不同气候情景下汉江上游洪水调节服务时空变化特征（英文）

Extreme rainstorm and the subsequent flood increasingly threaten the security of human society and ecological environment with aggravation of global climate change and anthropogenic activity in recent years. Therefore, the research on flood mitigation service(FMS) of ecosystem should be paid more attention to mitigate the risk. In this paper, we assessed FMS in the Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River(URHR), China from 2000 to 2014 using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number(SCS-CN) model, and further simulated the future FMS under two climate scenarios(in 2020 and 2030). The results reveal that the FMS presented a fluctuating rising trend in the URHR from 2000 to 2014. The FMS in southern URHR was higher than that of northern URHR, and the change rate of FMS in the upstream of URHR(western URHR) was higher than the downstream of URHR(eastern URHR). The future FMS under scenarios of Medium-High Emissions(A2) and Medium-Low Emissions(B2) will decrease consistently. As land use/land cover changes in the URHR are negligible, we concluded that the change in FMS was mainly driven by climate change, such as storm and runoff. Our study highlights that climate scenarios analysis should be incorporated into the assessment of hydrologic-related services to facilitate regional water resources management.     

Spatio-temporal dynamics of regulating ecosystem services in Europe – The role of past and future land use change

Land use is a main driver for changes in supply and demand of regulating ecosystem services (ES). Most current ES inventories are static and do not address dynamics of ES supply resulting from historic and future land use change. This paper analyzes the role of land use change for the supply of two regulating services, flood regulation and climate regulation, in the European Union (EU) for the period between 1900 and 2000 as well as for four plausible scenarios of future land use change up to 2040. We show that spatio-temporal dynamics of climate regulation are high during this time period, and that future levels of climate regulation are higher than 100 years ago. For flood regulation, we show that increases in the demand over the past century, which are continued in the future scenarios, are the main contributor for spatial mismatches of supply and demand. Our results indicate that, in spite of land use change, the overall supply of the two regulating services is expected to be moderately stable, or to even increase in the coming decades. At the same time, demands for these services are rapidly increasing, and it is unlikely that projected supply is sufficient to meet these demands. The results also indicate that land use allocation that favors the supply of regulating services can be seen as a nature-based solution in which potentials for synergies between multiple ES can be operationalized.     

气候变化对淮河流域水资源及极端洪水事件的影响

利用法国国家气象研究中心气候模型（Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Climate Model, CNRM）典型代表性浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP）情景资料和可变下渗容量模型（Variable Infiltration Capacity Model,VIC）,分析了淮河流域未来气温、降水、水资源及可能洪水的变化趋势。结果表明,淮河流域未来气温将持续升高,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下未来2021~2050年较基准期（1961~1990年）升幅分别约为1.13℃、1.10℃和1.35℃;流域降水可能呈现略微增加趋势,3种排放情景下2021~2050年降水较基准期将分别增加5.81%、8.26%和6.94%;VIC模型在淮河流域具有较好的适用性,能较好地模拟淮河流域的水文过程,在率定期和检验期,模型对王家坝站和蚌埠站模拟的水量相对误差都在5%以内,日径流过程的Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率系数（NSE）在0.70以上,月径流过程的NSE达到0.85以上。气候变化将导致淮河流域水文循环强度增加,流域水资源总体将可能呈增加趋势,王家坝站和蚌埠站断面洪水事件的发生可能性将增大。     

Predicting plausible impacts of sets of climate and land use change scenarios on water resources

