

简述了矿产资源的基本属性、与评价有关的矿产资源的某些概念,以及地质、地球物理、地球化学和遥感信息在资源评价中的作用;分别介绍了新开发的中国重要成矿区带资源评价基础空间数据库及其管理系统、金属矿产资源勘查评价系统的基本功能;阐述了矿产综合定量勘查评价的方法流程。总之,基于GIS的矿产资源综合定量评价的过程,事实上是借助专用的GIS系统进行数据收集、信息提取、信息集成,最终应用综合致矿信息实施找矿靶区定量圈定和评价的过程。     

综合信息矿产预测理论与方法体系新进展

综合信息矿产预测理论与方法以研究地质、地球物理、地球化学和遥感信息为基础,并研究信息之间的转换规律,建立综合信息找矿模型,开展成矿预测,应用间接信息找寻隐伏矿产资源体,达到找矿的目的。通过上述研究为国家做出矿产资源总体规划和找矿勘探工程部署,指导实际找矿勘探工作。     

区域矿产定量评价的矿床综合信息评价模型

控制矿床生成的地质要素和识别矿床存在的勘查信息对区域矿产预测评价是至关重要的。矿床综合信息评价模型要从传统的矿床模型出发,将其总结和转化为区域预测评价的控矿关键预测要素,研究识别矿床存在的物、化、遥勘查信息,开展矿床品位-吨位统计特征研究,形成预测评价的要素集,进行矿产预测。     

Areal value assessment of the mineral resources endowment of Israel

The achievements of the mineral industry of Israel and an overall reconnaissance of the natural resources endowment of the country have been evaluated by the areal value estimation method, using the COMOD software package. In broad terms, the evaluation relies on geological variables obtained from quantifying the geological map of a region and on cumulative past production records, which, when prorated per unit area, yield a series of unit regional values (u.r.v.)measurements for individual commodities, resource sectors, and total resources. The two groups of variables facilitate conducting comparisons with other well-developed and/or geologically similar regions from which the future potential of the region, with respect to both overall endowment and individual commodities, can be assessed. The model underlying this appraisal method assumes that all regions above a size of about 5,000 sq kms are equally valuable with respect to total endowment in natural resources, regardless of inherent geological characteristics. To date, several areal value estimation studies have been carried out for 11 different countries, encompassing a total of 111 politically-administratively defined regions. These studies provide an adequate information base for between-region comparisons. The individual states of the United States, constituting what can be regarded as well-developed regions, may serve as an expectation for all such comparisons. The distribution of the u.r.v. of total resources of the individual states is lognormal with a geometric mean of 54,954 1967 U.S. dollars per square kilometer. Based on the above assumption, this value can serve as a conservative estimate for the total output any region can be expected to produce. Thirty different mineral commodities are known to exist in Israel. Of these, 19 are economically exploited and the remaining 11 are at present uneconomical mineral occurrences. Past production records have been obtained and assembled for 14 of the exploited commodities. From these records, a number of statistics were computed to evaluate the development of the mineral industry of the country and its future potential. In absolute figures, the overall cumulative production has been rather small, amounting to only 1,679.8 million deflated 1967 U.S. dollars (equivalent to 2,082 million current U.S. dollars or 10,260 million current Israeli pounds). Only bromine, potash, and phosphate are of worldwide significance, amounting respectively to 10, 2.9, and 1 percent of the world production in 1977. Construction materials, with the longest production history, have been the most valuable, accounting for 53.6 percent of the total cumulative output. They are followed by nonmetals (34.7 percent),metals (8 percent)and fuels (3.7 percent).The value-ranking of individual commodities and their respective contribution to the total cumulative output is: cement, 35 percent; potash, 19 percent; stone, 15 percent; phosphate, 11 percent; copper, 8 percent; sand and gravel, 4 percent; bromine, 3 percent; petroleum, 2.5 percent; natural gas, 1 percent; periclase, 0.7 percent; salt, 0.4 percent; and glass sand, 0.2 percent. Total annual output for the period 1948–1977 exhibited a constant growth with no indication of approaching a plateau of diminishing returns. As new commodities became exploited, the share of constructional materials in the total output gradually declined from 100 percent in 1948 to 45 percent in 1977. The contribution of the mineral industry to the annual gross national product rose steadily from 0.55 percent in 1951 to 2.2 percent in 1964. Thereafter, it fluctuated around an average of about 1.8 percent. Total output and production of constructional materials correlate very highly with both gross national product (GNP)and population size. However, when only the annual changes in these variables are considered, the correlation coefficients are found to be insignificant. The u.r.v. of Israel (with an area of 20,700 sq kms and a population of 3,653,000)is 81,154 deflated 1967 U.S. dollars per sq km. It exceeds the expected value for well-developed regions. It can therefore be concluded that Israel is not exceptionally poor in natural resources, as is commonly felt. On the other hand, its high u.r.v. also implies (unfortunately)that the development potential of its mineral industry is rather limited. The u.r.v. estimates, which are based on area alone, can be refined to some degree by considering the geological characteristics of the investigated area. The geological composition of the country was quantified by point counting the geological map, using a grid network of 40.3 sq km cells. Each map unit was assigned to one of 65 standard time-petrographic units. This sampling density results in the recognition of 11 time-petrographic units (instead of 15, which are actually present).Based on linear statistical association between mineral resource diversity and geological diversity established for the states of the United States, Israel can be expected to possess 31 different commodities. Since only 19 have thus far been exploited, Israel can be expected to produce 12 additional commodities. The identity of these missing resources can be inferred by examining the inventory of commodities produced in other regions with a similar geological framework and by evaluating the potential of the 11 noneconomical mineral occurrences, which have already been discovered in the country. The geology of Israel was compared to 12 other regions; of these Egypt, Libya, Sudan, and Sinai were found to be most similar to Israel, each having 8 or 9 time-petrographic rock types in common with Israel, 7 of which are identical. Based on these comparisons and on additional information from other sources, it appears that the commodities that are more likely to be produced in the foreseeable future include manganese, feldspar, uranium (from phosphates),lignite, oil shale, and iron. The mineral industry of Israel accomplished quite significant achievements in the course of its modern history of only 35 years. These resulted from concerted national exploration and development efforts, which were supported by massive governmental capital investments. The areal value method of mineral resources appraisal is based on a cybernetic black box system model in which the degree of commitment derived from the socioeconomic infrastructure is viewed as the driving agent in converting the inherited geological characteristics of the region into economic marketable mineral commodities. The case history of Israel provides a strong substantiation for this generalized system model.     

矿产资源规划环境影响评价工作方法探讨

根据《中华人民共和国环境影响评价法》关于规划的环境影响评价要求,初步探讨了矿产资源规划环境影响评价的工作思路。参照国土资源部《矿产资源规划管理暂行办法》的有关规定,列举了矿产资源规划的类型;依据《环评法》第七条和第八条,阐明了不同类型的矿产资源规划所对应的环境影响评价文件编制的要求;提出了矿产资源规划环境影响评价的工作程序和环境影响评价指标体系的建议,并简单地探讨了2种评价方法。