气候标准序列变率

首先,综论已有气候序列变率的各种量数,提出气候标准序列变率和推导其与他种序列变率间的关系,以资比较。然后,推导了气候标准序列变率抽样分布的参数(平均数与方差),并证明了在正态假设下这些参数的简化结果和气候标准序列变率抽样分布函数中的参数是一致的。这些是本文的重点。最后,应用气候标准序列变率的一些统计理论说明其在资料统计方面的实用价值,指出其优越性。气候标准序列变率不仅可以分析气候特征,它可以用于研究气候变迁与旱涝规律,以及用于气候统计予报。     

对流参数气候特征在短期预报中的应用

利用对流参数气候特征,可以判断对流天气出现的可能性,进而提高预报时效。以2004年和2005年6－8月石家庄17个地面站观测资料和邢台站高空探测资料为例,计算了对流有效位能（CAPE）、沙氏指数（SI）、K指数（KI）和对流性稳定度指数（IC）等对流参数的气候平均值（气候特征）,求取雷暴日和强雷暴日各对流参数的平均值。结果表明：不同的月份与不同强度对流天气的气候特征有明显差别。计算了2006年7月逐日4个时次的对流参数,并分析这些参数和石家庄天气的关系表明：CAPE和SI能够较好的反映出强对流的一些特征;02时和14时加密探空资料弥补了08时和20时时间间隔较长的缺陷,对提高对流天气的短期和短时预报水平,有着十分重要的意义。     

厄尔尼诺年的预测和它与长江中下游气象灾害的关系

利用浙北地区的气象资料,分析了厄尔尼诺现象与长江中下游气象灾害的关系和厄尔尼诺现象与它的前期一些特定的气候条件的关系.分析结果表明,后者有很好的对应关系,它为预测厄尔尼诺现象提供一个科学的依据.     

南亚高压活动特征及其天气气候影响研究进展

南亚高压是夏季亚洲南部对流层上层和平流层底层的一个强大而稳定的大气活动中心,是副热带高压系统中的一个重要成员,它与夏季北半球大气环流和亚洲区域天气气候关系密切.关于南亚高压的研究,气象学者进行了很多研究工作,取得一些开创性成果,并逐渐认识到南亚高压的演变对北半球及我国天气气候的重要性.通过总结南亚高压的形成原因、结构,季节变化、年际变化、东西振荡及其对我国天气、气候的影响等方面的研究成果,简要回顾了近几十年极涡的研究及其与南亚高压的一些初步关系,指出这两个系统之间的相互作用、变化规律和异常特征存在的具体关系,是一个研究较少的重要问题,应加强这方面的研究.     

雷暴天气过程中地闪分布的诊断分析

尝试将地闪的具体位置与一些气象参数的分布结合起来,分析了地闪位置与200 hPa高空急流、850 hPa水汽通量散度和总温度、通气管指数、K指数、风暴相对螺旋度分布的关系.发现除风暴相对螺旋度外,其它参数与地闪分布关系密切.进一步分析了一次雷暴个例,讨论了系统发展不同时期,地闪与各参数的分布特点.发现地闪集中区域向东南方向的迁移与一些参数大值中心的东南进或东移有很好的对应关系.这些结论对地闪闪区的预报和监测有非常好的指导意义.     

行星与气候关系研究评述

行星与气候关系的研究由来已久,迄今已在多个方面取得进展:行星长期摄动可使地球轨道参数发生变化导致冰河期和间冰期的重大差别;九星地心会聚的力矩效应可引起历史气候的百年和千年振动;行星的短期效应,通过它与月亮(或太阳)、地球成直线时的非经典引力效应而触发天气变化;还可能存在行星日心会聚对太阳活动的触发或调制作用再影响地球气候;以及行星近地效应等方面.至于"行星对应区"方法,则其统计关系是不显著的.还须看到,行星与气候关系仅是天文气象边缘领域研究的组成部分之一.     

四川省气温空间分布回归模型及月变化特征分析

在利用Gis进行立体农业气候区划时,常用气候要素与地理参数的多元回归方程推估地表栅格尺度气候要素的空间分布.在多元回归方程中,气候要素随地理参数经度、纬度和高度变化的系数,即要素在三维地球表面不同方向上的变化梯度,对气候要素的空间分布起着决定性作用.本文利用四川省157个气象站的各月累年平均气温,建立了它们与地理参数的多元回归模型,分析了月平均气温空间变化梯度随季节变化的特点,这对利用Gis建立气温空间分布的栅格图层,有着十分重要的作用.     

