D) Other Organisations—D) Autres Organisations

Abstract

Lake Poopó, within the large Altiplano basin of Bolivia, is connected upstream to Lake Titicaca and downstream to the salares, the big salt fields. Small changes in precipitation and river inflows strongly affect the extent of the lake surface area. For times when there are no satellite images, it is difficult to determine the extent of the lake from observations. Water balance computations were performed to create a water-level series for Lake Poopó extending back in time. The dominant water inflow to Lake Poopó is from the River Desaguadero, which constitutes the outflow of Lake Titicaca. The water-balance computations confirm the crude peasant knowledge about historical lake status. It is found that if the lake level is less than 1 m during the wet season, there is a risk that this shallow lake dries out in the dry season.     

Combining the SWAT model with sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm for streamflow prediction and uncertainty analysis for the Lake Dianchi Basin,China

Streams play an important role in linking the land with lakes. Nutrients released from agricultural or urban sources flow via streams to lakes, causing water quality deterioration and eutrophication. Therefore, accurate simulation of streamflow is helpful for water quality improvement in lake basins. Lake Dianchi has been listed in the ‘Three Important Lakes Restoration Act’ in China, and the degradation of its water quality has been of great concern since the 1980s. To assist environmental decision making, it is important to assess and predict hydrological processes at the basin scale. This study evaluated the performance of the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and the feasibility of using this model as a decision support tool for predicting streamflow in the Lake Dianchi Basin. The model was calibrated and validated using monthly observed streamflow values at three flow stations within the Lake Dianchi Basin through application of the sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm (SUFI‐2). The results of the autocalibration method for calibrating and the prediction uncertainty from different sources were also examined. Together, the p‐factor (the percentage of measured data bracketed by 95% prediction of uncertainty, or 95PPU) and the r‐factor (the average thickness of the 95PPU band divided by the standard deviation of the measured data) indicated the strength of the calibration and uncertainty analysis. The results showed that the SUFI‐2 algorithm performed better than the autocalibration method. Comparison of the SUFI‐2 algorithm and autocalibration results showed that some snowmelt factors were sensitive to model output upstream at the Panlongjiang flow station. The 95PPU captured more than 70% of the observed streamflow at the three flow stations. The corresponding p‐factors and r‐factors suggested that some flow stations had relatively large uncertainty, especially in the prediction of some peak flows. Although uncertainty existed, statistical criteria including R² and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency were reasonably determined. The model produced a useful result and can be used for further applications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1960-2012年鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件时空演变特征

基于鄱阳湖流域五河7个主要入湖控制站1960-2012年的实测径流资料,通过短周期旱涝急转指数,结合TFPWMK趋势检验法及集合经验模态分解法,分析了鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件的时空分布、演变趋势、强度及周期变化等,并探讨了旱涝急转指数的不确定性及旱涝急转事件的成因.结果表明:鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件主要分布在3-10月,其中3-6月主要表现为"旱转涝",7-10月主要表现为"涝转旱",且不同年代间存在一定的时空差异;五河以轻度旱涝急转事件为主,重度旱涝急转事件发生频率较低,主要发生在抚河、信江和饶河流域,且多以"涝转旱"事件为主;在年代际上,鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件在1990s发生的频率最高,在2000s最低.同时,除饶河外,鄱阳湖流域年最强"涝转旱"事件的发生强度呈减弱趋势,而年最强"旱转涝"事件的发生强度在赣江和修水北支有减弱趋势,在饶河和修水南支有增强趋势.五河旱涝急转的变化存在2个特征时间尺度,分别为1a和21～35a,而年最强旱涝急转事件的发生强度具有3a左右的周期变化特征.这些变化与流域降水的不均匀性及强烈的人类活动等有关.本研究结果有助于全面系统认识鄱阳湖流域在全球变暖背景下极...     

Water allocation under the constraint of total water-use quota: a case from Dongjiang River Basin,South China

A constrained total water-use policy has been implemented to maintain sustainable water supply in some water shortage areas. Managing a constrained water-use quota (T) in water allocation is a challenging goal. This paper proposes a new framework for water allocation under total water-use constraint by utilizing the concept of the Newsboy model, commonly used in operations management and applied economics, and applying it to the Dongjiang River Basin, South China. This framework considers T as a state variable of the objective function, rather than simply dealing with it as a constraint of multi-objective analysis. Using this framework, it is revealed how different schemes of T play out in water allocation, and water-use warning is provided for each sector and water governor in water resources management.     

