Simulations of water resource environmental changes in China during the last 20 000 years by a regional climate model

We utilize a regional climate model with detailed land surface processes (RegCM2) to simulate East Asian monsoon climates at 0 ka, 6 ka and 21 ka BP, and evaluate the changes in hydrology process, including vapor transportation, precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff in the eastern and western China during these periods. Results indicate that the Tibetan Plateau climate presents a wet–cold status during the LGM while it exhibits a wet–warm climate at 6 ka BP. The LGM wetter climate over the Tibetan Plateau mainly results from the increased vapor inflow through its south boundary, while the increase in the vapor import over the Tibetan Plateau at 6 ka BP mostly sources from its west boundary. The increase in the LGM runoff over the Tibetan Plateau is mainly caused by the decrease in evapotranspiration, while the increase in runoff at the 6 ka BP mainly by the enhanced precipitation. Eastern China (including southern China) presents a dry status during the LGM, which precipitation and runoff decreases significantly due largely to weakened Asian summer monsoon that results in the decreased vapor inflow through the south boundary of eastern China. The variation pattern in the hydrological cycle in eastern China is contrary to that in western China during the LGM. The increase in precipitation and runoff at 6 ka BP in eastern China is tightly related to the strong Asian summer monsoon that leads to increased vapor import through the south boundary. Long term decrease trend in precipitation and runoff in northern China since the last 20 000 years may be attributed to the steady increase in vapor export through the east boundary as a result of the changes of East Asian monsoon and the adjustments of local atmospheric circulations in this area.     

Cyclone activity associated with the interannual seesaw oscillation of summer precipitation over northern Eurasia

This study describes surface cyclone activity associated with the interannual variability in summer precipitation in northern Eurasia and how that activity may be connected to other climate signals. An east–west seesaw oscillation of precipitation across Siberia is the primary mode of interannual variability in the summer hydrological cycle over northern Eurasia. This variation occurs at sub-decadal timescales of about 6–8 years. The spatial characteristics of cyclone frequency and cyclone tracks at the two poles in variability [eastern Siberia (ES)-wet–western Siberia (WS)-dry and WS-wet–ES-dry] were examined, and temporal variability in regional cyclone frequency was compared to basin-scale precipitation variability. The analysis period was from 1973 to 2002, when the precipitation variability signal was predominant.Cyclone behavior suggested that the regions of enhanced (reduced) cyclone activity coincided with regions of increased (decreased) precipitation in each phase of the oscillation. Such behavior reflects the zonal displacement of the track of frequent storm activity that accompanies the changes in precipitation. Comparisons of the temporal characteristics confirmed the importance of regional cyclone frequency on precipitation variability in both eastern and western Siberia. Low-frequency changes in regional cyclone activity may produce the precipitation oscillation. We used various climate signals to explore connections between regional precipitation and cyclone activity in Siberia. Results suggest that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from the preceding winter is significantly and negatively correlated with summer surface cyclone frequency and precipitation over western Siberia. Enhanced (reduced) summer cyclone activity and precipitation in western Siberia follows low- (high-) winter NAO. However, the physical mechanisms linking summer cyclone activity and precipitation over western Siberia with the preceding climate conditions associated with the winter NAO remain unclear.     

Simulations of the impact of orbital forcing and ocean on the Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene

The importance of orbital forcing and ocean impact on the Asian summer monsoon in the Holocene is investigated by comparing simulations with a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM) and with the atmospheric component of this model (FSSTAM) forced with prescribed modern sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The results show: (1) the ocean amplifies the orbitally-induced increase in African monsoon precipitation, makes somewhat increase in southern India and damps the increase over the southeastern China. (2) The ocean could change the spatial distribution and local intensity of the orbitally-induced latitudinal atmospheric oscillation over the southeastern China and the subtropical western Pacific Ocean. (3) The orbital forcing mostly enhances the Asian summer precipitation in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. However, the ocean reduces the orbitally-induced summer precipitation and postpones the time of summer monsoon onset over the Asian monsoon region. (4) The orbital forcing considerably enhances the intensity of upper divergence, which is amplified by ocean further, over the eastern hemisphere. But the divergence is weaker in the FOAM simulations than in the FSSTAM simulations when the orbital forcing is fixed. (5) The orbital forcing can enhance the amplitude of precipitation variability over the subtropical Africa, the southeastern China and northwestern China, inversely, reduce it over central India and North China in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. The ocean obviously reduces the amplitude of precipitation variability over most of the Asian monsoon regions in the fixed orbital forcing simulations. (6) The areas characterized by increased summer precipitation in the long-term mean are mostly characterized by increased amplitude of short-term variability, whereas regions characterized by decreased precipitation are primarily characterized by decreased amplitude of short-term variability. However, the influences of orbital forcing or dynamical ocean on regional climate depend on the model.     

