用改进的经验格林函数方法模拟唐山地震动

建筑物的抗震设防需要尽可能地掌握未来大地震强震动记录信息,但大地震强震动记录的匮乏阻碍了抗震设防实践的发展。经验格林函数方法作为模拟地震动的主要方法,可以提供可靠的大地震强震动记录,但也存在着许多问题,如缺乏对大地震断层滑动分布不均匀的描述、用经验确定小震数目、模拟方法受到大小地震相似条件的限制等。文中对上述经验格林函数方法存在的问题进行了研究,改进的经验格林函数方法,有效地解决了上述问题。并用其对唐山大地震进行了模拟,并把模拟的地震动时程和反应谱与实际记录相比较,发现用改进方法模拟的地震动加速度反应谱比用未改进方法模拟结果更接近实际的地震动记录加速度反应谱。由此说明改进的经验格林函数可更准确的模拟地震动。     

Numerical Green’s function method:Application to quantifying ground motion variations of M7 earthquakes

The concept of "numerical Green’s functions" (NGF or Green’s function database) is developed. The basic idea is: a large seismic fault is divided into subfaults of appropriate size, for which synthetic Green’s functions at the surface (NGF) are calculated and stored. Consequently, ground motions from arbitrary kinematic sources can be simulated, rapidly, for the whole fault or parts of it by superposition. The target fault is a simplified, vertical model of the Newport-Inglewood fault in the Los Angeles basin. This approach and its functionality are illustrated by investigating the variations of ground motions (e.g. peak ground velocity and synthetic seismograms) due to the source complexity. The source complexities are considered with two respects: hypocenter location and slip history. The results show a complex behavior, with dependence of absolute peak ground velocity and their variation on source process directionality, hypocenter location, local structure, and static slip asperity location. We concluded that combining effect due to 3-D structure and finite-source is necessary to quan- tify ground motion characteristics and their variations. Our results will facilitate the earthquake hazard assessment projects.     

Strong ground motion simulation of the 2003 Bam, Iran, earthquake using the empirical Green’s function method

The 2003 Bam, Iran, earthquake caused catastrophic damage to the city of Bam and neighboring villages. Given its magnitude (M _w ) of 6.5, the damage was remarkably large. Large-amplitude ground motions were recorded at the Bam accelerograph station in the center of Bam city by the Building and Housing Research Center (BHRC) of Iran. We simulated the Bam earthquake acceleration records at three BHRC strong-motion stations—Bam, Abaraq, and Mohammad-Abad—by the empirical Green’s function method. Three aftershocks were used as empirical Green’s functions. The frequency range of the empirical Green’s function simulations was 0.5–10 Hz. The size of the strong motion generation area of the mainshock was estimated to be 11 km in length by 7 km in width. To estimate the parameters of the strong motion generation area, we used 1D and 2D velocity structures across the fault and a combined source model. The empirical Green’s function method using a combination of aftershocks produced a source model that reproduced ground motions with the best fit to the observed waveforms. This may be attributed to the existence of two distinct rupture mechanisms in the strong motion generation area. We found that the rupture starting point for which the simulated waveforms best fit the observed ones was near the center of the strong motion generation area, which reproduced near-source ground motions in a broadband frequency range. The estimated strong motion generation area could explain the observed damaging ground motion at the Bam station. This suggests that estimating the source characteristics of the Bam earthquake is very important in understanding the causes of the earthquake damage.     

Stochastic finite fault modelling of M w 4.8 earthquake in Kachchh, Gujarat, India

The modified stochastic finite fault modelling technique based on dynamic corner frequency has been used to simulate the strong ground motions of M _w 4.8 earthquake in the Kachchh region of Gujarat, India. The accelerograms have been simulated for 14 strong motion accelerographs sites (11 sites in Kachchh and three sites in Saurashtra) where the earthquake has been recorded. The region-specific source, attenuation and generic site parameters, which are derived from recordings of small to moderate earthquakes, have been used for the simulations. The main characteristics of the simulated accelerograms, comprised of peak ground acceleration (pga), duration, Fourier and response spectra, predominant period, are in general in good agreement with those of observed ones at most of the sites. The rate of decay of simulated pga values with distance is found to be similar with that of observed values. The successful modelling of the empirical accelerograms indicates that the method can be used to prepare wide range of scenarios based on simulation which provide the information useful for evaluating and mitigating the seismic hazard in the region.     