Multi-objective autocalibration of SWAT model for improved low flow performance for a small snowfed catchment

ABSTRACT

A reliable modelling framework needs to ensure that the model is simulating reality with limited uncertainty, thus enhancing its predictive ability. In the literature, hydrological model assessment using one or more metrics is reported to be inadequate when the river flow regime is required to be reproduced comprehensively. This research is aimed to: (a) calibrate the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) based on the concept of multi-objective optimization by applying the Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA); (b) apply hydrological signatures as objective functions; and (c) adopt a multi-metric approach for model evaluation. The SWAT model was coupled with a relatively newer and powerful Borg MOEA. The inclusion of hydrological signatures as objective functions along with the conventional statistical functions assisted in improving the performance for low flows by 135% in terms of volume efficiency and 65% for flow time series simulation.     

贵州草海湿地不同水位梯度沉积物中汞、砷形态分布及风险评价

通过改进Tessier连续提取法对贵州草海黑颈鹤栖息地不同水位梯度下沉积物汞(Hg)、砷(As)形态及生态风险进行了研究.结果表明,草海湿地沉积物中Hg含量在0.45～1.51-mg/kg之间,超过国家土壤环境质量农用地土壤风险管控标准;形态组成上,残渣态汞(Res-Hg)>有机结合态汞(Org-Hg)>碳酸盐结合态(Car-Hg)>铁锰氧化态(Fe-O-Hg)>可交换态(Ex-Hg),不同水位梯度下含量和赋存形态在不同区域不一致.As含量在16.4～23.8-mg/kg之间,形态依次为残渣态砷(Res-As)>有机结合态砷(Org-As)>铁锰氧化态砷(Fe-O-As)>碳酸盐结合态砷(Car-As)>可交换态砷(Ex-As).-As含量与贵州省土壤背景值持平,随着水位梯度的抬升,其总量呈增加趋势,残渣态占比逐步增多,性质逐渐稳定.采用地积累指数(I_geo)、潜在生态风险指数(E_rⁱ)、风险评价编码法(RAC)对Hg、As的危害程度进行分析表明,基于草海较高Hg环境背景值...     

Glacial lake depth and volume estimation based on a large bathymetric dataset from the Cordillera Blanca,Peru

Glacial lakes are most often located in remote places making it difficult to carry out detailed bathymetric surveys. Consequently, lake depths and volumes for unmeasured lakes are often estimated using empirical relationships developed mainly from small bathymetric datasets. In this study, we use the bathymetry dataset of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru comprising 121 detailed lake bathymetries, the most extensive dataset in the world. We assess the performance of the most commonly applied empirical relationships for lake mean depth and volume estimation, but also investigate relationships between different geometric lake variables. We find that lake volume estimation performs better when derived from lake mean depth, which in turn is estimated from lake width. The findings also reveal the extreme variability of lake geometry, which depends on glacio-geomorphological processes that empirical–statistical relationships cannot adequately represent. Such relationships involve characteristic uncertainty ranges of roughly ±50%. We also estimate potential peak discharges of outburst floods from these lakes by applying empirical relationships from the literature, which results in discharges varying by up to one-order of magnitude. Finally, the results are applied to the 860 lakes without bathymetric measurements from the inventory dataset of the Cordillera Blanca to estimate lake mean depth, volume and possible peak discharge for all unmeasured lakes. Estimations show that ca. 70% (610) of the lakes have a mean depth lower than 10 m and very few longer than 40 m. Lake volume of unmeasured lakes represent ca. 32% (5.18 × 10⁸ m³) of the total lake volume (1.15 × 10⁹ m³) in the Cordillera Blanca. Approximately, 50% of the lakes have potential peak discharges > 1000 m³/s in case of lake outburst floods, implying a need for additional studies for risk assessment. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

应用底栖动物完整性指数评价太湖生态健康

依据2010年春季至2012年秋季,太湖32个样点的底栖动物和环境变量共11次的季节性调查结果,采用干扰程度最小系统法定义构建底栖动物生物完整性指数的参照系统,提出了确定参照系统的4个基本条件,进而按非湖心区和湖心区两个生态区分别构建太湖底栖动物完整性指数(LTB-IBI).通过对候选生物参数的分布范围筛选、判别能力分析、与理化因子的相关性和参数间的冗余分析,获得了非湖心区LTB-IBI的4个构成指数:总分类单元数、Simpson多样性指数、前3位优势单元%和BMWP指数,以及湖心区LTB-IBI的5个构成指数:总分类单元数、Simpson多样性指数、甲壳+软体分类单元数、前3位优势单元%和BMWP指数.采用比值法统一构成指数量纲,分别构建了非湖心区和湖心区LTBIBI指数,评价太湖水生态健康的等级.2010-2012年,太湖生态健康总体上呈现逐步提升的趋势.影响太湖底栖动物完整性的重要环境变量是水体中的氮含量.研究表明,连续观察数据可较大程度上提高太湖LTB-IBI指数的可靠性和评价结果的合理性.     

