磁暴二倍法预报唐山7.8级地震

磁暴二倍法预报地震的依据是,应变能在运移过程中导致地壳膨胀和压缩形成一个周期,在时间上呈有二倍关系．唐山７．８级地震是我国７０年代最大地震,用磁暴二倍法推出有４组磁暴能对应这次地震．每组磁暴前后都发生了地震,由于这些地震释放的剩余能量在聚积过程中,地壳发生膨胀和压缩,地磁场就受到影响形成了磁暴．因此磁暴与地震能量变化有相关性．可见,磁暴二倍法可以预报地震．     

地震与磁暴主相最低点时刻的相关性

利用磁暴研究地震,特别是预测大地震的报道经常见诸公共媒体,引发诸多质疑.本研究以地震和磁暴(主相最低点)时刻的先后关系为研究对象,在不同时间窗、不同磁暴大小条件下,统计不同震级的地震与磁暴发生之间的时差及对应的地震比例,发现该比例随震前时间窗的增加或磁暴强度的减弱而不断增大,与起始震级基本无关.讨论磁暴对后续地震的"预...     

磁暴K指数与云南地区中强震相关性统计分析

应用云南通海地磁台K≥6的磁暴数据,对云南省内M≥5．0地震发震时间关系进行统计分析发现：K≥7的大磁暴对云南省M≥5．0地震触发作用显著,且不同强度的磁暴对地震的触发作用有差异,磁暴强度增加,触发作用也增大。这一分析结果对云南地区5级以上地震发生时间的预测有一定的意义、     

太阳黑子、磁暴与地震活动的关系

本文用格林威治台1904——1953年的太阳黑子与磁暴资料及国家地震局编的全球7级以上地震的同期资料,对太阳黑子、磁暴与地震的关系作了统计分析。主要有以下几点结果: 1.太阳黑子、磁暴与地震数的逐年变化之间经11年流动平均后具有相当高的相关性,而后者与地震的相关性更显著; 2.地震频率的季节分布在统计上有类似磁暴的季节分布的倾向; 3.太阳黑子、磁暴对地震的触发作用有一个滞后效应,前者为3——4个月,后者为1——3个月;也还出现有同时性效应; 4.太阳黑子周期内地震最多的年份常发生在太阳黑子下降相位期间。      

磁暴活动与云南新一轮地震活跃期分析

对通海地磁台记录的磁暴(K指数≥5)年频次分析发现,磁暴活动的周期有强弱之分,与云南省地震活跃期和平静期对比分析看到,磁暴活动较强的周期时段与云南地震的活跃期相对应,磁暴活动较弱的周期时段与云南地震活动平静期相对应.目前,云南地震平静期已持续15年,即将进入第Ⅴ活跃期,大震发生的危险逐日增强.磁暴发生的数目和太阳活动有...     

不同量级磁暴对新沂地震台地电阻率的影响

探讨强烈磁暴对新沂地震台地电阻率测最的影响.根据磁暴效应,得出对地电阻率的影响,从而进行不同量级磁暴对江苏省新沂地震台地电阻率的影响分析.同时分析各测向产生的差异性及原因.由于新沂地震台地电阻率测量采用正反向双向供电,磁暴对地电阻率的影响量很小,其形态仍存在同步变化.如果采取减少每次测量的供电时间、供电次数,加大供电电...     

磁情指数K、磁暴与地震相关性统计分析

在收集整理全球大震数据目录资料的基础上,利用贵阳地磁台地磁报告分析资料和FHD数字化磁力仪记录资料绘制图,统计分析了磁情指数K、磁暴与地震的关系,认为K指数〈5时,磁暴次数少,地震多;反之,K指数≥5时,磁暴次数多,地震发生的次数少。根据有关专家研究统计对比模拟记录与数字化记录,两种仪器的观测记录资料基本一致。     

磁暴与大地震的跨越式关系探讨

研究磁暴与磁暴、磁暴与月相、磁暴与大地震、大地震与大地震之间的跨越式关系，它们与日、月、地三体相对位置变化有关。论证１９８８年１１月３０日磁暴与其后发生的磁暴和大地震的跨越式关系具明显的有序性，其中多数为月球的朔望月、交点月的公倍数，后者还表现为相邻的素数数列。看来，一些磁暴与地震在成因上有密切联系     

