Estimating the confidence of earthquake damage scenarios: examples from a logic tree approach

Earthquake loss estimation is now becoming an important tool in mitigation planning, where the loss modeling usually is based on a parameterized mathematical representation of the damage problem. In parallel with the development and improvement of such models, the question of sensitivity to parameters that carry uncertainties becomes increasingly important. We have to this end applied the capacity spectrum method (CSM) as described in FEMA HAZUS-MH. Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology, Earthquake Model, Advanced Engineering Building Module. Federal Emergency Management Agency, United States (2003), and investigated the effects of selected parameters. The results demonstrate that loss scenarios may easily vary by as much as a factor of two because of simple parameter variations. Of particular importance for the uncertainty is the construction quality of the structure. These results represent a warning against simple acceptance of unbounded damage scenarios and strongly support the development of computational methods in which parameter uncertainties are propagated through the computations to facilitate confidence bounds for the damage scenarios.     

Static equivalent method for the kinematic interaction analysis of single piles

This paper presents a static equivalent approach to estimate the maximum kinematic interaction effects on piles subjected to lateral seismic excitation. Closed-form expressions are reported for the evaluation of the maximum free-field soil movements and for the computation of maximum pile shear force and bending moments. Firstly, modal analysis, combined with a suitable damped response spectrum, is used to evaluate the maximum free-field response. Secondly, the pile is schematised as a Winkler's beam subjected to equivalent static forces defined according to soil vibration modal shapes and amplitude. The method may be applied by using response spectra suggested by National Standards or those obtained with accelerograms. The procedure proposed may be conveniently implemented in simple spreadsheets or in commercial finite element programs and easily used by practicing engineers. Method accuracy is demonstrated by comparing the results with those obtained with a more rigorous model. Good results may be achieved by considering only the first soil vibration mode making the procedure straightforward for practical design purposes.     

有限元方法在地震孕育过程与前兆机理研究中的应用进展

有限元方法的基本思想是将连续的求解区域离散为一组有限个、 且按一定方式相互联结在一起的单元的组合体。 有限元方法是目前应用最为广泛的数值模拟方法, 由于能够将复杂介质的力学本构关系及边界条件问题转化成为常规问题的计算程序, 所以越来越多的地震学者将其应用于地震成因与前兆机理研究中。 该文着重介绍了有限元数值分析方法及其模拟在地震孕育过程与前兆机理研究中的应用进展, 并提出开展小尺度规模如岩石中矿物颗粒之间的力学行为的有限元模拟研究等几点建议。     

Preliminary investigation of seismic damage to two steel space structures during the 2013 Lushan earthquake

Severe damage to steel space structures is rarely reported when compared to other structural systems damaged during past major earthquakes around the world.Two gymnasiums of steel space structures in downtown Lushan County that were damaged during the 2013 M7.0 Lushan earthquake in China were investigated and the observations are summarized in this paper.Typical damage to these two steel space structures ranges from moderate to severe.Moderate damage includes global buckling and dislocation of bolted connections of truss members,and inelastic elongation of anchor bolts and sliding of pedestal plates of supports.Severe damage includes member fracture caused by local buckling,and fracture failure of anchor bolts and welds.The distribution of structural damage to these two structures is described in detail and future research opportunities are suggested.     

Evidence for fault-related directionality and localized site effects from strong motion recordings of the 2003 Boumerdes (Algeria) earthquake: Consequences on damage distribution and the Algerian seismic code

The Algiers–Boumerdes region has been struck by a destructive magnitude 6.8 (M_w) earthquake on May 21, 2003. The study presented in this paper is based on main shock strong motions from 13 stations of the Algerian accelerograph network. A maximum 0.58g peak ground acceleration (PGA) has been recorded at 20 km from the epicenter, only about 150 m away from a PGA of 0.34g, with both a central frequency around 5 Hz, explained by a strong very localized site effect, confirmed by receiver function technique results showing peaks at 5 Hz with amplitudes changing by a factor of 2. Soil amplifications are also evidenced at stations located in the quaternary Mitidja basin, explaining the higher PGA values recorded at these stations than at stations located on firm soil at similar distances from the epicenter. A fault-related directionality effect observed on the strong motion records and confirmed by the study of the seismic movement anisotropy, in agreement with the N65 fault plan direction, explains the SW–NE orientation of the main damage zone. In the near field, strong motions present a high-frequency content starting at 3 Hz with a central frequency around 8 Hz, while in the far field their central frequency is around 3 Hz, explaining the high level of damage in the 3- to 4-story buildings in the epicentral zone. The design spectra overestimate the recorded mean response spectra, and its high corner frequency is less than the recorded one, leading to a re-examination of the seismic design code that should definitively integrate site-related coefficient, to account for the up to now neglected site amplification, as well as a re-modeling of the actual design spectra. Finally, both the proposed Algerian attenuation law and the worldwide laws usually used in Algeria underestimate the recorded accelerations of the 6.8 (M_w) Boumerdes earthquake, clearly showing that it is not possible to extrapolate the proposed Algerian law to major earthquakes.     

