Characteristics of ring seismicity in different depth ranges before large and great earthquakes in the Sumatra region

Characteristics of the seismicity in depth ranges 0–33 and 34–70 km before ten large and great (M _w = 7.0−9.0) earthquakes of 2000–2008 in the Sumatra region are studied, as are those in the seismic gap zones where no large earthquakes have occurred since at least 1935. Ring seismicity structures are revealed in both depth ranges. It is shown that the epicenters of the main seismic events lie, as a rule, close to regions of overlap or in close proximity to “shallow” and “deep” rings. Correlation dependences of ring sizes and threshold earthquakes magnitudes on energy of the main seismic event in the ring seismicity regions are obtained. Identification of ring structures in the seismic gap zones (in the regions of Central and South Sumatra) suggests active processes of large earthquake preparation proceed in the region. The probable magnitudes of imminent seismic events are estimated from the data on the seismicity ring sizes.     

On the validity of time-predictable model for earthquake generation in north-east India

North-east India is seismically very active and has experienced many widelydistributed shallow, large earthquakes. Earthquake generation model for the region was studied using seismicity data [(1906–1984) prepared by National Geophysical Data Centre (NGDC), Boulder Colorado, USA]. For establishing statistical relations surface wave magnitudes (M _s≥5·5) have been considered. In the region four seismogenic sources have been identified which show the occurrences of atleast three earthquakes of magnitude 5·5≤M _s≤7·5 giving two repeat times. It is observed that the time interval between the two consecutive main shock depends on the preceding main shock magnitude (M _p) and not on the following main shock magnitude (M _f) revealing the validity of time predictable model for the region. Linear relation between logarithm of repeat time (T) and preceding main shock magnitude (M _p) is established in the form of logT=cM _p+a. The values ofc anda are estimated to be 0–36 and 1–23, respectively. The relation may be used for seismic hazard evaluation in the region.     

Integration and magnitude homogenization of the Egyptian earthquake catalogue

The aim of the present work is to compile and update a catalogue of the instrumentally recorded earthquakes in Egypt, with uniform and homogeneous source parameters as required for the analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard assessment. This in turn requires a detailed analysis and comparison of the properties of different available sources, including the distribution of events with time, the magnitude completeness, and the scaling relations between different kinds of magnitude reported by different agencies. The observational data cover the time interval 1900–2004 and an area between 22°–33.5° N and 25°–36° E. The linear regressions between various magnitude types have been evaluated for different magnitude ranges. Using the best linear relationship determined for each available pair of magnitudes, as well as those identified between the magnitudes and the seismic moment, we convert the different magnitude types into moment magnitudes M _W, through a multi-step conversion process. Analysis of the catalogue completeness, based on the M _W thus estimated, allows us to identify two different time intervals with homogeneous properties. The first one (1900–1984) appears to be complete for M _W ≥ 4.5, while the second one (1985–2004) can be considered complete for magnitudes M _W ≥ 3.     

The possibility of a tsunami on Lake Baikal

Based on the general physical nature of tsunami generation, it is established that it is an attribute of seismically hazardous areas and regions adjacent to large water reservoirs and is threatening to the population and infrastructure of the coastal zones. The main preconditions and possibilities for the occurrence of tsunami on Lake Baikal are considered: the information on earthquakes in the Baikal hollow during the instrumental-historical period (1724–2011) is generalized in the map of epicenters of shocks of magnitude M ⩾ 5 and histograms of the distribution of numbers of shocks with respect to magnitude. It is shown that the tsunami waves start forming on Baikal if the earthquake magnitude M is ≈5, but since a system of tsunami monitoring on Baikal is absent, it can be observed only during the strongest earthquakes of M > 7. The catastrophic Tsagan earthquake (1861, M ≈ 7.5) is given as an example. It happened near the eastern coast of Lake Baikal and caused a tsunami with people’s deaths.     