Our world is changing at an unprecedented rate in terms of climate and land use, but these changes can affect our water resources. Hence, we need a methodology that can predict both their individual and agglomerative ramifications. Using the Little Miami River (LMR) watershed as a case study, this paper describes a spatial analytical approach integrating mathematical modeling and geographical information sciences to quantitatively examine the relative importance of the separate and combined hydrologic and water quality impacts of climate and land use changes.The Hydrologic Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF) model was chosen in this study to simulate stream flow and nutrient transport process. Five hypothetical climate change scenarios were used to cover the possible ranges of variability in the year 2050. An enhanced population-coupled Markov-Cellular Automata (CA-Markov) land use model was developed to predict the 2050 land use pattern. When these scenarios were incorporated into the HSPF model, the future conditions in the LMR basin were postulated. The findings demonstrated that: 1) the LMR watershed would experience an increase in flow and nutrients under the 2050 land use projection, 2) stream flow and water quality impacts would be amplified when both climate and land use changes were simultaneously considered, 3) land use change (and in the case of the LMR watershed, urbanization) could help to alleviate water shortage during the dry years, 4) total phosphorus and nitrogen would increase under all future climate and land use scenarios; the highest increase was found under the combined wettest and future land use scenarios, and 5) the described approach is effective in simulating the hydrologic and water quality effects of climate and land use changes in a basin scale. These results are relevant to planners; they can be useful in formulating realistic watershed management policies and mitigation measures.     

气候与土地利用变化对汉江流域径流的影响

作为联结大气圈和地圈的纽带,水文循环同时承受气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）的双重影响,然而大多数的水文响应研究主要关注未来气候变化对径流的影响,忽略了未来LUCC的作用。因此,本文的研究目的是评估未来气候变化和LUCC对径流的共同影响。首先采用2种全球气候模式（BCC-CSM1.1和BNU-ESM）输出,基于DBC降尺度模型得到未来气候变化情景;然后,利用CA-Markov模型预测未来LUCC情景;最后,通过设置不同的气候和LUCC情景组合,采用SWAT模型模拟汉江流域的未来径流过程,定量评估气候变化和LUCC对径流的影响。结果表明：① 未来时期汉江流域的年降水量、日最高、最低气温相较于基准期（1966—2005年）,在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5浓度路径下,分别增加4.0%、1.8 ℃、1.6 ℃和3.7%、2.5 ℃、2.3 ℃;② 2010—2050年间,流域内林地和建设用地的面积占比将分别增加2.8%和1.2%,而耕地和草地面积占比将分别减少1.5%和2.5%;③ 与单一气候变化或LUCC情景相比,气候变化和LUCC共同影响下的径流变化幅度最大,在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5浓度路径下未来时期年平均径流分别增加5.10%、2.67%,且气候变化对径流的影响显著大于LUCC。本文的研究结果将有助于维护未来气候变化和LUCC共同影响下汉江流域的水资源规划与管理。     

北京市土地利用空间格局演化模拟及预测

土地利用空间格局的演化模拟可定量地从空间尺度揭示区域土地利用变化的驱动因素,是厘清未来时期内土地变化的重要途径。基于CLUE-S模型,以北京市为研究案例,结合1985、2000和2010年三期土地利用数据,运用Logistic逐步回归方法识别了北京市各种土地利用类型演化的驱动因素,对北京市土地利用空间格局进行模拟。在此基础上,基于北京市社会经济发展、土地利用规划、资源禀赋及生态保护等不同情景,对北京市2020年土地利用空间分布格局进行模拟及预测。结果表明：①不同的时期内,驱动因子对不同土地利用类型的影响呈现差异性,其中交通因素及社会经济因素对土地利用类型的转化率影响较显著,坡度对各个土地利用类型的影响较大。②通过对2010年北京市土地利用变化的模拟结果来看,Kappa指数为87.03%,说明预测结果与实际土地利用情况有较好的一致性。③预测结果显示,北京市的城市发展均表现为继续向外扩展,且以东南、东北为主要扩展方向,但扩张的程度存在差异。     

农业景观对土壤侵蚀的适应机制研究初探

随着气候变化对农业系统的影响不断加剧,为保障粮食安全,必须掌握变化中的自然与人文因素,判别农 业景观中可调整的关键机制,依据未来的可能情景,尽早订定农业景观优化方案。本研究以土壤侵蚀问题为切入 点,整合相关的环境因子,构建农业景观对土壤侵蚀适应性的研究框架。基本思路为首先通过目前气候变化对土壤 侵蚀的影响研究,为不同时空尺度上土壤侵蚀发生、发展趋势提供理论依据;其次,从增强未来农业景观对土壤侵 蚀适应能力的角度,详细讨论景观类型、空间配置和管理措施等与土壤侵蚀的关系,以提高农业景观优化配置的针 对性;最后,为科学评价农业景观对土壤侵蚀适应的程度,基于Agent 模型原理设计土壤侵蚀模拟模型,通过不同 土壤侵蚀情景下景观类型、结构、空间配置和管理措施等的适应性分析,为有效提升区域农业景观的土壤抗侵蚀能 力提供科学依据。     

