优势种密度制约及其对森林群落物种多样性维持的影响（英文）

本研究以南亚热带优势树种黄果厚壳桂(Cryptocarya concinna)为研究对象,采用控制实验与样地调查相结合的方法,验证密度制约对群落物种多样性维持的影响。通过在黄果厚壳桂母树周围建立24个成对的1 m×1 m幼苗样方,定期进行幼苗群落调查并做土壤杀菌,分析杀菌处理对黄果厚壳桂幼苗存活率及其幼苗物种丰富度的影响。并通过样地调查进行不同龄级相对多度与群落均匀度的相关分析。结果表明,杀菌处理可显著降低幼苗群落物种丰富度。黄果厚壳桂幼树密度随着离母树距离的增加而增加,其种群占整个群落的相对多度随着树龄呈递减趋势,黄果厚壳桂种群优势地位的减少将直接导致群落均匀度的增加,从而避免单优种群的发生,促进多物种共存。。     

居民对三江源国家公园生态旅游资源的支付意愿及影响因素研究（英文）

为了研究居民对保护区生态旅游资源的支付意愿及影响因素,本文以三江源国家公园为例,使用条件价值法(CVM)研究了居民对三江源国家公园的生态旅游资源保护的支付意愿。本研究采用实地调研方式,使用双边界问题启发技术对被调查者进行支付意愿的调查,共回收有效问卷244份,在广义线性模型中引入了社会信任因素以及居民对三江源国家公园生态旅游和相关管理策略的意识因素。研究结果表明:(1)2018年,居民对三江源国家公园生态旅游资源保护的支付意愿为1.2448×107元;(2)收入和受教育程度对居民的支付意愿(WTP)和受偿意愿(WTA)有重要影响,而其他社会特征(如性别和年龄)则没有显著影响;(3)社会信任是影响居民支付意愿的重要因素,尽管仅受过有限的教育,但居民不理解名词术语这一事实并不妨碍他们的支付意愿;(4)与政府资助相关的因素导致居民倾向于支付、工作和接受补偿(WTP、WTW和WTA),但是由于地理和社会异质性,不同县之间的支持力度有所不同;(5)居民觉得其支付意愿(WTP)的产出应用于保护和恢复野生动植物、植被、土壤和水资源。本研究首次估算了三江源国家公园的生态资产价值,为了保持三江源国家公园可持续发展的长期利益,补偿应视具体地点而定,政府应采取基于当地资源的发展措施,另外,三江源国家公园有必要大力支持生态旅游活动。     

中亚能源安全的定量分析及其政治影响因素（英文）

中亚国家距离公海遥远,仅凭管道出口或进口石油,因此面临着来自油气管道沿线国家巨大的地缘政治压力。本研究选取了哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦作为中亚出口国代表,选取吉尔吉斯斯坦作为中亚进口国代表,从相关性、多样性和国际关系影响三个角度,利用2005—2016年联合国COMTRADE数据库的能源贸易数据,分析中亚国家所面临的能源风险。研究结果显示:哈土两国的石油市场多样化程度较高且市场之间相关程度较低,这种市场配置使出口国、过境国和进口国之间的关系对石油出口的影响较小;而土库曼斯坦的天然气市场因为多样性不足,国际关系能够对天然气出口造成较大的影响;吉尔吉斯斯坦的能源进口仅来源于数个相邻或相近的国家。本文认为中亚国家的能源安全深受四个政治因素的影响:(1)与俄罗斯的关系很大程度上决定了中亚国家能源出口市场的格局,因为中亚国家市场多样化的关键在欧洲;(2)中亚能源博弈的管线竞争对中亚国家能源出口安全有重要影响,因为这些新管道能够将中亚与欧洲和中国市场直接联系在一起;(3)中国作为邻近中亚的巨大能源市场能够帮助中亚国家有效回避俄罗斯对能源出口的控制;(4)对于进口国而言,中亚地区的地缘政治格局对其能源安全起到了决定性的作用。     