基于区域地震活动频次对比的余震删除方法

从尽可能科学地删除余震, 又保留有价值的地震预测信息的目的出发, 提出了一种既考虑地震序列特征, 又基于主震后孕震区内的余震活动频次与区域地震活动正常时段频次相比的删除余震方法(简称SMRZ方法), 编制了相应的计算程序。 以西北地区发生的几次较大地震为例, 对该文提出的SMRZ方法、 广泛使用的K-K方法以及G-C方法的删除余震效果进行了对比研究。 结果表明, 与其他方法相比, 笔者提出的方法识别余震时、 空分布范围比较合理, 同时保留了对未来地震有重要预测意义的前震, 有较好的实际应用效果。     

钢筋混凝土结构的屈服位移Chopra能力谱损伤分析与性能设计

本文提出了应用地震损伤指数评定结构抗震性能要求的方法。首先，建立了抗力谱曲线和结构损伤指数的关系，得到了反映不同设防水准损伤目标的结构地震务容许延性系数；其次，应用屈服位移Chopra能力谱法确定地震损伤延性系数；然后，提出了应用结构地震损伤延性系数和容许延性系数之间的关系来评定结构抗震性能的方法；最后，通过算例说明了本文方法实施的步骤。     

RC剪力墙结构小震与中震设计对比及其抗震性能研究

近年来,国内学者强调对于复杂和超限结构需进行中震性能设计,即在小震弹性设计后进行中震下的承载力复核及调整,然而中震设计能否提高结构整体抗震性能仍存在争议.为探究中震设计与小震设计方法的差异,本文依据现行规范,以设防烈度、结构高度和场地类别为变化参数,建立了48个典型RC剪力墙模型,并分别以"小震"、"高规中震"、"广东...     

青海东南部农村民居结构特点及抗震能力分析

我国农村民居的抗震能力具有显著的地域特点。本文基于现场调研结果总结了青海东南部黄河流域农村民居的结构特点,并对其抗震能力进行了评估。庄廓院是调研区内的典型农村民居,本文对调研区内庄廓院的木构架房屋进行研究,提出庄廓土墙围护木构架房屋的震害等级分类标准,根据实际震害资料和类比的方法确定了当地土墙围护木构架结构的震害矩阵和震害指数与峰值加速度的关系曲线。与云南鲁甸农村的土木结构房屋比较,青海庄廓院民居具有更高的抗震能力;与未设防的砖混结构比较,这种土墙围护的木构架结构在高烈度区造成人员伤亡的风险更低。     

燃气管网地震破坏快速评估方法研究

针对燃气管网基础资料难以获取的实际情况,利用有限数据开展燃气管网地震破坏的快速评估方法研究。基于历史震害统计分析结果,修订了燃气管网地震破坏等级划分方法;当燃气管网震害率模型不完备时,提出了类比供水管网震害率模型获得燃气管网震害率模型的方法。以东部发达城市上海市和西部石油城市新疆克拉玛依市为列,评估了2个城市在不同地震影响烈度下燃气管网的地震破坏情况,评估结果完全符合地震现场调查结论。     

Effects of near-fault and far-fault ground motions on nonlinear dynamic response and seismic damage of concrete gravity dams

As the forward directivity and fling effect characteristics of the near-fault ground motions, seismic response of structures in the near field of a rupturing fault can be significantly different from those observed in the far field. The unique characteristics of the near-fault ground motions can cause considerable damage during an earthquake. This paper presents results of a study aimed at evaluating the near-fault and far-fault ground motion effects on nonlinear dynamic response and seismic damage of concrete gravity dams including dam-reservoir-foundation interaction. For this purpose, 10 as-recorded earthquake records which display ground motions with an apparent velocity pulse are selected to represent the near-fault ground motion characteristics. The earthquake ground motions recorded at the same site from other events that the epicenter far away from the site are employed as the far-fault ground motions. The Koyna gravity dam, which is selected as a numerical application, is subjected to a set of as-recorded near-fault and far-fault strong ground motion records. The Concrete Damaged Plasticity (CDP) model including the strain hardening or softening behavior is employed in nonlinear analysis. Nonlinear dynamic response and seismic damage analyses of the selected concrete dam subjected to both near-fault and far-fault ground motions are performed. Both local and global damage indices are established as the response parameters. The results obtained from the analyses of the dam subjected to each fault effect are compared with each other. It is seen from the analysis results that the near-fault ground motions, which have significant influence on the dynamic response of dam–reservoir–foundation systems, have the potential to cause more severe damage to the dam body than far-fault ground motions.     

