书报介绍

竺可桢涂长望张宝堃著国立中央研究院气象研究所出版.是书计604页,图13幅,搜罗之纪录,至民国二十二年为止, 集全国雨量纪录之大成,具精美新颖之图表.我国幅员之广,三十七倍于意大利,四十四倍于英吉利,血全国雨量站之设置,只近千数,以视英伦三岛之有雨量站五千三百余,意之有三千六百站者,诚瞠乎其後.     

中国之雨量

竺可桢涂长望张宝堃著国立中央研究院气象研究所出版。是书计604页,图13幅,搜罗之纪录,至民国二十二年为止, 集全国雨量纪录之大成,具精美新颖之图表。我国幅员之广,三十七倍于意大利,四十四倍于英吉利,血全国雨量站之设置,只近千数,以视英伦三岛之有雨量站五千三百余,意之有三千六百站者,诚瞠乎其後。且此近千数之雨量站中,大多数无精密之仪器,故整理之结果,于此近千站中,择其纪录年代较长而可靠者,列为两表,一为历年逐月雨量表计353站;一为历年逐月降水     

1991~2010年中国小时暴雨时空变化格局及其与城镇化因子的空间相关分析

采用1991~2010 年小时降水数据对中国小时暴雨雨量和雨时进行研究。结果表明,在时间上,1991~2010年中国小时暴雨雨量和雨时的年累计值在波动中呈明显增加趋势。在空间上,小时暴雨雨量和雨时的高值区主要集中在中国黑龙江漠河—云南腾冲一线的东部地区,该界线以西则是低值地区,其中小时暴雨变化最为显著地区主要集中在中国东南沿海地区和西北内陆地区。中国白昼和夜晚的小时暴雨雨量和雨时在空间分布上也有类似的规律。在日变化的时间尺度上,小时暴雨雨量和雨时呈现出双峰现象,最高值均出现在17：00（北京时间,下同）,而最低值出现在12：00。同时选择表征城镇化发展水平的夜晚灯光指数、黑炭气溶胶、低能见度日数和细颗粒物（PM2.5）浓度4 个因子,分别与小时暴雨雨量和雨时做空间相关分析。在全国平均水平上,4 个空间相关系数均在波动中呈明显增加趋势;而在中国气候变化区划一级分区上,空间相关系数均呈增加趋势,且增加趋势最为明显的是II 分区和III 分区。     

民国二十四年十一月份各地气象通讯

长沙温度平均与过去三年同月平均比较:衡阳低0.8度,长沙低0 4度,常德低1.9度;惟绝对最高,长沙之31.5度,衡阳之29.9度,常德之26.5度,皆为过去三年同月所无;绝对最低,相差甚微,间有低於过去三年同月者,故本月暖时,须着衣;冷时,又须着棉袍也。雨日,以长沙之十九日为最多,衡阳之十七日为次多,常德之十五日为最少,雨量亦如雨日,长沙最多,计213.7mm,衡阳次之,计161.4mm,常德最少计158.9mm,不惟皆多於过去三年同月平均,且超过过去三年同月之最高纪录,此所以湘河水位,中旬曾一度高涨也。     

割胶天气预报

在“农业学大寨”大好形势推动下,国营橡胶农场1975年超额完成了任务,1976年要实现胶产量翻一翻。如何保证胶水不给雨水冲掉,对我们这个多雨地区来说,割胶天气预报是我们农场气象站的主攻任务之一。目前,我站预报割胶天气有以下几种方法: 1.用20时的饱和差变化曲线预报割胶天气<见图1,适用7、8、9月)。 图1是20时饱和差曲线。12小时雨量是当晚到次日09时雨量,24小时雨量是当日20时至次日20时雨量,08时风向是次日风向。     

晨降压与降水过程

在一般情况下(即不受低值系统影响时),我站(海拔325米)气压日变化表现为两高、两低(10时左右最高,22时左右次高;16时左右最低,4时左右次低)。就08、14、20时三次定时观测而言,则表现为08时最高,14时次之,20时最低(以上均为北京时间,与本站平均太阳时约差一小时)。那么,在一日三次定时观测气压曲线上,就     

