An application of parametric statistical tests to well-yield data from carbonates of central Pennsylvania

Variation in productivity, yield in gallons per minute per foot of drawndown per foot of saturated thickness, of 80 water wells located in folded and faulted carbonate rocks and shales of Cambro-Ordovician age in central Pennsylvania, was related to six hydroecologic factors. Parametric and nonparametric statistical techniques were applied and results of One Factor Analysis of Variance and Student t-test are presented. Productivity values were transformed to common logarithms, and it was assumed that a log-normal model would reasonably describe the variation in productivity especially as the sample size was increased. These tests showed that the variations in number of fracture traces, rock type, dip of bedrock strata and topography were significant and variation in depth to water table was not significant in accounting for variation in well yield. Student t-test showed that anticlinal wells were significantly different from synclinal wells. However, wells in the same rock type but different structural settings were not significantly different. This shows that variations in rock type and number of fracture traces are more important than other structural variations. Both parametric and nonparametric tests gave identical results, which justifies the use of parametric tests which require normally distributed data.     

A Single Packer Method for Characterizing Water Contributing Fractures in Crystalline Bedrock Wells

Water levels and water quality of open borehole wells in fractured bedrock are flow-weighted averages that are a function of the hydraulic heads and transmissivities of water contributing fractures, properties that are rarely known. Without such knowledge using water levels and water quality data from fractured bedrock wells to assess groundwater flow and contaminant conditions can be highly misleading. This study demonstrates a cost-effective single packer method to determine the hydraulic heads and transmissivities of water contributing fracture zones in crystalline bedrock wells. The method entails inflating a pipe plug to isolate sections of an open borehole at different depths and monitoring changes in the water level with time. At each depth, the change in water level with time was used to determine the sum of fracture transmissivities above the packer and then to solve for individual fracture transmissivity. Steady-state wellbore heads along with the transmissivities were used to determine individual fracture heads using the weighted average head equation. The method was tested in five wells in crystalline bedrock located at the University of Connecticut in Storrs. The single packer head and transmissivity results were found to agree closely with those determined using conventional logging methods and the dissolved oxygen alteration method. The method appears to be a simple and cost-effective alternative in obtaining important information on flow conditions in fractured crystalline bedrock wells.     

Electric-hydraulic conductivity correlation in fractured crystalline bedrock: Central Landfill, Rhode Island, USA

Remote sensing and geoelectrical methods were used to find water-bearing fractures in the Scituate granite under the Central Landfill of Rhode Island. These studies were necessary to evaluate the integrity of the sanitary landfill and for planning safe landfill extensions. The most useful results were obtained with fracture trace analysis using Landsat and SLAR imagery in combination with ground-based resistivity measurements using Schlumberger vertical electrical soundings based on the assumption of horizontally layered strata. Test borings and packer tests confirmed, in the presence of a lineament and low bedrock resistivity, the probable existence of high bedrock fracture density and high average hydraulic conductivity. However, not every lineament was found to be associated with high fracture density and high hydraulic conductivity. Lineaments alone are not a reliable basis for characterising a landfill site as being affected by fractured bedrock. Horizontal fractures were found in borings located away from lineaments. High values of hydraulic conductivity were correlated with low bedrock resistivities. Bedrock resistivities between 60 and 700 Ω m were associated with average hydraulic conductivities between 4 and 60 cm/day. In some cases very low resistivities were confined to the upper part of the bedrock where the hydraulic conductivity was very large. These types of fractures apparently become narrower in aperture with depth. Bedrock zones having resistivities greater than 1000 Ω m showed, without exception, no flow to the test wells. Plots of bedrock resistivity versus the average hydraulic conductivity indicate that the resistivity decreases with increasing hydraulic conductivity. This relationship is inverse to that found in most unconsolidated sediments and is useful for estimating the hydraulic conductivity in groundwater surveys in fractured bedrock. In appropriate settings such as the Central Landfill site in New England, this electric-hydraulic correlation relationship, supplemented by lineament trace analysis, can be used effectively to estimate the hydraulic conductivity in bedrock from only a limited number of resistivity depth soundings and test wells.     

