基于Hargreaves-Samani回归修正的作物参考蒸散发计算适用性研究

为提高Hargreaves-Samani（H-S）模型计算参考蒸散发的精度,利用西北黄河流域与长江中下游平原共128个气象站点1961—2010年的逐日气象资料对H-S模型进行回归修正,以Penman-Monteith（P-M）模型为标准,评价了H-S改进模型H-S_CORR模型的计算精度,并且以第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）气候模式来对H-S_CORR模型进行了未来适应性评价。结果表明：修正后,在验证期内,长江中下游平原4个分区的平均绝对误差（MAE）和均方根误差（RMSE）的平均值分别下降了6.21 mm·月^-1和6.38 mm·月^-1;西北黄河流域4个分区的MAE和RMSE的平均值分别下降了9.26 mm·月^-1和9.23 mm·月^-1,2个研究区域修正后的决定系数（R²）比修正前最少提高1%。在CMIP6气候模式的未来气候情景下R²均达到0.98以上,具有良好的适应性。该研究修正的模型方法可为仅有气温数据的地区提供较高精度的参考蒸散发估算方法,为高频灌溉提供较为准确的数据基础。     

额济纳绿洲生长季参考作物蒸散发敏感性分析

敏感性分析是预测气象变量扰动引起的参考作物蒸散发变化的重要途径。以额济纳绿洲为研究区,运用FAO56 Penman-Monteith模型计算了额济纳绿洲1988—2007年生长季参考作物的日平均蒸散发,并计算其对气温、风速、太阳辐射和相对湿度的敏感系数。结果表明,额济纳绿洲生长季参考作物日平均蒸散发的敏感性系数波动较大;其中,参考作物蒸散发对太阳辐射最为敏感,其次是气温,最后是风速和相对湿度。利用敏感性系数能较好的预测参考作物蒸散发对太阳辐射、气温、风速和相对湿度扰动产生的响应。     

松嫩平原西部参考作物蒸散量变化过程

采用松嫩平原西部34 个气象站1951~2000 年5 个气象要素资料, 运用FAO Penman- Monteith 方程计算参考作物蒸散量, 建立了各站与区域蒸散量序列。运用气候数理统计方法对蒸 散量序列时空变化特征进行诊断分析, 并以点、面相结合的方式揭示气候突变规律。结果表明, 蒸 散量基本上以西南部沙地为高值中心向东北呈带状递减; 近50 年区域蒸散量略呈增加趋势, 研 究区北部的蒸散量增加贡献最大; 区域蒸散量以1962 和1982 年为转折点, 呈明显的阶段性变 化; 在50 年的演变过程中, 区域蒸散量被检测到2 次增加突变和1 次减少突变, 典型站突变发生 时间与区域突变基本相符, 但突变性质存在明显的地域差异。     

华北山区短时段参考作物蒸散量的计算

短时段参考作物蒸散量的估算是研究华北山区小尺度范围内的水分循环和转化的重要环节.因受观测条件的限制,北方半湿润半干旱山区短时段参考作物蒸散量的研究相对较少.本文利用FAO Penman-Monteith公式、FAO Penman修正式和Priestley-Taylor公式对华北山区东台沟小流域观测到的4个月的气象数据进行了逐日的参考作物蒸散量计算,结果显示,FAO Penman修正式的计算值比FAO Penman-Monteith公式的计算值平均偏大16%左右,而且经过统计分析,它们具有很好的相关性,即在代表流域内使用FAO Penman修正式计算出参考作物蒸散量之后,再乘以一个折算系数(如0.84),即可得到与FAO Penman-Monteith公式的计算值较为相近的结果;而Priestley-Taylor公式的计算值与FAO Penman-Monteith公式的计算值相比,差异比较显著.分析其原因,我们认为是由于Priestley-Taylor公式没有考虑空气动力项对参考作物蒸散量的影响.因此,如果在华北山区使用Priestley-Taylor公式计算参考作物蒸散量,必须根据季节对公式中的常数项α重新进行修正.本文通过对2003年8月～2004年8月期间逐日计算得到的ET0(P-T)和ET0(P-M)值进行对比分析后,给出了修正后的不同季节的α值,为华北山区计算作物蒸散量提供了依据.     