藏北高原草地生态系统碳储量及其影响因素（英文）

探究草地生态系统碳储量及其驱动因素对实现双碳目标具有重要意义,藏北高原作为我国重要的草地生态系统,其碳储量现状,空间格局以及驱动因素仍存在很大的争议。本文基于藏北高原150个实测样点数据,通过克里金插值和统计方法,评估分析了藏北高原草地生态系统的地上生物量碳密度、地下30 cm深度根系碳密度和土壤碳密度及其空间分布,以及各碳库的主要影响因素。结果表明：藏北高原地上生物量碳密度平均为0.038 kg C m^-2,地下生物量碳密度平均为0.284 kg C m^-2,土壤碳密度值最大,平均为7.445 kg C m^-2。藏北高原草地生态系统总碳储量约为4.08 Pg C,其中植被碳库0.58 Pg C(包括地上生物量和地下生物量),土壤碳库2.58 Pg C (其余分布在裸地中),碳储量分布格局呈现出从东南向西北递减趋势。植被碳库0.58 Pg C(包括地上生物量和地下生物量),约占青藏高原植被碳库的28.29%;土壤碳库2.58 Pg C,约占青藏高原土壤碳库的26.60%。降水、温度和土壤质地均影响生态系统碳储量,其中降水...     

中国旅游交通的能源效率及其影响因素（英文）

交通是旅游过程中能源消耗和碳排放的主要环节,认识旅游交通能源效率变化及其影响因素对推动旅游低碳化发展具有重要意义。基于中国旅游交通及相关数据,在测算不同类型旅游交通工具能源消耗系数的基础上,遵循"自上而下"原则构建新的研究方法,分析考察1994-2013年旅游交通的能源消耗、碳排放、能源效率及其影响因素。结果显示,1)中国旅游交通能源消耗由178.21PJ增长至565.82PJ,年均增长率为6.27%,相应的CO_2排放由14.96×10~6 t增长至47.94×10~6 t,主要由旅游出游人次数快速增长和旅游出行距离增加引起;2)中国旅游交通能源服务效率由3.22×10~6人次PJ~(-1)提高至5.99×10~6人次PJ~(-1),能源生态效率由26.07 kg人次~(-1)提升至14.01 kg人次~(-1);3)单位交通能耗降低、规模效应、政策推动等成为能源效率提高的主导推动因素,但旅游出行方式变化、享受型交通工具的发展等阻碍了能源效率的提升。基于分析结果,提出了中国旅游交通降低能源消耗、提高能源效率的建议措施。     

中国土地流转的区域差异及其影响因素（英文）

Land circulation is an important measure that can be utilized to enable agricultural management at a moderate scale.It is therefore imperative to explore spatiotemporal changes in land circulation and the factors that drive these variations in order to maintain and increase the vitality of the land rental market.An initial analysis of spatiotemporal patterns in land circulation is presented in this study on the basis of data from 169,511 farm households between 2003 and 2013.The rural fixed observation point system advocated by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture was utilized for this analysis,and Heckman two-stage models were developed and estimated in order to identify the drivers of regional differences in land circulation at the national scale and at the levels of different terrains.The results of this study show that the rate of land circulation in China rose from 15.09% to 25.1% over the course of the study period,an average rate of 0.8%.More specifically,data show that the rate of land circulation in the south of China has been higher than in the north,that the average land rental payment was 4256.13 yuan per ha,and that 55.05% of households did not pay such a fee during the land circulation process.In contrast,the average rent obtained was 3648.45 yuan per ha nationally even though 52.63% of households did not obtain any payments from their tenants.The results show that land quality,geographic location,transaction costs,and household characteristics have significantly affected land circulation in different regions of China.Specifically,the marginal effects of land quality and geographic location were larger in the plain regions,while transaction cost was the key factor influencing land circulation in the hilly and mountainous regions.The signal identified in this study,rent-free land circulation,is indicative of a mismatch that has led to the marginalization of mountainous regions and higher transaction costs that have reduced the potential value of land resources.Thus,as the opportunity cost of farming continues to rise across China,the depreciation of land assets will become irreversible and the phenomenon of land abandonment will become increasingly prevalent in hilly and mountainous regions in the future.The transaction costs associated with the land rental market should be reduced to mitigate these effects by establishing land circulation intermediaries at the township level,and the critical issues of land abandonment and poverty reduction in hilly and mountainous regions should arouse more attention.     