Initial yield to depth relation for water wells drilled into crystalline bedrock--Pinardville quadrangle, New Hampshire

A model is proposed to explain the statistical relations between the mean initial water well yields from eight time increments from 1984 to 1998 for wells drilled into the crystalline bedrock aquifer system in the Pinardville area of southern New Hampshire and the type of bedrock, mean well depth, and mean well elevation. Statistical analyses show that the mean total yield of drilling increments is positively correlated with mean total well depth and mean well elevation. In addition, the mean total well yield varies with rock type from a minimum of 46.9 L/min (12.4 gpm) in the Damon Pond granite to a maximum of 74.5 L/min (19.7 gpm) in the Permian pegmatite and granite unit. Across the eight drilling increments that comprise 211 wells each, the percentages of very low-yield wells (1.9 L/min [0.5 gpm] or less) and high-yield wells (151.4 L/min [40 gpm] or more) increased, and those of intermediate-yield wells decreased. As housing development progressed during the 1984 to 1998 interval, the mean depth of the wells and their elevations increased, and the mix of percentages of the bedrock types drilled changed markedly. The proposed model uses a feed-forward mechanism to explain the interaction between the increasing mean elevation, mean well depth, and percentages of very low-yielding wells and the mean well yield. The increasing percentages of very low-yielding wells through time and the economics of the housing market may control the system that forces the mean well depths, percentages of high-yield wells, and mean well yields to increase. The reason for the increasing percentages of very low-yield wells is uncertain, but the explanation is believed to involve the complex structural geology and tectonic history of the Pinardville quadrangle.     

Topographic stress and rock fracture: a two‐dimensional numerical model for arbitrary topography and preliminary comparison with borehole observations

Theoretical calculations indicate that elastic stresses induced by surface topography may be large enough in some landscapes to fracture rocks, which in turn could influence slope stability, erosion rates, and bedrock hydrologic properties. These calculations typically have involved idealized topographic profiles, with few direct comparisons of predicted topographic stresses and observed fractures at specific field sites. We use a numerical model to calculate the stresses induced by measured topographic profiles and compare the calculated stress field with fractures observed in shallow boreholes. The model uses a boundary element method to calculate the stress distribution beneath an arbitrary topographic profile in the presence of ambient tectonic stress. When applied to a topographic profile across the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory in central Pennsylvania, the model predicts where shear fractures would occur based on a Mohr–Coulomb criterion, with considerable differences in profiles of stresses with depth beneath ridgetops and valley floors. We calculate the minimum cohesion required to prevent shear failure, C_min, as a proxy for the potential for fracturing or reactivation of existing fractures. We compare depth profiles of C_min with structural analyses of image logs from four boreholes located on the valley floor, and find that fracture abundance declines sharply with depth in the uppermost 15 m of the bedrock, consistent with the modeled profile of C_min. In contrast, C_min increases with depth at comparable depths below ridgetops, suggesting that ridgetop fracture abundance patterns may differ if topographic stresses are indeed important. Thus, the present results are consistent with the hypothesis that topography can influence subsurface rock fracture patterns and provide a basis for further observational tests. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A groundwater recharge field study: site characterization and initial results

A field study site was installed in east‐central Pennsylvania to examine processes controlling groundwater recharge. It was instrumented to monitor climatic inputs, soil water dynamics and groundwater response. Characterization of the layered fractured bedrock underlying the site by rock coring, seismic surveys and interval packer testing showed consistencies between layer depths, fracture frequencies, seismic velocities and hydraulic conductivities. Monthly summaries of rainfall and percolate over two years showed that percolate rates were generally high and closely related to precipitation during the dormant season. During the growing season, however, the relationship became erratic with large variabilities occurring between individual lysimeter measurements. Eight dormant season rainfall events were examined in detail. Smaller events produced similar responses from 1 m deep percolate lysimeters. Approximately 10–15 mm of rain was required to initiate percolate, with the time delay in response dependent on how long it took this depth to accumulate; 5 to 6 mm of the rain was retained in storage, with the remainder becoming percolate. Larger rains, from 30–110 mm, caused correspondingly larger depths of percolate and larger water table responses, but generally similar patterns of site response. Groundwater at the site was typically about 6 m below the land surface during the dormant season. It responded 1–2 hours after the onset of percolate, and reached its maximum elevation anywhere from 4 to 16 hours after that, even though percolate was still occurring. Based on causative depth of recharge and amount of water level rise in wells, the specific yield of the aquifer was found to be of the order of 0·01. This value is characteristic of fracture geometry rather than matrix properties of the bedrock. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating Effective Porosity in Bedrock Aquifers