土地利用和气候变化对森林地上生物量的影响模拟——以江西省泰和县为例

以土地利用变化和气候变化为特征的全球和区域环境变化及其影响已经成为国际社会和公众关注的焦点,同时也是土地科学、全球变化科学和全球生态学关注的关键问题。由于土地、气候和森林生态系统之间存在着复杂而密切的关系,土地利用变化和气候变化将不可避免地对森林结构和功能产生重要影响。如何采用合理的适应措施降低这些变化可能带来的损失,是目前全球变化研究亟待解决的问题之一。因此,研究土地利用和气候变化对森林的单独及综合影响具有重要的科学意义。本文综合利用基于主体的土地利用模型（ABM/LUCC）、生态系统过程模型（PnET-II）以及森林景观动态模型（LANDIS-II）构建了综合模拟研究框架,选择森林类型多样且具有长期观测数据积累的江西省泰和县为研究区,模拟并对比了土地利用和气候变化组合情景下未来森林地上总生物量的变化差异。结果表明：① 土地利用变化对泰和县森林地上总生物量的影响比气候变化所带来的影响更加显著。研究区森林地上总生物量在有土地利用变化干扰的情景下与RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5单独的气候情景下相比分别减少33.13%、32.92%和32.42%;② 尽管未来气候变化可能有利于森林地上总生物量的积累,但土地利用变化将使森林地上总生物量显著减少,并将抵消气候变化带来的正效应;③ 本文提出的综合模拟研究框架可以很好地模拟土地利用和气候变化对森林生态系统的影响,可为提升和优化人工林结构和功能、开展可持续森林管理提供科学建议。     

基于SSP-RCP不同情景的京津冀地区土地覆被变化模拟

如何实现自然与人文双重驱动下的特大城市群地区土地覆被变化的情景模拟,不仅是当前土地覆被变化研究领域的热点问题,也是城镇化可持续发展研究的核心主题之一。本文在对现有土地覆被变化情景模型缺陷进行分析和修正的基础上,构建了自然要素与人文要素耦合驱动的土地覆被情景曲面建模（SSMLC）方法。结合IPCC 2020年发布的共享社会经济路径（SSPs）与典型浓度路径（RCPs）组合的CMIP6 SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5的气候情景数据,以及人口、GDP、交通、政策等人文参数,分别实现了SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下的京津冀土地覆被变化的情景模拟。模拟结果表明：SSMLC对京津冀地区土地覆被变化模拟的总体精度为93.52%;京津冀地区的土地覆被在2020—2040时段内的变化强度最高（3.12%/10a）,2040年以后的变化强度将逐渐减缓;在2020—2100年间,建设用地增加速度最快,增加率为5.07%/10a。湿地的减少速度最快,减少率为3.10%/10a。2020—2100时段内的京津冀土地覆被在SSP5-8.5情景下的变化强度整体高于在SSP1-2.6和SSP2-4.5情景下的变化强度;GDP、人口、交通和政策等人文因子对京津冀地区耕地、建设用地、湿地和水体的影响强度高于对其他土地覆被类型的影响强度。研究结果证实了SSMLC模型能够有效模拟和定量刻画京津冀地区土地覆被空间分布格局在未来不同情景的时空变化趋势和强度,模拟结果可为京津冀协同一体化的国土空间优化配置与规划、以及生态环境建设提供辅助依据和数据支撑。     

Modelling the integrated effects of land use and climate change scenarios on forest ecosystem aboveground biomass,a case study in Taihe County of China