耕地撂荒的影响因素及其模拟模型研究进展（英文）

近年来,耕地撂荒在全球众多国家和地区都呈现出严重的发展趋势,耕地撂荒已成为土地利用变化领域重要的研究问题之一。准确解析耕地撂荒的影响因素,构建科学的模型模拟耕地撂荒的态势,合理评估耕地撂荒的潜在影响,成为耕地撂荒研究关注的焦点问题。本文在全面总结耕地撂荒相关研究的基础上,综述了耕地撂荒的自然、人文与政策驱动因素,梳理了耕地撂荒模拟的主要模型及其优缺点。在此基础上,讨论了耕地撂荒的主要生态效应,并展望了相关研究未来的发展方向。研究发现:(1)对于耕地撂荒的影响因素,需要格外关注劳动力价格变化、劳动力老龄化对于耕地撂荒的影响;(2)对于耕地撂荒模拟模型,需要加强基于农户的撂荒机理模型与宏观大尺度撂荒预测模型的研制;(3)对于耕地撂荒的生态环境效应,除了需要关注耕地撂荒对粮食生产以及生态系统方面的影响外,还需要重视耕地撂荒对景观文化方面的影响。     

喜马拉雅地区林线格局及其对气候变化的响应（英文）

喜马拉雅地区拥有世界上最高和最多样的林线。亚高山林线作为山地森林和高山植被之间最明显的边界之一,多年来一直吸引着研究者的兴趣。然而,由于地理位置偏远,与欧洲同领域的研究相比,喜马拉雅山脉的林线生态学研究不足。本文综述了气候变化情景下喜马拉雅地区的植物区系组成、林线的分布格局和气候条件,形成林线的碳供应机制,以及气候变化影响下林线的迁移和林木更新。研究发现西藏东部地区是喜马拉雅林线分布最高的地区,大果圆柏和川西云杉是分布最高的林线树种,林线是低温限制导致植物生长受限形成的,全球林线有相当一致的低温阈值,而水分和养分并非林线形成的全球限制因子。在未来全球变暖的情况下,预计林线将向更高海拔推进,但在大多数情况下,林线交错带树木更新增加比林线推进更常见。为了使我们能够预测人类活动和相关的全球变化对这一敏感区域的潜在影响和变化,需要对林线交错带进行更详细的机制研究。     

京津冀地区1985–2000期间林地变化的时空格局及其影响因素（英文）

林地是维护生态安全,实现区域可持续发展的根本基础资源。林地变化可能导致一些生态环境问题,包括土壤侵蚀,水资源短缺,干旱加剧以及生物多样性的丧失。本文以景观生态学和逻辑回归模型为基础,探讨了京津冀地区1985-2000期间林地变化的时空格局及其影响因素。格局分析结果表明,林地景观破碎化正在下降和林地形状变得越来越规则。通过建立Logistic回归模型,这项研究旨在探讨这一区域1985-2000期间林地变化的重要变量。对于京津冀地区1985-2000期间林地变化而言,土壤有机质含量,坡度(5°),到最近村庄的距离以及人均国内生产总值是最重要的解释变量。研究表明,空间异质性会影响到林地变化的逻辑回归模型的可预测性。     

中国生态旅游区域协作影响因素及其模式研究（英文）

生态旅游区域协作是联合生态资源开发、促进自然生态保护和实现区域发展的制度保障,也是解决中国生态旅游发展掣肘的关键。中国地域广阔,山地、水域等大型自然地理实体常常是行政区的自然分界线,受到行政体制分割的影响,这些地区的生态资源利用通常是独立分化式开发,造成地方政府之间生态旅游产品的低层次、重复建设,限制了我国生态旅游水平的进一步提高。因此,需要针对以上问题,构建符合我国国情的区域生态旅游合作的空间体系和模式。本文系统梳理了生态旅游区域协作发展的影响因素和发展障碍,提出了中国生态旅游区域协作的空间发展和协作模式。结果表明:(1)生态旅游区域协作是建立在自然地带性、文化社会相似性、区域经济发展协同性和政策一体化基础上的必然选择;(2)生态旅游区域协作主要存在有行政区划壁垒、合作动力不足、合作模式松散、区域划分不清等四个关键问题;(3)中国生态旅游协作发展应采用生态旅游功能片区、协作区、风景道、线路、节点相结合立体化空间治理模式,从点、线、面三个层次构建一体化的协作体系。本研究对于未来中国的区域生态旅游协作和空间体系构建具有理论指导意义。     