西北地区生长季参考作物蒸散变化成因的定量分析

基于FAO Penman-Monteith 公式计算了我国西北地区126 个测站1961-2009 年的生长季(4-10 月) 参考作物蒸散(ET₀) 对平均气温、风速、相对湿度和太阳辐射的敏感系数,并结合各气象因子的多年变化特征定量讨论参考作物蒸散变化的原因。结果表明：风速和气温的敏感性虽然相对较低,但因其显著变化,成为引起ET₀变化的主导因子,贡献达到-5.22%和3.29%;太阳辐射和相对湿度敏感性较大,但因变化小,贡献仅为-0.76%和0.63%。空间上,气温在西北地区对ET₀ 变化多为正贡献,风速和太阳辐射多为负贡献;相对湿度在西部多为负贡献,东部为正贡献。估算的4 个气象因子共同作用引起的ET₀变化在趋势、数值和空间分布上均与ET₀的实际变化基本一致,两者的相关系数高达0.99,表明结合敏感性分析和气象因子的多年变化来解释西北地区ET₀变化的原因兼具合理性和可行性。而且该方法弥补了趋势分析法、相关分析法和敏感性分析法的不足,为定量分析ET₀变化成因提供一条新思路     

绿洲灌区参考作物蒸散量的测算

参考作物蒸散量(ET0)是计算作物需水量的关键因子,目前计算ET0最准确的方法主要是FAO Penman-Monteith模型,但该模型需要大量的参数而在有些地区难以应用。为了寻求利用有限参数确定ET0的适用方法,将模拟蒸散仪（Simulated ETgage Atmometer）实测ET0值与FAO Penman-Monteith等7种常用的、参数需求不同的模型计算的ET0值进行了比较研究。结果表明:①模拟蒸散仪实测ET0值与FAO Penman-Monteith模型计算结果非常接近,说明绿洲灌区ET0可以用模拟蒸散仪直接测定,若参数齐全也可用FAO Penman-Monteith模型直接计算;②如果有效参数仅可满足Hargreaves模型计算需求,也可用该模型计算ET0,但在精确的灌溉设计和农田水量平衡测算中该模型计算的5—8月值需要降低5.2%;③建立了Jensen-Haise、FAO-17 Penman、FAO-24 Radiation等模型的修正模型,若有效参数仅能满足这些模型的计算需求,就可用这些修正模型准确计算试区ET0;④Makkink模型和Priestley-Taylor模型不能用于试区ET0的准确计算。     

参考作物蒸散量计算方法的比较研究

应用FAO Penman-Monteith公式、Priestley-Taylor公式、Makkink公式、Penman公式和FAO-24 Blaney-Criddle公式等5种方法计算了奈曼地区的参考作物蒸散量,对5种方法的计算结果进行了比较研究,结果表明Penman公式和FAO-24 Blaney-Criddle公式得到的参考作物蒸散量与FAO Penman-Monteith模型结果相近,Priestley-Taylor公式和Makkink公式的计算结果偏差较大,导致不同模型计算偏差的原因是5种模型各自选用了不同的辐射项和动力项计算式。     

黄河上游地区几种参考作物蒸散量计算方法的适用性比较

验证参考作物蒸散量模拟方法的适用性,对于加强水资源管理和指导生态建设具有重要理论意义和应用价值。根据黄河上游地区50 a来10个站点的逐日气象资料,以FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith（P-M）方法为标准,验证11种参考作物蒸散量计算方法在该区域的适用性。分别在月尺度和年尺度计算了各方法与P-M方法之间的相关性和均方根误差,结果表明：基于辐射的Priestley-Taylor和Makkink方法与P-M方法具有一致性,在黄河上游地区具有较好的应用前景;Priestley-Taylor方法更适宜于在月尺度上计算整个区域的参考作物蒸散量,而Makkink方法在高寒地区的生长季的适用性更强。基于温度的Thornthwaite、McCloud、Blaney-Criddle和Holdridge方法在黄河上游地区的适用性较差,低估了ET₀,主要原因是其无法反映研究区域气温低但辐射强的气候特征。     

用多变量灰色预测模型模拟预测参考作物蒸散量的研究

当观测资料的数据量少而又存在多个相互影响或关联的变量时,常用的灰色预测模型GM（1,1）不能全面考虑多个变量。为此,采用自适应MGM（1,n）模型—多变量灰色预测模型,较好地解决了这一问题。针对一些地区气象数据较少甚至缺失的情况,以内蒙古正蓝旗的气象资料用Penman-Monteith计算的参考作物蒸散量（ET0）为研究对象,运用灰色系统理论建立MGM（1,3）模型,模拟预测参考作物蒸散量变化规律,并与GM（1,1）模型和BP神经网络模型比较,结果表明MGM（1,3）模型有较好的预测效果。     