Flow in many bedrock aquifers is through fracture networks. Point to point tracer tests using applied tracers provide a direct measure of time of travel and are most useful for determining effective porosity. Calculated values from these tests are typically between 10⁻⁴ and 10⁻² (0.01% to 1%), with these low values indicating preferential flow through fracture and channel networks. Tracer tests are not commonly used in site investigations, and specific yield is often used as a proxy for effective porosity. The most popular methods have used centrifuge measurements, water table fluctuations, pumping tests, and packer tests. Specific yield varies substantially with the testing method. No method is as reliable as tracer testing for providing estimates of effective porosity, but all methods provide complementary insights on aquifer structure. Temporal and spatial scaling effects suggest that bedrock aquifers have hierarchical structures, with a network of more permeable fractures and channels, which are connected to less permeable fractures and to the matrix. Consequences of the low effective porosities include groundwater velocities that often exceed 100 m/d and more frequent microbial contamination than in aquifers in unconsolidated sediments. The large uncertainty over the magnitude of effective porosity in bedrock aquifers makes it an important parameter to determine in studies where time of travel is of interest.     

Vertical Delineation of Contamination in Fractured Bedrock Aquifer

The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection's Technical Regulations require the horizontal and vertical delineation of contamination. Monitor wells screened at increasingly deeper intervals are used to delineate vertical contamination. In New Jersey, the open interval in a bedrock well cannot exceed 7.6 m. Since contamination has been found at depths as great as 91.4 m in a production well in the study area, it would be prohibitively expensive to install monitor wells with 7.6 m open holes at ever-increasing depths until no contamination was found. Isolation of discrete zones in boreholes using pneumatic packers was implemented at a site in north central New Jersey. Ground water samples were collected from selected 6.1 m sections of boreholes drilled into fractured bedrock at three locations on the property and one offsite location. The ground water samples were analyzed in a field laboratory. The analytical results were used to determine the vertical extent of gasoline-related compounds dissolved in the ground water on the property and offsite. These compounds include benzene, ethylbenzene, methyl tertiary butyl ether, toluene, and xylenes. The four boreholes were converted into bedrock monitor wells. The intake interval for each of the wells was selected through evaluation of the vertical distribution of contaminants as determined from analytical results obtained from a field laboratory located onsite. Three wells are used for the recovery of contaminated ground water. The recovered water will be treated at the onsite air-stripping unit. The fourth well is used to chemically and hydraulically monitor the progress of the ground water recovery program.     

Site characterization in densely fractured dolomite: comparison of methods

One of the challenges in characterizing fractured-rock aquifers is determining whether the equivalent porous medium approximation is valid at the problem scale. Detailed hydrogeologic characterization completed at a small study site in a densely fractured dolomite has yielded an extensive data set that was used to evaluate the utility of the continuum and discrete-fracture approaches to aquifer characterization. There are two near-vertical sets of fractures at the site; near-horizontal bedding-plane partings constitute a third fracture set. Eighteen boreholes, including five coreholes, were drilled to a depth of approximately 10.6 m. Borehole geophysical logs revealed several laterally extensive horizontal fractures and dissolution zones. Flowmeter and short-interval packer testing identified which of these features were hydraulically important. A monitoring system, consisting of short-interval piezometers and multilevel samplers, was designed to monitor four horizontal fractures and two dissolution zones. The resulting network consisted of >70 sampling points and allowed detailed monitoring of head distributions in three dimensions. Comparison of distributions of hydraulic head and hydraulic conductivity determined by these two approaches suggests that even in a densely fractured-carbonate aquifer, a characterization approach using traditional long-interval monitoring wells is inadequate to characterize ground water movement for the purposes of regulatory monitoring or site remediation. In addition, traditional multiwell pumping tests yield an average or bulk hydraulic conductivity that is not adequate for predicting rapid ground water travel times through the fracture network, and the pumping test response does not appear to be an adequate tool for assessing whether the porous medium approximation is valid.     

