Short-Term Periodicities in Sunspot Activity and Flare Index Data during Solar Cycle 23

The short-term periodicities in sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, and flare index data are investigated in detail using the Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) for the full disk of the Sun separately over the rising, the maximum, and the declining portions of solar cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). While sunspot numbers and areas show several significant periodicities in a wide range between 23.1 and 36.4 days, the flare index data do not exhibit any significant periodicity. The earlier conclusion of Pap, Tobiska, and Bouwer (1990, Solar Phys. 129, 165) and Kane (2003, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 65, 1169), that the 27-day periodicity is more pronounced in the declining portion of a solar cycle than in the rising and maximum ones, seems to be true for sunspot numbers and sunspot area data analyzed here during solar cycle 23.     

Periodicities in the occurrence rate of solar proton events

Power spectral analyses of the time series of solar proton events during the past three solar cycles reveal a periodicity around 154 days. This feature is prominent in all of the cycles combined, cycles 19 and 21 individually but is only weak in cycle 20. These results are consistent with the presence of similar periodicities between 152 and 155 days in the occurrence rate of major solar flares, the sunspot blocking function (P _s ), the 10.7 cm radio flux (F _10.7) and the sunspot number (R _z ). This suggests that the circa 154-days periodicity may be a fundamental characteristic of the Sun. Periods around 50–52 days are also found in the combined data set and in the three individual cycles in general agreement with the detection of this periodicity in major flares in cycle 19 and inP _s ,F _10.7, andR _z in cycle 21. The cause of the 155 day period remains unknown. The spectra contain lines (or show power at frequencies) consistent with a model in which the periodicity is caused by differential rotation of active zones and a model in which it is related to beat frequencies between solar oscillations, as proposed by Wolff.     

On Short-Term Periodicity of the Solar Radius Measurements

The aim of the present study is to investigate the short-term periodicity in the solar radius measurements and to compare with the short periods in sunspot numbers, sunspot areas and flare index data. The spectral analysis of data sets covering a time interval from 26 February 2000 to 26 October 2007 during Solar Cycle 23 were made by using the Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT). The power spectrum of solar radius data corrected for the seeing effect gives an evident peak at 25.7 days with the amplitude of 0.034 arcsec, which is slightly different from the peaks of 26.2 and 26.7 days produced by sunspot numbers and sunspot areas data, respectively. Besides, the main peak of 25.7 days detected in the power spectrum of solar radius data is in agreement with the period of 25.5 days, suggested to be the fundamental period of the Sun by Bai and Sturrock (in Nature 350, 141, 1991).     

Periodicities in the λ10 cm solar flux

An analysis has been carried out on the 32 years of 10 cm solar flux data, published by Covington, to test for evidence of the periodicities found by others using different techniques. Two features with periods of about 25 and 31 days appear to persist throughout the data, but there is no evidence for the 12.6 days periodicity claimed by Dicke and Goldenberg from solar ellipticity measurements, nor for the 12.07 day periodicity claimed by Knight et al. from an analysis of sunspot numbers. A 750 day periodicity is evident during 1970–75; this may correspond to the feature deduced by Sakurai from the sunspot numbers (and claimed to correlate with the neutrino flux); this feature can change in amplitude at other times. The other major feature has a period of about 1100 days, but disappears completely during 1970–75. The above periods are all synodic.On leave of absence at Sterrewacht, Leiden, The Netherlands during 1979/80.     

Intermediate-term periodicities in solar activity

The presence of intermediate-term periodicities in solar activity, at approximately 323 and 540 days, has been claimed by different authors. In this paper, we have performed a search for them in the historical records of two main indices of solar activity, namely, the daily sunspot areas (cycles 12–21) and the daily Zürich sunspot number (cycles 6–21). Two different methods to compute power spectra have been used, one of them being especially appropriate to deal with gapped time series. The results obtained for the periodicity near 323 days indicate that it has only been present in cycle 21, while in previous cycles no significant evidence for it has been found. On the other hand, a significant periodicity at 350 days is found in sunspot areas and Zürich sunspot number during cycles 12–21 considered all together, also having been detected in some individual cycles. However, this last periodicity must be looked into with care due to the lack of confirmation for it coming from other features of solar activity. The periodicity around 540 days is found in cycles 12, 14, and 17 in sunspot areas, while during cycles 18 and 19 it is present, with a very high significance, in sunspot areas and Zürich sunspot number. It also appears at 528 days in sunspot areas during cycles 12–21. On the other hand, it is important to note the coincidence between the asymmetry, favouring the northern hemisphere, of sunspot areas and solar flares during cycle 19, and the fact that the periodicity at 540 days was only present, with high significance, in that hemisphere during that solar cycle.     

