Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for inelastic response and structural behaviour factors

The objective of this paper is to present ground-motion prediction equations describing constant-ductility inelastic spectral ordinates and structural behaviour factors. These equations are intended for application within the framework of Eurocode 8. Most of the strong-motion data used in the present work is obtained from the ISESD (Internet Site for European Strong-motion Data) databank. Present analysis includes ground motion records from significant Icelandic earthquakes, which are augmented by records obtained from continental Europe and the Middle East. In all cases the selected ground motion records are generated during shallow earthquakes within a distance of 100 km from the recording station. The classification of site conditions in the present work is based on the Eurocode 8 definition.     

Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) for inelastic displacement and ductility demands of constant-strength SDOF systems

The objective of this paper is to present ground-motion prediction equations for ductility demand and inelastic spectral displacement of constant-strength perfectly elasto-plastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillators. Empirical equations have been developed to compute the ductility demand as a function of two earthquake parameters; moment magnitude, and source-to-site distance; one site parameter, the ground type; and three oscillator parameters, an undamped natural period, critical damping ratio, and the mass-normalized yield strength. In addition, a comparative study of the proposed model with selected previous studies and recommendations of Eurocode 8 is presented. Proposed equations can easily be incorporated in existing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) software packages with the introduction of an additional parameter. This leads to hazard curves for inelastic spectral displacement, which can provide better estimates of target displacement for nonlinear static procedures and an efficient intensity measure for probabilistic seismic demand analysis (PSDA). Proposed equations will be useful in performance evaluation of existing structures.     

Wavelet-based response spectrum compatible synthesis of accelerograms—Eurocode application (EC8)

An integrated approach for addressing the problem of synthesizing artificial seismic accelerograms compatible with a given displacement design/target spectrum is presented in conjunction with aseismic design applications. Initially, a stochastic dynamics solution is used to obtain a family of simulated non-stationary earthquake records whose response spectrum is on the average in good agreement with the target spectrum. The degree of the agreement depends significantly on the adoption of an appropriate parametric evolutionary power spectral form, which is related to the target spectrum in an approximate manner. The performance of two commonly used spectral forms along with a newly proposed one is assessed with respect to the elastic displacement design spectrum defined by the European code regulations (EC8). Subsequently, the computational versatility of the family of harmonic wavelets is employed to modify iteratively the simulated records to satisfy the compatibility criteria for artificial accelerograms prescribed by EC8. In the process, baseline correction steps, ordinarily taken to ensure that the obtained accelerograms are characterized by physically meaningful velocity and displacement traces, are elucidated. Obviously, the presented approach can be used not only in the case of the EC8, for which extensive numerical results/examples are included, but also for any code provisions mandated by regulatory agencies. In any case, the presented numerical results can be quite useful in any aseismic design process dominated by the EC8 specifications.     

Seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia (SE Spain): analysis of source contribution to hazard

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations [SA(T)] is presented in this paper. In contrast to most of the previous studies in the region, which were performed for PGA making use of intensity-to-PGA relationships, hazard is here calculated in terms of magnitude and using European spectral ground-motion models. Moreover, we have considered the most important faults in the region as specific seismic sources, and also comprehensively reviewed the earthquake catalogue. Hazard calculations are performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology using a logic tree, which accounts for three different seismic source zonings and three different ground-motion models. Hazard maps in terms of PGA and SA(0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s) and coefficient of variation (COV) for the 475-year return period are shown. Subsequent analysis is focused on three sites of the province, namely, the cities of Murcia, Lorca and Cartagena, which are important industrial and tourism centres. Results at these sites have been analysed to evaluate the influence of the different input options. The most important factor affecting the results is the choice of the attenuation relationship, whereas the influence of the selected seismic source zonings appears strongly site dependant. Finally, we have performed an analysis of source contribution to hazard at each of these cities to provide preliminary guidance in devising specific risk scenarios. We have found that local source zones control the hazard for PGA and SA(T ≤ 1.0 s), although contribution from specific fault sources and long-distance north Algerian sources becomes significant from SA(0.5 s) onwards.     

