Manifestation of the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere

Characteristics of the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation effects manifested on interannual scales in the equatorial stratosphere are determined. Wavelet analysis of local phase shifts, coherence, and correlation is used to obtain correlation portraits of the largest factors of climate variability against the background of coherent variations in the equatorial stratospheric wind speed at the 50- and 15-hPa pressure levels. It is shown that the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation signals may reach the tropical stratosphere. The signals are easily identified in a wide range of scales, including quasi-biennial, 3-to 5-year, and 10-to 11-year periods. The results obtained reflect a coherent pattern of the manifestation of these signals at the selected stratospheric levels. It is found that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation effect at periods close to 10–11 years reaches the stratospheric level rather rapidly, in the same or next month, while the effects of the Arctic Oscillation index are delayed by nine months. The estimates obtained show that a phase shift of almost 180° in the Arctic Oscillation index relative to the equatorial stratospheric wind occurred in almost all of the range of interannual periods in 1978 and 1992. For the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, an increase in local correlations on a scale of 3-to 5-year variations was observed in 1980–1990, a 180° phase shift occurred in 1992, and the correlation with stratospheric wind increased in 1992–2004. The estimates obtained are indicative of a change in the atmospheric circulation pattern that took place in the Northern Hemisphere in 1978–1991.     

Spatial and temporal seasonal trends in coastal upwelling off Northwest Africa, 1981–2012

Seasonal coastal upwelling was analyzed along the NW African coastline (11–35°N) from 1981 to 2012. Upwelling magnitudes are calculated by wind speed indices, sea-surface temperature indices and inferred from meteorological station, sea-surface height and vertical water column transport data. A permanent annual upwelling regime is documented across 21–35°N and a seasonal regime across 12–19°N, in accordance with the climatology of previous studies. Upwelling regions were split into three zones: (1) the Mauritania–Senegalese upwelling zone (12–19°N), (2) the strong permanent annual upwelling zone (21–26°N) and (3) the weak permanent upwelling zone (26–35°N). We find compelling evidence in our various indices for the Bakun upwelling intensification hypothesis due to a significant coastal summer wind speed increase, resulting in an increase in upwelling-favorable wind speeds north of 20°N and an increase in downwelling-favorable winds south of 20°N. The North Atlantic Oscillation plays a leading role in modifying interannual variability during the other seasons (autumn–spring), with its influence dominating in winter. The East Atlantic pattern shows a strong correlation with upwelling during spring, while El Niño Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation teleconnections were not found. A disagreement between observationally-based wind speed products and reanalysis-derived data is explored. A modification to the Bakun upwelling intensification hypothesis for NW Africa is presented, which accounts for the latitudinal divide in summer wind regimes.     

Spatial classification of La Niña events

Thirty La Niña events have been selected from monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data of the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) and Centennial Observation-Based Estimates (COBE SST2) datasets from 1870 to 2013 based on a criterion of –0.5°С for a cold anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region (5° N–5° S, 170°–120° W) and its minimum duration of 5 months. The selected events are classified by hierarchical clustering analysis according to two characteristics: geographic coordinates and SST anomalies during the mature phase of La Niña. The objective classification method identifies two types of La Niña differing by the evolution of negative SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific and by the Southern Oscillation Index.     

Analysis of the cause and effect relationships between El Niño in the Pacific and its analog in the equatorial Atlantic

The relations between the processes occurring in the equatorial latitudes of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans were studied on the basis of the Granger causality analysis and a simulation of phase dynamics using the indices of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the equatorial Atlantic mode (EAM). Data on the monthly means of the sea-surface temperature over the period 1870–2006 for the Niño 3 (5° S-5° N, 150° W-90° W) and Niño 3.4 (5° S-5° N, 170° W-120° W) regions in the Pacific and the Atlantic 3 region (20° W-0, 3° S-3° N) in the Atlantic Ocean were used as the ENSO and EAM indices. The statistically significant influence of the EAM on the ENSO is noted. The lag time of this influence is estimated at two months. No significant reverse effect is revealed. An increase in the EAM’s influence on the ENSO was observed in the second half of the 20th century.     