Solar neutrino in relation to solar activity

Here we have carried out a power-spectrum analysis of solar nuclear gamma-ray (NGR) flares observed by SMM and HINOTORI satellites. The solar NGR flares show a periodicity of 152 days, confirming the existence of a 152–158 days periodicity in the occurrence of solar activity phenomena and also indicating that the NGR flares are a separate class of solar flares. The power-spectrum analysis of the daily sunspot areas on the Sun for the period 1980–1982 shows a peak around 159 days while sunspot number data do not show any periodicity (Verma and Joshi, 1987). Therefore, only sunspot area data should be treated as an indicator of solar activity and not the daily sunspot number data.     

The Relationship between Prediction Accuracy and Correlation Coefficient

The correlation coefficient (r) between the maximum amplitude (R _m) of a sunspot cycle and the preceding minimum aa geomagnetic index (aa _min), in terms of geomagnetic cycle, can be fitted by a sinusoidal function with a four-cycle periodicity superimposed on a declining trend. The prediction index (χ) of the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty based on a geomagnetic precursor method can be fitted by a sinusoidal function with a four-and-half-cycle periodicity. A revised prediction relationship is found between the two quantities: χ<1.2 if r varies in a rising trend, and χ>1.2 if r varies in a declining trend. The prediction accuracy of R _m depends on the long-term variation in the correlation. These results indicate that the prediction for the next cycle inferred from this method, R _m(24)=87±23 regarding the 75% level of confidence (1.2-σ), is likely to fail. When using another predictor of sunspot area instead of the geomagnetic index, similar results can be also obtained. Dynamo models will have better predictive powers when having considered the long-term periodicities.     

On the periodicities of sunspots and solar strong hard X-ray bursts

In the present investigation, we have carried out power spectrum analysis of sunspot number and great hard x-ray (GHXR) burst (equal to or greater than 10,000 counts per second) for a period of about 6 years. The GHXR bursts show a periodicity of about 155 days. On the other hand, sunspot numbers do not show any periodicity. The GHXR burst periodicity confirms the existence of a 152–158 days periodicity in the occurrence of solar energetic events. Further, the GHXR bursts are showing periodicity independently indicating that the GHXR bursts are a separate class of X-ray flares.     

On the R z -sunspot relative number variations

The Zürich sunspot relative number R _z series has been analysed by the cyclogram method. The amplitude and the frequency variations of the Fourier 11 yr component between 1700–1983 A.D., were determined in a continuous way.Four distinct time intervals with significantly different characteristics of the periodicities are observed and discussed.Their second harmonics are also considered. The periodicity changes are contemporary to those of the 11 yr cycles.Around the year 1903 it seems that an important event has happened in the Sun. In fact the 11.4 yr cycle periodicity, that was very stable since at least 1825 started to change gradually to smaller values and similarly it happened to the second harmonic which also stopped and abruptly changed of phase of 90°.     

The 27-Day and 22-Year Cycles in Solar and Geomagnetic Activity

We study the evolution of the longitudinal asymmetry in solar activity through the wave packet technique applied to the period domain of 25 – 31 days (centered at the 27-day solar rotation period) for the sunspot number and geomagnetic aa index. We observe the occurrence of alternating smaller and larger amplitudes of the 11-year cycle, resulting in a 22-year periodicity in the 27-day signal. The evolution of the 22-year cycle shows a change of regime around the year 1912 when the 22-year period disappears from the sunspot number series and appears in the aa index. Other changes, such as a change in the correlation between solar and geomagnetic activity, took place at the same time. Splitting the 27-day frequency domain of aa index shows an 11-year cycle for higher frequencies and a pure22-year cycle for lower frequencies, which we attribute to higher latitude coronal holes. This evidence is particularly clear after 1940, which is another benchmark in the evolution of the aa index. We discuss briefly the mechanisms that could account for the observed features of the 22-year cycle evolution.     

On the solar origin of the thermoluminescence profile of the GT14 core

The thermoluminescence (TL) profile of the GT14 Ionian Sea core has been recently analyzed in connection with other records of solar activity. Phenomenological similarities among the TL profile, the radiocarbon record in tree-rings and the variations of the mean anuual sunspot number R _z suggest a solar control of the TL signal. In this paper we consider new readings of the TL profile of the GT14 core which were obtained at different glow temperatures. While the main spectral peaks discussed in previous papers are observed in all readings, a few new significant periodic components may now be separated from the noise background. Among these, a strong 22 yr (Hale) cycle is evident, together with a periodicity of 28.5 yr which has already been detected in the spectrum of the sunspot number series. We finally test the temporal persistency of the main TL periodic components by using a cyclogram method and we explore the effects of background noise by considering the TL profile of bleached samples.     

