中国干旱半干旱地区草地植被碳存量动态变化及其对气候和地形的响应（英文）

草地生态系统在干旱、半干旱地区的生态稳定和陆地生态系统碳循环中扮演着重要的作用。但是,有关干旱、半干旱地区草地植被碳存量动态变化及其对气候和地形因素的响应研究却很少。本研究利用2001–2012年的气象数据、NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index)数据及改进型CASA(Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach)模型模拟估算草地植被碳存量时空动态变化及其对气候和地形因素的响应。研究结果表明:(1)甘肃省草地植被碳存量为4.4×1014 gC,年增长率为9.8×1011 gC(P0.05),草地植被碳密度为136.5 gC m~(–2)。(2)草地植被碳密度和碳存量表现出较强的时空变化特征,基本与温度、降水量和太阳辐射的时空变化保持一致,且在高程2500–3500 m、坡度30°和坡向朝东的时候达到最大值。(3)气象要素(温度、降水量和太阳辐射)对5种草地类型(沙漠和盐碱草地、典型草原、高寒草地、灌草丛和林下草地)植被碳密度的影响主要取决于在空间尺度上草地植被所能获取的水分和热量。研究结果不仅能够为合理解释草地植被碳存量动态变化的时空异质性提供新的证据,同时也能为我国干旱、半干旱地区草地农业管理提供理论和实践基础。     

用卡尔曼滤波算法预测埃塞俄比亚咖啡价格（英文）

埃塞俄比亚咖啡价格波动很大,因此对国家经济发展的影响不容小视,对咖啡价格进行预测具有理论和实践意义。为了分析咖啡价格波动,我们采用来自埃塞俄比亚商品交易所(ECX)记录的2008年6月25日至2017年1月5日期间咖啡日收盘价数据。在这里,咖啡价格的性质是非平稳的,我们在单个线性状态空间模型上应用卡尔曼滤波算法来预测咖啡价格的最优值,主要通过使用均方根误差(RMSE)来评估用于预测咖啡价格的算法的性能。基于线性状态空间模型和卡尔曼滤波算法,均方根误差(RMSE)为0.000016375,说明该算法性能良好,研究结果可靠。     

蒙古中部地区植被覆盖衰退问题案例研究（英文）

本文选择蒙古中部地区的两个模型多边形对植被多样性进行调查研究。它们都位于干旱、半干旱少雨地区。基于Landsat TM影像,本文研究了多边形区域的NDVI随时间变化的多时相NDVI值制图,得到所选择的具备不同值NDVI区域的全尺度景观特征。这一特征在对耐旱环境组的植被分析中得到了证实。该过程中将近整个实验多边形区域的植被偏离得到了追踪。NDVI的时间分布分析呈现出数值的降低,这说明了在戈壁,稀疏植被存在耐旱趋势。在半干旱气候区域中偏离植被趋势与牧草地的重载负直接相关。     

埃塞俄比亚低海拔区灌丛化草地动态变化（英文）

灌丛化草地广泛分布于干旱半干旱区,严重影响当地畜牧业发展,尤其是以牧业为主要生活来源的非洲国家。本文基于埃塞俄比亚低海拔区1986–2016年的遥感影像,通过监督分类和决策树分类方法,运用单一土地变化动态度和土地利用变化重要性指数(Ci),研究了埃塞俄比亚低海拔区灌丛化草地30年不同程度灌丛化草地动态变化特征,研究结果可为揭示低海拔区灌丛化草地发展过程及草地可持续发展提供基础数据。结果表明:(1)灌丛化草地面积整体呈上升趋势,在2003年达最大,为3742.49 km~2,占研究区总面积的68.97%,2003年至2016年有小幅下降;(2)其中,重度灌丛化草地面积最大,占总面积的28.36%–49.10%,其次是占比9.77%–16.68%的中度灌丛化草地和占比5.52%–7.57%的轻度灌丛化草地;(3)30年间灌丛化草地年均扩张速度为0.74%,1995–2003年间,年均扩张速度最大,为2.16%;(4)林地和草地两种土地利用类型向灌丛化草地转化是低海拔区土地利用变化的主要类型,且由于对灌丛化草地的治理,灌丛化草地类型会转化成草地类型。     

