Relatioship between the intensity of tsunami and the location of the epicentre of underwater earthquakes near the continental slope of the South Coast of Crimea

Within the framework of the nonlinear theory of one-dimensional long waves, we performed the numerical analysis of the dependence of the intensity of tsunami on the shelf of the South Coast of Crimea on the location of the epicentre of underwater earthquakes near the continental slope of the basin. The calculations were carried out for the parameters of the model corresponding to the Yalta tsunami of September 12, 1927. It is shown that, for the same magnitude of the earthquake, the smaller the distance from its epicentre to the coastal line, the lower tsunami waves in the coastal zone and the smaller their vertical run-up. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

Numerical modelling of tsunami propagation in the open Black Sea

This paper focuses on the numerical modelling of tsunami propagation in the open Black Sea. Two types of numerical models are discussed: a model for the radial propagation of long waves and an evolutionary finite-difference prognostic model. Experimentally derived numerical data on the model source of tsunamis are reported. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

The possibility of tsunami in the Sea of Okhotsk caused by deep-focus earthquakes

The earthquake that occurred on May 24, 2013, in the basin of the Sea of Okhotsk with a magnitude of 8.3 was the strongest in this region. We have modeled a possible tsunami caused by such an earthquake. The simulations confirm that the wave heights were sufficiently small because the earthquake epicenter depth was 640 km. We analyze the oscillations of the DART buoys in the vicinity of the earthquake source and show that they were not associated with the tsunami waves. Analysis of the available pressure gauge records at different points of the Sea of Okhotsk show that only in one case (Iturup Island) can the observed oscillations of the sea level with a height of approximately 4 cm be classified as tsunami waves.     

A spectral model of underwater irradiance in the Black Sea

We develop a semiempirical spectral model of penetrating irradiance taking into account the biooptical characteristics of the Black Sea. The evaluation of the contributions of the principal optically active components to the total absorption of light in the sea shows that, in the short-wave range (400–500 nm), light is mainly absorbed by the dissolved organic matter (41–77%). The contribution of phytoplankton to the total absorption attains its maximum values (26–37%) in the abyssal part of the sea in the period of spring blooming of diatoms. In the coastal waters, the absorption of light by suspended nonalgae particles in summer is almost twice as intense (20–30%) as in the open sea (8–13%). The analysis of the sensitivity of our model shows that the absorption of light by dissolved organic matter is more significant for the estimation of the photosynthetically active radiation in the Black Sea than the concentration of pigments and backscattering of light by suspended particles. The comparison of the results of model computations with the data of measurements of the underwater irradiance reveals high accuracy of the proposed model.     

Forecasting of tsunami wave heights at the Russian coast of the Black Sea

Forecasting of tsunami wave heights at the Russian coast of the Black Sea is discussed. Prognostic numerical calculations of tsunamis were carried out for the tsunami sources uniformly distributed in the Black Sea basin (a total of 55 events). Their results are compared with the results of numerical modeling of the historical events (in 1939 and 1966) and the data of not numerous measurements. A preliminary forecast is made on this basis for the tsunami wave heights along the Russian coast of the Black Sea.     

基于震级上限估计的渤海海啸危险性与共振特征研究

根据渤海区域地质断层特征和历史地震活动规律,分析得出渤海内潜在最大震级上限为8.1级,并对该海啸源可能的两组震源机制分别进行了数值模拟。模拟结果显示：渤海局部区域海啸波幅最大可达 1.5 m,最大流速可达2.8~3.0 m/s,具备造成灾害损失的风险。在该海啸源情景下,渤海海盆内易激发长期的水位自由振荡,部分区域水位振荡可持续 20 h以上,振荡波幅的大小与海啸首波波幅相当或更大。基于快速傅里叶变换方法对海啸波进行频谱分析,部分长周期频谱成分满足区域固有共振特征。因此,渤海内一旦发生海啸,不仅要关注海啸首波可能造成的灾害性影响,还要密切关注海啸首波到达后,可能产生的长时间、长周期的海啸波共振以及往复式海啸流造成的影响。     

