A formal approach to hydrological model conceptualization

Abstract

A two-stage formal approach to hydrological model conceptualization is described. The approach requires the definition of hydrological variables in terms of states and rates, the construction of state-rate diagrams and the definition of equations for the rates based on an indepth understanding of the related hydrological processes. It is inferred that the approach can help modellers arrive at models which are conceptually more feasible for operational use and for theoretical studies. STELLA, a programme specifically designed to facilitate model conceptualization using this approach, is also briefly described. The use of the two stage formal approach with STELLA will be an excellent teaching tool for hydrological modelling.     

Toxicity of Interactions of Zinc —Nickel,Copper —Nickel and Zinc —Nickel —Copper to a Freshwater Teleost,Lebistes reticulatus (PETERS)1

The lethal toxicity of mixtures of Zn²⁺ —Ni²⁺, Cu²⁺ —Ni²⁺ and Zn²⁺ —Cu²⁺ —Ni²⁺ to common guppy at 21£C in hard water (total hardness = 260 mg/l as CaCO₃) was studied under static bioassays test conditions with renewal of the test solutions every 24 h. The heavy metals were tested separately and in mixtures. The 48 h median lethal concentrations (LC₅₀) for individual salts were 75 mg/l Zn²⁺, 37 mg/l for Ni²⁺ and 2.5 mg/l for Cu²⁺. Concentrations were expressed in “toxic units” by taking them as proportions of LC₅₀ values. Experiments showed that in the Zn²⁺-Ni²⁺ mixture, when Ni²⁺ was more in proportion, the toxicity was more than additive. The 48 h LC₅₀ value and 95% confidence limits in the Ni²⁺-Cu²⁺ mixture were 0.684 (0.484 … 0.807) toxic units and the mixture produced more than the additive toxicity (synergism.). The LC₅₀ value and its 95% confidence limits in a Zn²⁺?Cu²⁺?Ni²⁺ mixture also suggested that the mixture was again strictly additive. The results indicate that heavy metallic mixtures would pose a greater toxicological danger to fish than the respective individual metals.     

A contour-based topographic model for hydrological and ecological applications

A digital model for discretizing three-dimensional terrain into small irregularly shaped polygons or elements based on contour lines and their orthogonals is described. From this subdivision the model estimates a number of topographic attributes for each element including the total upslope contributing area, element area, slope, and aspect. This form of discretization of a catchment produces natural units for problems involving water flow as either a surface or subsurface flow phenomenon. The model therefore has wide potential application for representing the three-dimensionality of natural terrain and water flow processes in the fields of hydrology, sedimentology, and geomorphology. Three example applications are presented and discussed. They are the prediction of zones of surface saturation, the prediction of the distribution of potential daily solar radiation, and the prediction of zones of erosion and deposition in a catchment.     

A data-based regional scale autoregressive rainfall-runoff model: a study from the Odra River

This paper aims to compare the performances of multivariate autoregressive (MAR) techniques and univariate autoregressive (AR) methods applied to regional scale rainfall-runoff modelling. We focus on the case study from the upper and middle reaches of the Odra River with its main tributaries in SW Poland. The rivers drain both the mountains (the Sudetes) and the lowland (Nizina Śląska). The region is exposed to extreme hydrologic and meteorological events, especially rain-induced and snow-melt floods. For the analysis, four hydrologic and meteorological variables are chosen, i.e., discharge (17 locations), precipitation (7 locations), thickness of snow cover (7 locations) and groundwater level (1 location). The time period is November 1971–December 1981 and the temporal resolution of the time series is of 1 day. Both MAR and AR models of the same orders are fitted to various subsets of the data and subsequently forecasts of discharge are derived. In order to evaluate the predictions the stepwise procedure is applied to make the validation independent of the specific sample path of the stochastic process. It is shown that the model forecasts peak discharges even 2–4 days in advance in the case of both rain-induced and snow-melt peak flows. Furthermore, the accuracy of discharge predictions increases if one analyses the combined data on discharge, precipitation, snow cover, and groundwater level instead of the pure discharge multivariate time series. MAR-based discharge forecasts based on multivariate data on discharges are more accurate than AR-based univariate predictions for a year with a flood, however, this relation is reverse in the case of the free-of-flooding year. In contrast, independently of the occurrence of floods within a year, MAR-based discharge forecasts based on discharges, precipitation, snow cover, and groundwater level are more precise than AR-based predictions.     