Fifty years of the 137°E repeat hydrographic section in the western North Pacific Ocean

The 137°E repeat hydrographic section of the Japan Meteorological Agency across the western North Pacific was initiated in 1967 as part of the Cooperative Study of the Kuroshio and Adjacent Regions and has been continued biannually in winter and summer. The publicly available data from the section have been widely used to reveal seasonal to decadal variations and long-term changes of currents and water masses, biogeochemical and biological properties, and marine pollutants in relation to climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In commemoration of the 50th anniversary in 2016, this review summarizes the history and scientific achievements of the 137°E section during 1967–2016. Through the publication of more than 100 papers over this 50-year span, with the frequency and significance of the publication increasing in time, the 137°E section has demonstrated its importance for future investigations of physical–biogeochemical–biological interactions on various spatiotemporal scales, and thereby its utility in enhancing process understanding to aid projections of the impact of future climate change on ocean resources and ecosystems over the twenty-first century.     

The different relationship of Pacific interior subtropical cells and two types of ENSO

The Pacific interior subtropical?tropical cells (STCs) and their relation to the two types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated by using GODAS reanalysis ocean data for the period of 1980–2017. The results show that the interior STC transport into the equatorial region across 9°S and 9°N has a close relationship with the eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, while it is much weaker with the central Pacific (CP) ENSO. It is suggested that the effect of interior STCs on the tropical Pacific climate is reflected in its relation with the western Pacific thermocline depth or SSHA. During the EP El Niño, the anomalous interior STCs at 9°S and 9°N converge to the equatorial region from the lag months of ? 25 to ? 8, leading to an accumulation of heat content in the equatorial Pacific; from the lag months of ? 8 to 10, they diverge poleward, inducing a discharge of equatorial heat content. The peak poleward interior STC anomaly first appears at 9°N at a zero-lag time, while that at 9°S is observed 4–5 months later. But there is also no appearance of a time lag between the interior STCs at 9°N and 9°S in recharging the period during the EP La Niña mature phase. However, during CP El Niño, only the conspicuous anomalous interior STC divergence appears during the mature and decay phases for the lag months of ? 2 to 10, with being symmetric at 9°N and 9°S.     

Principal Modes and Related Frequencies of Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Pacific Coast of North America

We examined monthly time-series (1950 to 1999) of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in 47 quadrants (2° × 2°) along the Pacific coast of North America. Correlation, clustering and principal components analyses were applied to identify the spatial structure in coastal SST. The resulting modes and the individual series were investigated using spectral analysis to identify the most significant time-scales of variability, and the propagation of the main signals was explored by computing the wavenumber-frequency spectrum of each spatial mode. Results showed that coastal SST variability in the northeast Pacific conformed to three main geographical modes. A tropical mode extends from the equator to about the entrance to the Gulf of California. This mode appears related to two low frequency components of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation of about 3 and 5 years. The SST anomaly related to these signals propagates poleward, seemingly at low speeds (≈0.08 m s^?1). A temperate (or transitional) mode, which includes the coastal areas along the California Current System, also shows the 5-year signal plus a decadal-scale component (periods between 10–17 years). Finally, a subarctic mode includes the coastal areas along the Gulf of Alaska and is dominated by the interdecadal variability that is characterized by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.     

The diel vertical migration of the sound-scattering layer in the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water of the southeastern Yellow Sea：focus on its relationship with a temperature structure

Using the hydroacoustic method with a 200 kHz scientific echo sounding system,the diel vertical migration(DVM) of the sound-scattering layer(SSL) in the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water(YSBCW) of the southeastern Yellow Sea was studied in April(spring) and August(summer) of 2010 and 2011.For each survey,13–27 hours of acoustic data were continuously collected at a stationary station.The acoustic volume scattering strength(Sv) data were analyzed with temperature profile data.In the spring of both 2010 and 2011,the SSL clearly showed the vertical migration throughout the entire water column,moving from the surface layer at night to near the bottom during the day.Conductivity,temperature,and depth data indicated that the entire water column was well mixed with low temperature of about 8 C.However,the SSL showed different patterns in the summers of 2010 and 2011.In the summer of 2010(28 C at the surface),the SSL migrated to near the bottom during the day,but there were two SSLs above and below the thermocline at depth of 10–30 m at night.In the summer of 2011(20 C at the surface),the SSL extended throughout the entire water column at night,possibly owing to an abrupt change in sea weather conditions caused by the passage of a Typhoon Muifa over the study area.It was concluded that the DVM patterns in summer in the YSBCW area may be greatly influenced by a strengthened or weakened thermocline.     