An Unsteady State Tracer Method for Characterizing Fractures in Bedrock Wells

Evaluating contaminants impacting wells in fractured crystalline rock requires knowledge of the individual fractures contributing water. This typically involves using a sequence of tools including downhole geophysics, flow meters, and straddle packers. In conjunction with each other these methods are expensive, time consuming, and can be logistically difficult to implement. This study demonstrates an unsteady state tracer method as a cost‐effective alternative for gathering fracture information in wells. The method entails introducing tracer dye throughout the well, inducing fracture flow into the well by conducting a slug test and then profiling the tracer concentration in the well to locate water contributing fractures where the dye has been diluted. By monitoring the development of the dilution zones within the wellbore with time, the transmissivity and the hydraulic head of the water contributing fractures can be determined. Ambient flow conditions and the contaminant concentration within the fractures can also be determined from the tracer dilution. This method was tested on a large physical model well and a bedrock well. The model well was used to test the theory underlying the method and to refine method logistics. The approach located the fracture and generated transmissivity values that were in excellent agreement with those calculated by slug testing. For the bedrock well tested, two major active fractures were located. Fracture location and ambient well conditions matched results from conventional methods. Estimates of transmissivity values by the tracer method were within an order of magnitude of those calculated using heat‐pulse flow meter data.     

Quantifying weathering on variable rocks,an extension of geochemical mass balance: Critical zone and landscape evolution

We present a statistical model of soil and rock weathering in deep profiles to expand the capacity to assess weathering to heterogeneous bedrock types, which are common at the Earth's surface. We developed the Weathering Trends (WT) model by extending the fractional mass change calculation (tau) of the geochemical mass balance model in two important ways. First, WT log transforms the elemental ratio data, to discern the log‐linear patterns that naturally develop from thermodynamic and kinetic laws of chemistry. Second, WT statistically fits log‐transformed element concentration ratio data – log(c_j/c_i), the only depth‐varying term in tau – as a function of depth to determine characteristic depths of transitions in weathering processes, along with confidence intervals. With no prior assumptions, WT estimates average parent material composition, average composition of the upper weathered zone and mean fractional mass change of each element over the entire weathering profile. WT displays the mean shape of weathering profiles of log‐transformed geochemical data bounded by calculated confidence intervals. We share the WT model code as an open‐source R package ( https://github.com/fisherba/WeatheringTrends ). The WT model was designed to interpret two 21 m cores from the Laurels Schist bedrock in the Christina River Basin Critical Zone Observatory in the Pennsylvania Piedmont, where our morphological and elemental data provided inconclusive estimates of bedrock depth. The WT model differentiated between rock variability and weathering to delineate the maximum extent of weathering at 12.3 m (CI 95% [9.2, 21.3]) in Ridge Well 1 and 7.2 m (CI 95% [4.3, 13.0]) in Interfluve Well 2. The water table was 5–8 m below fresh rock at Ridge Well 1, but at the same depth as fresh rock at the lower elevation interfluve. We assess statistical approaches to identify the best immobile element for use in WT and tau calculations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding the Geometry of Connected Fracture Flow with Multiperiod Oscillatory Hydraulic Tests

An understanding of the spatial and hydraulic properties of fast preferential flow pathways in the subsurface is necessary in applications ranging from contaminant fate and transport modeling to design of energy extraction systems. One method for the characterization of fracture properties over interwellbore scales is Multiperiod Oscillatory Hydraulic (MOH) testing, in which the aquifer response to oscillatory pressure stimulations is observed. MOH tests were conducted on isolated intervals of wells in siliciclastic and carbonate aquifers in southern Wisconsin. The goal was to characterize the spatial properties of discrete fractures over interwellbore scales. MOH tests were conducted on two discrete fractured intervals intersecting two boreholes at one field site, and a nest of three piezometers at another field site. Fracture diffusivity estimates were obtained using analytical solutions that relate diffusivity to observed phase lag and amplitude decay. In addition, MOH tests were used to investigate the spatial extent of flow using different conceptual models of fracture geometry. Results indicated that fracture geometry at both field sites can be approximated by permeable two‐dimensional fracture planes, oriented near‐horizontally at one site, and near‐vertically at the other. The technique used on MOH field data to characterize fracture geometry shows promise in revealing fracture network characteristics important to groundwater flow and transport.     

