Modelling the influences of atmospheric forcing conditions on Baltic cod early life stages: distribution and drift

Retention or dispersion of larvae from the spawning ground has been identified as one of the key processes influencing recruitment success in fish stocks. An exercise combining 3-D hydrodynamic model simulations and field data on spatial distributions of juvenile Baltic cod was utilised to investigate the potential drift of larvae from the centre of main spawning effort in the Bornholm Basin, Baltic Sea. In the simulations cod larvae were represented as Lagrangian drifters. Habitats in which larvae and juvenile cod potentially dwell and where juveniles settle were identified to ascertain the importance of predicting transport. The transport of Baltic cod larvae was investigated by detailed drift model simulations for the years 1986 to 1999. The results yielded a clear dependency on wind-induced drift of larval cod, which is mainly controlled by the local atmospheric conditions over the Baltic Sea. Seasonally averaged distributions of drifters were compared with actual distributions of 0-group cod, as determined from bottom and pelagic trawl surveys conducted in autumn of the years 1993 to 2000 in and around the Bornholm Basin. The results suggest that juveniles caught in different areas can be assigned to different times of the spawning season. Because of seasonal differences in the circulation patterns, the southern coastal environment is on average most important for early and late spawners, whereas larvae hatching in mid-summer were on average transported towards the north or to a higher degree remained in the spawning ground.     

Modeling the pathways and ages of inflowing salt- and freshwater in the Baltic Sea

A three-dimensional, eddy-permitting ocean circulation model with implemented bottom boundary layer model and flux-corrected transport scheme is used to calculate the pathways and ages of various water masses in the Baltic Sea. The agreement between simulated and observed temperature and salinity profiles of the period 1980–2004 is satisfactory. Especially the renewal of the deep water in the Baltic proper by gravity-driven dense bottom flows is better simulated than in previous versions of the model. Based upon these model results details of the mean circulation are analyzed. For instance, it is found that after the major Baltic inflow in January 2003 saline water passing the Słupsk Furrow flows directly towards northeast along the eastern slope of the Hoburg Channel. However, after the baroclinic summer inflow in August/September 2002 the deep water flow spreads along the southwestern slope of the Gdansk Basin. Further, the model results show that the patterns of mean vertical advective fluxes across the halocline that close the large-scale vertical circulation are rather patchy. Mainly within distinct areas are particles of the saline inflow water advected vertically from the deep water into the surface layer. To analyze the time scales of the circulation mean ages of various water masses are calculated. It is found that at the sea surface of the Bornholm Basin, Gotland Basin, Bothnian Sea, and Bothnian Bay the mean ages associated to inflowing water from Kattegat amount to 26–30, 28–34, 34–38, and 38–42 years, respectively. Largest mean sea surface ages of more than 30 years associated to the freshwater of the rivers are found in the central Gotland Basin and Belt Sea. At the bottom the mean ages are largest in the western Gotland Basin and amount to more than 36 years. In the Baltic proper vertical gradients of ages associated to the freshwater inflow are smaller than in the case of inflowing saltwater from Kattegat indicating an efficient recirculation of freshwater in the Baltic Sea.     

One hundred years of hydrographic measurements in the Baltic Sea

The first measurements of salinity of the deep water in the open Baltic Sea were made in the last decades of the 1800s. At a Scandinavian science meeting in Copenhagen in 1892, Professor Otto Pettersson from Sweden suggested that regular measurements of hydrographic parameters should be carried out at some important deep stations in the Baltic Sea. His suggestion was adopted and since that time we have rather complete hydrographical data from the Bornholm Deep, the Gotland Deep, and the Landsort Deep and from some stations in the Gulf of Bothnia. The measurements were interrupted in the Baltic Proper during the two World Wars. At the beginning only salinity, temperature and dissolved oxygen were measured and one or two expeditions were carried out annually, mostly in summer. In the 1920s also alkalinity and pH were occasionally measured and total carbonate was calculated. A few nutrient measurements were also carried out. After World War II we find results from four or more expeditions every year and intercalibration of methods was arranged. Results of temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen measurements from the Bornholm Deep, the Gotland Deep, the Landsort Deep and salinity measurements from three stations in the Gulf of Bothnia, covering the whole 20th century are presented and discussed. The salinity distribution and the variations between oxygen and hydrogen sulphide periods in the deep water of the Gotland Deep and the Landsort Deep are demonstrated. Series of phosphate and nitrate distribution in the Gotland Deep are shown from the 1950s to the present and the effects of the stagnant conditions are briefly discussed. Two large inflows of highly saline water, the first during the First World War and the second in 1951, are demonstrated. The 20th century minimum salinity of the bottom water in the Baltic Proper in 1992 is discussed.     