A comparison of simulated monsoon circulations and snow accumulation in Asia during the mid-Holocene and at the Last Glacial Maximum

Tropical climatology through the last glacial cycle is believed to have ranged from colder, windier conditions at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to relatively warm, stable conditions during the Holocene. Changes in strength of the South Asian monsoon have previously been determined from a variety of proxy data and have been attributed primarily to changes in radiative forcing, although tropical sea surface temperature (SST) is known to play a fundamental role in regulating monsoon strength and is also believed to have changed throughout the late Quaternary.In this study, the monsoons simulated in a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (GCM) configured for the mid-Holocene (6000 years B.P.) and for the LGM (21,000 years B.P.) are compared. The colder and windier conditions simulated for the LGM produced a summer monsoon whose westerly winds are stronger and whose precipitation and snowfall into the eastern Himalaya are increased, with drier conditions over the rest of the Indian subcontinent and over most of southwest Asia.The mid-Holocene monsoon circulation is stronger than today, and annual mean snow accumulation is increased over the northwestern Himalaya. These changes in precipitation and snow accumulation are analyzed in terms of the altered atmospheric circulations, which are in turn driven by changes in radiative forcing, sea surface temperatures, and sea surface height. All of these factors are therefore demonstrated to be important in governing the spatial distribution of snow and ice deposition in the Himalaya during the late Quaternary, and are likely to have contributed to the observed asynchroneity of Himalayan glaciation and Northern Hemisphere ice sheet volume.     

A simulation study on the eco-environmental effects of 3N Shelterbelt in North China

Based on the Global Land Cover Characteristics Database (GLCCD) generated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), a new land cover dataset within a domain of 14.1–49.6°N, 84.6–140.5°E is extracted. This dataset is used to identify the achievements of constructing 3N (Northeast, North and Northwest of China) Shelterbelt in North China and to update the lower boundary conditions of the mesoscale model (MM5), a widely used mesoscale meteorological model. The model is then used to simulate the regional climate effects of the 3N Shelterbelt, the largest forestation engineering in the world. The simulation shows that the construction of the 3N Shelterbelt and the corresponding land use and land cover (LULC) variations in China have changed the roughness length in the cited model domain significantly. Consequently, the surface layer wind speed, air temperature, humidity, and the precipitation are all changed. As compared with the control run without the 3N Shelterbelt, the regional climate in North China is improved shown by the decreased wind speed, increased air humidity and precipitation. The paper also stresses that, in meteorological or climatic simulations, the lower boundary conditions related to the land cover has to be updated frequently by the satellite observed database since the LULC vary fast due to the increasing world population and human activities, this is especially true in developing countries like China.     

Continental European Eemian and early Würmian climate evolution: comparing signals using different quantitative reconstruction approaches based on pollen

Analyses of Eemian climate dynamics based on different reconstruction methods were conducted for several pollen sequences in the northern alpine foreland. The modern analogue and mutual climate sphere techniques used, which are briefly presented, complement one another with respect to comparable results. The reconstructions reveal the occurrence of at least two similar thermal periods, representing temperate oceanic conditions warmer and with a higher humidity than today. Intense changes of climate processes become obvious with a shift of winter temperatures of about 15 °C from the late Rissian to the first thermal optimum of the Eemian. The transition shows a pattern of summer temperatures and precipitation increasing more rapidly than winter temperatures. With the first optimum during the Pinus–Quercetum mixtum–Corylus phase (PQC) at an early stage of the Eemian and a second optimum period at a later stage, which is characterised by widespread Carpinus, climate gradients across the study area were less intense than today. Average winter temperatures vary between −1.9 and 0.4 °C (present-day −3.6 to 1.4 °C), summer temperatures between 17.8 and 19.6 °C (present-day 14 to 18.9 °C). The timberline expanded about 350 m when compared to the present-day limit represented by Pinus mugo. Whereas the maximum of temperature parameters is related to the first optimum, precipitation above 1100 mm is higher during the second warm period concomitant to somewhat reduced temperatures. Intermediate, smaller climate oscillations and a cooling becomes obvious, which admittedly represent moderate deterioration but not extreme chills. During the boreal semicontinental Eemian Pinus–Picea–Abies phase, another less distinct fluctuation occurs, initiating the oscillating shift from temperate to cold conditions.     

