气象参证站的选取对AERMOD模型结果的影响分析

选取南昌经济技术开发区规划大气环境影响预测工作为案例,分析了当选取不同气象参证站,输入同期两套不同的气象数据参数对AERMOD模型计算结果的影响,探究气象条件的差异对大气扩散的影响程度。分析结果表明,气象参证站的选取对大气环境影响预测的结果有较大的影响,使用两个距离相近的地面气象站进行预测,污染物浓度计算结果相差可达数倍以上。对比风速、风向、气温、湿度、压力、云量这些单个的气象因子,稳定边界层(SBL)湍流高度和莫宁-奥布霍夫长度这些边界层参数更能综合地反映当时的气象扩散条件,对污染扩散模型的响应更为直接。翔实的有代表性的气象数据是环境影响评价至关重要的基础。在日常的大气环境影响评价中,应全面调查了解项目周边的地面气象站的数量、类型、距离、地形特征,经过专业的气象分析,选取最能代表评价项目所在地气象条件的气象站作为气象参证站,用于该项目的环评和浓度预测。各地气象部门还应加强城市与郊区大气边界层垂直结构变化规律的观测与研究,从而为提高各地空气质量预报的精度,改善大气污染治理措施和优化城市布局提供更为科学的依据。     

呼伦贝尔市大气能见度影响因子及一次低能见度个例分析

为探寻呼伦贝尔市大气能见度、低能见度特征及其影响因子,揭示"冰晶雾"天气成因,利用呼伦贝尔市大气能见度资料及地面气象要素资料对4个代表站的能见度进行统计分析,并对一次典型低能见度事件进行分析,结果表明:(1)整个地区大气能见度的气候特征在空间分布及时间演变上均存在较大的不一致性,牧区能见度优于农区;(2)大气能见度与相对湿度和气压呈负相关,与气温和风速以正相关为主;(3)大气低能见度出现的集中时段是冬季,伴随最多的天气现象为结冰、积雪和霜;(4)2 m温度低于零下36℃,对于浓雾的产生具有指示意义。     

Diurnal Variations of the Temperature and Their Influenceon Wind Regime in a Confluence Zone of Antarctica

Summary The behaviour of the wind field at the confluence zone of Terra Nova Bay during a transition period from winter to summer is considered. To explain some observed features the influence of diurnal variations are considered to integrate and complete the analysis based on annual and seasonal variations. Diurnal variations in the buoyancy difference between two main air masses coming from the Revees and Priestley glaciers are assumed to contribute to diurnal alteration of the wind direction at the Nansen ice sheet. The data recorded at three automatic weather stations (AWS) available that period are analysed. Using the wavelet analysis procedure, it is shown that the contribution of one-day variations of some basic meteorological parameters and their gradients (in particular of temperature and pressure) is important and comparable with synoptic ones. On the base of the diurnal variations some aspects of the local circulation have been explained. The basis for the further studies related to the evolution of katabatic winds in this area are also presented. Received August 3, 1998 Revised March 12, 1999     

厦门空气污染指数与地面气象要素的关系分析

利用相关统计法分析2006—2008年厦门市地面气象要素对空气污染指数变化的影响规律。结果表明：风速、气温、降水、相对湿度和水汽压对空气污染指数有显著负效应作用,气压起显著正效应作用;风向影响较为复杂, NNW-N-E-ESE风起正效应作用, SE-S-W风起负效应作用,厦门风向总体不利于空气质量提高,全年仅夏季盛行SE-S-W风。API指数与风向、气温、降水、气压、相对湿度和水汽压的季节变化规律有高相关性。API指数与气象要素中的水汽压关系最相关,其次是气压。     

Observations of atmospheric boundary layer evolution above the Gulf Stream frontal zone

Ship borne measurements of atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) parameters, sea-surface temperature and radar signals are analyzed to reveal the effects of the ABL transformation above the Gulf Stream temperature frontal zone. It was found that local changes in vertical gradients of wind speed and air temperature are well correlated with sub-mesoscale (~ 10 km) sea surface temperature variations. These effects are accompanied by appropriate variations in surface wind stresses that were identified from microwave backscatter.For steady atmospheric conditions the same effects were observed on spatial scales of 100 km, demonstrating positive radar signal contrast of the Gulf Stream warm waters with respect to surrounding Sargasso sea and shelf water areas. A simplified model of the ABL, accounting for an effect of spatial inhomogeneity by introducing an internal boundary layer, is used to analyze field observations. The model is able to reproduce both sub-mesoscale and mesoscale ABL evolution.     