Long-term change and variation of salinity in the western North Pacific subtropical gyre revealed by 50-year long observations along 137°E

The 137°E repeat hydrographic section for 50 winters during 1967–2016 has been analyzed to examine interannual to interdecadal variations and long-term changes of salinity and temperature in the surface and intermediate layers of the western North Pacific, with a particular focus on freshening in the subtropical gyre. Rapid freshening on both isobars and isopycnals began in the mid-1990s and persisted for the last 20 years in the upper main thermocline/halocline in the western subtropical gyre. In addition, significant decadal variability of salinity existed in the subtropical mode water (STMW), as previously reported for the shallower layers. An analysis of the 144°E repeat hydrographic section during 1984–2013 supplemented by Argo profiling float data in 2014 and 2015 revealed that the freshening trend and decadal variability observed at 137°E originated in the winter mixed layer in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region and was transmitted southwestward to 137°E 1–2 years later in association with the subduction and advection of STMW. The mechanism of these changes and variations in the source region was further investigated. In addition to the surface freshwater flux in the KE region pointed out by previous studies, the decadal KE variability in association with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation likely contributes to the decadal salinity variability through water exchange between the subtropics and the subarctic across the KE. Interdecadal change in both the surface freshwater flux and the KE state, however, failed to explain the rapid freshening for the last 20 years.     

A gridded sea surface salinity data set for the tropical Pacific with sample applications (1950–2008)

We present a gridded data set of Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) for the tropical Pacific (120°E–70°W; 30°N–30°S), with a grid resolution of 1° longitude, 1° latitude and 1 month, from 1950 to 2008. The product, together with its associated error field, is derived from an objective analysis of about 10 million validated SSS records, with most of the data originating from Voluntary Observing Ships, TAO/TRITON moorings and Argo profilers (during the most recent period). We expect this product to benefit studies in oceanography, meteorology and paleoceanography. As examples of applications, we analyse: (a) the seasonal and ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) modes of observed SSS variability, (b) the ability of 23 coupled models used in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) to simulate the mean SSS and these two time varying modes, and (c) the usefulness of the SSS product and of its associated error field in calibrating and validating the paleo-salinity time series. We anticipate improvements and regular updates to our product, as more SSS data become available from in situ networks and from the ongoing and near-future satellite-derived observations by SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) and Aquarius.     

Climatic variability in the vicinity of Wallis,Futuna, and Samoa islands (13°–15° S, 180°–170° W)

Mean conditions, seasonal, and ENSO-related (El Niño Southern Oscillation) variability in the vicinity of Wallis, Futuna, and Samoa islands (13°–15° S, 180°–170° W) over the 1973–1995 period are analysed for wind pseudo-stress, satellite-derived and in situ precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS), sea level, and 0–450 m temperature and geostrophic current. The mean local conditions reflect the presence of the large scale features such as the western Pacific warm pool, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), and the South Pacific anticyclonic gyre. The seasonal changes are closely related to the meridional migrations of the SPCZ, which passes twice a year over the region of study. During the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño), we generally observe saltier-than-average SSS (of the order of 0.4), consistent with a rainfall deficit (0.4 m yr⁻¹), a hint of colder-than-average surface temperature is also identified in subsurface (0.3°C), a weak tendency for westward geostrophic current anomalies (2 cm s⁻¹ at the surface), a sea level decrease (5–10 cm), together with easterly (5 m²s⁻²) and well marked southerly (10 m²s⁻²) wind pseudo-stress anomalies. Anomalies of similar magnitude, but of opposite sign, are detected during the cold phase of ENSO (La Niña). While these ENSO-related changes apply prior to the 1990s, they were not observed during the 1991–1994 period, which appears atypical.     

