服务全球生物多样性和食物安全的可再生氮利用优先选择（英文）

The continuing use of petrochemicals in mineral nitrogen(N) production may be affected by supply or cost issues and climate agreements.Without mineral N,a larger area of cropland is required to produce the same amount of food,impacting biodiversity.Alternative N sources include solar and wind to power the Haber-Bosch process,and the organic options such as green manures,marine algae and aquatic azolla.Solar power was the most land-efficient renewable source of N,with using a tenth as much land as wind energy,and at least 100 th as much land as organic sources of N.In this paper,we developed a decision tree to locate these different sources of N at a global scale,or the first time taking into account their spatial footprint and the impact on terrestrial biodiversity while avoiding impact on albedo and cropland,based on global resource and impact datasets.This produced relatively few areas suitable for solar power in the western Americas,central southern Africa,eastern Asia and southern Australia,with areas most suited to wind at more extreme latitudes.Only about 2% of existing solar power stations are in very suitable locations.In regions such as coastal north Africa and central Asia where solar power is less accessible due to lack of farm income,green manures could be used,however,due to their very large spatial footprint only a small area of low productivity and low biodiversity was suitable for this option.Europe in particular faces challenges because it has access to a relatively small area which is suitable for solar or wind power.If we are to make informed decisions about the sourcing of alternative N supplies in the future,and our energy supply more generally,a decision-making mechanism is needed to take global considerations into account in regional land-use planning.     

1992-2015年全球耕地变化对陆地生态系统服务价值的影响（英文）

From 1992 to 2015, ecological environment has been threatened by the changes of cropland around the world. In order to evaluate the impact of cropland changes on ecosystem, we calculated the response of terrestrial ecosystem service values (TESVs) variation to cropland conversion based on land-use data from European Space Agency (ESA). The results showed that cropland changes were responsible for an absolute loss of $166.82 billion, equivalent to 1.17% of global TESVs in 1992. Among the different regions, the impact of cropland changes on TESVs was significant in South America and Africa but not obvious in Oceania, Asia and Europe. Cropland expansion from tropical forest was the main reason for decreases in TESVs globally, especially in South America, Africa and Asia. The effect of wetland converted to cropland was notable in North America and Europe while grassland converted to cropland played an important role in Oceania, Africa and Asia. In Europe, the force of urban expansion cannot be ignored as well. The conversion of cropland to tropical or temperate forest partly compensated for the loss of TESVs globally, especially in Asia.     

基于能值分析的江苏省耕地生态足迹区域差异

以江苏省耕地生态足迹为研究对象,在考虑不同地区的土地利用效率的基础上,把太阳辐射、降水量、土壤 肥力、土地利用效率、耕地面积等作为构成承载力的实质因素,计算了江苏省不同地区的耕地生态承载力。研究结 果表明：就人均耕地生态承载力而言,苏北地区普遍大于苏中和苏南地区,盐城市、淮安市和宿迁市最大,无锡市、 南京市和苏州市最小。就人均耕地生态足迹而言,苏南地区普遍小于苏北和苏中地区,盐城市、南通市和淮安市最 大,而无锡市、苏州市和常州市最小。江苏省13 个地市的生态差额指数都小于0.5,即耕地都处于不可持续性状态, 其区域差异是：南北两端好于中部,南端的苏州市、无锡市最好;而江苏中部,又是中间好于东西两侧,东侧的南通 市、盐城市最差。     

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Cropland at the Global Level from 1992 to 2015