Physico-chemical evolution of groundwater in tectonically active areas. Application to the Leana hot spring (Murcia Region,SE Spain)

Seismic events can affect the physico-chemical characteristics of groundwater. These anomalies are of a pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic nature and correspond to pulse variations, sudden increases and decreases without return to initial values and upward or downward changes in trend. Continuous and in situ conductivity and temperature monitoring and periodic water sampling at a hot spring associated with neotectonic activity are of great interest for establishing predictive methods. This method is limited to the seismic activity affecting the fracturing system with which the hot spring is associated. The Region of Murcia and surroundings (southeast Spain) was selected as the study area for exploring the nature of these influences on groundwater. A hot spring in the Leana spa (Murcia) was equipped and monitored during the period 2006–2008, allowing for the in situ determination of conductivity and temperature as well as of major and minor constituents at the laboratory. Due to its proximity and related with fault network, we suggest that 86 % of earthquakes located between 0 and 10 km may affect in situ parameters of groundwater, and 75 % may affect laboratory determinations. This percentage drops in more distant zones. Of all earthquakes that seem to influence groundwater, 55 % of the in situ parameter anomalies and 53 % of laboratory were of a pre-seismic nature.     

Prediction of elastic displacement response spectra in Europe and the Middle East

Empirical equations are presented for the prediction of displacement response ordinates for damping ratios of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 30% of critical and for response periods up to 4s, using 532 accelerograms from the strong‐motion databank from Europe and the Middle East. The records were all re‐processed and only employed for regressions at periods within the usable range, defined as a fraction of the filter cut‐off and depending on the instrument type (digital or analogue), earthquake magnitude and site class. The equations can be applied to predict the geometric mean displacement and pseudo‐acceleration spectra for earthquakes with moment magnitudes ( M ) between 5 and 7.6, and for distances up to 100km. The equations also include style‐of‐faulting and site class as explanatory variables. The predictions obtained from these new equations suggest that earlier European equations for spectral displacements underestimate the ordinates at longer periods as a result of severe filtering and the use of the spectral ordinates at periods too close to the filter cut‐off. The results also confirm that the period defining the start of the constant displacement plateau in the Eurocode 8 (EC8) spectrum is excessively short at 2s. The results not only show that the scaling factor defined in EC8 for estimating the spectral ordinates at damping ratios different from 5% of critical are a good general approximation, but also that this scaling varies with magnitude and distance (reflecting the influence of duration) and also displays a mild dependence on response period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Terrestrial photogrammetric techniques applied to the control of a parabolic dune in the Liencres dune system,Cantabria (Spain)

The spatial–temporal variations of a dune system can be determined by using diverse ‘geomatic’ methodologies: geodesy, global positioning system (GPS) and photogrammetry. In the case of the Liencres dune system, a study will be carried out using the ‘close‐range’ photogrammetry technique and the topography technique (total station and GPS). In order to determine the dynamic of the dune system it is necessary to repeat the process of study after a specific interval of time. For this reason, three dimensional data should be available in two different time periods, between which the displacement of the object of analysis (the front portion of the dune) will be significant enough to evaluate its magnitude. This work analyses the viability of photogrammetry for the determination of the spatial–temporal changes of a coastal parabolic dune. Two factors have been analysed: first, the comparison of the photogrammetric results with the results obtained from topographic methods (total station and GPS), and second, the quantification of the displacement of the dune system. The analysis of the correspondence between the movement of different parts of the dune and the influence of the intensity and direction of the prevailing wind in the area is also desired. The dune advanced 12·15 ± 0·06 m (an average of 8·5 m/yr), and the partial implications for the dynamic of human modified processes on the natural park have been established. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A(b)值在东南沿海地区地震预测中的应用

采用A(b)值空间扫描方法对1975年以来东南沿海地区ML2.3到ML4．9级地震资料进行了研究。统计分析了Ms4．6级以上地震前A(b)值异常情况。结果显示大多数Ms4．6级以上地震发生前的1～3年内,震中周围出现A(b)≥5．0的高值异常区域。R值检验结果为0．46。     

Influence of deterioration modelling on the seismic response of steel moment frames designed to Eurocode 8

This paper assesses the influence of cyclic and in‐cycle degradation on seismic drift demands in moment‐resisting steel frames (MRF) designed to Eurocode 8. The structural characteristics, ground motion frequency content, and level of inelasticity are the primary parameters considered. A set of single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) systems, subjected to varying levels of inelastic demands, is initially investigated followed by an extensive study on multi‐storey frames. The latter comprises a large number of incremental dynamic analyses (IDA) on 12 frames modelled with or without consideration of degradation effects. A suite of 56 far‐field ground motion records, appropriately scaled to simulate 4 levels of inelastic demand, is employed for the IDA. Characteristic results from a detailed parametric investigation show that maximum response in terms of global and inter‐storey drifts is notably affected by degradation phenomena, in addition to the earthquake frequency content and the scaled inelastic demands. Consistently, both SDOF and frame systems with fundamental periods shorter than the mean period of ground motion can experience higher lateral strength demands and seismic drifts than those of non‐degrading counterparts in the same period range. Also, degrading multi‐storey frames can exhibit distinctly different plastic mechanisms with concentration of drifts at lower levels. Importantly, degrading systems might reach a “near‐collapse” limit state at ductility demand levels comparable to or lower than the assumed design behaviour factor, a result with direct consequences on optimised design situations where over‐strength would be minimal. Finally, the implications of the findings with respect to design‐level limit states are discussed.     

