Spatial analysis of rockfall activity, bounce heights and geomorphic changes over the last 50 years – A case study using dendrogeomorphology

Tree-ring series have been used to reconstruct 50 years of rockfall behavior on a slope near Saas Balen (Swiss Alps). A total of 796 cores and 141 cross sections from 191 severely injured conifer trees (Larix decidua Mill., Picea abies (L.) Karst. and Pinus cembra L.), combined with a series of aerial photographs, were used to investigate the evolution of the forest stand so as (i) to reconstruct past rockfall rates; (ii) to analyze the spatial behavior of maximum bounce heights; and (iii) to analyze the spatial comportment of rockfall activity over the last five decades.Tree-ring analysis permitted the reconstruction of the age distribution at the study site; results were in perfect agreement with the afforestation process shown in the aerial photographs. The oldest are located in the lower, central part of the study site; the youngest individuals at its uppermost lateral boundaries. Reconstructed rockfall rates reveal strong interannual variations and single event years with increased activity, namely in 1960/1961 and 1995. Spatial analysis of the maximum bounce heights indicate highest values at the lateral boundaries and lowest heights in the lower central part of the forest stand, where a big boulder seems to shield trees growing below it. The spatial analysis of past rockfall activity shows high active zones at the uppermost north-facing boundaries of the forest and least active zones in the lowermost central part of the studied stand. The high rockfall activity at the slope is expressed by a mean rockfall rate of > 1 event m^− 1 y^− 1.     

Combining field and modelling techniques to assess rockfall dynamics on a protection forest hillslope in the European Alps

Adequate management of a mountain forest that protects downslope areas against impacts of rockfall requires insight into the dynamics of the hillslope environment. Therefore, we applied a combined approach, using field and modelling techniques, to assess the determining factors for rockfall source areas, rockfall tracks and rockfall runout zones on a forested slope in mountainous terrain. The first objective of this study was to understand why rockfall occurs in the study area. The second objective was to translate the knowledge obtained in the field into a model that simulates rockfall dynamics on a forested slope realistically. The third objective was to assess which hillslope characteristics primarily determine the distribution of active rockfall tracks. To achieve these objectives, we made a geomorphological map of the whole study area, and we measured the major discontinuity planes in the bedrock that are exposed in the rockfall source areas. Furthermore, a test site for simulation modelling within the larger study area was defined in which both a forest and a hillslope inventory were carried out. The available data and our developed rockfall simulation model allowed us to assess the slope characteristics that mainly determine the distribution of areas affected by rockfall. We found that in decreasing order of importance, both standing and felled trees, the surface roughness and rockfall resistant shrubs primarily determine the distribution of rockfall-affected areas. Simulation tests without a forest cover produced similar rockfall runout zones as fossil rockfall events identified in the field. We believe that the combined field and modelling approach is a prerequisite for understanding how forests can protect against rockfall.     

Frost weathering and rockwall erosion in the southeastern Swiss Alps: Long-term (1994–2006) observations

Rates and processes of frost weathering in the Alps were investigated by visual observations of intensively shattered rocks, continuous monitoring of frost wedging and rock temperatures in bedrock and measurements of rockfall activity. Rapid frost weathering of hard-intact rocks occurs along lakes and streams where seasonal freezing promotes ice segregation in the rock. Otherwise, rocks require pre-existing weakness or a long exposure period for intensively shattered. Automated monitoring shows that crack opening occurs at three scales, including small opening accompanying short-term frost cycles, slightly larger movements during seasonal freezing and occasional large opening originating from refreezing of snow-melt water during seasonal thawing. The opening events require at least partial water saturation in the crack. The repetition of crack opening (frost wedging) results in permanent opening and finally debris dislocation. Debris collections below fractured rockwalls show that pebble falls occur at an average rate of about 0.1 mm a^− 1 with significant spatial and inter-annual variations. Occasional large boulder falls significantly raise the rockwall erosion rates, controlled by such factors as the joint distribution in the bedrock, repetition of annual freeze–thaw cycles and extraordinary summer thaw.     