Validation of a multidecadal RCM hindcast over East Asia

The precipitation and low-level air temperature in East Asia from a regional climate model (RCM) hindcast for the 22-year period 1979–2000 is evaluated against observational data in preparation for the model use in regional climate change research. Emphasis of the evaluation is placed on the RCM capability in capturing the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation and low-level temperature, especially in conjunction with important climatological events such as, ENSO and East Asian monsoon, at three spatial scales of continental, subcontinental, and river basins.Spatial anomaly correlation time series of geopotential height and temperature show that the simulated upper-air fields remain consistent with the driving large-scale fields, NCEP Reanalysis 2 (R2), throughout the period. The simulated seasonal shifts in 850 hPa winds also agree well with R2 over eastern China and the western Pacific Ocean although the magnitudes of the shifts are overestimated, especially over the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau and in northern Manchuria. The simulated precipitation climatology agrees reasonably with that from two analysis datasets based on station- and remote-sensing data. Outstanding characteristics of precipitation including the location of the main rainband, climatological means, and the spatiotemporal variability in association with East Asian Monsoon, ENSO, and extreme events, are well represented in the hindcast. The most notable bias in the simulated precipitation is an overestimation of winter rainfall in southwestern coast of China, near the border with Vietnam. The simulation overestimates the interannual variability of seasonal precipitation especially in southern China, however, the corresponding coefficients of variation agree reasonably with observations except in very dry regions. This suggests that climate sensitivity of scaled precipitation can be useful for projecting climate change signals. The simulated low-level temperature climatology agrees reasonably with observational data as well. The most noticeable biases in the simulated low-level temperature are the warm (cold) biases in southern Siberia (northeastern China) during winter (summer) and the systematic underestimation of low-level temperature in the Tibetan Plateau for all seasons. The daily maximum temperature is underestimated for all seasons by 2−3 K with the largest biases in spring and fall except in the northwestern Mongolia region where it has been overestimated during winter. The daily minimum temperature biases ranges from 0.3 K in spring to 2 K in winter, and are much smaller than those in daily maximum temperature. The evaluation of the multidecadal hindcast shows that model errors mostly confined in the region near the lateral boundaries of the model domain with only minor biases in eastern China. This allows us to be cautiously optimistic about the RCM usefulness for studies of precipitation and low-level temperature changes in East Asia induced by increased emissions of greenhouse gases.     

Examining the sensitivity of Earth's climate to the removal of ozone, landmasses and enhanced ocean heat transport in the GENESIS global climate model

This paper examines the cloud radiative forcing and its impacts on the surface climate for global climate model simulations that use reduced ozone concentrations and land fractions as boundary conditions. In one simulation using present-day land continents, ozone concentrations are reduced to zero and compared to the present-day climate simulation. In the second set of simulations under global ocean conditions, the implied poleward transport of heat by the ocean is varied. The removal of ozone causes an increase in longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and the surface. The increase in longwave forcing melts sea-ice and snow at high latitudes leading 10–14°C warmer temperatures and globally a 2°C increase. The global ocean simulations lead to higher cloud fractions than present-day simulation. Without poleward transport of heat by the ocean, surface temperatures cool as a result of higher cloud fractions. Increasing the ocean heat transport by a factor of 3.33 brings about ice-free conditions. An 11°C difference in globally averaged surface air temperatures is found between the enhanced and zero poleward oceanic heat transport simulations. The longwave cloud radiative forcing from high cloud fractions enhance the surface warming in the polar regions during the winter season. Conversely, during the summer season, a high cloud fraction increases the shortwave cloud radiative forcing producing only moderately warm temperatures in the polar regions. High cloud fractions in polar regions during warm periods throughout geologic times may help to explain the reduced equator to pole temperature gradient.     