Investigating the relationship of meteorological/climatological conditions and wildfires in Greece

During the last decades, wildfires have received growing attention because of their major impact on the natural and anthropogenic infrastructures worldwide. The present paper focuses on investigating the relationship between the meteorological/climatological conditions and wildfires in Greece on a variety of temporal and spatial scales. This is performed through the identification of the mean surface temperature, the sea-level pressure, and the absolute humidity anomalies during wildfires at 26 meteorological stations covering both maritime and land environments in the Greek domain and the subsequent construction of the derived GIS surface contour maps. A case study analysis through composite anomaly maps of temperature, pressure, precipitable water, 500-hPa geopotential height, specific humidity, and vector wind is also performed. It is concluded that positive surface temperature, absolute/specific humidity, 500-hPa geopotential height, and vector wind anomalies are observed during wildfires while sea-level pressures are anomalously negative. Furthermore, western regions display lower magnitude anomalies compared to the more central and central-eastern regions during wildfires. The above meteorological/climatological findings in conjunction with medium range to seasonal climate forecasts could be used by wildfire risk managers to provide increased wildfire prediction accuracy and thus benefit many aspects of the natural and built environment.     

黄石市大气PM10和PM2.5质量浓度特征研究

利用2015年黄石市5个监测站点可吸入颗粒物(PM10)和细颗粒物(PM2.5)的在线监测数据和风向、风速、气温、气压等常规地面气象要素观测资料,分析了黄石市大气PM10和PM2.5的质量浓度水平分布特征及其与气象参数的关系。结果表明:2015年黄石市5个监测站点大气PM10和PM2.5年均浓度范围分别为95.8—108.6μg·m^-3和64.3—68.9μg·m^-3,均超过国家二级标准;季均质量浓度呈现显著的冬季高夏季低的变化规律,冬季PM10和PM2.5的质量浓度分别为(143.9±62.2)μg·m^-3和(95.5±44.5)μg·m^-3,夏季PM10和PM2.5的质量浓度分别为(75.2±24.0)μg·m^-3和(50.7±17.3)μg·m^-3。5个监测站中,下陆区、西塞山区和铁山区的PM10和PM2.5颗粒物污染较为严重;各站点大气PM10和PM2.5质量浓度显著相关。大气颗粒物浓度与气象因素的分析显示,黄石市大气颗粒物浓度与气温呈显著的负相关关系,与气压呈正相关关系,与风速和相对湿度的相关性不显著,受风向影响变化较大。     

Differences in Meteorological Conditions between Days with Persistent and Non-Persistent Pollution in Beijing,China

We compared the regional synoptic patterns and local meteorological conditions during persistent and non-persistent pollution events in Beijing using US NCEP–Department of Energy reanalysis outputs and observations from meteorological stations. The analysis focused on the impacts of high-frequency (period < 90 days) variations in meteorological conditions on persistent pollution events (those lasting for at least 3 days). Persistent pollution events tended to occur in association with slow-moving weather systems producing stagnant weather conditions, whereas rapidly moving weather systems caused a dramatic change in the local weather conditions so that the pollution event was short-lived. Although Beijing was under the influence of anomalous southerly winds in all four seasons during pollution events, notable differences were identified in the regional patterns of sea-level pressure and local anomalies in relative humidity among persistent pollution events in different seasons. A region of lower pressure was present to the north of Beijing in spring, fall, and winter, whereas regions of lower and higher pressures were observed northwest and southeast of Beijing, respectively, in summer. The relative humidity near Beijing was higher in fall and winter, but lower in spring and summer. These differences may explain the seasonal dependence of the relationship between air pollution and the local meteorological variables. Our analysis showed that the temperature inversion in the lower troposphere played an important part in the occurrence of air pollution under stagnant weather conditions. Some results from this study are based on a limited number of events and thus require validation using more data.     