Correlated increases in population and demand for food over recent decades have caused remarkable changes in cropland area globally. Utilizing the latest data product provided by the European Space Agency (ESA), this paper analyzes annual trends and spatiotemporal variations in cropland area and discusses cropland conversion, losses, and increases globally between 1992 and 2015 at a 300 m resolution. The results show that the global area of cropland increased rapidly between 1992 and 2004, more slowly between 2004 and 2012, and began to decrease gradually since 2012. First, an increasing trend in cropland area has been maintained solely in Africa; all other regions are characterized by decreasing trends in later periods despite different transition points and change rates. A reduction in cropland area frequently emerged earlier in high-income countries. Second, increase rates in cropland area have largely decreased in recent years while the overall rate of loss has remained almost the same. Hotspot areas of global cropland increases are mainly concentrated around the edge of the Amazon forest, Eurasian Steppe, and Sahara Desert. These hotspot areas of global cropland loss shifted from Europe to Asia while built-up areas have expanded at the expense of cropland.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of cropland change in the Guanzhong area,China, from 1650 to 2016

As one of the most critical impact factors of global change, historical land-use change is an indispensable input in climate and environment simulations. To better understand the cropland change in the Guanzhong area, gazetteers, statistics, and survey data were collected as data sources. Methods of registered tax-paying cropland data collection, selection of time points, and data interpolation and calibration were used to reconstruct changes in the cropland area. The cropland area data at the county level were allocated to 1 km×1 km grid cells. The total cropland area in the Guanzhong area was influenced by changes in population, wars, natural disasters, and land-use types, and it fluctuated from 1650 to 2016. From 1780 to 1830, the cropland expanded in the northern and western parts of Guanzhong area, and the cropland in the north of Qinling Mountains increased slightly. The spatial pattern of cropland reached its maximum range in 1980, and the cropland area declined in the whole study area, especially in the cities of Xi'an and Xianyang in 2016. The comparison between HYDE 3.2 and the data obtained in this study showed that the grid cells of HYDE 3.2 exhibit lower values of cropland area fractions in the Guanzhong Basin and higher values in high-altitude areas around the Guanzhong Basin as compared to those in this study.     

中国生态足迹和生物承载力构成比例变化分析

基于生态足迹模型,计算了中国1995-2006年人均生态足迹和生物承载力的各构成组分.运用统计-动力学建模方法,构建生态足迹和生物承载力各组分构成比例变化的普适预测模型.结果表明:①1995.2006年,中国人均生态足迹构成以能源足迹和耕地足迹为主,耕地、林地、建设等足迹比例在波动中不断下降,草地、水域足迹比例先上升后下降,能源足迹比例不断增加;人均生物承载力构成以耕地为主.林地、建设、水域承载力比例相差不多,草地承载力比例最小,其中耕地、草地承载力比例不断增加,林地、水域、建设等承载力比例不断下降,且变化幅度均很小.②2007-2015年,耕地、林地足迹比例继续下降,草地、水域、能源足迹比例将逐渐上升,建设足迹比例将在下降一段时间后出现增加趋势,耕地、林地、草地等承载力比例将不断增加,其中耕地、林地承载力比例增加幅度很小.草地承载力比例相对增幅较大;水域、建设承载力比例均呈下降趋势.文章还探讨了可能导致中国人均生态足迹和生物承载力构成比例出现上述变化的原因,给出相应的政策建议,并分析了二者之间的内在变化规律.研究结果对指导我国调整产业结构、土地利用规划和改善生态环境有较重要的启示和借鉴意义.     

Curie-temperature depth estimation using a self-similar magnetization model

The Earth's crust is magnetized down to the Curie-temperature depth at about 10 to 50 km. This limited depth extent of the crustal magnetization is discernible in the power spectra of magnetic maps of South Africa and Central Asia. At short wavelengths, the power increases as rapidly towards longer wavelengths as expected for a self-similar magnetized crust with unlimited depth extent. Above wavelengths of about 100 km the power starts increasing less rapidly, indicating the absence of deep-seated sources. To quantify this effect we derive the theoretical power spectrum due to a slab carved out of a self-similar magnetization distribution. This model power spectrum matches the power spectra of South Africa and Central Asia for a self-similarity parameter of β = 4 and Curie temperature depths of 15 to 20 km.     

