2021年4月大气环流和天气分析

2021年4月中高纬大气环流为三波型,极涡呈单极偏心型分布,强度偏强,西太平洋副热带高压强度较常年偏弱,南支槽较常年偏强。4月主要天气气候特点是全国平均气温为11.1℃,较常年同期偏高0.1℃;全国平均降水量为42.5 mm,较常年同期(45.1 mm)偏少5.8%,其中青海平均月降水量为历史同期第一多。月内,我国遭受四次冷空气过程影响;西南和华南东部气象干旱持续或发展;北方地区出现两次沙尘天气过程;多地遭受风雹袭击,部分地区受灾较重。     

2014年1月大气环流和天气分析

2014年1月大气环流主要特征如下：北半球极涡呈偶极型分布,位置较常年同期明显偏南;欧亚中高纬环流经向度较小;南支槽平均位置位于70°E附近,位置较常年同期明显偏西;同时,西太平洋副热带高压较常年同期略偏弱。1月,全国平均降水量为6.2 mm,较常年同期（13.2 mm）偏少53.0%。全国平均气温为-3.4℃,较常年同期（-5.0℃）偏高1.6℃。月内,我国出现1次主要冷空气过程和4次主要降水过程。北方冬麦区降水偏少,气象干旱持续;中东部地区出现大范围雾或霾天气;南方地区出现低温雨雪天气     

2017年5月大气环流和天气分析

2017年5月大气环流的主要特征是极涡偏强且呈单极型分布,中高纬环流呈多波型,西太平洋副热带高压强度较常年偏强,南支槽强度较常年偏弱。5月全国平均气温17.1℃,较常年同期偏高0.9℃,为1961年以来第4高;全国平均降水量59.4 mm,比常年同期（69.5 mm）偏少14.5%,但5月7日广州出现破历史极值的极端强降水。月内我国南方地区有5次区域性暴雨天气过程;北方出现极端高温过程;东北西部、华北等地发生严重气象干旱;北方地区有2次沙尘天气过程。     

2022年10月大气环流和天气分析北大核心CSCD

2022年10月大气环流的主要特征是北半球极涡呈单极型分布且较常年同期强度偏强,欧亚地区中高纬环流呈“两槽一脊”型,西太平洋副热带高压较常年位置偏西、偏北,强度偏强。10月,全国平均气温为10.8℃,较常年同期(10.6℃)偏高0.2℃;全国平均降水量为34.4 mm,比常年同期(35.6 mm)偏少3.4%。月内我国有2次暴雨天气过程,一次受高空槽、低空急流和副热带高压影响,另一次受台风尼格和高空槽影响。10月共有5个热带气旋在南海和西北太平洋活动,生成个数较常年偏多1.2个,无登陆台风(较常年偏少),其中台风桑卡、纳沙和尼格影响南海、海南岛和华南地区。长江以北气象干旱缓和,长江以南气象干旱持续。     

2013年10月大气环流和天气分析

2013年10月环流特征如下:北半球高纬度地区为单一极涡,强度较常年同期偏强,中高纬环流呈现4波型,北美地区中高纬环流经向度较常年偏大,南支槽偏强,西太平洋副热带高压强度偏强。10月,全国平均降水量为30.8 mm,比常年同期(35.8 mm)偏少14.0%,全国平均气温为11.1℃,比常年同期(10.3℃)偏高0.8℃。月内,冷空气活动频繁,先后有4次冷空气过程影响我国,但只有22—26日的冷空气达到全国较强冷空气标准,其他3次都是影响北方的中等强度冷空气;受台风菲特影响,我国华东地区南部和华南地区北部出现一次强降水过程;江南中部及河南等地气象干旱持续或发展;我国中东部大部地区出现雾霾天气。     

2017年4月大气环流和天气分析

2017年4月大气环流的主要特征是极涡呈偶极型分布,强度偏弱,中高纬环流呈4波型分布,西太平洋副热带高压强度较常年偏强,南支槽强度与常年相当。4月全国平均气温为12.0℃,较常年同期偏高1.0℃;全国平均降水量为44.0 mm,较常年同期偏少2%。月内出现1次全国大范围较强冷空气过程;南方多降水天气,共出现3次区域性暴雨天气;北方出现2次扬沙天气;多省(区、市)局地遭遇风雹灾害。     

2018年4月大气环流和天气分析

2018年4月大气环流的主要特征是极涡偏强且呈偶极型分布,中高纬环流呈4波型,西太平洋副热带高压强度较常年偏弱,南支槽强度较常年偏强。4月全国平均气温12.4℃,较常年同期偏高1.4℃;全国平均降水量43.6 mm,比常年同期（44.7 mm）偏少2.5%。月内我国有3次冷空气过程,其中2—7日为一次全国性强冷空气过程,造成大范围剧烈降温和雨雪天气;北方地区出现5次沙尘过程;南方地区出现3次暴雨过程,其中22—24日的暴雨过程给长江中下游地区造成严重的暴雨洪涝灾害。     