Assessment of flexural analysis applied to the Sumatra-Java subduction zone

Indian Ocean subduction zone is one of the most active plate margins of the globe as evident from its vast record of great magnitude earthquake and tsunami events. We use Bouguer admittance (Morlet isostatic response function) in Sumatra-Java subduction zones comprising both the subduction and over-riding plates to determine the lithospheric mechanical strength variations. We determine effective elastic thickness (T _e ) for five oceanic windows (size 990 × 990 km²) by analyzing the admittance using Bouguer gravity and bathymetry data. The results show bimodal T _e values < 20 km for Sumatra and 20−40 km for Java. The lower bimodal values obtained for Sumatra appears to correlate well with the zones of historical seismicity. This is in sharp contrast with Java subduction zone, which shows higher T _e values (20–40 km) and apparently associated with low magnitude earthquakes. We suggest a strong and wide interseismic coupling for Sumatra between the subducting and over-riding plates, and deeper mantle contributing to low strength, shallow focus — high magnitude seismicity and vice versa for Java, leading to their seismogenic zonation.     

Earthquake forerunner as probable precursor — an example from north burma subduction zone

The Burmese Arc seismic activity is not uniform for its ∼ 1100 km length; only the Northern Burmese Arc (NBA) is intensely active. Six large earthquakes in the magnitude range 6.1–7.4 have originated from the NBA Benioff zone between 1954–2011, within an area of 200 × 300 km² where the Indian plate subducts eastward to depths beyond 200 km below the Burma plate. An analysis on seismogenesis of this interplate region suggests that while the subducting lithosphere is characterized by profuse seismicity, seismicity in the overriding plate is rather few. Large earthquakes occurring in the overriding plate are associated with the backarc Shan-Sagaing Fault (SSF) further east. The forecasting performance of the Benioff zone earthquakes in NBA as forerunner is analysed here by: (i) spatial earthquake clustering, (ii) seismic cycles and their temporal quiescence and (iii) the characteristic temporal b-value changes. Three such clusters (C1–C3) are identified from NBA Benioff Zones I & II that are capable of generating earthquakes in the magnitude ranges of 7.38 to 7.93. Seismic cycles evidenced for the Zone I displayed distinct quiescence (Q₁, Q₂ and Q₃) prior to the 6^th August 1988 (M 6.6) earthquake. Similar cycles were used to forecast an earthquake (Dasgupta et al. 2010) to come from the Zone I (cluster C1); which, actually struck on 4 February 2011 (M 6.3). The preparatory activity for an event has already been set in the Zone II and we speculate its occurrence as a large event (M > 6.0) possibly within the year 2012, somewhere close to cluster C3. Temporal analysis of b-value indicates a rise before an ensuing large earthquake.     

Seismicity pattern in north Sumatra-Great Nicobar region: In search of precursor for the 26 December 2004 earthquake

We analyse the seismicity pattern including b-value in the north Sumatra-Great Nicobar region from 1976 to 2004. The analysis suggests that there were a number of significant, intermediate and short-term precursors before the magnitude 7.6 earthquake of 2 November 2002. However, they were not found to be so prominent prior to the magnitude 9.0 earthquake of 26 December 2004 though downward migration of activity and a 50-day short-term quiescence was observed before the event. The various precursors identified include post-seismic and intermediate-term quiescence of 13 and 10 years respectively, between the 1976 (magnitude 6.3) and 2002 earthquakes with two years (1990–1991) of increase in background seismicity; renewed seismicity, downward migration of seismic activity and foreshocks in 2002, just before the mainshock. Spatial variation in b-value with time indicates precursory changes in the form of high b-value zone near the epicenter preceding the mainshocks of 2004 and 2002 and temporal rise in b-value in the epicentral area before the 2002 earthquake.     