Modelling Transient Ground Surface Temperatures of Past Rockfall Events: Towards a Better Understanding of Failure Mechanisms in Changing Periglacial Environments

Despite the rising interest in mountain permafrost due to climatic changes and a noticed increase of registered rockfall events in the European Alps and other mountain ranges, little is known about transient thermal conditions in the detachment areas of rockfalls. Temperature conditions prior to the rockfall events of 144 past events in the European Alps were modelled with a physically based ground temperature model. To minimise the impact that uncertainty has on interpretations, only relative values were used, that is, percentiles obtained from cumulative distribution functions of the modelled ground surface temperatures from the beginning of the meteorological measurement series up to the event dates. Our results suggest that small and mid‐sized rockfalls (volumes up to 100 000 m³) from high elevation occurred mainly during short‐term periods of unusually high temperatures. This was neither found to be a result of the seasonal distribution (most analysed events in higher elevations occurred from July to September) nor of the longer‐term temporal distribution (most analysed events occurred after 2000) only. Plausible explanations are either a destabilisation related to advective thaw or failure due to stress redistribution caused by large temperature variations. Large deep‐seated rock slope failures (≥100 000 m³) in high elevation occurred all year round.     

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL ASPECTS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE MOJAVE AND COLORADO DESERTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, 1973–1994

Although dust storms rarely occur in southern California's deserts, blowing dust often reduces visibility, and large spatial and temporal variability in the frequency of blowing dust occurs throughout the region. On average only 1.3 dust storms occur in the study area each year. The annual average number of dust events (visibility <11 km) is 18.0, with the Coachella Valley being dustiest region, averaging 37.8 dust events each year. Mean annual frequencies of dust events for 1973–1994 are mapped, showing a core of activity centered over the Imperial/Coachella Valley region, with fewer dust events around the periphery of the study area. Most stations show a coherent temporal pattern of dust frequency during the period 1973–1994, with the mid-1970s experiencing the most dust. Blowing dust generally was absent from all stations during 1979–1983, 1987–1989, and 1992–1994. The mid-1980s were moderately dusty and 1990–1991 saw a return to very dusty conditions, possibly resulting from below-normal precipitation and increased anthropogenic disturbances. Dust events in the Mojave Desert characteristically occur during the winter to spring months (February-May), associated with dry frontal activity, and are largely absent during the dry summer months. The Colorado Desert experiences a similar seasonal distribution of dust events, but has more summer events, usually associated with convective thunderstorms. Frequencies of blowing dust have weak, but statistically significant, correlations with mean annual and antecedent precipitation, suggesting that complex processes control dust emission. [Key words: blowing dust, dust storms, Mojave Desert, Colorado Desert, wind erosion.]     

Spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation in Haihe River basin, 1958–2007

The seasonal variability and spatial distribution of precipitation are the main cause of flood and drought events. The study of spatial distribution and temporal trend of precipitation in river basins has been paid more and more attention. However, in China, the precipitation data are measured by weather stations (WS) of China Meteorological Administration and hydrological rain gauges (RG) of national and local hydrology bureau. The WS data usually have long record with fewer stations, while the RG data usually have short record with more stations. The consistency and correlation of these two data sets have not been well understood. In this paper, the precipitation data from 30 weather stations for 1958–2007 and 248 rain gauges for 1995–2004 in the Haihe River basin are examined and compared using linear regression, 5-year moving average, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Z test and F test methods. The results show that the annual precipitation from both WS and RG records are normally distributed with minor difference in the mean value and variance. It is statistically feasible to extend the precipitation of RG by WS data sets. Using the extended precipitation data, the detailed spatial distribution of the annual and seasonal precipitation amounts as well as their temporal trends are calculated and mapped. The various distribution maps produced in the study show that for the whole basin the precipitation of 1958–2007 has been decreasing except for spring season. The decline trend is significant in summer, and this trend is stronger after the 1980s. The annual and seasonal precipitation amounts and changing trends are different in different regions and seasons. The precipitation is decreasing from south to north, from coastal zone to inland area.     