济南87.8特大暴雨的云系演变及特征

1987年8月26日12时至27日03时,济南地区出现了特大暴雨,15小时雨量为270毫米,1小时雨强为102.5毫米,市区纪录最大日雨量为340毫米,平阴、长清等地同时伴有龙卷风。通过对暴雨期间的GMS—3红外卫星云图的分析,结合天气形势演变,发现这次特大暴雨与积雨云团的合并和迅速扩展有密切关系,现论述如下。     

十月至十二月全国天气概况

民国二十九年十月十月已近冬令,雨量已减,晴日增多。于晚秋在长江流域常为副高气压所盘据,在此变质之西伯利亚冷气团中,所含之湿气甚少。本月之前半月于北纬三十度至四十度间几形为一高气压带。故各地大抵天气晴暖。雨量稀少,但于东南沿海一带则因受域风之侵袭本月雨量特多平均在四英寸以上,此次台风发见于九月二十七日,于一日经过福州。酿成风灾。二日于上海之东经过市内积水深三英尺,水势为六年来所未有。本月尚有两次之热带风暴。一次势力微弱不足称台风其行径皆经菲律宾及中国南海而扰东京湾。后半月温带气旋开始活动于     

单一暖湿气团中的特大暴雨

一九八一年五月九日,藤县平福下了特大暴雨。日雨量407.5毫米,其中以07时到11时最大,雨量达350.7毫米。九日到十一日三天过程雨量达648.5毫米。无论是24小时雨量还是过程雨量,都突破了梧州地区的三十年纪录,就陆地降水而言,在区内也是罕见的,三十年来只记录到十四个日雨量大于400毫米的雨量点,这次是第十五个。这次降雨过程,整个桂东雨量都较大,但唯平福特大(见图一)。据统计,自五月一日到廿八日,平福累计雨量已达到1000毫米,而藤县县城只有277毫米,距平福仅24公里的太平气象站雨量只有218毫米,广西暴雨中心之一     

近50年闽北前汛期强降水气候特征分析

通过对1961年~2012年近50年闽北前汛期(5~6月)日雨量资料、逐小时雨量资料和乡镇自动站雨量资料统计分析得出:闽北前汛期雨量和日雨量强度呈西北部向东南部倾斜,强降水中心与武夷山脉平行,越靠近武夷山脉前汛期雨量和日雨量越大,远离武夷山脉受山脉影响减弱,前汛期雨量和日雨量就明显减弱;闽北暴雨量级以上的逐小时雨强日变化的平均高峰值区出现在上午9时附近,强降水的主要降水时段在凌晨到中午;观测站与乡镇自动气象站之间的日雨量相关关系是地理位置分布比行政所属关系更重要。     

月平均环流异常的持续性与韵律性和海气相互作用

首先,讨论了环流异常的形成与海气相互作用的关系。指出在明显洋流区,尤其是暖洋流区,海洋为热源,对环流异常的形成有重要影响。在大洋中部的非洋流区,更大程度上是海洋热状况受大气环流控制。 其次,研究了环流异常的持续性。发现中纬度3—4月及9—10月有两次持续性的最低点,并且指出,这与冷热源的月际变化在春秋期间最大有关。但在低纬度,尤其在大洋上的暖洋流区,一年中只有一次持续性最低点,发生在夏末秋初。分析表明,这与那里冷热源强度的年变程有关。 最后,根据相似分析,讨论了环流及海温异常变化的韵律性问题。发现当两个月的环流异常相似时,以后并不是随着时间的推移相似性愈来愈小,而是在相隔4—5个月及9—11个月时相似性较大。这种大气与海洋的韵律活动在长期预报中有重要作用。     

青藏高原西部地表通量的年、日变化特征

利用青藏高原西部地区改则和狮泉河两个自动观测气象站1998年全年每天24个时次的风速、温度和湿度等梯度观测资料,采用湍流相似理论．计算了改则和狮泉河的动量通量、感热通量以及潜热通量。结果表明：改则和狮泉河两地的地表湍流通量都具有明显的季节变化和日变化,且其季节变化的相同点表现在感热通量均在5月份最大,1月份最小：而潜热通量均在8月份最大。不同点表现在改则的潜热通量在12月份最小,狮泉河1～5月平均潜热通量为负,以凝结为主,改则的月平均蒸发及全年的蒸发总量比狮泉河的要大。而其感热通量比后者的都小。日变化幅度随季节变化明显,表现在夏季地表通量的日变化幅度大,冬季要小得多。     