Frequency-magnitude,depth, and time relations for earthquakes in an island arc: North Island,New Zealand

Analysis of over 1400 earthquakes in the North Island of New Zealand from 1955 to 1969, comprising all shocks with m_l ? 4.3 for shallow, and M_L ? 4.0 for deep events, reveals several empirical relationships between the depth and the equivalent radius of the area occupied by shocks, the number and density of the shocks, and the coefficient b and the maximum magnitude. The coefficient b increases linearly with depth from 1.0 for shallow earthquakes to 1.4 for those at a depth of 120 km, and then decreases to 0.75 at 300—350 km. The variation with depth shows clear inverse correlation with the distribution of maximum stress along the downgoing slab, calculated for several slab models by Smith and Toksöz. Similarly, the maximum magnitude at different depths correlates distinctly with the distribution of the principal stress. Time variations of the coefficient b and the rate of earthquake occurrence, for both shallow and deep earthquakes, have an oscillatory character, with a period of 7–8 years. These variations also imply that shallow and deep seismicity are mutually dependent.     

On the possibilities of premonitory swarms for three sequences of earthquakes of the Burma—Szechwan region

Short term spatial and temporal variations in seismicity prior to the three sequences of earthquakes of m_b 5.8 of the Burma—Szechwan region are studied. Six years (1971–1976) of ISC seismicity data, as reported in the Regional Catalogue of Earthquakes, are considered. During the period, six earthquakes of body wave magnitude m_b 5.8 occurred in four sequences. Of these, three sequences are preceded by swarm activity in the epicentral regions. Evison (1977b) suggested that the swarm before the sequences of large shocks is a possible long-term precursor. He derived the conclusion by analyzing earthquakes in New Zealand and California. The analysis of the seismicity data for the region under investigation supports Evison's view and suggests that a relation between swarms and sequences of large events exists. The precursory time period (i.e. the time from beginning of the swarm to the main shock) for the Szechwan earthquakes of m_b = 5.9 (Feb. 6, 1973) and m_b = 5.8 (May 10, 1974) and the Burma earthquake of m_b = 6.2 (Aug. 12, 1976) are 305, 317 and 440 days, respectively.     

Statistical Models of the Seismicity of the Vrancea Region, Romania

A parameterization derived from the Weibull distribution is used to model the seismic activity of the Vrancea region.The analysis of 498 crustal earthquakes with local magnitudes greater than 2.0, and 1377 subcrustal events with local magnitudes greater than 2.5 emphasizes that the shallow sequences show a strong clustering tendency, while the intermediate depth mainshock sequences are modeled by a completely random pattern in space and time. These results are not influenced by the magnitude threshold and the width of the time window.The difference between the seismicity patterns in the crust and in the subcrustal zone correlates with the difference between the stress field within these two regions.     

An application of regional time and magnitude predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in the vicinity of October 8, 2005 Kashmir Himalaya earthquake

A regional time and magnitude predictable model has been applied to estimate the recurrence intervals for large earthquakes in the vicinity of 8 October 2005 Kashmir Himalaya earthquake (25°–40°N and 65°–85°E), which includes India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Hindukush, Pamirs, Mangolia and Tien-Shan. This region has been divided into 17 seismogenic sources on the basis of certain seismotectonics and geomorphological criteria. A complete earthquake catalogue (historical and instrumental) of magnitude Ms ≥ 5.5 during the period 1853–2005 has been used in the analysis. According to this model, the magnitude of preceding earthquake governs the time of occurrence and magnitude of future mainshock in the sequence. The interevent time between successive mainshocks with magnitude equal to or greater than a minimum magnitude threshold were considered and used for long-term earthquake prediction in each of seismogenic sources. The interevent times and magnitudes of mainshocks have been used to determine the following predictive relations: logT _t = 0.05 M _min + 0.09 M _p − 0.01 log M ₀ + 01.14; and M _f = 0.21 M _min − 0.01 M _p + 0.03 log M ₀ + 7.21 where, T _t is the interevent time of successive mainshocks, M _min is minimum magnitude threshold considered, M _p is magnitude of preceding mainshock, M _f is magnitude of following mainshock and M ₀ is the seismic moment released per year in each seismogenic source. It was found that the magnitude of following mainshock (M _f) does not depend on the interevent time (T _t), which indicates the ability to predict the time of occurrence of future mainshock. A negative correlation between magnitude of following mainshock (M _f) and preceding mainshock (M _p) indicates that the larger earthquake is followed by smaller one and vice versa. The above equations have been used for the seismic hazard assessment in the considered region. Based on the model applicability in the studied region and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of last mainshock in each seismogenic source, the time-dependent conditional probabilities (PC) for the occurrence of next shallow large mainshocks (Ms ≥ 6.5), during next 20 years as well as the expected magnitudes have been estimated.     