An investigation of sand–dust storm events and land surface characteristics in China using NOAA NDVI data

Observations from 560 weather stations in China show that sand–dust storms occur most frequently in April in north China. The region consists of Sub-dry Mid Temperate, Dry Mid Temperate, Sub-dry South Temperate and Dry South Temperate Zones and much of the land surface is desert or semi-desert: it is relatively dry with minimal rainfall and a high annual mean temperature. In most regions of China, the annual mean frequency of sand–dust events decreased sharply between 1980 and 1997 and then increased from 1997 to 2000. Statistical analyses demonstrate that the frequency of sand–dust storms correlates highly with wind speed, which in turn is strongly related to land surface features; on the other hand, a significant correlation between storm events and other atmospheric quantities such as precipitation and temperature was not observed. Accordingly, land surface cover characteristics (vegetation, snowfall and soil texture) may play a significant role in determining the occurrence of sand–dust storms in China. Analysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index derived from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Empirical Orthogonal Function show that since 1995 surface vegetation cover in large areas of Northern China has significantly deteriorated. Moreover, a high correlation is shown to exist among the annual occurrence of sand–dust storms, surface vegetation cover and snowfall. This suggests that the deterioration of surface vegetation cover may strongly influence the occurrence of sand–dust storms in China. Soils with coarse and medium textures are found to be more associated with sand–dust storms than other soils.     

Interannual variability of regional climate and its change due to the greenhouse effect

Interannual variability of regional climate was investigated on a seasonal basis. Observations and two global climate model (GCM) simulations were intercompared to identify model biases and climate change signals due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Observed record length varies from 40 to 100 years, while the model output comes from two 100-year equilibrium climate simulations corresponding to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at observed 1990 and projected 2050 levels. The GCM includes an atmosphere based on the NCAR CCM1 with the addition of the radiative effects of CH₄, N₂O and CFCs, a bulk layer land surface and a mixed-layer ocean with thermodynamic sea-ice and fixed meridional oceanic heat transport.Because comparisons of interannual variability are sensitive to the time period chosen, a climate ensemble technique has been developed. This technique provides comparisons between variance ratios of two time series for all possible contiguous sub-periods of a fixed length. The time autocorrelation is thus preserved within each sub-period. The optimal sub-period length was found to be 30 years, based on which robust statistics of the ensemble were obtained to identify substantial differences in interannual variability that are both physically important and statistically significant.Several aspects of observed interannual variability were reproduced by the GCM. These include: global surface air temperature; Arctic sea-ice extent; and regional variability of surface air temperature, sea level pressure and 500 mb height over about one quarter of the observed data domains. Substantial biases, however, exist over broad regions, where strong seasonality and systematic links between variables were identified. For instance, during summer substantially greater model variability was found for both surface air temperature and sea-level pressure over land areas between 20–50°N, while this tendency was confined to 20–30°N in other seasons. When greenhouse gas concentrations increase, atmospheric moisture variability is substantially larger over areas that experience the greatest surface warming. This corresponds to an intensified hydrologic cycle and, hence, regional increases in precipitation variability. Surface air temperature variability increases where hydrologic processes vary greatly or where mean soil moisture is much reduced. In contrast, temperature variability decreases substantially where sea-ice melts completely. These results indicate that regional changes in interannual variability due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are associated with mechanisms that depend on the variable and season.     

Past 100 ky surface salinity-gradient response in the Eastern Arabian Sea to the summer monsoon variation recorded by δO of G. sacculifer

Northward flowing coastal currents along the western margin of India during winter–spring advect low-salinity Bay of Bengal water in to the Eastern Arabian Sea producing a distinct low-salinity tongue, the strength of which is largely governed by the freshwater flux to the bay during summer monsoons. Utilizing the sedimentary records of δ¹⁸O_{G. sacculifer}, we reconstructed the past salinity-gradient within that low-salinity tongue, which serves as a proxy for the variation in freshwater flux to the Bay of Bengal and hence summer monsoon intensity.The north–south contrast in the sea level corrected (residual)-δ¹⁸O_{G. sacculifer} can be interpreted as a measure of surface salinity-contrast between those two locations because the modern sea surface temperature and its past variation in the study region is nearly uniform. The core-top residual-δ¹⁸O_{G. sacculifer} contrast of 0.45‰ between the two cores is assumed to reflect the modern surface salinity difference of 1 psu and serves as a calibration for past variations.The residual-δ¹⁸O_{G. sacculifer} contrast varies between 0.2‰ at 75 ky B.P. (i.e., late-Marine Isotope Stage 5) and 0.7‰ at 20 ky B.P. (i.e., Last Glacial Maximum), suggesting that the overall salinity difference between the northern- and southern-end of the low-salinity tongue has varied between 0.6 and 1.6 psu. Considerably reduced difference during the former period than the modern suggests substantially intensified and northward-extended low-salinity tongue due to intense summer monsoons than today. On the other hand, larger difference (1.6 psu) during the latter period indicates that the low-salinity tongue was significantly weakened or withdrawn due to weaker summer monsoons. Thus, the salinity-gradient in the eastern Arabian Sea low-salinity tongue can be used to understand the past variations in the Indian summer monsoons.     

