Possible link between multi-decadal climate cycles and periodic reversals of solar magnetic field polarity

The linkage between multi-decadal climate variability and activity of the sun has been long debated based upon observational evidence from a large number of instrumental and proxy records. It is difficult to evaluate the exact role of each of solar parameters on climate change since instrumentally measured solar related parameters such as Total Solar irradiance (TSI), Ultra Violet (UV), solar wind and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) fluxes are more or less synchronized and only extend back for several decades. Here we report tree-ring carbon-14 based record of 11-year/22-year solar cycles during the Maunder Minimum (17th century) and the early Medieval Maximum Period (9–10th century) to reconstruct the state of the sun and the flux of incoming GCRs. The result strongly indicates that the influence of solar cycles on climate is persistent beyond the period after instrumental observations were initiated. We find that the actual lengths of solar cycles vary depending on the status of long-term solar activity, and that periodicity of the surface air temperatures are also changing synchronously. Temperature variations over the 22-year cycles seem, in general, to be more significant than those associated with the 11-year cycles and in particular around the grand solar minima such as the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD). The polarity dependence of cooling events found in this study suggests that the GCRs can not be excluded from the possible drivers of decadal to multi-decadal climate change.     

Statistics of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle (1844–1993)

A previous application of extreme-value statistics to the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle for nine solar cycles is extended to fourteen solar cycles (1844–1993). The intensity of a geomagnetic storm is measured by the magnitude of the daily aa index, rather than the half-daily aa index used previously. Values of the conventional aa index (1868– 1993), supplemented by the Helsinki Ak index (1844–1880), provide an almost continuous, and largely homogeneous, daily measure of geomagnetic activity over an interval of 150 years. As in the earlier investigation, analytic expressions giving the probabilities of the three greatest storms (extreme values) per solar cycle, as continuous functions of storm magnitude (ad), are obtained by least-squares fitting of the observations to the appropriate theoretical extreme-value probability functions. These expressions are used to obtain the statistical characteristics of the extreme values; namely, the mode, median, mean, standard deviation and relative dispersion. Since the Ak index may not provide an entirely homogeneous extension of the aa index, the statistical analysis is performed separately for twelve solar cycles (1868–1993), as well as nine solar cycles (1868–1967). The results are utilized to determine the expected ranges of the extreme values as a function of the number of solar cycles. For fourteen solar cycles, the expected ranges of the daily aa index for the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle decrease monotonically in magnitude, contrary to the situation for the half-daily aa index over nine solar cycles. The observed range of the first extreme daily aa index for fourteen solar cycles is 159–352 nT and for twelve solar cycles is 215–352 nT. In a group of 100 solar cycles the expected ranges are expanded to 137–539 and 177–511 nT, which represent increases of 108% and 144% in the respective ranges. Thus there is at least a 99% probability that the daily aa index willAlso Visiting Reader in Physics, University of Sussex, Palmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH, UK     

Spectrum of geomagnetic activity in the period range 5–60 days: possible lunar influences

The series of daily Ap-indices has been subdivided into pentades (1932–1936 etc.) and spectra with fine-frequency resolution have been calculated for the indices in each of these intervals. Daily sunspot numbers have been processed in the same way. The average spectrum from all spectra in the pentades, as well as the spectrum from the whole interval have been calculated, and significant peaks have been determined. There is a significant difference between the spectra in the pentades containing the solar activity minimum (1932–1936, 1942–1946 etc.) and those containing the solar activity maximum (1937–1941, 1947–1951 etc.). Most peaks can be interpreted as a response to solar rotation and to the structure of solar wind speed (two high-speed streams per solar rotation), both modulated by the 11-year, annual and semi-annual waves. No significant peak corresponding to the period of the synodic month, or its half has been found. This result suggests that the influence of lunar cycles on some natural phenomena (if any) is not mediated by geomagnetic activity.     

Solar EUV Flux Variations in 11–Year Solar Activity Cycle According to Measurements On-Board PROGNOZ Satellite Series, INTERBALL-1 and ELECTRO Satellites during 1978–1997 Period

The paper presents data on flux variations of ionizing EUV radiation for wavelengths shorter than 130 nm and in L-alpha hydrogen line on the basis of measurements performed on-board a Russian Earth-orbiting and interplanetary spacecrafts in the period since 1978 to 1997. These data were received by using common heritage instrumentation installed on four PROGNOZ satellites, INTERBALL-1, PHOBOS, and the geosynchronous meteorological satellite ELECTRO. Though the time series of observations is not continuous, it gives a possibility to estimate flux variations in certain periods of time and during 11–year cycle. During quiet periods of solar activity (except for flares) a level of diurnal variations is rather low, it being equal to about 3%. Radiation changes in L-alpha line from maximum to minimum in an 11–year cycle of solar activity achieves 200% and increases in the range of short waves. Data measured onboard the Russian satellites are compared with data obtained by Solar Mesospheric Explorer.     