Estimating ground motions using recorded accelerograms

A procedure for estimating ground motions using recorded accelerograms is described. The premise of the study is the assumption that future ground motions will be similar to those observed for similar site and tectonic situations in the past. Direct techniques for scaling existing accelerograms have been developed, based on relative estimates of local magnitude,M _L . Design events are described deterministically in terms of fault dimension, tectonic setting (stress drop), fault distance, and site conditions. A combination of empirical and theoretical arguments is used to develop relationships betweenM _L and other earthquake magnitude scales. In order to minimize scaling errors due to lack of understanding of the physics of strong ground motion, the procedure employs as few intermediate scaling laws as possible. The procedure conserves a meaningful measure of the uncertainty inherent when predicting ground motions from simple parameterizations of earthquake sources and site conditions.     

Source differentiation, modeling and simulating strong-motion data from Iran

For designing a structure to withstand the effects of strong earthquake ground motions, it is necessary to characterize the type of motion that probably affects the structure. The strong-motion accelerograms contain numerous data regarding the source, path, and receiver. Variables such as the Richter magnitude, hypocenter depth, duration of the event, and focal mechanism relate to the source. The soil parameter and distance to epicenter, relate to the path. The application of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process in modeling an earthquake accelerogram of three different regions of Iran reveals a formulation, which relates the physical variables via a regression analysis. In order to generate time history data of a probable future earthquake, it is recommended to use the regression equations for a specific type of earthquake focal mechanism if the future earthquake mechanism and physical variables are known; otherwise, regional equations are more suitable.     

Analysis of three-dimensional strong ground motions along principal axes,San Fernando earthquake

An orthogonal set of principal axes is defined for earthquake ground motions. These principal axes are obtained such that the corresponding variances of motion have maximum, minimum and intermediate values and the covariances equal zero. This indicates that the corresponding components of motion along the principal axes are uncorrelated with respect to each other. Since real earthquake accelerograms are assumed to be reasonably well represented by Gaussian random processes, the three components of motion along the principal axes are statistically independent of each other. Using these principal axes and applying the moving-window technique to the ground accelerograms recorded during the San Fernando earthquake of 9 February 1971, time-dependent characteristics of three-dimensional ground motions along principal axes are determined. Results of the analysis indicate significant correlation between directions of principal axes and directions from the recording stations to the fault slip zone. It is concluded that three components of ground motion can be generated stochastically with statistical independence being maintained, provided they are assumed to be directed along principal axes.     

Estimation of strong ground motions from hypothetical earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone,Pacific Northwest

Strong ground motions are estimated for the Pacific Northwest assuming that large shallow earthquakes, similar to those experienced in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, may also occur on the Cascadia subduction zone. Fifty-six strong motion recordings for twenty-five subduction earthquakes ofM _s7.0 are used to estimate the response spectra that may result from earthquakesM _w<81/4. Large variations in observed ground motion levels are noted for a given site distance and earthquake magnitude. When compared with motions that have been observed in the western United States, large subduction zone earthquakes produce relatively large ground motions at surprisingly large distances. An earthquake similar to the 22 May 1960 Chilean earthquake (M _w 9.5) is the largest event that is considered to be plausible for the Cascadia subduction zone. This event has a moment which is two orders of magnitude larger than the largest earthquake for which we have strong motion records. The empirical Green's function technique is used to synthesize strong ground motions for such giant earthquakes. Observed teleseismicP-waveforms from giant earthquakes are also modeled using the empirical Green's function technique in order to constrain model parameters. The teleseismic modeling in the period range of 1.0 to 50 sec strongly suggests that fewer Green's functions should be randomly summed than is required to match the long-period moments of giant earthquakes. It appears that a large portion of the moment associated with giant earthquakes occurs at very long periods that are outside the frequency band of interest for strong ground motions. Nevertheless, the occurrence of a giant earthquake in the Pacific Northwest may produce quite strong shaking over a very large region.     

Simulation of strong earthquake characteristics of a scenario earthquake (MS7.5) based on the enlightenment of 2022 MS6.9 earthquake in Menyuan

The Menyuan area is an important transportation hub in the Hexi Corridor. The Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake that occurred on January 8, 2022 had a major impact on the local infrastructure and transportation of this region. Due to the high possibility of similar strong earthquakes occurring in this area in the future, preliminary assessment of the seismic intensity characteristics of destructive earthquakes in this region is essential for effective disaster control. This paper uses the empirical Green′s function (EGF) method as a numerical simulation tool to predict the ground motion intensity of Datong Autonomous County under the action of the scenario earthquake (M_S7.5). Seismic records of aftershocks of the 2016 Menyuan M_S6.4 earthquake were used as Green’s functions for this simulation. The uncertainties associated with various source parameters were considered, and 36 possible earthquake scenarios were simulated to obtain 72 sets of horizontal ground motions in Datong County. The obtained peak ground acceleration (PGA) vs. time histories of the horizontal ground motion were screened using the attenuation relationships provided by the fifth-edition of China's Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map and the NGA-West2 dataset. Ultimately, 32 possible acceleration-time histories were selected for further analysis. The screened PGA values ranged from 78.8 to 153 cm/s². The uncertainty associated with the initial rupture point was found to greatly affect the results of the earthquake simulation. The average acceleration spectrum of the selected acceleration-time history exceeded the expected spectrum of a intermediate earthquake, which means that buildings in Datong County might sustain some damage should the scenario earthquake occur. This research can provide reliable ground motion input for urban earthquake damage simulation and seismic design in Datong County. Growing the dataset of small earthquakes recorded in this region will facilitate the large-scale simulation of ground motions under different earthquake scenarios.     