探测环境对北京气象站气温观测值的影响分析

为深入了解气象探测环境对气温观测数据的影响,利用2017年北京市观象台（54511）与南海子站（A1274）逐小时地面气象要素数据,分析两站气温差异以及因站点探测环境导致的日照、风速和降水对两站气温差异的影响。结果表明：2017年两站气温差异较明显,年平均气温54511站比A1274站高0.75℃;两站逐月平均气温54511站全年高于A1274站,两站差值7月最低为0.60℃,9月最高为1.09℃;两站平均日最高气温较接近,平均日最低气温差异较大,54511站较A1274站高1.24℃;两站气温的日变化特征相似,呈单峰分布,54511站气温日较差低于A1274站。两站小时气温差值随着日照时长和强度的增加而增加,短波辐射效应最强的10-14时和长波辐射效应最强的19-23时两站气温差值与当日白天直接辐射曝辐量的相关系数分别为0.459和0.601;水平风速对两站气温差值的影响较大。水平风速超过5 m·s^-1时,两站气温差小于0.1℃;当水平风速不超过1 m·s^-1时,两站观测气温差值达到1.28℃;降水天气下两站的气温差值小于非降水天气,出现降水时次54511站平均气温仅比A1274站高0.2℃。两站相距4.3 km,气候均一,测站周边2 km范围内建设用地占比54511站比A1274站高约30%,植被占比低28%,水体占比相差不大。另外,54511站附近的五环路具有低反射率和高热容的特征,白天能够吸收太阳辐射储存较多的热量,这些热量在夜间释放,可能是两站探测环境对太阳辐射吸收的差异决定了两站温差受太阳辐射和风速的影响较大,而受降水影响较小。     

珠江三角洲平原地区气候、雨量站网最佳密度的探讨

本文用珠江三角洲平原地区36个气象台站的气温、气压、相对湿度、风速和降水等五个要素的资料计算表明,珠江三角洲平原地区气候站的站间距离50公里;雨量站的站间距离25公里为最佳间距。同时得出该方法用于平原地区的台站设置是可行的。      

电厂空冷系统环境气象场要素分析中的几个关键技术

以山西省左权、王曲电厂等为期一年的铁塔气象观测资料和各邻近地面气象站同期观测资料为例,说明如何选取典型年以及相关性较好的对比气象站,通过对电厂空冷梯度的主要气象要素分析,结合选取的对比气象站长时间序列的逐时气象资料,采用相关统计分析并进行回归检验,重建厂址区域风、温场资料,并针对风资料转换中存在的问题进行了探讨.结果表明:在两地风资料相关较差时.利用条件概率结合线性回归以及风矢量相关等方法补充订正厂址区域风资料效果较好.其结果对风、温场历史资料的重建有一定的指导意义.     

桂林城区大气能见度与颗粒物浓度和气象因子关系研究

利用2015年1月至2017年6月桂林国家基本气象站能见度、相对湿度、气温、气压、降水等气象要素和PM₁₀、PM_2.5、PM_1.0颗粒物质量浓度资料,分析桂林城区大气能见度与颗粒物浓度和气象因子之间关系。结果表明：桂林城区大气能见度和PM₁₀、PM_2.5、PM_1.0呈对数关系,相关系数分别为-0.341、-0.461、-0.509,颗粒物对大气能见度影响在相对湿度为60%—70%时最为显著。在各气象因子中,大气能见度与风速的相关性最好,其次为相对湿度,与风速呈二次函数关系,与相对湿度呈幂指数关系,与温度相关性较小,与气压在秋冬季节呈正相关,相关系数冬季可达0.301,但在春、夏季节相关性不显著;利用颗粒物浓度和气象要素建立8种大气能见度非线性统计回归模型,比较后发现利用PM_1.0、风速、相对湿度、气温等因子建立的不同季节大气能见度拟合公式在实际检验中效果最优,能较好地模拟桂林地区大气能见度的变化。     