SSBUV and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 Solar Variability Measurements

The Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 instruments measured solar spectral UV irradiance during the maximum and declining phase of solar cycle 22. The SSBUV data accurately represent the absolute solar UV irradiance between 200–405 nm, and also show the long-term variations during eight flights between October 1989 and January 1996. These data have been used to correct long-term sensitivity changes in the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 data, which provide a near-daily record of solar UV variations over the 170–400 nm region between December 1988 and October 1994. The NOAA-11 data demonstrate the evolution of short-term solar UV activity during solar cycle 22.     

Ionospheric measurements during the CRISTA/MAHRSI campaign: their implications and comparison with previous campaigns

The CRISTA/MAHRSI experiment on board a space shuttle was accompanied by a broad campaign of rocket, balloon and ground-based measurements. Supporting lower ionospheric ground-based measurements were run in Europe and Eastern Asia between 1 October–30 November, 1994. Results of comparisons with long ionospheric data series together with short-term comparisons inside the interval October-November, 1994, showed that the upper middle atmosphere (h =80–100 km) at middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in the interval of the CRISTA/MAHRSI experiment (4–12 November, 1994) was very close to its expected climatological state. In other words, the average results of the experiment can be used as climatological data, at least for the given area/altitudes. The role of solar/geomagnetic and “meteorological” control of the lower ionosphere is investigated and compared with the results of MAP/WINE, MAC/SINE and DYANA campaigns. The effects of both solar/geomagnetic and global meteorological factors on the lower ionosphere are found to be weak during autumn 1994 compared to those in MAP/WINE and DYANA winters, and they are even slightly weaker than those in MAP/SINE summer. The comparison of the four campaigns suggests the following overall pattern: in winter the lower ionosphere at northern middle latitudes appears to be fairly well “meteorologically” controlled with a very weak solar influence. In summer, solar influence is somewhat stronger and dominates the weak “meteorological” influence, but the overall solar/meteorological control is weaker than in winter. In autumn we find the weakest overall solar/meteorological control, local effects evidently dominate.     

On the Spectral Decomposition of Geopotential and Temperature Fields in the Stratosphere

The spectral structure of stratospheric fields (temperature and geopotential) is analyzed in terms of spherical harmonics in an effort to study the long-term behaviour of large-scale circulation patterns, as well as their connections to some extra-terrestrial effects. The daily meteorological data from the Free University Berlin (FUB) cover more or less the period 1976–1996 and are available for stratospheric levels of 50, 30 and 10 hPa. The analysis of the annual cycle of spherical harmonics is introduced, and changes of the principal wave components are compared with the changes in different sets of solar, geomagnetic and global circulation indices. This paper also deals with interannual variability with special emphasis on quasibiennial oscillations (QBO) and El Nino and Southern Oscillations (ENSO). Although this is a rather preliminary study, the decomposition of the stratospheric field into complex spherical harmonics seems to be a powerful technique in investigating and qualifying the response of the global atmospheric system to the changes in solar and geomagnetic activity, and in qualifying the relationships between large-scale circulation patterns and various oscillations such as QBO or ENSO, Using this technique, reasonable strong connections were found between wave numbers and interannual factors, and these connections were tentatively interpreted in terms of statistics. A very high degree of correlation was found for the four-trough shape of the polar vortex.     