Numerical analysis of the propagation and amplification of tsunami waves on the northwest shelf of the Black Sea

We perform the numerical analysis of the process of propagation of long waves in the northwest part of the Black Sea and consider ten possible zones of the seismic generation of tsunamis. The numerical analysis is performed on a grid with steps of 500 m. It is shown that the location of the tsunami source significantly affects the distribution of the heights of waves along the coast. As a rule, the most intense waves are formed in the closest part of the coast. The earthquakes in the South-Coast seismic zone do not lead to the formation of tsunamis in the west part of the sea. Only strong earthquakes in the northwest part of the sea can be responsible for noticeable oscillations of the Black-Sea level. The period of tsunamis near Odessa is close to 1 h and depends on the magnitude of the earthquake. In the region of Sevastopol, this period is 2--3 times smaller. In the major part of the coastal points, the extreme elevations and lowerings of the sea level do not exceed (in modulus) the initial displacements of the sea surface at the source of tsunamis. An intensification of waves emitted from the zones of generation located in the deeper part of the investigated region was observed for some parts of the Romanian coast and the west coast of Crimea. As the magnitude of the earthquake increases, the intensification of waves near the coast becomes more pronounced.     

渤海海域地震海啸灾害概率性风险评估

渤海作为我国地震活动性最为活跃的近海,其地震海啸风险不可忽视。本文应用概率性海啸风险评估方法对渤海周边区域的海啸风险进行评估。根据历史地震目录建立了渤海区域的震级-频率关系,基于蒙特卡洛算法随机生成了一套10万年的地震目录,最终通过对地震事件的海啸数值模拟及最大波幅的统计分析给出了环渤海区域典型重现期的最大波幅分布以及重点城市的海啸波幅曲线。评估结果表明,渤海地区海啸风险主要集中在渤海湾和莱州湾周边,波幅可达到1~3 m,辽东湾地区海啸风险较低。     

Regional long-period magnitude scales and their capabilities for tsunami warning

The tsunami warning system in the Russian Far East employs the medium-period magnitude MS (BB) by Vaniek–Soloviev. However, its use may lead to inadequacies and underestimates for the tsunamigenic potential of an earthquake. Specifically, this can happen in the case of a so-called tsunami–earthquake. This kind of earthquakes with a nonstandard spectrum was revealed by H. Kanamori in 1972. This problem can be overcome by using a magnitude scale that deals with longer period seismic waves. This study develops a technique for determining the magnitudes at regional distances (from 70 to 4500 km) using the amplitudes of surface seismic waves of periods of 40 and 80 s. At distances of 70–250 km, the amplitude of the joint group of shear and surface waves is used. For the new magnitudes designated M _S(40) and M _S(80), experimental calibration curves are constructed using more than 1250 three-component records at 12 stations of the region. The magnitudes are calibrated so as to produce an unbiased estimate of the moment magnitude M _w in the critical range 7.5–8.8. The rms error of the single-station estimate M _w is around 0.27. At distances below 250 km and M _w ≥ 8.3, the estimate of M _w obtained by the proposed technique becomes saturated at the level of M _w ~ 8.3, which is acceptable for operative analysis because no missed alarms arise. The technique can be used in operational tsunami warning based on seismological data. This can markedly decrease the number of false alarms.     

Numerical modeling of the propagation and strengthening of tsunami waves near the Crimean Peninsula and the Northeast Coast of the Black Sea

The linear model of long waves is used for the evaluation of the parameters of tsunami waves along the South Coast of Crimea, in the near-Kerch zone, and near the northeast coast of the Black Sea. Our numerical investigations are carried out for 24 probable locations of the elliptic zones of tsunami generation over the continental slope of the basin. The amplitude characteristics of tsunamis are computed for 27 sites of the Black-Sea coast. It is shown that significant strengthening of tsunami waves is possible in the course of their propagation toward the coast. The highest waves are formed at the sites of the coast closest to the seismic source. The dependence of the intensity of tsunami waves along the Black-Sea coast on the location of the seismic source and its magnitude is analyzed.     