陕西省碳足迹时空变化研究

为了解近年来陕西省碳足迹的状况,采用《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》和中国《省级温室气体编制指南》推荐的方法测算了陕西省及其各市的碳足迹。结论如下：1995~2009年,陕西省碳足迹从4 129.38×10⁴t上升到22 460.23×10⁴t,增加了443.91%。从空间上全省碳足迹可分为3类：陕南始终为负值;陕北和渭南市较高;关中除渭南市以外的地区较低。14 a间全省人均碳足迹由1.18 t增加到5.95 t;各市人均碳足迹,陕北较高,关中较低,陕南为负值。全省碳足迹密度从2.00 t/hm²增高到10.90 t/hm²。陕西省的人均和单位面积的碳足迹远高于应对全球气候变化的目标,但空间上差异很大。以2009年为例,全省人均碳足迹是应对全球气候变化目标的2.98倍,而陕北则超过10倍,高于美国;关中为1.29~4.57倍。全省2009年碳足迹密度是应对全球气候变化目标的4.89倍;渭南、咸阳、西安3市高达9.63~16.95倍;榆林、铜川、延安和宝鸡4市为3.54~7.10倍;陕南植被的固碳作用消除了当地的碳排放外,还有剩余碳汇,但尚不能抵消陕北及关中的较高的碳足迹,因此总体看,对气候变化有负面影响,陕西的碳减排任务仍较重。     

中国能源-粮食生产对水资源竞争的关系——基于水足迹的视角

通过对水-能源-粮食系统的定量分析,能更好的探究三者之间的协同作用,对提高区域资源综合利用效率、促进区域可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于水足迹视角探讨了1990—2017年中国31个地区能源-粮食生产对水资源的竞争关系,并借助ESTDA模型框架对其时空动态特征进行分析。结果表明:①中国化石能源水足迹的时间演变特征可分为缓慢下降-快速上升-平稳下降3个阶段,其中化石能源灰水足迹平均占化石能源水足迹的70%以上;电力水足迹呈持续上升态势,其中电力蓝水足迹平均占电力水足迹的70%以上;粮食蓝水足迹上升幅度明显,平均占农业用水总量的70%以上。②能源-粮食水足迹总量空间分布格局受区域资源禀赋差异影响较大。③时间序列上,中国能源-粮食生产对水资源竞争指数呈逐年上升态势;空间分布上,同时兼顾能源生产与粮食生产的黄河中下游区、东北地区为竞争指数高值集聚区,其余地区竞争指数相对较小。④ LISA时间路径分析显示,中国南方地区能源-粮食水资源竞争指数的空间格局的稳定性比北方更强;各地区在不同程度上均受局部结构的时空依赖效应影响;竞争指数空间格局变化具有较强的整合性且空间凝聚性较强。⑤能源-粮食生产对水资...     

The basic characteristics and spatial patterns of global cultivated land change since the 1980s