Assessing soil erosion rates in cultivated areas of Navarre (Spain)

Although there is much evidence of intense soil erosion in cultivated areas of Navarre (Spain), information on it is currently scarce. Rill and ephemeral gully volumes can be used as a guide to minimum erosion rates. With the main purpose of determining the annual soil loss rates in cultivated areas of central Navarre, a detailed assessment of rainfall and of rill and gully erosion was made in 19 small catchments from October 1999 to September 2001. Seventeen of them were randomly selected, and were cultivated with winter cereals, vineyards or sunflowers. The other two catchments were selected to represent partially uncultivated lands abandoned for ten years. Channel cross‐sections were measured by using a 1‐m‐wide micro‐topographic profile meter, describing 632 cross‐sections and processing information from 31 600 pins. Erosive events happened every year in the three study areas. For cereal catchments, soil losses occurred in only one or two rainfall events each year, usually at the end of autumn and in some summers, with high erosion rates (0·20–11·50 kg m^?2 a^?1). In vineyards, soil losses occurred several times per year, and in any season. This is attributed to the small percentage of surface covered by the crop throughout the year. Again, high erosion rates were found (0·33–16·19 kg m^?2 a^?1), with ephemeral gully erosion causing more loss than rill erosion. No‐till is proposed as an effective conservation measure. From this large data set, it can be stated that rill erosion and ephemeral gully erosion are widespread in Mediterranean regions, and that much more attention should be paid to the problem. Abandoned fields showed very high erosion rates (16·19 kg m^?2 a^?1 on average), suggesting that the abandonment of marginal lands without implementing any erosion control can lead to severe erosion rates. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of spatially distributed seismic demands in specific structures: Structural response to loss estimation

A companion paper has investigated the effects of intensity measure (IM) selection in the prediction of spatially distributed response in a multi‐degree‐of‐freedom structure. This paper extends from structural response prediction to performance assessment metrics such as probability of structural collapse; probability of exceeding a specified level of demand or direct repair cost; and the distribution of direct repair loss for a given level of ground motion. In addition, a method is proposed to account for the effect of varying seismological properties of ground motions on seismic demand that does not require different ground motion records to be used for each intensity level. Results illustrate that the conventional IM, spectral displacement at the first mode, S_de(T₁), produces higher risk estimates than alternative velocity‐based IM's, namely spectrum intensity, SI, and peak ground velocity, PGV, because of its high uncertainty in ground motion prediction and poor efficiency in predicting peak acceleration demands. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Derivation of design soil coefficients (S) and response spectral shapes for Eurocode 8 using the European Strong-Motion Database

A revision is presently under way to upgrade the status of the `Designrecommendations for earthquake resistance of structures', commonlyreferred to as Eurocode 8 (or EC8). In order to improve the definition ofthe design elastic response spectra (ERS) as defined in the Eurocode 8 –Part 1 (Draft May 2001), the values of the soil amplification factors havebeen calculated for sites on sedimentary soils, both stiff (category B) andsoft (category C), with respect to rock sites (category A), such ascontemplated in EC8. The work was performed by a systematic study ofresponse spectra as a function of magnitude and site conditions, usingrecords from the European Strong-Motion Database.The results confirm the occurrence of systematic spectral amplification onsedimentary soils with respect to reference rock in a large set of Europeanstrong motion data. Such amplification has been quantified through ameasure derived from the Housner Spectrum Intensity definition.The values of the soil coefficients recommended in the current version ofEC 8 are shown to be realistic for category C, in the case of a moderateseismicity context. However the values for subsoil class B need to besignificantly increased both for the moderate and high seismicity context.     