The spatial relationship between active regions and coronal holes and the occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms throughout the solar activity cycle

We study the annual frequency of occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms (Dst < –100 nT) throughout the solar activity cycle for the last three cycles and find that it shows different structures. In cycles 20 and 22 it peaks during the ascending phase, near sunspot maximum. During cycle 21, however, there is one peak in the ascending phase and a second, higher, peak in the descending phase separated by a minimum of storm occurrence during 1980, the sunspot maximum. We compare the solar cycle distribution of storms with the corresponding evolution of coronal mass ejections and flares. We find that, as the frequency of occurrence of coronal mass ejections seems to follow very closely the evolution of the sunspot number, it does not reproduce the storm profiles. The temporal distribution of flares varies from that of sunspots and is more in agreement with the distribution of intense geomagnetic storms, but flares show a maximum at every sunspot maximum and cannot then explain the small number of intense storms in 1980. In a previous study we demonstrated that, in most cases, the occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms is associated with a flaring event in an active region located near a coronal hole. In this work we study the spatial relationship between active regions and coronal holes for solar cycles 21 and 22 and find that it also shows different temporal evolution in each cycle in accordance with the occurrence of strong geomagnetic storms; although there were many active regions during 1980, most of the time they were far from coronal holes. We analyse in detail the situation for the intense geomagnetic storms in 1980 and show that, in every case, they were associated with a flare in one of the few active regions adjacent to a coronal hole.     

SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL AND CLIMATIC PHENOMENA IN RELATION TO SOLAR INERTIAL MOTION

The time series of solar and volcanic activities have been processed to show, mostly by means of statistical characteristics, the exceptional and recurring pattern of these phenomena in the intervals of the exceptional and recurring pattern of solar motion, i.e. in the intervals of the Sun's motion along the trefoils which reoccur in steps of 178.7 years. Nearly the same sets of five sunspot cycles have been found in the latest trefoil intervals (1730–1780 and 1910–1960), their length being constant and equal to 10 years (cycles No. 15–19). The steadily attenuated volcanic activity have been pointed out in the three latest trefoil intervals. The long-term maxima of surface air temperature occured in the central decades of the trefoil intervals. The results indicate a primary role of solar motion in a causal chain of ST-relations and a need of taking the Solar System as a whole into account to explain climatic changes. The solar motion can be computed in advance. Predictive assesments, so far in form of analogies, have been made: Because the solar motion in the next decades will be chaotic, lower and longer solar cycles (with irregular length), ocurrence of huge volcanic events and a decrease of global surface air temperature can be expected.     

Solar wind velocity distribution on the heliospheric current sheet during Carrington rotations 1787-1795

The solar wind velocity distribution in the heliosphere is best represented using a v-map, where velocity contours are plotted in heliographic latitude-longitude coordinates. It has already been established that low-speed regions of the solar wind on the source surface correspond to the maximum bright regions of the K-corona and the neutral line of the coronal magnetic field. In this analysis, v-maps on the source surface for Carrington rotations (CRs) 1787-1795, during 1987, have been prepared using the interplanetary scintillation measurements at Research Institute of Atmospherics (RIA), Nagoya Univ., Japan. These v-maps were then used to study the time evolution of the low-speed (\leq450 km s⁻¹) belt of the solar wind and to deduce the distribution of solar wind velocity on the heliospheric current sheet. The low-speed belt of the solar wind on the source surface was found to change from one CR to the next, implying a time evolution. Instead of a slow and systematic evolution, the pattern of distribution of solar wind changed dramatically at one particular solar rotation (CR 1792) and the distributions for the succeeding rotations were similar to this pattern. The low-speed region, in most cases, was found to be close to the solar equator and almost parallel to it. However, during some solar rotations, they were found to be organised in certain longitudes, leaving regions with longitudinal width greater than 30^○ free of low-speed solar wind, i.e. these regions were occupied by solar wind with velocities greater than 450 km s⁻¹. It is also noted from this study that the low-speed belt, in general, followed the neutral line of the coronal magnetic field, except in certain cases. The solar wind velocity on the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) varied in the range 300–585 km s⁻¹ during the period of study, and the pattern of velocity distribution varied from rotation to rotation.     

Temporal associations of life with solar and geophysical activity

In biology, circadian rhythms with a period of one cycle in 20–28 h are known to be ubiquitous and partly endogenous. Rhythms with a frequency lower than one cycle per day are called ‘infradian rhythms’. Among them are components with one cycle in about 3.5, 7, 14 and 28 days, the multiseptans, which, like the circadians, must be regarded as a general characteristic of life: they characterize unicells as well as much more differentiated organisms. We hypothesize that heliogeophysical factors other than the solar visible light, held responsible for the evolution of circadian periodicity, underlie the infradian rhythms of biosystems. The periodicities in the solar wind and variations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) which are associated with the solar rotation are very similar in length to the biological periodicities. We investigate the temporal relations of variations in solar activity and in biological systems to test associations between events in the IMF, in geomagnetic disturbance, in myocardial infarction and in physiology. By cross-spectral analysis, we also find relations at certain frequencies between changes in human physiology on the one hand, and (1) the vertical component of the induction vector of the IMF, B_z, and (2) a global index of geomagnetic disturbance, Kp, on the other hand. We wish to stimulate interest in these periodicities of both biological systems and geophysical endpoints among physicists and biologists alike, so that problems relevant to clinicians and other biologists, including evolutionists, are eventually solved by their cooperation with the geophysical community.     