In this paper, we analyzed the spatial patterns of cultivated land change between 1982 and 2011 using global vector-based land use/land cover data. (1) Our analysis showed that the total global cultivated land area increased by 528.768×10⁴ km² with a rate of 7.920×10⁴ km²/a, although this increasing trend was not significant. The global cultivated land increased fastest in the 1980s. Since the 1980s, the cultivated land area in North America, South America and Oceania increased by 170.854×10⁴ km², 107.890×10⁴ km², and 186.492×10⁴ km², respectively. In contrast, that in Asia, Europe and Africa decreased by 23.769×10⁴ km², 4.035×10⁴ km² and 86.76×10⁴ km², respectively. Furthermore, the cultivated land area in North America, South America and Oceania exhibited significant increasing trends of 7.236× 10⁴ km²/a, 2.780×10⁴ km²/a and 3.758×10⁴ km²/a, respectively. On the other hand, that of Asia, Europe and Africa exhibited decreasing trend rates of–5.641×10⁴ km²/a,–0.831×10⁴ km²/a and–0.595×10⁴ km²/a, respectively. Moreover, the decreasing trend in Asia was significant. (2) Since the 1980s, the increase in global cultivated lands was mainly due to converted grasslands and woodlands, which accounted for 53.536% and 26.148% of the total increase, respectively. The increase was found in southern and central Africa, eastern and northern Australia, southeastern South America, central US and Alaska, central Canada, western Russia, northern Finland and northern Mongolia. Among them, Botswana in southern Africa experienced an 80%–90% increase, making it the country with the highest increase worldwide. (3) Since the 1980s, the total area of cultivated lands converted to other types of land was 1071.946×10⁴ km². The reduction was mainly converted to grasslands and woodlands, which accounted for 57.482% and 36.000%, respectively. The reduction occurred mainly in southern Sudan in central Africa, southern and central US, southern Russia, and southern European countries including Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia and Hungary. The greatest reduction occurred in southern Africa with a 60% reduction. (4) The cultivated lands in all the continents analyzed exhibited a trend of expansion to high latitudes. Additionally, most countries displayed an expansion of newly increased cultivated lands and the reduction of the original cultivated lands.     

中国南方不同土地利用/覆被类型对气温升温的影响

基于我国南方六省国家气象台站历史气象资料、1:10万土地利用/覆被数据和NCEP再分析气温资料,通过比较气温变化在不同观测环境气象站之间的差异,分析中国南方三种主要土地利用/覆被类型对气温趋势的影响。结果显示:土地利用/覆被类型对气温趋势具有稳定的影响,建设用地的年均温、年均最高和最低气温的升温幅度均最高,耕地次之,林地最小。进一步利用再分析资料剔除区域大尺度气候背景影响后,建设用地的年均温升温趋势仍最大(0.105℃/10a),其次是耕地(0.056℃/10a),林地的升温趋势最小(-0.025℃/10a),且为负。这表明对于研究区气温的升温趋势,林地具有抑制作用,建设用地具有增强作用,且增强作用较耕地强。林地的各季节平均气温的变化幅度同样低于非林地。     

南海波浪能资源与其他清洁能源的优缺点比较研究

基于前人和自己已有的工作,将南海的波浪能资源与其他各种清洁能源的优缺点进行比较,为清洁能源的开发与利用提供参考．通过比较发现：南海具有较为丰富的、适宜开发的波浪能资源,且南海也属于中国太阳能资源和风能资源较丰富的地区,在南海实行海浪发电为主,波浪能、太阳能和风能联合发电,必将具有广阔的前景．     

国际土地争夺发展现状与影响因素分析

本文基于2000-2011年全球土地交易数据分析了全球土地争夺发展现状,并结合土地交易面积等统计指标和相关文献资料,应用统计分析和文献分析相结合的方法,探究了国际土地争夺的影响因素。研究结果表明：（1）国际土地投资者主要来自人口压力较大的亚洲,国际土地被投资者主要集中在南美洲、非洲和亚洲;（2）2000-2011年国际土地交易面积虽有起伏,但整体增幅较大;（3）国际交易土地的用途复杂多样,以农业为主,兼有林业和开采业;（4）土地争夺影响因素众多,较为突出的是粮食安全因素,除此之外,自然保护区发展、人口迁移等亦是土地争夺的潜在影响因素。     

南海波浪能资源与其他清洁能源的优缺点比较研究

基于前人和自己已有的工作,将南海的波浪能资源与其他各种清洁能源的优缺点进行比较,为清洁能源的开发与利用提供参考．通过比较发现：南海具有较为丰富的、适宜开发的波浪能资源,且南海也属于中国太阳能资源和风能资源较丰富的地区,在南海实行海浪发电为主,波浪能、太阳能和风能联合发电,必将具有广阔的前景．     