Late Pleistocene glaciers and climate in the Mediterranean

Evidence for Late Pleistocene glaciers and rock glaciers in the Pindus Mountains, Greece, is used to reconstruct palaeoclimate for this part of the Mediterranean during the last cold stage (Tymphian/ Würmian). Mean annual precipitation was c. 2300 ± 200 mm and the mean summer temperature (June/July/August) was c. 4.9 °C at 2174 m a.s.l., the equilibrium line altitude of the former glaciers, at the last local glacier maximum. The glacier–climate relationship in the northern Pindus Mountains during the local glacier maximum of the Tymphian Stage closely resembled that found today at the equilibrium line altitude of Norwegian glaciers. The local glacier maximum on Mount Tymphi is likely to have preceded both the most severe phase of climate indicated in the pollen record at nearby Ioannina and also the global last glacial maximum. Major stadials, including the most severe phase of the last cold stage, were characterised by cold sea surfaces temperatures, which inhibited atmospheric moisture supply creating unfavourable conditions for glacier formation. Such stadial conditions are likely to have favoured periglacial conditions and the formation of features such as rock glaciers. Conversely, warm summer temperatures during major interstadials would have promoted glacier ablation, offsetting increased precipitation enabled by warmer sea surface temperatures. Thus, the most favourable conditions for glacier formation would have occurred during intermediate conditions between major stadials and interstadials. It is clear that former glacier behaviour in the mountains of this region is best understood with reference to temporally dynamic glacier–climate models, which take into account millennial-scale changes in both precipitation and temperature.     

Variability in terrestrial carbon sinks over two decades: Part 2 — Eurasia

We have analyzed 17 yr (1982–1998) of net carbon flux predictions from a simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover. The NASA-CASA model was driven by vegetation cover properties derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and radiative transfer algorithms that were developed for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We report that although the terrestrial ecosystem sink for atmospheric CO₂ for the Eurasian region has been fairly consistent at between 0.3 and 0.6 Pg C per year since 1988, high interannual variability in net ecosystem production (NEP) fluxes can be readily identified at locations across the continent. Ten major areas of highest variability in NEP were detected: eastern Europe, the Iberian Peninsula, the Balkan states, Scandinavia, northern and western Russia, eastern Siberia, Mongolia and western China, and central India. Analysis of climate anomalies over this 17-yr time period suggests that variability in precipitation and surface solar irradiance could be associated with trends in carbon sink fluxes within such regions of high NEP variability.     

Mikulino and Valdai palaeoenvironments in the Vologda area, NW Russia

Nine representative sediment sequences and pollen diagrams obtained during the Quaternary mapping programme carried out by the Geological Expedition (St. Petersburg, Russia) between 1960s and 1980s are presented from the Vologda area, NW Russian Plain, covering the time span from the Moscow cold (Saale) stage into the Late Valdai (Weichsel) substage. This work was done in order to shed light on the evolution of palaeoenvironments, vegetation and climate in the area. The results suggest that two major depressions in the Vologda area, namely the Mologa–Sheksnian and Prisukhonian basins, witnessed lake level fluctuations that were most likely closely linked to climatic fluctuations. It is suggested that during the Mikulino (Eem) thermal optimum most of the lowland areas were dry land. However, during the Early and Middle Valdai, the large depressions started to flood as a result of wet and cold climate. This caused the accumulation of lacustrine and also lacustrine–alluvial and lacustrine–bog sediments into the basins. The Valdai forest composition varied between closed spruce–birch forests and treeless tundra. Lakes persisted throughout the Valdai stage including the extremely dry last glacial maximum (LGM)-time when the Scandinavian Ice Sheet dammed the northbound rivers in the Vologda area.     