Synoptic variability of the currents in the Gotland Basin of the Baltic Sea

The series of long-term observations of synoptic-scale currents obtained by instrumental measurements at the moorings in the Gotland Basin of the Baltic Sea are analyzed. The results of the statistical analysis of the currents reveal their wave structure. The characteristics of the low-frequency waves received on the basis of the cross-spectral analysis show that, in the range of periods from 2 to 20 days, they propagated in the southwestern, southeastern, and northwestern directions with phase speeds of 0.02–2.08 m/s and have lengths from 28 to 431 km. It is suggested that the distinguished wavelike perturbations of the synoptic-scale currents are related to topographic waves. The analysis of the meteorological conditions and the results of the numerical hydrodynamic modeling of the Baltic Sea free low-frequency fluctuations led us to conclude that the most possible mechanism of the generation of the intense wave-like oscillations of synoptic-scale currents in the Gotland Basin is the resonance between the anemobaric forces and the relatively slow-moving anticyclones over the open Baltic Sea and the eigenmode of the basin.     

Oceanological Research in the Baltic Sea during the 56th Cruise of the Passenger Vessel Akademik Ioffe

Oceanology - During the 56th cruise of the P/V Akademik Ioffe (August 2020) in the Baltic Sea, hypoxia was registered at a water depth of 80 m, hydrogen sulfide in the East Gotland Basin was...     

Methane fluxes in the southeastern Baltic Sea

New data from surveys of gas-bearing mud areas in the Gdansk Deep (southeastern Baltic Sea) were collected during four research cruises in 2009–2011. These revealed the presence of seven large pockmarks apart from the three already known, and enabled significant improvement of the existing digital map of gassy mud distribution. Based on geochemical sediment analyses, calculated diffusive methane fluxes from the upper (0–5?cm) seabed layer into near-bottom waters were highest—3.3?mmol/(m²?day)—in pockmark mud, contrasting strongly with the minimum value of 0.004?mmol/(m²?day) observed in typical, background mud. However, fluxes of less than 0.1?mmol/(m²?day) were observed in all sediment types, including pockmarks. In a newer attempt to roughly estimate budgets at a more regional scale, diffusive methane venting amounts to 280?×?10⁶?mmol/day for southeastern Baltic Sea muddy sediments. Elongated pockforms in the southern Gotland Deep, known since the end of the 1980s as pockmarks, had methane concentrations that were similar to those of gassy mud from the Gdansk Basin, and there was no geo-acoustic evidence of considerably increased gas levels.     

Changes in the species composition and ichthyoplankton abundance along transects in the Baltic Sea

Correlations have been revealed between the distribution of the different ichthyoplankton species and the fluctuations of the environmental factors along transects in the Baltic Sea during the autumn of 2005 and spring and autumn of 2006. The early ontogenetic stages of the cod and other bottom fish species were confined to the Bornholm Basin located in the southwestern part of the sea with near-bottom salinity of more than 16?? and the absence of an oxygen deficiency in the isohaline zone of 11?C14??. Eggs and larvae of the Baltic sprat were distributed in June throughout all the deep-sea regions with near-bottom water salinity of no less than 8%., up to the western Gulf of Finland. In the spring of 2006, the abundance of sprat eggs was found to drop significantly compared with the average long-term data for the recent period; this was due to the cold winter of 2006.     

Dissolved uranium in the Baltic Sea

Filtered water from the Baltic Sea was analysed for uranium concentration and ²³⁴U/²³⁸U activity ratio with alpha-ray spectrometry. The uranium concentration shows a strong correlation to salinity, the correlation coefficient being close to 0.98. Consequently, the uranium concentration increases from 0.15 μg kg⁻¹ in the northern part, dominated by fresh water, to above 1.0 μg kg⁻¹ in the Belt Sea. However, the data also show that dissolved uranium is not strictly conservative in the Baltic. In deeper intermittently anoxic basins of the Baltic Proper, the element is removed from the water phase and incorporated into the sediment. This is most evident in the Gotland Deep, which has been anoxic below 200 m depth since 1979.     

