Stern’s Review and Adam’s fallacy

The Stern Review has played an enormous role in making the world of business aware of the challenge of long-term climate change. In order to make real progress on the basis of this awareness, it is important to pay attention to the difference between human suffering and losses of gross domestic product (GDP). The Review has compared climate change to experiences of suffering like World War I. That war, however, hardly affected global GDP. The long-term damages to be expected from business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions include loss of the coastal cities of the world over the next millennia. This would be an act of unprecedented barbarism, regardless of whether it would slow down economic growth or perhaps even accelerate it. Business leaders worried about climate change need to pay attention to the tensions between ethical and economic concerns. Otherwise, a credibility crisis threatens global climate policy. An important step to establish the credibility needed for effective climate policy will be to gradually move towards a regime where emission permits are auctioned, not handed out as hidden subsidies. The revenues generated by permit auctions should be used to establish a global system of regional climate funds.     

Developing Africa’s energy mix

Africa is growing rapidly both in terms of population size and economically. It is also becoming increasingly clear that fossil fuels impose a high price on society through local environmental pollution and Africa’s particular vulnerability to climate change. At the same time, Africa has an excellent renewable energy potential and prices for renewable energy are reaching the price range of fossil fuels. Comparing results from state-of-the-art Integrated Assessment Models we find different options for achieving a sustainable energy supply in Africa. They have in common, however, that strong economic development is considered compatible with the 2°C climate target. Taking both challenges and appropriate solutions into account, some models find that a complete switch to renewable energy in electricity production is possible in the medium term. The continental analysis identifies important synergy effects, in particular the exchange of electricity between neighbouring countries. The optimal energy mix varies considerably between African countries, but there is sufficient renewable energy for each country. The intermittency and higher capital intensity of renewable energy are important challenges, but proven solutions are available for them. In addition, we analyse the political economy of a sustainable energy transition in Africa.

Key policy insights

• An almost complete shift towards renewable energy (RE) is considered feasible and affordable in Africa.

• By 2050, electricity generation could be sourced largely from solar, wind and hydro power.

• Prices for RE in Africa are now within the price range of fossil fuels, partly due to the excellent RE potential.

• The optimal energy mix varies strongly between countries, but RE is sufficiently available everywhere.

• Addressing intermittency is possible, but requires investments and cooperation on the grid.

     

Atmospheric electricity and earth’s microseisms

Increase in the amplitudes of microseisms within the range from the tenths of hertz to 10 kHz leads to increase in the values of air polar conductivity and to decrease in atmospheric electric field. As the frequency of microseisms decreases, the efficiency of microseismic impact increases. In case of low amplitudes of microseisms, decrease in atmospheric electric field is observed only as a result of multimonth active impact on the geologic environment.     

Mitigation initiatives: Korea’s experiences

Korea, straddled between developing and developed country status, is facing challenges and opportunities in energy use and climate change mitigation potential. Unlike other OECD countries, Korea’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to continue to grow for the next two decades. The responses Korea could take to lower emissions without hampering economic development have an important bearing on the global response to climate change. This paper summarizes and evaluates mitigation strategies and major options for Korea in the energy sector, a major contributor to GHG emissions.     

Thermodynamic consistency of Raoult’s Law and Henry’s Law approaches for multiphase organic aerosol partitioning

Partitioning of semivolatile organic compounds between gas, organic aerosol, and aqueous aerosol phases has been described in atmospheric models using Raoult’s Law and/or Henry’s Law, with activity coefficients accounting for nonideal behavior in the aerosol solutions. Raoult’s Law and Henry’s Law are thermodynamically consistent with each other as long as the parameters defining their different reference states are accurately known. Unfortunately, saturation vapor pressures, Henry’s law constants, and activity coefficients for organic aerosol compounds must typically be estimated. As a result, thermodynamic inconsistencies can arise when using Raoult’s and Henry’s Law approaches together due to errors in estimation methods. A test of predicted partitioning parameters for representative semivolatile organics suggests overall errors of at least an order of magnitude. Box model simulations with a simplified partitioning scenario demonstrate that these estimation errors can significantly alter partitioning for many compounds and, more importantly, that thermodynamic inconsistencies will lead to even greater errors than those due solely to uncertain parameters. To avoid these errors, a common reference state should be used to define equilibrium among all phases, improved estimation methods and measurements should continue to be pursued, and alternative reference states that better represent typical organic aerosol mixtures should be explored.     