太阳活动周磁暴与亚洲M_S 7.0以上地震活动关系

将1996—2015年太阳黑子数、强磁暴和M_S≥7.0亚洲浅源地震,按Dst指数大小对磁暴进行分类和统计,按震级大小对地震进行分类统计,结果发现,在1996—2015年太阳活动周下降年易发生大磁暴,且M_S≥7.0地震年发生率明显高于太阳活动周上升年、极大年和极小年。     

陕甘宁青中强地震与太阳及磁暴活动的关系的统计分析

本文对陕、甘、宁、青四省(区)地震活动性指数A_(N-W)(b)、兰州地磁台记录的磁暴活动性指数K(b)和太阳黑子相对数年均值R(N)进行统计分析,得出了太阳活动和地震以及磁暴活动均存在约21年、11年、5年、3年和2年左右的显著周期。它们的互相关幅度和交互谐幅度也表明,在上述显著周期内三者存在明显的相关性。理想低通滤波后的SC型磁暴K(b)和A_(N-W)(b)间的相关系数高达0.886。根据分析本文指出,陕、甘、宁、青四省(区)地震活动在以后五年内还会继续增强。最后就太阳活动和磁暴与地震的发生的关系作了讨论。     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Foreword

Destructive earthquakes have caused great damage in China and the United States and collapsing buildings havecaused many deaths and injuries. The field of earthquake engineering studies earthquake hazards, the occurrence ofearthquakes of various magnitudes, the nature of the ground shaking during an earthquake, the vibration of structuresduring earthquakes, the strengthening of existing structures and the design of new structures to be earthquake resistant,and finally, how to cope with earthquake damage and restore a city to normal functioning. Such efforts are in progressin both countries, but unfortunately, the language barrier interferes with the free flow of information between China andthe Untied States. It would be mutually beneficial if some means could be developed to promote the exchangeof information across the Pacific Ocean. This new journal has been established for this purpose and its success willbe an important step in promoting earthquake engineering in China and the United States.     

WORLD ASSOCIATION FOR SEDIMENTATION AND EROSION RESEARCH(WASER)

正President:Giampaolo Di Silvio,Italy Vice Presidents:Ulrich C.E.Zanke,Germany Zhao-yin Wang,China The World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research(WASER),inaugurated on Oct.19,2004,is an independent non-governmental,non-profit organization.The mission of WASER is to promote international co-operation on the study     

Enhancing remote sensing research on global change to improve our understanding on Earth system processes

正Global Change includes climate change and other environmental changes caused by the joint interaction among various layers of Earth. From the positive side, global change provides new opportunities to human and other living forms on Earth. In the meantime, it creates tremendous challenges and negative impact. At present, the negative impacts have reached all primary processes of the global ecosystem and every aspect of human society, especially causing degradation of the ecosystem. For instance, intensive deforestation causes decline of biodiversity; global warming causes sea level rise and increases     

Solute concentrations in the lower niger river and the source rock contribution

Water quality analyses for the Niger River for the 1980/81 hydrological year are presented. The samples were collected from the main river at Lokoja, and from two main tributaries, the Kaduna and the Benue Rivers. Different water types were distinguished by the concentrations of major ions. The type Ca > Na > Mg > K - HCO₃ > SO₄ > Cl was represented at all stations during at least part of the year. Chloride was found to dominate the sulphate ion in the Kaduna and Niger, while the Benue maintained a higher concentration of sulphate relative to chloride all year round. Distinct patterns of seasonal variation in the ion concentrations were observed, particularly for the samples collected at Lokoja. Low ion concentrations were prominent during periods of high discharge, while low flow periods coincided with high dissolved ion concentrations. The contribution of rainwater to the total dissolved solids in the river waters was assessed indirectly using rainwater chemistry data from the Gulf of Guinea. The estimated rainwater contribution to the Lower Niger amounts to 5.15 mg 1^?1. Geochemical weathering calculations involving reactions of the four major minerals of granitic rocks - anorthite, biotite, albite, and K-feldspar - with carbon dioxide and water, can account for the average water composition of the Lower Niger. The proportion of the ionic components was also related to the occurrence of the respective element in the minerals.