Climate response to astronomical forcing

Power spectrum analysis of the oxygen isotopic records of deep-sea cores cannot be directly used for correlation studies with the astronomical forcing functions because of the rapidity of the major deglaciations. The ensuing step change in the isotopic curves, repeated at somewhat irregular intervals, produces, in fact, substantial spectral energy in a wide frequency band that includes the frequencies of the precessional parameters.The isotopic fluctuations within the ramp sections of a composite core curve have been found to be highly correlated with the precessional parameters, indicating a linear response of climate to these parameters and verifying, at the same time, the essential correctness of the time scale adopted.A direct correlation of eccentricity with the major glacial/interglacial cycle is doubtful because some of the eccentricity minima have absolute values of the same order as some of the maxima, while the isotopic amplitude remains essentially constant. In order to test if the major cycle could be related to a terrestrial parameter exhibiting an asymmetric relaxation fluctuation, we have added an asymmetric saw-tooth function to an artificial curve constructed from the precessional parameters on the basis of optimal response amplitude. The curve thus generated reproduces the original isotopic curve with a similarity sufficient to warrant a close search and analysis of the relaxation process.     

Visualization of aquifer response to periodic forcing

Many studies of periodic forcing and response in aquifers have focused on describing the induced fluctuations in hydraulic head, without much consideration of the time-dependent flows. Visualization techniques presented in this paper can be applied to obtain a more physically intuitive impression of groundwater motion in aquifers that undergo periodic fluctuations of hydraulic head. The concepts of velocity ellipse and displacement ellipse are introduced as methods for visualizing oscillatory flows associated with individual forcing modes. Cyclical trajectories illustrate the potential complexity of flow paths that can arise due to superposition of modal responses. The full periodic motion that results due to superposition of the mean flow and modal flows is visualized using streaklines. An animated time series of streaklines provides an intuitive impression of the flow and affords insight into apparent dispersion phenomenon that can arise due to periodic fluctuations in both the strength and direction of groundwater flow. Electronic animations are available from the authors.     

Spatio-temporal characteristics of aerosol distribution over Tibetan Plateau and numerical simulation of radiative forcing and climate response

In this paper we have analyzed aerosol distribution over the Tibetan Plateau by using the global monthly mean satellite data of Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II). The results are as follows: (1) Stratospheric aerosol optical depth can oscillate in the four seasons. It means that the aerosol optical depth is the thickest in winter and a little thinner in spring and the thinnest in summer and then a little thicker in autumn. We have found that the oscillation is caused by the oscillation of tropopause in different seasons. (2) Stratospheric aerosol comes mainly from sprays of volcano. After eruption of Mount Pinatubo aerosol optical depth in stratosphere over the Tibetan Plateau increases 10 times compared with before. (3) The characteristic of aerosol vertical distribution over the Tibetan Plateau is that there is an extremely high value at the altitude of 70 hPa. The most interesting thing is that the extremely high value can oscillate between 50 hPa and 100 hPa. We have verified that the oscillation is a unique characteristic over the Tibetan Plateau by comparing it with South China and North China. Then the radiative forcing and regional climate response over the Tibetan Plateau of aerosol are investigated. We have discovered such things as followed by: (1) The radiative forcing is positive because the parameterized aerosol optical depth is less than 0.14 which is the optical depth of the uniform background boundary aerosol layer. It is 0–3 W/m² in January and 0–4 W/m² in April and less than 3 W/m² in July and 3–6 W/m² in October. (2) Ground temperature rises 0.1–0.2 K in October which is the biggest increasing magnitude, and 0.01–0.02 in July which is the smallest one. It rises about 0.05-0.01 K in January and April. (3) Air temperature near the earth’s surface and the one at the altitude of 500 hPa rise too, but the increasing magnitude is less than the former one.