Development and deployment of an instrument for measurement of atmospheric peroxy radical by chemical amplification

An instrument for measurement of peroxy radical by chemical amplification (PERCA) has been devel- oped at Peking University (PKU) and deployed in several field campaigns. PKU PERCA measures per- oxy radical via amplification of NO2 by peroxy radical in the presence of NO and CO through a chain reaction. The amount of amplified NO2 is detected by a NO2-luminal chemiluminescence detector. The chain length (CL) of 75±20 (1σ ) was determined routinely during field campaigns using a HO2 source from photolysis of...     

东洞庭湖4种濒危鹤类近30年种群动态及栖息地景观格局变化

东洞庭湖是4种濒危鹤类：白头鹤（Grus monacha）、白枕鹤（G.vipio）、白鹤（G.leucogeranus）和灰鹤（G.grus）的越冬地,但尚无东洞庭湖越冬鹤类种群动态及栖息地变化的系统研究.本研究调查收集了近30年来东洞庭湖4种鹤类的种群状况,并选取相应越冬季的东洞庭湖卫星图片,提取不同时期东洞庭湖湿地景观格局数据,分析鹤类种群动态与湿地景观格局之间的关联.结果表明：近30年来,东洞庭湖4种濒危鹤类种群数量均呈不同程度的下降.目前4种鹤类集中分布于采桑湖、丁字堤一带,灰鹤种群数量尚维持有二百余只,而白头鹤、白枕鹤和白鹤仅有不足10只的零星分布.1999-2000年后东洞庭湖水域及泥滩面积迅速下降并快速破碎化是导致鹤类种群下降的重要原因.未来应从保护及恢复东洞庭湖鹤类栖息地入手,加大鹤类保护,逐渐恢复东洞庭湖鹤类种群.     

SWAT model application and prediction uncertainty analysis in the Lake Tana Basin,Ethiopia

Lake Tana Basin is of significant importance to Ethiopia concerning water resources aspects and the ecological balance of the area. Many years of mismanagement, wetland losses due to urban encroachment and population growth, and droughts are causing its rapid deterioration. The main objective of this study was to assess the performance and applicability of the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model for prediction of streamflow in the Lake Tana Basin, so that the influence of topography, land use, soil and climatic condition on the hydrology of Lake Tana Basin can be well examined. The physically based SWAT model was calibrated and validated for four tributaries of Lake Tana. Sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI‐2), parameter solution (ParaSol) and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) calibration and uncertainty analysis methods were compared and used for the set‐up of the SWAT model. The model evaluation statistics for streamflows prediction shows that there is a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows that was verified by coefficients of determination and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0·5. The hydrological water balance analysis of the basin indicated that baseflow is an important component of the total discharge within the study area that contributes more than the surface runoff. More than 60% of losses in the watershed are through evapotranspiration. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于水华蓝藻固有光学特性的主要类群定量识别方法

蓝藻水华是湖泊水体富营养化的重要特征之一,不同水华蓝藻类群形成的水华特征、危害及其治理方法差异显著.因此,如何快速、准确地掌握不同蓝藻类群的时空分布特征成为实施富营养化湖泊污染治理与生态恢复、蓝藻生态灾害预测预警中一个亟待解决的科学问题.本研究基于纯藻种实验室培养和室内光学控制实验,在微囊藻(Microcystis)、鱼腥藻(Dolichospermum)、束丝藻(Aphanizomenon)3种主要水华蓝藻固有光学特性的基础上,通过甄别不同水华蓝藻的吸收、散射和后向散射光谱的特征波段,构建了基于吸收和散射特性的5种水华蓝藻类群的非线性最优化定量识别模型,其中,基于440、620和675 nm 3个波段吸收的a-CIM 440,620,675具有较为稳定的定量识别能力;并基于野外实测光学特性数据,实现了巢湖主要水华蓝藻类群的定量监测,初步分析了巢湖主要水华蓝藻类群的时空分布特性.研究表明,巢湖的水华蓝藻以鱼腥藻、微囊藻为主,束丝藻较少,鱼腥藻主要出现在温度较低的季节,微囊藻在夏季的西部湖区占优势;巢湖水华主要为微囊藻藻华和鱼腥藻藻华,且浓度较高的蓝藻主要存在于水体表面以下20 cm范围内;微囊藻和鱼腥藻在非藻华断面垂向上均匀分布.本研究可为富营养化湖泊蓝藻水华预测预警以及相关管理部门决策提供重要的理论依据和科学支撑.     

