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1.
黑龙江省冰雹的气候及空间分布特征. 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
利用黑龙江省80个气象台站38a的降雹资料,应用统计方法对黑龙江省的降雹规律进行分析.得到了黑龙江省冰雹的时间和空间分布特征。空间上,黑龙江省冰雹天气分布中北部多,东南、西南部少;时间上,降雹存在明显的日变化,基本都集中于10-20时;冰雹天气年际变化明显,70年代至今,年代平均降雹呈现减少趋势。 相似文献
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文章使用云南1961—2015年观测气象资料和RegCM4区域气候模式模拟的RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2016—2099年气候变化预估资料,计算了云南逐日气候舒适度指数,采用线性趋势和通径分析等方法分析了云南近55年气候舒适度的时空演变特征和变化成因,最后对未来变化趋势作了预估。结果显示:(1)云南观测资料多年平均值舒适日数最多,占全年的55%,南多北少,夏季最多;寒冷日数次多,占全年的23%,北多南少,冬季最多;冷日数比寒冷日数稍少,占全年的20%;热日数仅占全年的1%,闷热日数多年平均值为零。(2) 1961—2015年寒冷(舒适)日数年际和空间变化都呈明显的减少(增加)趋势,冷和热日数没有明显的变化趋势,闷热日数没有变化。(3)气温是云南气候舒适度各等级日数变化的主要因素,其次是风速,相对湿度只在温度高的情况下影响明显。(4) RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景下,2016—2099年云南寒冷(舒适)日数年际和空间变化都是减少(增加)的趋势;冷日数年变化是减少的趋势,空间变化为西北部增加;热日数只在RCP8.5情景下增加明显,主要是南部地区增加。 相似文献
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The spatial and temporal distributions of marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) over the northern North Atlantic have been investigated using re-analysis data for the period from 1958 to 2007. MCAOs are large-scale outbreaks of cold air over a relatively warm ocean surface. Such conditions are known to increase the severity of particular types of hazardous mesoscale weather phenomena. We used a simple index for identifying MCAOs: the vertical potential temperature gradient between the sea surface and 700 hPa. It was found that atmospheric temperature variability is considerably more important than the sea surface temperature variability in governing both the seasonal and the inter-annual variability of MCAOs. Furthermore, a composite analysis revealed that a few well-defined and robust synoptic patterns are evident during MCAOs in winter. Over the Labrador and Irminger Seas the MCAO index was found to have a correlation of 0.70 with the North Atlantic Oscillation index, while over the Barents Sea a negative correlation of 0.42 was found. 相似文献
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Jonathan Rougier 《Climatic change》2007,81(3-4):247-264
This paper describes an approach to computing probabilistic assessments of future climate, using a climate model. It clarifies
the nature of probability in this context, and illustrates the kinds of judgements that must be made in order for such a prediction
to be consistent with the probability calculus. The climate model is seen as a tool for making probabilistic statements about
climate itself, necessarily involving an assessment of the model’s imperfections. A climate event, such as a 2^C increase in global mean temperature, is identified with a region of ‘climate-space’, and the ensemble of model evaluations
is used within a numerical integration designed to estimate the probability assigned to that region. 相似文献
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胡家祥 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2012,6(4):44-47
摘要: 根据新疆克州及其周边13个气象台站1961-2010年的历史气候资料,采用基于DEM的空间插值技术对该地区年平均气温、降水量和日照时数等气候要素的空间分布进行了模拟分析。结果表明:(1)经验证,该方法对克州年平均气温等主要气候要素的空间分布模拟效果较好,精度较高;(2)新疆克州年平均气温的空间分布总体呈现“平原高,山区低”的特点;年降水量呈现“北部多,南部少;山区多,平原少”的空间分布格局;年日照时数的空间分布总体呈现“高山带多,中、低山带和山前倾斜平原少”的特征。 相似文献
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《中国气象科学研究院年报》2011,(1):24-32
2011年,气候系统研究所在气候系统模式研发、陆面过程对我国气候的影响以及我国云南持续性干旱的成因等方面开展了深入研究,取得可喜的进展。 相似文献
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The physical and economic impacts of climate warming in the Mackenzie River Valley, Northwest Territories, Canada are estimated using a combination of stochastic modelling, econometric-modelling and input-output analysis. The attempt was to illustrate the utility of using analytical models for long-term impact assessment as well as to estimate the potential impacts from projected climate warming in the region. A scenario approach, based on three global circulation models, was used, with an emphasis on modelling climate variability, river ice conditions and economic impacts. The transportation system was used as a central focus linking the physical and socio-economic components. Despite the significant warming projected for the region, results show the economic impacts from changes in transportation to be relatively minor, with the greatest changes being in the tertiary, or service, sector. 相似文献