     

Hillslope response to tectonic forcing in threshold landscapes

Hillslopes are thought to poorly record tectonic signals in threshold landscapes. Numerous previous studies of steep landscapes suggest that large changes in long‐term erosion rate lead to little change in mean hillslope angle, measured at coarse resolution. New LiDAR‐derived topography data enables a finer examination of threshold hillslopes. Here we quantify hillslope response to tectonic forcing in a threshold landscape. To do so, we use an extensive cosmogenic beryllium‐10 (¹⁰Be)‐based dataset of catchment‐averaged erosion rates combined with a 500 km² LiDAR‐derived 1 m digital elevation model to exploit a gradient of tectonic forcing and topographic relief in the San Gabriel Mountains, California. We also calibrate a new method of quantifying rock exposure from LiDAR‐derived slope measurements using high‐resolution panoramic photographs. Two distinct trends in hillslope behavior emerge: below catchment‐mean slopes of 30°, modal slopes increase with mean slopes, slope distribution skewness decreases with increasing mean slope, and bedrock exposure is limited; above mean slopes of 30°, our rock exposure index increases strongly with mean slope, and the prevalence of angle‐of‐repose debris wedges keeps modal slopes near 37°, resulting in a positive relationship between slope distribution skewness and mean slope. We find that both mean slopes and rock exposure increase with erosion rate up to 1 mm/a, in contrast to previous work based on coarser topographic data. We also find that as erosion rates increase, the extent of the fluvial network decreases, while colluvial channels extend downstream, keeping the total drainage density similar across the range. Our results reveal important textural details lost in 10 or 30 m resolution digital elevation models of steep landscapes, and highlight the need for process‐based studies of threshold hillslopes and colluvial channels. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sediment particle selectivity and its response to overland flow hydraulics within grass strips

Particle selectivity plays an important role in clarifying sediment transport processes in vegetative filter strips (VFS). 10-m long grass strips at slopes of 5° and 15° were subjected to a series of sediment-laden inflows experiments with different particle sizes to investigate the sediment transport and its response to overland flow hydraulics. The inflow sediments came from local soil, river-bed sand, and mixed, with median particle size d₅₀ of 39.9, 207.9 and 77.4 μm, respectively. Three independent repeated experiments were carried for each treatment. The results show that when the sediment trapping lasted for a certain length of time, the re-entrainment of some small-sized particles was greater than the deposition; that is, net loss occurred, which was not erosion of the original soil. Net loss of particles is mainly determined by the particle diameter. The coarser the inflow sediment particles and/or the steeper the slope, the coarser the particles can be net lost. Deposited sediment causes the VFS bed surface to become smooth and hydraulic resistance decrease exponentially. Unit stream power P is more suitable than shear stress τ of overland flow to be used to describe the process of sediment particle transport in VFS. The relationship between P and d₅₀ of outflow sediment is very consistent with the form of power function with a constant term. These results are helpful to understand the physical process of sediment transport on vegetation hillslopes.     

Structure in fluctuations of large-scale soil moisture climate due to external random forcing and internal feedbacks

Large-scale fields of soil moisture are forced by atmospheric precipitation and radiative forcing. When these forcing factors are themselves influenced by surface and soil moisture processes, the result is a nonlinear land-atmosphere system with inherent feedback mechanisms that may strongly modulate variability in climate. Given such feedbacks, simple randomness in the forcing factors may be manifested as a complex statistical signature in the surface hydrology. In this paper, we investigate the impacts of non-Gaussian and colored-noise on the probability distribution of soil moisture resulting from the statistical-dynamical land-atmosphere interaction model of Rodriguez-Iturbe et al. (1991). Persistence of hydroclimatologic anomalies as characterized by the correlation time scale of soil moisture is discussed.     

Structure in fluctuations of large-scale soil moisture climate due to external random forcing and internal feedbacks

Large-scale fields of soil moisture are forced by atmospheric precipitation and radiative forcing. When these forcing factors are themselves influenced by surface and soil moisture processes, the result is a nonlinear land-atmosphere system with inherent feedback mechanisms that may strongly modulate variability in climate. Given such feedbacks, simple randomness in the forcing factors may be manifested as a complex statistical signature in the surface hydrology. In this paper, we investigate the impacts of non-Gaussian and colored-noise on the probability distribution of soil moisture resulting from the statistical-dynamical land-atmosphere interaction model of Rodriguez-Iturbe et al. (1991). Persistence of hydroclimatologic anomalies as characterized by the correlation time scale of soil moisture is discussed.     

The response of idealized aquifer/river systems to climate change

Abstract

A study of the effect of changes in climate on aquifer storage and river recharge using a simple model of an idealized aquifer/river system shows the combined influence of aquifer properties and climate change scenario on the system response. The study shows that changes in the seasonal distribution of recharge may have a critical effect on low flows in rivers supported by baseflow. However, rivers supported by slowly responding aquifers may show a considerable delay in response to climate change allowing an opportunity for water resources planning over an extended period.     