On the long-term secular increase in sunspot number

Correlated with the maximum amplitude (R _max) of the sunspot cycle are the sum (R _sum) and the mean (R _mean) of sunspot number over the duration of the cycle, having a correlation coefficient r equal to 0.925 and 0.960, respectively. Runs tests of R _max, R _sum, and R _mean for cycles 0–21 have probabilities of randomness P equal to 6.3, 1.2, and 9.2%, respectively, indicating a tendency for these solar-cycle related parameters to be nonrandomly distributed. The past record of these parameters can be described using a simple two-parameter secular fit, one parameter being an 8-cycle modulation (the so-called Gleissberg cycle or long period) and the other being a long-term general (linear) increase lasting tens of cycles. For each of the solar-cycle related parameters, the secular fit has an r equal to about 0.7–0.8, implying that about 50–60% of the variation in R _max, R _sum, and R _mean can be accounted for by the variation in the secular fit.Extrapolation of the two-parameter secular fit of R _max to cycle 22 suggests that the present cycle will have an R _max = 74.5 ± 49.0, where the error bar equals ± 2 standard errors; hence, the maximum amplitude for cycle 22 should be lower than about 125 when sunspot number is expressed as an annual average or it should be lower than about 130 when sunspot number is expressed as a smoothed (13-month running mean) average. The long-term general increase in sunspot number appears to have begun about the time of the Maunder minimum, implying that the 314-yr periodicity found in ancient varve data may not be a dominant feature of present sunspot cycles.     

Toward Waveform Heliotomography: Observing Interactions of Helioseismic Waves with a Sunspot

We investigate how helioseismic waves that originate from effective point sources interact with a sunspot. These waves are reconstructed from observed stochastic wavefields on the Sun by cross-correlating photospheric Doppler-velocity signals. We select the wave sources at different locations relative to the sunspot, and investigate the p- and f-mode waves separately. The results reveal a complicated picture of waveform perturbations caused by the wave interaction with the sunspot. In particular, it is found that for waves originating from outside of the sunspot, p-mode waves travel across the sunspot with a small amplitude reduction and slightly higher speed, and wave amplitude and phase get mostly restored to the quiet-Sun values after passing the sunspot. The f-mode wave experiences some amplitude reduction passing through the sunspot, and the reduced amplitude is not recovered after that. The wave-propagation speed does not change before encountering the sunspot and inside the sunspot, but the wavefront becomes faster than the reference wave after passing through the sunspot. For waves originating from inside the sunspot umbra, both f- and p-mode waves show significant amplitude reductions and faster speed for all propagation paths. A comparison of positive and negative time lags of cross-correlation functions shows an apparent asymmetry in the waveform changes for both the f- and p-mode waves. We suggest that the waveform variations of the helioseismic waves interacting with a sunspot found in this article can be used for developing a method of waveform heliotomography, similar to the waveform tomography of the Earth.     

Activity cycle of solar filaments

Long-term variation in the distribution of the solar filaments observed at the Observatorie de Paris, Section de Meudon from March 1919 to December 1989 is presented to compare with sunspot cycle and to study the periodicity in the filament activity, namely the periods of the coronal activity with the Morlet wavelet used. It is inferred that the activity cycle of solar filaments should have the same cycle length as sunspot cycle, but the cycle behavior of solar filaments is globally similar in profile with, but different in detail from, that of sunspot cycles. The amplitude of solar magnetic activity should not keep in phase with the complexity of solar magnetic activity. The possible periods in the filament activity are about 10.44 and 19.20 years. The wavelet local power spectrum of the period 10.44 years is statistically significant during the whole consideration time. The wavelet local power spectrum of the period 19.20 years is under the 95% confidence spectrum during the whole consideration time, but over the mean red-noise spectrum of α = 0.72 before approximate Carrington rotation number 1500, and after that the filament activity does not statistically show the period. Wavelet reconstruction indicates that the early data of the filament archive (in and before cycle 16) are more noiseful than the later (in and after cycle 17).     

The 73-day periodicity of the flare index during the current solar cycle 22

The flare index of the current solar cycle 22 is analysed to detect intermediate-term periodicities from Sep. 1, 1986 to Dec. 31, 1991. Power spectral analysis of the time series of solar flare index data reveals a periodicity around 73 and 53 days. We find that a periodicity of 73 days was in operation from 1988 November to the end of 1991 December. We also find that when the 73-day periodicity or the 154-day periodicity is in operation, the flare index is well correlated with the relative sunspot numbers. As a conclusion, we do not expect to see a resumption of the 154-day or 73-day periodicity, but we do expect only one of the periodicity near the integral multiples of 25^d.8 in the next solar cycles.     