Projected changes in Malawi’s growing season

Climate Dynamics - Regional climate model projections at 30-km resolution are used to predict future mid-century and late-century growing season changes over Malawi due to global warming under the...     

Global Oceanic Climate Anomalies in 1980’s

The climate in the 1980’s is characterized by the appearance of two strong ENSO events and by the warmest dec-ade in global mean temperature. Whether there is a linkage between ENSO and global warming? This paper shows the climate anomaly patterns over the global ocean in the 1980’s and their comparison with that of ENSO composite mode and that simulated by 2 × CO2, indicating the role of super ENSO in the establishment of new climate regime in the 1980’s     

Air quality planning in California’s changing climate

California is home to some of the worst air quality in the nation and ninety percent of the state’s population lives in areas that are out of attainment with at least one of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Increasing temperatures associated with climate change will make meeting air quality standards more difficult. Under a changing climate, additional emission reductions will be needed to achieve clean air standards. These additional emission reductions and associated costs are called the “climate penalty.” Air quality planning is the process of assessing the emission reductions needed to meet air quality standards and outlining the programs and policies that will be implemented to achieve these emission reductions. This paper reviews the challenges that a changing climate will pose for air quality planning in California and identifies opportunities for adaptation. While state air quality regulators in California are taking enormous strides to address global warming, less work is happening at the regional, air district level. Air districts are the agencies responsible for developing air quality improvement plans. An important first step for regional air quality regulators will be to quantify the climate penalty and understand their region’s vulnerability to climate change. Limitations in regulatory authority could impede measures to improve preparedness. Regional agencies will likely need to look to state and federal agencies for additional emission reductions.     

Parametric model of the Earth’s radiation budget

Summary Proposition of the Earths radiation budget, based on properties of the absorption, reflection and scattering coefficients, is presented. In the model, the final fluxes of radiation are expressed directly by absorption properties of the atmospheres components. Consequently, total (i.e., with all feedback) greenhouse effect, forced by any component of the atmosphere, can be determined. Presented model is averaged and one dimensional, but it can be developed if it meets with acceptance.     

Climatic change: communication changes over this journal’s first ‘century’

Over the century of ‘Climatic Change’ volumes and the 33 years that they span the climate has changed. Here I consider the challenge of interdisciplinary communication to which the first 99 volumes of this journal are dedicated. Have we succeeded and have climatic change researchers shared findings with a broader audience? If this journal has been successful, should the editorial board and publishers now consider new modes of communicating research to a still wider public, say by hiring a communication cartoonist or with an interactive blog?     

Adapting California’s water management to climate change

California faces significant water management challenges from climate change, affecting water supply, aquatic ecosystems, and flood risks. Fortunately, the state also possesses adaptation tools and institutional capabilities that can limit vulnerability to changing conditions. Water supply managers have begun using underground storage, water transfers, conservation, recycling, and desalination to meet changing demands. These same tools are promising options for responding to a wide range of climate changes. Likewise, many staples of flood management—including reservoir operations, levees, bypasses, insurance, and land-use regulation—are available for the challenges of increased floods. Yet actions are also needed to improve response capacity. For water supply, a central issue is the management of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, where new conveyance, habitat investments, and regulations are needed to sustain water supplies and protect endangered fish species. For flood management, among the least-examined aspects of water management with climate change, needed reforms include forward-looking reservoir operation planning and floodplain mapping, less restrictive rules for raising local funds, and improved public information on flood risks. For water quality, an urgent priority is better science. Although local agencies are central players, adaptation will require strong-willed state leadership to shape institutions, incentives, and regulations capable of responding to change. Federal cooperation often will be essential.     

Low-carbon transition risks for India’s financial system

As the low-carbon transition accelerates, loans to and investments in carbon-intensive assets, firms and sectors are at risk of not generating the anticipated returns, with implications for individual financial institutions as well as financial markets more broadly. However, research on this topic has largely been focused on high- and upper-middle income economies to date. In this paper, we explore the salience of this issue in India – one of the world’s largest emitters and economies – by asking: (1) how extensive is financial-sector exposure to transition risks? And: (2) are finance professionals and financial institutions taking sufficient action to manage those transition risks? Our findings reveal that India’s financial sector is much more heavily exposed to low-carbon transition risks than standard borrowing classifications might suggest. For example, our granular assessment of individual loans and bonds finds that three-fifths of lending to the ‘mining’ sector is for oil and gas extraction, while one-fifth of ‘manufacturing’ debt is for petroleum refining and related industries. We also find that electricity production – by far the largest source of emissions – accounts for 5.2% of outstanding credit, but that only 17.5% of this lending is to pureplay renewables. Yet our survey of India’s largest financial institutions suggests that there have been limited efforts to identify, measure or manage low-carbon transition risks. Fewer than half of the 154 finance professionals surveyed were familiar with environmental issues including climate change mitigation and adaption, greenhouse gas emissions or transition risks. Only four of the ten major financial institutions surveyed collect information on ESG risks, and these firms do not systematically incorporate that data into business continuity planning, internal capital adequacy assessment processes, credit risk assessments, enterprise risk management frameworks or loan product pricing. Given extensive financial-sector exposure to low-carbon transition risks coupled with the absence of bottom-up action to manage those risks, our findings suggest that financiers, regulators and policymakers in emerging and developing economies should be acting swiftly to ensure an orderly transition to net-zero.     