Multi-step prediction of strong earthquake ground motions and seismic responses of SDOF systems based on EMD-ELM method

This paper proposes a new multi-step prediction method of EMD-ELM (empirical mode decomposition-extreme learning machine) to achieve the short-term prediction of strong earthquake ground motions. Firstly, the acceleration time histories of near-fault ground motions with nonstationary property are decomposed into several components of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with different characteristic scales by the technique of EMD. Subsequently, the ELM method is utilized to predict the IMF components. Moreover, the predicted values of each IMF component are superimposed, and the short-term prediction of ground motions is attained with low error. The predicted results of near-fault acceleration records demonstrate that the EMD-ELM method can realize multi-step prediction of acceleration records with relatively high accuracy. Finally, the elastic and inelastic acceleration, velocity and displacement responses of single degree of freedom (SDOF) systems are also predicted with satisfactory accuracy by EMD-ELM method.     

2017年8月9日精河6.6级地震烈度分布与房屋震害特征分析

通过对2017年8月9日精河6.6级地震灾区内共计355个调查点的实地调查,确定了此次地震的烈度分布。灾区最高烈度为Ⅷ度（8度）,灾区面积15623km²,灾区总人口487696人,其中,受灾人口133695人,地震共造成36人受伤;对各烈度区内不同结构类型房屋的震害现象进行了整理,分析了不同结构类型房屋的抗震能力与震害原因,结果显示,土木结构房屋倒塌及屋檐塌落是导致人员受伤的主要原因;砖木结构房屋缺乏抗震设施,破坏形式多样;砖混结构房屋在高烈度区破坏较重;框架结构房屋主体完好但填充墙普遍出现破坏。安居富民房屋抗震性能良好。     

基于InSAR同震形变场反演汶川M_w7.9地震断层滑动分布

通过综合分析2008年5月12日汶川地震野外地震地质考察的地表破裂带空间分布及分段资料,结合InSAR干涉形变场资料,构建了五段断层儿何结构模型,该模型与野外地震地质考察结果在多数分段上基本一致;基于此五段断层模型,运用敏感性迭代拟合算法反演了汶川地震InSAR同震形变场,获得了断层滑动分布及部分震源参数.结果表明,基于余震精定他获得的地震断层倾角模型模拟的同震形变场与InSAR形变场吻合较好,且残差较小;反演的滑动分布主要集中于地下0～20 km,最大滑动量分别位于北川及青川等地区,最大可达到10 m;沿SW-NE走向,断层面的滑动方向主要以右旋兼逆冲形式为主,在汶川及都江堰地区以强烈的逆冲为主兼有一定右旋走滑分量,在北川及映秀地区以逆冲兼右旋运动为主,在平武及青川等地区则逐渐过渡为以右旋运动为主兼有一定的逆冲分量,其中汶川地区的平均滑动角为97°,北川地区的平均滑动角为119°,青川地区平均滑动角为138°.反演矩张量为7.7×10~(20)N·m,矩震级达M_w7.9.     

银川盆地深地震断层的三维透射成像

为了获得三维地震透射成像技术在活断层探测中的有效性和应用价值的评价,在银川盆地中北部布设了一个三维地震透射台阵,利用该台阵获得的基底初至折射波和莫霍界面反射波资料,采用有限差分反演、时间项反演和连续速度模型反演方法,对台阵区域基底及上地壳结构进行了分析.结果表明：研究区基底呈东西浅、中部深的界面形态,且西陡东缓,最深处大致位于芦花台至西大滩一带,埋深达7 km.芦花台断层、银川—平罗断层、黄河断层在研究区内均表现为北北东走向的速度差异条带,且断层两侧基底及沉积界面埋深存在显著变化.芦花台断层东倾,倾角较陡,延伸至研究区基底之下;银川—平罗断层倾向西,是一条超基底的隐伏断层;黄河断层西倾,延伸深度超过研究区基底.本探测结果证明,初至折射波与莫霍面反射波探测相结合的三维地震透射台阵技术能够给出研究区上地壳三维细结构图像,不仅可以揭示主要断裂的展布位置、浅部空间形态和特征,而且可以揭示断裂向基底之下的延伸状况.     