Isotopic composition (δ18O and δD) of precipitation and groundwater in a semi‐arid,mountainous area (Guadiana Menor basin,Southeast Spain)

We characterize the precipitation and groundwater in a mountainous (peaks slightly above 3000 m a.s.l.), semi‐arid river basin in SE Spain in terms of the isotopes ¹⁸O and ²H. This basin, with an extension of about 7000 km², is an ideal site for such a study because fronts from the Atlantic and the Mediterranean converge here. Much of the land is farmed and irrigated both by groundwater and runoff water collected in reservoirs. A total of approximately 100 water samples from precipitation and 300 from groundwater have been analysed. To sample precipitation we set up a network of 39 stations at different altitudes (800–1700 m a.s.l.), with which we were able to collect the rain and snowfall from 29 separate events between July 2005 and April 2007 and take monthly samples during the periods of maximum recharge of the aquifers. To characterize the groundwater we set up a control network of 43 points (23 springs and 20 wells) to sample every 3 months the main aquifers and both the thermal and non‐thermal groundwater. We also sampled two shallow‐water sites (a reservoir and a river). The isotope composition of the precipitation forms a local meteoric water line (LMWL) characterized by the equation δD = 7·72δ¹⁸O + 9·90, with mean values for δ¹⁸O and δD of − 10·28‰ and − 69·33‰, respectively, and 12·9‰ for the d‐excess value. To correlate the isotope composition of the rainfall water with groundwater we calculated the weighted local meteoric water line (WLMWL), characterized by the equation δD = 7·40δ¹⁸O + 7·24, which takes into account the quantity of water precipitated during each event. These values of (dδD/dδ¹⁸O)< 8 and d‐excess (δD–8δ¹⁸O)< 10 in each curve bear witness to the ‘amount effect’, an effect which is more manifest between May and September, when the ground temperature is higher. Other effects noted in the basin were those of altitude and the continental influence. The isotopic compositions of the groundwater are represented by the equation δD = 4·79δ¹⁸O − 18·64. The groundwater is richer in heavy isotopes than the rainfall, with mean values of − 8·48‰ for δ¹⁸O and − 59·27‰ for δD. The isotope enrichment processes detected include a higher rate of evaporation from detrital aquifers than from carbonate ones, the effects of recharging aquifers from irrigation return flow and/or from reservoirs' leakage and enrichment in δ¹⁸O from thermal water. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Slope instabilities triggered by the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquake (Murcia,Spain): comparison to previous hazard assessments and proposition of a new hazard map and probability of failure equation

The Lorca Basin has been the object of recent research aimed at studying the phenomena of earthquake-induced landslides and its assessment in the frame of different seismic scenarios. However, it has not been until the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquakes when it has been possible to conduct a systematic approach to the problem. In this paper we present an inventory of slope instabilities triggered by the Lorca earthquakes which comprises more than 100 cases, mainly rock and soil falls of small size (1–100  \(\hbox {m}^{3}\) ). The distribution of these instabilities is here compared to two different earthquake-triggered landslide hazard maps: one considering the occurrence of the most probable earthquake for a 475-years return period in the Lorca Basin \((\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.0)\) based on both low- and high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM); and a second one matching the occurrence of the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.2\) 2011 Lorca earthquake, which was performed using the higher resolution DEM. The most frequent Newmark displacements related to the slope failures triggered by the 2011 Lorca earthquakes are lower than 2 cm in both the hazard scenarios considered. Additionally, the predicted Newmark displacements were correlated to the inventory of slope instabilities to develop a probability of failure equation. The fit seems to be very good since most of the mapped slope failures are located on the higher probability areas. The probability of slope failure in the Lorca Basin for a seismic event similar to the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}\) 5.2 2011 Lorca earthquake can be considered as very low (0–4 %).     

Magnetic gradient map of the mine tailings in Portman Bay (Murcia,Spain) and its contribution to the understanding of the bay infilling process

The present study is a pilot magnetic gradient survey inserted in a set of geological and geophysical works that are planned to understand the infilling process of the Portman Bay (Murcia, Spain).In a period of 33 years (from 1957 until 1990) the Portman Bay has been silted up with mine tailings. This mining waste, after being discharged into the sea, was transported by littoral currents which sorted it and concentrated the densest mineral fractions (mainly magnetite and other iron oxides). In this sedimentary context, the magnetic gradient map obtained did not detect any massive accumulation of magnetic minerals, but rather a regular distribution following parallel-banded structures in the successive contours of the bay. It has been observed that one of these magnetic bands perfectly superimposes on the ancient coastline visible in aerial photo of 1972, interpreting that this coincidence is explained by the fact that the magnetite was concentrated along the sandy ridges, oriented according to the refraction of the littoral currents.In this document we analyse the magnetic gradient map obtained in a restricted sector of the Portman Bay. This sector covers an area of 2 ha and it was chosen as a first test. The significant results suggest the suitability of this method to be conducted to the whole bay. The main objective of this study is to show the usefulness of magnetic gradient method to obtain a paleogeographic reconstruction of the infilling process of this bay.     

