Evaluation of climate change effects in a coastal aquifer in Morocco using a density-dependent numerical model

A density-dependent numerical groundwater model was applied to study the climate change impact in a shallow aquifer in the Mediterranean coast of Morocco, the Saïdia aquifer. The stresses imposed to the model were derived from the IPCC emission scenarios and included recharge variation and sea level rise. The main effect of the climate change in the Saïdia aquifer will be a decrease in renewable resources, which in the worst-case scenario may decrease to 50–60% of present-day values, due to the decline in recharge and to a reduced inflow from the adjacent Triffa aquifer. The water quality will be affected mostly in the area immediately adjacent to the seashore, where salinity may increase up to 30 g/l. Localised areas may see a decrease in salinity due to the induced freshwater recharge from Oued Moulouya River and diminished inflow from high-salinity springs.     

Modelling the response of shallow groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain,China

A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was implemented to quantify the temporal variation of shallow groundwater levels in response to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios over the next 40 years (2011–2050) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) Plain, China. Groundwater plays a key role in the water supply, but the Jing-Jin-Ji Plain is facing a water crisis. Groundwater levels have declined continuously over the last five decades (1961–2010) due to extensive pumping and climate change, which has resulted in decreased recharge. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) will provide an opportunity to restore the groundwater resources. The response of groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios has been quantified using a groundwater flow model. The impacts of climate change were based on the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset for future high (A2), medium (A1B), and low (B1) greenhouse gas scenarios; precipitation data from CMIP3 were applied in the model. The results show that climate change will slow the rate of decrease of the shallow groundwater levels under three climate-change scenarios over the next 40 years compared to the baseline scenario; however, the shallow groundwater levels will rise significantly (maximum of 6.71 m) when considering scenarios that combine climate change and restrictions on groundwater exploitation. Restrictions on groundwater exploitation for water resource management are imperative to control the decline of levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.     

Groundwater level fluctuation in the Waimea Plains, New Zealand: changes in a coastal aquifer within the last 30 years

Data for the Waimea Plains, New Zealand indicate that the lower confined groundwater aquifer is hydraulically homogeneous and that shallow groundwater levels inland are affected mostly by anthropogenic processes, while those near the coast are affected more by sea level variation. Analysis of long-term data for New Zealand indicates that sea level has increased continuously, but trends are not spatially uniform. Results from non-parametric trend analysis show that rising trends for groundwater levels are predominant in the shallow aquifer both inland on the Waimea Plains and, for recent years, near the coast, while decreasing trends are evident in the underlying confined aquifer near the coast. Groundwater level change in the shallow aquifer appears to be more affected by climate change than the lower confined aquifer. Correlation analysis indicated that groundwater levels are more affected by rainfall during the rainy season than the dry season and more influenced by rainfall inland than near the coast. Groundwater level declines in the lower confined aquifer near the coast, which has its major recharge area inland in the catchment, may be substantially affected by groundwater abstraction in inland areas as well as sea level variation, but there are little evidences of seawater intrusion. Meanwhile, groundwater recharge over the catchment area has great influence on rising groundwater levels in the shallow aquifer and its recharge is estimated to be 417.8 mm/year using chloride concentrations of precipitation and groundwater.     

开采浅层水增雨水入渗引河水补源实现水资源可持续利用

南皮县淡水资源严重短缺,制约工农业与经济社会的发展.春季开采浅层地下水包括微咸水和半咸水抗旱灌溉,腾出地下含水层空间;汛期增加降雨入渗,减少径流流失,防渍防涝,把时空分布不均的天然降雨转化为地下水资源;秋冬利用河道沟渠引蓄河水补源,淡化地下水质,增加地下水可采量.地上水地下水联合运用,保持水资源采补平衡.实现旱涝碱咸综合治理、水资源可持续利用与经济社会可持续发展.     

Climate change and groundwater resources in Thailand

The average temperature of Thailand is projected to increase by 2-3 °C, and the annual rainfall is projected to increase by 25% and up to 50% in certain areas. The climate change in future is expected to provide changes in hydrological cycle and therefore impacts the groundwater resources too. In this study, we analyzed the general climate change trends and reviewed the groundwater conditions of Thailand. The climate changes, hydrologic variability and the impact of climate change on groundwater sustainability are also discussed based on a national groundwater monitoring program. Currently, there are 864 groundwater monitoring stations and 1 524 monitoring wells installed in Thailand. Moreover, the impact of climate change on groundwater-dependent systems and sectors is also discussed according to certain case studies, such as saline water intrusion in coastal and inland areas. Managing aquifer recharge and other projects are examples of groundwater adaptation project for the future.     

Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment under future climate and land cover changes: A case study from southwest China

There is no doubt that land cover and climate changes have consequences on landslide activity, but it is still an open issue to assess and quantify their impacts. Wanzhou County in southwest China was selected as the test area to study rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility under the future changes of land use and land cover (LULC) and climate. We used a high-resolution meteorological precipitation dataset and frequency distribution model to analyse the present extreme and antecedent rainfall conditions related to landslide activity. The future climate change factors were obtained from a 4-member multi-model ensemble that was derived from statistically downscaled regional climate simulations. The future LULC maps were simulated by the land change modeller (LCM) integrated into IDRISI Selva software. A total of six scenarios were defined by considering the rainfall (antecedent conditions and extreme events) and LULC changes towards two time periods (mid and late XXI century). A physically-based model was used to assess landslide susceptibility under these different scenarios. The results showed that the magnitude of both antecedent effective recharge and event rainfall in the region will evidently increase in the future. Under the scenario with a return period of 100 years, the antecedent rainfall in summer will increase by up to 63% whereas the event rainfall will increase by up to 54% for the late 21st century. The most considerable changes of LULC will be the increase of forest cover and the decrease of farming land. The magnitude of this change can reach + 22.1% (forest) and –9.2% (farmland) from 2010 until 2100, respectively. We found that the negative impact of climate change on landslide susceptibility is greater than the stabilizing effect of LULC change, leading to an over decrease in stability over the study area. This is one of the first studies across Asia to assess and quantify changes of regional landslide susceptibility under scenarios driven by LULC and climate change. Our results aim to guide land use planning and climate change mitigation considerations to reduce landslide risk.     

冬小麦田咸水灌溉与土壤盐分调控试验

利用浅层咸水灌溉，可使浅层咸水分布区无效降水转化为有效水资源，缓解北方水资源紧缺的矛盾；通过王瞳试验场进行的咸水灌溉与土壤盐分调控试验表明，利用3g/L左右的微咸水连续灌溉5a，根层土壤溶液浓度未超过小麦的耐盐能力，且作物增产；多年盐分变化趋势为：1994－1997年1m深度内土壤总含盐量在一定范围内波动，总体变化不大，连续干旱的1997－1998年略呈上升趋势；麦秸覆盖和施有机肥能减少根层土壤盐分，对土壤盐分具有有利的调控作用，具有增产效果。     

Impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in a small catchment in the Black Forest, Germany

Temporal and spatial changes of the hydrological cycle are the consequences of climate variations. In addition to changes in surface runoff with possible floods and droughts, climate variations may affect groundwater through alteration of groundwater recharge with consequences for future water management. This study investigates the impact of climate change, according to the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2 and B1, on groundwater recharge in the catchment area of a fissured aquifer in the Black Forest, Germany, which has sparse groundwater data. The study uses a water-balance model considering a conceptual approach for groundwater-surface water exchange. River discharge data are used for model calibration and validation. The results show temporal and spatial changes in groundwater recharge. Groundwater recharge is progressively reduced for summer during the twenty-first century. The annual sum of groundwater recharge is affected negatively for scenarios A1B and A2. On average, groundwater recharge during the twenty-first century is reduced mainly for the lower parts of the valley and increased for the upper parts of the valley and the crests. The reduced storage of water as snow during winter due to projected higher air temperatures causes an important relative increase in rainfall and, therefore, higher groundwater recharge and river discharge.     

早涝碱咸综合治理与生态环境良性循环

华北平原东部淡水资源短缺，旱涝碱成灾害限制了农业生产的可持续发展。海河的治理，解决了排洪排涝排咸出路。春季开发利用地下水包括微咸水和半咸水抗旱灌溉。夏季利用伏雨洗盐排咸，增大降雨入渗，减少径流流失，防治渍涝灾害，把降雨转化为地下水资源。秋冬引蓄河水，回灌地下水补源。以土壤与潜水的地层空间作为调节大气降水、土壤水、地下水、地表水的地下水库，以调控地下水埋深在临界动态为指标，最大限度地把时空分布不均的天然降雨转化为可持续利用的水资源。地表水地下水联合运用，促使水资源采补平衡，降雨灌溉淋洗脱盐强于干旱蒸发积盐过程，地下水淡化强于矿化过程。实现旱涝碱咸综合治理，水土资源可持续利用，经济社会可持续发展，生态环境良性循环。     

河北省任丘市浅层地下水化学特征及形成机制

浅层地下水是任丘市重要的水资源之一,为研究其水化学特征及其形成机制,本文在实地调查取样分析化验的基础上,以水文地球化学理论为指导,借助多元数理统计的方法,从多个角度揭示了研究区浅层地下水的形成演化过程:①通过离散分析,认为研究区各主要离子变异系数较大,说明研究区浅层地下水受人为影响明显,水化学特征复杂.②通过相关分析,...     