Runoff response to multiple land-use changes and climate perturbations

Runoff response to multiple land-use changes and climate perturbations is distinct, and the main influencing factors vary significantly in different regions. However, few have simultaneously considered the effects of multiple land use changes (vegetation cover changes, terraces and check-dams construction, and urban expansion) and climatic perturbations (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature) on runoff and constructed separate expressions for distinct study areas. This article attempted to determine the main influencing factors of runoff according to the fitting function in the eight subregions of the middle Yellow River (MYR), construct the expressions between the controlling parameter in the Budyko framework and the main factors, and quantify the contribution of climate factors and land use changes to runoff by combining the elasticity coefficient in each subregion. The results indicated that climate factors and land use changes could significantly impact controlling parameters, and there were differences between regions. Climate change promoted an increase in runoff, while land use change promoted its reduction, and the reduction value outweighed its increase. In terms of land use changes, increasing vegetation coverage could suppress runoff reduction, while constructing terraces and check-dams could promote its reduction. The urban expansion benefited runoff collection and, therefore, could suppress runoff reduction. Its absolute contribution rate exceeded 200% in apparent urban expansion areas. In addition, the contribution rates of land use to runoff changes in the northern arid and semi-arid regions were significantly higher than those in the southern, and they were more sensitive to land use changes. The research results can provide a reference for analysing the runoff response to different land-use changes and can further advance people's understanding of the water cycle.     

Shallow groundwater temperature response to climate change and urbanization

Groundwater temperatures, especially in shallow (quaternary) aquifers respond to ground surface temperatures which in turn depend on climate and land use. Groundwater temperatures, therefore, are modified by climate change and urban development. In northern temperate climate regions seasonal temperature cycles penetrate the ground to depths on the order of 10–15 m. In this paper, we develop and apply analytic heat transfer relationships for 1-D unsteady effective diffusion of heat through an unsaturated zone into a flowing aquifer a short distance below the ground surface. We estimate how changes in land use (urban development) and climate change may affect shallow groundwater temperatures. We consider both long-term trends and seasonal cycles in surface temperature changes. Our analysis indicates that a fully urbanized downtown area at the latitude of Minneapolis/St. Paul is likely to have a groundwater temperature that is nearly 3 °C warmer than an undeveloped agricultural area at the same geographic location. Pavements are the main cause of this change. Data collected by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) in the St. Cloud, MN area confirm that land use influences groundwater temperatures. Ground surface temperatures are also projected to rise in response to global warming. In the extreme case of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (2 × CO₂ climate scenario), groundwater temperatures in the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area could therefore rise by up to 4 °C. Compounding a land use change from “undeveloped” to “fully urbanized” and a 2 × CO₂ climate scenario, groundwater temperatures are projected to rise by about 5 °C at the latitude of Minneapolis/St. Paul.     

Transport of variable-density solute plumes in beach aquifers in response to oceanic forcing

A comprehensive numerical study was undertaken to investigate transport of a variable-density, conservative solute plume in an unconfined coastal aquifer subject to high and low frequency oceanic forcing. The model combined variable-density saturated flow for groundwater and solute transport, and wave hydrodynamics from a 2D Navier–Stokes solver. A sinusoidal tidal signal was specified by implementing time-varying heads at the seaward boundary. The solute plume behavior was investigated under different oceanic forcing conditions: no forcing, waves, tide, and combined waves and tide. For each forcing condition, four different injected solute densities (freshwater, brackish water, seawater, brine) were used to investigate the effects of density on the transport of the injected plume beneath and across the beach face. The plume’s low-order spatial moments were computed, viz., mass, centroid, variance and aspect ratio. The results confirmed that both tide- and wave-forcing produce an upper saline plume beneath the beach face in addition to the classical saltwater wedge. For the no-forcing and tide-only cases (during rising tides), an additional small circulation cell below the beach face was observed. Oceanic forcing affects strongly the solute plume’s flow path, residence time and discharge rate across the beach face, as well as its spreading. For the same oceanic forcing, solute plumes with different densities follow different trajectories from the source to the discharge location (beach face). The residence time and plume spreading increased with plume density. It was concluded that simulations that neglect the effect of waves or tides cannot reproduce accurately solute plume dispersion and also, in the case of coasts with small waves or tides, the solute residence time in the aquifer.     