Global and regional environmental changes such as land use and climate change have significantly integrated and interactive effects on forest. These integrated effects will undoubtedly alter the distribution, function and succession processes of forest ecosystems. In order to adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and integrated effects. In this study, we proposed a framework by using coupling models to gain a better understanding of the complex ecological processes. We combined an agent-based model for land use and land cover change (ABM/LUCC), an ecosystem process model (PnET-II), and a forest dynamic landscape model (LANDIS-II) to simulate the change of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) which was driven by land use and climate change factors for the period of 2010–2050 in Taihe County of southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. We conducted a series of land use and climate change scenarios to compare the differences in forest AGB. The results show that: (1) land use, including town expansion, deforestation and forest conversion and climate change are likely to influence forest AGB in the near future in Taihe County. (2) Though climate change will make a good contribution to an increase in forest AGB, land use change can result in a rapid decrease in the forest AGB and play a vital role in the integrated simulation. The forest AGB under the integrated scenario decreased by 53.7% (RCP2.6 + land use), 57.2% (RCP4.5 + land use), and 56.9% (RCP8.5 + land use) by 2050, which is in comparison to the results under separate RCPs without land use disturbance. (3) The framework can offer a coupled method to better understand the complex and interactive ecological processes, which may provide some supports for adapting to land use and climate change, improving and optimizing plantation structure and function, and developing measures for sustainable forest management.     

气候变化背景下青冈分布变化及其对中国亚热带北界的指示意义

气候是影响植被类型和分布的关键因素,植被类型和分布格局也能反映气候的地域差异。随着气候变暖,全球气温和降水格局都将发生变化,植被类型和分布格局也将随之改变。而植物对气候变化的响应存在一定的滞后性,因此仅用气候指标研究亚热带北界及其移动具有一定的局限性。以青冈（Cyclobalanopsis glauca (Thunberg) Oersted）为研究对象,应用最大熵模型（Maxent）,研究了其对气候变化的响应并探讨了气候变化情景下青冈分布格局变化对中国亚热带北界移动的指示意义。结果表明：影响青冈分布的主导环境因子为年降水量、最冷季降水量、气温年变化范围和最冷月最低气温;随着气候变暖,青冈分布北界将向北移动,其分布质心亦向西北移动,预示着在气候变暖的背景下,到21世纪中叶中国亚热带北界将向北移动约1个纬度。     

土地利用与土地覆盖变化对气候影响的国别对比（英文）

Land use and land cover change(LULCC) strongly influence regional and global climate by combining both biochemical and biophysical processes. However, the biophysical process was often ignored, which may offset the biogeochemical effects, so measures to address climate change could not reach the target. Thus, the biophysical influence of LULCC is critical for understanding observed climate changes in the past and potential scenarios in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the mechanisms and effects of large-scale LULCC on climate change through changing the underlying surface, and thus the energy balance. The key scientific issues on understanding the impacts of human activities on global climate that must be addressed including:(1) what are the basic scientific facts of spatial and temporal variations of LULCC in China and comparative countries?(2) How to understand the coupling driving mechanisms of human activities and climate change on the LULCC and then to forecasting the future scenarios?(3) What are the scientific mechanisms of LULCC impacts on biophysical processes of land surface, and then the climate?(4) How to estimate the contributions of LULCC to climate change by affecting biophysical processes of land surface? By international comparison, the impacts of LULCC on climate change at the local, regional and global scales were revealed and evaluated. It can provide theoretical basis for the global change, and have great significance to mitigate and adapt to global climate changes.     