云南年雨量空间结构的趋势面分析

一、引言 关于年总降水量R(最重要的气候参数之一)与各种地理因素的关系,人们虽然早已进行了许多研究,但欲客观细致地模拟R的空间结构,至今仍非易事。这是因为R是个非常复杂的函数,它不仅决定于测点的地理位置V(λ,φ),而且还与多变的地形因素有密切关系。其中拔海高度H,易于用有关参数直接表达,它与降水的关系近年各地也常有报导。但另外一些影     

金华市旱涝气候影响因子分析

着重分析了大气环流演变、太阳活动、厄尔尼诺现象、各类节气月相等与金华市旱涝气候之间的统计关系,为旱涝气候预测提供了一些物理依据。     

生物圈与气候

本文评述了研究生物圈在气候形成中作用的一些结果,指出气候理论发展的一个新阶段已经开始,用实例说明必须考虑各种生物圈过程。这一点因必须更充分地考虑各种陆面过程,以及显然需要考虑生物地球化学循环与气候之间的相互作用而得到证实。文中讨论了把生物圈看作是气候形成因子的各种途径,数值模拟的一些结果,以及利用地面和卫星联合观测资料确定那些表征大气与生物圈之间相互作用的参数的可能性。     

Basis of a formal language for facilitating communication among climate modelers

The objective of this work is to present the basis for a formal language that aims to express in a concise way some fundamental beliefs held within the climate research community. The expression of this set of beliefs takes the form of relations, conjectures or propositions that describe characteristics of different aspects of climate modeling. Examples are constructed using topics that are much discussed within the climate modeling community. The article first introduces, as elements of this formal language, models considered a priori (the model as a code or algorithm) or a posteriori (the model as output), and then presents different relations between these elements. The most important relation is that of dominance, which helps to define the superiority of one model over another based on which model a rational agent will choose. Various kinds of dominance are considered. Also presented in a formal language are propositions and conjectures relating to model development, model calibration and climate change ensemble projections, each of which are held with diverse levels of acceptance within the climate modeling community. In addition, the relevance of defining elements—models—whose existence is improbable, such as bug-free model versions, is discussed. Although the potential value of this language is shown, there remains a need to improve the definitions presented here, as some of them remain unsatisfying. Still, we believe that this attempt may help us not only communicate more clearly but also to better distinguish different schools of thought that currently exist within the community.     

Agrarian stress and climate change in the Eastern Gangetic Plains: Gendered vulnerability in a stratified social formation

This paper reviews the complex impact of climate change on gender relations and associated vulnerability on the Eastern Gangetic Plains of Nepal and India. Field research has identified that gendered vulnerability to climate change is intricately connected to local and macro level political economic processes. Rather than being a single driver of change, climate is one among several stresses on agriculture, alongside a broader set of non-climatic processes. While these pressures are linked to large scale political–economic processes, the response on the ground is mediated by the local level relations of class and caste, creating stratified patterns of vulnerability. The primary form of gendered vulnerability in the context of agrarian stress emerges from male out-migration, which has affected the distribution of labour and resources. While migration occurs amongst all socio-economic groups, women from marginal farmer and tenant households are most vulnerable. While the causes of migration are only indirectly associated with climate change, migration itself is rendering women who are left behind from marginal households, more vulnerable to ecological shocks such as droughts due to the sporadic flow of income and their reduced capacity for investment in off-farm activities. It is clear that policies and initiatives to address climate change in stratified social formations such as the Eastern Gangetic Plains, will be ineffective without addressing the deeper structural intersections between class, caste and gender.     

云南月气候变化的一种多时间序列预测模型

为了充分利用过去和现在对气候系统进行定时观测而积累的大量数据 ,本文提出了月气候变化的一种多时间序列逐月滚动预测模型 ,并从与云南月气候变化有某种物理关系的 2 0多个时间序列出发 ,实际建立了一个云南月气候变化的多时间序列逐月滚动预测模型。在提前预测的时间尺度为 2个月的条件下 ,该模型对云南 80个气象观测站点 1995年 1月— 1999年 10月的逐月雨量和气温预测结果检验的最新业务标准评分平均可分别达到 6 6 .7%和 79.0 %。该评分成绩已明显高于云南省气象台目前的实际业务预测水平 ,并达到了“九五”攻关的目标要求 ,因此该模型的建立具有重要的实际意义     