Hydrogeological response to climate change in alpine hillslopes

Climate change threatens water resources in snowmelt‐dependent regions by altering the fraction of snow and rain and spurring an earlier snowmelt season. The bulk of hydrological research has focused on forecasting response in streamflow volumes and timing to a shrinking snowpack; however, the degree to which subsurface storage offsets the loss of snow storage in various alpine geologic settings, i.e. the hydrogeologic buffering capacity, is still largely unknown. We address this research need by assessing the affects of climate change on storage and runoff generation for two distinct hydrogeologic settings present in alpine systems: a low storage granitic and a greater storage volcanic hillslope. We use a physically based integrated hydrologic model fully coupled to a land surface model to run a base scenario and then three progressive warming scenarios, and account for the shifts in each component of the water budget. For hillslopes with greater water retention, the larger storage volcanic hillslope buffered streamflow volumes and timing, but at the cost of greater reductions in groundwater storage relative to the low storage granite hillslope. We found that the results were highly sensitive to the unsaturated zone retention parameters, which in the case of alpine systems can be a mix of matrix or fracture flow. The presence of fractures and thus less retention in the unsaturated zone significantly decreased the reduction in recharge and runoff for the volcanic hillslope in climate warming scenarios. This approach highlights the importance of incorporating physically based subsurface flow in to alpine hydrology models, and our findings provide ways forward to arrive at a conceptual model that is both consistent with geology and hydrologic principles. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mediating stream baseflow response to climate change: The role of basin storage

Inter‐basin differences in streamflow response to changes in regional hydroclimatology may reflect variations in storage characteristics that control the retention and release of water inputs. These aspects of storage could mediate a basin's sensitivity to climate change. The hypothesis that temporal trends in stream baseflow exhibit a more muted reaction to changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration for basins with greater storage was tested on the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) in Southern Ontario, Canada. Long‐term (>25 years) baseflow trends for 16 basins were compared to corresponding trends in precipitation amount and type and in potential evapotranspiration as well as shorter trends in groundwater levels for monitoring wells on the ORM. Inter‐basin differences in storage properties were characterized using physiographic, hydrogeologic, land use/land cover, and streamflow metrics. The latter included the slope of the basin's flow duration curve and basin dynamic storage. Most basins showed temporal increases in baseflow, consistent with limited evidence of increases and decreases in regional precipitation and snowfall: precipitation ratio, respectively, and recent increases in groundwater recharge along the crest of the ORM. Baseflow trend magnitude was uncorrelated to basin physiographic, hydrogeologic, land use/land cover, or flow duration curve characteristics. However, it was positively related to a basin's dynamic storage, particularly for basins with limited coverage of open water and wetlands. The dynamic storage approach assumes that a basin behaves as a first‐order dynamical system, and extensive open water and wetland areas in a basin may invalidate this assumption. Previous work suggested that smaller dynamic storage was linked to greater damping of temporal variations in water inputs and reduced interannual variability in streamflow regime. Storage and release of water inputs to a basin may assist in mediating baseflow response to temporal changes in regional hydroclimatology and may partly account for inter‐basin differences in that response. Such storage characteristics should be considered when forecasting the impacts of climate change on regional streamflow.     

Stream temperature response to climate change and water diversion activities

Stream temperature is an important control of many in-stream processes. There is rising concern about increases in stream temperature with projected climate changes and human-related water activities. Here, we investigate the responses to climate change and water diversions in Eel River basin. The increase in stream temperatures is considered to be the result of changes in air temperature, the proportion of base flow and the amount of stream flow derived from historical and future simulations using the integrated VIC hydrologic model and ANN stream temperature model. The results show that stream temperature will increase throughout the basin in the future under two climate change representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) and will also be influenced by the water diversion activities schedules. Specifically, the stream temperature increases, in the late twenty-first century under RCP8.5 scenarios, from 1.20 to 2.40 °C in summer and from 0.58–3.46 °C in winter respectively; Water diversion activities in Eel River Basin can increase nearly 1 °C in stream temperature. Therefore, both climate change and water diversion activities can substantially cause the rise of more than 2 °C in stream temperature. In conclusion, stream temperature is mainly sensitive to the proportion of base flow in summer, but also the change of the amount of stream flow in winter in our case study area. In addition, it should be noted that the low intensity irrigation schedule has lower impacts on increasing stream temperature, whereas the high intensity irrigation schedule will further exacerbate the rise of stream temperature. Understanding the different impacts of climate change scenarios and irrigation schedules on stream temperature can help identify climate-sensitive regions, climate-sensitive seasons and water diversion schedules as well as assist in planning for climate change and social adaptive management.     