成渝经济圈生态效率时空动态演变及其影响因素（英文）

为了响应国家十四五规划,更好地探索促进区域协调绿色发展的新战略,本文采用super-SBM模型和马尔可夫链对成渝经济圈2004–2018年的生态效率值进行了测算与时序分析,同时,利用地理加权回归模型对生态效率进行了空间分析。虽然成渝经济圈生态效率在研究期间有所提高,但其经济发展仍然是生态无效的,这意味着成渝迫切需要提高资源利用效率,促进技术创新。在研究期间,成渝经济圈的生态效率的演变呈现为“π”字形状,并伴随着“俱乐部趋同”的现象,此现象表明生态效率有保持原状的强烈趋势,说明生态效率缺乏足够的改善动力,因此很难实现跨越式转移。从空间上看,生态效率从西北向东南呈高–低–高效率分布,生态效率的时空差异缩小,但集聚效应相对较弱且呈现两极分化趋势。进一步的研究表明,城镇化发展水平、对外开放水平、技术水平、环境规制和产业结构高级化是导致生态效率空间差异的原因。成渝经济圈应针对各自弱点相应采取改善措施提高生态效率,从而促进整个区域的绿色发展。     

中国草食家畜养殖的时空动态及其影响因素（英文）

The development of grass-feeding livestock breeding is the key to promoting the transition from grain-consumption type animal husbandry to grain-saving type animal husbandry in China, and to solving the problem of competition for grain between people and livestock. From the perspective of economic geography, this paper first defines the conversion standard for the breeding quantity of livestock, and then uses exploratory spatial data analysis technology and econometric models and methods to systematically investigate the sequential variation process, geographical aggregation characteristics, and influencing factors of grass-feeding livestock breeding in China. The study results show the following: 1) The breeding quantity of grass-feeding livestock in China has an obvious overall growth trend, but there is an obvious difference among the livestock species. During the period 1978–2012, the breeding quantity of grass-feeding livestock in China grew by 92.5%; and the breeding quantity within the same period was beef cattle sheep dairy cow. 2) On the county scale, the number of increasing areas of the breeding quantity of grass-feeding livestock is larger than the number of decreasing areas, and the growth rate of breeding quantity of grass-feeding livestock in northern China is higher than that in southern China, which initially forms the pattern of "hot in the north and cold in the south". 3) The spatial Durbin model shows that the per capita output of grain, proportion of productive land area, urban per capita disposable income, agricultural mechanization level, agricultural labor productivity and policy factor have positive effects on the development of grass-feeding livestock breeding, while the per capita GDP, urbanization level and proportion of non-agricultural income have obvious negative effects on it. 4) Grass-feeding livestock breeding in China can be divided into six major types of areas, and each type of area should be regulated and controlled in terms of their respective focus of attention according to regional conditions and situation of agricultural production.     

围栏引起的有蹄类动物死亡及其对未来祁连山国家公园管理的启示（英文）

围栏是牧区畜牧业的重要组成部分。但是,这些围栏也给野生动物带来了很多负面影响,会制约它们的活动范围,妨碍其种群扩散甚至会直接导致死亡。甘肃盐池湾国家级自然保护区未来将成为祁连山国家公园的重要组成部分,本文对该区内围栏的现状及其所产生的影响进行了评估。我们通过70份调查问卷,了解了当地牧民对围栏的看法、围栏对野生有蹄类动物的威胁以及观察到的被围栏缠绕的野生动物的数量。我们发现,如果当地居民发现用于管理牲畜的围栏会伤害到野生动物,他们更可能意识到围栏带来的负面影响,那些认为围栏对野生动物有害的人更有可能支持拆除围栏。然而,对于需要雇用他人来照看家畜的牧民,支持围栏拆除的可能性较小。最佳模型只解释了部分数据差异,这表明虽然对围栏威胁的认识很重要,但其他因素可能也会影响牧民对围栏拆除的支持度。因此,为了能在新的国家公园内成功开展围栏拆除工作,有必要强化社区服务和社区合作,以减少围栏拆除对牲畜管理的影响。调查发现,当地牧民在围栏上发现过死亡的藏野驴、盘羊和藏原羚,其中发现藏野驴的次数明显多于其他两个物种。这一结果表明,前述三个物种可能更容易被围栏缠绕,未来需要加强相关研究,这将有助于推动围栏拆除计划的实施。     