Ocean temperature climate off North‐East New Zealand

The ocean temperature field off the north‐east coast of New Zealand is studied to quantify the annual cycle and reveal the intra‐ and inter‐annual variability. The data used are repeat expendable bathythermograph (XBT) sections between Auckland and either Suva or Honolulu which have been collected quarterly since 1986. These sections give temperature measurements between the surface and 800 m and Auckland and 30°S from 1986 to August 1999. The mean and annual cycle are compared with those from the NOAA World Ocean Atlas (WOA98). The results are similar; however WOA98 lacks the horizontal resolution to fully discern the East Auckland Current and North Cape Eddy, while the XBT analysis lacks the temporal resolution to discern higher frequency intra‐annual signals. The temperature variability in the mixed layer is dominated by the annual cycle, which accounts for 80–90% of the variance. The amplitude of the annual cycle diminishes rapidly with depth, from 2.8°C at the surface, to c. 0.1°C at 180 m. The phase of the annual cycle is retarded with depth, with peak temperatures occurring in February at the surface and in June/July at 180 m. Removing the annual cycle from the time series reveals the more subtle inter‐ and intra‐annual variability. This variability is of the order of 1°C in the upper 50 m, decreasing to 0.3°C at 400–500 m. The surface layer was cold between 1991 and 1994 (c. 0.7°C cooler than average), and 0.7°C warmer than average in 1999. The deeper ocean shows a different signal, being up to 0.3°C cooler in 1990–92, 0.3°C warmer in 1998, and c. 0.2°C warmer than average in 1999. The inter‐annual mixed layer variability is highly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index and also with inter‐annual terrestrial air temperature and wind measurements from northern New Zealand. In contrast, at higher intra‐annual frequencies, the mixed layer variability is not correlated with air and wind measurements. At these higher frequencies, the air temperature is better correlated with the sea surface temperature (SST) than with the bulk mixed layer temperature.     

Structure and mechanisms of the Arabian Sea variability during the winter monsoon

In the southern Arabian Sea (between the Equator and 10°N), the shoaling of isotherms at subsurface levels (20 °C isotherm depth is located at ∼90 m) leads to cooling at 100 m by 2–3 °C relative to surrounding waters during the winter monsoon. The annual and interannual variations of this upwelling zone, which we call the Arabian Sea dome (ASD), are studied using results from an eddy-permitting ocean general circulation model in conjunction with hydrography and TOPEX/ERS altimeter data. The ASD first appears in the southeastern Arabian Sea during September–October, maturing during November–December to extend across the entire southern Arabian Sea (along ∼5°N). It begins to weaken in January and dissipates by March in the southwestern Arabian Sea. From the analysis of heat-budget balance terms and a pair of model control experiments, it is shown that the local Ekman upwelling induced by the positive wind-stress curl of the winter monsoon generates the ASD in the southeastern Arabian Sea. The ASD decays due to the weakening of the cyclonic curl of the wind and the westward penetration of warm water from the east (Southern Arabian Sea High). The interannual variation of the ASD is governed by variations in the Ekman upwelling induced by the cyclonic wind-stress curl. Associated with the unusual winds during 1994–1995 and 1997–1998 Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) periods, the ASD failed to develop. In the absence of the ASD during the IOD events, the 20 °C isotherm depth was 20–30 m deeper than normal in the southern Arabian Sea resulting in a temperature increase at 97 m of 4–5 °C. An implication is that the SST evolution in the southern Arabian Sea during the winter monsoon is primarily controlled by advective cooling: the shoaling of isotherms associated with the ASD leads to SST cooling.     

Climatic and hydrophysical conditions of the development of hypoxia in waters of the northwest shelf of the Black Sea

The data of meteorological and oceanographic observations on the northwest shelf of the Black Sea for 1973–2000 are used to compute the characteristics of the entire area in the presence of hypoxia of waters under the pycnocline in the summer–autumn period and the area of surface waters with a level of salinity lower than 17.5‰ in May. The time of onset of the spring warming of air (stable transition through a temperature of 5°) is determined. A statistically significant positive trend of the air temperature (0.8° per 100 yr) is revealed in Odessa. The process of warming was observed mainly for the winter (1.5° per 100 yr) and spring (0.8° per 100 yr) periods and became especially intense since the beginning of the 1990s. On the basis of the data of correlation analyses, we establish a statistically significant relationship between the large-scale atmospheric processes [the index of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the wind conditions], the area of surface waters whose salinity is lower than 17.5‰, and the total area with hypoxia in the summer–autumn periods. For positive mean values of the NAO index (in January–March), we most often observe early spring with elevated repetition of the south and west winds with subsequent development of hypoxia in large areas of the northwest shelf. We propose an empirical regression model for the prediction of the total area of summer–autumn hypoxia of waters with predictors: the onset of the spring warming of air and the area of propagation of waters whose salinity is lower than 17.5‰ in May. The maximum error of prediction of the area with hypoxia does not exceed 5.5 ⋅ 10³ km², i.e., less than 2% of the total area of the northwest shelf in the Black Sea (to the north of 45°N).     