用5L混合云室观测抚顺市大气冰核浓度

利用改进的Bigg型混合云室于2011年5-11月在辽宁省气象局抚顺大气成分站对近地层大气冰核浓度进行了测量。根据测量结果,分析冰核浓度日际变化和季节变化特征,讨论了风、气压、气温和湿度以及天气状况等气象要素对大气冰核浓度的影响。结果表明：观测期间,抚顺市大气冰核浓度平均为30个·L_-1（-20 ℃时）;冰核浓度随活化温度的降低呈指数式增加;气象因子对冰核浓度有一定的影响,不同季节影响的程度不同。     

城市化进程对北京区域气象场的影响模拟

城市化所导致的下垫面的改变会直接影响局地气象。根据北京城市测绘院提供的北京市楼房建筑平均高度资料,利用中尺度数值模式(MM5V3)模拟了城市化进程引起的气象效应,并与奥林匹克公园站等6个地面观测资料进行了比较。结果表明:MM5V3可以很好地模拟下垫面类型改变导致的气象效应,城市升温效果获得了较好的体现,风速模拟值减小,风向的模拟得到较明显的改善,气压和风速的统计偏差也明显减小。分析结果还揭示了稳定天气条件下北京地区气象场的模拟及实时预报必须考虑精细化的地形及下垫面状况。     

大气污染对太行山中部地区地表风的影响

为了研究大气污染对太行山中部地区地表风的影响,我们对阳泉、榆社(高山站),石家庄、邢台(平原站)4个站点1966~2005年间的能见度、近地面温度、近地面风速数据进行了统计计算与趋势分析。结果显示:在平原站能见度相对山坡站下降更加明显的背景下,平原站的近地面温度、近地面风速、850hPa风速都呈下降趋势;而山坡站的近地面温度、近地面风速呈上升趋势。分析表明:(1)由于气溶胶的辐射效应与冷却效应,抑制了垂直通量的上下传输,致使平原站下午的近地面气温呈下降趋势,平原站和高山站的地表风速呈相反的变化趋势。(2)平原站850hPa (与高山站高度相近)风速呈现下降趋势,印证了高山站的近地面风速增加是气溶胶的辐射效应减弱了垂直能量交换造成的。      

Evaluation of support vector machine for estimation of solar radiation from measured meteorological variables

Solar radiation is an essential and important variable to many models. However, it is measured at a very limited number of meteorological stations in the world. Developing method for accurate estimation of solar radiation from measured meteorological variables has been a focus and challenging task. This paper presents the method of solar radiation estimation using support vector machine (SVM). The main objective of this work is to examine the feasibility of SVM and explore its potential in solar radiation estimation. A total of 20 SVM models using different combinations of sunshine ratio, maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity, and atmospheric water vapor pressure as input attributes are explored using meteorological data at 15 stations in China. These models significantly outperform the empirical models with an average 14 % higher accuracy. When sunshine duration data are available, model SVM2 using sunshine ratio and air temperature range is proposed. It significantly outperforms the empirical models with an average 26 % higher accuracy. When sunshine duration data are not available, model SVM19 using maximum temperature, minimum temperature and atmospheric water vapor pressure is proposed. It significantly outperforms the temperature-based empirical models with an average of 18 % higher accuracy. The remarkable improvement indicates that the SVM method would be a promising alternative over traditional approaches for estimation of solar radiation at any locations.     

山东夏季降水异常的环流特征及降尺度解释应用预测方法研究

基于山东省123个国家级气象观测站1961—2015年夏季降水资料、1991—2015年NCEP再分析资料,分析了山东夏季降水变化特征及其与大气环流的关系。结果表明,在山东夏季降水偏多（少）时,乌拉尔山阻塞高压偏弱（强）,副热带高压偏强（弱）,南亚高压偏强（弱）,并且200 hPa经向风场有明显的类似丝绸之路遥相关型的波列结构。利用国家气候中心第二代海气耦合模式3月起报的未来夏季海平面气压场建立降尺度预测模型,该模型对山东夏季降水的预测符号一致率达到64%,有一定的预测能力,进一步分析发现,模式对关键区环流因子的模拟预测能力显著影响降尺度预测方法的准确率。     