气候变化对喜马拉雅中部甘达基河流域濒危物种的影响预测（英文）

甘达基河流域位于喜马拉雅山脉中部,是众多濒危野生物种的重要栖息地。然而气候变化使该流域的生态环境变得愈发脆弱。本研究利用最大熵物种分布模型(Max Ent)评估气候变化对喜马拉雅黑熊(Ursus thibetanus laniger)和印度花豹(Panthera pardus fusca)等濒危物种空间分布变化的潜在影响。研究基于物种出没地点、生物气候和地形(海拔、坡度和坡向)等数据拟合模拟并预测物种在目前与未来的潜在分布情况。研究结果显示,目前喜马拉雅黑熊的高度适宜区面积约为1642 km²,占流域面积的5.01%,预计至2050年,其高度适宜区面积在甘达基河流域内将会增加约51 km²;印度花豹的高度适宜区面积约为3999 km²,占流域面积的12.19%,预计至2050年可能会增加到4806 km²。喜马拉雅黑熊的栖息地面积可能会在研究区域的东部(伯塞里、塔托潘尼和班塞以北)增加,而在东部(颂当、切坎帕)、西部(布尔提邦和波邦)和北部(桑波切、玛南、切坎帕)减少;印度花豹的栖息地面积则将在研究...     

山体效应及其对林线分布的影响(英文)

The concept of mass elevation effect(massenerhebungseffect,MEE) was intro-duced by A.de Quervain about 100 years ago to account for the observed tendency for temperature-related parameters such as tree line and snowline to occur at higher elevations in the central Alps than on their outer margins.It also has been widely observed in other ar-eas of the world,but there have not been significant,let alone quantitative,researches on this phenomenon.Especially,it has been usually completely neglected in developing fitting mod-els of timberline elevation,with only longitude or latitude considered as impacting factors.This paper tries to quantify the contribution of MEE to timberline elevation.Considering that the more extensive the land mass and especially the higher the mountain base in the interior of land mass,the greater the mass elevation effect,this paper takes mountain base elevation(MBE) as the magnitude of MEE.We collect 157 data points of timberline elevation,and use their latitude,longitude and MBE as independent variables to build a multiple linear regres-sion equation for timberline elevation in the southeastern Eurasian continent.The results turn out that the contribution of latitude,longitude and MBE to timberline altitude reach 25.11%,29.43%,and 45.46%,respectively.North of northern latitude 32°,the three factors’ contribu-tion amount to 48.50%,24.04%,and 27.46%,respectively;to the south,their contribution is 13.01%,48.33%,and 38.66%,respectively.This means that MBE,serving as a proxy indi-cator of MEE,is a significant factor determining the elevation of alpine timberline.Compared with other factors,it is more stable and independent in affecting timberline elevation.Of course,the magnitude of the actual MEE is certainly determined by other factors,including mountain area and height,the distance to the edge of a land mass,the structures of the mountains nearby.These factors need to be included in the study of MEE quantification in the future.This paper could help build up a high-accuracy and multi-scale elevation model for alpine timberline and even other altitudinal belts.     

2000–2010年中国不同地区人口密度变化及其影响因素分析(英文)

Studying the change in population distribution and density can provide important basis for regional development and planning. The spatial patterns and driving factors of the change in population density in China were not clear yet. Therefore, using the population census data in 2000 and 2010, this study firstly analyzed the change of population density in China and divided the change in all 2353 counties into 4 types, consisting of rapid increase, slow increase, slow decrease and rapid decrease. Subsequently, based on the partial least square(PLS) regression method, we recognized the significant factors(among 11 natural and social-economic factors) impacting population density change for the whole country and counties with different types of population change. The results showed that:(1) compared to the population density in 2000, in 2010, the population density in most of the counties(over 60%) increased by 21 persons per km2 on average, while the population density in other counties decreased by 13 persons per km2. Of all the 2353 counties, 860 and 589 counties respectively showed rapid and slow increase in population density, while 458 and 446 counties showed slow and rapid decrease in population density, respectively.(2) Among the 11 factors, social-economic factors impacted population density change more significantly than natural factors. The higher economic development level, better medical condition and stronger communication capability were the main pull factors of population increase. The dense population density was the main push factor of population decrease. These conclusions clarified the spatial pattern of population change and its influencing factors in China over the past 10 years and could provide helpful reference for the future population planning.     