Time series modelling of strong ground motion from multiple event earthquakes

Large earthquakes are often made up of several subevents. Thus the cumulative damage is higher than for single event earthquakes. Many procedures have been developed to simulate earthquake ground motion occurring from a single energy release; however, procedures to model accelerograms with several periods of strong shaking and to relate the modelling parameters to physical variables have not been developed.In this research, a database of strong motion accelerograms from multiple event earthquakes (including the 1978 Miyagiken-Oki earthquake) the 1968 Tokachi-Oki earthquake, the 1983 Nihonkai-Chubu earthquake, and the 1985 Michoacan earthquake) was modelled by an ARMA process, after first processing the records with multivariate variance and frequency stabilizing transformations. The modelling parameters were related to the time, magnitude and location of each subevent and to the site conditions using a regression analysis.     

Physically compliant,conditionally simulated spatially variable seismic ground motions for performance‐based design

The performance‐based design of lifeline systems requires spatially variable seismic excitations at the structures' supports that are consistent with prescribed seismic ground motion characteristics and an appropriate spatial variability model—such motions can be obtained through conditional simulation. This work revisits the concept of conditional simulation and critically examines the conformity of the generated motions with the characteristics of the target random field and observations from data recorded at dense instrument arrays. Baseline adjustment processing techniques for recorded earthquake accelerograms are extended to fit the requirements of simulated and conditionally simulated spatially variable ground motions. Emphasis is placed on the use of causal vs acausal filtering in the data processing. Acceleration, velocity and displacement time histories are evaluated in two example applications of the approach. The first application deals with a prescribed synthetic time history that incorporates nonstationarity in the amplitude and frequency content of the motions and depends on earthquake magnitude, source–site distance and local soil conditions; this example results in zero residual displacements. The second application considers as prescribed time history a recording in the vicinity of a fault and yields nonzero residual displacements. It is shown that the conditionally simulated time histories preserve the characteristics of the prescribed ones and are consistent with the target random field. The results of this analysis suggest that the presented methodology provides a useful tool for the generation of spatially variable ground motions to be used in the performance‐based design of lifeline systems. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of accelerograms recorded in the source zone of the 1995 Neftegorsk earthquake and computation of synthetic accelerograms

The strongest Neftegorsk earthquake, which occurred in 1995 in the northern part of the Sakhalin Island, was studied by the Epicentral Seismological Expedition, Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences. The performed observations yielded the unique accelerograms of strong aftershocks, which were then applied as a basis for detailed analyses. The recorded accelerations were in satisfactory compliance with the current ground motion relations. The design spectra developed on the basis of analyzed records were proposed as an example. The synthetic accelerograms were calculated using the records of the strongest aftershocks for two modal earthquakes by the empirical Green’s function technique. This technique can be recommended for practical application as the most physically substantiated method taking into account all regional features.     

断层附近强地震动半经验合成方法的研究

本文对利用经验格林函数法合成断层附近的强地面运动等问题做了初步研究。基于云南施甸5.9级主震和余震强震观测记录和本文提出的移动窗技术对断层附近的主震记录进行了分析识别，发现大震的Asperity(凸凹体）与小震在时程和Fourier幅值谱上存在一定程度的相似性。这种相似性从理论上，可以解释为这种小震视为大震Asperity的“种子”，大震的Asperity是由这些“种子”发育而成的。在此基础上合成了云南施甸距震中仅为1.1公里的主震记录，同时也提出以断层附近小震作为经验格林函数存在着一些缺陷。     

Stochastic procedure for the simulation of synthetic main shock‐aftershock ground motion sequences