The interannual precipitation variability in the southern part of Iran as linked to large-scale climate modes

The interannual variation of precipitation in the southern part of Iran and its link with the large-scale climate modes are examined using monthly data from 183 meteorological stations during 1974–2005. The majority of precipitation occurs during the rainy season from October to May. The interannual variation in fall and early winter during the first part of the rainy season shows apparently a significant positive correlation with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, a partial correlation analysis used to extract the respective influence of IOD and ENSO shows a significant positive correlation only with the IOD and not with ENSO. The southeasterly moisture flux anomaly over the Arabian Sea turns anti-cyclonically and transport more moisture to the southern part of Iran from the Arabian Sea, the Red Sea, and the Persian Gulf during the positive IOD. On the other hand, the moisture flux has northerly anomaly over Iran during the negative IOD, which results in reduced moisture supply from the south. During the latter part of the rainy season in late winter and spring, the interannual variation of precipitation is more strongly influenced by modes of variability over the Mediterranean Sea. The induced large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly controls moisture supply from the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.     

Spatial variability of chilling temperature in Turkey and its effect on human comfort

Summary Air temperature, absolute humidity and wind speed are the most important meteorological parameters that affect human thermal comfort. Because of heat loss, the human body feels air temperatures different to actual temperatures. Wind speed is the most practical element for consideration in terms of human comfort. In winter, due to the strong wind speeds, the sensible temperature is generally colder than the air temperature. This uncomfortable condition can cause problems related to tourism, heating and cooling. In this study, the spatial and temporal distributions of cooling temperatures and Wind Chill Index (WCI) are analyzed for Turkey, and their effect on the human body is considered. In this paper, monthly cooling temperatures between October and March in the years 1929 to 1990 are calculated by using measured temperature and wind speed at 79 stations in Turkey. The influence of wind chill is especially observed in the regions of the Aegean, west and middle Black Sea and east and central Anatolia. The wind chill in these regions has an uncomfortable effect on the human body. Usually, the WCI value is higher in western, northern and central Anatolia than in other regions.     

A new atmospheric proxy for sea level variability in the southeastern North Sea: observations and future ensemble projections

Atmosphere–ocean interactions are known to dominate seasonal to decadal sea level variability in the southeastern North Sea. In this study an atmospheric proxy for the observed sea level variability in the German Bight is introduced. Monthly mean sea level (MSL) time series from 13 tide gauges located in the German Bight and one virtual station record are evaluated in comparison to sea level pressure fields over the North Atlantic and Europe. A quasi-linear relationship between MSL in the German Bight and sea level pressure over Scandinavia and the Iberian Peninsula is found. This relationship is used (1) to evaluate the atmospheric contribution to MSL variability in hindcast experiments over the period from 1871–2008 with data from the twentieth century reanalysis v2 (20CRv2), (2) to isolate the high frequency meteorological variability of MSL from longer-term changes, (3) to derive ensemble projections of the atmospheric contribution to MSL until 2100 with eight different coupled global atmosphere–ocean models (AOGCM’s) under the A1B emission scenario and (4) two additional projections for one AOGCM (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) under the B1 and A2 emission scenarios. The hindcast produces a reasonable good reconstruction explaining approximately 80 % of the observed MSL variability over the period from 1871 to 2008. Observational features such as the divergent seasonal trend development in the second half of the twentieth century, i.e. larger trends from January to March compared to the rest of the year, and regional variations along the German North Sea coastline in trends and variability are well described. For the period from 1961 to 1990 the Kolmogorov-Smirnow test is used to evaluate the ability of the eight AOGCMs to reproduce the observed statistical properties of MSL variations. All models are able to reproduce the statistical distribution of atmospheric MSL. For the target year 2100 the models point to a slight increase in the atmospheric component of MSL with generally larger changes during winter months (October–March). Largest MSL changes in the order of ~5–6 cm are found for the high emission scenario A2, whereas the moderate B1 and intermediate A1B scenarios lead to moderate changes in the order of ~3 cm. All models point to an increasing atmospheric contribution to MSL in the German Bight, but the uncertainties are considerable, i.e. model and scenario uncertainties are in the same order of magnitude.