On possible drivers of Sun-induced climate changes

We tested the validity of two current hypotheses on the dependence of climate change on solar activity. One of them states that variations in the tropospheric temperature are caused directly by changes of the solar radiance (total or spectral). The other suggests that cosmic ray (CR) fluctuations, caused by the solar/heliospheric modulation, affect the climate via cloud formation. Confronting these hypotheses with seven different sets of the global/hemispheric temperature reconstructions for the last 400 years, we found that the former mechanism is in general more prominent than the latter. Therefore, we can conclude that in so far as the Sun–climate connection is concerned tropospheric temperatures are more likely affected by variations in the UV radiation flux rather than by those in the CR flux.     

Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the ipcc on global warming

Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 1-2-2-2-1 filtered solar cycle lengths and the 11-year running average of northern hemisphere land air temperatures, there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The solar hypothesis (as we shall term this assumption) claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier article we have demonstrated that for data covering the period 1860–1980 the solar hypothesis does not rule out any significant contribution from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The present analysis goes a step further. We analyse the period 1579–1987 and find that the solar hypothesis—instead of contradicting—appears to support the assumption of a significant warming due to human activities. We have tentatively corrected the historical northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies by removing the assumed effects of human activities. These are represented by northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies calculated as the contributions from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols by using an upwelling diffusion-energy balance model similar to the model of Wigley and Raper, 1993 employed in the Second Assessment Report of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It turns out that the agreement of the filtered solar cycle lengths with the corrected temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies, with the mean square deviation reduced by 36% for a climate sensitivity of 2.5°C, the central value of the IPCC assessment, and by 43% for the best-fit value of 1.7°C. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of man-made global warming.     

Mismatch between variations of solar indices, stratospheric ozone and UV-B observed at ground

In solar cycles 22–23, all solar indices showed maxima near 1990 and 2000 and minima in 1996. The maximum to minimum variation was only 1–2% in the UV range 240–350 nm. Dobson ozone intensities did not show any clear relationship with solar cycle and ozone variations were less than 10%. The UV-B (295–325 nm) observed at ground by Brewer spectrophotometers at some locations had variations of 50–100% for 295–300 nm, and 20–50% for 305–325 nm. The maxima were in different years at different locations (even with separations of only 300 km), did not match with the solar cycle, and were far too large to be explained on the basis of ozone changes (1% decrease of ozone is expected to cause 2% increase of UV-B). Thus, if the data are not bad, the UV-B changes do not match with solar activity or ozone changes and must be mostly due to other local effects (clouds, etc.?). When data are averaged over wide geographical regions, UV-B variation ranges are smaller (10–20%, probably because localised, highly varying cloud effects get filtered out), and are roughly as expected from ozone variations.     

Influence of environmental factors on the phytoplankton spring bloom in Lake Zürich

The development of the phytoplankton spring bloom in Lake Zürich in 1983 was investigated using frequent sampling with short sampling intervals, which allowed the influence of short-term meteorological events on the bloom to be studied. The bloom can be divided into four distinct growth periods (March 1–April 28) and a period of collapse (April 29–May 16). During the four growth periods, growth pulses were found to be associated with high solar radiation, little wind and a shallow mixed layer, whereas stagnation or loss was associated with strong winds and a consequent deepening of the mixed layer, resulting in an unfavourable effective light climate. The population collapse was brought about by zooplankton grazing, possibly coupled with nutrient limitation and other factors.     

Global magnetic field of the Sun and long-term variations of galactic cosmic rays

The paper deals with the relation of long-term variations of 10 GV galactic cosmic rays (GCR) to the global solar magnetic field and solar wind parameters. This study continues previous works, where the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and other solar-heliospheric parameters are successfully used to describe long-term variations of cosmic rays in the past two solar cycles. The novelty of the present work is the use of the HCS tilt and other parameters reconstructed from Hα observations of filaments for the period when direct global solar magnetic field observations were unavailable. Thus, we could extend the GCR simulation interval back to 1953. The analysis of data for 1953–1999 revealed a good correlation (the correlation coefficient >0.88) between the solar-heliospheric parameters and GCR in different cycles of solar activity. Moreover, the approach applied makes it possible to describe the behavior of cosmic rays in the epochs of solar maxima, which could not be done before. This indicates both the adequacy of the model and the reliability of the reconstructed global solar magnetic field parameters.     