从中国视角看埃塞俄比亚农业生产与粮食安全（英文）

粮食安全和农业可持续发展一直是科学研究的热点议题,特别是在2016年受饥饿影响的人口数量出现增长之后。由自然灾害和战争等因素引起的饥饿现象在埃塞俄比亚反复发生并且伴随的持续时间很长,这一直困扰着埃塞俄比亚的发展。而不同于埃塞俄比亚,虽然在上个世纪同样面临着饥饿带来的严峻挑战,中国却成功地在较短时间实现了国家粮食的自给自足。在两个国家不同的环境与社会政治的背景下,通过两个国家异同的对比为埃塞俄比亚的发展与粮食自给自足的早日实现提供重要的教训和见解。介绍中国与埃塞俄比亚向粮食安全的目标迈进的历程,量化两国农业生产的差距所在。我们发现埃塞俄比亚的粮食生产受着干旱、土地退化、气候变化、农业生产技术落后以及贫穷的严重阻碍。根据以上面临的挑战,总结了中国在面临这些问题时所采取的相应的响应措施,并结合埃塞俄比亚当前国内的状况来指出实现粮食自给自足的解决方案。     

80年来埃塞俄比亚北部高原土地利用/覆被变化（英文）

Despite many studies on land degradation in the Highlands of Northern Ethiopia, quantitative information regarding long-term changes in land use/cover(LUC) is rare. Hence, this study aims to investigate the LUC changes in the Geba catchment(5142 km2), Northern Ethiopia, over 80 years(1935–2014). Aerial photographs(APs) of the 1930 s and Google Earth(GE) images(2014) were used. The point-count technique was utilized by overlaying a grid on APs and GE images. The occurrence of cropland, forest, grassland, shrubland, bare land, built-up areas and water body was counted to compute their fractions. A multivariate adaptive regression spline was applied to identify the explanatory factors of LUC and to create fractional maps of LUC. The results indicate significant changes of most types, except for forest and cropland. In the 1930 s, shrubland(48%) was dominant, followed by cropland(39%). The fraction of cropland in 2014(42%) remained approximately the same as in the 1930 s, while shrubland significantly dropped to 37%. Forests shrank further from a meagre 6.3% in the 1930 s to 2.3% in 2014. High overall accuracies(93% and 83%) and strong Kappa coefficients(89% and 72%) for point counts and fractional maps respectively indicate the validity of the techniques used for LUC mapping.     

我国北方半干旱牧区天然打草场退化分级（英文）

半干旱牧区天然打草场是北方牧区产量最高的草场,但由于长期连续打草,没有休闲机会,目前天然打草场普遍存在严重的退化,极大限制了天然打草场牧草的产量和质量,同时,我国天然打草场退化的空间分布及其退化程度的本底数据一直不清,主要原因之一与没有形成全国统一的、规范的评价标准有关。基于上述问题,本文采用层次分析法针对北方(温性草甸草原、温性草原、山地草甸、低地草甸为主)的草原区开展天然打草场退化评价指标的筛选与精度验证,研究明确了能够快速反映天然打草场退化的7项指标(平均高度、地上生物量、盖度、中型禾草比例、凋落物量、退化指示植物比例及裸斑、盐碱斑占地面比例),采用5级级差法划定了各项指标的阈值范围,即平均高度25–80 cm,地上生物量480–2500 kg ha~(-1),盖度26%–98%,中型禾草比例10%–50%,凋落物量100–400kg ha~(-1),退化指示植物比例0–11%,裸斑、盐碱斑占地面比例0–14%。研究结果有效解决了天然打草场退化分级评价的技术瓶颈,为天然打草场退化的科学评价提供理论依据,也对天然打草场可持续利用及畜牧业生产提供了重要技术支撑。     

中国地区植被对温度变化趋势的响应（英文）

Though many studies have focused on the causes of shifts in trend of temperature, whether the response of vegetation growth to temperature has changed is still not very clear. In this study, we analyzed the spatial features of the trend changes of temperature during the growing season and the response of vegetation growth in China based on observed climatic data and the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) from 1984 to 2011. An obvious warming to cooling shift during growing season from the period 1984–1997 to the period 1998–2011 was identified in the northern and northeastern regions of China, whereas a totally converse shift was observed in the southern and western regions, suggesting large spatial heterogeneity of changes of the trend of growing season temperature throughout China. China as a whole, a significant positive relationship between vegetation growth and temperature during 1984 to 1997 has been greatly weakened during 1998–2011. This change of response of vegetation growth to temperature has also been confirmed by Granger causality test. On regional scales, obvious shifts in relationship between vegetation growth and temperature were identified in temperate desert region and rainforest region. Furthermore, by comprehensively analyzing of the relationship between NDVI and climate variables, an overall reduction of impacts of climate factors on vegetation growth was identified over China during recent years, indicating enhanced influences from human associated activities.     