2013年1月大气环流和天气分析

2013年1月大气环流特征为:北半球极涡呈偶极型,极涡范围及强度较常年偏弱,中高纬环流呈三波型,欧亚大陆槽位于西西伯利亚,位置偏北,引导多股冷空气影响我国北方,月内中高纬环流形势调整较大,上旬以经向型环流为主,中下旬则转为纬向型环流;西太平洋副热带高压接近常年同期,东亚大槽位于西北太平洋西岸,较常年偏强,南支槽位于90°E附近,较常年略偏弱.2013年1月,全国平均气温为-5.2℃,略低于常年同期(-5.0℃).月内气温阶段性调整明显,上旬,较同期偏低3℃,下旬,较同期偏高1.7℃.全国平均降水量为6.5 mm,较常年同期(13.2 mm)偏少50.8％.月内出现一次强冷空气过程,雾霾天气频繁,共出现3次较大范围雾霾过程.南方部分地区遭受低温雨雪冰冻灾害,北方局地遭受雪灾,云南大部、贵州西部及四川南部等地气象干旱持续.     

2013年2月大气环流和天气分析

2013年2月大气环流主要特征是:北半球极涡呈偶极型分布,强度较常年同期略偏强;中高纬度环流呈3波型分布,中低纬地区南支槽位置偏西,不利于西南暖湿空气向我国内陆的输送;西太平洋副热带高压强度略偏强。2月全国平均气温为-1.2℃,较常年同期偏高0.5℃。全国平均降水量为14.1 mm,较常年同期(17.4 mm)偏少19.0%。月内我国出现了2次全国性冷空气过程,雾霾天气频繁,西藏南部出现特大暴雪,西南地区干旱持续。     

2011年5月大气环流和天气分析

2011年5月大气环流主要特征如下：北半球极涡呈现双极型,北半球中高纬度环流呈脱四波型分布,亚洲中高纬地区西风带多波动,引导多股冷空气影响我国;东亚大槽较常年同期略偏强,西太平洋副热带高压及南支槽强度接近常年同期。2011年5月,全国平均气温为17.7℃,比常年同期（17.4℃）偏高0.3℃。5月全国平均降水量为81.4 mm,较常年同期（92.6 mm）偏少12.1%。月内共出现两次冷空气过程,7次明显降水过程及一次强沙尘暴过程,长江中下游地区气象干旱持续发展,四川、湖南、广东、广西等地遭受暴雨洪涝灾害,新疆、甘肃、宁夏、河北、山东、湖南、贵州、广东等省区遭受较为严重的风雹灾害。     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.     

前寒武纪气候演化中的三个重要科学问题

自地球形成至寒武纪将近40亿年（距今46亿～5.4亿年,通常称为前寒武纪）的气候演变是一个具有特殊难度和挑战性的研究领域,同时也是基础和前沿的研究领域。文章选择了前寒武纪气候演化中的三个重要科学问题进行综述：大气演化、两次全球性的冰川期以及暗弱太阳问题。关于大气演化,本文首先描述了大气成分的演化历史,然后简述了影响大气成分演化的三个基本过程：大气逃逸、两次大气氧含量突然增加、碳酸盐-硅酸盐循环及其对气候系统的负反馈作用。两次全球性的冰川期分别发生在古元古代（距今24亿～21亿年）和新元古代（距今8亿～5.8亿年）,文章简述了其成因以及相关的气候模拟结果。暗弱太阳问题是地球历史气候演化的一个经典问题,论文简要地综述了一些最新的研究成果和观点。     

淮河流域水文极值预测模型研究

为探索气候变化影响下水文极值的非平稳性和预测方法,建立了水文极值非平稳广义极值（GEV）分布的统计预测模型。利用1952-2010年淮河上游流域累计面雨量和流量年最大值资料、同期500 hPa环流特征量资料以及17个CMIP5模式对环流特征量的模拟结果,筛选出对水文极值影响显著的年平均北半球极涡强度指数作为GEV分布参数的预测因子。分析了在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2006-2050年淮河上游流域水文极值对气候变化的响应。结果表明,10年以下与10年以上重现期的水文极值在非平稳过程中呈现前者下降而后者上升的相反变化趋势;多模型预测的集合平均在未来情景中均呈现上升趋势,情景排放量越大增幅越大,重现期越长增幅也越大。与极值的常态相比,极值的极端态更易受气候变化影响。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.