A Bioenergetics Approach to Modeling PCB Bioaccumulation in Lake Ontario Salmonids

The objective of this paper is to compare the trend of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) bioaccumulation in three species of Lake Ontario salmonids with similar diet patterns and habitat. The concept of bioenergetics, which relates the growth and energy expenditure of a fish directly to its food consumption, is integrated into the study of pollutant accumulation. The resulting bioaccumulation model is a comprehensive approach that combines the physiological information of the fish, such as diet, metabolism, respiration, habitat, age and species, with the environmental conditions in the lake. The three species of salmonids studied are Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush), Brown Trout (Salmo trutta), and Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). The model, which relies on a lakewide water quality and fish sampling database from the Ontario Ministry of Environment and Energy, is applied to study the pattern of total body burden of PCBs over the life span of the fish. Results from the model compare favorably to the data, and the observations clearly demonstrate the relative effects of food and water contamination on the time-dependent accumulation of PCBs in the bodies of fish. It is observed that different species sharing the same habitat and exposed to similar water contaminant concentrations are exhibiting marked difference in the body accumulation of PCBs. This difference is successfully reproduced with the model through judicious representation of their diet preferences and generically-governed metabolisms.     

湖北长湖富营养化状况及时空变化(2012-2013年)

为评估长湖水体富营养化程度,2012-2013年分4个季度对全湖区20个采样点的物理、化学和生物要素进行监测,在评价水质现状的基础上采用综合营养状况指数法和浮游植物细胞丰度指数法综合评价水体营养状况,并应用典型相关分析(CCA)方法揭示水体富营养化状况与湖泊理化要素之间的典型相关性.结果显示:4个季节长湖全湖区的水质均处于地表水IV类~劣V类水标准;综合营养状态指数值在49.54~82.55之间,浮游植物细胞丰度在2.88×106~61.73×106cells/L之间,均显示其处于富营养化状态;长湖富营养化状况的分布呈现一定的时空差异性;CCA分析显示,长湖理化要素变量可解释68.6%的水体富营养化状况变量的变异,影响其富营养化状况的主要理化因素有水体总磷、总氮、溶解氧、亚硝态氮、硝态氮浓度,水深和沉积物总磷、总氮含量.长湖水体富营养化主要是由于外源的磷污染,其次是氮污染,富营养化最严重的夏、秋季浮游植物的生长主要受氮营养限制,而冬、春季则部分受磷营养限制,部分属于过渡类型.因此,建议大力削减围网/围栏养殖量,同时考虑结合水生植物栽种等生态工程建设措施以降低长湖水体发生严重富营养化的风险,并进一步改善长湖的水质现状.     

太湖和巢湖中微囊藻(Microcystis)与长孢藻(Dolichospermum)的长时序变化及其驱动因子

随着我国湖泊治理力度的加大,太湖和巢湖的营养盐水平,特别是氮水平近年来明显下降,如2007年以后太湖总氮和近年来巢湖的氨氮水平都呈现下降趋势,但是2个湖泊水华蓝藻的优势种却向相反的方向演化,太湖的长孢藻(Dolichospermum)比例在增加,而巢湖的长孢藻比例却在降低,为阐明这种变化过程和驱动因素,本研究利用太湖(19932015年)和巢湖(2012 2018年)的历史数据分析了2个湖泊中的水华蓝藻——微囊藻(Microcystis)和长孢藻生物量的历史变化过程,并结合营养盐数据分析了影响2种水华蓝藻变动的驱动因素.结果显示:太湖和巢湖的微囊藻生物量多年来始终保持高位波动,近年来均有升高的趋势,这与2个湖泊磷的高位波动具有明显的相关性,磷是决定微囊藻生物量长尺度变化的主要驱动因素;太湖的长孢藻生物量呈现较大波动变化,2007年以后明显升高,巢湖的长孢藻生物量则明显下降,氮与长孢藻生物量呈现负相关关系,而且这种负相关仅在低磷浓度时具有显著性.微囊藻生物量对磷浓度变化敏感的正反馈响应是其水华形成的重要机制之一,在高温高磷条件下,微囊藻可以快速繁殖,并竞争性排除长孢藻,从而形成优势;而长孢藻可以通过温度生态位和固氮两种方式占据优势,在氮浓度相对较低,且温度低于微囊藻形成水华的温度范围时,长孢藻可以依靠温度生态位的优势形成水华,而在氮限制的条件下,即使在夏季高温时,长孢藻依然可以利用固氮作用形成水华,但是关键的温度阈值和开始固氮的氮浓度阈值仍不清楚.基于2种水华蓝藻对营养盐变化响应的差异,建议在进行蓝藻水华治理、污染削减过程中,应针对不同水华蓝藻的特性进行分时段分类别的营养盐控制策略.     