Stratification-induced hypoxia as a structuring factor of macrozoobenthos in the open Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea)

Long-term (1965–2000) changes of macrozoobenthos and hydrography have been studied in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). For the first time, statistical multivariate time series analysis is applied to Baltic Sea data to verify the relationship between biota and interacting environmental factors causing large-scale hypoxia in the open sea. For macrozoobenthos, a consistent long-term development of the assemblages was found over the study area. In the period before the 1990s, very sparse macrozoobenthos prevailed, followed by a notable expansion of macrofauna between the late 1980s and early 1990s and leading to a maximum of total abundance and species number between 1991 and 1996. After that, a sudden collapse of the communities took place in 1996–1997. The hydrographical changes included a continuous decrease in salinity and density stratification until the early 1990s, after which an increase took place again. In contrast, low mean and minimum dissolved oxygen concentrations were observed at the beginning of the study period, followed by increasing values in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and a simultaneous decline of oxygen conditions in 1996. Based on non-linear trends estimated by dynamic factor analysis (DFA), high and significant correlations were found between total macrofauna abundance, number of species, salinity, oxygen conditions, strength of stratification and freshwater run-off. The results confirm that oxygen is obviously a fundamental factor that determines the state of the macrozoobenthos in the deep GoF, overruling other abiotic factors. However, the improvement of the oxygen conditions is apparently caused by the long-term decrease of salinity and loss of stratification in the relatively shallow GoF, reflecting large-scale changes in hydrography of the Baltic Sea during the long 1977–1993 stagnation period. Thus the development in GoF is opposite to the deeper basins in the central Baltic. We conclude that salinity and stratification are probably linked with climatic variability via freshwater run-off, which may be important in regulating the oxygen conditions and state of macrozoobenthos in GoF.     

Field Research in the Baltic Sea on Cruise 55 of the P/V Akademik Ioffe

Oceanology - New data on the structure of the water column, upper layer of bottom sediments, and biological communities of the Gdansk and Gotland deeps and the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea...     

Fishermen responses on marine protected areas in the Baltic cod fishery

Much of the research that concerns the impacts of management measures in the eastern Baltic cod fishery has focused on fish stock rather than understanding fishermen's attitudes towards regulations. Hence, there is little information available on fishermen's responses although they are the ones whom the regulations affect most profoundly. This study analyses the views of fishermen towards management measures with an emphasis on fishing closures (marine protected areas, MPAs). Swedish log-book data from 1996 to 2005 were used to describe MPA induced fishing effort displacements. Fishermen argued that MPAs have been inefficient in conservation of cod stock. The enlargement of Bornholm MPA in 2005 caused substantial effort displacement towards areas dominated by smaller sized fish. This contributed to the increased discarding of juvenile cod. Enlarged MPAs also intensified competition between different fleet segments and reallocated fishing areas. To reduce fishing mortality, fishermen suggested days-at-sea (effort) regulation and an effective landings control system for all fleets that exploit cod stocks in the Baltic Sea Main Basin. These measures would better motivate fishermen for mutual rule compliance, which is a prerequisite for a sustainable cod fishery.     

Physical processes in the transition zone between North Sea and Baltic Sea. Numerical simulations and observations

The dynamics in the transition zone between the North Sea and Baltic Sea are analyzed here using data from a 22-year-long climatic simulation with a focus on the periods 1992–1994 and 2001–2003 when two recent major inflow events occurred. Observations from gauges and in situ measurements are used to validate the model. Parameters, which cannot be easily measured, such as water and salt transports through straits, have been compared against similar previous estimates. The good performance of simulations is attributed to the finer resolution of the model compared to earlier set ups. The outflow in the Kattegat, which is an analogue of the tidal outflows, tends to propagate to the North over the shallows without showing a substantial deflection to the right due to the Earth's rotation. The inflow follows the topography. The different inflow and outflow pathways are explained as a consequence of the specific combination of bathymetry, axial and lateral processes. The circulation in Kattegat is persistently clockwise with an eastern intensification during inflow and a western one during outflow regimes. The tidal wave there propagates as Kelvin wave, keeping the coast on its right. The flows in the two main straits reveal very different responses to tides, which are also highly asymmetric during inflow and outflow conditions. The circulation has a typical two-layer structure, the correlation between salinity and velocity tends to increase the salt transport in the salinity conveyor belt. The transversal circulation in the entrance of the Sound enhances the vertical mixing of the saltier North Sea water. The long-term averaged ratio of the water transports through the Great Belt and the Sound is ∼2.6-2.7 but this number changes reaching lower values during the major inflow in 1993. The transports in the straits are asymmetric. During inflow events the repartition of water penetrating the Baltic Sea is strongly in favor of the pathway through the Sound, which provides a shorter connection between the Kattegat and Baltic proper. The wider Great Belt has a relatively larger role in exporting water from the Baltic into the North Sea. A demonstration is given that the ventilation of the Baltic Sea deep water is not only governed by the dynamics in the straits and the strong westerly winds enhancing the eastward propagation of North Sea water (a case in 1993), but also by the clockwise circulation in the Kattegat acting as a preconditioning factor for the flow-partitioning.     