Tsunami magnitudes in Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia

The regional characteristics of tsunami magnitudes in the SE Asia region are discussed in relation to earthquake magnitudes during the period from 1960 to 1994. Tsunami magnitudes on the Imamura-Iida scale are investigated by the author's method (Hatori 1979, 1986) using the data of inundation heights near the source area and tide-gauge records observed in Japan. The magnitude values of the Taiwan tsunamis showed relatively to be small. On the contrary, the magnitudes of tsunamis in the vicinities of the Philippines and Indonesia exceed more than 1–2 grade (tsunami heights: 2–5 times) compared to earthquakes with similar size on the circum-Pacific zone. The relation between tsunami magnitude, m, and earthquake magnitude, M _s, is expressed as m = 2.66 M _s– 17.5 for these regions. For example, the magnitudes for the 1976 Mindanao tsunami (M _s= 7.8, 3702 deaths) and the 1992 Flores tsunami (M _s= 7.5, 1713 deaths) were determined to be m = 3 and m = 2.5, respectively. The focal depth of tsunamigenic earthquakes is shallower thand< 36 km, and the detectively of tsunamis is small for deep earthquakes being d > 40 km. For future tsunamis, it is indispensable to take precautions against shallow earthquakes having the magnitudes M _s> 6.5.     

Mechanism of the reservoir impounding earthquakes at Hsinfengkiang and a preliminary endeavour to discuss their cause

After the filling up of the Hsinfengkiang Reservoir Kwangtung Province, seismicity was greatly increased. The majority of earthquakes occurred in the deep water gorge close to the dam, concentrated within a northwest belt. They are usually of shallow focal depths. A strong earthquake with magnitude 6.1 took place on March 19, 1962, about two and a half years since the impounding of the reservoir.

According to the results of analysis of data from geodetic leveling and the spectra of seismic waves, the fault parameters of the main shock were determined. The fault plane solutions of 150 small earthquakes, occurring within a period of 18 months before and after the main shock were determined from the amplitudes of the first motion of P wave. The directions of the earthquake generating stress of about 2000 small earthquakes were obtained by smoothing the first motion patterns. Displacement field and stress field in the rock bodies underneath the reservoir caused by the loading of the reservoir water were calculated. Variations of the velocity ratio of the P and S waves prior to the main shock and several strong aftershocks were analysed.

In consideration of the seismicity as well as the geological background, we endeavour to discuss the cause of reservoir impounding earthquakes at Hsinfengkiang. We have the opinion that the penetration of water along fissures becomes the most important cause of the main shock of March 19, 1962 at Hsinfengkiang.     

Regional time-predictable modeling in the Hindukush–Pamir–Himalayas region

The seismic characteristic of Hindukush–Pamir–Himalaya (HPH) and its vicinity is very peculiar and has experienced many widely distributed large earthquakes. Recent work on the time-dependent seismicity in the Hindukush–Pamir–Himalayas is mainly based on the so-called “regional time-predictable model”, which is expressed by the relation log T=cM_p+a, where T is the inter-event time between two successive main shocks of a region and M_p is the magnitude of the preceded main shock. Parameter a is a function of the magnitude of the minimum earthquake considered and of the tectonic loading and c is positive (0.3) constant. In 90% of the cases with sufficient data, parameter c was found to be positive, which strongly supports the validity of the model. In the present study, a different approach, which assumes no prior regionalization of the area, is attempted to check the validity of the model. Nine seismic sources were defined within the considered region and the inter-event time of strong shallow main shock were determined and used for each source in an attempt at long-term prediction, which show the clustering and occurrence of at least three earthquakes of magnitude 5.5≤M_s≤7.5 giving two repeat times, satisfying the necessary and sufficient conditions of time-predictable model (TP model). Further, using the global applicability of the regional time- and magnitude-predictable model, the following relations have been obtained: log T_t=0.19 M_min+0.52M_p+0.29 log m₀−10.63 and M_f=1.31M_min−0.60M_p−0.72 log m₀+21.01, where T_t is the inter-event time, measured in years; M_min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest main shock considered; M_p the magnitude of preceding main shock; M_f the magnitude of the following main shock; and m₀ the moment rate in each source per year.