贵州普定喀斯特植被恢复进程研究（英文）

喀斯特地区由于其环境的特殊性,人为干扰后植被的恢复有很多不确定性。在普定进行标准木解析和年轮调查,对喀斯特地区植被恢复进程进行研究。结果表明,喀斯特植被在恢复过程中,乔木层表现为高度增加、地径增粗,高度、地径的增长分别呈现对数、乘幂曲线,乔木发育时间连续,生长位置随机分布;而在繁殖体大量存在的情况下,植被可以直接由草灌阶段恢复发育形成次生乔林,且恢复时间明显缩短。     

三江源植被净初级生产力估算研究进展（英文）

The Three-River Headwater Region(TRHR), known as the "Water Tower of China", is an important ecological shelter for national security interests and regional sustainable development activities for many downstream regions in China and a number of Southeast Asian countries. The TRHR is a high-elevation, cold environment with a unique, but typical alpine vegetation system. Net primary productivity(NPP) is a key vegetation parameter and ecological indicator that can reflect both natural environmental changes and carbon budget levels. Given the unique geographical environment and strategic location of the TRHR, many scholars have estimated NPP of the TRHR by using different methods; however, these estimates vary greatly for a number of reasons. To date, there is no paper that has reviewed and assessed NPP estimation studies conducted in the TRHR. Therefore, in this paper, we(1) summarized the related methods and results of NPP estimation in the TRHR in a systematic review of previous research;(2) discussed the suitability of existing methods for estimating NPP in the TRHR and highlighted the most significant challenges; and(3) assessed the estimated NPP results. Finally, developmental directions of NPP estimation in the TRHR were prospected.     

半干旱地区社会—生态系统脆弱性演化与模拟——以中国榆林市为例（英文）

Taking the semi-arid area of Yulin City as an example, this study improves the vulnerability assessment methods and techniques at the county scale using the VSD(Vulnerability Scoping Diagram) assessment framework, integrates the VSD framework and the SERV(Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability) model, and decomposes the system vulnerability into three dimensions, i.e., exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Firstly, with the full understanding of the background and exposure risk source of the research area, the vulnerability indexes were screened by the SERV model, and the index system was constructed to assess the characteristics of the local eco-environment. Secondly, with the aid of RS and GIS, this study measured the spatial differentiation and evolution of the social-ecological systems in Yulin City during 2000–2015 and explored intrinsic reasons for the spatial-temporal evolution of vulnerability. The results are as follows:(1) The spatial pattern of Yulin City's SESs vulnerability is "high in northwest and southeast and low along the Great Wall". Although the degree of system vulnerability decreased significantly during the study period and the system development trend improved, there is a sharp spatial difference between the system vulnerability and exposure risk.(2) The evolution of system vulnerability is influenced by the risk factors of exposure, and the regional vulnerability and the spatial heterogeneity of exposure risk are affected by the social sensitivity, economic adaptive capacity and other factors. Finally, according to the uncertainty of decision makers, the future scenarios of regional vulnerability are simulated under different decision risks by taking advantage of the OWA multi-criteria algorithm, and the vulnerability of the regional system under different development directions was predicted based on the decision makers' rational risk interval.     

贝加尔地区萨彦山东部Jom-Bolok火山谷湖泊古环境研究（英文）

This article describes the lake basins of the Jom-Bolok volcanic region in the East Sayan(the largest manifestation of the Holocene eruptions in Central Asia). The geomorphological position, origins, aspects of the structure and development are reviewed considering its sedimentary filling. The limnic morphogenesis here develops under the conditions of contrasting relief, high energy of neotectonic and exogenous processes. We established that Lake Khara-Nur, formed as a result of lava-damming of the Jom-Bolok river valley, emerged in its present form approximately 6500 years ago. A complex record on the environment and climatic changes, acquired from its sediments, made it possible to determine for the first time in this region the long-term trends in the development of the Middle and Late Holocene mountain geosystems and also the distinction of several paleogeographic stages of the formation of the natural environment. An average geochemical record resolution for the bottom sediments of the lake was made uniquely for the East Siberian lake records and is equal to 35 years, while the palynological record approximates 110 years.     