1960-2008年黑河流域参考作物蒸发蒸腾量的时空变化

利用1960 - 2008年黑河流域16个气象站的逐日气象资料,采用FAO推荐的Penman -Monteith公式计算流域参考作物蒸发蒸腾量(ET0),在此基础上运用IDW插值法进行空间插值,对黑河流域ET0的时空分布和变化趋势进行了分析,并采用多元回归分析法对影响ET0变化的主导因素进行了探讨.结果表明:黑河流域E...     

Quantitative estimation of climate change effects on potential evapotranspiration in Beijing during 1951-2010

Climate change is likely to affect hydrological cycle through precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture etc. In the present study, an attempt has been made to study the climate change and the sensitivity of estimated evapotranspiration to each climatic variable for a semi-arid region of Beijing in North China using data set from 1951 to 2010. Penman-Monteith method was used to calculate reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo). Changes of ETo to each climatic variable was estimated using a sensitivity analysis method proposed in this study. Results show that in the past 60 years, mean temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) were significantly increasing, relative humidity and sunshine hours were significantly decreasing, and wind speed greatly oscillated without a significant trend. Total precipitation was significantly decreasing in corn season (from June to September), but it was increasing in wheat season (from October to next May). The change rates of temperature, relative humidity, VPD, wind speed, annual total precipitation, sunshine hours and solar radiation were 0.42℃, 1.47%, 0.04 kPa, 0.05 m·s-1, 25.0 mm, 74.0 hours and 90.7 MJ·m-2 per decade, respectively. In the past 60 years, yearly ETo was increasing with a rate of 19.5 mm per decade, and total ETos in wheat and corn seasons were increasing with rates of 13.1 and 5.3 mm per decade, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that mean air temperature was the first key factor for ETo change in the past 60 years, causing an annual total ETo increase of 7.4%, followed by relative humidity (5.5%) and sunshine hours (-3.1%); the less sensitivity factors were wind speed (0.7%), minimum temperature (-0.3%) and maximum temperature (-0.2%). A greater reduction of total ETo (12.3%) in the past 60 years was found in wheat season, mainly because of mean temperature (8.6%) and relative humidity (5.4%), as compared to a reduction of 6.0% in ETo during corn season due to sunshine hours (-6.9%), relative humidity (4.7%) and temperature (4.5%). Increasing precipitation in the wheat season will improve crop growth, while decreasing precipitation and increasing ETo in the corn season induces a great pressure for local government and farmers to use water more efficiently by widely adopting water-saving technologies in the future.     

科尔沁沙地农田玉米耗水规律研究

首先采用波文比-能量平衡法分析了科尔沁沙地农田玉米(Zeamays L.)不同发育阶段晴天的能量分配特征,在此基础上估算了玉米的蒸散量,并对估算结果和蒸渗仪测定结果进行比较,最后运用作物蒸散量和参考作物蒸散量计算了玉米的作物系数。结果表明:①在玉米的整个生长过程中,能量交换以水分蒸散耗热为主;②根据试验年份的降雨分布情况,该地区的自然降水不能满足玉米对水分需求,玉米各生育阶段水分亏缺比较严重;③科尔沁地区玉米4个生长阶段(苗期、营养期、生殖期、成熟期)的作物系数分别为0.52、0.90、1.13和0.64;④波文比能量平衡法可以较准确的估算玉米农田晴天时的蒸散量。     

阿克苏河流域气候变化对潜在蒸散量影响评价(英文)

Evapotranspiration is one of the key components of hydrological processes. Assessing the impact of climate factors on evapotranspiration is helpful in understanding the impact of climate change on hydrological processes. In this paper, based on the daily meteorological data from 1960 to 2007 within and around the Aksu River Basin, reference evapotranspiration (RET) was estimated with the FAO Penman-Monteith method. The temporal and spatial variations of RET were analyzed by using ARCGIS and Mann-Kendall method. Multiple Regression Analysis was employed to attribute the effects of the variations of air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, vapour pressure and wind speed on RET. The results showed that average annual RET in the eastern plain area of the Aksu River Basin was about 1100 mm, which was nearly twice as much as that in the western mountainous area. The trend of annual RET had significant spatial variability. Annual RET was reduced significantly in the southeastern oasis area and southwestern plain area and increased slightly in the mountain areas. The amplitude of the change of RET reached the highest in summer, contributing most of the annual change of RET. Except in some high elevation areas where relative humidity predominated the change of the RET, the variations of wind velocity predominated the changes of RET almost throughout the basin. Taking Kuqa and Ulugqat stations as an example, the variations of wind velocity accounted for more than 50% of the changes of RET.     