Hydraulic calculations of postglacial connections between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea

A series of simple hydraulic calculations has been performed to examine some of the questions associated with the reconnection of the Black Sea to the Mediterranean through the Turkish Strait System during the Holocene. Ryan et al.’s catastrophic flood scenario, whereby the erosive power of the marine in-fluxes, initiated after eustatic sea level reached the sill depth, opened up the Bosphorus, allowing saline water to pour into the Black Sea and filling it on a short time scale, is examined. The calculations show that although it might be possible to fill the palaeo-Black Sea within the order of a decade, a 1–2 year filling time scale is not physically possible. A hydraulic model is also used to examine the more traditional connection hypothesis of (near-)continuous freshwater outflow from the Black Sea, with a slowly increasing saline inflow from the Mediterranean beginning around 8–9 kyr BP. The model considers two forms for the structure of the Bosphorus: a shallow sill as seen today and a deep sill associated with no sediments filling the 100 m gorge above the bedrock in the strait. Sensitivity experiments with the hydraulic model show what possible strait geometric configurations may lead to the Black Sea reaching its present-day salinity of 18 psu. Salinity transients within the Black Sea are shown as a function of time, providing for values that can be validated against estimates from cores. To consider a deep, non-sediment-filled Bosphorus (100 m deep), the entry of Mediterranean water into the Sea of Marmara after 12.0 kyr BP is examined. A rapid entry of marine water into the Sea of Marmara is only consistent with small freshwater fluxes flowing through the Turkish Strait System, smaller than those of the present day by a factor of at least 4. Such a small freshwater flux would lead to the salinification of the Black Sea being complete by an early date of 10.2–9.6 kyr BP. Thus the possibility of a deep Bosphorus sill should be discounted.     

南海潜在海啸灾害的模拟

结合南海海域的地形条件、地质构造、地震学特征以及历史地震记录,在回顾总结国内外学者研究的基础上,分析了南海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域,并讨论了在我国南海沿岸发生海啸灾害的潜在可能性。采用目前在国际上广泛使用的COMCOT海啸模式,对马尼拉海沟的潜在地震引发的海啸进行了数值模拟计算,计算中包含了由地震参数到海面初始变形的转换、海啸的深水传播过程以及海啸的浅水传播过程。采用三重嵌套网格,外层网格对应于大范围的深水区域,使用球坐标系下的线性控制方程;第二层网格对应中等范围的较浅水区域,使用球坐标系下的非线性控制方程;第三层网格对应小范围的浅水区域,使用直角坐标系下的非线性控制方程。由模拟计算得到的海啸传时分布、近岸海面升降强度、四个特定点上海面高度随时间变化等的结果表明,我国南海沿岸遭受海啸袭击的可能性是存在的,应进一步对南海海啸进行监测、预警和研究。COMCOT模式性能良好,可用于对南海潜在地震海啸的进一步模拟研究。     

Modelling of underwater seismic centres and the generation and transformation of tsunami waves in seismic areas

The mechanism of underwater earthquakes and tsunami wave generation in the Azov Sea-Black Sea region is studied, and theoretical principles of selecting simulation models are elaborated. In this connection, the geophysical data on the distribution, intensity and mechanisms of underwater seismic zones that may give rise to catastrophic disturbances of the marine environment are summarized and categorized, specifically, those that give rise to tsunamis. This makes possible the development and updating of mathematical models for the generation of seismic and surface gravity waves, considering geological heterogeneities, bottom irregularities, bottom sediments, etc. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Wave dispersion study for tsunami propagation in the Sea of Marmara