A new solar activity parameter and the strength of 5-cycle periodicity

A weak 5-cycle periodicity (r = −0.64) is found in the maximum amplitudes of the modern era sunspot cycles (11–23), slightly stronger than the 8-cycle (Gleissberg) periodicity (r = 0.60).We propose a new parameter called ‘effective duration’, defined as the total sunspot numbers in a cycle divided by the maximum amplitude. This parameter has two advantages: one is that it is almost independent of the exact definition of minimum timing; another is that the maximum amplitude is found to be highly correlated (r = 0.86) with this parameter five cycles before, when applied to the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers in modern era.Implied is that this parameter carries some information of the amplitude five cycles later, and may become one of the parameters to study solar activity and the theory of solar dynamo. With the relationship above, the amplitude of cycle 24 is estimated to be 115.7 ± 19.7, where the error is the standard error.     

Nonlinear Evolution of Axisymmetric Twisted Flux Tubes in the Solar Tachocline

We study the periodicity of twisting motions in sunspot penumbral filaments, which were recently discovered from space (Hinode) and ground-based (SST) observations. A sunspot was well observed for 97 minutes by Hinode/SOT in the G-band (4305 Å) on 12 November 2006. By the use of the time?–?space gradient applied to intensity space?–?time plots, twisting structures can be identified in the penumbral filaments. Consistent with previous findings, we find that the twisting is oriented from the solar limb to disk center. Some of them show a periodicity. The typical period is about ≈?four minutes, and the twisting velocity is roughly 6 km s^?1. However, the penumbral filaments do not always show periodic twisting motions during the time interval of the observations. Such behavior seems to start and stop randomly with various penumbral filaments displaying periodic twisting during different intervals. The maximum number of periodic twists is 20 in our observations. Studying this periodicity can help us to understand the physical nature of the twisting motions. The present results enable us to determine observational constraints on the twisting mechanism.     

Solar Cycle Predictions based on Solar Activity at Different Solar Latitudes

Many methods of predictions of sunspot maximum number use data before or at the preceding sunspot minimum to correlate with the following sunspot maximum of the same cycle, which occurs a few years later. Kane and Trivedi (Solar Phys. 68, 135, 1980) found that correlations of R _z(max) (the maximum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R _z) with R _z(min) (the minimum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R _z) in the solar latitude belt 20° – 40°, particularly in the southern hemisphere, exceeded 0.6 and was still higher (0.86) for the narrower belt > 30° S. Recently, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 377, L34, 2007) studied the relationship of sunspot areas at different solar latitudes and reported correlations 0.95 – 0.97 between minima and maxima of sunspot areas at low latitudes and sunspot maxima of the next cycle, and predictions could be made with an antecedence of more than 11 years. For the present study, we selected another parameter, namely, SGN, the sunspot group number (irrespective of their areas) and found that SGN(min) during a sunspot minimum year at latitudes > 30° S had a correlation +0.78±0.11 with the sunspot number R _z(max) of the same cycle. Also, the SGN during a sunspot minimum year in the latitude belt (10° – 30° N) had a correlation +0.87±0.07 with the sunspot number R _z(max) of the next cycle. We obtain an appropriate regression equation, from which our prediction for the coming cycle 24 is R _z(max )=129.7±16.3.     

太阳活动周期的小波分析

运用小波技术对太阳射电流量2800 MHz,太阳黑子数和太阳黑子面积数周期进行分析．其结果表明: (1)这3个系列的数据显示最显著的周期是10．69年,其他周期并不明显．(2)小波功率谱给出了全部时间-周期范围的功率谱变化,它显示了在某个周期处于某个时段的局部功率的变化,小波功率谱分析表明,小于1年的周期仅仅在太阳活动最大期附近比较明显．(3)太阳射电2800 MHz,太阳黑子数和太阳黑子面积数的几个周期(10．69年,5．11年, 155．5天)的小波功率谱比较相似,出现峰值的时间相同;曲线的起伏相似,周期越小,曲线起伏的频率越大．     

Quasi-biennial periodicity in the solar neutrino flux and its relation to the solar structure

By analysing the observed results on the neutrino flux from the Sun for the years 1970–1978, it is shown that the production rate of the neutrinos at the central core of the Sun had been varying with a period almost equal to 26 months for these years. This so-called quasi-biennial periodicity in this rate suggests that the physical state of the central core of the Sun must have been modulated with this period through the variation of physical parameters as temperature and the chemical composition at the central core of the Sun. An idea to interpret this observed periodicity is thus proposed by taking the variations of these parameters into consideration. Some supporting evidence on this periodicity can be found on the variations of the solar activity as the relative sunspot numbers and the equatorial rotation speed of the Sun.Proceedings of the 14th ESLAB Symposium on Physics of Solar Variations, 16–19 September 1980, Scheveningen, The Netherlands.