阿克苏河流域气候变化对潜在蒸散量影响评价(英文)

Evapotranspiration is one of the key components of hydrological processes. Assessing the impact of climate factors on evapotranspiration is helpful in understanding the impact of climate change on hydrological processes. In this paper, based on the daily meteorological data from 1960 to 2007 within and around the Aksu River Basin, reference evapotranspiration (RET) was estimated with the FAO Penman-Monteith method. The temporal and spatial variations of RET were analyzed by using ARCGIS and Mann-Kendall met...     

Spatial and temporal variations and controlling factors of potential evapotranspiration in China: 1956-2000

Based on the climatic data of 580 stations in China during 1956 and 2000, potential evapotranspiration are calculated using the Penman-Monteith Method recommended by FAO. The spatial and temporal distributions of the potential evapotranspiration over China and the temporal trends of the regional means for 10 major river basins and whole China are analyzed. Through a partial correlation analysis, the major climate factors which affect the temporal change of the potential evapotranspiration are analyzed. Major results are drawn as follows: 1) The seasonal and annual potential evapotranspiration for China as a whole and for most basins show decline tendencies during the past 45 years; for the Songhua River Basin there appears a slightly increasing trend. 2) Consequently, the annual potential evapotranspirations averaged over 1980-2000 are lower than those for the first water resources assessment (1956-1979) in most parts of China. Exceptions are found in some areas of Shandong Peninsula, western and middle basins of the rivers in Southwest China, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region as well as the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers, which may have brought about disadvantages to the exploration and utilization of water resources. 3) Generally, sunshine duration, wind speed and relative humidity have greater impact on the potential evapotranspiration than temperature. Decline tendencies of sunshine duration and/or wind speed in the same period appear to be the major causes for the negative trend of the potential evapotranspiration in most areas.     

Hargreaves公式在塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地的适用性

对运用Hargreaves公式计算参考作物蒸散量(ET0)在干旱区的适用性存在不同观点。为了求证Hargreaves公式在极端干旱区塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地的适用性,利用2005-2010年塔克拉玛干沙漠研究站的气象资料,以利用Penman-Monteith公式计算的结果为标准,对利用Hargreaves公式计算的ET0进行了对比分析,并对两种计算结果差异的成因进行了阐释。结果表明:在年时间尺度上,利用Hargreaves公式计算的结果略大于利用Penman-Monteith公式计算的结果,标准差介于32.86~35.00 mm,年参考作物蒸散量计算结果呈现弱变异程度;在月时间尺度上,用两种方法计算的参考作物蒸散量呈现中等变异程度,蒸散量绝对偏差介于-3.26~8.73 mm,相对偏差介于-12.20%~29.02%,除了10月与11月,其余月份相对偏差均保持在10%之内。用两种方法计算的10月与11月份ET0产生差异的最主要原因在于有较高的温度较差。最后,经过对年、月参考作物蒸散量进行t-检验及建立回归方程,表明Hargreaves公式适用于极端干旱的塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地。     

基于SWH模型的青藏高原高寒草甸蒸散发及其组分变化分析

基于Shuttleworth-Wallace Hu（SWH）双源蒸散模型对青藏高原那曲、纳木错、藏东南站蒸散发进行估算,在结果验证良好基础上,对青藏高原蒸散发变化特征及各站主要影响因素进行了分析。结果表明：SWH模型在青藏高原3个草甸站适用性良好;年蒸散发介于388~732 mm之间,年内分布呈先增大后减小特征;3站蒸散发组分差异较大,那曲站和纳木错站土壤蒸发对蒸散总量的贡献分别为53%和56%,藏东南站蒸散发则几乎全部由植被蒸腾贡献,占比高达95%;植被叶面积指数为3站蒸散发最主要的影响因素,饱和水汽压差对藏东南站蒸散发影响也较大。研究结果可对青藏高原蒸散发及其组分时空格局与水循环过程研究提供科学依据。