These relations may be used for seismic hazard assessment in the region. Based on these relations and taking into account the time of occurrence and the magnitude of the last main shock in each seismogenic source, time-dependent conditional probabilities for the occurrence of the next large (M_s≥5.5) shallow main shocks during the next 20 years as well as the magnitudes of the expected main shocks are determined.     

What triggers Koyna region earthquakes? Preliminary results from seismic tomography digital array

The cause for prolific seismicity in the Koyna region is a geological enigma. Attempts have been made to link occurrence of these earthquakes with tectonic strain as well as the nearby reservoirs. With a view to providing reliable seismological database for studying the earth structure and the earthquake process in the Koyna region, a state of the art digital seismic network was deployed for twenty months during 1996–97. We present preliminary results from this experiment covering an area of 60 × 80 km² with twenty seismic stations. Hypocentral locations of more than 400 earthquakes confined to 11×25 km² reveal fragmentation in the seismicity pattern — a NE — SW segment has a dip towards NW at approximately 45°, whilst the other two segments show a near vertical trend. These seismic segments have a close linkage with the Western Ghat escarpment and the Warna fault. Ninety per cent of the seismicity is confined within the depth range of 3–10 km. The depth distribution of earthquakes delimits the seismogenic zone with its base at 10 km indicating a transition from an unstable to stable frictional sliding regime. The lack of shallow seismicity between 0 and 3 km indicates a mature fault system with well-developed gouge zones, which inhibit shallow earthquake nucleation. Local earthquake travel time inversion for P- and S-waves show ≈ 2% higher velocity in the seismogenic crust (0–10 km) beneath the epicentral tract relative to a lower velocity (2–3%) in the adjoining region. The high P- and S-wave velocity in the seismogenic crust argues against the presence of high pressure fluid zones and suggests its possible linkage with denser lithology. The zone of high velocity has been traced to deeper depths (≈ 70 km) through teleseismic tomography. The results reveal segmented and matured seismogenic fault systems in the Koyna region where seismicity is possibly controlled by strain build up due to competent lithology in the seismic zone with a deep crustal root.     

Structure and dynamics of the Somma-Vesuvius volcanic complex

Summary We review recently obtained results about the velocity structure of the Somma-Vesuvius (Southern Italy) volcanic complex and present an interpretation of structural features, both at local and regional scale, and of the local seismicity. The local structure of Somma-Vesuvius is reviewed, referring to three depth ranges; i.e. shallow (0–5 km), intermediate (5–15 km) and deep (from 15 km to the upper mantle). The shallow velocity structure is inferred by the joint inversion of shot and local earthquake arrival time data. The main feature pointed out by this inversion is a high-velocity anomaly at the crater axis extending down to a depth of about 5 km. This anomaly can be explained with the presence of residual magma crystallised in the shallow conduits, which accumulated during the last eruptive cycles. The local seismicity is strongly clustered around this anomaly, due to the focusing effect of the rigidity contrast. The space-time seismicity pattern at Somma-Vesuvius is the result of the superposition of background seismicity, mainly due to gravitational instability of the volcanic edifice and to small external stress perturbations, with intense episodic earthquake swarms possibly due to magmatic or hydrothermal activity into the shallow system. The velocity structure in the 10–15 km depth range is characterized by the presence of a low-velocity layer, which has been independently confirmed by multi-channel seismic reflection data and P-Sv conversions from teleseismic waveforms. The study of the deep structure was performed by regional tomography with teleseisms; it confirmed the presence of a low-velocity anomaly underneath the volcano, which appears to have roots at greater depths. The regional structure between the Thyrrenian and the Adriatic sea has been inferred by tomographic inversion of teleseismic arrival times. The main result from this study which is very important for geodynamic interpretations is the first evidence for a continuous subducting slab under the Apennines, in an area where previous models hypothesized a slab window. Received March 3, 2000 revised version accepted July 4, 2001     