Forest ecosystem health assessment and analysis in China

Based on more than 300 forest sample plots surveying data and forestry statistical data, remote sensing information from the NOAA AVHRR database and the daily meteorological data of 300 stations, we selected vigor, organization and resilience as the indicators to assess large-scale forest ecosystem health in China and analyzed the spatial pattern of forest ecosystem health and influencing factors. The results of assessment indicated that the spatial pattern of forest ecosystem health showed a decreasing trend along latitude gradients and longitude gradients. The healthy forests are mainly distributed in natural forests, tropical rainforests and seasonal rainforests; secondarily orderly in northeast national forest zone, subtropical forest zonation and southwest forest zonation; while the unhealthy forests were mainly located in warm temperate zone and Xinjiang-Mongolia forest zone. The coefficient of correction between Forest Ecosystem Health Index (FEHI) and annual average precipitation was 0.58 (p<0.01), while the coefficient of correlation between FEHI and annual mean temperatures was 0.49 (p<0.01), which identified that the precipitation and temperatures affect the pattern of FEHI, and the precipitation's effect was stronger than the temperature's. We also measured the correlation coefficient between FEHI and NPP, biodiversity and resistance, which were 0.64, 0.76 and 0.81 (p<0.01) respectively. The order of effect on forest ecosystem health was vigor, organization and resistance.     

1960―2012年安徽省降水和气温变化特征及其与ENSO的相关性分析

使用安徽省1960―2012年气温与降水资料,采用线性倾向估计法、反距离加权插值法、最小二乘法和相关分析法分析安徽省近53年来气温和降水的时空变化特征及其与ENSO的关系。结果表明：1）近53年来安徽省年降水量和年平均气温分别以0.93 mm/a和0.02℃/a的倾向率呈增加趋势;季节变化表明,夏季和冬季降水量呈明显的增加趋势,而春、秋两季则呈减小趋势;四季气温均有所升高,春季气温增幅最大。2）不同季节降水量的年代际变化特征并不明显,降水主要集中在夏季,约占全年降水量的45.95%;与降水量年代际变化不同,年均温和四季气温的年代际变化呈波动上升趋势。3）降水存在显著的空间差异,夏、冬两季降水量由北向南减小幅度逐渐增大,春季降水量由北向南增加幅度逐渐增大;气温的空间变化并无一定规律,但宿州是四季以及全年增温幅度最大的地区。4）不同时间尺度的降水和气温均与Nino 3.4区海表温度距平和南方涛动均存在一定的相关性,其中3、9和11月的降水与Nino 3.4区海表温度距平以及南方涛动有较为显著的相关性,而在9月,气温受Nino 3.4区海表温度距平和南方涛动影响较显著;Nino 3.4区海表温度距平对年降水量和年均温的影响更明显。5）近53年来,El Nino事件和La Nina事件的出现频数分别为16和15次,La Nina事件对降水的增加的影响强于El Nino事件,而El Nino和La Nina事件对气温的影响均不显著。     

TEMPORAL STATISTICS: AN APPLICATION IN SNOWFALL CLIMATOLOGY

A method is introduced for the analysis of temporal distributions of climatic data based on a comparison of a variable's frequency distribution in the time dimension to a standard bell-shaped curve through time. The following statistics are defined using mean monthly snowfall data: the temporal mean, which is the average time for accumulation of 50% of the annual snowfall total; the temporal standard deviation, which characterizes the mean annual spread of snowfall accumulation about the mean; temporal skewness, which characterizes the symmetry of the annual snowfall distribution; temporal kurtosis, which measures the peakedness of the annual distribution; and temporal correlation, which quantifies the degree of association between two temporal distributions. Analysis of snowfall data demonstrates the utility of temporal statistics for quantifying temporal and geographic variations in a climatic variable's seasonal distribution. [Key words: snowfall, climatology, temporal statistics.]     