A late Quaternary lake record from the Qilian Mountains (NW China): evolution of the primary production and the water depth reconstructed from macrofossil, pollen, biomarker, and isotope data

The history (45–0 ka BP) of the aquatic vegetation composition of the shallow alpine Lake Luanhaizi from the NE Tibetan Plateau is inferred from aquatic plant macrofossil frequencies and aquatic pollen and algae concentrations in the sediments. C/N (range: 0.3–100), δ¹³C (range: −28 to −15‰), and n-alkane measurements yielded further information on the quantitative composition of sedimentary organic matter. The inferred primary production of the former lake ecosystem has been examined in respect of the alternative stable state theory of shallow lakes [Scheffer, M., 1989. Alternative stable states in eutrophic, shallow freshwater systems: a minimal model. Hydrobiological Bulletin 23, 73–83]. Switches between clear and turbid water conditions are explained by a colder climate and forest decline in the catchment area of Lake Luanhaizi. The macrofossil-based reconstruction of past water depth and salinity ranges, as well as other organic matter (OM) proxies allowed climatic inferences of the summer monsoon intensity during the late Quaternary. Around 45 ka BP, conditions similar to or even moister than present-day climate occurred. The Lake Luanhaizi record is further evidence against an extensive glaciation of the Tibetan Plateau and its bordering mountain ranges during the Last Glacial Maximum. Highest lake levels and consequently a strong summer monsoon are recorded for the early Holocene period, while gradually decreasing lake levels are reconstructed for the middle and late Holocene.     

Simulation of the Eurasian ice sheet dynamics during the last glaciation

The Eurasian Weichselian glaciation is studied with the SICOPOLIS ice-sheet model and UKMO PMIP climate anomaly forcings. A set of sensitivity tests are completed, including runs in cold-ice mode, different positive-degree-day (PDD) factors and modified climatic data-sets. The model set-up with present-day climatology modified by a glacial index brings forth an areally correct Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) extent in the western areas, but the ice-sheet volume is too small compared to reconstructions from rebound rates. Applying modified climate data results in similar extent as indicated by the Quaternary Environment of the Eurasian North (QUEEN) Late Weichselian ice-sheet reconstruction. The simulation results display freshwater fluxes from melting and calving in phase with Heinrich events H3 at 27, H2 at 22, and H1 at 14 ka ago. These peaks correspond to fast flow areas, with main activity at 27 and 22 ka ago in the Nordic Channel area and later in the Bear Island and Storfjorden region. The activity of these areas seems to be shifting from south to north from LGM to the Holocene. The freshwater pulse at 19–18.5 ka could correspond to Dansgaard–Oeschger oscillation, as well as ice volume flux peaks around 18–17 ka ago on the western margin of the ice sheet.     

Are dust storm activities in North China related to Arctic ice–snow cover?

The generation and development of dust storms are controlled by land surface conditions and atmospheric circulations. The latter, in turn, is influenced by the global ice–snow cover. In this study, we examine the relationship between the characteristics of dust storm activities in north China and the changes of global climate patterns. In particular, we are interested in whether Arctic ice–snow cover is related to the dust storm frequencies and intensities in north China. Our analysis, based on the monthly data for the period from 1954 to 1994, shows that this is indeed the case. This result suggests that the Arctic ice–snow cover can be used for the long-term prediction of dust storm activities in north China, and dust storm activities also serve as an indicator of global climate change.     

Desert margins near the Chinese Loess Plateau during the mid-Holocene and at the Last Glacial Maximum: a model–data intercomparison

Expansion and contraction of desert margins around the globe have been inferred from a variety of proxy data and have since been linked, particularly in northern China and in the sub-Sahel, to changes in freshwater flux, vegetation cover, sea surface temperatures and, perhaps most importantly, monsoon circulations. We present a direct comparison of results from numerical general circulation model experiments for the mid-Holocene and for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) with the climatic conditions that have been inferred from loess–paleosol sequences taken from the Chinese Loess Plateau.During the mid-Holocene in northern China, the northwestward migration of the southeast desert margin that has been suggested by grain size analysis is also expressed in the model results. There is a statistically significant wetting of the Plateau region, and increased soil moisture is a consequence of an enhanced summer monsoon whose latent heat release deepens the cyclonic Tibetan low and brings increased low-level convergence and precipitation to the area. North of the desert region, this circulation dries the soil through enhanced atmospheric subsidence, although the northern margin of the desert does not migrate significantly.Expansion of the desert margin toward the southeast at the LGM is small, but there is a statistically significant drying of the Plateau. The local hydrological cycle is reduced, and there is an increase in large-scale atmospheric subsidence over the region that is caused by the presence of the Fennoscandian ice sheet upwind. Model results therefore suggest that, in addition to local micro- and mesoclimatic conditions, regional effects, such as monsoon circulations and distal orography, are also important factors in determining the location of desert margins.     