According to the current seismic codes, structures are designed to resist the first damaging earthquake during their service life. However, after a strong main shock, a structure may still face damaging aftershocks. The main shock‐aftershock sequence may result in major damage and eventually the collapse of a structure. Current studies on seismic hazard mainly focus on the modeling and simulation of main shocks. This paper proposes a 3‐step procedure to generate main shock‐aftershock sequences of pairs of horizontal components of a ground motion at a site of interest. The first step generates ground motions for the main shock using either a source‐based or site‐based model. The second step generates sequences of aftershocks' magnitudes, locations, and times of occurrence using either a fault‐based or seismicity‐based model. The third step simulates pairs of ground motion components using a new empirical model proposed in this paper. We develop prediction equations for the controlling parameters of a ground motion model, where the predictors are the site condition and the aftershock characteristics from the second step. The coefficients in the prediction equations and the correlation between the model parameters (of the 2 horizontal components of 1 record and of several records in 1 sequence) are estimated using a database of aftershock accelerograms. A backward stepwise deletion method is used to simplify the initial candidate prediction equations and avoid overfitting the data. The procedure, based on easily identifiable engineering parameters, is a useful tool to incorporate effects of aftershocks into seismic analysis and design.     

2020年10月22日四川北川MS4.7地震强震动特征分析

2020年10月22日11时03分37秒四川省绵阳市北川县发生MS4.7地震,四川强震动台网与预警烈度速报台网在震区建成较密集的台站,获取了532组三分量加速度记录,有助于开展区域地震动衰减和地震动特征研究.本文对强震记录进行常规处理后计算出强震动记录的相关参数,利用克里金插值方法得到地震动峰值加速度PGA和峰值速度PGV的空间分布图,长轴呈北西—南东方向.分析强震动记录PGA、PGV随距离的衰减规律,与常用衰减关系预测值进行对比,此次地震PGA的衰减特性与俞言祥和汪素云(2006)提出的中国西部地区水平向基岩加速度衰减关系有较好的一致性.北川MS4.7地震获得的密集强震动记录为建立区域衰减关系,以及开展基于经验格林函数方法(EGFM)再现大震强地震动场展布等研究提供了重要的数据支撑.     

汶川地震烈度分布与震源过程相关性的初步研究

汶川地震造成了靠近发震断层附近地区的工程结构的严重破坏,由此导致了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失。汶川地震后,虽然目前还没有得到完整的强震记录,但是作为震害宏观描述的地震烈度,在一定程度上反应了汶川地震近断层地震动与震源过程之间的相关性,如近断层地震动的方向性效应和上盘效应。本文对此做了一些定性的分析,认为高烈度区的分布与震源机制和破裂过程存在一定的相关性,并且在近断层地区很可能存在着较为显著的方向性效应和上盘效应。更详细的研究还需要在得到足够的强震记录后才能进行。     

Enrichment of seismic ground motion databases using Karhunen–Loève expansion

Best estimate seismic analysis are generally based on time‐domain simulations of structural responses. The seismic load is then modeled by a stochastic process representing ground motion. For this purpose, the analyst can use recorded accelerograms or work with synthetically generated ones. The number of ground motion time‐histories available for a given scenario and site condition is limited and generally not sufficient for carrying out more advanced probabilistic structural response analysis. It is then necessary to have at our disposal methods that allow for generating synthetic accelerograms that realistically characterize earthquake ground motions. However, most of the methods proposed in literature for generating synthetic accelerograms do not accurately reproduce the natural variability of ground motion parameters (such as PGA, cumulative absolute velocity, and Arias intensity) observed for recorded time histories. In this paper, we introduce a new method for generating synthetic ground motion, based on Karhunen‐Loève decomposition and a non‐Gaussian stochastic model. The proposed method enables the structural analyst to simulate ground motion time histories featuring the properties mentioned above. To demonstrate its capability, we study the influence of the simulation method on different ground motion parameters and on soil response spectra. We finally compute fragility curves to illustrate the practical application of the proposed method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Empirical correlations between cumulative absolute velocity and spectral accelerations from NGA ground motion database

Considering multiple ground motion intensity measures is important in seismic hazard analysis and ground motion selection process. Using the NGA strong motion database and recently developed ground-motion prediction models, empirical correlations are developed between cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) and spectral accelerations (Sa) at periods from 0.01 to 10 s. The CAV–Sa correlations at long periods are significantly influenced by rupture distance due to modification of the frequency content and duration of the acceleration time history through travel path. Similarly, the presence of strong velocity pulses in near-source ground motions also affects the correlations at moderate to long periods. On the other hand, the correlations are not particularly sensitive to the earthquake magnitude, orientation of the ground-motion recordings, selection of ground-motion prediction models and local site conditions. Piecewise linear fitting equations are provided to quantify the correlations for various cases. The application of the CAV–Sa correlations in ground motion selection process is also discussed.