Water use in China’s thermoelectric power sector

We quantify the current water use of China’s thermoelectric power sector with plant-level data. We also quantify the future implications for cooling water use of different energy supply scenarios at both a regional and national levels. Within China, water withdrawal and consumption are projected to exceed 280 and 15 billion m³ respectively by 2050 if China does not implement any new policies, up from current levels of 65.2 and 4.64 billion m³. Improving energy efficiency or transforming the energy infrastructure to renewable, or low-carbon, sources provides the opportunity to reduce water use by over 50%. At a regional level, central and eastern China account for the majority of the power sector’s water withdrawals, but water consumption is projected to increase in many regions under most scenarios. In high-renewable and low-carbon scenarios, concentrated solar power and inland nuclear power, respectively, constitute the primary fresh water users. Changing cooling technology, from open-loop to closed-loop in the south and from closed-loop to air cooling in the north, curtails the power sector’s water withdrawal considerably while increasing water consumption, particularly in eastern and central China. The power sector’s water use is predicted to exceed the regional industrial water quota under the ‘3 Red Line’ policy in the east under all scenarios, unless cooling technology change is facilitated. The industrial water quota is also likely to be violated in the central and the northern regions under a baseline scenario. Moreover, in line with electricity production, the power sector’s water use peaks in the winter when water availability is lowest. Water-for-energy is a highly contextual issue – a better understanding of its spatio-temporal characteristics is therefore critical for development of policies for sustainable cooling water use in the power sector.     

Sources of information for farmers’ adaptation practices in Canada’s Prairie agro-ecosystem

Successful adaptation assumes the availability of appropriate information for groups potentially impacted by climate change. This research examines information available to help farmers in the Canadian Prairies to adapt, with focus on information related to soil and water conservation practices, such as preserving wetlands and maintaining shelterbelts and groundcover, considered particularly important for this region. Results of 28 semi-structured interviews carried out with producers in two Prairie provinces, Alberta and Manitoba, revealed that information regarding soil and water conservation practices comes from a variety of sources. These included industry, government, producer and conservation organizations, social sources of information and personal experience, and media. Producers were more open to new practices when they could learn them through observation, trials, and two-way dialogue. There appears to be a general lack of producer organization involvement, and dearth of government information, direction, and coordination for climate change adaptation. Information from government and producer organizations can be important for the co-production of knowledge that can lead to successful adaptation.     

Arnol’d’s Second Nonlinear Stability Theorem for General Multilayer Quasi-geostrophic Model

Arnol’d’s second nonlinear stability criterion for motions governed by a general multilayer quasi-geostiophic model is established. The model allows arbitrary density jumps and layer thickness, and at the top and the bottom of the fluid, the boundary condition is either free or rigid. The criterion is obtained by the establishment of the upper bounds of disturbance energy and potential enstrophy in terms of the initial disturbance field.     

Drivers of change in Brazil’s carbon dioxide emissions

Brazil’s economic development has been underpinned by a diverse and – in a global comparison – unusual set of energy carriers, notably hydroelectricity and ethanol from sugar cane. Its energy mix makes Brazil one of the least energy-related carbon-intensive economies worldwide. Given that the country is fast becoming one of the world’s economic powerhouses, decision-makers need to understand the drivers underlying past and current carbon dioxide emissions trends. We therefore investigate a) which key long-term drivers have led to Brazil’s unique emissions profile, and b) the implications of these drivers for Brazil’s national policies. We show that Brazil’s emissions are growing mainly due to increasing individual standards of living, exports and population size, and that this growth is so far unchallenged by technological and structural improvements toward lower emissions intensities and more efficient production structures. As these trends are likely to continue amidst growing international pressure on key economies to reduce their carbon emissions, a decoupling of drivers from emissions is needed to simultaneously meet development and environmental goals.     