Ground water/surface water interaction in a fractured rock aquifer

In a recent field study of ground water/surface water interaction between a bedrock stream and an underlying fractured rock aquifer, it was determined that the majority of ground water discharge occurred through sparsely located vertical fractures. In this paper, the dominant mechanisms governing ground water/surface water exchange in such an environment are investigated using a numerical model. The study was conducted using several conceptual models based on the field study results. Although the field results provided the motivation for the modeling study, it was not intended to match modeling and field results directly. In addition, the extent of capture zones for discharging or recharging fractures was explored. The results of this study are intended to provide a better understanding of contaminant migration in the vicinity of bedrock streams. Based on the numerical results, the rate of ground water discharge (or recharge) was found to depend on the aperture size of the discharging feature, and on the distribution of hydraulic head with depth within the fracture network. It was determined that the extent of both the capture zone and reverse capture zone for an individual fracture can be extremely large, and will be determined by the height of the stream stage, the fracture apertures of the network, and the hydraulic-head distribution within the network. Because both the stream stage and the hydraulic-head distribution are transient, the size of the capture zone and/or the reverse capture zone for an individual fracture may change significantly over time. As a result, the migration path for contaminants within the fracture network and between the surface and subsurface will also vary significantly with time.     

Analysis of macroscopic fractures in granite in the HDR geothermal well EPS-1, Soultz-sous-Forêts, France

An exhaustive analysis of 3000 macroscopic fractures encountered in the geothermal Hot Dry Rock borehole, EPS-1, located inside the Rhine graben (Soultz-sous-Forêts, France), was done on a continuous core section over a depth interval from 1420 to 2230 m: 97% of the macroscopic structures were successfully reorientated with a good degree of confidence by comparison between core and acoustic borehole imagery. Detailed structural analysis of the fracture population indicates that fractures are grouped in two principal fractures sets striking N005 and N170 °, and dipping 70 °W and 70 °E, respectively. This average attitude is closely related to the past tectonic rifting activity of the graben during the Tertiary, and is consistent with data obtained from nearby boreholes and from neighbouring crystalline outcrops. Fractures are distributed in clusters of hydrothermally altered and fractured zones. They constitute a complex network of fault strands dominated by N–S trends, except within some of the most fractured depth intervals (1650 m, 2170 m), where an E–W-striking fracture set occurs. The geometry of the pre-existing fracture system strikes in a direction nearly parallel to the maximum horizontal stress. In this favorable situation, hydraulic injections will tend both to reactivate natural fractures at low pressures, and to create a geothermal reservoir.     

Permeability profiles in granular aquifers using flowmeters in direct-push wells

Numerical hydrogeological models should ideally be based on the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K), a property rarely defined on the basis of sufficient data due to the lack of efficient characterization methods. Electromagnetic borehole flowmeter measurements during pumping in uncased wells can effectively provide a continuous vertical distribution of K in consolidated rocks. However, relatively few studies have used the flowmeter in screened wells penetrating unconsolidated aquifers, and tests conducted in gravel-packed wells have shown that flowmeter data may yield misleading results. This paper describes the practical application of flowmeter profiles in direct-push wells to measure K and delineate hydrofacies in heterogeneous unconsolidated aquifers having low-to-moderate K (10(-6) to 10(-4) m/s). The effect of direct-push well installation on K measurements in unconsolidated deposits is first assessed based on the previous work indicating that such installations minimize disturbance to the aquifer fabric. The installation and development of long-screen wells are then used in a case study validating K profiles from flowmeter tests at high-resolution intervals (15 cm) with K profiles derived from multilevel slug tests between packers at identical intervals. For 119 intervals tested in five different wells, the difference in log K values obtained from the two methods is consistently below 10%. Finally, a graphical approach to the interpretation of flowmeter profiles is proposed to delineate intervals corresponding to distinct hydrofacies, thus providing a method whereby both the scale and magnitude of K contrasts in heterogeneous unconsolidated aquifers may be represented.     