森林生态系统健康评价指标在中国的应用

1IntroductionDuring recent two decades, the idea of "health" as an appropriate paradigm to assess the condition of ecosystems, is watchword of contemporary ecosystem management. The phrase "forest ecosystem health" has been used with increasing frequency in the context of forestry and natural resource management. Many scientists give the definitions from socio-economic and ecological perspectives (Rapport, 1992; USDA Forest Service, 1993; O'Laughlin, 1996; Allen, 2001). Forest health is a …     

中国矮曲林的分布特征及生态意义

矮曲林是山地森林带在严酷的自然环境影响下发展演化而成的特殊植物群落,对中国山地植被和垂直带的研究具有重要的地理和生态意义。本文选择20世纪30年代以来在国内外文献中发表的52个矮曲林数据,结合Worldclim气候数据等,对中国矮曲林的类型和分布及其相应的气候条件进行了研究。结果表明：①中国的矮曲林主要包括山顶苔藓矮曲林、寒温性偃松矮曲林和岳桦矮曲林3类;其中,山顶苔藓矮曲林主要分布于秦巴山区以南的山地,而偃松矮曲林和岳桦矮曲林主要分布于东北地区。②山顶苔藓矮曲林主要由亚热带、热带地区的常绿阔叶林在山顶或山脊受山顶效应等的影响演化而来;而寒温性矮曲林主要由寒温性针叶林或针阔混交林在山顶或山脊条件下长期演化而来。山顶苔藓矮曲林自东向西随地势升高,其分布的海拔高度也逐渐升高;寒温性偃松矮曲林和岳桦矮曲林分布高度自南向北逐渐降低。③矮曲林分布在气候林线以下的山地,其气候条件足以支撑山地森林的发育,但由于山顶效应的存在(如强风、气候干冷或湿冷及土壤贫瘠等),只能发育矮曲林而非垂直地带性的山地森林。④中国东南部的很多山地高度小于3000 m,山顶效应明显,矮曲林广泛发育,造成了假林线的普遍存在。     

中国内陆热带地区近40年气候变化特征

用西双版纳6个气象站40余年观测资料,探讨中国内陆热带地区气候变化特征及趋势。结果表明:西双版纳地区的平均气温、平均最低气温、平均最高气温总体上呈逐年增暖的趋势,其中平均气温上升率0.016 5～0.033 4℃/a,平均最低气温上升率0.008 6～0.038 7℃/a,平均最高气温上升率-0.001 4～0.018 6℃/a;降水长期变化特征则较复杂,规律不如气温明显,但总体趋势减少,年降水量变化主要决定于雨季降水量变化;相对湿度呈现逐年降低趋势。说明该地区气候向干热型转变。     

2007—2020年西藏草面温度时空分布特征

利用2007—2020年西藏38个气象站点平均草面温度（简称草温）、平均气温、平均地表温度、云量、降水量等观测资料,采用气候统计诊断方法分析了西藏草面温度的时空分异特征及其影响因素,以期科学研究当地草地生态系统和开展专业气象服务。结果表明：西藏年平均草温呈自东南向西北递减的分布。草温与海拔高度存在显著的负相关,海拔高度每升高100 m,季平均草温降低0.44~0.70 ℃,年平均草温降低0.58 ℃;与纬度有着显著的曲线关系,29.3°N以南（北）地区,随着纬度增加,草温随之升高（降低）。各站草温呈一峰一谷的日变化特征,日最低值出现在07:00—08:00（北京时间）,日最高值均出现在14:00;草温月平均最低值都出现在1月,月平均最高值出现在6月或7月;76%的站点草温的变化为夏季>春季>秋季>冬季的气候特征。西藏草温年较差为21.4 ℃,较气温年较差偏大3.1 ℃;草温日较差达35.7 ℃,远高于气温日较差,偏大21.6 ℃。草温与气温之差以夏季最大,其次是春季、冬季两者比较接近;草温与地表温度之差以春季最大,夏季次之,冬季最小。在空间分布上,月平均草温与气温、地表温度均呈显著的正相关,与平均风速、积雪日呈显著的负相关;积雪深度对草温的影响,除冬季外二者存在显著的负相关;大部分月份平均草温与总云量、低云量、降水量的关系不显著。86.8%的站点5—9月平均逐小时草温与降水量存在显著的负相关关系。     