基于InSAR同震形变场反演汶川Mw7.9地震断层滑动分布

通过综合分析2008年5月12日汶川地震野外地震地质考察的地表破裂带空间分布及分段资料,结合InSAR干涉形变场资料,构建了五段断层几何结构模型,该模型与野外地震地质考察结果在多数分段上基本一致;基于此五段断层模型,运用敏感性迭代拟合算法反演了汶川地震InSAR同震形变场,获得了断层滑动分布及部分震源参数.结果表明,基于余震精定位获得的地震断层倾角模型模拟的同震形变场与InSAR形变场吻合较好,且残差较小;反演的滑动分布主要集中于地下0～20 km,最大滑动量分别位于北川及青川等地区,最大可达到10 m;沿SW-NE走向,断层面的滑动方向主要以右旋兼逆冲形式为主,在汶川及都江堰地区以强烈的逆冲为主兼有一定右旋走滑分量,在北川及映秀地区以逆冲兼右旋运动为主,在平武及青川等地区则逐渐过渡为以右旋运动为主兼有一定的逆冲分量,其中汶川地区的平均滑动角为97°,北川地区的平均滑动角为119°,青川地区平均滑动角为138°.反演矩张量为7.7×10²⁰ N·m,矩震级达M_w7.9.     

利用PMC方法评估地震台阵的地震检测能力——以西昌流动地震台阵为例

为实现对高密度、宽频带流动地震台阵地震检测能力的实时、不同深度评估,本研究采用"基于概率的完整性震级"(PMC)方法,以西昌流动地震台阵为例,对2013-01-13—2014-05-14期间平均的地震检测能力、不同震源深度检测能力,以及某一时刻的实时地震检测能力进行了评估.结果表明,PMC方法可识别地震观测资料处理中人为因素对地震检测能力的影响,不同震源深度下地震的检测能力存在差异,其中H=7.5 km时,"网内"的完整性震级MP可达ML0.8,而在H=15.0 km和25.0 km时,"网内"的MP分别为ML1.0和ML1.4.在示例的2014-01-14时刻,非正常运行的台站造成地震检测能力的变化可被清晰识别出.此外,与MAXC和EMR等其它常用方法的对比表明,这些方法可能过高估计了地震台阵的检测能力.     

Study on the severest real ground motion for seismic design and analysis

How to select the adequate real strong earthquake ground motion for seismic analysis and design of trucures is an essential problem in earthquake engineering research and practice.In the paper the concept of the severest design ground motion is proposed and a method is developed for comparing the severity of the recorded strong ground motions.By using this method the severest earthquake ground motions are selected out as seismic inputs to the structures to be designed from a database that consists of more than five thousand significant strong ground moton records collected over the world.The selected severest ground motions are very likely to be able to drive the structures to their critical response and thereby result in the highest damage potential.It is noted that for different structures with diffferent predominant natural periods and at different sites where structures are located the severest design ground motions are usually different.Finally.two examples are illustrated to demonstrate the rationality of the concept and the reliability of the selected design motion.     

Revision of seismic design codes corresponding to building damagesin the “5.12” Wenchuan earthquake

A large number of buildings were seriously damaged or collapsed in the 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake. Based on field surveys and studies of damage to different types of buildings, seismic design codes have been updated. This paper briefly summarizes some of the major revisions that have been incorporated into the Standard for classification of seismic protection of building constructions GB50223-2008 and Code for Seismic Design of Buildings GB50011-2001. The definition of seismic fortification class for buildings has been revisited, and as a result, the seismic classifications for schools, hospitals and other buildings that hold large populations such as evacuation shelters and information centers have been upgraded in the GB50223-2008 Code. The main aspects of the revised GB50011-2001 code include: (a) modification of the seismic intensity specified for the Provinces of Sichuan, Shanxi and Gansu; (b) basic conceptual design for retaining walls and building foundations in mountainous areas; (c) regularity of building configuration; (d) integration of masonry structures and precast RC floors; (e) requirements for calculating and detailing stair shafts; and (f) limiting the use of single-bay RC frame structures. Some significant examples of damage in the epicenter areas are provided as a reference in the discussion on the consequences of collapse, the importance of duplicate structural systems, and the integration of RC and masonry structures.     

2013年四川芦山7.0级地震烈度遥感评估

2013年4月20日四川芦山MS7.0级地震发生后,在灾区应急获取了多种高分辨率航空和无人机遥感影像,并快速解译提取了灾区建筑物震害信息.采用地震烈度遥感定量评估方法,利用2008年汶川8.0级地震等震后震害遥感解译和现场调查研究确定的经验震害遥感定量评估模型,获得了芦山地震灾区126个主要居民点的地震烈度遥感评估结果,并据此圈画了地震烈度分布遥感评估图.结果显示,本次地震Ⅸ度区面积约150km2,Ⅷ度区面积约900km2.该结果在第一时间(4月21日晚)提供给了中国地震局地震现场应急指挥部.对比分析显示,地震烈度遥感快速评估结果与中国地震局4月25日公布的地震烈度图,以及与笔者在现场实地进行的建筑物震害详细调查结果基础上评定的地震烈度具有较高的一致性.表明强烈地震发生后,借助于快速获取的灾区高分辨率遥感影像,可以快速估计地震烈度分布,对地震灾区灾情估计和抗震救灾工作具有十分重要的参考意义.