Longitudinal (UT) effect in the onset of auroral disturbances over two solar cycles as deduced from the AE-index

Statistical study on the universal time variations in the mean hourly auroral electrojet index (AE-index) has been undertaken for a 21 y period over two solar cycles (1957–1968 and 1978–1986). The analysis, applied to isolated auroral substorm onsets (inferred from rapid variations in the AE-index) and to the bulk of the AE data, indicates that the maximum in auroral activity is largely confined to 09–18 UT, with a distinct minimum at 03–06 UT. The diurnal effect was clearly present throughout all seasons in the first cycle but was mainly limited to northern winter in the second cycle. Severe storms (AE > 1000 nT) tended to occur between 9–18 UT irrespective of the seasons whereas all larger magnetic disturbances (AE > 500 nT) tended to occur in this time interval mostly in winter. On the whole the diurnal trend was strong in winter, intermediate at equinox and weak in summer. The implication of this study is that Eastern Siberia, Japan and Australia are mostly at night, during the period of maximum auroral activity whereas Europe and Eastern America are then mostly at daytime. The minimum of auroral activity coincides with near-midnight conditions in Eastern America. It appears that the diurnal UT distribution in the AE-index reflects a diurnal change between interplanetary magnetic field orientation and the Earths magnetic dipole inclination.     

Signatures of solar activity variability in meteorological parameters

Solar radiation (both total and in various wavelengths) varies at different time scales—from seconds to decades or centuries—as a consequence of solar activity. The energy received from the Sun is one of the natural driving forces of the Earth's atmosphere and since this energy is not constant, it has been argued that there must be some non-zero climate response to it. This response must be fully specified in order to improve our understanding of the climate system and the impact of anthropogenic activities on it. However, despite all the efforts, if and how subtle variations of solar radiation affect climate and weather still remains an unsolved puzzle. One key element that is very often taken as evidence of a response, is the similarity of periodicities between several solar activity indices and different meteorological parameters. The literature contains a long history of positive or negative correlations between weather and climate parameters like temperature, rainfall, droughts, etc. and solar activity cycles like the 27-day cycle, the prominent 11-year sunspot cycle, the 22-year Hale cycle and the Gleissberg cycle of 80–90 years. A review of these different cycles is provided as well as some of the correlative analyses between them and several stratospheric parameters (like stratospheric geopotential heights, temperature and ozone concentration) and tropospheric parameters (like temperature, rainfall, water level in lakes and river flooding, clouds) that point to a relationship of some kind. However, the suspicion on these relationships will remain as long as an indisputable physical mechanism, which might act to produce these correlations, is not available.     

Recent Climate Warming: Surface Air Temperature Series and Geothermal Evidence

Long-term (1961 – 1996) meteorological air temperature series together with the reconstructed ground surface temperature histories, obtained by inverting borehole temperature-depth profiles, were used to project regional patterns of the recent (climate) warming rate on the territory of the Czech Republic. The characteristic magnitude of the warming rate of 0.02 –0.03 K/yr was confirmed by the results of several years of monitoring the temperature in two experimental boreholes. The monitoring of shallow temperatures at depths of about 30 –40 m, i.e. below the reach of the seasonal surface temperature variations, can serve as an alternative tool of direct quantitative assessment of the present warming rate. The data also seem to sustain a potential man-made component contributing to the more pronounced recent warming rate observed in the areas of large agglomeration.     

Do CRISTA Experiment/Campaign Data Represent a Typical Situation or Not?

Data from four A3 radio wave circuits in central Europe are used to analyse the representativeness of the ionization and gravity wave activity pattern in the lower ionosphere (85 – 100 km) in the CRISTA experiment interval (3 – 12 November 1994) for the given conditions. It has been found that the CRISTA experiment interval was run under conditions, which are highly representative both of October – November 1994 and autumn, low-moderate solar activity, the descending phase of solar cycle conditions, i.e. CRISTA measurements may be considered to provide values identical with, or close to climatological values (at least for central Europe, h = 85 – 100 km).