基于REOF-EEMD的西南地区气候变化区域分异特征

西南地区是全球变化区域响应的特殊地区,探究其气候变化区域分异特征具有重要的科学意义。文中选用REOF方法开展研究区气温和降水变化特征的空间分区,借助EEMD与BG分割算法等方法细致辨析了不同气候分区的气候演变特征。结果显示：① 西南地区年均温和年均降水变化均可划分为3个亚区,各自的空间界限高度相似,但降水Ⅱ、Ⅲ区的界限更偏南。② 20世纪50年代以来各气温亚区的年均温显著升高,川渝气温变化与全球变暖同步,黔西、黔中、滇北散布若干点状冷区。各降水亚区的时空差异明显,相较Ⅲ区,Ⅰ、Ⅱ区年均降水的波动性及年代际变化的差异更显著。③ ENSO事件对研究区气候变化的影响深远,不同气温、降水亚区对其的响应不尽相同。④ 不同气温亚区年均温序列突变点的收敛性较强,大致发生在1997年前后。不同降水亚区年均降水序列突变点的收敛性较弱。⑤ 各气温亚区年均温增加的持续性较强,Ⅱ、Ⅲ区尤甚。降水Ⅰ、Ⅱ区降水变化趋势不甚明显且具有一定的随机性,Ⅰ区的可能呈减速趋缓的减湿趋势,Ⅱ区的可能出现弱度减湿趋势,Ⅲ区降水趋于弱增。     

基于SPEI指数的近53年河南省干旱时空变化特征

干旱在中国发生较为频繁,对农作物的影响较大。基于1961-2013年实测气象资料,利用标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）定量分析了河南省不同时间尺度干旱发生频率和发生强度,揭示了该地区干旱发生的时空演变特征及干旱发生的原因。结果表明：SPEI值能较好地反映河南省干旱的变化特征;随着时间尺度的减小,SPEI值波动幅度增加,干旱发生频率增加。近53年河南省干旱发生频率总体呈上升趋势,且各地区之间分布不均匀。周口地区发生频率最高,达35%以上;豫中和豫西地区最低,为26%左右。四季中以春、夏两季干旱发生最为严重,其次为秋季,冬季最弱。在年际变化方面,1966-1968年、1998-2000年和2011-2013年发生了大范围的持续干旱。干旱发生强度呈现豫北和豫西偏东地区高,豫东和豫南北部地区低特点;干旱发生强度最强的地区为安阳,为22.18%,最弱的地区为驻马店,为16.60%。     

基于树轮地貌学的山洪研究进展

山洪是中国主要的自然灾害之一,严重威胁山区人民生命财产与工程建设安全。针对山洪已发展了多种多样的研究手段,但多集中于过去几十年的时间段内。树轮地貌学方法作为研究历史山洪事件的有效手段之一,在世界范围内被广泛应用。利用树轮中的生长干扰信息,可以对山洪事件进行精确定年,重建无记录或少记录地区内山洪发生的频率、大小和空间分布特征等,根据伤疤的高度或应用水力模型则可以定量重建山洪的流量大小。随着树轮地貌学方法和技术的逐渐成熟,研究趋向于探讨山洪的驱动机制、更大空间尺度山洪的规律性等,具有广阔的应用前景,但是基于树轮的山洪研究工作在国内还未见报道。论文对树轮地貌学应用于山洪研究的发展过程进行了系统回顾,对研究进展进行了简要概述,最后讨论该研究领域的潜力及局限性,以期为在国内进一步开展相关工作提供参考信息。     

森林生态系统健康评价指标及其在中国的应用

根据1995～1998年的遥感资料、1980～1997年全国气象资料以及1949～2001年的森林统计资料以及全国300多个森林样地调查资料，在生态系统健康理论基础上，以活力(V)、组织结构(D)和恢复力（R)为评价指标，对中国森林生态系统的健康状况进行了评价，并对中国森林生态系统健康的空间格局进行了分析。我国森林生态系统健康指数高的区域主要分布在热带雨林季雨林以及天然林分布的区域，而蒙新林区和暖温带林区的健康指数较低，且由南到北逐渐降低。温度和降水对森林生态系统健康的空间格局有较大的影响。通过生态系统健康指数与活力、组织结构和抵抗力的相关分析可知，抵抗力对生态系统健康影响最大，其次是组织结构，影响力最小的是活力。     