西太平洋副热带高压与中国植被的关系（英文）

There is a lack of simple ways to predict the vegetation responses to the East Asian Monsoon(EAM) variability in China due to the complexity of the monsoon system. In this study, we found the variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH), which is one of the major components of the EAM, has a profound influence on the vegetation growth in China. When the WPSH is located more to the west of its climate average, the eastern and northwestern parts experience increased yearly-averaged normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) and gross primary productivity(GPP) by 0.3%–2.2%, and 0.2%–2.2%, respectively. In contrast, when the WPSH is located more to the east of its climate average, the above areas experience decreased yearly-averaged NDVI and GPP by 0.4% to 1.6%, and 1.3% to 4.5%, respectively. The WPSH serves as a major circulation index to predict the response of vegetation to monsoon.     

放牧对内蒙古草原植被群落特征的影响（英文）

近年来,畜牧业的持续增长导致了内蒙古草原生态系统的严重退化。以往的放牧实验表明,放牧对全球植被类型存在着广泛的影响,但目前仍然缺乏研究来识别区域特定植被群落对放牧的响应。本文对内蒙古不同类型草地在不同放牧强度和放牧时长下的植被盖度(VC)、植被密度(PD)、总生物量(TB)、地上生物量(AGB)、地下生物量(UGB)和Shannon-Weaver指数(SI)进行了Meta分析。结果表明,放牧显著降低了VC、TB、AGB、UGB和PD值。放牧对内蒙古草原生物量产生的负面影响高于全球而低于全国平均水平。在中等放牧强度和时长条件下,内蒙古草甸草原TB值补偿性生长增加了40%。荒漠草原和草甸草原的SI与放牧强度呈负相关。放牧期间AGB、PD和SI的变化百分比与试验年的平均气温呈二次方关系。随着试验年年平均降水量的增加,放牧对UGB和SI的负面影响先减小后增大,放牧对VC的负面影响呈三次方关系。     

哈萨克斯坦1982–2015年植被时空变化（英文）

归一化植被指数(NDVI)作为表征植被生长状况的关键性指标,能够有效的提供植被生长状况的信息。本研究基于1982–2015年哈萨克斯坦时间序列的GIMMS/NDVI数据,分析植被)生长的空间格局及变化趋势,研究结果表明:哈萨克斯坦自北向南分布着农田、草地、灌丛这三类主要的植被类型,呈明晰的地带性分布特征;植被指数由北到南逐渐降低,农田、草地和灌丛三类主要植被类型的NDVI均值水平依次为农田草地灌丛;1982–2015年间,NDVI呈现出先增长(1982–1992年)、再降低(1993–2007年)、然后又增长(2008–2015年)的变化趋势。NDVI显著下降的区域占土地总面积的24.0%,主要分布在西北部的农田与草地交错地带以及南部边缘的农田,草地退化面积占草地总面积的23.5%、农田退化面积占农田总面积的48.4%、灌丛退化面积占灌丛总面积的13.7%,植被改善的区域分布在中东部的农田以及农田与草地的交错带,显著提升的面积占土地总面积的11.8%。     

埃塞俄比亚极端气候时空特征及其对作物产量的潜在影响（英文）

在全球范围内极端气候事件呈现出增加的时空态势,对人类社会和自然生态系统产生严重影响。本研究以埃塞俄比亚为例,分析了1956年至2016年的极端温度和降水,并评估了极端气候对埃塞俄比亚作物产量的潜在影响。研究结果表明极端温度指数在低温事件中呈现下降趋势,但在极端高温事件中呈现出显着上升趋势,且每年暖夜日数(warm nights)的频率比冷昼日数(cold days)增加的程度更大。年总降水量以46 mm/decade的速度显着下降,干旱天数以5.6 d/decade的速度持续增加,降水天数则以1.4 d/decade的速度下降。此外,年降水量与作物产量显著相关,并且极端降水比极端温度对作物产量的年度变化影响更大。结果表明在没有适当气候应对措施的埃塞俄比亚地区,极端的气候变化已经对农作物产量产生了显着的不利影响。     