A tracer dilution method for fracture characterization in bedrock wells

This investigation was undertaken to develop an integrated method of downhole fracture characterization using a tracer. The method presented can be used to locate water-bearing fractures that intersect the well, to determine the ambient fracture flow rate and hydraulic head, and to calculate fracture transmissivity. The method was tested in two fractured crystalline bedrock wells located at the University of Connecticut in Storrs. The method entails injecting a tracer (uranine dye) into the well, while at the same time water is pumped out of the well. After steady-state conditions are reached, a borehole tracer concentration profile is developed. The dilution of the tracer is used to locate the inflowing fractures and to determine their flow rate. The fracture flow rate, plus the drawdown in the well, is then used to determine the fracture hydraulic head, transmissivity, and ambient flow rate.     

Air circulation in deep fractures and the temperature field of an alpine rock slope

The subsurface temperature field of a rock slope is a key variable influencing both bedrock fracturing and slope stability. However, significant unknowns remain relating to the effect of air and water fracture flow, which can rapidly transmit temperature changes to appreciable depths. In this work, we analyze a unique set of temperature measurements from an alpine rock slope at ~2400 m a.s.l. in southern Switzerland. The monitored area encompasses part of an active slope instability above the village of Randa (VS) and is traversed by a network of open cracks, some of which have been traced to >80 m depth. We first describe distributed temperature measurements and borehole profiles, highlighting deep steady temperatures and different transient effects, and then use these data to approximate the conductive temperature field at the site. In a second step, we analyze the impact of air and water circulation in deep open fractures on the subsurface thermal field. On multiple visits to the study site in winter, we consistently noted the presence of warm air vents in the snowpack following the trace of deep tension cracks. Measurements showed that venting air changed temperature gradually from ~3 to 2 °C between December and May, which is similar to the rock temperature at around 50 m depth. Comparison with ambient air temperature suggests that winter conditions favor buoyancy‐driven convective air flow in these fractures, which acts to cool the deep subsurface as the rock gives up heat to incoming air. The potential impact of this process on the local thermal field is revealed by a disturbed temperature profile in one borehole and transient signals observed at depths well below the thermal active layer. Seasonal water infiltration during snowmelt appears to have little impact on the temperature field in the monitored area. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GROUND-PENETRATING RADAR FOR HIGH-RESOLUTION MAPPING OF SOIL AND ROCK STRATIGRAPHY1

Ground-penetrating radar is a technique which offers a new way of viewing shallow soil and rock conditions. The need to better understanding overburden conditions for activities such as geochemical sampling, geotechnical investigations, and placer exploration, as well as the factors controlling groundwater flow, has generated an increasing demand for techniques which can image the subsurface with higher resolution than previously possible. The areas of application for ground-penetrating radar are diverse. The method has been used successfully to map ice thickness, water depth in lakes, bedrock depth, soil stratigraphy, and water table depth. It is also used to delineate rock fabric, detect voids and identify karst features. The effective application of the radar for the high-resolution definition of soil stratigraphy and fractures in bedrock is highlighted. The basic principles and practices involved in acquiring high quality radar data in the field are illustrated by selected case histories. One example demonstrates how radar has been used to map the bedrock and delineate soil horizons to a depth of more than 20 m. Two case histories show how radar has been used to map fractures and changes of rock type to 40 m range from inside a mine. Another case history demonstrates how radar has also been used to detect and map the extent of groundwater contamination. The corroboration of the radar results by borehole investigations demonstrates the power and utility of the high-resolution radar method as an aid for interpolation and extrapolation of the information obtained with conventional coring programmes. With the advent of new instrumentation and field procedures, the routine application of the radar method is becoming economically viable and the method will see expanded use in the future.     

Use of spatially distributed water table observations to constrain uncertainty in a rainfall–runoff model

The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology is used to investigate how distributed water table observations modify simulation and parameter uncertainty for the hydrological model TOPMODEL, applied to the Sæternbekken Minifelt catchment in Norway. Errors in simulating observed flows, continuously-logged borehole water levels and more extensive, spatially distributed water table depths are combined using Bayes' equation within a `likelihood measure' L. It is shown how the distributions of L for the TOPMODEL parameters change as the different types of observed data are considered. These distributions are also used to construct corresponding simulation uncertainty bounds for flows, borehole water levels, and water table depths within the spatially-extensive piezometer network. Qualitatively wide uncertainty bounds for water table simulations are thought to be consistent with the simplified nature of the distributed model.