Impact of changing climate and land use on the hydrogeology of southeast Australia ∗

Anthropogenic climate change is the Earth's most serious large-scale environmental concern. While the projected changes of global temperatures, rainfall and surface water have been modelled in a sophisticated manner, the impact on groundwater resources is much less well constrained. In southeast Australia, the decrease in rainfall amount and an increase in temperature that are predicted by climate models are generally assumed to reduce the amount of recharge to the groundwater systems. However, the increase in recharge that has resulted from clearing of the native vegetation will almost certainly produce a greater impact on the groundwater system, increasing quantity and potentially improving quality. Additionally, the impact on recharge of changes to rainfall frequency rather than just total amount is not well documented. Overall our understanding of the impacts of climate change on groundwater systems is insufficiently advanced to make firm predictions. Indirect impacts of climate change, particularly the projected increased demand for groundwater or surface water to supplement surface water supplies also will have a major impact that may be greater than the direct effect of climate change.     

Episodic recharge and climate change in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

In semi-arid areas, episodic recharge can form a significant part of overall recharge, dependant upon infrequent rainfall events. With climate change projections suggesting changes in future rainfall magnitude and intensity, groundwater recharge in semi-arid areas is likely to be affected disproportionately by climate change. This study sought to investigate projected changes in episodic recharge in arid areas of the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, using three global warming scenarios from 15 different global climate models (GCMs) for a 2030 climate. Two metrics were used to investigate episodic recharge: at the annual scale the coefficient of variation was used, and at the daily scale the proportion of recharge in the highest 1% of daily recharge. The metrics were proportional to each other but were inconclusive as to whether episodic recharge was to increase or decrease in this environment; this is not a surprising result considering the spread in recharge projections from the 45 scenarios. The results showed that the change in the low probability of exceedance rainfall events was a better predictor of the change in total recharge than the change in total rainfall, which has implications for the selection of GCMs used in impact studies and the way GCM results are downscaled.     

Assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and precipitation change on the surficial aquifer in the low-lying coastal alluvial plains and barrier islands,east-central Florida (USA)

A three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow and salinity transport model is implemented using the SEAWAT code to quantify the spatial variation of water-table depth and salinity of the surficial aquifer in Merritt Island and Cape Canaveral Island in east-central Florida (USA) under steady-state 2010 hydrologic and hydrogeologic conditions. The developed model is referred to as the ‘reference’ model and calibrated against field-measured groundwater levels and a map of land use and land cover. Then, five prediction/projection models are developed based on modification of the boundary conditions of the calibrated ‘reference’ model to quantify climate change impacts under various scenarios of sea-level rise and precipitation change projected to 2050. Model results indicate that west Merritt Island will encounter lowland inundation and saltwater intrusion due to its low elevation and flat topography, while climate change impacts on Cape Canaveral Island and east Merritt Island are not significant. The SEAWAT models developed for this study are useful and effective tools for water resources management, land use planning, and climate-change adaptation decision-making in these and other low-lying coastal alluvial plains and barrier island systems.     

Modeling and assessing land-use and hydrological processes to future land-use and climate change scenarios in watershed land-use planning

Effective information regarding environmental responses to future land-use and climate change scenarios provides useful support for decision making in land use planning, management and policies. This study developed an approach for modeling and examining the impacts of future land-use and climate change scenarios on streamflow, surface runoff and groundwater discharge using an empirical land-use change model, a watershed hydrological model based on various land use policies and climate change scenarios in an urbanizing watershed in Taiwan. The results of the study indicated that various demand and conversion policies had different levels of impact on hydrological components in all land-use scenarios in the study watershed. Climate changes were projected to have a greater impact in increasing surface runoff and reducing groundwater discharge than are land use changes. Additionally, the spatial distributions of land-use changes also influenced hydrological processes in both downstream and upstream areas, particularly in the downstream watershed. The impacts on hydrological components when considering both land use and climate changes exceeded those when only considering land use changes or climate changes, particularly on surface runoff and groundwater discharge. However, the proposed approach provided a useful source of information for assessing the responses of land use and hydrological processes to future land use and climate changes.     