Source parameters of March 10 and September 13, 2007, United Arab Emirates earthquakes

On March 10 and September 13, 2007 two earthquakes with moment magnitudes 3.66 and 3.94, respectively, occurred in the eastern part of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The two events were widely felt in the northern Emirates and Oman and were accompanied by a few aftershocks. Ground motions from these events were well recorded by the broadband stations of Dubai (UAE) and Oman seismological networks and provide an excellent opportunity to study the tectonic process and present day stress field acting in this area. In this study, we report the focal mechanisms of the two main shocks by two methods: first motion polarities and regional waveform moment tensor inversion. Our results indicate nearly pure normal faulting mechanisms with a slight strike slip component. We associated the fault plane trending NNE–SSW with a suggested fault along the extension of the faults bounded Bani Hamid area. The seismicity distribution between two earthquake sequences reveals a noticeable gap that may be a site of a future event. The source parameters (seismic moment, moment magnitude, fault radius, stress drop and displacement across the fault) were also estimated from displacement spectra. The moment magnitudes were very consistent with waveform inversion. The recent deployment of seismic networks in Dubai and Oman reveals tectonic activity in the northern Oman Mountains that was previously unknown. Continued observation and analysis will allow for characterization of seismicity and assessment of seismic hazard in the region.     

On the Bayesian analysis of the earthquake hazard in the North-East Indian peninsula

The Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences has been used to estimate the seismic hazard in 12 seismogenic zones of the North-East Indian peninsula. The Bayesian approach has been used very efficiently to combine the prior information on seismicity obtained from geological data with historical observations in many seismogenic zones of the world. The basic parameters to obtain the prior estimate of seismicity are the seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate and magnitude. These estimates are then updated in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical evaluations of seismicity associated with each zone. From the Bayesian analysis of extreme earthquake occurrences for North-East Indian peninsula, it is found that for T = 5 years, the probability of occurrences of magnitude (M _w = 5.0–5.5) is greater than 0.9 for all zones. For M _w = 6.0, four zones namely Z1 (Central Himalayas), Z5 (Indo-Burma border), Z7 (Burmese arc) and Z8 (Burma region) exhibit high probabilities. Lower probability is shown by some zones namely␣Z4, Z12, and rest of the zones Z2, Z3, Z6, Z9, Z10 and Z11 show moderate probabilities.     

Coseismic responses and the mechanism behind MW 5.1 earthquake of March 14, 2005 in the Koyna–Warna region, India

An earthquake of M_w 5.1 occurred on March 14, 2005, in the seismically active Koyna–Warna region in western India, the site known for the largest reservoir triggered seismicity (RTS) in the world. For more than four decades, earthquakes with M  4.0 have occurred in this region at regular intervals. Impoundment of reservoirs and changes in lake levels can trigger earthquakes by two processes of stress modifications, namely direct loading effect of the reservoir and diffusion through various faults and fractures. In this paper we analysed the reservoir water level data at Koyna and Warna reservoirs prior to the occurrence of the March 14, 2005 earthquake, to explain the dominant mechanism behind its occurrence and its correlation with the observed coseismic changes. We conclude that the diffusion process, not the reservoir load effect, is the dominating mechanism triggering earthquakes in the region. The coseismic changes in deep well water levels sensitive to earth tides are found to be to the order of 1–12 cm.