A simplified climate model with combined atmospheric-hydrological processes

Abstract

Global climate change can be reproduced in detail by using three-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs). However, such complex models require super-computers and extensive hours of computational time for a single attempt at reproducing long term climate change. An alternative approach is to make simplifying assumptions that retain the essential physics for the desired simulation. Energy balance and Radiative-convective models are examples of such models. The model in this study follows the simplified approach using physics-based climate processes as well as interactions between atmospheric and hydrological processes. The vertically and latitudinally averaged mean temperature and mean water vapour content between 30°N-50°N latitudes are considered as atmospheric state variables while soil and sea temperatures and water storage amount are considered for describing the behaviour of the hydrological system. Temperatures in both the atmosphere and ground are calculated by a thermal energy equation that considers the physically-based processes of shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, sensible heat flux, and latent heat flux. Precipitation and evaporation processes transport moisture between the atmosphere and ground. In this study, the radiation parameterization of the simplified climate model is tested in the investigation of the various effects of global warming due to doubling and quadrupling of CO₂. Changes of temperature, soil water content, evaporation rate and precipitation rate are investigated by numerical experiments. The simplified climate model provides acceptable simulation of climate change and holds promise for practical investigations such as the interactions of physical processes in the evolution of drought phenomena.     

A deductive model of karst evolution based on hydrological probability

Combination of a conduit flow law with the exceedance probability of stream discharge allows the estimation of the exceedance probability of water level in a simple conduit aquifer. The probability of water levels higher than available relief is interpreted as the probability of surface as opposed to underground runoff. Very high probability of surface runoff implies a fluvial environment, whereas very low probabilities define a mature karst or ‘holokarst’, Intermediate probabilities identify ‘fluviokarst’. Overflow probability depends on available relief, mean discharge, and especially conduit radius. Growth rate of the underground conduit depends on saturation deficit which thus controls the rate of evolution of the fluvial landscape, through fluviokarst to holokarst. However, variations of discharge and sedimentation through time can cause dramatic reversion of karst drainage into less mature states. Landscapes experiencing such periodic rejuvenation will have a confused morphology. A functional definition of landscape may be more objective and pertinent than arbitrary interpretation of form.     

PREFERENTIAL WATER FLOW IN A FROZEN SOIL — A TWO-DOMAIN MODEL APPROACH

Earlier modelling studies have shown the difficulty of accurately simulating snowmelt infiltration into frozen soil using the hydraulic model approach. Comparison of model outputs and field measurements have inferred the occurrence of rapid flow even during periods when the soil is still partly frozen. A one-dimensional, physically based soil water and heat model (SOIL) has been complemented with a new two-domain approach option to simulate preferential flow through frozen layers. The ice is assumed to be first formed at the largest water filled pore upon freezing. Infiltrating water may be conducted rapidly through previously air-filled pores which are not occupied by ice. A minor fraction of water is slowly transferred within the liquid water domain, which is absorbed by the solid particles. A model validation with field measurements at a location in the middle-east of Sweden indicated that the two-domain approach was suitable for improving the prediction of drainage during snowmelting. In particular, the correlation between simulated and observed onset of drainage in spring was improved. The validation also showed that the effect of the high flow domain was highly sensitive to the degree of saturation in the topsoil during freezing, as well as to the hydraulic properties at the lower frost boundary regulating the upward water flow to the frozen soil and ice formation.     

Wasserqualität durch höhere Wasserpflanzen. — Übersicht zur ökotechnologischen Anwendung —

Improving Water Quality by submerged and emergent Macrophytes. — A Review of Ecotechnological Application. Measures of ecotechnology using submerged and emergent macrophytes in native stands or planted littoral stands on the one hand, ingenious swimming plant mats on the other, may be assessed to be successful if applied in combination with additional measures, for instance — reorganization (sanition) of all the area collecting water — biomanipulation of pelagic food chains. Plantation of submerged macrophytes as oxygenators in standing and impounded waters to improve water quality should be avoided. To the contrary, the strategy should be taking measures in order to maximize the light penetrated euphotic zone (z_eu) and simultaneously minimize the mixed zone (z_mix) in order to improve spontaneous settlements of submerged macrophyte stands.     

An improved numerical implementation of Calder's stochastic model of rainfall interception — a note

Two stratagems are described that are necessary to ensure the successful implementation of Calder's stochastic model of rainfall interception for high-intensity rain storms in which condensation occurs over prolonged periods.     

A PCM-based stochastic hydrological model for uncertainty quantification in watershed systems

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - In this study, an uncertainty quantification framework is proposed for hydrologic models based on probabilistic collocation method (PCM). The...     

Tarawera 1886, New Zealand — A basaltic plinian fissure eruption

New Zealand's biggest and most destructive volcanic eruption of historical times was that of Tarawera in 1886. The resulting scoria fall has a dispersal very similar in extent to that of the Vesuvius A.D. 79 pumice fall and is one of the few known examples of a basaltic deposit of plinian type. A new estimate of the volume (2 km³) is significantly greater than previous estimates. The basalt came mainly from a 7-km length of fissure, and emission and exit velocity were fairly uniform along at least 4 km of it, this is one of the few documented examples of a plinian eruption from a fissure vent. Primary welding of the scoria fall resulted where the accumulation rate exceeded about 250 mm min⁻¹. A model of the eruption dynamics is proposed which leads to an estimate of 28 km for the height of the eruption cloud and implies a magma volatile fraction of 1.5–3%. Violent phreatic explosions occurred in the southwestern extension of the fissure across the Rotomahana geothermal field, and it is thought that some of the water responsible for the power of the plinian eruption came from this source, though its amount was not sufficient to turn the eruption into a phreatoplinian one.     