Observations and mechanisms of upwelling in the northern KwaZulu-Natal Bight,South Africa

New in situ time-series data were acquired by two ADCP moorings placed on the shelf off Richards Bay on the east coast of South Africa at depths of 25 m and 582 m between October 2009 and August 2010. The 11-month inshore bottom-temperature record revealed five substantial upwelling events lasting 5–10 days each where temperatures decreased by about 7 °C to 17–18 °C. Satellite sea surface temperature data showed these events to coincide with cold-water plumes occupying the northern wedge of the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Bight. Numerous shorter duration (1–2 days) upwelling events with less vivid surface expressions were also observed throughout the entire record where bottom temperature dropped by 2–3 °C. The last four months of the record were characterised by a protracted cool period lacking a seasonal trend but punctuated with oscillations of warm and cooler bottom water. In contrast to earlier studies that suggested upwelling was topographically and dynamically driven by the juxtaposition of the Cape St Lucia offset and the Agulhas Current (a solitary mechanism), our analysis showed almost all major and minor cold-water intrusions to coincide with upwelling-favourable north-easterly winds that simultaneously force a south-westerly coastal current. Ekman veering in the bottom boundary layer of the Agulhas Current, and the concomitant movement of cold water up the slope, was found to coexist at times with coastal upwelling, but its absence did not impede inshore cold-water intrusions, calling into question its role as a primary driver of upwelling. Both major and minor upwelling events were observed to promote phytoplankton blooms in the northern KZN Bight which commonly extended to the Thukela River. Wind-driven upwelling was also observed in the inner bight between Richards Bay and Port Durnford, explaining the ribbon of coastal chlorophyll continuously observed on ocean colour images between Cape St Lucia and the Thukela River. Similarities in upwelling character and mechanisms are observed between the northern KZN Bight and the Florida Current shelf systems.     

Climatic variability of transport in the upper layer of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current from hydrological and satellite data

Based on the satellite altimetry dataset of sea level anomalies, the climatic hydrological database World Ocean Atlas-2009, ocean reanalysis ECMWF ORA-S3, and wind velocity components from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the interannual variability of Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport in the ocean upper layer is investigated for the period 1959–2008, and estimations of correlative connections between ACC transport and wind velocity components are performed. It has been revealed that the maximum (by absolute value) linear trends of ACC transport over the last 50 years are observed in the date-line region, in the Western and Eastern Atlantic and the western part of the Indian Ocean. The greatest increase in wind velocity for this period for the zonal component is observed in Drake Passage, at Greenwich meridian, in the Indian Ocean near 90° E, and in the date-line region; for the meridional component, it is in the Western and Eastern Pacific, in Drake Passage, and to the south of Africa. It has been shown that the basic energy-carrying frequencies of interannual variability of ACC transport and wind velocity components, as well as their correlative connections, correspond to the periods of basic large-scale modes of atmospheric circulation: multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations, Antarctic Circumpolar Wave, Southern Annual Mode, and Southern Oscillation. A significant influence of the wind field on the interannual variability of ACC transport is observed in the Western Pacific (140° E–160° W) and Eastern Pacific; Drake Passage and Western Atlantic (90°–30° W); in the Eastern Atlantic and Western Indian Ocean (10°–70° E). It has been shown in the Pacific Ocean that the ACC transport responds to changes of the meridional wind more promptly than to changes of the zonal wind.     

On the influence of the sea surface temperature on the carbon dioxide exchange with the atmosphere

The influence of the sea surface temperature (SST) on the carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchange with the atmosphere at different spatial and temporal scales, which has a multidirectional character, was studied. The initial data included the monthly averages of the CO₂ flux during the period of 1982–2011 at grid nodes of 4° by latitude and 5° by longitude, as well as the SST satellite data from January 1, 1982 to December 31, 2012 at the geographical grid nodes of 0.25° × 0.25°. Statistical models of estimation of the resulting global CO₂ flux were suggested on the basis of data on SST anomalies. It is demonstrated that the SST variations in the equatorial zone mostly control the interannual fluctuations of the resulting CO₂ flux in the ocean-atmosphere system.     