西北干旱区水资源形成、转化与水安全研究（英文）

Climate change and water resource issues are global problems of common concern to the international community, and they are major bottlenecks affecting the eco-environment and sustainable socio-economic development in the arid region of Northwest China. On the basis of results from previous studies, this paper points out that the unique landscape of Northwest China increases the complexity and uncertainty of the climate system. This paper analyzes the key constraints on socio-economic development and ecological security in the region, discusses the impact of climate change on water resources in Northwest China, identifies common themes and the main problems present in research on climate change and water resources in the arid northwest region, and finally, based on the importance and urgency of conducting research on the region's water resources, proposes scientific problems that need to be addressed: first, the impact of climate change on the formation, conversion and future trends of water resources in the region; second, bidirectional coupling of high-resolution regional climate models and water cycle models of arid region land surface patterns; third, the impact of climate change and human activities on water resources of the arid northwest region. Through consideration and discussion of the above, this paper seeks to further clarify specific areas of research on pressing issues related to climate change and water resources in Northwest China, so as to establish a solid scientific basis for significantly enhancing our ability to respond to climate change and water shortages.     

中国半干旱草原施氮梯度下的土壤激发效应（英文）

为了探究施氮对土壤有机质(SOM)的激发效应,本研究在施氮梯度样地(0、4和16 g N m^–2 yr^–1)上进行了¹³C标记葡萄糖的原位添加实验,并对土壤CO_2排放量和磷脂脂肪酸(PLFA)含量进行了测定。研究发现施氮降低了土壤CO_2排放、土壤PLFA含量以及土壤真菌细菌比。在0 g N m^–2 yr^–1样地上葡萄糖添加导致的正向激发效应最强,同时4 g N m^–2 yr^–1样地释放的葡萄糖来源的碳最多。因此,施氮减少了土壤中SOM转化产生的CO_2,微生物碳的来源由SOM转变为添加的易分解碳。本研究采样早期土壤微生物生物量和群落结构稳定,表明该草原存在"表观激发效应",因此未来研究应着重对微生物功能的多样性进行探讨。     

基于潜在植被的拉市海流域生态退化研究（英文）

生态退化是当前世界共同面临的问题,深刻影响着人类的可持续发展。本文以拉市海流域为研究案例,利用Logistic逐步回归模型模拟该区域的潜在植被,并将其作为区域生态退化的参考系统,进而分析该区域的实际退化程度及其分布特征。结果表明：（1）拉市海流域强人类干扰集中在拉市海坝子内,影响因子主要是道路、居民点和耕地;（2）除湖泊外,拉市海存在8种潜在植被类型,其中常绿针叶林为绝对优势群落,其他7种分别是温性草甸、草丛、滩地、常绿阔叶灌木林、落叶阔叶灌木林、温性草原和高寒草原;（3）高程和土壤平均磷含量对多种植被的潜在分布影响显著,不同的植被类型,对于环境因子具有不同的敏感性;（4）整体上,流域生态退化程度较轻,其中未退化区域占比近半数,轻度退化面积约占1/4,中度退化区集中分布在强人类干扰区,占18.64%;重度退化较少发生,面积仅占全流域面积的3.17%。     

基于温度的天气衍生品指数定价:以埃塞俄比亚巴赫达尔为例（英文）

本文提出了一个基于温度的导数来计算温度指数的日平均温度随机模型,该模型提出了一个季节性均值及其波动率的计算方法,使用均值回归的Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程来刻画日平均温度的变化。本文还采用连续的三阶自回归过程来模拟去除趋势和季节性影响后的温度演变过程,模型的模拟结果与从埃塞俄比亚国家气象厅获得的2005年1月1日至2015年12月31日11年间埃塞俄比亚Bahir Dar记录的数据非常吻合。验证后的近似公式很容易根据热日和冷日(heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD))等典型温度指数推导期货价格,也给出了数值例子来说明该方法的准确性。结果表明,本文提出的模型比其他模型能更好地预测CDD指数。