Parameter regionalization of the FLEX-Global hydrological model

Global hydrological models(GHMs) are important tools for addressing worldwide change-related water resource problems from a global perspective. However, the development of these models has long been hindered by their low accuracy. In order to improve the streamflow simulation accuracy of GHMs, we developed a GHM—the FLEX-Global—based on the regionalization of hydrological model parameters. The FLEX-Global model is primarily based on the framework of the FLEX hydrological model coupled with the HAND-based Storage Capacity curve(HSC) runoff generation module to calculate net rainfall, and uses the global river-routing Ca Ma-Flood model to calculate river network routing. This new model allows for streamflow simulation at a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° and a temporal resolution of 1 day in global catchments. To validate FLEX-Global accuracy, the FLEX-Global-simulated streamflow of 26 major rivers distributed in five different climate zones was compared with the observed data from the Global Runoff Data Center(GRDC). Next, the model performance of FLEXGlobal was further verified by comparing it with that of seven existing GHMs with varying accuracy in the five climate zones.Multi-metric evaluation indicated that the streamflow simulation accuracy was improved by the FLEX-Global model with regionalized parameters, especially in the tropical and dry climate zones. This newly-developed GHM with regionalized parameters can provide scientific support for the assessment of climate change impact, optimization of global water resource mangement, simulation of Earth's multi-sphere coupling, and implementation of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project(ISIMIP).     

A response-based simplified model for vertical vibrations of embedded foundations

A simplified damped oscillator model is proposed to simulate unbounded soil for the vertical vibration analysis of rigid embedded foundations. Based on the dynamic responses of a foundation–soil system, an optimal equivalent model is determined as the best simplified model. Magnification responses of a foundation–soil system simulated by the optimal equivalent model are well consistent with those obtained by the half-space theory and by a widely used computer program even as embedment depth or vibrating mass increases. The optimal equivalent model utilizing only three parameters can result in responses as accurate as the existing models, which use more parameters. This proposed method uses much simpler procedure than optimization techniques used by most existing discrete models. This proposed method may also be easily and accurately applied to practical soil–structure interaction analysis.     

A simplified model for analysis and design of asymmetric-plan buildings

A new simplified model for analysis and design of multistorey buildings is developed. The model is based on a single super-element per building storey capable of representing the elastic and inelastic properties of the storey. This is done by matching the stiffness matrices and ultimate yield surface of the storey with that of the element; this surface relates storey shear and storey torque. For practical convenience, these surfaces are parametrized in terms of seven important physical parameters controlling the seismic response of asymmetric structures. Several numerical studies showed that the accuracy of the super-element model is satisfactory for most design purposes; the errors in peak responses are expected to be less than 20 per cent for most practical structures. Among the important advantages of this simplified model is that the time required in formulating, analysing and interpreting the structural model and its response is at least an order of magnitude smaller than for any conventional 3-D inelastic model. This enables the engineer to try different structural configurations and, thus, produce designs that have the desired seismic behaviour and are cost-effective. Furthermore, it has been shown through a multistorey building example that the super-element model is a powerful tool for conceptual design of a building. In spite of its simplicity, the model uses an accurate representation of the storey-shear and torque surfaces, which enables it to capture the fundamental features controlling the inelastic behaviour of the building.     

Common-reflection-surface stack — a real data example

The simulation of a zero-offset (ZO) stack section from multi-coverage reflection data is a standard imaging method in seismic processing. It significantly reduces the amount of data and increases the signal-to-noise ratio due to constructive interference of correlated events. Conventional imaging methods, e.g., normal moveout (NMO)/dip moveout (DMO)/stack or pre-stack migration, require a sufficiently accurate macro-velocity model to yield appropriate results, whereas the recently introduced common-reflection-surface stack does not depend on a macro-velocity model. For two-dimensional seismic acquisition, its stacking operator depends on three wavefield attributes and approximates the kinematic multi-coverage reflection response of curved interfaces in laterally inhomogeneous media. The common-reflection-surface stack moveout formula defines a stacking surface for each particular sample in the ZO section to be simulated. The stacking surfaces that fit best to actual events in the multi-coverage data set are determined by means of coherency analysis. In this way, we obtain a coherency section and a section of each of the three wavefield attributes defining the stacking operator. These wavefield attributes characterize the curved interfaces and, thus, can be used for a subsequent inversion. In this paper, we focus on an application to a real land data set acquired over a salt dome. We propose three separate one-parametric search and coherency analyses to determine initial common-reflection-surface stack parameters. Optionally, a subsequent optimization algorithm can be performed to refine these initial parameters. The simulated ZO section obtained by the common-reflection-surface stack is compared to the result of a conventional NMO/DMO/stack processing sequence. We observe an increased signal-to-noise ratio and an improved continuity along the events for our proposed method — without loss of lateral resolution.