风电场对环境的影响研究进展

风能作为清洁和环境友好的可再生能源,可以减少对化石燃料的依赖,因而近年来发展迅速。但风电设施在安装和运行过程中,评价其对环境产生的影响却尚未得到足够的重视。本文综述了风电场施工和运行过程对气候变化及陆地生态系统的可能影响,同时探讨了风电设施所产生的噪声污染及辐射效应,认为未来风电研究的重要方向为：①评价风电场对气候的影响,还需要建立或改进更精细的气候模型;②探讨风电场对动物的影响,需要识别到底哪些环境因子对动物活动起到了决定性的作用,这些因子在不同风电场中是否具有普遍性;③分析风电场对植被的影响,需要综合利用遥感监测及生态学调查方法,才能准确识别不同陆地生态系统植被对风电场的响应机制;④研究风电场对生态系统碳、氮循环的影响,要加强地表实测数据的获取,尤其是连续多年的数据获取,形成长期的观测序列,进行时空尺度的分析;⑤风电场在全球不同区域,对各环境要素的影响并不完全一致,通过对典型区域的研究来反映风电场对环境影响的共性问题,是目前较为可行的方法;⑥在确保风能作为新能源发展重点的同时,还需保护整个陆地生态系统的生产力和生物多样性,在此基础上才能准确评价、处理风电场与可持续发展的关系;⑦在风电场建设前的环评阶段,需要补充完善现有环评导则和标准,充分考虑风能、太阳能等新兴能源对环境长期而复杂的影响;⑧中国作为世界风能利用的第一大国,需要适时建立长期定位观测试验站,以期开展风电场对环境影响的定量化、全过程、时空尺度的细致研究。本文可为人类科学合理的利用风能、处理风电场建设与可持续发展的关系是提供一些思路。     

新疆冬季气温年际异常的主模态及其成因分析

基于新疆1961—2016年89个观测站冬季平均气温经验正交分解的空间模态,讨论了与各空间模态及其相联系的北半球中高纬度环流特征,结果表明：新疆冬季平均气温的年际异常空间模态分为全区一致类、南北反相类、东西反相类,根据这三类空间模态的正负位相不同分别分为一致偏冷型、一致偏暖型、北冷南暖型、北暖南冷型、东冷西暖型和东暖西冷型等6个空间分布型。新疆冬季平均气温各空间分布型的环流影响因子既表现了极地和中纬度环流相互作用,也有纬圈方向的波列传播的影响。当北半球中纬度西风偏弱,中高纬度环流经向度加大,乌拉尔山地区的高压脊发展和东亚大槽偏深,50°N以南为负高度距平,新疆冬季平均气温一致偏低;反之则一致偏高。北冷南暖型在40°N以北的区域与一致偏冷型的环流特征基本类似,但在中亚至新疆40°N偏南的区域位势高度偏高;北暖南冷型出现时,乌拉尔山负高度距平和东亚大槽偏弱,新疆上空为浅脊控制,新疆南部受脊后的浅槽影响。东冷西暖型和东暖西冷型区别在于中纬度的500 hPa正高度距平中心的位置和700 hPa气流方向。北极涛动（AO）、区域西风指数、乌拉尔山关键区因子、欧亚纬向环流指数、西藏高原-1指数、西藏高原-2指数、斯堪的纳维亚遥相关型指数(SCA)、亚洲区极涡面积指数等8个气候指数都对新疆冬季平均气温产生了重要的影响。     