Impacts of future climate and land cover changes on landslide susceptibility: regional scale modelling in the Val d’Aran region (Pyrenees,Spain)

It is widely accepted that future environmental changes will affect rainfall-induced shallow slides in high-mountain areas. In this study, the Val d’Aran region located in the Central Pyrenees was selected to analyze and quantify the impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) and climate changes on regional landslides susceptibility. We analyzed 26 climate models of the EURO-CORDEX database focussing on the future rainfall conditions. The IDRISI TerrSet software suite was used to create the future LULC maps. These two inputs were analyzed individually and in a combined way defining 20 different scenarios. All these scenarios were incorporated in a physically based stability model to compute landslides susceptibility maps. The results showed that both environmental conditions will considerably change in the future. The daily rainfall will increase between 14 and 26% assuming a return period of 100 years. This intensification of precipitation will produce an overall decrease of the stability condition in the study area. Regarding the LULC prediction, the forest area will significantly increase, while in particular grassland, but also shrubs decrease. As a consequence, the overall stability condition improves, because the root strength is higher in forest than in grassland and shrubs. When we analyzed the combined impacts, the results showed that the positive effect of LULC changes is larger than the negative influence of rainfall changes. Hence, when combining the two aspects in the future scenarios, the stability condition in the study area will improve.

     

Impacts of sea-level rise and urbanization on groundwater availability and sustainability of coastal communities in semi-arid South Texas

The sea levels along the semi-arid South Texas coast are noted to have risen by 3–5 mm/year over the last five decades. Data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) indicate that this trend will continue in the 21st century with projected sea level rise in the order of 1.8–5.9 mm/year due to the melting of glaciers and thermal ocean expansion. Furthermore, the temperature in South Texas is projected to increase by as much as 4 °C by the end of the 21st century creating a greater stress on scarce water resources of the region. Increased groundwater use hinterland due to urbanization as well as rising sea levels due to climate change impact the freshwater-saltwater interface in coastal aquifers and threaten the sustainability of coastal communities that primarily rely on groundwater resources. The primary goal of this study was to develop an integrated decision support framework to assist land and water planners in coastal communities to assess the impacts of climate change and urbanization. More specifically, the developed system was used to address whether coastal side (primarily controlled by climate change) or landward side processes (controlled by both climate change and urbanization) had a greater control on the saltwater intrusion phenomenon. The decision support system integrates a sharp-interface model with information from GCMs and observed data and couples them to statistical and information-theoretic uncertainty analysis techniques. The developed decision support system is applied to study saltwater intrusion characteristics at a small coastal community near Corpus Christi, TX. The intrusion characteristics under various plausible climate and urbanization scenarios were evaluated with consideration given to uncertainty and variability of hydrogeologic parameters. The results of the study indicate that low levels of climate change have a greater impact on the freshwater-saltwater interface when the level of urbanization is low. However, the rate of inward intrusion of the saltwater wedge is controlled more so by urbanization effects than climate change. On a local (near coast) scale, the freshwater-saltwater interface was affected by groundwater production locations more so than the volume produced by the community. On a regional-scale, the sea level rise at the coast was noted to have limited impact on saltwater intrusion which was primarily controlled by freshwater influx from the hinterlands towards the coast. These results indicate that coastal communities must work proactively with planners from the up-dip areas to ensure adequate freshwater flows to the coast. Field monitoring of this parameter is clearly warranted. The concordance analysis indicated that input parameter sensitivity did not change across modeled scenarios indicating that future data collection and groundwater monitoring efforts should not be hampered by noted divergences in projected climate and urbanization patterns.     

Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater levels on the Kerdi-Shirazi plain,Iran

It is important to predict how groundwater levels in an aquifer will respond to various climate change scenarios to effectively plan for how groundwater resources will be used in the future. Due to the overuse of groundwater resources and the multi-year drought in the Kerdi-Shirazi plain in Iran, some land subsidence and a drop in groundwater levels has taken place, and without active management, further degradation of the groundwater resource is possible under predicted future climate change scenarios in the country. To determine the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater levels in the region, the groundwater model GMS was coupled with the atmospheric circulation model HADCM3 using scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 for the period 2016–2030. The results of the climate modelling suggest that the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will experience an increase in minimum temperature and maximum temperature of, respectively, between 0.03 and 0.47, and 0.32–0.45 °C for this time period. The results of the groundwater modelling suggest that water levels on the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will continue to decline over the forecast period with decreases of 34.51, 36.57 and 33.58 m being predicted, respectively, for climate scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. Consequently, groundwater resources in the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will urgently need active management to minimize the effects of ongoing water level decline and to prevent saltwater intrusion and desertification in the region.     