Diet of red-throated divers Gavia stellata reflects the seasonal availability of Atlantic herring Clupea harengus in the southwestern Baltic Sea

Red-throated divers are piscivorous seabirds considered to be opportunistic feeders. The overall knowledge about their diet at sea is scarce. A large sample size of 82 by-caught red-throated divers from two winter (2001–02 and 2002–03) and three spring periods (2003, 2004 and 2005) offered the unique opportunity to analyse their dietary composition in the Pomeranian Bight. This area represents a hot spot in their winter distribution in the southwestern Baltic Sea and a marine protected area has been established due to its importance for the divers and other seabird species. Diet composition was analysed based on stomach and gut contents. The comparison of the different prey species was mainly based on reconstructed biomass using regressions between skeletal hard parts such as otoliths and original fish length and weight. The diet of the divers comprised eleven different fish species and nine different families. No interannual differences in the consumption of the nine most important prey species could be observed. However, in contrast to the other fish species the consumption of Atlantic herring and zander differed significantly between seasons. Herring supplied the majority of prey biomass in all three spring periods and zander in both winter periods. Moreover, the average length of herring consumed differed significantly between seasons. In winter, smaller herring was consumed compared to spring. The distinct seasonal changes in the diet composition were paralleled and most probably evoked by the migration pattern of the Western Baltic spring spawning herring which has its main spawning grounds adjacent to the study area. Based on the habitat requirements of the different prey species it could be inferred that mostly the coastal waters of the bight were used for foraging. Its function as spawning, nursery area and feeding ground with numerous resident and migrating fish species available might explain the important role of the Pomeranian Bight as wintering and staging area for red-throated divers in the southwestern Baltic Sea.     

The dynamics of postovulatory follicle degeneration and oocyte growth in Baltic sprat

Ovaries of Baltic sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus S.) were analysed histologically to identify stages of postovulatory follicles (POF) and to assess the oocyte development pattern. Samples were taken every 3 h during a 24 h trawl survey conducted in the Bornholm Basin in April 2007. Gonad histology revealed spawning of sprat throughout the day which hampered the exact ageing of POFs by the postovulatory follicle method and therefore did not allow direct estimation of spawning frequency. However, it was possible to define four stages of POFs, according to their histological features. The occurrence of these POF stages (I to IV) corresponded clearly to the development of the leading oocyte cohort. Further, the oocyte recruitment pattern revealed that the spawning batch can be identified prior to hydration. The POF stages I and II were present almost exclusively in vitellogenic ovaries, POF III were found in ovaries in the germinal vesicle stage, and the most deteriorated POF stage IV was found in actively spawning fish with hydrated oocytes. Since POF were absent only in very few ovaries (5%), and in each ovary in general only one POF stage was present, the duration of POF degeneration approximately equals the average batch interval, i.e. the time lag between subsequent spawning events. The results of the present study will serve as basis for future studies on Baltic sprat oocyte recruitment and daily spawning fraction.     

The impact of salt water inflows on the distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the deep water of the Baltic Sea

Salt-water inflows into the Baltic Sea are important events for renewing the deep and bottom waters of the deep basins of the Baltic Sea. These events occur only at irregular intervals. The last strong event was in January 1993 followed by minor inflows in winter 1993/1994. As a result of these inflows, the deep water of the central Baltic basins was completely renewed.Based on extensive observations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in water, fluffy layer material and surface sediments between 1992 and 1998, the transformation of PAHs and the modification of their distribution in the Baltic deep water is discussed in connection with the spreading of the inflowing highly saline and oxygen-rich water along its pathway from the sills into the central basins. In the course of the inflows in 1993/1994, the PAH concentration in the deep water of the different basins increased significantly. The concentrations were elevated, at least by a factor of 2 and as much as seven to eight times (for the four-ring PAHs) compared to the previous and the following years. Two hypotheses for the causes were discussed: the inflowing salt water may have entrained more highly polluted surface water in the western Baltic Sea, or it may have entrained contaminated fluffy layer material or sediment particles along the route of transport.     