居民对缓解人与野生动物冲突救济金的态度:尼泊尔Shivapuri-Nagarjun国家公园的案例研究（英文）

本研究旨在评估Shivapuri-Nagarjun国家公园（SNNP）人与动物冲突事件较多的10个缓冲区居民组（BZUG）的三个不同社区的居民对救济基金计划的态度。通过对家庭的半结构化问卷调查,研究了居民态度的差异及其社会经济因素的影响,如年龄、教育、经济状况、作物损害的数量对现行救济计划的满意度的影响。研究共调查了162个住户,获得有效调查问卷153份,占研究区377个住户总数的40.5%,采用非随机抽样方法进行了调查。居民对救济计划的态度分为三个级别(积极、消极或中性）（卡方检验用于确定居民的态度和救济计划是否具有依赖性）。本研究中卡方被用来确定不同社会经济因素的依赖性以及人们对救济计划的态度。结果显示,56%的受访者对救济计划不满意（持消极态度）,26%持中立态度,只有18%持积极态度（满意）。对研究区平均101美元的作物损失,仅提供了41.93美元的救济金。同样,对每只124美元的牲畜（山羊）损失救济金额只有73美元。由于补偿款不足和支付延迟,救济基金计划未能使居民的满意度发生变化。因此,建议定期修订救济准则,以解决救济款不足和延迟的问题。此外,还需要进一步研究野生动物损害救济...     

三江源地区气候变化及其对径流的驱动分析(英文)

Based on the precipitation and temperature data of the 12 meteorological stations in the "Three-River Headwaters" region and the observed runoff data of Zhimenda in the headwater sub-region of the Yangtze River, Tangnaihai in the headwater sub-region of the Yellow River and Changdu in the headwater sub-region of the Lancang River during the period 1965-2004, this paper analyses the trends of precipitation, temperature, runoff depth and carries out significance tests by means of Mann-Kendall-Sneyers sequential trend test. Makkink model is applied to calculate the potential evaporation. The runoff model driven by precipitation and potential evaporation is developed and the influence on runoff by climate change is simulated under different scenarios. Results show that during the period 1965-2004 the temperature of the "Three-River Headwaters" region is increasing, the runoff of the three hydrological stations is decreasing and both of them had abrupt changes in 1994, while no significant trend changes happen to the precipitation. The runoff model suggests that the precipitation has a positive effect on the runoff depth, while the potential evaporation plays a negative role. The influence of the potential evaporation on the runoff depth of the Lancang River is found to be the significant in the three rivers; and that of the Yellow River is the least. The result of the scenarios analysis indicates that although the precipitation and the potential evaporation have positive and negative effects on runoff relatively, fluctuated characteristics of individual effect on the runoff depth in specific situations are represented.     

城市群地区创业风险投资的时空分异规律及影响因素分析（英文）

Under China's innovation-driven development strategy, venture capital has become an important driving force in urban agglomeration integration and collaborative innovation. This paper uses social network analysis to analyze spatiotemporal differences of venture capital in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration for the period 2005–2015. A gravity model and panel data regression model are used to reveal the influencing factors on spatiotemporal differences in venture capital in the region. This study finds that there is a certain cyclical fluctuation and uneven differentiation in the venture capital network in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in terms of total investment, and that the three centers of venture capital(Beijing, Shijiazhuang and Tangshan) have a stimulatory effect on surrounding cities; flows of venture capital between cities display certain networking rules, but they are slow to develop and strongly centripetal; there is a strong positive correlation between levels of information infrastructure development and economic development and venture capital investment; and places with relatively underdeveloped financial environments and service industries are less able to apply the fruits of innovation and entrepreneurship and to attract funds. This study can act as a reference for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in building a world-class super urban agglomeration with the best innovation capabilities in China.     

赣江流域森林生态系统服务空间格局及其影响因素（英文）

森林是陆地生态系统的重要组分,为人类社会提供着多种多样的服务产品。明确不同类型森林生态系统服务的空间特征和驱动机制对优化森林资源管理和提升服务综合效益具有重要意义。基于InVEST模型、CASA模型和GIS技术对赣江流域森林生态系统固碳、蓄积量、水源供给和土壤保持4种服务进行了价值评估和空间制图,并分析了各类自然和社会-经济因子梯度变化与生态系统服务生产之间的联系。结果表明:赣江流域4种森林生态系统服务具有空间异质性。赣江流域周边山地和高丘区域固碳和蓄积量服务较高,林型以阔叶林和竹林为主;水源供给服务较高的区域则为赣江流域东北部,林型以松林和杉木林为主;土壤保持服务空间分布较离散,赣江流域东北部区域略高于西南部区域。生态系统服务是自然过程和人类活动共同作用的结果:随海拔或坡度增加,人类活动干扰减少,森林固碳和蓄积量服务增加,但水源供给和土壤保持服务减小;随区域人均GDP增加或总人口减少,森林固碳和蓄积量服务表现出增加趋势。未来还需进一步评估各类自然和社会-经济因子对不同类型生态系统服务的限制作用和格局影响,以更好地应对区域生态问题。