Hydrogeological investigation of shallow aquifers in an arid data-scarce coastal region (El Daba’a,northwestern Egypt)

Hydrogeological investigations in arid regions are particularly important to support sustainable development. The study area, El Daba’a in northwestern Egypt, faces scarce water resources as a result of reported climate change that particularly affects the southern Mediterranean coast and increases stress on the local groundwater reserves. This change in climate affects the area in terms of drought, over-pumping and unregulated exploration of groundwater for irrigation purposes. The hydrogeological investigation is based on a multidisciplinary data-layer analysis that includes geomorphology, geology, slope, drainage lines, soil type, structural lineaments, subsurface data, stable isotopes, and chemical analyses. The study area contains Pleistocene and middle Miocene marine limestone aquifers. Based on lithology and microfacies analysis, the middle Miocene aquifer is subdivided into two water-bearing zones. The area is affected by sets of faults and anticline folds, and these structures are associated with fractures and joints that increase permeability and facilitate the recharge of groundwater. Stable isotope data indicate that groundwater of both the Pleistocene and middle Miocene aquifers is recharged by modern precipitation. The high salinity values observed in some groundwater wells that tap both aquifers could be attributed to leaching and dissolution processes of marine salts from the aquifers’ marine limestone matrix. In addition, human activities can also contribute to an increase in groundwater salinity. A future water exploration strategy, based on the results from the multidisciplinary data-layer analysis, is proposed for the area. The derived scientific approach is transferable to other arid coastal areas with comparable conditions.     

Relationship between groundwater properties and soil salinity at the Lower Nam Kam River Basin in Thailand

The Lower Nam Kam River Basin lies in the vicinity of the Mekong River and is located in the eastern section of the Nakhon Panom Province in northeastern Thailand. Drought, particularly in the winter and summer seasons, is the main environmental challenge in this area. In addition, soil becomes saline and groundwater is brackish in some locations. This problem worsens the drought crisis in the area. Groundwater is known to closely relate to the soil salinity distribution. To successfully manage highly saline areas, saline groundwater and soil properties must be evaluated together. Therefore, the main objective was to study the shallow groundwater physical and chemical properties in conjunction with surface soil salinity. Soil samples were collected and measured for physical and chemical properties. Shallow groundwater was measured for depth from ground surface and sampled from the sites in the study area. The water samples were measured for pH, total dissolved solids, electrical conductivity, and salinity. Results were interpolated and displayed via a geographic information system and further analyzed by simple linear regressions between surface soil salinity and the other factors. The results show that the topsoil contaminated with salinity is typically situated in relatively low areas with shallow groundwater levels and low head gradient of groundwater. This is due to the characteristics of the soil profile and groundwater depth.     

大陆岛地下水动力学特征—以湛江东海岛为例

东海岛是一具有独特水文地质条件的大陆岛,浅层含水层与大陆以浅海湾相隔,中深层承压水含水层与大陆地下水系统紧密相连。为了深入地认识大陆岛地下水水动力学特征,以湛江东海岛为例,阐述了其水文地质条件,并分析了东海岛浅、中、深层地下水的流场和动态特征。分析结果表明,东海岛为一个典型且独特的大陆岛,岛内和大陆的部分浅层含水层由湛江湾相隔,岛内中、深层含水层和大陆中、深层含水层通过湛江湾相连,且具有统一的水位分布,并保持着密切的水力联系,岛内中、深层地下水由南向北径流补给湛江市区的降落漏斗中心;滨海及海水区域浅层含水层及其下伏的粘土层构成了防止海水入侵中、深层地下水的保护层;浅层地下水流场基本保持天然状态,水位动态特征主要为入渗径流型,水位变化与降雨量相关;中、深层地下水流场以人工流场为主,地下水由南向北径流,水位动态类型主要为开采动态型,水位变化主要受到开采量变化的影响;在近海岸地区,地下水动态表现为潮汐效应型,在潮汐作用下,地下水位动态具有周期性。