地理探测器：原理与展望

空间分异是自然和社会经济过程的空间表现,也是自亚里士多德以来人类认识自然的重要途径。地理探测器是探测空间分异性,以及揭示其背后驱动因子的一种新的统计学方法,此方法无线性假设,具有优雅的形式和明确的物理含义。基本思想是：假设研究区分为若干子区域,如果子区域的方差之和小于区域总方差,则存在空间分异性;如果两变量的空间分布趋于一致,则两者存在统计关联性。地理探测器q统计量,可用以度量空间分异性、探测解释因子、分析变量之间交互关系,已经在自然和社会科学多领域应用。本文阐述地理探测器的原理,并对其特点及应用进行了归纳总结,以利于读者方便灵活地使用地理探测器来认识、挖掘和利用空间分异性。     

Postcolonialising Geography: Tactics and Pitfalls

The moves within postcolonial theory to "provincialise Europe" encourage an acknowledgement of the parochial nature of much of what still passes for universal theory in the western academy. Within geography, postcolonialism has generated a strong interest in colonial histories and contemporary postcolonial politics, but this has not displaced the dominant parochial forms of theorising in the discipline. The paper argues for a more cosmopolitan theoretical project within geography, one whose routes through a range of intellectual traditions and contexts might encourage a broader scope to conversations about space and nature, and produce more lively and creative insights into some of the urgent political issues facing the world today. A geography whose intellectual vision is limited to the concerns and perspectives of the richest countries in the world has little hope of effectively participating in the debates that will matter in the twenty-first century. Within the frame of this long-term intellectual project, this paper will suggest some initial practical steps which researchers, writers, teachers and students in geography might take to start to decentre the predominant Euro-Americanism of the discipline. The specific sources of inspiration for this argument are drawn from comparative urbanism and Southern African geography.     

Geography and Planning: Some Perspectives

This paper analyzes the migration of Puerto Rican-born women from the United States to Puerto Rico using longitudinal data. We hypothesize that sojourn length in the United States is a function of both structural (macro-level economic and cultural factors) and behavioral (micro-level life-cycle experiences and personal attributes) variables. We test these hypotheses by estimating a proportional hazards model. The parameter estimates of this model indicate that sojourn length in the United States, and thus the decision to return to Puerto Rico, is a function of wage trends and community characteristics on the mainland plus a number of individual attributes that include education, marriage, and childbirth.     

河流健康理论初探

健康河流是指在相应一定时期其社会功能与自然功能和谐并能够均衡发挥的河流, 其标志是具有良好的水质、水沙流畅的河床与可维系的河流生态系统。河流健康的指示性因子应是能够基本反映河流自然功能的因子, 包括河床形态、水质、河流生态和河川基流, 但因子的种类和数量因河而异, 其量化标准的确定则要充分考虑河流自然功能和社会功能均衡发挥 的需要和河流水情背景条件的变化。河流健康的核心是有相应足够而洁净的河川径流, 因此 保障河流一定的环境流量对维护河流健康十分重要。人类过多抽取河川径流和开发水电、不当地调控洪水和泥沙、过多向河流排污和过多改变关键物种栖息地水流环境的活动, 均会对河流健康造成严重伤害。本文以黄河为例, 对河流健康指标和低限健康指标的确定方法进行了阐述。     

Microearthquake swarms: scaling and lacunarity

The continental collision between the African and Eurasian plates in the Iberian peninsula is solved with a NW-SE compression with an extensional basin, the Alboran Sea. To explain this paradox, several models have been proposed, including the subduction process of a lithospheric plate. In this study a relocation of the seismicity of the area using a JHD algorithm for the period 1950–1995 has been performed, which shows a specific hypocentre pattern that is not compatible with plate subduction. In addition, the direction of the stresses acting in the area has been determined through a comprehensive study of all existing focal mechanisms, together with calculations for 19 new earthquakes with sufficient data to determine the focal solution. After considering all these data, the absence of intermediate shocks in the central part of the Alboran basin and the predominantly thrusting mechanisms at the borders of the basin, with pressure axes perpendicular to the front, we consider a delamination process as a possible mechanism acting in the area     

The Badia programme:: defining and overcoming constraints on sustainable development

Since 1992 research on the Badia Programme, in north-east Jordan, has begun the process of identifying constraints on development and is suggesting where developmental potential still exists. Still, there are no proven development options to set alongside the traditional pastoralism. Perhaps in the future, service industries will provide the main additional employment opportunities, especially those serving the needs of international trade to and from Iraq and further east.     

Interdisciplinary research: framing and reframing

Framing encompasses the processes of identifying and bounding the area of research and based on our own experiences as academics we have found significant differences in the ways that researchers establish and frame a disciplinary, compared to an interdisciplinary, research project. In this paper we have attempted to contribute to the development of the conceptual framework underpinning interdisciplinary research through analysis of interviews with a number of academics already working in an interdisciplinary manner. Successful projects are able to identify and support the processes that allow the communication and negotiation that is necessary, not just for the initial framing of a research funding proposal but to be able to maintain negotiation. Self awareness and continual reflexivity and a willingness to be questioned by others are essential to this process.     

城市和区域多中心研究进展

在城镇快速扩张和交通通信技术迅猛发展的背景下,许多城市和区域呈现出多中心的趋势;在城市和区域规划实践中,多中心也成为广泛应用的空间政策工具。论文回顾了国内外城市和区域多中心的研究进展,首先从研究尺度和中心重要性的界定出发,辨析了城市内和城市间、形态和功能多中心的内涵;而后分别从新中心的产生和既有中心一体化的角度解析了城市和区域多中心的形成和演化机制;进而总结了实证研究中多中心的识别和测量方法、城市和区域空间结构单中心化与多中心化的分异以及多中心绩效评估等领域的进展与不足。文章最后提出了多中心研究的拓展方向：明晰多中心概念并进行合理测度、比较空间结构演化的分异并剖析内在机制、对多中心的绩效进行多维度系统评估。     

Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting: Progress and perspectives

Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting is an active research field because of its potential applications in hydrological risk assessment, preparedness and mitigation. In recent decades, developments in ground and satellite measurements have made the hydrometeorological information readily available, and advances in information technology have facilitated the data analysis in a real-time manner. New progress in climate research and modeling has enabled the prediction of seasonal climate with reasonable accuracy and increased resolution. These emerging techniques and advances have enabled more timely acquisition of accurate hydrological fluxes and status, and earlier warning of extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods. This paper gives current state-of-the-art understanding of the uncertainties in hydrological monitoring and forecasting, reviews the efforts and progress in operational hydrological monitoring system assisted by observations from various sources and experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting, and briefly introduces the current monitoring and forecasting practices in China. The grand challenges and perspectives for the near future are also discussed, including acquiring and extracting reliable information for monitoring and forecasting, predicting realistic hydrological fluxes and states in the river basin being significantly altered by human activity, and filling the gap between numerical models and the end user. We highlight the importance of understanding the needs of the operational water management and the priority to transfer research knowledge to decision-makers.