Environmentalities of urban climate governance in Maputo,Mozambique

Interest in the role that cities can play in climate change as sites of transformation has increased but research has been limited in its practical applications and there has been limited consideration of how policies and technologies play out. These challenges necessitate a re-thinking of existing notions of urban governance in order to account for the practices that emerge from governments and a plethora of other actors in the context of uncertainty. We understand these practices to constitute adaptive governance, underpinned by social learning guiding the actions of the multiplicity of actors. The aim here is to unpack how social learning for adaptive governance requires attention to competing understandings of risk and identity, and the multiplicity of mechanisms in which change occurs or is blocked in urban climate governance. We adopt a novel lens of ‘environmentalities’ which allows us to assess the historical and institutional context and power relations in the informal settlements of Maputo, Mozambique. Our findings highlight how environmental identities around urban adaptation to climate change are constituted in the social and physical divisions between the formal and informal settlements, whilst existing knowledge models prioritise dominant economic and political interests and lead to the construction of new environmental subjects. While the findings of this study are contextually distinct, the generalizable lessons are that governance of urban adaptation occurs and is solidified within a complex multiplicity of socio-ecological relations.     

气候变化与冰川演变的研究进展

在气候变化影响的诸环境系统中，冰冻圈首当其冲。冰冻圈不仅对全球变暖的敏感性最高、变化最快、最明显，而且人类对它的变化很难采取有效的防范措施，因此，它被认为是最容蝗受到气候变化损害的脆弱环，尤其是山地冰川，其进退这变化就是对气候变化的响应，正因如此，对冰川及其与气候变化的关系研究越来越为人们所关注。     

On climate change and cultural geography: farming on the Lizard Peninsula, Cornwall, UK

Climate change as a global problem has moved relatively swiftly into high profile political debates over the last 20?years or so, with a concomitant diffusion from the natural sciences into the social sciences. The study of the human dimensions of climate change has been growing in momentum through research which attempts to describe, evaluate, quantify and model perceptions of climate change, understand more about risk and assess the construction of policy. Cultural geographers?? concerns with the construction of knowledge, the workings of social relations in space and the politics and poetics of place-based identities provide a lens through which personal, collective and institutional responses to climate change can be evaluated using critical and interpretative methodologies. Adopting a cultural geography approach, this paper examines how climate change as a particular environmental discourse is constructed through memory, observation and conversation, as well as materialised in farming practices on the Lizard Peninsula, Cornwall, UK.     

2007：气候变化年

从气候变化的角度看,2007年是具有里程碑意义的一年。无论从科学领域的最新研究成果,还是到人们的切身感受,或者到国际社会讨论的焦点问题以及应对气候变化的具体行动,2007年都将当之无愧地成为"气候变化年"。     

Systematic identification of causal relations in high-dimensional chaotic systems: application to stratosphere-troposphere coupling

Obtaining reliable causal inference is crucial for understanding the climate system. Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM), a recently developed method to infer causal relationships from time series has been shown to be superior to previous methods which are based on linearity assumptions. However, CCM has so far been only tested on low-dimensional or bivariate models, while real-world systems, like the climate system, are high-dimensional and have many more interacting variables. Here, we demonstrate that standard CCM cannot reliably infer causal relations in high-dimensional chaotic systems. However, by using a hierarchy of conceptual models and observational data we show that time-lagged CCM reliably identifies causal relationships in contrast to standard CCM and Pearson correlation. Furthermore, we systematically demonstrate that time-lagged CCM is able to identify long-distance causal interactions. Moreover, we apply time-lagged CCM to detect causal relations in stratosphere-troposphere coupling, and demonstrate the downward causal chain induced by polar vortex activity.

     

2007：气候变化年

 从气候变化的角度看,2007年是具有里程碑意义的一年。无论从科学领域的最新研究成果,还是到人们的切身感受,或者到国际社会讨论的焦点问题以及应对气候变化的具体行动,2007年都将当之无愧地成为"气候变化年"。     

和田市5O年来气候变化对绿洲生态环境建设的启示

总结和分析了和田市近50a来气候变化状况,发现和田市气候存在变暖、增湿、风速减少的趋势,认为绿洲生态环境与气候关系极为密切,并以其变化规律为依据,对和田市绿洲生态进一步建设问题,提出一些建议。