基于“H-E-V”框架的城市洪涝风险评估研究进展

在全球气候变化与城市扩张的背景下,城市洪涝问题频发并引发严重的社会问题与经济损失。当前城市洪涝管理的主要内容已从工程性防御性措施转向洪涝风险管理,而城市洪涝风险评估又是城市洪涝管理的关键环节。基于此背景,论文首先介绍了IPCC采纳的城市洪涝风险评估框架“危险性(Hazard)—暴露性(Exposure)—脆弱性(Vulnerability)”即“H-E-V”的概念内涵,在此基础上梳理了其危险性、暴露性、脆弱性3大要素的主要研究内容,探讨分析不同研究方法的优缺点。最后提出了城市洪涝风险评估的主要发展趋势及关键问题,主要有以下4个方面：①危险性方面,建立适应于城市地区的耦合型二维洪涝淹没模型是洪涝风险评估要求下的必然趋势;②暴露性分析在大数据及GIS技术支撑下正逐步精细化、动态化;③脆弱性正从早期侧重的物理维度定量评估转向社会、经济、文化、环境等多维度的评估;④此外,气候变化与城市扩张下的多情景城市洪涝风险评估是未来城市洪涝管理的研究热点与难题。     

未来百年不同排放情景下滦河流域径流特征分析

为了研究滦河流域未来百年（2010-2100年）不同排放情景下气候变化对径流的影响,利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式在3种排放情景下（A2高排放、A1B中排放、B1低排放）下所做的21世纪未来百年气候变化预估实验得到的数据,应用HBV模型对滦河流域进行了模拟研究,模型率定期和验证期的结果表明HBV模型在滦河流域具有很好的适用性。结合HBV模型和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式在3种排放情景下的百年气候变化预估数据,结果显示在3种排放情景下滦河流域百年平均径流深度相差不大,但变化趋势有较大不同,年际变化突出。整体而言,未来百年在3种情景下滦河流域的径流深度都将有不同程度的增加趋势,其中在B1低排放情景下,增加趋势显著;在周期方面,A2和A1B情景下,2-9年的年际变化周期较为明显,而在B1情景下周期不太明显。     

Land changes in Slovakia: Past processes and future directions

The aim of this study is to bring a unique overview of past, current and plausible future land use development in Slovakia. The study assessed land change processes and their spatial determinants related to the most significant socio-political periods that have shaped the former socialist country over the past 30 years, namely, socialism (1980–1990), postsocialism (1990–2000), EU accession (2000–2006), EU membership (2006–2012). Using boosted regression trees, the impact of different biophysical, socioeconomic, policy and distance-based factors was evaluated on land transitions, categorised as urbanisation, agricultural intensification and extensification, afforestation, deforestation and forest disturbance (natural and management-induced). Results show significant shifts in the landscape management associated with the institutional changes, especially in the postsocialist period.Agricultural intensification, which dominated the socialist period, was in subsequent periods substituted by afforestation and agricultural extensification. High relative annual rates of forest disturbance have dominated land-use change over the past 30 years, while deforestation was a minor land-use change during the late socialist period. Urbanisation has played a significant role and changed considerably through the studied periods: high urbanisation rates under socialism, a massive decline in the postsocialism and EU accession periods and increasingly high urbanisation rates during the EU membership period.Taking into account national and international (EU related) demands, we assessed land use development for 2040 within five different future land use scenarios. These scenarios were characterised as either extensions of current development trends, or as developments along axes that target globalisation or regionalisation, and more or less intervention. Results show that afforestation is by far the land-change process that will have the greatest impact on future Slovakian landscapes, mostly in rural areas. Among changes in agriculture, all scenarios uniformly suggest that extensification will exceed intensification mostly at the cost of arable land. In addition, urban areas will expand at the expense of arable land, particularly in the accessible city hinterlands.     

中国北方未来干旱化情景下的土地利用变化模拟

目前,中国北方未来干旱化过程对土地系统的可能影响还不是十分清楚,这将在一定程度上限制中国北方土地资源的合理开发利用。因此,利用系统动力学 (SD) 的原理和方法,首先构建了中国北方未来干旱化过程影响下的土地利用变化系统动力学模型。进而在不同系统状态下,模拟了中国北方13省未来30年不同干旱化过程和社会经济情景共同影响下的区域土地利用结构变化过程。1989~2001年的模型检验结果表明该SD模型具有一定的可靠性,能在一定程度上理解土地利用系统的复杂变化过程。2000~2030年在干旱化过程转折、不明显和加速3种情景下的情景模拟结果发现,干旱化过程对中国北方未来水资源总量变化影响明显。在干旱化过程3种情景下,北方13省水资源总量从4686.17亿m³下降到3887.88亿m³,水资源正逐渐成为稀缺资源,并成为区域可持续发展的重要制约因素。在中国北方人口增加和经济发展的持续压力下,建筑用地和交通用地在未来增长迅速。城镇,交通等生活型用地与耕地资源之间的矛盾将会十分突出。因此,在未来的发展中,寻求合理的土地利用结构和格局,适应气候变化和社会经济因素的共同压力,将是中国北方区域可持续发展过程中必须面临和解决的问题。     