Response of the Baltic Sea to climate change—theory and observations

The dynamics controlling the response of the Baltic Sea to changed atmospheric and hydrologic forcing are reviewed and demonstrated using simple models. The response time for salt is 30 times longer than for heat in the Baltic Sea. In the course of a year, the Baltic Sea renews most of its heat but only about 3% of its salt. On the seasonal scale, surface temperature and ice-coverage are controlled by the atmospheric conditions over the Baltic Sea as demonstrated by e.g. the strong inter-annual variations in winter temperature and ice-coverage due to variations in dominating wind directions causing alternating mild and cold winters. The response of surface temperature and ice-coverage in the Baltic Sea to modest climate change may therefore be predicted using existing statistics. Due to the long response time in combination with complicated dynamics, the response of the salinity of the Baltic Sea cannot be predicted using existing statistics but has to be computed from mechanistic models. Salinity changes primarily through changes in the two major forcing factors: the supply of freshwater and the low-frequency sea level fluctuations in the Kattegat. The sensitivity of Baltic Sea salinity to changed freshwater supply is investigated using a simple mechanistic steady-state model that includes baroclinic geostrophic outflow from the Kattegat, the major dynamical factor controlling the freshwater content in the Kattegat and thereby the salinity of water flowing into the Baltic Sea. The computed sensitivity of Baltic Sea surface salinity to changes of freshwater supply is similar to earlier published estimates from time-dependent dynamical models with higher resolution. According to the model, the Baltic Sea would become fresh at a mean freshwater supply of about 60 000 m³ s⁻¹, i.e. a 300% increase of the contemporary supply. If the freshwater supply in the different basins increased in proportion to the present-day supply, the Bothnian Bay would become fresh already at a freshwater supply of about 37 000 m³ s⁻¹ and the Bothnian Sea at a supply of about 45 000 m³ s⁻¹. The assumption of baroclinic geostrophic outflow from the Kattegat, crucial for the salinity response of the Baltic Sea to changed freshwater supply, is validated using daily salinity profiles for the period 1931–1977 from lightship Läsö Nord.     

On the influence of the freshwater supply on the Baltic Sea mean salinity

The sensitivity of the Baltic Sea mean salinity to climatic changes of the freshwater supply is analyzed. The average salinity of the Baltic Sea is about 6‰. The low salinity is an effect of a large net freshwater supply and narrow and shallow connections with the North Sea. As a result of mixing in the entrance area, a large portion of the outflowing Baltic Sea water returns with the inflowing salty water and thus lowers the salinity of the Baltic Sea deep-water considerably. This recycling of the Baltic Sea water is a key process determining the salinity of today's Baltic Sea. The sensitivity of this recycling, and thus of the Baltic Sea salinity, to climatic changes in the freshwater supply is analyzed. A simple model is formulated for the variations of the Baltic Sea freshwater content. Historical data of the freshwater supply and the salinity in the Baltic Sea are used in the model to achieve an empirical expression relating variations of the recycling of Baltic Sea water to the variations of the freshwater supply. The recycling is found to be very sensitive to the freshwater supply. We find that an increase of freshwater supply of 30% is the level above which the Baltic Sea would turn into a lake. Recent climate modeling results suggest that river runoff to the Baltic Sea may increase dramatically in the future and thus possibly put the Baltic Sea into a new state.     

Measurements of the total ozone content in the central Arctic Basin

In 2003, measurements of the total ozone content (TOC) in the central Arctic Basin were resumed after a long-term break at the NP-32 and NP-33 drifting research stations. This paper presents the first results of analyses of the observational data obtained at the NP-32 and NP-33 stations and aboard the R/V Akademik Fedorov. An approach allowing comparison fo the mean ozone-content values measured in different time periods from moving platforms, such as drifting stations and research vessels, is used. The TOC variability over the central Arctic Basin in 2003–2005 is described, and results of comparison of these data with the data of both long-term TOC measurements at a number of stationary Arctic stations in 1973–2002 and measurements at the NP-22 station in 1976–1977 are presented.