南海夏季风爆发前后华南前汛期降水日变化对比分析

利用华南地区248个国家级地面气象站逐小时降水数据和14个探空站数据,分析了2003—2016年4—6月华南前汛期降水日变化特征。据南海夏季风爆发时间,将降水分为爆发前后两个时段。华南地区主要存在两条大雨带,一个位于云贵高原至南岭山脉以南,另一个位于广东沿海地区。偏北雨带集中发生在后半夜至清晨时段,偏南雨带集中发生在中午至下午时段。南海夏季风爆发前后,降水量不存在明显相关性,相关系数较大时次位于中午至下午时段。前后期年降水标准差在0.5附近,变化幅度明显时段主要集中于凌晨至清晨。午后出现3 h多年降水量变化幅度最大值,最小时段为中午12时。降水量、降水频率和降水强度的经向分布特征明显且相似:降水量和降水频率在112 °E附近出现日变化转折,以西多出现不稳定夜雨,以东白天降水波动较大。在南海夏季风爆发前,降水特征主要表现为西部高频、南部高强,在清晨更多作用于对暴雨系统的增长;季风爆发后则表现为西北-东南南的高频率高强度降水形态,在傍晚更多作用于增加降水发生频率。      

Reconstruction of seasonal temperatures in Central Canada since A.D. 1700 and detection of the 18.6- and 22-year signals

This paper presents an attempt to summarize various sparse proxy series into continuous and exhaustive climatic data. Freeze-up and break-up dates, early meteorological records and tree-ring data have been combined for the Hudson Bay region and 22 continuous proxy series extending from 1700 to 1979 have been deduced. These new series in term provided the basis for a regressive reconstruction of six seasonal temperature series. Verification tests are successful mainly for the high frequencies components. The low frequencies variability is better estimated by a best analogues method. Both kinds of reconstructions have been combined to improve the results. The main characteristic of the reconstructions is a warming trend beginning at the end of the 19th century. Evidence for a beat wave resulting from 22-year solar and 18.6-year lunar nodal tidal cycles is presented. A phase analysis showed results consistent with other studies of summer temperature variability: temperature maxima correspond to sunspot minima ending an even cycle and are emphasized by the lunar maxima. Different phenomena are pointed out for autumn and winter temperatures: their maxima coincide to sunspot even maxima amplified by lunar minima. In spring, the transition season, these signals are not apparent.     

Influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the effects of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation, manifesting in the extratropical northern atmosphere

Using the longest and most reliable ozonesonde data sets grouped for four regions (Japan, Europe, as well as temperate and polar latitudes of Canada) the comparative analysis of regional responses of ozone, temperature, horizontal wind, tropopause and surface pressure on the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO effects), manifesting in opposite phases of the 11-year solar cycle (11-yr SC) was carried out. The impact of solar cycle is found to be the strongest at the Canadian Arctic, near one of two climatological centres of polar vortex, where in solar maximum conditions the QBO signals in ozone and temperature have much larger amplitudes, embrace greater range of heights, and are maximized much higher than those in solar minimum conditions. The strengthening of the temperature QBO effect during solar maxima can explain why correlation between the 11-yr SC and polar winter stratospheric temperature is reversed in the opposite QBO phases. At the border of polar vortex the 11-yr SC also modulates the QBO effect in zonal wind, strengthening the quasi-biennial modulation of polar vortex during solar maxima that is associated with strong negative correlation between stratospheric QBO signals in zonal wind and temperature. Above Japan the QBO effects of ozone, temperature, and zonal wind, manifesting in solar maxima reveal the downward phase dynamics, reminding similar feature of the zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere. Above Europe, the QBO effects in solar maxima reveal more similarity with those above Japan, while in solar minima with the effects obtained at the Canadian middle-latitude stations. It is revealed that the 11-yr SC influences regional QBO effects in tropopause height, tropopause temperature and surface pressure. The influence most distinctly manifest itself in tropopause characteristics above Japan. The results of the accompanying analysis of the QBO reference time series testify that in the period of 1965–2006 above 50-hPa level the duration of the QBO cycle in solar maxima is 1–3 months longer than in solar minima. The differences are more distinct at higher levels, but they are diminished with lengthening of the period.     