Modeling the spatio-temporal changes in land uses and its impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China over 2000–2050

Land use and its dynamics have attracted considerable scientific attention for their significant ecological and socioeconomic implications. Many studies have investigated the past changes in land use, but efforts exploring the potential changes in land use and implications under future scenarios are still lacking. Here we simulate the future land use changes and their impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China (NEC) over the period of 2000–2050 using the CLUE–S (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model under the scenarios of ecological security (ESS), food security (FSS) and comprehensive development (CDS). The model was validated against remote sensing data in 2005. Overall, the accuracy of the CLUE–S model was evaluated at 82.5%. Obtained results show that future cropland changes mainly occur in the Songnen Plain and the Liaohe Plain, forest and grassland changes are concentrated in the southern Lesser Khingan Mountains and the western Changbai Mountains, while the Sanjiang Plain will witness major changes of the wetlands. Our results also show that even though CDS is defined based on the goals of the regional development plan, the ecological service value (ESV) under CDS is RMB 2656.18 billion in 2050. The ESV of CDS is lower compared with the other scenarios. Thus, CDS is not an optimum scenario for eco-environmental protection, especially for the wetlands, which should be given higher priority for future development. The issue of coordination is also critical in future development. The results can help to assist structural adjustments for agriculture and to guide policy interventions in NEC.     

Land degradation and climate change in South Africa

This paper considers the potential impact of future climate change on the nature and extent of land degradation in South Africa. The basis of the assessment is the comprehensive review published by the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (DEA&T) as a contribution to the South African effort in respect of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. The DEA&T report is founded on information collated from 34 workshops, one in each of the agricultural regions of South Africa, involving some 453 participants consisting mainly of agricultural extension officers and soil conservation technicians. This analysis reveals that land degradation is underpinned by poverty and its structural roots in colonial and apartheid political planning. Nevertheless, future climate change represents a key challenge to the developing economies of countries like South Africa. Regionally downscaled models predicting the nature and degree of rainfall changes in the future are used to assess the possible impact of future change on the South African land degradation situation. It is concluded that the most severely degraded areas of the country, including large areas of the former 'homeland' states, are likely to become even more susceptible under predicted climate change scenarios.     

土地利用变化情景下杭州湾北岸极端洪灾风险评估

杭州湾位于长三角平原,该区域分布着大量的潮滩与湿地.未来随着海平面不断上升,更易引发自然灾害,尤其是风暴潮灾害,将使该地区社会经济发展面临巨大冲击.论文以多年土地利用与资产数据为基础,基于土地利用和资产的未来变化预测,结合多种未来极端洪灾情景,开展杭州湾北岸承灾体与暴露时空演化模拟,评估了上海市杭州湾北岸洪涝灾害风险....     

2011曼谷水灾与广州重大水灾对比分析

广州与曼谷都是沿海城市,历来受水灾侵扰,2011曼谷水灾损失严重,给亚洲城市敲响防洪警钟。文中通过对曼谷地理条件、气候变化、海平面上升和地面下沉等因素的分析,对比2011曼谷洪灾与广州重大水灾的成灾机制,认为广州不会重蹈曼谷数月浸淹式水灾的覆辙;但今后的防洪规划需具有全面性和前瞻性,充分考虑全球气候变化和城市化带来的影响。建议广州排水管网规划考虑城市化对微观地貌的改变,提高城市集水区排水容量和标准;顺应广州自然地势,合理利用湿地排水功能,将湿地纳入防洪体系。