Impact of millennial mining activities on sediments and microfauna of the Tinto River estuary (SW Spain)

In this paper, we analyze two short cores collected in the Tinto estuary (SW Spain), and describe the palaeoenvironmental evolution of this area during the last two millennia, along with the influence of historical mining activities and recent industrial pollution on sediments and microfauna (foraminifera and ostracoda). Although there were no significant changes in the distribution of microorganisms, a first pollution period (0-150 AD) was recorded in high sediment pollution by Cu in the shallow palaeochannels of the middle estuary. During this period and the following 1700 years, tolerant pioneer species of both foraminifera and ostracoda were found predominantly in the inner, protected areas of the estuary, while the bottom sediments were subjected to high hydrodynamic gradients, and consequently showed lower density and diversity of organisms. In the last 150 years, acid mine drainage processes, introduction of a new mining period, and the polluted inputs derived from two industrial processes resulted in increased heavy metal contamination of the bottom sediments, and corresponding extirpation of ostracodes and restriction of foraminifers to the inner zones of the estuary.     

Evaluating Duero's basin (Spain) response to the NAO phases: spatial and seasonal variability

In this study, we analysed the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the hydrological response of the Duero River (central Spain) and its tributaries. We identified the positive and negative phases of the winter NAO for the period 1961–2006 and related precipitation and river discharge anomalies. Significant differences in precipitation and river discharge were found between the positive and negative NAO phases with negative anomalies (dry conditions) during positive NAO periods, and positive anomalies (wet conditions) during negative NAO periods. Marked differences were also found in the precipitation and river discharge response times to the NAO episodes, with an immediate response for precipitation but a lag and more sustained response for river discharges. Differing patterns were also identified in the response of river discharge to the NAO throughout the Duero basin. The physical characteristics of watersheds (including area, altitude and permeability explained most of the differences in the timing and magnitude of anomalies in the river discharge in response to the NAO. The findings highlight the great variability in the hydrological response of rivers to the NAO episodes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Localised coherent response of the La Molina basin (Lima,Peru) to earthquakes,and future approaches suggested by Parkway basin (New Zealand) experience

Earthquake records from a 1984 temporary seismograph array set up in La Molina, Lima, Peru, are re-analysed. The array comprised eight three-component geophones; seven soil based and one rock based. Values of horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) for two small earthquakes peaked at around 1.3 Hz. In one distant earthquake, four of the seven soil-based stations showed a peak at 1.25 Hz in soil-to-rock spectral ratio (SSR), the same dominant frequency observed during an aftershock of a damaging earthquake. Because this frequency is not compatible with the shear wave velocity profile attributed to La Molina, and because the spectral peak is confined to a small ground area, it is concluded that the peak is caused by a localised deposit of soft soil. Because the area associated with the spectral peak includes the area of great damage in 1974, it is concluded that coherent monochromatic behaviour is responsible for the damage.     

Longitudinal and temporal patterns of benthic coarse particulate organic matter in the Agüera stream (northern Spain)

Benthic coarse particulate organic matter (CPOM) was studied between November 92 and December 93 at four sites along the longitudinal gradient of the Agüera stream system (Northern Spain). CPOM was sorted in four main categories: leaves (several species), fruits and seeds, twigs and debris. Headwater site showed higher densities of total CPOM, leaves and twigs than downstream reaches, but no regular longitudinal pattern of change was noticed. The ranges of mean CPOM standing stock at the sampling sites were 20.5–74.1 g AFDW m^–2 (site B), 9.9–47.7 g AFDW m^–2 (site 5), 4.3–21.4g AFDW m^–2 (site 7) and 9.8–37.9 g AFDW m^–2 (site 9). The particulate matter at downstream sites was in a more advanced stage of breakdown probably as a result of processing and transport from upstream reaches. Leaves species composition of benthic CPOM clearly reflected the type of riparian vegetation at each site. The timing of inputs and the hydrologic regime appeared to act together influencing temporal dynamics of benthic CPOM. A gradual temporal change in species composition of benthic leaf litter was observed under natural mature deciduous forest: first alder, later chestnut and finally oak.