In this paper the aim is to investigate whether there are differences between the dispersion and non-dispersion solutions on tsunami propagation. For this purpose, two numerical models of tsunami propagation are compared. One of these numerical models is a nondispersive model that uses Saint Venant equations and the other is a dispersive model that uses Boussinesq equations. The tsunamis resulting from a submarine mass failure (SMF) which is settled at the bottom of the north eastern Sea of Marmara are examined. An analytical solution considering wave dispersion is developed for obtaining near-field tsunami amplitudes above the submarine mass failure. Numerical modeling is used at the sea surface from the common boundary called as liquid boundary with incident waves up to the coastal regions to get the tsunami amplitudes. The output of the analytical model is taken as the disturbances for the numerical method. In the numerical solutions TELEMAC-2D software system is used for both dispersive and nondispersive modeling. The results of the dispersive and nondispersive models are compared to each other. Both temporal and spatial differences in the amplitudes and wave shapes are examined. The obtained results demonstrate that there are no noticeable differences between the dispersion and non-dispersion solutions except some special cases and some special landslide velocities.     

Vertical transport in the Black Sea

Investigations of the vertical exchange coefficientK _z , considering turbulent and advective transport, are summarized. The values ofK _z are determined from the climaticT, S characteristics, heat and salinity fluxes, and the rate of the low-Bosporus water transformation over the entire Black Sea water column; namely, in the upper mixed layer, the active layer, the cold intermediate layer, the halocline, and in the deep and near-bottom waters. A characteristic for annual fluctuations ofK _z in the active layer is given; it is noted that the coefficient tends to grow in transit from the centre of the cyclonic gyre toward its periphery.Translated by V. Puchkin.     

Numerical Modeling of Meteorological Sea Level Oscillations in the Black Sea

Oceanology - To study the features of short-period meteorological sea level oscillations, adaptation of the numerical Princeton Ocean Model (POM) to the Black Sea conditions was performed. The...     

南黄海叶绿素a与初级生产力之间的相关分析

本文依据南黄海海域的调查资料,探讨了叶绿素ａ与初级生产力和真光层内叶绿素ａ积分值之间的相关关系。并对表层叶绿素ａ是否可以作为海洋中浮游植物蕴藏量的指标加以验证。验证的具体方法是分析表层叶绿素ａ（ＳＣ）;真光层内叶绿素ａ积分值（ＩＣ）和初级生产力（ＰＰ）三者之间的相关关系。分析表明：在叶绿素ａ含量高且变化梯度大的高生产力海域,ＳＣ、ＩＣ和ＰＰ之间存在着非常显著的相关性,ＳＣ可以作为某海域浮游植物现存量及其生产力的指标;而在叶绿素ａ和初级生产力低且分布均匀的海域,ＳＣ、ＩＣ和ＰＰ之间不相关。故指出利用ＳＣ作为某海域浮游植物蕴藏量和初级生产力指标时应慎重。     

Variations of the Black Sea level

The annual course of sea level at various sections of the coastline is derived from the interpretation of empirical observations. The paper evaluates the effect of continental discharge, atmospheric pressure, and density distribution upon the local sea level vacillations, and the tendency to multi-annual sea level variability is determined. During this century, against the background of broad spectral oscillations, the Black Sea mean level is rising at the rate of 1.6 mm year⁻¹. The paper examines Man's impact upon the erosion of the shore and the departure of the coastline. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

南海海面高度异常与厄尔尼诺和大气环流的关系

利用经验正交函数分解和相关分析等方法分析研究了南海和赤道太平洋的海面高度异常、海面温度异常和风异常之间的相关关系.得出南海海面高度异常EOF第一模态为ENSO模态,方差贡献达到44.7％.在厄尔尼诺(El Ni(n)o)期间,整个南海海面下降,SSHA呈现不同的分布状态,本文讨论了爆发与下半年的El Ni(n)o期间南海SSHA呈现的典型分布状态.El Ni(n)o的先兆阶段南海中部为SSHA低值区,鼎盛阶段南部SSHA增大形成南高北低的分布状态,恢复阶段SSHA分布与El Ni(n)o过后是否发生La Ni(n)a密切相关.南海海面高度异常与大气环流存在明显的相关关系.El Ni(n)o期间,Hadley环流的加强使得南海东部和赤道西太平洋水交换加强,水温的降低和海水的流失使南海海面下降,Walker环流结构和强度的变化则进一步促进了南海SSH的下降.El Ni(n)o期间,南海海面高度会较常年偏低.