Sensor Calibration in Support for NOAA’s Satellite Mission

Sensor calibration, including its definition, purpose, traceability options, methodology, complexity, and importance, is examined in this paper in the context of supporting NOAA’s satellite mission. Common understanding of sensor calibration is essential for the effective communication among sensor vendors, calibration scientists, satellite operators, program managers, and remote sensing data users, who must cooperate to ensure that a nation’s strategic investment in a sophisticated operational environmental satellite system serves the nation’s interest and enhances the human lives around the world. Examples of calibration activities at NOAA/NESDIS/ORA are selected to further illustrate these concepts and to demonstrate the lessons learned from the past experience.     

Coal’s medium-run future under atmospheric greenhouse gas stabilization

We assess the future of coal under alternative climate stabilization regimes, investigating how the quantity and location of future coal production, trade and use depends upon five factors: the supply-side constraint of resource depletion, diversification and deepening of international trade, economic growth, trends in energy intensity, and the availability of coal-fired carbon-free electric generation technology (IGCC-CCS). Using the Phoenix computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, we find that coal is sensitive to demand-side assumptions about economic growth and energy-saving structural or technological change. In a 550 ppm stabilization emission tax scenario, the gobal coal industry initially declines sharply and then rebounds, in 2050 reaching roughly the same size as it is today—but only if IGCC-CCS is available by 2020. Under alternative stabilization regimes, IGCC-CCS penetration is a key influence on production and imports in major coal regions, where it interacts with extraction costs driven by the rate of depletion relative to trade partners.     

Growth and Decay of an Extra-Tropical Cyclone’s PV-Tower

Summary The surface low of a mature extra-tropical cyclone is often surmounted by a troposphere-spanning column of anomalously high potential vorticity (PV). In this study the growth and decay of such a PV-tower is traced for one major North Atlantic frontal-wave cyclone using the ECMWF analysis fields and adopting both Eulerian and Lagrangian frameworks. A tower’s structure and composition relates intimately to the strength, scale and structure of the associated surface cyclone. It is shown that the tower comprised a vertical superposition of three elements: (?) a quasi-seclusion of stratospheric air extruded from an upper-level trough, (ℬ) a mid-tropospheric layer of intermingled air from diverse sources, but with a substantial component originating from the system’s cold front, and (?) a low-tropospheric layer of diabatically-induced PV that was linked to and originated from flow along a bent-back warm front. An examination of the tower’s growth and decay helps identify the factors influencing the onset and rapidity of the cyclogenesis. There was first an in-phase development of a surface baroclinic wave with the precursor of element (?), and also the emergence of element (ℬ) in the form of a low-level elongated band of PV aligned along the cold front. Thereafter a short period of rapid growth was marked by the appearance of a low-level band of PV along the warm front (element ?), and it co-spiraled with and beneath the upper-level stratospheric intrusion (element ?). Demise of the tower followed a loss of amplitude of its central portion and a loss of coherency aloft. Evidence of the modulating as opposed to the dominating influence of diabatic processes upon the cyclone’s structure and strength is derived from consideration of: the tower’s durable and ephemeral potential vorticity, the PV production along the warm front, and sets of model simulations of the event that selectively suppress diabatic PV production. Received July 9, 1999 Revised December 2, 1999     

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere’s climate variability

Proxy and instrumental records reflect a quasi-cyclic 50–80-year climate signal across the Northern Hemisphere, with particular presence in the North Atlantic. Modeling studies rationalize this variability in terms of intrinsic dynamics of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation influencing distribution of sea-surface-temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean; hence the name Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). By analyzing a lagged covariance structure of a network of climate indices, this study details the AMO-signal propagation throughout the Northern Hemisphere via a sequence of atmospheric and lagged oceanic teleconnections, which the authors term the “stadium wave”. Initial changes in the North Atlantic temperature anomaly associated with AMO culminate in an oppositely signed hemispheric signal about 30?years later. Furthermore, shorter-term, interannual-to-interdecadal climate variability alters character according to polarity of the stadium-wave-induced prevailing hemispheric climate regime. Ongoing research suggests mutual interaction between shorter-term variability and the stadium wave, with indication of ensuing modifications of multidecadal variability within the Atlantic sector. Results presented here support the hypothesis that AMO plays a significant role in hemispheric and, by inference, global climate variability, with implications for climate-change attribution and prediction.