500hPa月平均高度相关的地理分布及其季节变化

本文分析了北半球３４年月平均５００ｈＰａ高度异常的月－月相关特征。结果表明，北半球高度异常的总体相关是大于零的，在副热带相关系数可达０．３以上，在中高纬度约为０．０－０．２，亚洲和北美地区中高纬的环流异常相关还显示出明显的季节变化特征，在冬夏季有最强的相关，春秋季相关最弱。     

Boundedness of Turbulent Temperature Probability Distributions,and their Relation to the Vertical Profile in the Convective Boundary Layer

Higher-order moments, minima and maxima of turbulent temperature and water vapour mixing ratio probability density functions measured with an eddy-covariance system near the ground were related to each other and to vertical boundary-layer profiles of the same scalars obtained through airborne soundings. The dependence of kurtosis on squared skewness showed a kurtosis intercept below the Gaussian expectation, suggesting a compression of the probability density function by the presence of natural boundaries. This hypothesis was corroborated by comparing actual minima and maxima of turbulent fluctuations to estimates obtained from the first four sample moments by fitting a four-parameter beta distribution. The most sharply defined boundaries were found for the minima of temperature datasets during the day, indicating that negative temperature fluctuations at the sensor are limited by the availability of lower temperatures in the boundary layer. By comparison to vertical profiles, it could be verified that the turbulent minimum of temperature near the ground is close to the minimum of potential temperature in the boundary layer. The turbulent minimum of water vapour mixing ratio was found to be equal to the mixing ratio at a height above the minimum of the temperature profile. This height roughly agrees with the top of the non-local unstable domain according to bulk Richardson number profiles. We conclude that turbulence statistics measured near the surface cannot be solely explained by local effects, but contain information about the whole boundary layer including the entrainment zone.     

Statistical modeling of extreme value behavior in North American tree-ring density series

Many analyses of the paleoclimate record include conclusions about extremes, with a focus on the unprecedented nature of recent climate events. While the use of extreme value theory is becoming common in the analysis of the instrumental climate record, applications of this framework to the spatio-temporal analysis of paleoclimate records remain limited. This article develops a Bayesian hierarchical model to investigate spatially varying trends and dependencies in the parameters characterizing the distribution of extremes of a proxy data set, and applies it to the site-wise decadal maxima and minima of a gridded network of temperature sensitive tree ring density time series over northern North America. The statistical analysis reveals significant spatial associations in the temporal trends of the location parameters of the generalized extreme value distributions: maxima are increasing as a function of time, with stronger increases in the north and east of North America; minima are significantly increasing in the west, possibly decreasing in the east, and exhibit no changes in the center of the region. Results indicate that the distribution varies as a function of both space and time, with tree ring density maxima becoming more extreme as a function of time and minima having diverging temporal trends, by spatial location. Results of this proxy-only analysis are a first step towards directly reconstructing extremal climate behavior, as opposed to mean climate behavior, by linking extremes in the proxy record to extremes in the instrumental record.     

热带地区云量日变化的气候特征

利用国际卫星云气候计划（ISCCP）1984—2003年共20年云量资料,统计分析了热带地区的云量日变化特征,研究结果表明,云量峰值时间和变化幅度在全球的分布都较为均匀,而海陆差异明显。高云和低云在变化机制上相对独立,其云量日变化并非同步。全球云量日变化由4类基本形式组成,分别为洋面高云型、陆面高云型、洋面低云型和陆面低云型。高云日变化与地表辐射加热状况密切相关,其形式在洋面和陆面类似,均为早晨出现云量最小值而午后到达云量峰值。相比于洋面,陆面高云的峰值在夜间持续时间较长,可发展至更为稳定深厚的云系。低云多在局地5时附近出现云量峰值,18时左右达到云量极小值,其中陆面低云在12时出现第二峰值。     

云微物理过程对暴雨影响的数值试验

本文利用美国科罗拉多州立大学95年完成的RAMS（Regional atmosphere Modeling system)3B版模式，通过冷、暖云两种方案，以常规报文资料为初值对1998年7月20－21日发生在湖北地区的特大暴雨过程进行了模拟分析，初步试验表明模式具有模拟此次强暴雨过程的能力，20日20时至21日20时24小时降水分别为304mm和206mm，最大雨强分别为48mm/hr和31mm/hr，降水中位于鄂东地区，与实况基本吻合。进一步分析表明聚合体粒子在此次降水中占有主要地位，冰相粒子的加入对降水有重要的增幅作用。