Land Cover Status in the Koshi River Basin,Central Himalayas

The Koshi River Basin is in the middle of the Himalayas, a tributary of the Ganges River and a very important cross-border watershed. Across the basin there are large changes in altitude, habitat complexity, ecosystem integrity, land cover diversity and regional difference and this area is sensitive to global climate change. Based on Landsat TM images, vegetation mapping, field investigations and 3S technology, we compiled high-precision land cover data for the Koshi River Basin and analyzed current land cover characteristics. We found that from source to downstream, land cover in the Koshi River Basin in 2010 was composed of water body (glacier), bare land, sparse vegetation, grassland, wetland, shrubland, forest, cropland, water body (river or lake) and built-up areas. Among them, grassland, forest, bare land and cropland are the main types, accounting for 25.83%, 21.19%, 19.31% and 15.09% of the basin’s area respectively. The composition and structure of the Koshi River Basin land cover types are different between southern and northern slopes. The north slope is dominated by grassland, bare land and glacier; forest, bare land and glacier are mainly found on northern slopes. Northern slopes contain nearly seven times more grassland than southern slopes; while 97.13% of forest is located on southern slopes. Grassland area on northern slope is 6.67 times than on southern slope. The vertical distribution of major land cover types has obvious zonal characteristics. Land cover types from low to high altitudes are cropland, forest, Shrubland and mixed cropland, grassland, sparse vegetation, bare land and water bodies. These results provide a scientific basis for the study of land use and cover change in a critical region and will inform ecosystem protection, sustainability and management in this and other alpine transboundary basins.     

毛乌素沙地光伏电站项目区风速流场及风蚀防治措施

针对毛乌素沙地光伏电站项目,观测项目区的风速、风速廓线及风速流场特征,探讨有效的风蚀防治措施及其合理布局。结果表明:(1)太阳能板的存在使项目区风速流场的空间分布发生了明显变化,显著增加了板间近地面出风口处的风速,降低了板间远地面进风口处的风速,太阳能板间呈现出明显的掏蚀区和堆积区。(2)与项目区外围相比,太阳能板使20 cm及200 cm高度的风速分别降低了44.06%及63.68%。项目区外围及太阳能板正中间风速随高度的增加均呈上升趋势,而且太阳能板间60 cm高度以下风速增加更明显,不利于地表沙土的固定。(3)项目区外围麦草方格沙障、砾石压盖及红泥覆盖均起到一定的固沙作用,其中,以砾石压盖措施的固沙效果最优。(4)太阳能板间,除麦草方格沙障外,其余各措施均能起到固沙作用,其中以掏蚀区+砾石/堆积区+红泥覆盖的组合措施的固沙效果最优。     

中国经济权力空间格局演化研究——基于国家间相互依存的敏感性与脆弱性分析

在全球化时代,地缘政治逻辑发生了变化,不对称相互依存替代军事实力成为国家权力的重要来源,在此背景下和平崛起的中国正在以经济实力改写世界政治版图。本文基于国家间相互依存理论,利用双边贸易数据分析中国与世界各国经济相互依存的非对称性,以此构建中国经济权力评价模型,研究中国崛起过程中经济权力的空间演变格局。主要结论为：① 中国对外贸易的地理分布明显呈现由过度集中于东亚、西欧和北美的三极格局向更加均衡格局转变,但全球对华贸易依存度最高的国家依然集中在低纬度的亚非拉地区;② 世界各国对中国的贸易高敏感区呈现出由亚太向非洲、拉美地区推进的趋势,而高脆弱区域则呈现出由点状散布向连片生长转变的趋势;③ 中国经济权力空间已由周边扩展至全球,并向发达世界渗透,而同时期美国经济权力空间却呈现收缩趋势。     

基于分层分区法的中国历史耕地数据的网格化重建

网格化历史耕地数据集能为历史时期耕地变化研究提供更精确的支持,并且为全球环境气候变化研究模型模拟提供驱动数据。本文综合考虑了中国历代土地利用开发的特点及自然人文因子对耕地的影响,设计了一套对中国耕地先分区再分层分配的网格化方法。基于国内3个主流区域耕地数据研究成果,采用上述方法建立了1820年（清仁宗嘉庆二十五年）和1936年（民国二十五年）中国10 km×10 km分辨率的耕地数据集,并绘制了分布图。本文还利用国内具有代表性的区域数据集对重建结果进行对比验证。结果表明,该方法可以保证耕地数量的权威性,并且建立具有区域性的高精度历史耕地数据集。