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该文回顾了过去几十年来中国气象科学研究院在气候和气候变化研究方面的成果, 主要包括对我国历史气候资料的恢复、重建和整理, 气候区划, 对我国气温和降水的研究, 对青藏高原温度和降水、近地层与边界层地-气过程, 大气热源特征和臭氧变化的研究, 古气候模拟, 对气候变化的预测理论和方法以及气候和气候变化对我国社会、经济的影响等方面的研究。近50年中国气象科学研究院收集大量气候资料并整理出版了《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》; 对风能等资源进行了气候区划; 明确了近几十年中国地区在20世纪40年代和90年代出现了两个暖期, 20世纪50—60年代出现了相对冷期; 在全球变暖的背景下, 以四川为中心的西南地区自20世纪50年代到80年代一直在变冷; 20世纪80年代以后, 多雨带由华北南移到长江中下游地区; 提出青藏高原近地层与边界层地-气过程的综合物理图像; 发现青藏高原夏季臭氧低值中心; 模拟出青藏高原隆起过程中中国气候变化特征; 揭示出东亚季风环流系统及其成员; 设计了多种预报方法; 还将气候和气候变化研究成果向国家经济转化。 相似文献
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《中国气象科学研究院年报》2010,(1):9-14
2010年度气候系统研究所在准双周振荡结构与起源、东部地区降水年代际演变特征、13变化机理、降水评估和古气候研究等方面取得明显进展,主要研究成果如下。 相似文献
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The literature on climate change’s impacts on energy security is scattered across disparate fields of research and schools of thought. Much of this literature has been produced outside of the academy by scholars and practitioners working in “think tanks,” government agencies, and international/multilateral institutions. Here we reviewed a selected set of 58 articles and reports primarily from such sources and performed textual analysis of the arguments. Our review of this literature identifies three potential mechanisms for linking climate change and energy security: Climate change may 1) create second-order effects that may exacerbate social instability and disrupt energy systems; 2) directly impact energy supply and/or systems or 3) influence energy security through the effects of climate-related policies. We identify emerging risks to energy security driven by climate mitigation technology choices but find less evidence of climate change’s direct physical impacts. We used both empirical and qualitative selection factors for choosing the grey literature sample. The sources we selected were published in the last 5 years, available through electronic media and were written in language accessible to general policy or academic readers. The organizations that published the literature had performed previous research in the general fields of energy and/or climate change with some analytical content and identified themselves as non-partisan. This literature is particularly valuable to scholars because identifies understudied relationships that can be rigorously assessed through academic tools and methodologies and informs a translational research agenda that will allow scholars to engage with practitioners to address challenges that lie at the nexus of climate change and energy security. 相似文献
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Clint C. Muhlfeld J. Joseph Giersch F. Richard Hauer Gregory T. Pederson Gordon Luikart Douglas P. Peterson Christopher C. Downs Daniel B. Fagre 《Climatic change》2011,106(2):337-345
Climate warming in the mid- to high-latitudes and high-elevation mountainous regions is occurring more rapidly than anywhere
else on Earth, causing extensive loss of glaciers and snowpack. However, little is known about the effects of climate change
on alpine stream biota, especially invertebrates. Here, we show a strong linkage between regional climate change and the fundamental
niche of a rare aquatic invertebrate—the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana—endemic to Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park, Canada and USA. L. tumana has been petitioned for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced glacier loss, yet little
is known on specifically how climate impacts may threaten this rare species and many other enigmatic alpine aquatic species
worldwide. During 14 years of research, we documented that L. tumana inhabits a narrow distribution, restricted to short sections (~500 m) of cold, alpine streams directly below glaciers, permanent