Pre-industrial-potential and Last Glacial Maximum global vegetation simulated with a coupled climate-biosphere model: diagnosis of bioclimatic relationships

The global climate–vegetation model HadSM3_TRIFFID has been used to estimate the equilibrium states of climate and vegetation with pre-industrial and last glacial boundary conditions. The present study focuses on the evaluation of the terrestrial biosphere component (TRIFFID) and its response to changes in climate and CO₂ concentration. We also show how, by means of a diagnosis of the distribution of plant functional types according to climate parameters (soil temperature, winter temperature, growing-degree days, precipitation), it is possible to get better insights into the strengths and weaknesses of the biosphere model by reference to field knowledge of ecosystems.The model exhibits profound changes between the vegetation distribution at the Last Glacial Maximum and today that are generally consistent with palaeoclimate data, such as the disappearance of the Siberian boreal forest (taiga), an increase in shrub cover in Europe and an increase of the subtropical desert area. The effective equatorial and sub-tropical tree area is reduced by 18%. There is also an increase in cover of wooded species in North-Western Africa and in Mexico. The analysis of bioclimatic relationships turns out to be an efficient method to infer the contributions of different climatic factors to vegetation changes, both at high latitudes, where the position of the boreal treeline appears in this model to be more directly constrained by the water stress than by summer temperature, and in semi-humid areas where the contributions of temperature and precipitation changes may partly compensate each other. Our study also confirms the major contribution of the decrease in CO₂ to environmental changes and carbon storage through its selective impact on gross primary productivity of C3 and C4 plants and a reduction by 25% of water-use efficiency. Specifically, the reduction in CO₂ concentration increases the amount of precipitation necessary to sustain at least 20% of grass fraction by 50 mm/year; the corresponding threshold for trees is increased by about 150 mm/year. As a consequence, a reduction in CO₂ concentration considerably widens the climatic range where grasses and shrubs dominate.     

Late glacial and Holocene environmental change in the Lake Baikal region documented by oxygen isotopes from diatom silica

We investigate late glacial and Holocene climate change recorded in Lake Baikal using the oxygen isotope composition of diatom silica (δ¹⁸O_DIAT). Evaporation from the lake is minor, and the temperature fractionations of δ¹⁸O are unable to explain variations in the δ¹⁸O_DIAT record alone. Isotopically, low meltwater input from glaciers may have some influence on δ¹⁸O_DIAT, but the assumed periods of climatic warming and wastage do not coincide with large shifts in δ¹⁸O_DIAT. There is a gradual oxygen isotope lowering from 27.0‰ to 20.6‰ over the late glacial, while, during the Holocene, δ¹⁸O_DIAT values return to relatively high values. Previous studies of the modern oxygen and hydrogen isotope composition of Lake Baikal's inputs reveal that fluvial input to the lake's North Basin are isotopically lower than fluvial input from South Basin rivers. This north–south gradient of river δ¹⁸O and δD is mainly due to the greater input from isotopically low winter precipitation in the north and isotopically higher summer precipitation in the south. As a result, the δ¹⁸O_DIAT record from Lake Baikal can at least in part be explained by varying input from these sources related to seasonal changes in precipitation. Changes in atmospheric conditions may have a role in altering seasonality and the distribution of precipitation over Lake Baikal's catchment. A feedback mechanism is well known linking higher Eurasian spring snow cover extent (ESSC) to the development of anticyclonic conditions and low precipitation the following summer in the areas south of Lake Baikal. A simultaneous increase in the importance of depleted water (snowmelt) input from the north and decreased enriched summer precipitation in the south is needed to explain depletions in δ¹⁸O of lake water and subsequently δ¹⁸O_DIAT during colder periods. The opposite of this situation is required to enrich lake water during warmer periods. The analysis of δ¹⁸O from diatom silica is a useful proxy for environmental change, especially in lakes, like Lake Baikal, where carbonates are absent or diluted. However, analysis must be based on near pure diatom samples as even trace amounts of silt can have a dominating effect on δ¹⁸O_DIAT values.