Transient modelling of lacustrine regressions: two case studies from the Andean Altiplano

A model was developed for estimating the delay between a change in climatic conditions and the corresponding fall of water level in large lakes. The input data include: rainfall, temperature, extraterrestrial radiation and astronomical mid‐month daylight hours. The model uses two empirical coefficients for computing the potential evaporation and one parameter for the soil capacity. The case studies are two subcatchments of the Altiplano (196 000 km²), in which the central low points are Lake Titicaca and a salar corresponding to the desiccation of the Tauca palaeolake. During the Holocene, the two catchments experienced a 100 m fall in water level corresponding to a decrease in water surface area of 3586 km² and 55 000 km², respectively. Under modern climatic conditions with a marked rainy season, the model allows simulation of water levels in good agreement with the observations: 3810 m a.s.l. for Lake Titicaca and lack of permanent wide ponds in the southern subcatchment. Simulations were carried out under different climatic conditions that might explain the Holocene fall in water level. Computed results show quite different behaviour for the two subcatchments. For the northern subcatchment, the time required for the 100 m fall in lake‐level ranges between 200 and 2000 years when, compared with the present conditions, (i) the rainfall is decreased by 15% (640 mm/year), or (ii) the temperature is increased by 5·5 °C, or (iii) rainfall is distributed equally over the year. For the southern subcatchment (Tauca palaeolake), the time required for a 100 m decrease in water level ranges between 50 and 100 years. This decrease requires precipitation values lower than 330 mm/year. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Input data measurement-induced uncertainty in watershed modelling

Abstract

This study presents a new methodology for estimation of input data measurement-induced uncertainty in simulated dissolved oxygen (DO) and nitrate-nitrogen (NO₃-N) concentrations using the Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) model and data from the Amite River, USA. Simulation results show that: (1) a multiplying factor of 1.3 can be used to describe the maximum error in temperature measurements; similarly, a multiplying factor of 1.9 was estimated to accommodate the maximum of ±5% error in rainfall measurements; (2) the uncertainty in simulated DO concentration due to positive temperature measurement errors can be described with a normal distribution, N(0.062, 0.567); (3) the uncertainty in simulated NO₃-N concentration due to rainfall measurement errors follows a generalized extreme value distribution; and (4) the probability density functions can be utilized to determine the measurement-induced uncertainty in simulated DO and NO₃-N concentrations according to the risk level acceptable in water quality management.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Patil, A. and Deng, Z.-Q., 2012. Input data measurement-induced uncertainty in watershed modelling. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 118–133.     

Structural uncertainty assessment in a discharge simulation model

Abstract

A major goal in hydrological modelling is to identify and quantify different sources of uncertainty in the modelling process. This paper analyses the structural uncertainty in a streamflow modelling system by investigating a set of models with increasing model structure complexity. The models are applied to two basins: Kielstau in Germany and XitaoXi in China. The results show that the model structure is an important factor affecting model performance. For the Kielstau basin, influences from drainage and wetland are critical for the local runoff generation, while for the XitaoXi basin accurate distributions of precipitation and evapotranspiration are two of the determining factors for the success of the river flow simulations. The derived model uncertainty bounds exhibit appropriate coverage of observations. Both case studies indicate that simulation uncertainty for the low-flow period contributes more to the overall uncertainty than that for the peak-flow period, although the main hydrological features in these two basins differ greatly.

Citation Zhang, X. Y., Hörmann, G., Gao, J. F. & Fohrer, N. (2011) Structural uncertainty assessment in a discharge simulation model. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 854–869.