snowfields, and springs. Our simulation models suggest that climate change threatens the potential future distribution of
these sensitive habitats and the persistence of L. tumana through the loss of glaciers and snowfields. Mountaintop aquatic invertebrates are ideal early warning indicators of climate
warming in mountain ecosystems. Research on alpine invertebrates is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and ecosystem change. 相似文献
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Stergios Arg. Pirintsos Luca Paoli Stefano Loppi Kiriakos Kotzabasis 《Climatic change》2011,107(3-4):305-328
A climatic change was simulated transplanting samples of the lichens Evernia prunastri (L.) Ach. and Pseudevernia furfuracea (L.) Zopf v. furfuracea along a 1,400 m altitudinal gradient in the northern side of the island of Crete (Greece). The working hypothesis was that the photosynthetic performance (i.e. pigment content, chlorophyll degradation and photosynthetic efficiency) of transplanted lichens varies along the altitudinal gradient. The overall effect observed was a general depression of the photosynthetic performance along the gradient. Concentrations of chlorophyll a, chlorophyll b and carotenoids decreased with decreasing elevation and along with the hottest and driest months of the year, with chlorophyll b being the most sensitive parameter to dry conditions. Chlorophyll degradation decreased with increasing elevation. The exposure period was the main factor affecting photosynthetic efficiency, with lower values during summer months. We argued that the water content of lichen thalli is the most important factor determining differences in photosynthesis under the experimental conditions. This allowed to suggest that the lichen photosynthetic performance deserves further investigation as early biological indicator of atmospheric stress induced by dry conditions and, to a greater extent, for the assessment of the desertification risk in the arid Mediterranean environment. 相似文献
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使用维多利亚大学的地球系统模式进行模拟,选取1800-2500年间较高的CO2浓度情景(RCP8.5),分析由于CO2增加引起的气候变化对海洋碳循环的影响。当气候敏感度为3.0 K时,相对于无气候变化,到2100年,由于大气CO2增加造成的气候变化导致海表面温度升高2.7 K,北大西洋深水流量减少4.5 Sv,海洋对人为碳的年吸收减少0.8 Pg C;比较人为溶解无机碳在海洋中的垂直累积分布,发现气候变化对海洋吸收大气CO2的影响在北大西洋区域最明显。1800-2500年,相对于不考虑气候变化的情景,模式模拟的气候变化导致整个海洋对人为碳的累积吸收总量减少23.1%,其中北大西洋减少32.0%。此外,比较不同气候敏感度(0~4.5 K,间隔为0.5 K)的模拟结果发现,气候敏感度越高,气候变化对海洋吸收CO2能力的抑制作用越明显。 相似文献
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ABSTRACTThis study demonstrates that long-term climate model solutions can be efficiently converted to storm surge time series at points of interest (POIs) for the future. The all-source Green's function (ASGF) regression model is used for this conversion. In addition to being data assimilative, the ASGF regression model can also simulate storm surges at a POI faster than the traditional modelling approach by orders of magnitude. This is demonstrated using the tidal gauge at Sept-Îles (Quebec, Canada) in the Gulf of St. Lawrence as the POI. First the ASGF regression model is used to assimilate 32 years of tidal gauge data, producing a continuous hindcast of storm surges and a set of best-estimate regression parameters. Second, the ASGF regression model with the best-estimate parameters is used to convert a Canadian Regional Climate Model solution (CRCM/AHJ) to an hourly time series of storm surges from 1961 to 2100. Gumbel's extreme value analysis (EVA) is then applied to the time series as a whole and also to tri-decadal segments. The tri-decadal approach is used to investigate whether there is any progressive shortening or lengthening of storm surge return periods as a result of future climate change. A method for correcting for bias due to the forcing field at the EVA level is also demonstrated. 相似文献
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根据相空间嵌入定理,按照Grassberger和Procaccia提出的计算分数维的方法,利用近百年来南、北半球地面气温资料,估算了气候吸引子的分数维,计算结果表明:气候吸引子的分数维南半球为3.3~3.7,北半球为3.2~3.7。它提供了气候吸引子的自相似结构的基本信息,表明模似气候系统最少需要4个独立变量。另外,还讨论了气候噪声对估算维数的影响。 相似文献