On the response of Black Sea level to external forcing: altimeter data and numerical modelling

In this work, we address the Black Sea setup of Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), and in particular some model enhancements associated with the most important characteristic of ocean dynamics in this semi-enclosed basin, that is the sea-level variability and its relationship with water cycles and wind. Forcing data are presented in detail and compared with previously used coarser-resolution data. One emphasis in this paper is on the statistical analyses of forcing data and outputs from simulations with a focus on the sea level and its change. Numerical simulations are carried out as free run, and alternatively, altimeter data assimilation based on displacement of water properties in the pycnocline is used. Comparisons between the two runs identify the robustness of circulation driven by water balance and winter intensification. Problems in the model to replicate the redistribution of water properties between the two sub-basins in free-run mode are also discussed, which are observed during years with extreme climatic conditions.     

Modeling of climate tendencies in Arctic seas based on atmospheric forcing EOF decomposition

Ocean Dynamics - The article analyzes the results of the EOF decomposition of climatic data and assesses the role of its components in the formation of climatic ice tendencies of recent decades....     

The dynamic of vegetation coverage and its response to climate factors in Inner Mongolia, China

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is widely recognized as a good indicator of vegetation productivity. Diagnosing the NDVI trend and understanding climatic factors influences on NDVI can predict the productivity changes under different climatic scenarios. This paper examined NDVI dynamic and its response to climate factors during a 10 year period (1998–2008) in Inner Mongolia. The main findings are as follows: (1) The NDVI multi-scale characters can be revealed well by wavelet transform, and the average NDVI and the NDVI amplitude show a gradually decreased trend from northeast to southwest in Inner Mongolia during the past 10 years, furthermore, this trend is consistent with the heat and water distribution caused by latitude difference in north–south direction and Asia monsoon effect in east–west direction. (2) The relation between NDVI and temperature is the most close, followed by precipitation, sunshine hours and relative humidity. Different vegetation cover types show different strengths in correlation between NDVI and climate variables with the correlation values decreasing from forest, meadow steppe to desert steppe in whole. (3) The precipitation and temperature have the same change cycle, both nearly 290 days in the 20 selected stations. The NDVI has the same change cycle with the precipitation and temperature or either 10 days earlier or later than precipitation and temperature, which supports the significant correlation between NDVI and its climatic factors from a new perspective. The nearly 290 days change cycle implies that the vegetation growth cycle is nearly 10 months and there are no obvious differences change cycles in different vegetations. (4) Vegetation dynamic is significantly correlated to the temperature and precipitation at the time scale of 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, and 320-day, respectively, and the S3 scale (i.e., the time scale of 80-day), nearly 3 months (one season), is most significant and suitable for evaluating the vegetation dynamic to climatic factors.     

Terrestrial ecosystem scenarios and their response to climate change in Eurasia

During the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI), simulating the change trends of terrestrial ecosystems in Eurasia under different climate scenarios is a key ecological issue. The HLZ ecosystem model was improved to simulate the changes in the spatial distribution and types of terrestrial ecosystems in Eurasia based on the climate data from Eurasian meteorological stations from 1981 to 2010 and the data from the RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios released by CMIP5 from 2010 to 2100. Ecological diversity and patch connectivity index models were used to quantitatively calculate the future changes in ecological diversity and patch connectivity of terrestrial ecosystems in Eurasia. The results show that(1) cold temperate wet forest, cool temperate moist forest and desert are the major terrestrial ecosystem types and cover 36.71% of the total area of Eurasia.(2) Under all three scenarios, the polar/nival area would shrink more than other terrestrial ecosystem types and would decrease by 26.75 million km2 per decade on average, and the subpolar/alpine moist tundra would have the fastest decreasing rate of 10.49% per decade on average from 2010 to 2100.(3) Under the RCP85 scenario, the rate of terrestrial ecosystem changes will be greater than that under the other two scenarios, and the subpolar/alpine moist tundra would exhibit the fastest decreasing rate of 10.88% per decade from 2010 to 2100.(4) The ecological diversity would generally show decreasing trends and decrease by 0.09%, 0.13% and 0.16% per decade on average under the RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios,respectively.(5) The patch connectivity would first increase and then decrease under all three scenarios. In general, the trends of the changes in terrestrial ecosystems would show an obvious difference in the different regions throughout the BRI area.