Analysis of the influence that climatic variability has on the formation of the total-ozone-content field at extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

Having applied the method of discriminant analysis to the TOMS data of satellite sounding of the total ozone content (TOC) in the March months of 1979–2008, the authors could make a new estimate of the TOC field variability in the Northern Hemisphere and interlongitudinal regularities of its changes under the action of climatic variability. The effects of temperature variations in the polar stratosphere, El Niño, and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) have proven comparable and reach 80 DU in some regions. The influence of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) reaches 40 DU. The regions of TOC variations and their location and dimensions change depending on the phases of QBO, AO, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Three regions of increased TOC—over Europe, Eastern Siberia, and the Pacific Ocean—are formed in years with a warm stratosphere. A compensating TOC decrease takes place in the tropics and over Greenland. In the years of El Niño and the easterly QBO phase, the TOC increases over Europe and drops over the central Pacific, as well as to the south from 45° N. The AO controls the ozone growth over most of Eurasia at temperate latitudes and its weak drop over the Atlantic. It was impossible to obtain such quantitative estimates with the use of methods based on an independent analysis of the TOC series at individual points of the coordinate grid. Testing with the Monte Carlo method confirmed that the results obtained are significant with a probability of 95–99.9%.     

Interannual variations and trends in zonal mean series of total ozone, temperature, and zonal wind

The paper considers zonal mean (65° S–65° N, with a step of 5°) monthly mean NCEP/DOE reanalysis data on zonal wind and temperature at levels of 20 to 100 mb and the TOMS data of version 8 on total ozone (TO) for the period 1979–2005. The results of calculating linear-trend coefficients, correlation coefficients, and characteristic decay times and the data of spectral analysis are presented. In recent decades, the decrease in TO and the cooling of the lower stratosphere were accompanied by a weakening of the westerly wind. For deseasonalized series, the significance of their linear trends are evaluated with the use of the Monte Carlo method and it is shown that TO trends are significant at a level of 0.99 in extratropical latitudinal zones and that temperature trends are significant everywhere except in a narrow equatorial zone and in latitudes south of 50° S, whereas wind trends are significant only at a 50-mb level in the latitudinal belt 30°–50° in both hemispheres. According to the results of spectral analysis, for the majority of latitudinal zones, a triplet in the range of quasibiennial oscillations and oscillations with periods of about 4–6 and 9–13 years manifest themselves most persistently in the series of temperature, wind, and TO. Maximum correlation coefficients of the series of TO, wind, and temperature are observed over the equator, and, depending on altitude and latitude, TO variations may lag or lead temperature and wind variations in phase. Latitudinal distributions of characteristic decay times show an increase in this parameter in tropical and equatorial zones and its opposite behavior with altitude for temperature and wind fields.     

Spatio-temporal characteristics of the Agulhas Current retroflection

A 12.7-year series of weekly absolute sea surface height (SSH) data in the region south of Africa is used for a statistical characterization of the location of the Agulhas Current retroflection and its variations at periods up to 2 years. The highest probability of presence of the retroflection point is at ～39.5°S/18–20°E. The longitudinal probability density is negatively skewed. A sharp eastward decrease at 22°E is related to detachments of the Agulhas Current from the continental slope at this longitude. The asymmetry in the central part of the distribution might reflect a westward increase of the zonal velocity of the retroflection point during its east–west pulsations. The western tail of the distribution reveals larger residence times of the retroflection at 14°E–15°E, possibly related to a slowing down of its westward motion by seamounts. While the averaged zonal velocity component of the retroflection point increases westward, its modulus exhibits an opposite trend, the result of southward velocity components more intense in the northeastern Agulhas Basin than farther west. These meridional motions likely reflect influences by cyclones adjacent to the Agulhas Current south of the Agulhas Bank, and farther west in the Cape Basin. In the latter area, variations of the meridional motions result in different positions of the westernmost retroflection patterns relative to the neighbouring seamounts, likely influencing the future behaviour of Agulhas rings shed at these locations. Agulhas ring formation at an average yearly rate of 5.8, similar to previous findings, was observed to occur west of ～19°E, in the western half of the retroflection probability domain. A well-defined seasonal signal of the retroflection longitude was found throughout the first 5 years of the time series, characterized by amplitudes of 1–1.3° of longitude, and western (eastern) extremes during austral summer (winter). This annual cycle was strongly phase shifted during and after the upstream retroflection event of 2000–2001.