我国高空风速的气候学特征

利用全国119个探空站1980~2006年13个等压面和地面附近的月平均风速资料,分析了不同高度年、季节平均风速的气候学特征。结果表明,全国平均200hPa以下风速随高度增加而增加,200hPa~30hPa之间风速随高度增加而降低,30hPa以上风速随高度增加而再呈增加趋势;春、秋季平均风速随高度变化与年平均相似,但冬、夏季的垂直分布差异明显;700hPa及其以上最大风速出现在1月,最小风速在7月或8月;850hPa和地面最大风速发生在4月;对流层风速年较差从下向上增加,在200hPa附近风速年较差最大。我国地面风速在东、西部地区较大,中部地区较小;500hPa年平均风速分布呈西低东高态势,最大中心出现在辽东半岛东部;200hPa年平均风速在江淮地区出现高值中心;500hPa冬季最大风速区在大陆南部,夏季北移并向西扩展;200hPa各季强风速区基本呈东西走向的带状分布,其中春季在江淮地区,夏季移至西北,秋季位于黄淮地区,冬季位置最南。     

晋北沙漠化地区1980-2014年的气候变化

气候变化对土地沙漠化有一定驱动作用。以晋北沙漠化地区为研究区域,对1980-2014年影响该地区土地沙漠化的气候因子进行分析,采用气候变化倾向率、突变检验、滑动t检验、GIS空间模拟和插值等方法来探讨气候变化时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）1980-2014年,晋北沙漠化地区春季升温速率较大,气温整体呈缓慢上升趋势,年均气温从1980年6.37℃升高到2014年8.01℃,空间上呈现出由两边向中心逐渐减弱的趋势,并且在1990年存在明显增温突变,春夏季气温突变明显;（2）晋北沙漠化地区秋季降水增长幅度最为明显,年降水量整体呈现升高趋势,年降水量的倾向率均为正值,年降水量从1980年357.83mm升高到2014年403.82mm,降水量处于非突变的自然波动状态,稳定性较强,在空间上差异明显,由东北向西南逐渐增加;（3）年均风速呈逐年减小的趋势,春季风速从1980年3.25m·s^-1降低到2014年2.48m·s^-1,减小趋势最为明显,在空间上呈现由西北至东南逐渐增大的趋势。     

Using a decadal diatom sediment trap record to unravel seasonal processes important for the formation of the sedimentary diatom signal

Sediment trap studies and high frequency monitoring are of great importance to develop a deeper understanding of how seasonal environmental processes are imprinted in sediment signal formation. We collected whole year diatom assemblages from 2002 to 2014 with a sequential sediment trap from a varved boreal lake (Nylandssjön, Sweden) together with environmental and limnological parameters, and compared them with the corresponding diatom record of the annual laminated sediment. Our data set indicates a large year-to-year variability of diatom succession and abundance patterns, which is well reflected in the varved sediments. Specifically, Cyclotella glomerata dominated the annual sediment trap record (as well as in the corresponding sediment varves) in years with warmer air temperatures in March/April, and Asterionella formosa dominated the annual sediment assemblages as a consequence of years characterized by higher runoff before lake over-turn. Years succeeding forest clearance in the lake catchment showed marked increase in diatom and sediment flux. The DCA scores of the yearly diatom trap assemblages clearly resemble the lake’s thermal structure, which indicates that the relative abundance of major taxa seems primarily controlled by the timing of seasonal environmental events, such as above-average winter air temperature and/or autumn runoff and the current thermal structure of the lake. The high seasonal variability between environmental drivers in combination with the physical limnology leaves us with several possible scenarios leading to either an A. formosa versus C. glomerata dominated annual diatom sediment signal. With this study we highlight that short-term environmental events and seasonal limnological conditions are of major importance for interpreting annual sediment signals.